NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000500020095-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 95
• Publication Date: October 29, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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ovecror or
Central
s a In
telligence
National Intelligence Daily
Monday
29 October 1984
OCPAS/CIG.
CYv:S .47.7-486
CPAS N10 Ad-259 1Y
Copy 4 8 6
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OPEC: Contentious Session Likely .............................................. 1
USSR-Syria: Results of Assad Visit ............................................ 2
India-Sri Lanka: Tensions Over Tamils ...................................... 3
USSR: Pravda Editor Rebuked .................................................... 6
Morocco-Western Sahara: Military Developments .................... 7
Special Analyses
Greece: Papandreou Under Fire From All Sides ........................ 12
China: Significant Technology Research.. ....... _ ............ .......... _ 14
29 October 1984
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rvp aecrei
Oil Production Trends
Million b/d
OPEC available
production accordb
Oil Price Trends
US $ per barrel
Iran-Iraq
Iranian revolution war begins OPEC production accords
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1st half
1984
-Benchmark official pricer
September
1984
a Benchmark price falls $5 per barrel,
b Reflects government production ceilings.
c Actual contract sales prices for Arabian Light.
d Actual annual average.
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Although several key members of the organization have
endorsed the need for a production cut, disagreement over the
The Indonesians have suggested that a 1 to 2 million b/d cut would be
sufficient with winter around the corner, but, according to press
reports, the Algerians have indicated they will press for a deeper cut.
Although most members appear to favor taking up price differentials
realigned as part of an overall production agreement.
Nigeria's Oil Minister said yesterday that Lagos will not reduce its
1.6 million b/d output-some 300,000 above its current quota-nor
rescind its $2 per barrel price cut until market conditions warrant. The
US Embassy reports that the Nigerians believe OPEC will have to
make an attractive offer to keep them in the fold. They reportedly
insist that some accommodation will have to be made to allow them a
higher auota and assurances that they will be able to market their
crude.
Meanwhile, spot prices for Arab Light, North Sea crudes, and West
Texas Intermediate have recovered most of their decline in recent
days. Other crudes are now about $1 below official prices.
Comment: If members agree to an overall cut of 1.0 to 1.5 million b/d
and adhere to their individual quotas, spot prices should rise to near-
official levels, enabling OPEC to protect its benchmark. A deeper cut
of about 3 million b/d and strict adherence could cause spot prices to
rise sharply in coming weeks, but the Saudis would be in a position to
moderate them by meeting market requirements from inventories.
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The Soviet-Syrian communique pledged increased Soviet military
support for S ria
USSR-SYRIA: Results of Assad Visit
Syrian President Assad's visit to Moscow last week did not 25X1
resolve longstanding differences over Middle East Issues or meet
US Embassy sources in Damascus report that Moscow offered no
commitment to bail out Syria's troubled economy and urged Syria to
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Comment: The wording of the communique su ests that differences 25X1
remain over how to deal with PLO chief Arafat.____________________
US Embassy reporting indicate Soviet officials have told Arab
m assadors that the two sides disagreed over Syria's support for
He probably had only modest hopes for greater economic support.
Moscow has insisted in recent months that Syria meet certain debt
obligations and probably hopes closer Syrian ties with Gulf Arabs will
relieve pressure on the Soviets for more economic aid and provide
Moscow provides a weapon as prestigious as the new MIG-29.
be seen in the Arab world as a sign of support for Syria and proper
repayment for his endorsement of Moscow's call for an international
conference on the Middle East. This would be particularly effective if
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WUJ JCGI C\
Tamil Nadu
First-order administrative
boundary
Pakistan,) $ A8
Arabian
Sea
29 October
1984--
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Sri Lanka's Minister of Security claimed Friday.that security forces
have captured Tamil separatist bases in the north and repelled
attacks by insurgents in the east. Press reports indicate that several
suspects have been arrested in connection with Monday's bombings
political settlement.
