NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY TUESDAY 20 MARCH 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000200010039-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 26
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2010
• Sequence Number: 39
• Publication Date: March 20, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central
Intelligence
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National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
20 March 1984
arc
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Top Secret
Contents
Egypt-Sudan-Libya: Military Preparations Continue ..............
Iraq: Concern About Chemical Warfare Publicity ....
EI Salvador: New Insurgent Attacks ........................................
Nicaragua: Electoral Law Approved ........................................
NATO: Dissension on MBFR ....................................................
UK: Increased Opposition to Miners' Strike ............................
Turkey-Iran-Iraq: Possible Shift Toward Tehran ....................
Pakistan-India: Concern About Coup Plot .........................
France-Chad: More Support for Habre .................................. 10
West Germany: Results of Election in Bavaria .................... 11
Yugoslavia: Debate on IMF Credit .......................................... 11
Saudi Arabia: Minister Criticizes King .................................... 12
Special Analysis
Western Europe: Defense Cooperation .................................. 13
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-Top=3ecret
Nigeria
Boundary repreaentetion is
not neceaeerily authoritative.
a Top ~$ecr'et
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Arabia
Ethiopia
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Top Secret
EGYPT-SUDAN-LIBYA: Military Preparations Continue
Abu Ghazala expressed concern that the march could be a
diversion for. Libyan attacks against either Sudan or Egypt. He
requested that US AWACS aircraft be deployed to cover both the
Egyptian-Libyan border and the airspace over northern Sudan. The
Defense Minister also said that there are no plans to send more
Cairo has begun deploying air defense forces to Sudan while
preparing to meet a threatened Libyan "march" into Egypt..
The initial contingent of a 2,000-man air defense brigade arrived
in Khartoum yesterday aboard US aircraft. Defense Minister Abu
Ghazala told the US defense attache in Cairo that he expects the
brigade to become operational within 30 days and to remain for about
eight months to train the Sudanese. The unit will be equipped with
light antiaircraft guns and SA-2 and SA-7 missiles.
President Mubarak told US officials on Sunday that he is taking
seriously Libyan leader Qadhafi's threat "to impose unity" by sending
up to 30,000 Libyans into Egypt on 28 March, British Evacuation'Day.
Mubarak said Egyptian forces would block any incursions by land or
sea and that passengers aboard Libyan aircraft entering Egyptian
airspace would be detained.
reinforcements to the Western Military District, but that fighter
aircraft and an air defense unit will be sent to Aswan.
Qadhafi, in a speech on Saturday, said his earlier statement on
Egypt h en misunderstood and that he would not sponsor a mass
march ome air and around forces
in eastern Libya have assumed defensive positions.
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Comment: The deployment of the brigade is mainly a political
gesture by Cairo to demonstrate support for Nimeiri. The brigade's
SA-2s, which have been in Egypt for more than a dozen years, are
largely obsolete and were scheduled to be phased out this year.
Qadhafi's original call for a march probably was intended to
embarrass Mubarak-unrealistically-and to put pressure on him to
take a tougher approach in Egypt's dealings with Israel. His decision
to back away from the march may reflect fear that it could provide
Egypt, Sudan, and the US with a pretext to retaliate for Libya's
airstrike against Sudan.
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'IRAQ:. Concern About Chemical Warfare Publicity
Baghdad is worried that recent publicity about Iraqi use of
chemical warfare could provoke Iranian or Israeli attacks on Iraqi
facilities.
Iraqi officials have denied publicly that a phosphate plant in
western Iraq is producing chemical weapons and warned that Iraq will
respond to Iranian or Israeli attacks on the facility
during the last year the Iraqis have
constructed at least three SA-3 air defense missiles sites and
deployed 33 antiaircraft guns around a large bunker near the plant.
Earlier this month the US Interests Section in Baghdad said there
have been reports that the Iraqis are extracting uranium from
phosphates at the plant.
Comment: The fertilizer plant does not appear to be involved in
producing chemical weapons, most of which are produced at a facility
~75 kilometers north of Baghdad. The bunker could be used to store
uranium produced at the phosphate plant.
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EL SALVADOR: New Insurgent Attacks
Sporadic guerrilla attacks during the last few days have failed to
disrupt the Army's momentum in the northeast.
Following their attack on Suchitoto on Friday, the insurgents
brought the 3rd Brigade headquarters at San Miguel under small
arms and mortar fire. The US defense attache reports the garrison's
defenses were not penetrated, however, and only two of its members
were wounded. Military spokesmen estimate the attacking force
consisted of 50 to 60 guerrillas, but the number of casualties they
suffered is not known.
Joaquin Villalobos, who commands one of the two largest
guerrilla factions, issued a statement in conjunction with the attacks
rejecting any cease-fire during the election period. He said the
insurgents would intensify the war before, during, and after the
presidential election next Sunday.
