ECONOMIC & ENERGY INDICATORS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 25, 2011
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: May 22, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
Directorate of
Intelligence
Economic & Energy
Indicators
22 May 1987
DI EEI 87-011
22 May 1987
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798ROO0600070006-5
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798ROO0600070006-5
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
Economic & Energy
Indicators
Economic Industrial Production I
Gross National Product I
Consumer Prices I
Money Supply 2
Unemployment Rate 2
Foreign Trade 3
Current Account Balance 3
Export Prices in US $ 4
Import Prices in US $ 4
Exchange Rate Trends 5
Money Market Rates 5
Agricultural Prices 6
Industrial Materials Prices 7
World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
Crude Oil Prices 9
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 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
West Germany -2.3 -3.2 0.3 3.3 3.9
France -2.6 -1.5 1.1 1.7 0.8
United Kingdom -3.9 2.1 3.9 1.3 4.7
Italy -1.6 -3.1 -3.2 3.3 1.2
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
2.2
-4.5
-0.1
-30.2
0.7
5.4
-5.1
-21.3
43.1
1.8
5.6
0.5
3.3
21.3
2.7
-12.9
7.3
25.7
-5.8
Canada
0.5
-10.0
5.3
8.8
4.3
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
West Germany
-0.2
-1.0
1.8
3.0
2.5
2.4
-3.0 10.7 3.0 -0.6
France
0.2
1.8
0.7
1.5
1.4
-0.8 4.3
United Kingdom
-1.4
1.9
3.5
2.8
3.4
2.6
4.4 2.9 2.9 2.8
Italy
0.2
-0.5
-0.2
2.8
2.3
-1.7 11.1 1.6
Canada
3.3
-4.4
3.1
5.5
4.0
3.1
2.6 2.9 0.8 0.2
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
France
13.3
12.0
9.5
7.7
5.8
2.5
3.2 9.8 3.0 0.6
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
6.1
3.4
6.5 6.7 3.4 1.6
Italy
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
8.6
6.1
3.2 5.0 2.2 4.7
Canada
12.5
10.8
5.8
4.3
4.0
4.2
4.9 2.0 3.1 5.6
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 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
Money Supply, M-1 a
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States b 7.1 6.6
11.2
7.0
9.2
13.4
18.2
12.3
-0.6
3.3
Japan, 3.7 7.1
3.7
2.8
5.0
6.9
9.3
20.6
24.3
-0.4
West Germany 1.1 3.6
10.2
3.2
4.5
9.9
8.6
3.2
10.0
France 12.2 13.9
10.3
8.0
0.3
35.2
United Kingdom NA NA
13.0
15.3
38.2
7.8
Italy 11.2 11.6
15.1
12.3
13.7
10.1
27.1
Canada 3.8 0.7
10.1
3.4
4.2
4.9
14.7
5.9
41.8
-2.1
a Based on amounts in national currency units.
b Including M1-A and M1-B.
Unemployment Rate a
United States 7.5 9.6
9.4
7.4
7.1
6.9
6.7
6.6
6.6
6.5
Japan 2.2 2.4
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.8
2.8
3.0
2.9
West Germany 5.6 7.7
9.2
9.1
9.3
8.9
8.7
8.7
8.8
8.9
France 7.6 8.4
8.6
9.8
10.2
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7
10.8
United Kingdom 10.0 11.6
10.7
11.1
11.3
11.6
11.4
11.3
11.1
11.0
Italy 8.4 9.1
9.9
9.9
10.1
Canada 7.5 11.1
11.9
11.3
10.5
9.6
9.4
9.7
9.6
9.6
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
Foreign Trade a
United States b
Exports
233.5
212.3
200.6
218.8
212.7
216.7
54.5
55.5
17.1
19.1
Imports
261.0
244.0
258.4
326.3
346.2
370.1
93.4
97.1
26.2
33.4
Balance
-27.5
-31.6
-57.9
-107.6
-133.5
-153.4
-38.9
-41.7
-9.0
-14.3
Japan
Exports
149.6
138.2
145.5
168.0
173.8
205.4
54.2
52.0
18.5
18.2
Imports
129.5
119.6
114.0
124.1
118.0
112.9
28.0
26.0
8.8
8.6
Balance
20.1
18.6
31.4
43.9
55.8
92.5
26.2
26.0
9.7
9.6
West Germany
Exports
175.4
176.4
169.5
171.9
184.4
243.9
63.1
64.9
21.4
23.7
Imports c
163.4
