NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 24 FEBRUARY 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 27, 2010
• Sequence Number: 79
• Publication Date: February 24, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
-Top S*cret-
PAS NID 84-044WX 25X1
24 e ruary T V54
') Q. 1;
copy
Director of
II
Top Semem
25X1
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
Top Secret
Contents
Iran-Iraq: Iranian Attacks Near Al Basrah .............................. 3
France-US: Defense Minister's Visit ........................................ 5
France: Truckers' Protests Continue ...................................... 6
Italy: Christian Democratic Congress ...................................... 8
USSR: Mobile Launcher for SS-X-25 ...................................... 10
Warsaw Pact: Military Exercise Announced ............................ 10
India: Armed Forces on Alert .................................................. 11
Philippines: Election Reforms ................................................ 11
Uganda: Guerrilla Attack ........................................................ 12
Special Analysis
Iran-Iraq: The Impending Iranian Offensive ............................ 14
Top Secret
24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Beirut
International
Airport
Druze aid Shia
Christian militia
J/Lebanese Armed' Forces
24 e ruarv
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
Top Secret
LEBANON: Deadlock Continues
Saudi Prince Bandar said Thursday that a cease-fire among
warring Lebanese factions would be announced today. He said it did
not address broader political issues. If a cease-fire goes into effect, it
may be a sign that Damascus sees a cessation of the fighting and a
return to the political track as an opportunity to reassert control over
Meanwhile, other press reports indicate President Gemayel met
yesterday with his father, Phalange Party head Pierre Gemayel;
former President Camile Shamun; and Saudi mediator Rafiq Hariri to
discuss the latest Syrian proposals. Hariri subsequently left Beirut for
Comment: The meeting may have been designed to give the
Maronite elders an opportunity to warn Hariri that, if pushed too far
by Damascus, the government may resort to closer ties with Israel-
and possibly seek Israeli military action.
Both Shamun and Pierre Gemayel have warned of grave
consequences if the President abrogates the accord of 17 May.
Gemayel fears that any move on his part to entertain Syrian demands
would lead to a violent Christian backlash and the downfall of his
government or possibly his assassination.
Junblatt's Comments on Gemayel
Walid Junblatt took a hard line toward Gemayel in discussions
with US Embassy officials in Damascus but said he might settle for
some other constitutional means to force the President out of office.
He mentioned Shia Amal leader Nabih Barri's proposal that the
presidential term be reduced from six years to two.
Comment: Syrian pressure on Junblatt may be responsible for
any moderation in his longstanding demand that Gemayel resign. His
comments, however, may simply be a gesture to placate the US.
Pressure on Muslim Soldiers
A senior Muslim officer recently described pressures on Muslim
soldiers to leave units in East Beirut as "almost unbearable."
Members of Shia Amal have resorted to threats against the families of
Shia soldiers unless they refuse to fight their coreligionists.
Top Secret
1 24 February 1984
9 X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Top Secret
During a meeting with the US Ambassador in Beirut on
Wednesday, Bard claimed he had advised Shia soldiers in the 8th
Brigade to remain with their units. He added that, if the US decided to
back away from helping to defend Suq al Gharb, he would urge the
Shia to leave the brigade so they would not be massacred by the
Druze at their front and by the Christians at their rear.
Comment: With the Army splintering and the Gemayel
government apparently helpless, Muslim soldiers no longer perceive
any purpose in defending the Christian community. Mass desertions
may occur in early March because payday is on 29 February and
soldiers are usually released to take their pay home.
Top Secret
25X1
25X1
2 24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Top Secret
IRAN-IRAQ: Iranian Attacks Near Al Basrah
The Iraqis apparently have blunted an Iranian thrust along the
border northeast of Al Basrah, but fighting continues near the main
road north of the city.
Iraq expected Iran to launch a
major attack in the Al Basrah area, and it claims its troops have
crushed both the attack across the marshes and an attack northeast
of Al Basrah. Baghdad says its forces have killed over 3,300 Iranians
US diplomats in Baghdad report that an Iraqi-backed opposition
group based in Tehran is calling on Iraqi Shias to rise against the
regime. Iran claims some tribes in the southern marshes of Iraq have
joined its forces.
