NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000500020055-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 55
• Publication Date: October 17, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central
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National Intelligence Daily
;i
Wednesday
17 October 1984
OCRAS/CIG
CY'S 477-.486
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Copy 486
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El Salvador: Talks With Guerrillas .............................................. 1
USSR-China: Fifth Round of Talks .............................................. 2
International: Record Wheat Production ................................... 3
Notes I
Jordan: Presence of Islamic Jihad ............................................. 4
Nicaragua: Election Outlook ....................................................... 4
Peru: Election Slates Set .............................................................. 5
Bolivia: Political Developments .................................................... 5
EC-US: Examining US Export Controls ...................................... 6
Belgium-Libya: Proposed Nuclear Cooperation .......................... 6
Morocco-Western Sahara: Battle Continues. ............................. 7
South Africa-Lesotho: Peace Prizes .......................................... 7
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10
Special Analyses
OPEC: Effects of Reduced Oil Income ........................................ 12
Africa: Food Outlook Worsens .................................................... 14
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President Duarte and the insurgents appear interested in further
talks, but neither side is likely to offer motor concessions in
The meeting on Monday at La Palma was highlighted by an
agreement to form a commission of four representatives from each
side with a Catholic bishop as second moderator. A meeting is
scheduled for late next month.
Along with political spokesmen Ruben Zamora and Guillermo Ungo,
four guerrilla commanders attended the initial meeting, representing
two of the five Marxist factions. Preeminent insurgent leader Joaquin
Villalobos announced at the last minute that he could attend
because of transportation problems.
Comment: Both sides presumably reiterated longstanding conditions
for formal dialogue in the four hours of private discussion. While both
Duarte and the rebels clearly sought propaganda benefits, they
appeared genuinely interested in creating a favorable climate for
future talks and held their rhetoric and recriminations to a minimum.
They also warned the public, however, not to expect a breakthrough
Indeed, neither side is likely to offer a serious compromise soon.
Duarte repeatedly has rejected the guerrillas' demands for power
sharing. He cannot appear so conciliatory as to risk his newfound
credibility with the armed forces and the conservative opposition. The
The highest ranking guerrilla at the meeting, Ferman Cienfuegos,
belongs to a faction that has been reduced in size and military
strength. His views may not reflect those of Villalobos and other
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Moscow has taken several steps to help create a favorable
atmosphere for the talks between Deputy Foreign Ministers llichev
and Qian. For example, Soviet commentary on the meetings at the UN
last month between Foreign Ministers Gromyko and Wu suggested
that the sessions had been less contentious than r m ko's previous
sessions this year with the Chinese.
Soviet media have toned down the criticism of Chinese policies that
followed President Reagan's visit to China and the intensification of
Sino-Vietnamese border clashes last spring. Moscow's handling of
the 35th anniversary of the Chinese Communist state was warmer
Deputy Premier Arkhipov's visit.
The long-scheduled fifth round of Sino-Soviet talks that opens in
Beijing tomorrow will give the two sides a chance to repair some
of the damage caused in May by the Soviet postponement of First
new date for Arkhipov's visit to Beiiin . Officials on both sides say the
trip will take place this year.
Comment: The new talks will demonstrate Moscow's response to
recent Chinese efforts to revive momentum in the dialogue. llichev
could end Moscow's stalling on the Arkhipov visit by proposing a new
progress on the fundamental security issues-Moscow's military
buildup on the border, intervention in Afghanistan, and support for
Both sides probably want to restore at least the appearance of
movement in the dialogue. Nonetheless, they are unlikely to make any
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I up aecrer
World
1982/83
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
Canada
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
Australia
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
Argentina
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
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17 October 1984
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Too Secret
Global wheat production and exports this year are likely to reach
record highs. des ite poor crops in several exporting nations.,
for the current market year-1 July 1984 to 30 June 1985-
according to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture. Wheat
by 20 percent from last year. As a result, wheat exports by Canada
and Argentina will be substantially lower. Australia can use record '
Comment: Wheat crops in other countries have not fared as well. Bad
weather in Canada, Argentina, and Australia has dropped production
With two of the big four export competitors suffering declines, US
wheat exports-estimated at 43 million metric tons-are likely to
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US Embassy contacts in Amman report that the Islamic Jihad
organization has established itself in Jordan, possibly under the guise
of the Muslim Brotherhood. Embassy officials say the Islamic Jihad
name is associated with two separate groups in Jordan. One group is
identified with the Shia Islamic Jihad in Lebanon. The second is a
Sunni fundamentalist organization believed to be more radical than
the Islamic Liberation Party. which advocates overthrowing the
Comment: Jordanian security and intelligence organizations closely
monitor fundamentalist activity but have not been concerned about
its growth during the last few years. The violent nature of both Jihad
groups will galvanize Jordanian security, however, and the
government is likely to arrest Jihad members, as it has members of
the Liberation Party for inciting action against the regime. The Muslim
Brotherhood is unlikely to provide cover for Islamic Jihad activities. It
has good relations with the government and would risk losing its legal
status in the country.
