NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 29 AUGUST 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000400020107-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 11, 2010
• Sequence Number: 107
• Publication Date: August 29, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central 1 - -
Intellige,
OCP:AS/CIG
Director of
National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
29 August 1984
Top See -el
CPAS NID 84-203JX
29 August 1984 25X1
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Top Secret
Contents
Grenada: Moderates Unify .......................................................... 1
France-North Africa: Opposition to Moroccan-Libyan Accord 4
USSR-Latin America: Lobbying Efforts .................................... 5
France: Government Accepts Automobile Layoffs ....................
India-Pakistan: Dispute Over Hijacking ...................................... 9
OPEC: Oil Production Tumbles .................................................. 10
Iran: Trying To Stir Up Support .................................................. 10
Netherlands: Saudis Request Minehunters ................................ 11
Special Analysis
Middle East: International Terrorism on the Rise ...................... 13
Top Secret
29 August 1984
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GRENADA: Moderates Unify
Leaders of several eastern Caribbean countries have succeeded
in getting Grenada's four moderate parties to unite, but
disagreements over sharing power probably will continue as
Grenadians prepare for elections later this year.
The Prime Ministers of Barbados, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent played a
key role in fashioning the agreement at a meeting last Sunday. The
US Embassy in Grenada reports that the New National Party will be
led by Herbert Blaize of the Grenada National Party. A steering
committee of representatives from each of the parties will develop the
new party's structure and platform.
The US Embassy in Bridgetown says the regional leaders are worried
that a return to power of former Prime Minister Eric Gairy-who has
been gaining strength in recent months-would undermine the
effectiveness of regional security forces and provide leftists with a
unifying issue.
Comment: The new party-if it holds together-will provide a broad-
based alternative to Gairy's party, which has benefited from the
moderates' squabbling. Although the agreement is a positive
development, the moderates still have to overcome their primary area
of dissension-the division of seats on a single slate. In addition, they
will have to make up for lost campaign time with elections scheduled
before the end of the year.
The Caribbean leaders interceded because of the implications of an
electoral victory by Gairy. Their governments actively supported the
US-led intervention in Grenada, and his return to power would be
viewed as a repudiation of their efforts.
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FRANCE- Opposition to Moroccan-Libyan Accord
NORTH AFRICA:
France reportedly believes that the Moroccan-Libyan "unity"
accord will upset the balance of power in the Maghreb, and Paris
may try to persuade Rabat to reject it.
Foreign Minister Cheysson will discuss the recent agreement during
his visits to Algeria and Tunisia beginning tomorrow, according to the
US Embassy in Paris. French Foreign Ministry officials have told US
diplomats that Paris is concerned that King Hassan's actions threaten
to undermine prospects for peace in Western Sahara.
The French believe the agreement will stiffen Algerian support for the
Polisario guerrillas. They fear it may increase support for Algiers in
black Africa at Morocco's expense.
Comment: Paris has tried to foster better relations between Algeria
and Morocco, in part to facilitate a settlement in Western Sahara. The
French fear the accord will upset their efforts by increasing Libyan
influence in the region.
Cheysson almost certainly will assure Algiers that Paris opposes the
accord, and he may tr to persuade Hassan to abrogate the
agreement.
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Top Secret
USSR-LATIN Lobbying Efforts
AMERICA:
Moscow's recent consultations with Latin American countries
reflect its continued interest in improving relations with the
countries of the region, but the visits have yielded few results.
Several Soviet delegations visited a number of Latin American
countries recently to discuss bilateral issues and the agenda for the
UN General Assembly session. Countries visited included Costa Rica,
Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and Cuba.
US Embassy reporting of the meetings indicates that the Soviets
raised disarmament issues, but most Latin American officials
considered this a Soviet-US bilateral matter. Nor were they receptive
to the Soviets on other topics.
The Costa Rican Foreign Minister, for example, rebuffed a Soviet
pitch for a UNGA resolution condemning aggression in Central
America. He inquired about Soviet support for Nicaragua and warned
against a Soviet military presence there.
Comment: Numerous Soviet media reports on these visits and press
conferences held in most of the countries visited indicate that the
Soviets are trying to increase their diplomatic visibility in Latin
America. Moscow probably hopes to counter US charges about the
subversive nature of Soviet policy in Latin America, as well as any
propaganda gains made by China during the recent Latin American
trip of the Chinese Foreign Minister.
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Top Secret
FRANCE: Government Accepts Automobile Layoffs
The Mitterrand government's quick decision to allow layoffs at
the privately owned automobile firm Citroen shows a continuing
resolve to modernize and restructure the economy.
The government approved Citroen's plan to reorganize following its
acceptance last week by non-Communist workers' representatives.
The plan provides 10 months' retraining at 70-percent compensation
but wHI allow only 1,900 layoffs rather than the 2,400 originally
requested.