Comment: The Iranian offensive appears to be directed at
severing the main road linking Iraqi forces at Al 'Amarah and those at
Al Basrah. Tehran does not yet appear to have launched its main
assault either at Al Basrah or on the Central front, but it probably will
be ready to do so within a few days
Top Secret
25X1
2bX1
3 24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Top Secret
French Defense Minister Hernu, whose visit to the US begins
today, is likely to focus on armaments cooperation and the need for
closer consultations on Lebanon.
The US Embassy reports that Hernu specifically will raise the
prospective French purchase of the US AWACS. Hernu will
discuss the prospects for US purchase of a French-built tactical
communications system and ask that the US buy more military
equipment to offset the costly AWACS purchase.
Without such an assurance, Hernu is said to be ready to insist
that the US exclude research and development costs from the
AWACS price. The French have hinted to the Embassy that they may
be willing to consider US use of French bases for AWACS operations
in time of crisis.
. The Defense Minister also wants to talk with US officials about
better consultation on Lebanon. He reportedly will seek assurances
that future US moves will be more closely coordinated than was the
announcement of the redeployment of the US contingent of the MNF.
Comment: The French believe that they are at a disadvantage in
arms procurement cooperation. Although Paris has had some recent
success in selling its military equipment to the US, the balance of
military trade since 1977 is almost 6 to 1 in favor of the US.
Paris wants to assure that the two-way street in armaments
cooperation not operate to the benefit of the US at the expense of the
French arms industry. The French have been particularly upset since
1981, when the US canceled the purchase of the Roland surface-to-
air missile system. France and West Germany also subsequently lost
out in the bidding for a new US Navy trainer when their jointly
produced Alpha Jet was not selected.
Top Secret
25X1
5 24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
Top Secret
FRANCE: Truckers' Protests Continue
The traffic blockades by protesting truckers will have limited
political and economic impact, but the action could encourage other
groups dissatisfied with the government's economic policies.
Press reports state some independent truckers are continuing
their blockade despite signs that others have given up. The protest
began last week as a demand for compensation for lost time and
expense caused by a slowdown by customs officials at the Italian
border. Truckers are now seeking more concessions, including
reduced fuel taxes and more freedom to determine work hours.
One recent poll shows that most of the population, which has not
yet been affected by the strike, appears sympathetic. Disruptions
have begun to occur in shipments of automobile parts and fresh food,
however, and there have been isolated incidents of violence.
On Wednesday, Gaullist opposition leader Chirac referred to a
trend of social and economic disturbances since the leftist coalition
came to power. This was the first hint that the strike may become a
political issue.
Comment: Trucking in France is mainly handled by independent
truckers or small firms, which probably do not have the resources to
continue the protests for long. Once the euphoria of their early
successes and national attention has diminished, they are likely to be
willing to negotiate.
The real risk is that the truckers' action could encourage other
dissatisfied groups to emulate them and increase the already high
level of public frustration with the government's austerity program.
President Mitterrand and his economic advisers would like to settle
the issue before early March, when coal miners are scheduled to hold
a protest march in Paris.
Top Secret
6 24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Top Secret
ITALY: Christian Democratic Congress
The Christian Democrats are likely to retain their current
leadership and political strategy during their annual congress, which
begins today, but some may be tempted to consider Communist hints
of interest in cooperation.
The congress is widely expected to retain party secretary DeMita,
despite unhappiness over the party's disastrous performance in the
national election last June. At recent regional party meetings, support
for DeMita among delegates going to the congress was stronger than
in 1981. A prominent journalist has suggested to US Embassy
officials, however, that DeMita's only announced challenger, Civil
Defense Minister Scotti, may be a stalking-horse for a more
formidable competitor, Foreign Minister Andreotti.
The press has interpreted remarks made earlier this week by
Communist Party leader Berlinguer as a new gesture toward the
Christian Democrats and as a reversal of his strategy of seeking
closer ties with the Socialists. Berlinguer says his party will follow a
hard line aimed at bringing down the government of Prime Minister
Craxi and replacing it with a government of administrative specialists,
some presumably sympathetic to the Communists.
Comment: DeMita's reelection appears certain, barring a sudden
decision by Andreotti to run. DeMita's good prospects, however, are
less a sign of strength than a reflection of the party's desire to appear
united in the face of anticipated additional losses in the European
Parliamentary election this June and in nationwide administrative
elections in 1985.
