NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 7 APRIL 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000200020026-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2010
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: April 7, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Int, .
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
7 April 1984
Top Sec. et
CPAS NID 84-082JX
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Contents
Iran-Iraq: Military Activity ............................................................ 1
Ell Salvador: Military Supply Problems ....................................... 3
Iran: Tudeh Beginning To Regroup ............................................ 5.
Western Europe-US: Resolution on Arms Cooperation ............ 6
Mozambique-South Africa: Status of Relations ........................ 7
Cameroon: Fighting Continues in Capital .................................. 8
Notes
Iraq-Iran: Iraqi Propaganda Windfall ..........................................
Hungary: Economic Reforms ...................................................... 10
USSR-Kampuchea: Delivery of Patrol Craft .............................. 10
Special Analysis
Thailand: Prem's Political and Economic Problems .................. 12
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7 April 1984
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IRAN-IRAQ: Military Activity
Iran Is sending more forces to the front as Ba hdad idly
strengthens its defenses near Al Basrah. ra 25X1
The Iranian press reports that Iran is mobilizing large numbers of
additional irregulars for the front.
many of them will have little or no equipment or training
raq is building new strongpoints an or i ica ions
south of Al Basrah along the Shatt al Arab.
shows Iranian positions on the southern M ajnoon Island have been
flooded by the Iraois_ and several Iranian vehicles are trapped in the
Comment: Baghdad apparently believes the attack may be launched
soon and is concentrating on strengthening the defenses along the
flanks of its forces east of Al Basrah. Iran has enough forces in place
on the Al Basrah front to launch an offensive at any time. The callup of
irregulars suggests, however, that Tehran believes it needs more
manpower before it tries to break through Iraq's formidable defenses
at Al Basrah.
The concentration of Iran's forces on the Al Basrah front and in the
Majnoon Islands area suggests they continue to plan the main attack
there. The Iranians also are likely to wait, however, until the flooding
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subsides before launching the attack.
DIA Comment DIA believes that Iranian forces are fully prepared to launch the
offensive. The additional Iranian militia could be part of a phased
reinforcement anywhere along the front. It is unlikely that the main
attack is planned to cross the flooded approaches opposite the
extensive Iraqi defenses north of Al Basrah'. The planning suggests
attacks along the less heavily defended flanks of Iraqi III Cor s at Al
Basrah and a ainst IV Corps at Al Amarah.
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Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
7 April 1984
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EL SALVADOR: Military Supply Problems
The high level of fighting during the past few months and
aggressive offensive action by government forces to prevent
guerrillas from disrupting the presidential elections are rapidly
depleting the military's supplies of ammunition and weapons.
The US Embassy reports that stocks of rifle and mortar ammunition
and grenades will be exhausted by mid-May. These stocks could be
exhausted sooner if the fighting increases before the election. An
emergency shipment of bombs and rockets for the Air Force, which
is scheduled to arrive next week, will ease that service's critical
shortage for a few months.
In addition, the Embassy reports that a shortage of rifles,
machineguns, mortars, and basic military equipment will prevent the
Army from forming additional units or even replacing damaged or lost
items. A continued shortage of boots and rain ponchos will hurt troop
performance in the field during the summer rainy season. A similar
lack of equipment during the campaign last summer for control of San
Vicente Department caused more soldiers to be put out of action by
weather-related illnesses than by insurgent attacks.
Meanwhile, Army troops continue their sweeps against insurgent
strongholds. The US defense attache reports the insurgents suffered
nearly 50 casualties and lost several vehicles during a recent
operation near Ciudad Barrios in San Miguel Department. The Army
also is conducting an offensive against insurgent positions on the
Guazapa Volcano, north of the capital.
Comment: Government forces probably have enough supplies to
keep the guerrillas from seriously disrupting the runoff election.
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IRAN: Tudeh Beginning To Regroup
Remnants of the Tudeh Communist Party, which has been
decimated by the Khomeini renime over the past year, have
begun to reorganize.
The government arrested Tudeh leaders and hundreds of party
members in .1983. The small number of those involved in subverting
the military have been sentenced or executed. Top party leaders have
been forced to c peatedly on television but have not yet been
tried
The US Embassy in Kabul reports that several thousand Tudeh
members are in Afghanistan
Recent Turkish press reports, citing diplomats in Tehran, claim
Iranian security forces believe the Armenian terrorists who attacked
Turkish representatives in Tehran late last month were linked with
Comment: The rump Tudeh that survives is badly factionalized. It can
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WESTERN EUROPE- Resolution on Arms Cooperation
US:
Representatives of European members of NATO passed a
resolution this week pledging support for the US proposal to
cooperate in developing and producing advanced weapons in
exchange for US procurement of more West European-produced
military equipment.
The resolution passed by the Independent European Program
Group-a body formed by France and the other European NATO
members in 1976 to promote arms cooperation-stresses that
European firms have to have an important share in producing defense
equipment, if the US initiative on emerging technologies is to receive
European backing. At the meeting the chairman of the group
emphasized the need for effective cooperation in order to make West
European firms competitive with US manufacturers.