Army troops, meanwhile, have crossed the Torola River in an
attempt to enter a large insurgent base area.
Comment: The raid on San Miguel probably was a diversion to.
ease pressure on guerrilla forces in the northeast. The statement by
Villalobos almost certainly presages increased guerrilla military
activity during the last few days of the election campaign. Such an
increase, especially in the east, would be likely to reduce voter
turnout.
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Top Secret
NICARAGUA: Electoral Law Approved
The opposition's boycott of the Council of State's discussion of
the electoral law has enabled the Sandinistas to move rapidly to
approve the remaining articles.
The US Embassy reports the regime made some concessions on
issues that had provoked heated objections from non-Sandinista
parties. The revised article on media access provides for all parties to
share 15 minutes per day on Nicaragua's two television stations and
30 minutes per week on state-controlled radio. A new voting formula
will make it easier for small parties to win assembly seats, and a party
will need to win only one seat to retain legal standing.
The Sandinistas overrode opposition objections to allowing the
military to vote. On the other hand, they will require that military
officials, including the Ministers of Defense and Interior, resign if they
run for office. The law provides that the state will give each party or
alliance $150,000 if it runs a presidential candidate and $5,000 for
each assembly candidate.
In addition, the Sandinistas have allowed the opposition to have
three of eight seats on a body that will oversee party activities. An
electoral council, with broad authority to supervise the elections, will
be named soon by the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, the President of
the Independent Liberal Party has resigned from his position as Labor
Minister to devote full time to the party's election activities.
Comment: The.small concessions being made by the Sandinistas
are intended to give the appearance of flexibility. The Council of State
now will debate a media law, and the Sandinistas soon may announce
relaxation of the state of emergency.
The Labor Minister has been expected to resign, because the
Independent Liberals decided to run their own candidates in the
elections in November. He says the party will not join the opposition
coalition.)
The opposition views the extremely limited opportunity for media
access as more evidence of the Sandinistas' intention to dominate the
election. It fears that the law's financial provisions will penalize them if
they forge an election alliance. Nevertheless, the requirement to
retain legal standing will make the opposition think hard before
boycotting the election.
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Top., Secret
NATO: Dissension on MBFR
The Allies are debating the new initiative the US wants to present
atat th~nt MBFR talks, and a public display of disunity is possible.
The revised US proposal, which would require prior agreement on
existing numbers of combat and combat support troops, still lacks
West German support. Bonn wants to defer the requirement for
agreement on data until after initial Soviet and US troop reductions,
as the Warsaw Pact proposal provides.
The latest proposal from the East also offers on-site inspection to
verify reductions. Bonn cites this concession as justification for
deferring the contentious dispute over data.
Intensive discussions among US, British, and West German
officials have failed to bring Bonn into line behind the new US
proposal. The West Germans argue that it amounts to no significant
change of position and that Moscow will reject it out of hand. They say
this will strengthen the public's belief that the West is stonewalling.
Comment: The government of Chancellor Kohl has been seeking
support for its views among the other Allies. The Dutch, Norwegians,
and possibly the Italians are among those who may agree that more
flexibility is needed.
Some Allies are upset at their exclusion from the talks among the
US, the UK, and West Gemany on MBFR policy. They would welcome
Alliance-wide negotiations on a new approach.
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UK: Increased Opposition to Miners' Strike
The coal miners' strike, which is in its second week, is another test
of Prime Minister Thatcher's efforts to curb militant unions.
The leadership of the National Union of Mineworkers ordered the
walkout after the government decided to close 20 unproductive
mines, costing some 20,000 jobs. The strike has idled most of the
UK's 174 coal mines, but press reports state that support for the
strike among the miners is sporadic and halfhearted. Workers at
some large coalfields recently voted to reject the strike call and
continue to work.
The government has obtained a court injunction forbidding
strikers from picketing anywhere except at their own workplaces, but
union president Scargill has said the "flying pickets" would do their
work until all mines are closed. There already has been some violence
between strikers and miners who want to work, and the union faces
large fines if it defies the injunction.
Comment: Thatcher is likely to prevail because the rank and file
is split over the strike. Scargill's bargaining position also is weakened
by the large surpluses of coal in the UK. In addition, he has alienated
some miners by failing to call a nationwide strike vote.
The Trades Union Congress, which represents all of the UK's
unions, has thus far stayed out of the dispute. The Congress still is
smarting from its defeat earlier this month, when Thatcher banned
union membership at the government's signals communication
facility.
If opposition to the strike increases in the Mineworkers Union, the
Congress is likely to be more reluctant to support Scargill. Without
some evidence that other unions endorse their efforts, the miners may
have to call off the strike soon.
