NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 9 MARCH 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000200010003-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2010
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: March 9, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
UCPAS/~TG
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National Intelligence Daily
Frida y
9 March 1984
CPAS NID 84-057JX
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Contents
Turkey-Greece: Naval Incident .............................................. 1
Suriname: New Policy on Censorship .................................... 4
USSR: Commercial Resources Satellite .................................. 5
USSR-Iran-Iraq: Private Comments on the War .................... 6
Iran-Iraq: Increase in Charter and Insurance Rates ................ 6
Syria: Government Appointments Expected .......................... 7
USSR-Eastern Europe: Shortage of Civilian Aircraft ........... 7
Poland: Pressure on Intellectuals ............................................ 9
OAS: Election of New Secretary General ................................ 10
France: Strikes in the Public Sector ........................................ 10
Special Analyses
USSR: Genetic Engineering .................................................... 15
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Greek Destroyer Fired On
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arch i 84
Kilometers
0 25 50 75
0 25 50 75
Nautical Miles
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are being strained by new tension over Cyprus.
The incident yesterday in the northern Aegean involving Turkish
and Greek warships will contribute to the decline in relations, which
requested by Prime Minister Papandreou to return to their capitals.
The US Embassy reports that three salvos fired by Turkish
warships conducting an antiaircraft exercise in international waters
landed near a Greek destroyer and several fishing boats near the
Greek island of Samothraki. Athens has rejected Ankara's
explanation that the flotilla's fire was directed away from Greek
ships, and both the Greek and the Turkish Ambassadors have been
explanation of the incident.
Athens also announced that it has reinforced surveillance of the
area, and it has protested to Allied ambassadors and directed its
representative to raise the issue at NATO headquarters. Deputy
Foreign Minister Kapis, however, has informed the US Ambassador
that Greece was prepared to accept any reasonable Turkish
least to acknowledge it publicly.
Comment: The incident probably was not a deliberate
provocation. The Greeks are unlikely to believe this, however, or at
increase the chances of another incident.
Both sides probably will want to avoid a military confrontation. As
a result of the increasing tension over Cyprus, however, Greek and
Turkish forces are likely to be on a higher state of alert. This could
for the two governments to calm the situation quickly
Moreover, the recall of the ambassadors will make it more difficult
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CUgA-US: Preparations To Use ASW Helicopters
Cuba received four MI-14 ASW helicopters from the USSR late
last year. These helicopters were delivered to Cienfue os Airfield in
central Cuba where the have been assem I
e u ans are preparing the airfield there to
support helicopter operations. Helicopter landing zones have been
painted on the runway, two helicopter hardstands have been built,
and what appear to be parking aprons are under construction. In
addition, an ordnance depot has been constructed and an old repair
hangar is being refurbished.
Comment: The MI-14 is the USSR's most modern land-based
ASW helicopter. It is normally equipped with sonar, radar, and
magnetic anomaly detection devices and is armed with mines,
torpedoes, and depth bombs. but these sensors and weapons have
not yet been observed
The Soviet Navy uses the MI-14 primarily as an ASW aircraft. The
Cuban h ly also will employ it for monitoring surface
ships.
The improvements to the facilities at Mariel are likely to be
completed by midyear. The MI-14, operating at the extreme limits of
its range and with a light load of weapons and sensors, has a
maximum operating radius of 180 kilometers. This gives it the
capability to monitor the sea lanes in the Straits of Florida.
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SURINAME: New Policy on Censorship
on 1 May.
Army Commander Bouterse has agreed to end media censorship
The US Embassy says Prime Minister Udenhout has obtained
Bouterse's agreement to end restrictions on the media that have been
in effect since December 1982. Two private radio stations and one
newspaper reportedly will be allowed to resume operations and the
government will no longer maintain its control over the editorial policy
of another newspaper.
Udenhout also is conducting an investigation of government
employees who deal with the media in an effort to root out leftist
influence. A new law regulating the media is to,be enacted later this 25X1
year.
Meanwhile, the government has charged that a large force of
Surinamese exiles in nei hborin French Guiana is re arin for n 25X1
invasion.
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Two people were arrested last week for allegedly contacting the
In addition, the Army reportedly was put on alert, and security
patrols in the capital were increased.
Commenf: The status of the media will continue to be precarious
even ,after the restrictions are lifted. Bouterse will not hesitate to
reimpose censorship or close down newspapers and radio stations if
opposition activities or media criticism challenge his hold on power.
especially in the middle class.
Although information on the activities of the exiles is fragmentary,
there does not appear to be any immediate threat to the regime.