Comment: Although the resolution supports the US initiative on
emerging technologies, it reflects continued suspicion that the US
intends to use the program to promote the sale of US equipment. The
Europeans probably expect that a positive US response to their
resolution will strengthen support in Europe for the US program.
The state secretaries of the defense ministries in the group meet
regularly but normally receive little attention. The group is becoming
increasingly influential, however, in light of French and West German
interest in finding forums to coordinate West European policies.
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MOZAMBIQUE- Status of Relations
SOUTH AFRICA:
Maputo and Pretoria appear to be satisfied with the
Implementation of their nonaggression pact, despite lingering
mutual suspicions.
The US Embassy in Maputo reports that Mozambican officials were
surprised by the number of ANC members and the quantity of
arms discovered during recent raids on the group's facilities in
Mozambique. The ANC publicly claimed yesterday that Maputo had
ordered its members either to move to UN refugee camps or to leave
the country.
Mozambican officials doubt that South Africa is pursuing its
commitments with equal vigor. They acknowledge that South African
supply flights to the Mozambican National Resistance appear to
have ceased, as have radio communications. Maputo, however, is
disturbed by Pretoria's reluctance to divulge the location of the
insurgent's arms caches in Mozambique.
The Embassy reports the most important unresolved security issue is
Mozambique's refusal to agree to a joint military monitoring presence
in each country. It adds, however, that the inaugural session of the
joint military commission on 26 March went well and that sources in
Maputo believe verification issues can be resolved at the next
meeting on Wednesday.
Efforts to expand economic cooperation also are under way. A South
African business conglomerate plans to make a large investment in
hotel construction, and a major oil company has reversed its decision
to leave Mozambique. Portuguese officials say an agreement
providing for regular payments by South Africa for power from the
Cahora Bassa hydroelectric project should be signed by Portugal,
Mozambique, and South Africa by the end of the month. The
Portuguese say the agreement could provide Mozambique with
substantial hard currency earnings.
Comment: Maputo's actions against the ANC reflect its commitment
to make the accord succeed. It wants to obtain economic help and a
reduction in insurgent pressure. Pretoria also appears committed to
take the steps necessary to preserve the detente with Mozambique,
which is a diplomatic triumph for South Africa's regional policy.
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Fernando Po
(Equatorial Guinea)
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CAMEROON: Fighting Continues in Capital
The situation remained confused late yesterday as dissidents in
the military and Army forces loyal to President Biya battled for
the capital city of Yaounde.
The US Embassy reports that American citizens are safe so far but
that some are located near areas of heavy fighting. The Embassy has
been hit by shellfire but does not appear to be a target.
Press and Embassy reports indicate the fighting is limited largely to
the capital. Cameroon radio in Yaounde has been on and off the air
since the attempt began early yesterday and appears to have been
controlled by both sides.
There is no evidence of outside involvement in the fighting. According
to press and Embassy reports, the insurgents may be northern
soldiers of the presidential Republican Guard who moved after
hearing that Biva, a southerner, planned to reassign large numbers
Some reports indicate that Biya is being held by the insurgents, while
others suggest he may be outside the capital. The US Consulate in
Douala reports that troops in Yaounde who are loyal to Biya are being
reinforced and supplied from. Douala.
Comment: It is not clear how much support the insurgents have.
Troops stationed outside the capital may hold the balance, and the
rebels in Yaounde could find themselves increasingly isolated and
outmanned if outlying forces rally to Biya's side.
The breach opened between northern troops upset over their loss of
influence and southern soldiers will be difficult to heal. The
southerners believe their turn.in power had come after 22 years of
rule by former President Ahidjo, a northerner. The winning side will
need to give first priority to reestablishing a regional and ethnic
balance, if new violence is to be prevented.
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IRAQ-IRAN: Iraqi Propaganda Windfall
Baghdad will use the defection of All Tehrani, a well-known Iranian
cleric, to counteract Iranian propaganda calling for an uprising among
Iraqi Shias. The Iraqi news service announced yesterday that Tehrani
had fled Iran. He is to appear on Iraqi television to discuss conditions
in Iran. Tehrani, a persistent critic of the Khomeini regime, is the
brother-in-law of Iranian President Khamenei.
Comment: Tehrani does not have enough clericial seniority or the
popular following to sway Iranian opinion against the government. His
escape, however, raises the possibility that a safe route has been
established and that more senior clerics opposed to Khomeini will
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HUNGARY: Economic Reforms
Hungarian officials have told the US Embassy that some of the new
economic reforms, which are likely to be presented for approval
at a party plenum in mid-April, already have been watered down.
Nonetheless, central planners close to the proposals say that the
reforms will give workers more voice in the selection of managers,
and managers more freedom to determine prices, wages, and
investment. The proposals are complex, and some party leaders are
concerned about popular reaction to possible higher prices and job
losses. Budapest also sees a need to persuade its allies that its search
for greater economic efficiency will not undermine the party's
authority.