Earlier this year the government allowed Citroen to reduce
employment by 4,000 through attrition and early retirement but
denied the company's request for layoffs.
According to the US Embassy, the government's early acceptance of
the plan is a direct challenge to the Communist-controlled union,
which organized automobile factory sit-ins last spring and called for
further negotiations.
Comment: Prime Minister Fabius' first major restructuring decision
demonstrates his-and President Mitterrand's-determination to
modernize industry and to improve the financial prospects of
business, despite opposition from the Communist-controlled union.
The government's rapid decision was meant to catch the unions off
balance before most workers return from vacation later this week.
The Citroen plan may be the model adopted by the nationalized giant
Renault when it attempts to reduce its workforce by 15,000 later this
year.
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Top Secret
ON?OA-PAIXIISTAN: Dispute Over Hijacking
Islamabad has rejected allegations by the Indian Ambassador that
Pakistani officials in Lahore armed and aided the Sikh hijackers of an
Indian aircraft last weekend. The Pakistanis said Islamabad decided
against an attempt to force the hijackers to surrender in Lahore
because passengers might be harmed. The US Embassy in Islamabad
says Pakistani officials believe India will use Pakistan's alleged
mishandling of the hijacking as another pretext to stall bilateral
reconciliation talks that New Delhi postponed in July.
Comment: New Delhi's suspicions that Pakistan is encouraging Sikh
dissidence in India predispose the Indians to believe the worst. Even
though Indian officials recently told US diplomats that talks might
resume next month, the Pakistanis are justified in doubting that there
will be progress before Indian elections in January. Prime Minister
Gandhi's decision to put off the talks probably reflected her belief that
she could gain more by delaying than by pursuing rapprochement
with Pakistan.
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29 August 1984
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OPEC: Crude Oil Production, 1984 Million b/d
1984
Quota
First
Half
July a
August a
Total 17.5
18.2
17.7
16.2
Algeria 0.725
0.7
0.7
0.6
Ecuador 0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Gabon 0.15
0.2
0.2
0.2
Indonesia 1.3
1.5
1.4
1.3
Iran 2.4
2.3
2.5
2.0
Iraq 1.2
1.1
1.2
1.2
Kuwait 1.05
1.0
0.9
0.9
Libya 1.1
1.2
1.1
1.0
Neutral Zone b
0.5
0.4
0.3
Nigeria 1.3
1.4
1.1
1.1
Qatar 0.3
0.4
0.4
0.3
Saudi Arabia c 5.0
4.9
4.5
4.3
UAE 1.1
1.3
1.3
1.1
Venezuela 1.675
1.7
1.7
1.7
Production is shared equally between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and is included in
each country's production quota.
C Saudi Arabia has no formal quota. It acts as swing producer to meet world market
requirements.
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Top Secret
OPEC: Oil Production Tumbles
Oil
,production :in OPEC countries this month will average about
16.2 million barrels per day. At this? level, production will slip below
the cartel's ceiling for the first time this year. Iran's Oil Minister claims
Tehran voluntarily has cut its output by 50 percent as a gesture
toward OPEC unity.
Comment: OPEC's efforts to limit production in order to defend the
benchmark price of $29 per barrel will temporarily ease downward
pressure on prices. Iranian production probably fell only 500,000
barrels per day despite Tehran's claim. Prospects for some increase
in world demand later this year and Saudi willingness to absorb any`
further slack in the market should stabilize prices during the rest of
the year. Nonetheless, some producers will continue to discount
prices in order to support their sagging oil exports.
IRAN: Trying To Stir Up Support
Tehran is modifying some of its more radical social and economic .
policies to lessen popular discontent. Ayatollah Khomeini has called;
for punishing corrupt officials and handing control of foreign trade in
all but essential goods over to bazaar merchants. He also has ordered
government departments to be more efficient and sensitive when
dealing with ordinary citizens. The regime has brought corrupt
officers of the Heavy Industry Ministry to trial, disowned
demonstrators who recently attacked women not in Islamic attire, and
expanded an earlier general amnesty for political'prisoners.
Comment: The initiatives-which parallel Tehran's current diplomatic
campaign to improve its international image-reflect official concern
over flagging revolutionary fervor. The leaders hope to win
cooperation from conservative senior clerics, reduce popular
dissatisfaction, and encourage badly needed professionals to return
to Iran. The changes in trade policy address economic complaints of
opposition clerics and their supporters in the bazaar. Even so, these,
people remain opposed to a wide range of government policies.
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Lebanon Syria
Mediterranean Sea B e i r u t ? , *Damascus
? j(
Israel(ti
*Amman
Port Said L
Canal Jordan
Cairo
Egypt
Port', Sudan
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
Baghdad*
Iraq
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NETHERLANDS: Saudis Request Minehunters
The US Embassy in The Hague reports that the Netherlands has
responded positively to a formal request from Saudi Arabia for mine-
clearing assistance. Sudan reportedly will not request similar Dutch
help. The US defense attache says two Dutch Alkmaar-class
minehunters, now conducting training exercises in the Baltic, are
available and ready for Red Sea operations.
