NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 28 APRIL 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000200020097-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2010
• Sequence Number: 97
• Publication Date: April 28, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
28 April 1984
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CPAS NID 84-1 X
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Contents
Japan: New Trade Package ......................................................... 2
South Africa-Angola: Talks Held ............................................... 3
Argentina: Domestic Economic Woes ........................................ 4
UN-Cyprus: Security Council To Meet ......................................... 7
USSR-North Korea: Soviet Gestures ........................................ 8
Yugoslavia: More Pressure on Dissidents .................................. 9
Special Analysis
Israel: Likud Election Prospects .................................................. 11
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JAPAN: New Trade Package
role in strengthening the free trade system.
Prime Minister Nakasone is characterizing the trade
liberalization measures he announced yesterday as a
demonstration of Japan's willingness to take its proper
communications satellites.
The package focuses on tariff cuts. It also includes measures to
promote imports and investment and statements on energy
cooperation and on the possibility of future purchases of foreign
bloc among Diet members, according to Embassy reporting.
In addition, Tokyo emphasized its recent steps to reduce trade
frictions over agricultural products and high-technology imports.
Tariff reductions on some agricultural goods, however, such as
forestry products, were omitted because of opposition by the farm
Comment: Although the package is directed primarily at improving
relations with the US, it also addresses concerns of the West
Europeans and less developed countries. Nakasone wants to use
the package to smooth the way for a visit by Vice President Bush and
also to set the stage for a successful performance at the London
Economic Summit. The Prime Minister, who is facing difficulty getting
successes to maintain his political strength.
his domestic program through the Diet, needs foreign policy
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SOUTH AFRICA- Talks Held
ANGOLA:
South African and Angolan diplomats meeting in Zambia
resolved differences that could have impeded the withdrawal of
South African troops from southern Angola.
Foreign Minister Botha, who attended the meeting, says Angola
agreed to Pretoria's demand that the joint patrols in the
disengagement area continue for up to a year after South African
forces withdraw. Both countries also agreed to exchange prisoners of
A senior Zambian official has told the US Embassy that both sides are
satisfied with the pace of the disengagement. The South Africans and
Angolans have agreed to meet after the South African withdrawal is
completed.
Botha proposed a meeting between SWAPO and the Namibian
political parties. He says that both Zambia and Angola support the
proposal and that Angola will urge SWAPO President Nujoma to
In addition, Botha demanded that Luanda expel the ANC. He
threatened to attack all ANC training camps in Angola.
Comment: Although the presence of several hundred SWAPO
insurgents in southern Angola and northern Namibia has slowed the
departure of South African troops, both sides still seem committed to
the disengagement. The withdrawal could be completed by late next
Zambian President Kaunda believes a meeting between SWAPO and
the Namibian parties will precede a cease-fire in Namibia and is
necessary before the UN plan for Namibia can be carried out.
Pretoria, on the other hand, seeks an agreement between SWAPO
and the Namibian parties as a way of limiting SWAPO's political
power in an independent Namibia.
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ARGENTINA: Domestic Economic Woes
President Alfonsin's failure to curb inflation is causing labor
unrest and could undermine the government's economic
program.
Price rises, according to US Embassy reports, slowed moderately in
January but then rose to 20 percent in March, double the expected
rate. A wage policy that grants salary increases in excess of price
rises has been a major factor in keeping inflation high, according to
The increase in prices, according to various reports, has helped to
unify the Peronists. Their demands for higher wages have intensified,
and the number of strikes by Peronist-led unions has increased in the
past several weeks. Two weeks ago the Peronists publicly rejected
collaborating with the government on economic policy and vowed to
resist a slowdown in salary increases. 25X1
In an effort to reach an agreement with the Peronists, Alfonsin
recently appointed a representative to try to mollify labor, and he
began talks with Peronist political bosses, according to press and
Embassy reporting. This past week Alfonsin replaced his combative
labor minister with a moderate who, according to the Embassy, is
more acceptable to the Peronists. 25X1
Comment: Failure to slow inflation is likely to encourage investors to
shift funds from productive ventures to more speculative fields. Labor
is almost certain to call. for more wage hikes, which Alfonsin will be
hard pressed to resist. Further salary increases will complicate both
Alfonsin's domestic growth strategy and his relations with foreign
lenders whose credits are vital to industrial recovery.
Additional wage hikes, however, are unlikely to placate Peronists, who
seem inclined toward confrontation. Peronist leaders also probably
will try to exploit Alfonsin's setbacks before the congressional
elections scheduled for next year. On the other hand, the economic
problems have opened rifts in Alfonsin's own party, which will
complicate his efforts to cope with the Peronist challenge. 25X1
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Turkish-controlled area
NICOSIA
UN buffer
zone
Western Sovereign
Base Area (U.K.)