Colombo is again cracking down owTamil insurgents, while
Indian Tamil leaders say they will continue to support the,
Insurgents until President Javewardene offers an acceptable
Meanwhile, Tamil leaders in India's Tamil Nadu State told the US
Ambassador Wednesday that they believe only US and Indian
pressure will compel Jayewardene to move toward a reasonable
settlement on the Tamil issue. The leaders said Jayewardene could
persuade his fellow Sinhalese to accept a settlement. They also told
the Ambassador that public opinion in Tamil Nadu would not permit
of Tamil autonomy
Comment: The recent attacks and evidence of continuing Indian
support for the insurgents are likely to increase Colombo's
commitment to crushing the insurgency. At the same time, the latest
crackdown probably will further alienate Sri Lankan Tamils and move
even moderates among them to reject any legislative proposals short
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 Too Secret
Japanese Embassy officials in Moscow have told the US Embassy
that Pravda editor Afanas'yev was "called on the carpet" for his
description of Politburo member Gorbachev's position in the
The Japanese Embassy, while certain that the rebuke occurred, could
not say who administered it. It reportedly was prompted either by
Afanas'yev's description of Gorbachev as "second General
Secretary"-a phrase actually supplied by a Japanese newsman-or
by the statement that Gorbachev was "directing the work of the
Comment: Afanas'yev and other Soviet officials have said both
publicly and privately that Gorbachev is the number-two man in the
party and that he probably would succeed General Secretary
Chernenko. This is the first known instance of any Soviet official being
The admonition suggests that the leadership situation has changed
and possibly that the assertiveness of Gorbachev or his supporters
Gorbachev's failure to address last week's Central Committee plenum
may be due to Chernenko's concern that continued public
prominence for the younger leader would undermine his own
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MOR000O-
WESTERN?SAHARA:
The battle between Moroccan and Polisario forces near Zaa is
over
Comment: The outcome of the battle at Zaag emphasizes the
effectiveness of Morocco's berm strategy, because the earthen wall
a long-planned extension of the berm is imminent. Rabat
probably wants to take advantage of the disarray of the guerrilla
forces after the fighting to extend the berm deeper into Polisario
territory. Rabat also hopes that the extension will counter the
Construction of the berm could prompt a strong military response
from Algeria, including air support to the Polisario and the dispatch of
troops to man some Polisario weapons. The extension also heightens
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have formed a unified front for the next general election, which is
required by mid-1985. Opposition leaders have compiled a roster of
candidates and have agreed on how to choose a prime minister if they
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win.
Comment: If the opposition maintains the accord, it would present a
serious threat to the reelection of Prime Minister Charles. Her
Freedom Party lacks the money to mount a strong reelection
campaign' and her popularity has suffered because of the slucaish
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South Asia - President Zia told visiting US diplomat border violations from
Afghanistan into Pakistan will increase prior to UN General
Assembly debate on Afghanistan ... charged violations in 1984
triple 1983 rate ... wants US ground-to-air missiles to defend
- Japanese Prime Minister Nakasone won endorsement of Liberal
Democratic Party elders in meeting yesterday ... press reports
formal reelection could come by Wednesday.... already
considering makeup of new Cabinet and party hierarchy.
Near East - Iraq has begun work on its portion of Iraq-Saudi oil pipeline ... 25X1
work on Saudi. segment unlikely before January ... Saudi failure to
Philippine opposition leaders believe Agrava Board findings set
stage for militant anti-Marcos demonstrations ... criticize
President's conciliatory attitude toward accused military figures
... Marcos countering by attacking US pressure for action on
Senegal has received its first light ground-support aircraft, as
grant aid for France, according to US defense attache ... Socata
Guerrier aircraft can be armed with rockets and machineguns ...
Communist-dominated unions in Chile have called for protest
today and general strike tomorrow ... most workers will ignore
strike, but demonstrations likely, to produce violence similar to last
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GREECE: Papandreou Under Fire From All Sides
Prime Minister Papandreou appears politically vulnerable for
the first time in his tenure as he faces strong opponents on the
left and right with national elections one year away at most. He
has adhered to his radical Ideology and rhetoric but has
maintained Greece's Western ties. These inconsistent policies
and his vacillations are Increasingly damaging the government's
Papandreou's rhetoric has always been radical, reflecting his
ideological convictions, the exigencies of domestic politics, and
psychological factors. Now, with little substance to show for three
years of Socialist rule, Papandreou is on the defensive. His rhetoric
has become shrill-as in his defense of the Polish regime during his
recent visit to Warsaw and in his denunciation of his principal
opponent as a "traitor"-and has provided openings to his
Papandreou's main challenge comes from Constantinos Mitsotakis,
the new leader of the conservative New Democracy party. An adroit
politician, Mitsotakis has adopted a low-key approach in an apparent
effort to contrast his statesmanlike conduct with Papandreou's
increasingly impulsive and erratic behavior. The approach has met
with some success, as Papandreou's personal attacks on him last
Mitsotakis claims that the Socialist government's "wild
inconsistencies" and its anti-US and anti-NATO policies are harming
Greek interests. He blames Papandreou for the deterioration of
Greece's position in disputes with Turkey and for the Turkish Cypriot
declaration of independence last year. He hopes to encourage doubts
among moderate voters who supported the Socialists in the last
At the same time, the government has come under increasing fire
from the left for failing to live up to its campaign promises. The
Communists have criticized the government for its participation in the
AWACS program of NATO, its decision to purchase fighter aircraft
from the US and France, and its failure to rid Greece of US nuclear
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 While there is little to suggest that Papandreou is facing serious
dissension within his own party, embarrassing defections have
occurred. A former deputy minister early this month charged the
government with polarizing the country and irreparably harming the
Papandreou is perhaps most vulnerable in the political center. As in
the last election, Greek moderates are likely to focus more on the
economy than on foreign policy, and economic indicators are not
encouraging. The inflation rate is over 18 percent, unemployment is
officially estimated at 8 percent, domestic and forei n investment is
down, and the current account deficit remains high
The future of President Karamanlis, whose term expires this spring;
may have an impact on centrists. During the last election, many
moderates felt a vote for Papandreou was "safe" because Karamanlis
It is doubtful that another president could provide the same
reassurance. Karamanlis needs Socialist votes to win parliamentary
approval for another term, but he has not revealed his intentions, and.