Comment: The Dutch minehunters will operate in Saudi waters along
with units from the. US and France. The ships could arrive at Port
Said, en route to the Red Sea, within three weeks. Sudan probably
failed to request Dutch aid because it is unable to provide fuel and
water supplies at Port Sudan.
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In Brief
Top Secret
Middle East - Iraq exploiting hijacking of Iranian airliner for propaganda since it
landed in Baghdad yesterday ... has held press conference for the
hijackers and arranged tours to Shia holy shrines for the
passengers.
Japan has informed Iran it will resume work on major petro-
chemical plant at Bandar-e Khomeyni as early as October ...
facility nearly complete but construction suspended because of
Iraqi bombing ... new attacks, however, would again deter Japan.
Salvadoran troops at regional training center ... current battalion
graduates on 28 September ... Tegucigalpa receptive to new
training arrangement but wants progress in border dispute talks.
- Honduras has notified Ell Salvador it will not accept more
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Middle Eastern. Terrorism, January-June 1984:136-Attacks-
Attacks by Major Terrorist Actors
Iranian-backed groups 39
Palestinian groups 24
Libyan-sponsored action 21
Jewish extremists 15
Syrian-backed Palestinians 9
All other groups 28
Attacks Against Major Terrorist Targets
Israel 24
France 24
Palestinians 21
US 14
Libyan exiles
10
43
Attacks Against US Targets
By Iranian-backed groups 11
By Syrian-backed groups 2
By Lebanese Armed Revolutionary Faction 1
Casualties by Nation or Group
Total Casualties
Israel
France
United-Kingdom'
Libyan exiles
Palestinians
US
11 other nations
Unknown
260
95
26
25
15
14
10
28
47
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Special Analysis
MIDDLE EAST: International Terrorism on the Rise
International terrorist attacks originating from the Middle East
doubled In the first six months of 1984-136 incidents, as
compared with 128 for all of 1983. Attacks on US interests have
increased, although not at the same pace. Middle Eastern
terrorism Is not likely to decline and probably will account for
about half of international terrorism in 1984 and beyond.
The new prominence of Middle Eastern groups parallels the early
1970s, when they dominated the international terrorist scene. Middle
Eastern groups and states have conducted more attacks in Western
Europe and Africa in 1984 than in any of the last four years.
Although attacks this year have produced far fewer casualties than in
1983, when eight large bombings set a tragic record in human losses,
an increasing proportion of Middle Eastern terrorist incidents this
year have caused casualties.
Several factors have contributed to the increase in Middle Eastern
terrorism. The competition among PLO groups for prominence and
leadership in the divided Palestinian movement and despair over the
lack of diplomatic progress in the Arab-Israeli conflict have led to a
major escalation in attacks on Israel. Terrorism by Jewish extremists
against Arabs in the West Bank is another reason for the increase in
1984.
State sponsors of terrorism were implicated in about 50 percent of
Middle Eastern terrorist incidents, about the same proportion as
1983. Iran and Syria have been implicated in about the same number
of incidents as last year, and an outburst of Libyan-backed terrorism
has occurred in Africa and against anti-Qadhafi dissidents in Western
Europe.
Outlook
The increase in Middle East terrorism is likely to persist.
- Palestinian raids on Israel probably will continue at least at the
level observed so far in 1984.
- Non-PLO groups such as Abu Nidal and 15 May will continue
to threaten Israeli, US, and other interests. Should one or
more of the PLO groups become estranged from the umbrella
organization, they could join the non-PLO mavericks in
attacking international targets.
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- Libyan-sponsored terrorism against exiles and Qadhafi's
opponents in Africa and the Middle East is likely to continue.
Libya probably was responsible for the Red Sea mining,
suggesting that Qadhafi is still prone to take risks, possibly
including attacks on US targets.
- Syria probably will support or allow Palestinian groups based
in Syrian-controlled territory to attack Israel, Jordan, pro-
Arafat Palestinians, and possibly other moderate Arab states.
- Iranian-backed terrorism will persist in Lebanon, the Persian
Gulf, and Western Europe. The course of the Iran-Iraq war and
Tehran's current diplomatic effort to reduce its international
isolation will affect the level of Iranian activity.
Several developments may diminish the incidence of terrorism
emanating from the Middle East.
- In Lebanon the reduced presence of potential foreign targets,
increased security, and Syria's interest in propping up the
government of President Gemayel will limit terrorism.
Although growing tensions between Arabs and Israelis in the
West Bank may produce isolated attacks by Jewish
extremists, such.attacks are unlikely to rebound to their early
1984 levels because of Tel Aviv's success in breaking up
extremist groups.
- Increasing counterterrorist efforts in Western Europe and by
some Arab states may constrain terrorist activity.
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Top 5ecrez
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