(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: June 21, 2011
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: January 17, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
Directorate of
Intelligence
C
Economic & Energy
.Indicators
DI EEI 86-002
17 January 1986
Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
 Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
This publication is prepared for the use of US Government
officials, and the format, coverage, and content are designed to
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Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
 Economic & Energy
Indicators
Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
Industrial Production 1
Gross National Product 1
Consumer Prices 1
Money Supply 2
Unemployment Rate 2
Foreign Trade 3
Current Account Balance 3
Export Prices in US $ 4
Import Prices in US $ 4
Exchange Rate Trends 5
Money Market Rates 5
Agricultural Prices 6
Industrial Materials Prices 7
Energy World Crude Oil Production, Excluding Natural Gas Liquids 8
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption 9
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports 9
OPEC: Crude Oil Official Sales Price 10
OPEC: Average Crude Oil Official Sales Price (Chart) 11
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 -7.2
5.9
11.6
0.4
3.5
11.1
West Germany
-2.3
-3.2
0.3
2.4
-1.6
-3.1
-3.2
3.1
Canada
0.5
-10.0
5.3
8.8
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Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct
Nov
2.1
1.3
1.9
-2.6
11.2
-0.4
-12.9
12.5
-11.1
-2.5
12.5
0.7
20.8
11.0
7.4
1.1
-2.5
29.8
-3 /.0
0.7
4.5
11.4
1.6
8.4
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
-2.1
3.4
6.6
3.7
1.1
3.0
Japan
4.1
3.1
3.2
5.0
1.7
5.8
2.6
West Germany
-0.2
-1.0
1.6
2.7
United Kingdom
-1.4
1.9
3.3
2.4
3.0
4.9
-1.1
-0.5
-0.4
2.6
3.7
3.3
0.8
-4.4
3.3
5.0
3.6
3.9
6.7
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
United States
10.3
6.2
3.2
4.3
2.6
1.8
2.3
West Germany
6.0
5.3
3.3
2.4
United Kingdom
11.9
8.6
4.6
5.0
19.3
16.4
14.9
10.6
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Nov
Dec
3.3
4.2
2.4
6.9
2.4
1.2
2.1
2.5
-0.7
7.6
3.4
2.5
0.1
1.1
2.3
1.5
7.1
9.1
3.0
4.3
10.1
10.2
7.3
6.7
6.6
13.7
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 1 . J I '.JLII. l..
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Money Supply, M-18
Percent change from previous period
seasonally adjusted at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct
Nov
United States b
7.1
6.6
11.2
6.9
10.9
10.6
16.0
12.6
-1.6
14.2
Japan
3.7
7.1
3.0
2.9
10.0
-0.2
2.5
5.2
-15.4
-14.0
West Germany
1.1
3.6
10.3
3.3
1.4
-0.4
8.1
32.5
15.3
-11.2
France
12.2
13.9
10.0
7.7
12.3
7.3
United Kingdom
NA
NA
13.0
14.7
1.2
32.4
15.4
0.9
32.8
34.1
Italy
11.2
11.6
15.2
12.0
18.0
-0.1
11.5
21.8
Canada
3.8
0.7
10.2
3.3
3.2
4.2
12.9
21.3
21.4
15.5
a Based on amounts in national currency units.
b Including M1-A and M1-B.
