NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 4 MAY 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000200030016-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 8, 2010
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: May 4, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top,Secret
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
11
4 May 1984
Top SeGFOi
CPAS NID 84-105JX
copy 285
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4 May
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Contents
Israel-Syria: Captured Israelis .................................................... 3
Angola: Rumors of Arrests .......................................................... 4
Dominican Republic: Appeal for Labor Support ...................... 5
Jordan: King Hussein's Speech .................................................. 6
UN-Cyprus: Security Council Debate ........................................ 7
USSR-US: Military Condemns Verification Proposals ................ 11
East Germany-West Germany: Travel Policy ............................ 12
4 May 1984
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ISRAEL-SYRIA: Captured Israelis
Israel is hoping diplomatic pressure will lead to the release of
the three Israelis captured T non, but Syria is
unlikely to acquiesce.
Israeli officials are using diplomatic channels to assure Damascus
that the Israelis seized are security guards at the Israeli liaison office
in Ad Dubbayah. The US Embassy in Tel Aviv reports Israel will ask
the International Red Cross to seek a meeting with the Israelis and
may ask their help in obtaining the release of the .Israeli prisoners.
.Syrian Foreign Minister Shara told Embassy officers Wednesday that
the Lebanese Government will decide the fate of the Israelis.
Comment: The arrest of the Israelis is politically embarrassing to
Israeli Prime Minister Shamir. It will serve to reinforce the already
widespread belief in Israel that the Israeli pr is too
costly and that withdrawal must occur soon.
Damascus, meanwhile, may hope to use the Israeli prisoners as
leverage to demand that the Israelis close their liaison office, which
was set up under the now repudiated agreement between Lebanon
and Israel. The closure of the office would end any semblance of
official Israeli-Lebanese relations.
There.have been no Israeli military movements in Lebanon-or on the
Golan Heights, indicating Tel Aviv is not preparing for military action.
The Israelis probably realize that they cannot force Damascus to
release the prisoners.
Syria and Israel currently hold six Israeli and 291 Syrian soldiers,
respectively., So far, Damascus has rebuffed all offers for an exchange
of prisoners.
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A power struggle may be under way in Luanda between President
dos Santos and rivals loyal to pro-Soviet hardliner Lucio Lara.
The government, meanwhile, has announced the creation of a defense
and security council that will have a broad range of national security
functions. It is to be headed by dos Santos and composed of
Politburo members with key securit positions and members of the
General Staff.
The council's creation and its membership indicate a further
strengthening of the President's powers, which have gradually
increased since 1982. The group includes individuals closely
associated with dos Santos and apparently excludes individuals
linked with the Lara faction
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DOMINICAN Appeal for Labor Support
REPUBLIC:
President Jorge Blanco's tactics apparently have caused the
labor federations to refrain at least temporarily from calling new
demonstrations.
The President was conciliatory in a speech on Monday expressing
regret about the deaths in the demonstrations last week and
announcing several new welfare measures. He also agreed to meet
regularly with union leaders. In a session with them on Tuesday,
however, he rejected demands to abandon the IMF austerity program,
according to the US Embassy.
The Embassy reports that Jorge remains determined to reach an
agreement with the IMF by the middle of the month. Three issues are
unresolved-settling of at least $150 million of overdue foreign debt
payments, financing a $100 million deficit in the operating budget,
and shifting imports of petroleum products to a more expensive
exchange rate. The Embassy reports the President also has decided
to fire Central Bank Governor Bernardo Vega.
Comment: The President's speech was an attempt to minimize the
damage following his strong remarks last week, in which he blamed
the main opposition party for the disturbances. Jorge may have
succeeded in maintaining calm in the short term by preventing further
violence on May Day and by meeting with the labor leaders.
Opposition parties are intimidated by Jorge's willingness to use force,
and they seem undecided about their next move. Nonetheless, the
austerity program could be jeopardized if members of the ruling party
join with the opposition to try to repeal it.
Jorge probably will use Vega's dismissal to deflect blame from
himself and his party for the effects of the austerity program. An
announcement of increases in petroleum prices-probably to
become effective by early July-is likely to be timed to avoid the
anniversary of the assassination of Trujillo, which falls on 30 May.
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JORDAN: King Hussein's Speech
King Hussein toned down his recently strong anti-US rhetoric in a
private briefing of the parliament this week aimed at fostering a
more realistic view of Jordan's influence in the Palestinian
problem.
Hussein emphasized that Jordan has no alternative to pursuing a
mutually acceptable peace settlement with Israel. He stressed that
Jordan can never hope for a military balance with Israel. He also
warned that a united Arab world will never be able to impose its will
Hussein underscored the central role Washington must play in an
eventual solution to-the Palestinian problem. He said that the US and
Israeli elections are delaying movement toward settlement, but he
promised to look for opportunities.
PLO leader Arafat arrived in Amman Wednesday and met with
Hussein in what one senior Jordanian official described as "a
continuation of our reunion process."
Comment: Hussein's speech probably was intended to moderate the
tone of parliamentary debates on the Palestinian issue, which had
become extremely anti-American since the King's bitter statements
last March. He probably wants to lay the groundwork with
Washington for postelection peace discussions.
Arafat's visit will arouse public speculation about a dramatic new
move in the peace process, but such a development seems unlikely.
Arafat is as constrained as ever by internal PLO problems and
appears no closer to giving Hussein the mandate he needs than
during his previous visit seven weeks ago.
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