NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY MONDAY 13 FEBRUARY 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00970R000100020043-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 26, 2010
• Sequence Number: 43
• Publication Date: February 13, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of Top Svc. ell
Central
Intelligence
cam" 7R~,
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Contents
USSR: Succession Decision Delayed
China-USSR: Attendance at Andropov's Funeral
USSR-Eastern Europe: Concern About Balkan Cooperation
Nicaragua: Military Construction Activity
Nigeria: Critical IMF Talks
Antigua and Barbuda: Possibly Early Elections
Yugoslavia-Romania-Spain: Comments on Party Split
Jordan: Water Shortage
9
9
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USSR: Succession Decision Delayed
The failure of the Central Committee to meet over the weekend to
ratify a successor-more than 72 hours after General Secretary
Andropov's death-may indicate protracted political infighting and
bargaining.
The US Embassy reported yesterday that a Politburo consensus
to select Chernenko as general secretary was "expected." A
Politburo meeting Sunday would formalize the decision-or might
already have done so-and a Central Committee plenum would
convene today to ratify the choice. An official announcement
reportedly would come today.
Moscow television on Saturday showed Chernenko preceding the
other Politburo members to stand before Andropov's bier, to offer
condolences to the family, and to form an honor guard at the bier
later in the day.
Comment: Chernenko's preeminence in the ceremonies on
Saturday and the continued private references to Embassy officials to
him-and no one else-as the probable choice seem to indicate that
he has no serious competition for the top post. Two powerful
Politburo members-Defense Minister Ustinov and Foreign Minister
Gromyko-reportedly allied with Andropov in 1982 to prevent
Chernenko from becoming general secretary. If Chernenko has been
chosen for the post now, he probably has come to an accommodation
with those two colleagues and, in effect, will share power with them.
The failure to hold a plenum on Saturday, however, and the
evident failure of the Politburo to reach a final decision yesterday,
contrasts sharply with the brisk pace of events in November 1982,
when a plenum ratified the Politburo's choice the day after Brezhnev's
death was announced. If no decision comes today, the Politburo
probably is deadlocked.
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CHINA-USSR: Attendance at Andropov's Funeral
Beijing's decision to send Vice Premier Wan Li to General
Secretary Andropov's funeral is meant to probe the new Soviet
leadership's attitude toward China.
Wan will be the highest-ranking Chinese official to visit Moscow
since 1964. Chinese President Li Xiannian and National People's
Congress Chairman Peng Zhen also sent a signed message of
condolence that stressed the desire of both governments to improve
relations.
Comment: The Chinese delegation to the Andropov funeral is at a
significantly higher protocol level than that to the Brezhnev funeral in
1982. At that time, China sent its foreign minister and cabled an
unsigned note from state leaders. As in 1982, the Chinese are
emphasizing the state-to-state, rather than party-to-party, nature of
their delegation.
Wan nonetheless is a Politburo member and has close ties to
party leader Deng Xiaoping. Wan plays a significant role in China's
foreign policy and represents the younger, reformist wing of the party.
By sending Wan, who has not been involved in the Sino-Soviet
disputes of the past, China's leaders may hope to set the stage for
better relations with the new generation of Soviet leaders
The Chinese will watch the Soviet treatment of their delegation
carefully. At the Brezhnev funeral, Andropov accorded Foreign
Minister Huang special attention. Huang also met with Foreign
Minister Gromyko for highly publicized talks on bilateral relations. The
Chinese probably expect similar special attention at Andropov's
funeral.
Moscow almost certainly will view Wan's visit as yet another sign
of favorable prospects for improved relations. This visit comes after
the Chinese invitation to First Deputy Premier Arkhipov to visit Beijing
in May.
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4 13 February 1984
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USSR-EASTERN EUROPE: Concern About Balkan Cooperation
The USSR has mixed emotions about multilateral cooperation in
the Balkans and will keep a close watch on the meeting on regional
cooperation this week in Athens, involving diplomats from Greece,
Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, and Yugoslavia.
Moscow supports some aspects of regional cooperation,
including a Balkan nuclear weapons-free zone, in hopes of improving
its strategic position by encouraging Greece's independent stance
toward NATO. The USSR welcomed Prime Minister Papandreou's
efforts to delay INF deployments in other West European states, and
it hopes he will follow through on promises to have US bases removed
eventually from Greece.
The Soviets, however, have long distrusted other aspects of
multilateral regional cooperation. They fear these could lead to
exclusion of the USSR from important developments in the region.
The Bulgarians have felt the need to reassure the Soviets about their
participation by emphasizing the security aspects approved by
Moscow and playing down cooperation on political, economic, and
cultural matters.
Comment: The USSR worries that its allies' participation in
meetings with NATO and nonaligned countries, especially in the
absence of a Soviet supervisory presence, could encourage more
independent positions not necessarily in accord with Moscow's
interests. Romania is clearly their greatest problem in this regard.
Bulgaria also has shown more assertiveness of its national interests in
recent years, including a tendency toward increased cooperation with
the West in the face of reported Soviet opposition.
The Soviets believe the meeting in Athens is off to a bad start as a
result of Turkey's success in moving discussion of the Balkan nuclear
weapons-free zone from the focal point of the session to the end of a
comprehensive agenda on multilateral cooperation. The experts will
first discuss cooperation in a number of economic, scientific, and
cultural areas. Turkey, and to a lesser extent Yugoslavia, appears
determined to keep future meetings from focusing predominantly on
the nuclear weapons-free zone.