NICARAGUA: Election Outlook
Socialist International President Brandt's reluctance to raise publicly
his disappointment over Nicaragua's election during his visit to
Managua has given the Sandinistas confidence that they can largely
escape condemnation of their election plans. According to the US,
Embassy, Brandt emphasized the need to tolerate conflicting political
views but did not blame the Sandinistas for their failure to secure the
participation of the opposition coalition in the election. Although i
Brandt limited his public support for the government, he declared the
Comment: The Sandinistas successfully gambled that they would not
be held publicly accountable by the Socialist International for the
failure of talks with the opposition. The regime realizes the election
will not gain the legitimacy it hoped for, but it is willing to settle for
control over the process and minimal recognition of democratic
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Top Secret
Alfonso Barrantes
Top Secret
Alan Garcia
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The failure of two major center-right parties to achieve an electoral
alliance improves prospects for the two leftist opposition candidates
in the presidential election next April. Efforts to reconstruct the
coalition that brought President Belaunde to power four years ago
foundered, because both sides insisted that their respective standard
bearers head the ticket. According to the US Embassy, the major
beneficiaries of the center's inability to unite are current center-leftist
presidential front-runner Alan Garcia of the American Popular
Revolutionary Alliance Party and Alfonso Barrantes of the Marxist-,
Comment: The failure of the center-right to unite probably ensures
that Belaunde's successor will be a leftist. Early polls indicate that
Garcia has a wide lead, but he is untested in a national election and
must overcome residual distrust of his party. Barrantes's leftist
coalition probably has improved its position by selecting a
nondoctrinaire slate designed to attract youth and independent
President Siles has temporarily mollified the military by shifting
unpopular Army Commander Sejas to a largely ceremonial post.
Other political problems remain, however. Two important economic
ministries are unfilled following the departure from the cabinet-at
Communist Party insistence-of the Christian Democrats. Labor
protests against austerity measures are growing more violent, and the
Comment: Despite the removal of Sejas, coup plotting probably will
resume as the economy continues to decline and labor becomes ,
more strident. Siles's retention of two Communist ministers in his
cabinet suggests he will have difficulty forming a tough economic
program, and his yielding to Communist pressure on the economic
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EC-US: Examining US Export Controls
The agreement of EC industry ministers yesterday to complete an
inventory of US controls on high-technology exports reflects
widespread concern in Western Europe that the controls adversely
affect EC industries. According to press reports, the list will take
about six weeks to complete and will be used by the EC Ten to
counter future US efforts to strengthen export controls. At the I
meeting, EC Industry Commissioner Davignon criticized current and I
proposed US restrictions on high-technology sales. He claims that I
such controls give US firms a competitive edge in overs as sales.
although they are justified officially on security grounds.
Comment: The Commission's involvement in the study affirms that
EC members view US efforts to control high technology as partially
motivated by commercial concerns.
BELGIUM-LIBYA: Proposed Nuclear Cooperation
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oppose the agreement, despite criticism in the media that Belgium is
sacrificing vital economic interests to US concerns. He is urging the
US and allied governments to reiterate to Prime Minister Martens and
Foreign Minister Tindemans their opposition to the sale before the
meeting.
Comment: Eyskens probably is taking a hard line in hope of regaining
US favor after he recently pushed through the sale of Belgian machine
tools to the USSR. In exchange for stopping the agreement, Brussels
probably would at least require renewed assurances from other West
European suppliers that they will not supply nuclear equipment and
services to Libya. Most Belgian Cabinet members almost certainly'are
tempted by the lucrative project, which is tied to a broader economic
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 Mor 25
Canary Islands
7 (Spain)