'Eastern Sovereign
Base Area (U.K.)
Mediterranean Sea
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UN-CYPRUS: Security Council To Meet
The Security Council is likely to meet next week to consider a Greek
Cypriot complaint that the Turkish Cypriots are violating a Council
resolution by continuing in their effort to create an independent state.
The US Embassy in Nicosia reports that the Greek Cypriots feel
compelled to push hard to counter Turkish Cypriot plans to
promulgate a constitution and hold presidential elections. The Turkish
Cypriots indicate that condemnation by the UN might provoke them
to settle part of the vacant city of Varosha and terminate the mandate
of the UN peacekeeping force when it comes up for renewal in mid-
June.
Comment: The eight nonaligned members of the Security Council
usually act in unison, and they probably will play an important role
in the debate. In the past, they have supported the Greek Cypriots.
If they help pass a resolution condemning the Turkish Cypriots,
tensions in Cyprus almost certainly will become more serious.
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USSR-NORTH KOREA: Soviet Gestures
the Soviets are indeed
inieresiea in improving relations with 'yongyang. According to a
North Korean official, General Secretary Chernenko, in an
"unprecedented" gesture, sent congratulations and gifts to President
Kim II-song on his 72nd birthday on 15 April. Soviet Deputy Foreign
Minister Kapitsa, at a recent ceremonial meeting in Moscow, toasted
Kim's son as "Comrade Kim Chong-il, beloved guide of the DPRK."
The North Korean official adds that nine DPRK delegations and six
from the USSR exchanged visits during the first three months of this
year-a marked increase over 1982 and 1983.
Comment: The North Korean's remarks come against a background
of mounting rumors that Kim intends to visit Moscow within the next
two months. There also are signs that the Soviets may be giving at
least tacit endorsement to Kim's plans for his son to succeed him.
Nonetheless, any marked improvement in bilateral relations-
severely strained for several years-will require more than gestures
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Belgrade's crackdown on dissidents appears to be growing in scope
and intensity. Authorities have canceled a public discussion by
leading intellectuals, banned the latest issue of a philosophical .
journal, and suspended a journalist from a major Belgrade paper.
Press reports indicate the police have warned Serbian dissidents
against further "illegal" gatherings and have charged two dissidents
arrested last week with criminal offenses. This week a Macedonian
representative on the federal party presidium demanded renewed
controls on "negative" messages in the press. In addition, the federal
secret police recently were granted more authority to intervene in
local affairs.
Comment: The moves may reflect a long-postponed decision to
confront Serbian intellectuals, who have had considerably more
license than other domestic dissidents. Although Serbian dissidents
have felt the brunt so far, party attacks against the press suggest
direction from the federal party. Despite negative reaction in the
West, the regime probably will extend the crackdown to other
segments of society, including the churches.
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In Brief
Middle East - Armored personnel carriers recently sent from US were distributed
to Christian brigades in East Beirut last week ... Lebanese
Muslims will see this as further evidence of Christian intentions to
dominate the Army by keeping Muslim units weak.
- Morocco says it pushed back major Polisario attack near
Mauritanian border yesterday ... largest since Morocco began
extending defensive berm last December ... Rabat expects more
attacks during construction but confident it can defeat insurgent
forces.
be towed to Bahraini drydock.
- Dutch salvage experts have extinguished the fire on Saudi
supertanker ... cargo will have to be transferred before ship can
visit prompted by progress in oil exploration.
- North Yemeni President Salih has met with Mitterrand in France
this week ... discussed assistance for electric power, oil
distribution, and storage projects ... possible military sales ...
argues it could not let Philippine economy collapse.
loan package to Philippines, despite domestic criticism ...
$189 million in quick-disbursement commodity loans ... Tokyo
_ - Japanese press reports say Cabinet has approved $247 million
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Current Composition of Likud Bloc
Party
Leader
Knesset
Members
Herut (Freed
om)
Yitzhak Shamir, Prime Minister
25
Liberal Party
Yitzhak Modal, Energy Minister
17
La'am (To th
e Peo
ple)
Eliezer Shostak, Health Minister
4
Independents
Yigal Hu
Mordech
Ben-
rvitz
ait
Porat
a
2
Total
48
a Resigned from cabinet, 29 January.
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Special Analysis
ISRAEL: Likud Election Prospects
The Likud bloc of parties, which dominates the governing
coalition, enters the campaign for the national elections on
23 July troubled by factionalism, leadership rivalries, and a low
standing in the opinion polls. The strong second-place finish by
former Defense Minister Sharon in the vote by the Herut Party
central committee to choose the Likud's candidate for prime
minister was a repudiation of Shamir's uninspired leadership.