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5 13 February 1984
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NICARAGUA: Military Construction Activity
The Sandinistas are making rapid progress on a major new
airbase, and they continue to build facilities for their expanding armed
The main runway of nearly 4,000 meters-
the longest in Central America-remains in the early phases of
construction, but the 2,300-meter parallel taxiway is nearing
completion. Sixteen revetted hardstands to protect aircraft are in
various stages of construction.
The defense attache reports that work on La Rosita airfield in
northern Zelaya Department resumed in January after being delayed
by the rainy season. Cuban engineers reportedly also are helping with
this facility.
the Soviet-staffed hospital near
hinandega is being expanded, and work continues on a major new
garrison outside Managua. Meanwhile, two basic training schools
were inaugurated earlier this month in Mataaalpa, according to
Nicaraguan press reports
Comment: The airfield at Punta Huete apparently is designed as
a major combat base, but, at the current pace, it probably will not be
complete until 1985 or later. The taxiway, however, could support
some limited operations by fighters. The Sandinistas probably have
increased construction activity to take advantage of improved
The new installations and other improvements are necessary to
support the growth of the Army. The active duty force has grown by
an estimated 10,000 men over the past year to some 35,000. Another
65,000 men are in reserve and militia units.
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6 13 February 1984
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A Nigerian economic team led by Finance Minister Onaolope will
reopen negotiations this week in Washington with the International
Monetary Fund on Lagos's request for a loan of up to $2.5 billion.
International bankers have linked the rescheduling of some $2 billion
in officially guaranteed, short-term debt and the extension of critical
new financing to the outcome of the talks with the Fund. Discussions
have been held up since the coup of 31 December while the regime of
General Buhari has reviewed the last round of talks between the Fund
and the ousted Shagari government.
Comment: Buhari needs to arrange for enough financing to cover
essential debt payments, food supplies, industrial raw materials, and
spare parts. The question of devaluation is the major stumblingblock
to an IMF agreement because Buhari fears that the resulting inflation
could spark street riots. A final agreement is unlikely before April, by
which time Buhari needs to demonstrate some political and economic
accomplishments or risk domestic disillusionment with the coup.
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Netherlands Antilles
(Netherlands)
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Caribbean Sea
Anguilla (UK.)
4
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and
the Grenadines
Guadeloupe
(Fr.)
Dominica
Martinique
(Fr.)
Grenada
13 February 1984
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ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: Possibly Early Elections
Prime Minister Bird's government plans to call for general
elections in April if a new voter list and plans to redraw constituency
boundaries can be completed by then.
Comment: Although elections are not due until mid-1985, the
moderate opposition United People's Movement has been steadily
gaining strength. Nevertheless, the opposition is underfinanced and
unprepared for elections, and the ruling Labor Party, which is better
organized, is unlikely to lose its parliamentary majority. Elections in
Antigua could initiate a trend in the eastern Caribbean, and other
governments-such as Saint Christopher and Nevis and Saint
Vincent and the Grenadines-may call for early elections this year to
take advantage of similar weaknesses in opposition parties.
YUGOSLAVIA-ROMANIA-SPAIN: Comments on Party Split
Yugoslavia and Romania are criticizing the new pro-Soviet
Spanish Communist splinter party and, in varying degrees, Moscow's
role in encouraging the split. Belgrade has expressed official regret
over the break, which it says weakens the independence of the
established Spanish Communist Party. The Yugoslav press charged
that the development in Spain is part of a Soviet offensive against
Eurocommunism, and it contrasted Moscow's actions with China's
good relations with the main Spanish Communist Party. The
Romanians also have expressed concern that the split will weaken the
Spanish party and have defended the independence and equality of
all Communist parties, but they have not directly accused the USSR
of complicity.
Comment: Both the Yugoslav and the Romanian regimes are
sensitive to what they see as Soviet meddling in the affairs of other
parties. They want to reinvigorate Eurocommunist parties, with which
they often agree on international issues. Romania and Yugoslavia
probably intend to encourage the Spanish Communists to retain their
Eurocommunist line, despite their declining political fortunes.
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Israel
West Bank
(Israeli occupied-
status to be determined)
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13 February 1984
67
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Dead
Sea
King Talal reservoir
Jordan
Leboon DAMASCUS
Mediterranean Syria
Sea
Jeruselem>
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JORDAN: Water Shortage
Abnormally low rainfall in Jordan, coupled with the lower water
flow into the Jordan Valley's East Ghor Canal, has already destroyed
the winter cereal crop, according to government officials. If the
shortage persists into spring, the US Embassy expects cereal
production for the year to drop by as much as 50 percent and
summer vegetable production by more than 90 percent, and farmers
may be forced to sell or slaughter sheep and goats. The Jordan Valley
Authority has contingency plans to ration water early next month and
progressively to curtail crop production. Jordanian and Israeli officials
have scheduled a meeting tomorrow to discuss the removal of a
sandbar that has obstructed the intake of the East Ghor Canal for the
past several months.
Comment: Low rainfall over the entire Yarmuk-Jordan basin this
year is more serious for Jordan than for Syria or Israel because of
Jordan's small water storage capacity, its reliance on water flowing
from Syria, and the lack thus far of water-sharing agreements with
Israel. Although a crisis may be avoided for now, Jordan's long-term
development plans for the Jordan Valley depend on reaching
agreements with Syria and Israel for obtaining adequate amounts of
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water from the Yarmuk River.
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