Nonetheless, the arrests last week indicate that Bouterse is
concerned about domestic support for the exiles. His decision to relax
media censorship may be aimed at undermining such support,
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The USSR may provide a satellite service to CEMA countries next
year that could become competitive with the US Landsat system. ~~ 25X1
The Soviets recently filed a request with an international agency
reserving two radiofrequencies for an Earth resources survey satellite
that would begin operating in 1985. The system will have two
operational satellites designed to provide meteorological data and a
combination of high- and medium-resolution remote-sensing data.
According to the request, the system will be used by the USSR, East
Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria,
Mongolia, Vietnam, and Cuba.
Comment: Last July the Soviets launched a new satellite, Cosmos
1484, which may be the immediate forerunner of the system they
intend to operate next year. Although the Soviets have released no
information about the Cosmos 1494, it may carry an improved
imaging system. To have a fully effective system, however, the Soviets
will have to upgrade their data collection, relay, and ground
processing capabilities.
The new system may have real-time data transmission
capabilities and imaging resolutions similar to the US Landsat
satellites. If so, it could become highly competitive with Landsat,
especially if the potential sale of Landsat to US private industry
results in higher user charges. It will also have to compete with
France, which intends to orbit a commercial system in 1985 and is
already searching for customers.
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USSR-IRAN-IRAQ: Private Comments on the War
Foreign Minister Gromyko told the visiting Yugoslav Vice
President last week that the "Islamic extremist" Ayatollah Khomeini
was responsible for the continuation of the "senseless" war,
according to an official of the Soviet Embassy in Belgrade. The chief
of the Foreign Ministry's Middle East department, in a conversation
with a West European ambassador last week, doubted that Iran would
try to block the Strait of Hormuz. One of his deputies expressed
similar skepticism this week to a US Embassy official, claiming that
Tehran would suffer as much as the other nearby countries if it were
to take such a step.
Comment: Gromyko's remarks go far beyond the line in the
media, which has been increasingly critical of Iran's prolongation of
statement on Wednesday condemning US naval and air activity in the
Gulf was more an attempt to discredit the US than a reflection of
concern -that closure of the strait is imminent.
IRAN-IRAQ: Increase in Charter and Insurance Rates
Iraq's recent air attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf have led to
increases in charter rates and war risk insurance premiums for
tankers entering the Gulf. Charter rates for oil shipments from Khark
Island to Western Europe have risen from 66 cents per barrel to
$1.09 per barrel since the end of February, according to press
reports. Insurance premiums on tankers visiting Khark Island have
doubled. Iran's news agency reported yesterday that Tehran was
putting $100 million into a London bank to insure all tankers loading
Comment: Tehran's willingness to provide insurance underscores
its concern about a possible drop in oil sales. To maintain exports at
current levels, Tehran also will have to factor the new charter rates
into its price. Iran already has set its official sales price $1 per barrel
below comparable Arab crudes to offset the higher costs of shipping
and insuring its oil. The new increases would force Tehran to absorb
an additional 25 cents per barrel, or an estimated $150 million per
year in lost export earnings.
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SYRIA: Government Appointments Expected
President Assad may calculate that giving his brother Rifaat a
more prominent post will ease tensions-at least in the short term-
by allowing him to claim a victory and pull his troops back to their
barracks. Press reports state that Assad plans to appoint three vice
presidents, in an effort to ease the power struggle among his
advisers. Rifaat, Foreign Minister Khaddam, and Baath Party leader
Mashariqah reportedly are to fill the positions for Defense and
Security, Political and Foreign Affairs, and Party Affairs, respectively.
Comment: The succession issue will remain unresolved, if Assad
names two of Rifaat's rivals to equal positions. The role of the
vice president for defense in the military chain of command-now
dominated by Rifaat's opponents-still has to be defined.
USSR-EASTERN EUROPE: Shortage of Civilian Aircraft
The chairman of a Yugoslav charter airline recently t?Id
that the Soviets are interested in buying back old TU-134
airliners in an effort to ease a shortage of commercial transports in
the USSR. He sold the Soviets three of the aircraft last December and
will travel to Moscow this month to discuss additional sales. The
Yugoslav believes?civilian aircraft production in the USSR has
suffered from a realer allocation of resources into the production of
military aircraft. the shortage of
Soviet civilian aircra as cause pro ems or air Ines in Eastern
Europe, especially for Bulgaria and Poland, which rely on the USSR
for equipment.
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The authorities have increased pressure in recent weeks on
uncooperative intellectuals. The US Consul in Poznan. reports that
special police teams detained 10 people following searches of the
apartments of writers, actors, and other cultural fi ures who had been
active in under round activities.
n addition, the government
has imposed new financial penalties on writers who have their new
works printed abroad and increased its harassment of lawyers who
defend individuals accused of opposition activity.
Commenf: These actions are another sign of the regime's
frustration over its failure to win support from intellectuals. They
probably are a victory for those in the regime who have argued for
tougher measures to bring intellectuals into line. This latest pressure
could lead to greater political passivity and perhaps increased
emigration by intellectuals. Premier Jaruzelski may hope that this
display of heightened vigilance will forestall attacks from his critics
at a party conference scheduled to be held next week.