Unemployment Rate a
United States
7.5
9.6
9.4
7.4
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
France
7.6
8.4
8.6
9.6
United Kingdom
10.0
11.6
12.4
12.6
Italy
8.4
9.1
9.9
10.4
Canada
7.5
11.1
11.8
11.3
Ist Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
4th Qtr
Nov
Dec
7.2
7.2
7.0
6.9
6.9
6.8
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.9
10.1
9.9
10.3
10.5
10.5
10.5
12.9
13.1
13.2
13.2
13.1
13.2
10.8
10.2
11.1
10.6
10.3
10.2
10.2
10.0
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 I l -
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Foreign Trade a
United States
6.3
-8.1
-46.0
-107.4
-24.2
-27.7
-30.5
Japan
4.8
6.9
20.8
35.0
6.8
13.3
13.3
4.9
4.8
4.5
West Germany
-6.8
3.3
4.2
6.0
1.7
3.1
2.1
1.6
2.3
1.8
France '
-4.7
-12.1
-4.9
0.9
-0.7
0.6
0
United Kingdom
15.3
8.5
4.5
1.3
-0.6
1.8
1.6
0.5
0.6
0.4
Italy
-8.6
-5.7
0.6
-3.2
-2.9
Canada
-5.0
2.1
1.4
1.9
0.5
0
-1.1
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Oct
Nov
United States b
Exports 233.5
Imports 261.0
Balance -27.5
212.3
244.0
-31.6
200.7
258.2
-57.5
217.6
325.6
-108.0
55.7
84.4
-28.7
52.6
86.4
-33.8
52.6
84.5
-31.9
17.4
27.6
-10.2
18.0
30.3
-12.3
Japan
Exports 149.6
138.2
145.5
168.1
40.5
42.6
43.6
15.6
15.9
Imports 129.5
119.6
114.0
124.1
28.9
29.5
29.4
10.5
9.8
Balance 20.1
18.6
31.4
44.0
11.6
13.1
14.2
5.1
6.1
West Germany
Exports 175.4
176.4
169.5
171.8
41.0
43.6
48.6
16.7
16.4
Imports c 163.4
155.3
152.9
153.1
36.5
37.1
41.7
14.5
14.1
Balance 11.9
21.1
16.6
18.8
4.6
6.5
6.9
2.3
2.3
France
Exports 106.3
96.4
95.1
97.5
22.5
24.4
26.1
9.7
9.5
Imports 115.6
110.5
101.0
100.3
23.6
24.7
26.8
9.6
9.6
Balance -9.3
-14.0
-5.9
-2.8
-1.1
-0.4
-0.7
0.1
-0.1
United Kingdom
Exports 102.5
97.1
92.1
93.7
22.7
25.4
25.5
9.0
9.1
Imports 94.6
93.1
93.7
99.1
24.1
25.7
26.2
9.0
9.3
Balance 7.9
4.0
-1.6
-5.3
-1.4
-0.3
-0 .7
0
-0.2
Italy
Exports 75.4
73.9
72.7
73.5
17.7
18.3
20.4
7.3
Imports 91.2
86.7
80.6
84.3
21.6
21.9
21.2
7.9
Balance -15.9
-12.8
-7.9
-10.8
-3.8
-3.6
-0 .8
-0.6
Canada
Exports 70.5
68.5
73.7
86.5
22.0
21.8
21.7
8.0
Imports 64.4
54.1
59.3
70.6
17.9
18.5
19.4
6.3
Balance 6.1
14.4
14.4
15.9
. 4.1
3.4
2.3
1.6
a Seasonally adjusted.
b Imports are customs values.
c Imports are c.i.f.
1st Qtr 2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct
Nov
a Seasonally adjusted; converted to US dollars at current market
rates of exchange.
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 1_1 I I _ l I. JII..-I.