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Top Secret
TURKEY-IRAN-IRAQ: Possible Shift Toward Tehran
The US Embassy in Ankara reports some signs that Turkey is
strengthening its relations with Tehran in anticipation of an Iraqi
defeat. The indications include the recent trip of the Turkish Foreign
Minister to Tehran, the prospective visit there of Prime Minister Ozal,
press stories about Ankara's reluctance to promote acease-fire with
the Iranians, and rumored arms sales to Iran.
Commenf: The emergence of Iran as Turkey's principal trading
partner and Tehran's call to Turkey and Pakistan to revive the
Regional Cooperation for Development organization could cause
Ankara to give even more attention to Iran. The Ozal government will
move cautiously, however, because Iraq is Turkey's third-largest
trading partner and its second-leading supplier of oil after Iran.
Moreover, Ankara would have to consider that apro-Iran policy could
jeopardize any prospects for economic aid from Saudi Arabia.
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Top Secret
PAKISTAN-INDIA: Concern About Coup Plot
US Embassy reports that an official in the Foreign Ministry promised
last week to give a Western journalist detailed evidence about the plot
so that he could publicize India's involvement. The official said that 26
Punjabi military officers up to the rank of lieutenant colonel are in
custody and that another 350 people, including one or two generals,
have been interrogated.
Comment: The government previously had played down the
incident. The decision to publicize it may have been prompted by
concern that recent Indian and Western press accounts were raising
doubts about the stability of the government. It also probably reflects
a decision to increase pressure on New Delhi to end its involvement
with anti-Zia groups.
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FRANCE-CHAD: More Support for Habre
Guy Penne, President Mitterrand's adviser on African affairs, told
US officials last week that France is providing Chadian President
Habre with vehicles to improve the mobility of his forces. Penne also
said that Paris will provide air cover and logistic support for .
N'Djamena's operations against Libyan-backed rebel infiltration from
the north and that French troops may be ordered to take a more
active role in blocking infiltration. US defense attache reporting
confirms that the French are planning to give more support to Habre.
There are as yet no indications, however, that the French are willing to
use their troops against dissidents in the south, where there are no
Libyan forces.
Comment: Penne said little about France's negotiations with
Libya on arranging a mutual withdrawal of troops. The lack of
progress in these talks and French suspicions that Libya was involved
in the recent bombing of a French civilian plane in N'Djamena may
have persuaded Paris to increase the pressure on Tripoli by allowing
Habre more leeway. Stronger support by France and Libya for each of
their clients could cause intensified fighting among the Chadian
factions.
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Top Secret
Early press reports state the Social Democrats scored gains in
the municipal elections in Bavaria on Sunday. Franz Josef Strauss's
Christian Social Union suffered a setback in the mayoral contest in
Munich, where the party's incumbent was outpolled by the Social
Democratic challenger. Neither candidate received a ma'orit ,
however, and a runoff election will be held in two weeks.
Comment: Although the Christian Social Union continues to
dominate Bavarian politics, the election should serve as a warning of
grassroots dissatisfaction with the party's leadership. During the
campaign, the Social Democrats-traditionally weak in Bavaria-
stressed economic and ecological issues over international security
issues. Their gains probably will strengthen party moderates in other
parts of West Germany who want to continue this strategy for coming
state and municipal elections.
The Federal Assembly is expected to approve a proposed
$380 million credit with the IMF today. The IMF program, which the
government accepted on 1 March after heated debate, provides for
lifting a price freeze on 1 May, raising interest rates to the level of
inflation in gradual stages, and devaluing the dinar. Yugoslavia's
acceptance of these terms will qualify it for financial assistance from
Western banks and governments.
Comment: Even though party and state leaders have endorsed
the program, the government still faces strong regional opposition
because of its other efforts to reform the economy. Regional critics,
especially those who fear recentralization, oppose Belgrade's
proposals to curtail investment credits for selected unprofitable
enterprises, to restrict government budgets at the federal and local
levels, and to encourage greater foreign investment. Last fall
opposition in the Assembly forced Belgrade to back down on .several
austerity measures.
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SAUDI ARABIA: Minister Criticizes King
A major Saudi newspaper recently published a poem by Health
Minister Gosaibi that contained veiled criticism of King Fahd for bein
out of touch with society and for making unwise decisions.
Media coverage of Gosaibi's activities has subsided since the poem
was published, and many Saudis reportedly are afraid to associate
Comment: Public criticism of the King by a government official-
especially acommoner-is unprecedented. Moreover, Gosaibi had
been one of Fahd's strongest supporters because he believed the
King would take steps to loosen social and religious constraints and
implement political reforms. Instead, Fahd has catered to religious
conservatives and has continued to delay reforms, causing
disillusionment among many educated Saudis. Fahd will take action
to punish Gosaibi, but the King is unlikely to dismiss him because of
his popularity with many Saudis and his connection to a prominent
merchant family.