155.3
152.9
153.1
159.0
191.3
48.0
50.6
16.6
17.5
Balance
11.9
21.1
16.6
18.8
25.4
52.6
15.1
14.3
4.8
6.2
France
Exports
106.3
96.4
95.1
97.5
101.9
125.0
32.2
32.5
10.9
12.2
Imports
115.6
110.5
101.0
100.3
104.5
124.9
32.1
32.0
11.3
12.2
Balance
-9.3
-14.0
-5.9
-2.8
-2.6
0.1
0
0.4
-0.4
-0.1
United Kingdom
Exports
102.5
97.1
92.0
93.7
101.0
106.8
26.1
27.7
9.3
10.6
Imports
94.6
93.1
93.3
99.4
103.6
118.9
30.4
31.4
10.1
10.9
Balance
7.9
4.0
-1.3
-5.7
-2.6
-12.1
-4.3
-3.7
-0.8
-0.3
Italy
Exports
75.4
73.9
72.8
73.5
79.0
97.8
24.7
25.5
8.6
8.3
Imports
91.2
86.7
80.7
84.5
91.0
99.9
24.3
25.7
8.9
9.1
Balance
-15.9
-12.8
-7.9
-11.0
-12.1
-2.1
0.4
-0.2
-0.3
-0.8
Canada
Exports
70.5
68.5
73.6
86.6
88.1
86.9
21.6
22.5
7.2
7.8
Imports
64.4
54.1
59.3
70.6
75.3
79.6
20.0
20.5
6.8
6.9
Balance
6.1
14.4
14.3
16.0
12.8
7.3
1.6
2.0
0.5
0.9
a Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
c imports are c.i.f.
United States
6.3
-8.1
-46.6
-106.5
-117.7
-140.6
-34.4
-35.3
-36.8
Japan
4.8
6.9
20.8
35.0
49.2
85.8
23.1
24.4
25.7
5.0
7.4
West Germany
-6.8
3.3
4.3
6.7
13.8
36.5
8.3
8.0
13.2
2.6
3.6
United Kingdom
15.3
8.5
4.7
1.7
4.1
-1.7
-0.1
-1.4
-1.1
0.1
0.6
Italy
-8.6
-5.7
0.6
-2.8
-4.0
1.2
5.0
Canada
-5.0
2.1
2.4
2.6
-0.4
-6.3
-1.4
-1.4
-1.6
a Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
Export Prices in US $
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
Year
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Jan
Feb
United States
9.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
-0.6
0.4
5.0
1.3
Japan
5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
-0.6
20.7
11.8
-2.6
57.9
0
West Germany
-14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
0
32.0
30.3
14.9
102.7
26.7
France
-12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
2.5
20.1
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
2.3
7.9
-7.5
-4.6
89.4
27.7
Italy
-7.8
-3.0
-4.4
-5.1
-0.3
21.9
22.2
25.0
33.5
Canada
3.9
-2.0
0.2
-0.4
-3.5
-5.0
-10.4
1.6
-19.1
78.1
Percent chang
e from pre
at an
vious period
annual rate
United States
5.3
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
-2.4
-3.3
-1.6
6.4
Japan
3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-4.3
-13.4
-11.2
-1.4
71.8
35.7
West Germany
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-1.5
9.3
6.0
7.5
100.7
16.8
France
-7.8
-7.2
-7.0
-3.8
-0.4
1.0
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-5.7
-4.5
0.5
5.1
-8.5
2.2
86.4
25.6
1.0
-5.3
-6.6
-3.7
-1.0
4.9
0
14.9
80.9
8.7
-1.1
0.6
1.0
-2.1
-2.9
-6.8
1.3
-0.5
87.9
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
Exchange Rate Trends
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
Trade-Weighted
United States
10.5
10.6
5.8
9.1
6.3
-13.3
6.9
4.0
36.6
16.4
12.2
Japan
9.3
-5.7
10.4
6.2
6.8
32.7
51.2
-16.9
40.9
-0.9
5.5
West Germany
-2.1
7.0
5.8
1.0
1.7
8.8
13.7
7.0
24.0
4.2
-8.9
France
-5.1
-6.1
-4.7
-2.1
2.7
3.7
2.4
4.1
3.6
6.5
-7.8
United Kingdom
2.5
-2.1
-5.0
-2.5
2.0
-6.6
-17.5
-23.8
-0.2
0.7
63.1
Canada
0.3
0.2
2.3
-2.3
-3.6
-6.9
-2.6
-0.6
3.5
22.3
9.9
Dollar Cost of Foreign Currency
Japan
2.7
-12.9
4.6
0
-0.3
29.3
29.1
-12.4
41.8
10.8
14.6
West Germany
-24.6
-7.2
-5.2
-11.5
-3.3
26.2
25.4
14.6
54.6
21.0
-7.4
France
-28.7
-20.8
-15.9
-14.7
-2.7
22.8
18.5
12.2
45.4
22.4
-7.5
United Kingdom
-13.2
-13.4
-13.3
-11.9
-3.0
13.2
-5.9
-14.8
67.9
20.3
64.1
Italy
-32.8
-18.8
-12.3
-15.6
-8.6
21.8
24.2
12.4
42.3
16.1
-7.6
Canada
-2.5
-2.9
0.1
-5.1
-5.4
-1.7
-0.3
-0.3
14.7
21.5
9.9
Money Market Rates