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Export Prices in US $
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct
Nov
United States
9.2
1.5
1.0
1.4
0.3
1.9
-2.5
-2.5
-6.4
-0.6
Japan
5.5
-6.4
-2.4
0.2
-11.9
14.1
5.9
7.0
123.0
West Germany
-14.9
-2.8
-3.2
-7.1
-19.0
26.7
37.8
-18.4
125.3
23.6
France
-12.0
-5.5
-4.8
-2.9
-14.0
29.2
35.1
-20.6
United Kingdom
NA
NA
-6.2
-5.1
-16.2
57.1
29.2
-17.0
47.5
16.6
Italy
-7.8
-3.0
-4.4
-5.2
-13.4
21.6
19.2
-9.9
Canada
3.9
-2.0
-1.3
-3.7
-0.2
-7.0
6.9
-35.9
16.4
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
1st Qtr
2d Qtr
3d Qtr
Sep
Oct
Nov
United States
5.3
-2.0
-3.7
1.7
-9.6
-0.6
0
1.0
-0.3
12.3
Japan
3.6
-7.4
-5.0
-2.8
-10.9
3.1
2.6
l.4
38.5
L~
West Germany
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
-4.8
-14.4
19.6
20.8
-18.9
78.8
17.7
France
-7.8
-7.2
-7.0
-3.8
-12.0
15.7
17.5
-17.5
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 Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
Exchange Rate Trends
Money Market Rates
United States
90-day certificates of
deposit, secondary market
Japan
loans and discounts
(2 months)
West Germany
interbank loans
(3 months)
France
interbank money market
(3 months)
Percent change from previous period
at an annual rate
United Kingdom 13.85 12.24 10.12 9.91 12.98 12.61 11.67 11.50 11.65
sterling interbank loans
(3 months)
Italy
Milan interbank loans
(3 months)
Canada
finance paper (3 months)
Eurodollars
3-month deposits
Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
 Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
Bananas 214 217 232 243 110.4 111.6 110.9 NA 106.2 NA
Fresh imported,
(Total world, $ per metric ton)
Australia 112.1 108.4 110.7 101.1 100.2 93.3 93.6 99.2 100 101.3
(Boneless beef,
f.o.b. US Ports)
United States 100.0 101.4 97.6 100.9 96.6 81 80.4 96.1 98.4 99.1
(Wholesale steer beef,
midwest markets)
Cocoa (0 per pound) 89.8 74.3 92.1 106.2 99.2 96.4 98.4 100.8 97.9 102
Coffee ($ per pound) 1.28 1.40 1.32 1.44 1.44 1.42 1.33 1.57 1.56 1.75
Corn 150 123 148 150 133 133 118 117 11.8 123
(US #3 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Cotton
(World Cotton Prices, "A"
index, c.i.f. Osaka, US 0/lb.)
Palm Oil 571 445 502 730 605 606 417 369 362 390
(United Kingdom 5% bulk,
c.i.f., $ per metric ton)
US (No. 2, milled, 632 481 514 514 496 496 481 465 470 450
4% c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Thai SWR 573 362 339 310 254 243 236 263 245 290
(100% grade B
c.i.f. Rotterdam)
Soybeans 288 244 282 283 240 236 213 208 208 212
(US #2 yellow,
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
Soybean Oil 507 447 527 727 651 658 518 454 443 470
(Dutch, f.o.b. ex-mill,
$ per metric ton)
Soybean Meal 252 219 238 197 159 146 152 174 174 178
(US, c.i.f. Rotterdam
$ per metric ton)
Sugar 16.93 8.42 8.49 5.18 3.69 2.96 4.21 5.30 5.53 5.37
(World raw cane, f.o.b.
Caribbean Ports, spot prices ? per pound)
Tea 91.0. 89.9 105.2 156.6 126.9 82.8 72.3 78.1 80.2 75.5
Average Auction (London)
(? per pound)
Wheat 210 187 183 182 177 169 154 175 177 180
(US #2. DNS
c.i.f. Rotterdam, $ per metric ton)
a The food index is compiled by The Economist for 14 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-
year moving averages of imports into industrialized countries.
0
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 Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
C.,
Chrome Ore
(South Africa chemical
grade, $ per metric ton)
300.0
319.8
323.2
326
326
325
17.2
17.3
18.3
17.8
17.9
17.8
Manganese Ore
(48% Mn, $ per long ton)
82.1
79.9
73.3
69.8
69.6
68.4
68.4
67.2
67.2
67.2
Metals week,
New York dealers' price
446.0
326.7
422.6
358.2
5.9
6.3
6.1
6.1
83.7
71.9
72.7
NA
68.8
NA
501.1
541.3
571.0
NA
NA
NA
Tungsten Ore
(contained metal,
$ per metric ton)
18,097
13,426
10,177
10,243
11,515
10,974
10,648
9,488
9,659
8,866
US Steel
(finished steel, composite,
$ per long ton)
Lumber Index a
(1980=100)
95
84
114
105
Industrial Materials Index f
84.7
71.2
82.2
75.9
(1980= 100)
a Approximates world market price frequently used by major world
producers and traders, although only small quantities of these
metals are actually traded on the LME.
b S-type styrene, US export price.
e Quoted on New York market.
d Average of No. 1 heavy melting steel scrap and No. 2 bundles
delivered to consumers at Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Chicago.
e This index is compiled by using the average of 11 types of lumber
whose prices are regarded as bellwethers of US lumber construction
costs.
f The industrial materials index is compiled by The Economist for
18 raw materials which enter international trade. Commodities are
weighted by 3-year moving averages of imports into industrialized
countries.