Increased tensions in Greek-US relations are likely to continue in the
coming year. As domestic pressures intensify, Papandreou is likely to
become even more prone to lash out at the US-an expedient and
satisfying target. He will look for ways to demonstrate that his tactics
further Greek interests and to counter his opponent's pro-Western
Mitsotakis will look for ways to underscore that Papandreou's poor
relations with the US have damaged Greece's position in the Alliance
and its bargaining power in the Aegean and Cyprus disputes.
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CHINA: Significant Technology Research
Chinese researchers are successfully developing several key
technologies with Important military and economic applications.
Several examples-biotechnology, a supercomputer, armor and
antlarmor, laser research, and high explosives-illustrate that 25X1
In seeking to increase the benefits of foreign technology and
equipment, the Chinese in recent years have emphasized the
acquisition of production know-how. They have moved away from
their past practice of purchasing complete manufacturing facilities,
which often became quickly obsolete and failed to improve China's
technical capabilities significantly. China now is seeking only the most
advanced level of Western and Japanese technology and is taking
advantage of Western literature and data, making good use of 25X1
China's recent accomplishments and plans.
Biotechnology and Supercomputer
Biotechnology is one of China's priority disciplines. Three major
biotechnology research centers are under consideration for
construction in the next two years. The Chinese intend to enter this
field at the level of large-scale manufacturing, however, and basic
research and an established support structure robabl will not be as
vital to their immediate success.
Eight Chinese expatriates who are US biotechnology experts serve on
an official panel that recommended that these centers be built to
provide research in areas ranging from food products to
pharmaceuticals. The panel hopes to supplement each center's staff
with visiting researchers, including Chinese expatriates. Such
professional exchanges may allow the Chinese to manufacture drugs
A plant to produce single-cell proteins, scheduled to be operational in
1986, is also being built. This facility, which will produce an improved
food supplement, is China's first attempt at large-scale biotechnology
Chinese publications claim their Galaxy computer, which became
operational this year, can perform 100 million "operations" per
second. These claims are probably valid for certain types of
problems, which gives the Galaxy one-tenth to one-half the speed of
continued
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? up Secret
The appearance of Soviet tanks equipped with advanced armor
during the 1970s caused a number of nations to begin armor and
antiarmor improvement programs. Consequently, Western-trained
Chinese researchers have exploited Western technical literature,
experimental techniques, and weapon concepts in this field. The
Chinese have been able to reverse engineer and copy older Soviet
and Western antitank guided missiles, such as the Soviet AT-3 and
Although laser research is not new to the Chinese, their scientists are
giving a new emphasis-in some cases on a level equal to that in the
West-to applications such as nuclear fusion and materials
processing for the electronics industry. China has sent a large number
of students and staff researchers to work in Western laboratories.
They integrated quickly into the laser research activities of their
sponsoring group and returned to China experienced and well-
US scientists in contact with the Chinese have said China has a highly
competent program that in some respects surpasses the US in the
development of very energetic high explosives. This experience is
applicable to nuclear weapon design, and Chinese excellence in this
field probably results from previous large-scale commitments to the
nuclear weapons program.
The Chinese have synthesized new compounds that could lead to
higher energy explosives, but like the US, China has not yet been able
to stabilize them. Chinese specialists are aware of current US
research on high explosives and have said they regularly receive US
scientific publications.
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