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Western European Union Members
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The Western European Union was established in 1954 when the United Kingdom, France, and the three Benelux
states revised the Brussels Treaty of 1948 to include Italy and West Germany. The revised treaty prohibits West
Germany from manufacturing nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons and certain types of missiles. It also limits
the size of the West German. Army and Its stockpiles of major weapons and ammunition. Although the primary
function of the WEU is defense policy and equipment procurement among its members, it has done little in these
areas.
7018793-84
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Special Analysis
WESTERN EUROPE: Defense Cooperation
The West European Allies are increasingly interested in
coordinating their defense policies, in order to gain greater influence
in NATO and to encourage joint production of arms and equipment.
France is trying to build on this interest by updating its proposal to
revitalize the Western European Union. At France's suggestion, the
Foreign Ministers of the seven members of the WEU will discuss this
on 24 May at a meeting of the organization's council. West Germany
and Italy, and, to a lesser extent, Belgium and Luxembourg have
responded positively, but the UK and the Netherlands are skeptical.
All members, however, appear willing to have their Defense Ministers
meet in Rome next October to mark the 30th anniversary of the WEU's
creation. Such meetings on a frequent basis could provide the forum
for greater coordination of European views within the Alliance.
Paris sees a number of benefits in a revitalized WEU. It is
authorized by treaty to address European defense matters in
cooperation with NATO, and it has neither the US as a member nor
the supranational structure of the EC. Moreover, its membership is
limited to the six original EC members and the UK, thereby making it
the exclusive club France traditionally has favored for defense
cooperation.
France's most recent campaign reflects a growing domestic
consensus that its security interests dictate European cooperation on
defense strategy and weapons production. French officials are
concerned about what they view as increasing neutralism in West
Germany. According to Italian officials, the Mitterrand government
hopes to use the WEU to improve its ties with West Germany and
encourage production agreements designed to benefit French firms.
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West German and British Responses
West German Chancellor Kohl sees expanded European
cooperation in the defense sector as one way to help repair the
damage done by the INF debate to the longstanding consensus in
West Germany on security issues. The government and the opposition
Social Democrats both believe that European cooperation on security
issues should be improved, in order to increase Western Europe's
weight in the Alliance. Kohl's declared aim is to lement and
strengthen NATO, and not to weaken it.
The Kohl government also wants to expand its arms cooperation
programs with its European partners to offset what it views as a
disappointing record of US procurement of West German weapons
and equipment. In addition, Bonn hopes that increased cooperation
with Paris will draw French military forces close to NATO and foster a
dialogue on French nuclear plans and policies.
Moreover, the removal of remaining restrictions on West German
conventional forces-Bonn's precondition for support of the French
plans-would be politically beneficial to Kohl. It would enable him to
placate domestic opponents of his security policy by pointing to West
'
Germany
s acceptance as an equal by its European partners.
British officials are suspicious of French motives, but they say the
UK wants to avoid criticism and will agree to at least consider any
proposals advanced. The British traditionally have opposed
formalizing West European defense cooperation. and they believe the
WEU is an unnecessary financial burden.
London strongly wants the US to be more forthcoming on defense
cooperation, and it is upset over controls on the transfer of U,S civilian
and military technology. Nevertheless, the UK is reluctant to ?
jeopardize its extensive and unique defense ties with the US.
Other Reactions
Rome has been doing much of the legwork for Paris on the WEU
project, primarily because it fears exclusion from the deliberations of
the larger countries and wants to have equal status with the more
important Allies. Italy also believes greater West European
cooperation on defense production and procurement could hel alter
its unfavorable armaments balance with the US.
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Top Secret
The Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg traditionally have
favored European cooperation plans. The Dutch are wary of the WEU'
scheme, however, and they have repeatedly expressed their
Belgian officials claim that the government is divided on the future
of the WEU, but Foreign Minister Tindemans is enthusiastic. He
believes that the organization could be linked to the EC after being
expanded to include those current and future members of the
community who wanted to join.
Outlook
West Europeans will continue to investigate ways to increase their
defense cooperation. The use of the WEU toward this objective, '
however, is complicated by the wariness of the UK and the
Netherlands, by the differences among WEU members on how to
proceed, and by the concern about how the US would react.
Nevertheless, WEU members are likely to lift remaining.treaty
restrictions on West Germany-except for the prohibition on
chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons. They also may pledge to
use the existing WEU structure to strengthen arms cooperation and
to seek other tasks for the Agency for Control of Armaments.
The meeting of Defense Ministers in October is likely to be held,
and it could lead to periodic, informal meetings of defense ministers.
This political impetus, however, would then need to be translated into
joint policies and programs.
The machinery for accomplishing this does not now exist in the
WEU. It will not be established until all members first agree that such
a move is de it d then determine how to proceed.
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