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 r__
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World Crude Oil Production
Excluding Natural Gas Liquids
World
59,793
56,217
53,514
53,098
54,187
53,462
52,380
52,343
53,182
54,578
Non-Communist countries
45,243
41,602
38,810
38,228
39,257
38,672
37,610
37,588
38,373
39,727
Developed countries
12,859
12,886
13,276
13,864
14,302
14,704
14,617
14,643
14,905
14,845
United States
8,597
8,572
8,658
8,680
8,735
8,871
8,972
8,954
8,978
8,961
Canada
1,424
1,285
1,270
1,356
1,411
1,463
1,445
1,444
1,450
1,450
United Kingdom
1,619
1,811
2,094
2,299
2,535
2,660
2,471
2,399
2,600
2,560
Norway
528
501
518
614
700
719
728
823
840
862
Other
691
717
736
915
921
991
1,001
1,023
1,037
1,012
Non-OPEC LDCs
5,443
6,036
6,633
6,823
7,515
7,733
7,802
7,922
8,023
7,962
Mexico
1,936
2,321
2,746
2,666
2,746
2,711
2,724
2,738
2,800
2,800
Egypt
595
598
665
689
827
877
875
890
875
847
Other
2,912
3,117
3,222
3,468
3,942
4,145
4,203
4,294
4,348
4,315.
OPEC
26,941
22,680
18,901
17,541
17,440
16,235
15,191
15,023
15,445
16,920
Algeria
1,020
803
701
699
638
660
634
616
650
650
Ecuador
204
211
211
236
253
274
271
282
280
280
Gabon
175
151
154
157
152
150
150
153
160
160
Indonesia
1,576
1,604
1,324
1,385
1,466
1,152
1,167
1,203
1,070
1,050
Iran
1,662
1,381
2,282
2,492
2,187
2,097
2,299
2,335
2,200
2,400
Iraq
2,514
993
972
922
1,203
1,255
1,340
1,482
1,600
1,700
Kuwait b
1,389
947
663
881
912
914
800
800
800
900
Libya
1,830
1,137
1,183
1,076
1,073
1,051
1,057
933
1,000
1,100
Neutral Zone c
544
370
317
390
410
480
333
306
360
300
Nigeria
2,058
1,445
1,298
1,241
1,393
1,590
1,351
1,214
1,450
1,700
Qatar
471
405
328
295
399
292
297
312
295
300
Saudi Arabia b
9,631
9,625
6,327
4,867
4,444
3,659
2,731
2,564
2,800
3,600
UAE
1,702
1,500
1,248
1,119
1,097
1,123
1,120
1,193
1,225
1,225
Venezuela
2,165
2,108
1,893
1,781
1,813
1,538
1,641
1,630
1,555
1,555
Communist countries
14,550
14,615
14,704
14,870
14,930
14,790
14,770
14,755
14,809
14,851
USSR
12,030
12,180
12,250
12,330
12,230
11,920
11,870
11,866
11,920
11,962
China
2,113
2,024
2,044
2,120
2,280
2,450
2,480
2,474
2,474
2,474
Other
407
411
410
420
420
420
420
415
415
415
a Preliminary.
b Excluding Neutral Zone production, which is shown separately.
c Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
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 Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
Big Seven: Inland Oil Consumption
United States a
16,058
15,296
15,184
15,708
15,807
15,452
15,562
- 15,115
14,859
15,865
Japan
4,444
4,204
4,193
4,349
4,710
3,577
3,830
3,768
3,860
West Germany
2,120
2,024
2,009
2,012
1,993
2,034
2,242
2,013
2,230
France
1,744
1,632
1,594
1,531
1,757
1,342
1,310
1,449
1,564
1;571
United Kingdom
1,325
1,345
1,290
1,624
1,881
1,208
1,226
1,286
Italy b
1,705
1,618
1,594
1,513
1,715
1,276
1,416
1,550
1,554
1,644
Canada
1,617
1,454
1,354
1,348
1,327
1,292
1,367
1,339
a Including bunkers, refinery fuel, and losses.
b Principal products only prior to 1981.
