(UNTITLED)

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
39
Document Creation Date: 
January 12, 2017
Document Release Date: 
July 15, 2011
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
August 1, 1986
Content Type: 
REPORT
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6.pdf2.07 MB
Body: 
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Iq Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Directorate of Intelligence Ties to Soviet Industry East European Microelectronics: Internal Development and (~WMJK PACE NUMBERS -o3d'7- CJ TOTAL NUMBER OF COPIES DISSEM DATE EXTRA COPIES R000RD CEIVER JOB NUMBER ~a15 Seeret SOV 86-10035X IA 86-10044X August 1986 Copy 4 3 9 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Directorate of Secret Intelligence Ties to Soviet Industry East European Microelectronics: Internal Development and An Intelligence Assessment This paper was prepared by Office of Sov et Analysis, and Office of Imagery Analysis. Comments and queries are welcome and may be addressed to the Chief, Defense Industries Division, SOVAI Secret SOV 86-10035X IA 86-10044X August 1986 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 ,tivi 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret East European Microelectronics: Internal Development and Ties to Soviet Industry F_ Key Judgments The East European countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Information available Assistance (CEMA) are trying to build up their microelectronics industries as of 1 June 1986 rapidly-particularly integrated circuit (IC) development and production. was used in this report. The buildup is designed to serve fast-growing East European requirements for microelectronics components but is also a response to considerable Soviet pressure. The Soviet Union's ambitious industrial modernization program, which calls for the extensive use of computers and microelectronics systems to improve industrial productivity, is creating heavy demands for more and better ICs. The military focus of the Soviet microelectronics industry has made it difficult for Soviet IC producers to ensure adequate deliveries for commercial and industrial applications. The Soviets have therefore increas- ingly turned to Eastern Europe to help satisfy the growing demand for ICs and, especially, products incorporating ICs, to meet the goals of industrial modernization. To enhance the Bloc's efforts to acquire, develop, and produce advanced microelectronic devices, the USSR and its East European allies have set up an elaborate division of labor within CEMA. The development of coopera- tive efforts in the microelectronics field has largely been driven by the . various CEMA-level computer production programs that originated in the late 1960s. Integration has improved the technical capabilities of the Bloc members, reduced the duplication of effort in IC development, and increased the level of circuit standardization. Increased Bloc cooperation has also allowed the Soviets to better manage the legal and illegal acquisition of Western ICs and production equipment at a time of hard currency shortages and tightening Western export controls. The Soviets now are pushing their East European allies to embark on an ambitious cooperative program, known as the Comprehensive Program for Scientific and Technical Progress to the Year 2000, to upgrade Bloc production capabilities in microelectronics and several other key technology areas. The East European countries began intensive development of their IC industries only in the late 1970s, nearly 15 years after the Soviets initiated their expansion effort. Eastern Europe's microelectronics industry is small by Soviet, US, or Japanese standards. We have identified and located 22 major East European IC production plants, encompassing more than 220,000 square meters of production floorspace. By comparison, the United Secret SOV 86-10035X IA 86-10044X August 1986 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 States, Japan, and the Soviet Union have about 200, 100, and 75 plants, re- spectively. East European IC plants have been equipped largely with Western technology, and almost all major ICs known to be produced by them are based on US designs. The German Democratic Republic (GDR) and Czechoslovakia have the most advanced industries in the region. The GDR has accounted for over one-third of production facility growth in Eastern Europe since 1977. It has recently constructed a new plant in Erfurt that incorporates highly advanced vibration control and air purification systems that could allow efficient production of the most complex devices produced in the Bloc. Czechoslovakia also has added production buildings to all of its major IC plants since 1980. It recently has stepped up efforts to acquire Western technology, probably to replace equipment destroyed in a fire at its leading IC plant in August 1985. The rest of the Bloc is struggling to maintain a viable microelectronics base and has only recently started to increase investment supporting domestic production programs. Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria have all purchased new IC production lines or constructed new production facilities since the early 1980s. Progress in Hungary, however, has been seriously set back by a fire in May 1986 at its main IC plant that destroyed an estimated 50 per- cent of the country's IC production capacity. Romania has failed to keep pace with the rest of the region and has the smallest and most technologi- cally inferior IC industry in Eastern Europe. Romania has also been set back by a fire in May 1984 at its most advanced IC plant and has little hope of expanding its microelectronics base in the near term. Because of its late start and the relatively low levels of investment, Eastern Europe's IC technology and production capabilities lag behind those of the United States and Japan by at least six to eight years and Soviet capabilities by one to two years. We use as an East European benchmark the capabilities of the region's most advanced industry-the GDR's-and measure progress in two key device types, memory circuits and micro- processors. Czechoslovakia lags the GDR by about two to three years, and the other East European countries are five to 10 years behind the GDR. We estimate that the East European countries. produced an estimated 180 million ICs in 1984, compared with nearly 1 billion in the USSR and 10.5 billion in the United States. East European users of ICs rely on large numbers of Soviet and Western ICs to augment domestic production. We estimate that during the early and middle 1980s the Soviets and East Europeans obtained, both legally and illegally, at least 100 million ICs annually from the West Secret iv Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret The East European IC industry supports the Soviet Union mainly through the export of finished products, such as computers and automation equipment, that contain both Western and domestically produced circuits. Most East European products go to Soviet scientific and industrial users, but the GDR and Czechoslovakia also provide the Soviets with ICs and computer equipment that potentially have .direct military applications. The East Europeans also participate in Soviet-managed clandestine acquisition and trade diversion programs that provide the Bloc with large amounts of sophisticated Western microelectronics technology. The East European countries do not ship large numbers of ICs to the USSR. We believe only the GDR and