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Joao Baena Soares
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OAS: Election of New Secretary General
Joao Baena Soares, the second-highest ranking official in the
Brazilian Foreign Ministry, is favored to win the election on Monday
for secretary general of the OAS. He has more than twice as many
committed votes as his competitor, Barbadian Valerie McComie,
including those of all South American countries. The support for
McComie, who is Assistant Secretary General and has been acting
head of the OAS since the resignation last fall of Alejandro Orfila,
comes entirely from the Caribbean region. Although Baena Soares is
generally pro-US, he is sensitive to suggestions that Brazil may be too
Comment: The 52-year-old Baena Soares apparently is seeking
the post because of his uncertain future in the Brazilian Government
after President Figueiredo departs. He is a strong administrator and
politically moderate. As secretary general, he probably would focus
on reducing personnel strength in the secretariat, eliminating
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technical assistance programs.
Massive strikes by public-sector employees and sympathetic
unions yesterday disrupted the economy in the largest labor stoppage
faced by President Mitterrand's three-year-old government. The pro-
Socialist labor confederation was the only major union that did not
support the strike, although several of its member unions
participated. The workers were protesting the government's failure to
maintain fully their purchasing power and its attempts to restrict any 25X1
informal system of indexing public-sector wages.
Comment: The government has campaigned for two years to
reduce indexing wages in the public sector as a step toward
eliminating it in the private sector. Wage increases in the private
sector have been moderate so far this year, but larger increases in the
public sector could encourage other union demands. These increases
probably would weaken employer resistance to wage claims that
could be inflationary. Almost any concessions by the government on
wages would destroy its hope to reduce inflation to 5 percent this
year.
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Special Analysis
USSR: Genetic Engineering
The USSR is promoting genetic engineering, a method by which
genetic material can be isolated, manipulated, and introduced into
cells to alter their characteristics. Moscow is emphasizing research in
biotechnology, with eventual applications in medicine, agriculture,
and industry. The Soviets see genetic engineering as the most
immediately promising area of biotechnology, and they are using
every available mechanism to acquire the more advanced technology
of the West. Genetic engineering has both military and civilian
applications.
The progress of Soviet genetic engineering has been made
possible in part by the acquisition of Western .laboratory equipment
and expertise. US export restrictions on genetic engineering-related
data, equipment, and materials reportedly have slowed research, but
the Soviets have resorted to clandestine acquisition when legal means
have been denied them. Moreover, Moscow is now able to purchase
these resources from Western Europe, Japan, and foreign
subsidiaries of US companies.
There are fewer molecular biologists in the USSR than in the
West. By concentrating on basic sciences, however, the Soviets have
mastered existing technology. They are capable of innovative
research and technological development in areas to which they give
special emphasis.
Research Facilities
Basic and applied genetic engineering and related research are
carried out at more than 75 Soviet facilities. The more complex
research is generally conducted by institutes with long established
expertise in biochemistry, enzymology, and classical genetics. A few
recently established institutes also are involved.
These research facilities are subordinate to the Academy of
Sciences, the Ministry of Health, the Microbiological Industry, the
Ministry of Defense, or universities throughout the country. An
Interagency Scientific and Technical Council subordinate to the
Council of Ministers and the party Central Committee was established
in 1981 to organize and direct the research.
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Potential Uses
The greatest potential threat militarily is the development of
unique biological or chemical weapons that would be difficult to
defend against. Genetic engineering allows large-scale production of
many types of materials previously unobtainable except in minute
quantities but suitable for use as lethal or incapacitating CBW agents.
It also offers the potential for altering pathogens to disguise their
identity, for making pathogens resistant to otherwise effective
antibiotics, and for initiating production of toxins in normally benign
organisms.
Commercial applications are potentially numerous, and the
Soviets may be able to participate successfully in the expanding
international market. Moscow provides its scientists with a new cash
incentive program for applied research and development, as well as
traditional mechanisms for coordinating and targeting research and 25X1
development.
Soviet agriculture, biomedicine, energy, and chemical industries
stand to gain from genetic engineering. For agriculture, it offers
potential alternatives to combat unreliable crop yields, marginally
productive soils, and losses to plant pests.
The Soviets expect to attain a high degree of success in the area
of biomedicine, particularly public health, with emphasis on vaccines
and such biologically active proteins as insulin, interferon, and
hormones.
For energy applications, genetic engineering promises nonfossil
fuel production and recovery of uranium from ore, as well as
biosynthesis of specialized lubricants. Potential chemical applications
include production of plastics and friction-reducing coatings, large-
scale fermentation, biodegradation and pollution control, and
development of biological catalysts.
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