Big Seven: Crude Oil Imports
United States
4,406
3,488
3,329
3,402
2,545
3,397
3,171
3,213
3,340
3,487
Japan
3,919
3,657
3,567
3,664
3,777
3,118
3,001
3,169
3,529
West Germany
1,591
1,451
1,307
1,335
1,419
1,265
1,233
1,259
1,303
France
1,804
1,596
1,429
1,395
1,578
1,212
1,421 ,
1,442
1,553
United Kingdom
736
565
456
482
534
518
Italy
1,816
1,710
1,532
1,507
1,453
1,328
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 Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798ROO0200210007-2
Algeria
44? API 0.10% sulfur
37.59
39.58
35.79
31.30
30.50
30.15
29.50
29.50
29.50
29.50
29.50
Ecuador
28? API 0.93% sulfur
34.42
34.50
32.96
27.59
27.50
26.82
26.50
26.15
26.15
26.15
26.15
Gabon
29? API 1.26 % sulfur
31.09
34.83
34.00
29.82
29.00
28.35
28.00
28.00
28.00
28.00
28.00
Indonesia
35? API 0.09% sulfur
30.55
35.00
34.92
29.95
29.53
28.88
28.53
28.53
28.53
28.53
28.53
Light
34? API 1.35% sulfur
34.54
36.60
31.05
28.61
28.00
28.38
28.05
28.05
28.05
28.05
28.05
Heavy
31 ? API 1.60% sulfur
33.60
35.57
29.15
27.44
27.10
27.41
27.35
27.35
27.35
27.35
27.35
Iraq C
35? API 1.95% sulfur
30.30
36.66
34.86
30.32
29.43
28.78
28.43
28.43
28.43
28.43
28.43
Kuwait
310 API 2.50% sulfur
29.84
35.08
32.30
27.68
27.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
27.30
Libya
40? API 0.22% sulfur
36.07
40.08
35.69
30.91
30.40
30.40
30.40
30.40
30.40
30.40
30.40
Nigeria
34? API 0.16% sulfur
35.50
38.48
35.64
30.22
29.12
28.24
28.37
28.37
28.37
28.37
28.37
Qatar
40? API 1.17% sulfur
37.12
34.56
29.95
29.49
28.48
28.10
28.10
28.10
28.10
28.10
28.10
Berri
39? API 1.16% sulfur
30.19
34.04
34.68
29.96
29.52
28.48
28.11
28.11
28.11
28.11
28.11
Light
34? API 1.70% sulfur
28.67
32.50
34.00
29.46
29.00
28.32
28.00
28.00
28.00
28.00
28.00
Medium
31 ? API 2.40% sulfur
28.12
31.84
32.40
27.86
27.40
27.48
27.40
27.20
27.20
27.20
27.20
Heavy
27? API 2.85% sulfur
27.67
31.13
31.00
26.46
26.00
26.50
26.50
26.00
26.00
26.00
26.00
UAE
39? API 0.75% sulfur
3,1.57
36.42
34.74
30.38
29.56
28.52
28.15
28.15
28.15
28.15
28.15
Venezuela
26? API 1.52% sulfur
28.44
32.88
32.88
28.69
27.88
27.69
27.60
27.10
27.10
27.10
27.10
F.o.b. prices set by the government for direct sales and, in most
cases, for the producing company buy-back oil.
b Weighted by the volume of production.
Beginning in 1981 the price of Kirkuk (Mediterranean) is used in
calculating the OPEC average official sales price.
Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798ROO0200210007-2
 Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
(` OPEC: Average Crude Oil Sales Price
Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
 Li. .. II I... ---L 1_ i .II .,~I. .
Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2
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Approved For Release 2011/06/21: CIA-RDP88-00798R000200210007-2