Comment: The introduction of other innovative changes in the
banking system and tax structure probably will be postponed until
1986 to synchronize them with the goals in the plan for 1986-90. F
USSR-KAMPUCHEA: Delivery of Patrol Craft
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Soviet arms carrier has delivered a hydrofoil patrol craft and two
patrol boats to the Kampuchean port of Kampong Saom. The USSR
exports about two of these hydrofoils each year from Vladivostok, all
of which until now have gone to Cuba.
Comment: The hydrofoil received in Kampuchea is not fitted with
torpedo tubes like all previous exports, but its twin 57-mm and
25-mm guns would be adequate for most patrol duties in the Gulf of
Thailand. The patrol craft may augment Kampuchea's small naval
force or the Vietnamese naval forces stationed there.' They could
be effective for intercepting refugees, smugglers, and fishin vessels,
and countering infiltration by antigovernment forces
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In Brief
Rangoon last October.
- Progress unlikely when North Koreans and South Koreans meet
on Monday at Panmunjom to discuss forming joint Olympic team
... P'yongyang will balk if Seoul raises the bombing incident in
probably resigned as long as contacts are nonpolitical.
Asian Games in 1986 and Olympics in 1988... North Korea
- China and South Korea making unprecedented exchanges of
sports teams ... Chinese evidently paving way to take part in
mediate war ... little success anticipated
- Indian Prime Minister Gandhi going to Libya and Tunisia this
weekend ... responding to Nonaligned Movement pressure to
acting as a mediator in the war.
- Iran's Foreign Minister goes to Japan for official visit next week ...
discussions will be on trade imbalances and Iran's request for
aircraft and radars ... Tokyo does not want to offend Tehran by
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Special Analysis
assistance and expanded trade and Investment relations. I I 25X1
troops along Thailand's eastern border. To strengthen his
position at home, Prem will seek Increased US security
Prime Minister Prem, who arrives in Washington next week, has
held the position longer than anyone else in the past decade.
Nonetheless, he faces serious political and economic challenges
that could threaten the stability of his coalition government. At
the same time, the Vietnamese incursion into Thailand last
month has intensified concern about the presence of Vietnamese
Since assuming office in March 1980, Prem has survived an
attempted coup, four major cabinet shuffles, a no-confidence vote
by the opposition party, and a divisive argument between civilian
politicians and military officers over major revisions to the
Chief General Athit. Athit wants to succeed Prem at some point
The ability of Prem to remain in office in the face of what appears
to be almost constant political turmoil rests on the support of the
popular King and of the military-particularly Army Commander in
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King apparently feels that in the near term Prem is the best choice for
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Economic Pressure Prem's position has been strengthened by steady economic growth,
which has averaged 7 percent annually over the last two decades.
Now, however, a $3.9 billion foreign trade deficit is forcing the
government to consider a politically controversial currency
devaluation. Since last October Prem also has been coping with a
domestic financial crisis that was precipitated when three domestic
finance companies went bankrupt.
strongest-to threaten to strike.
continued
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A tighter monetary policy imposed last December to slow an outflow
of foreign exchange reserves resulted in higher interest rates that
placed more finance companies in jeopardy and also slowed the
domestic economy. Moreover, Prem's efforts to abide by his promise
to the IMF to reduce government subsidies to unprofitable state
enterprises have prompted public-sector labor unions-the country's
Prem's active courting of foreign investment to promote Thailand's
development and to ease its balance-of-payments problems also has
high political costs. Increased foreign participation in the economy
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would endanger the interests of senior military officers. Many officers
supplement their salaries through membership on the boards of
directors of private Thai companies and state enterprises.
Agenda in The US Embassy reports that Prem expects his second working visit
Washington to Washington in four years will improve his prestige at home by
serving as a reminder of his experience in foreign affairs and his role
in personifying political continuity in Thailand.
In his meetings with US officials, Prem probably will discuss
resettlement of Indochinese refugees living in Thailand, Bangkok's
progress in antinarcotics campaigns, and other issues. Prem,
however, will be most concerned with security. The Vietnamese
incursion into Thailand late last month will encourage him to request
increased military aid, more grant aid, and better terms for FMS
The Thai delegation also will seek increased US foreign investment
and increased access for Thai products to US markets as a means of
solving some of the country's balance-of-payments problems. It
almost certainly will request better treatment under the US sugar
quota, which cut Thai exports from 290,000 tons in 1982 to 39,000
tons last year. In addition, Prem's delegation is likely to protest the
planned US tariff increase on imported tuna and request a relaxation
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Prem's Prospects The Thai leader has demonstrated an ability to survive serious
challenges to his position. There is a chance that a cabinet shuffle-
which may occur in the next month or so-will buy time for Prem by
bringing the opposition party into the government.
More important, Prem probably will retain Athit's crucial support, at
least until the General retires next year. Nonetheless, Prem is likely to
have to agree to Athit becoming a member of the cabinet-probably
this year. At that point, Prem will become less valuable as an
intermediary between the civilians and the military, and his influence
over governmental affairs will gradually be eclipsed.
INR Comment INR has no evidence to support the judgment that political and
economic difficulties currently threaten the Prem government. In fact,
Prem appears to have been in an unusually secure position for about
a year and faces no imminent crises capable of toppling his rule.
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