It also was a setback for Deputy Prime Minister Levy. Many
Sephardi voters-Israeli Jews from Asia and North Africa-
probably will abandon Likud because they believe they would
suffer from economic reforms it would put into effect. To limit
this loss, Likud is likely, reluctantly, to exploit Sharon's
charismatic appeal to the Sephardis, and he will demand an
important role in the campaign and in a new Likud government.
Prime Minister Shamir has dealt with Israel's problems and kept his
shaky coalition intact far better than most Israelis expected when he
took office last October. Nevertheless, he has failed to establish a
sense of firm leadership over the coalition and his party.
Shamir was faced with almost constant threats to his government
from its small coalition partners, from the TAMI and Agudat Israel
Parties, and from dissidents within his own Likud bloc. He has
not been able to prevent Sharon's periodic outbursts aimed at
undermining his leadership or to assuage his rival Levy's resentment
at not getting the Foreign Affairs portfolio, which Levy believed
Shamir had promised him.
Sharon has returned to a position of influence as a result of his show
of strength in the Herut Party's central committee voting earlier this
month. He has convincingly demonstrated that he has appeal among
the party's rank and file, unlike Shamir. Sharon has gained public
recognition as a possible future leader of Herut and has called
attention to the transitional nature of Shamir's incumbency
Sharon will now compete with Levy for the number-two position in the
party hierarchy. Levy probably had hoped that, by not challenging
Shamir now, he would solidify his claim to be Shamir's heir apparent.
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Press reports indicate that much of Sharon's vote came from Levy's
supporters, and Levy presumably is wondering how much of this shift
was a protest against Shamir and how much represents a permanent
drop in his own support in the party. Levy received some consolation
at the Herut Party central committee meeting when Shamir chose him
to head Likud's election campaign.
Plagued by Factionalism
The alliance between the Herut and Liberal Parties, which is the heart
of the Likud bloc, has been severely strained in recent months, and it
may collapse. The US Embassy reports many Herut loyalists see the
Liberal Party as a fractious and unreliable partner. They blame it for
the government's downfall and for the need for an election because
the defection of one Liberal allowed the passage of the early election
The Herut secretariat has bowed to demands by party members to
renegotiate the 19-year-old agreement that guaranteed the Liberals
"safe" seats on the combined electoral list. Many members of Herut
believe the number of Liberals in the top ranks of the Likud list for the
Knesset should be reduced to reflect more accurately their current
lack of support among the voters.
The Liberal Party is disrupted by its own leadership problems. Earlier
this week, its central committee elected Energy Minister Modai to
head the Liberals' list of candidates for the election. This list will
be combined with Herut's and La'am's to form the Likud list of
candidates for the Knesset.
According to Embassy officials, most of the power brokers in the
Liberal Party supported Justice Minister Nissim in the vote because
they believe Modai is unpredictable and too ambitious. Last summer,
for example, Modai demanded that he be appointed deputy prime
minister to replace the late Simcha Ehrlich, and he later sought the
finance and foreign affairs portfolios as well. Modai now is demanding
that he be given the second position, behind Shamir, on the Likud list.
Campaign Prospects
Likud's prospects in the coming election rest in large measure on
its ability to retain the support of the vast majority of Israel's lower
income Sephardi voters. The US Embassy reports that the Sephardis
are particularly worried that Finance Minister Cohen-Orgad's
continued
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attempts to turn Israel's ailing economy around will lead to long-term
erosion in real wages, high unemployment, and severe cuts in social
services and that they will bear the brunt.
Sharon's charismatic campaigning would improve Likud's appeal to
the Sephardis, despite the country's economic problems and reverses
in Lebanon. On the other hand, the harsh rhetoric and invective that
Sharon would bring to the campaign probably would alienate many
undecided voters. The latter make up about 20 percent of the
electorate and were instrumental in reelecting former Prime Minister
Labor's ability to capitalize on Sephardi discontent and on Likud
disunity will depend largely on whether it can maintain a united
leadership and present itself as a convincing alternative to the public.
Party Chairman Peres has done a good job in recent months in
organizing the party leadership and in unifying the party. His public
standing in opinion polls, however, remains low.
Peres probably will secure more support as the campaign heats up, in
view of the lack of enthusiasm for Shamir's leadership. The active
participation in the Labor leadership of former President Yitzhak
Navon, a Sephardi, probably will attract many disgruntled Sephardis
into the Labor camp. So will the appointment next month of Israel
Kessar-a Sephardi of Yemenite origin-as secretary general of
Israel's large trade union federation, the Histadrut.
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