Berlinguer's remarks almost certainly are timed to appeal to
those Christian Democrats who are anxious to regain the premiership
from the Socialists. A majority of Christian Democrats still favor the
current five-party coalition.
Some at the congress, however, may be open to a return to the
strategy of 1976-79. During that time, the Christian Democrats and
the Communists collaborated to force their will on Parliament on a
number of controversial issues.
Top Secret
8 24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
USSR: Mobile Launcher for SS-X-25
Top Secret
In October the Soviets told the
Standing Consultative Commission in Geneva that the SS-X-25 was.
then being launched from a mobile launcher.
25X1
Comment: The imprints tend to confirm the estimate that
SS-X-25 is being launched from a transporter-erector-launcher. The
pattern is similar to those made by the jacks on an SS-16 or SS-20
TEL. The distance between the front and rear pair at the SS-X-25 site,
however, is 1.4 meters longer. The first three of the six test launches
of the missile were from a silo, but the last three probably were from a 25X1
TEL.
WARSAW PACT: Military Exercise Announced
Media in Eastern Europe and the USSR announced on
Wednesday that a Warsaw Pact command post exercise, Soyuz-84,
will be held next month in Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, the
southwestern USSR, and in the Black Sea.
states that only its Army General Staff will participate in Romania,
where it will conduct a "map exercise." The announcements gave no
troop figures. They do not constitute official notification under terms
of the Helsinki Accords, which require prior notification of 21 days for
exercises involving 25,000 troops or more.
Comment: Romania's minimal participation is in keeping with
past practice. In 1979 the Romanians played a similar role in a Soyuz
Top Secret
25X1
25X1
10 24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Top Secret
Top Secret
24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
Top Secret
The US Embassy reports that the Defense Minister has placed the
armed forces on a four-day alert, ostensibly in response to a possible
threat from Pakistan. Army officers, however, say that local
authorities in strife-ridden Punjab and Haryana have consulted the
military about continuing violence between Hindus and Sikhs in their
states. The officers expect that paramilitary forces stationed in the
troubled areas should be able to contain the unrest without
assistance from the Army.
Comment: Prime Minister Gandhi has so far avoided any
implication that the violence might require the Army's intervention.
She would be likely to call in the Army only as a last resort, in part
because Sikhs make up a disproportionately large share of the armed
forces. The widely publicized alert probably is designed to show
dissidents that Gandhi will not tolerate a prolonged challenge to New
Delhi's direct rule of Punjab.
The passage by the National Assembly of several election reforms
this week and the decision by the opposition coalition UNIDO to field
candidates for the Assembly elections in May probably will encourage
other opposition groups to participate. The new reforms include a
six-month suspension of President Marcos's right to order that
individuals be detained without charges. They stipulate that
individuals will not be arrested retroactively, after the deadline
passes, for political offenses. The law also allows opposition parties to
appoint members to the committees that will monitor the voting.
Comment: Marcos presumably hopes that these concessions will
make the elections credible and virtually end the boycott movement.
Most opposition groups will welcome progress on the issue of the
President's detention powers, even though they have been
demanding that he abolish them. The success of Marcos's concession
strategy will be tested early next week, when a major regional party
meets to decide whether to participate.
Top Secret
11 24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
Top Secret
Well-armed guerrillas this week attacked police and military
installations at Masindi, 225 kilometers north of Kampala.
Government forces reportedly fled after offering only slight
resistance. The attackers withdrew before the arrival of Army
reinforcements, which then looted the town.
Comment: The attack demonstrates that the insurgents can still
strike at will at lightly protected government installations. The incident
may encourage additional activity by the guerrillas, but they probably
cannot launch large, coordinated attacks against well-defended
targets. The Army's ineffectiveness and lack of discipline, however,
can only continue to erode popular support for President Obote's
regime.
Top Secret
12 24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Iq
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
Top Secret
Special Analysis
IRAN-IRAQ: The Impending Iranian Offensive
The latest round of Iranian attacks is setting the stage for what
both sides believe could be the crucial showdown in the war. Iran is
preparing a series of major attacks
which probably will begin in a few days and could result
in extremely heavy fighting. Iran's religious leaders appear
determined to try for an outright military victory by overwhelming the
Iraqis with large numbers of irregular troops. The Iranians are likely to
try to capture several small Iraqi cities near the border and push to the
Shatt al Arab, opposite Al Basrah.