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
United Kingdom
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
Year 2d Qtr 3d Qtr 4th Qtr
16.24 12.49 9.23 10.56 8.16 6.61 6.75 6.09 5.92
a
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798ROO0600070006-5
Bananas
Fresh imported,
(Total world, $ per metric ton)
Year 3d Qtr 4th Qtr 1st Qtr Feb Mar
214.0 217.0 232.0 243.0 110.3 108.9 109.0 108.4 NA 115.1 NA
Australia
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
United States
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
Cocoa (0 per pound)
89.8
74.3
92.1
106.2
98.7
89.3
90.8
87.9
86.0
84.8
87.2
Coffee ($ per pound)
1.28
1.40
1.32
1.44
1.43
1.71
1.61
1.47
1.12
1.15
1.00
Corn
(US #3 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
150
123
148
150
125
101
89
84
82
81
85
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US 0/lb.)
72.69
74.48
85.71
63.91
57.87
47.52
38.91
52.06
NA
NA
NA
Palm Oil
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
571
445
502
730
501
257
208
288
330
330
313
US (No. 2, milled,
4% c.i.f. Rotterdam)
632
481
514
514
484
348
294
300
224
224
224
Thai SWR
(100% grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Soybeans
(US #2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Soybean Oil
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
507
447
527
727
571
342
294
317
309
307
305
Soybean Meal
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
Sugar
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports, spot prices ? per pound)
Tea
Average Auction (London)
(Q per pound)
Wheat
(US #2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Food Index a (1980=100)
a The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
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 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
Copper a (bar, Q per pound)
79.0
67.1
72.0
62.4
64.5
62.3
60.3
59.8
63.3
62.6
66.2
Gold ($ per troy ounce)
460.0
375.5
424.4
360.0
317.2
366.1
376.2
404.1
405.7
401.1
407.6
Lead a (? per pound)
32.9
24.7
19.3
20.0
17.7
18.4
17.6
21.5
21.3
20.9
22.2
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
82.1
79.9
73.3
69.8
68.4
65.5
65.1
64.8
64.8
68.4
64.8
Major producer
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
475.0
517.0
517.0
600.6
600.0
600.0
600.0
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
Steel Scrap d ($ per long ton)
92.0
63.1
73.2
86.4
74.4
73.4
73.8
73.9
NA
NA
NA
Tina (0 per pound)
641.4
581.6
590.9
556.6
543.2
280.8
244.9
270.4
303.1
303.5
300.8
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
18,097
13,426
10,177
10,243
10,656
6,936
6,558
4,945
6,351
6,202
7,284
US Steel
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
543.5
567.3
590.2
611.6
617.8
555.4
557.1
558.9
NA
NA
NA
Zinc a (Q per pound)
38.4
33.7
34.7
41.5
35.4
34.5
37.5
38.1
33.7
33.6
33.1
Lumber Index a
(1980= 100)
95
84
114
105
103
112
113
112
NA
124
NA
Industrial Materials Index r
85
71
82
(1980=100)
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME. As of February 1986 tin
prices from the Kuala Lumpur market.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
e Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. I heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 10 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
rThe industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
World
55,837
53,092
52,625
53,674
52,931
55,688
55,208
54,283
53,810
Non-Communist countries
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
38,692
40,886