Iraq is aware of Iran's plans and will try to inflict the maximum
number of Iranian casualties. Baghdad hopes heavy losses will
increase domestic pressure on Iran's clerics to end the war.
The Iraqis are likely to employ chemical weapons during the
fighting. Moreover, the Iranian attacks will give Baghdad an excuse to
attack Iranian oil facilities, dangerously intensifying the threat to the
Persian Gulf.
Iranian Preparations
In the past month senior Iranian religious leaders have been
calling for a major offensive to end the war.
Iranian press reports state that Revolutionary Guard and militia
troops are being mobilized throughout the country.
Top Secret
14 24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Since 12 February, Iran has launched a series of limited attacks
designed to throw Iraqi forces off balance and seize tactically
important terrain near the border. The attacks also are aimed at
putting Iranian units into positions from which they can interfere, at
least partially, Iraq's ability to transfer forces rapidly between
Iran appears determined to launch a number of large-and
perhaps simultaneous-attacks along the border using large
numbers of irregular infantry to overrun and inflict heavy losses on
Iraqi forces. Tehran evidently hopes to seize the small Iraqi border
towns of Khanaqin and Mandali and push to the Shatt al Arab,
opposite Al Basrah. Iran's religious leaders probably believe that
substantial Iraqi military losses, combined with the loss of several
towns and large-scale civilian evacuations from Al Basrah, would be
enough to cause the regime in Baghdad to begin unraveling.
Iraq's Capabilities
Iraq has a 4-to-1 advantage in operational fighter aircraft and a
significant edge in armor and artillery firepower.
An Iraqi Government spokesman hinted on Tuesday that
chemical weapons would be used on a large scale in the impending
fighting.
The Iranian offensive also will provide Iraq with a pretext to attack
Iranian cities and escalate the war in the Persian Gulf.
Top Secret
15 24 February 1984
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
The pace of Iranian preparations suggests Tehran will be ready
to launch its main offensives in a few days. Both sides appear
determined to make a major effort during the coming battles, which
points to a period of heavy fighting that could last for several weeks.
If Iraqi commanders do not make serious tactical errors and the
morale of Iraqi troops holds, the Iranians are unlikely to achieve an
important breakthrough. Iraq is likely to lose some territory along the
border, and Iran's forces may be able to threaten such border towns
as Khanaqin or Mandali. The Iranians, however, are likely to have
difficulty holding Iraqi territory if Iraq launches determined
counterattacks. Iraq's chances of winning a decisive victory will
depend heavily on its ability to anticipate and defeat the initial Iranian
In the past, whenever the Iraqis have been able to thwart the
Iranians' initial attacks, Baghdad's troops have been able to inflict
heavy losses on Tehran's forces. Moreover, properly employed
mustard agent should have a devastating effect on the poorly
equipped Iranian irregulars that will lead the attack.
The losses Iran is likely to suffer will strengthen the position of
those officials arguing for an end to the fighting. As the extent of the
casualties become known, they could lead to protests in Iran.
Senior leaders are divided on the wisdom of continuing the war,
and a sense of war weariness pervades the bulk of the population.
Any decision for peace, however, will be made by Ayatollah Khomeini.
So far, he shows no sign of wavering in his determination to overthrow
President Saddam Husayn.
With Iran going all-out to achieve a military victory, Baghdad
probably will feel free to attack economic targets in the Gulf. The
Iraqis are likely to launch attacks on Khark Island, particularly if the
war is going poorly on the ground.
In the past Iraqi attacks have inflicted only marginal damage on
the facilities at Khark. Nonetheless, the Iraqi Air Force can cause
substantial damage if no regard is given to its own losses-something
the Iraqis have been unwilling to do in the past.
Iran continues to threaten to close the Gulf if its oil exports are
seriously disrupted. Initially, Tehran may resort to terrorist and
sabotage attacks against Western and oil facilities in the Gulf or
airstrikes on Kuwait.
Despite its threats, Iran has not redeployed air or naval units to
augment its forces at Bandar-e Abbas. Iran has naval mines, however,
and it could interfere with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with little
Top Secret
warning.
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4
Top Secret
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/05/25: CIA-RDP87T0097OR000100020079-4