40,248
39,328
38,855
Developed countries
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,730
14,516
14,377
14,712
14,462
United States
8,572
8,658
8,680
8,735
8,933
8,668
8,368
8,437
8,277
Canada
1,285
1,270
1,356
1,411
1,457
1,472
1,491
1,500
1,500
United Kingdom
1,811
2,094
2,299
2,535
2,533
2,508
2,479
2,586
2,555
Norway
501
518
614
700
785
841
959
1,092
1,033
Other
717
736
915
921
1,022
1,027
1,080
1,097
1,097
Non-OPEC LDCs
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,845
7,854
8,006
8,016
8,020
Mexico
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,733
2,431
2,460
2,511
2,500
Egypt
598
665
689
827
874
813
890
901
887
Other
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,238
4,610
4,656
4,604
4,633
OPEC
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,117
18,516
17,865
16,600
16,373
Algeria
803
701
699
638
645
671
662
600
600
Ecuador
211
211
236
253
280
289
274
270
260
Gabon
151
154
157
152
153
180
180
150
150
Indonesia
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,235
1,264
1,188
1,160
1,130
Iran
1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,258
1,929
1,798
2,200
2,100
Iraq
993
972
922
1,203
1,437
1,725
1,651
1,600
1,700
Kuwait b
947
663
881
912
862
1,344
1,300
1,000
950
Libya
1,137
1,183
1,076
1,073
1,069
1,137
1,000
950
950
Neutral Zone c
370
317
390
410
355
332
353
500
430
Nigeria
1,445
1,298
1,241
1,393
1,464
1,461
1,303
1,240
1,138
Qatar
405
328
295
399
302
342
358
285
250
Saudi Arabia b
9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
3,290
4,935
5,000
4,000
4,100
UAE
1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
1,146
1,331
1,213
1,135
1,115
Venezuela
2,108
1,893
1,781
1,813
1,621
1,576
1,585
1,510
1,500
Communist countries
14,235
14,282
14,397
14,417
14,239
14,802
14,960
14,955
14,955
USSR
11,800
11,830
11,864
11,728
11,350
11,754
11,920
11,920
11,920
China
2,024
2,042
2,121
2,280
2,496
2,613
2,613
2,613
2,613
Other
411
410
412
409
393
435
427
422
422
a Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
c Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
1st Qtr 2d Qtr 3d Qtr 4th Qtr Jan Feb Mar
United States a 16,058 15,296 15,184 15,708 15,726 16,056 15,864 16,172 16,463 16,382 16,388 15,876
Japan 4,444 4,204 4,193 4,349 4,123 4,728 3,656 3,817 4,654 4,772
France 1,744 1,632 1,594 1,531 1,498 1,710 1,442 1,429 1,563 1,750 1,733
United Kingdom 1,325 1,345 1,290 1,624 1,402 1,404 1,360 1,385 1,371 1,350
Italy b 1,705 1,618 1,594 1,513 1,507 1,684 1,359 1,490 1,702 1,694 1,847
Canada 1,617 1,454 1,354 1,348 1,342 1,294 1,308 1,365 1,405
Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
1st Qtr 2d Qtr 3d Qtr 4th Qtr Jan Feb Mar
United States 4,406 3,488 3,329 3,426 3,201 3,111 4,138 4,819 4,356 4,385 3,896 3,533
Japan 3,919 3,657 3,567 3,664 3,377 3,691 3,008 3,148 3,119 4,772
Crude Oil Prices
OPEC Average a 34.50 33.63 29.31 28.70 28.14 23.49 18.00 17.88 17.85
(Official Sales Price)
a F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most cases, for the producing company buy-back oil. Weighted by the volume
of production.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
Average Crude Oil Sales Prices
h11
M N M
O O~
N ^ N
The 1973 price is derived from posted prices; 1974-84 prices are derived
from OPEC official sales prices; and, beginning in 1985, prices are a
measure of average world sales prices.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
 Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/10/25: CIA-RDP88-00798R000600070006-5