Czechoslovakia are exporting ICs directly, and the quantities involved probably constitute no more than 2 to 3 percent of total Soviet consumption. Although data on shipments are sparse, the overall volume of ICs exported to the Soviets is probably less than 10 percent of total East European output, and these exports are almost certainly more than offset by imports of ICs from the USSR. Although official statements and investment patterns indicate that East European IC industries will continue to grow, we do not believe their production will be sufficient to fulfill the rapidly growing requirements of IC consumers for at least the next 10 years. Thus, while the goal of reducing imports of Western ICs and IC equipment is still part of the CEMA development program, these imports are likely to rise, at least over the next five years or so, as the East European nations struggle to raise the quality and increase the quantity of their IC production. Stricter adherence to regulations of the Coordinating Committee for East-West Trade Policy by the Western allies could limit Eastern Europe's access to this equip- ment, however. Limiting the availability of advanced Western technology may force the countries increasingly to use Soviet equipment and know- how and to improve their own development and production technology to keep up with increasing domestic and Soviet demands. We believe that East Germany will pull further ahead of the other East European countries in the development and production of ICs and may even challenge the USSR in some technology areas. Czechoslovakia will have to pour valuable resources into rebuilding and outfitting its recently damaged IC plant, which will hamper its efforts to upgrade production capabilities. Poland's hard currency shortages make it unlikely that it will substantially modernize its IC industry during this decade. The Bulgarians have had trouble assimilating heavy infusions of Soviet and Western technology over the past five years, and we do not foresee a significant in- crease in their capabilities until at least 1990. We believe that Hungary and Romania do not have the resources necessary to substantially upgrade IC production levels during this decade. 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Although we expect CEMA cooperation in the microelectronics field to intensify, we do not believe that these efforts will be enough to enable the East European CEMA countries to close the gap with the West in the development of ICs. At best, CEMA cooperation will serve to keep the gap from getting wider, and we believe that these countries will remain heavily dependent on Western ICs and production technology until at least the early 1990s. Secret vi Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Key Judgments Background Managing CEMA Development Furthering Industrial Integration 4 Controlling Dependence on the West 7 East European IC Industries 8 Expanding Production Capacity 8 Equipping Facilities 11 Production of Integrated Circuits 13 Reliance on Western ICs 17 Relations With the Soviets 17 Eastern Europe as a Conduit for Western IC Technology 19 Products Incorporating East European ICs 20 Integrated Circuits 21 Implications and Outlook 22 Plant Data on East European IC Producers 25 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret East European Microelectronics: Internal Development and Ties to Soviet Industry [_ In the late 1970s the East European countries of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CEMA)' stepped up efforts to develop their microelectronics industries. They have particularly stressed the devel- opment and production of integrated circuits (ICs), the key element of microelectronics technology and a fundamental determinant of success in industrial and military modernization (see insets). East European efforts are a response to growing domestic demands and to considerable pressure from the Soviets to modernize and expand the computer and microelectronics industries and provide greater support to Soviet industry. Despite impressive pro- gress in IC development and production over the past two decades, the Soviets have experienced difficulties producing advanced semiconductor devices at levels commensurate with the investment in industrial ca- pacity or with Western production (see inset, page 3).' One of the main factors contributing to the relatively low output of ICs is the fact that Soviet yield' rates have been consistently low by Western standards. Low yield rates are primarily caused by: ? Outdated and inefficient IC production and test equipment. ? Inadequate environmental control systems and poor quality control procedures. ? Low-quality raw materials, including silicon, deion- ized water, photoresists, and industrial chemicals and gases. ? Backward management practices, including a lack of flexibility and coordination, extraordinary com- partmentalization of information, and overemphasis on production quotas at the cost of quality. ' Yield is a measure of the efficiency of the chip production process that shows the percentage of devices completed in working order. Integrated Circuits Integrated circuits are semiconductor devices that combine many electronic components such as transis- tors, diodes, capacitors, and resistors on a single chip. Many ICs are fabricated on thin wafers of semicon- ductor material, usually silicon, and they are subse- quently separated and packaged individually. The wafers are processed in clean rooms-specially de- signed sections of microelectronics production facili- ties that have temperature, humidity, and dust con- trol systems. As ICs become more complex, stringent clean-room environmental control, as well as vibra- tion control, becomes vital to achieving efficient production. ICs can be defined by their relative levels of integra- tion, that is, the number of circuit functions incorpo- rated in the chip. The level of integration is usually defined by the number of transistors per chip. Tran- sistors are semiconductor devices that act primarily as electrical switches. The levels of integrated circuit complexity (Western lexicon) are shown in the follow- ing tabulation: Category Transistors Per Chip Representative Device Types Small-scale integration (SSI) Less than 1,000 256-bit memory Medium-scale integration (MSI) 1,000-9,999 1 K a memory Large-scale integration (LSI) 10,000-99,999 4K and 16K memories; 8-bit microprocessor Very-large-scale integration (VLSI) 100,000 or more 64K, 256K, and 1-megabit memories; 32-bit microprocessor 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 The Impact of Microelectronics: Applications of Integrated Circuits Soviet and East European statements and articles suggest that rapid US and Japanese advances in IC technology are causing increasing concern about the Bloc's ability to compete in the military arena and to implement industrial modernization efforts. Integrated circuits (especially microprocessors) are the critical components in modern factory automa- tion systems-consisting of robots, computer numeri- cally controlled (CNC) machine tools, minicomput- ers, and microcomputers-that are helping to fuel economic growth in the West. In the Soviet Union, the widespread introduction of automated management and process control systems into industrial plants has been given a high priority in the 12th Five-Year Plan (1986-90) and is the primary goal of the program for the development, production, and use of computer technology up to the year 2000, endorsed by the Politburo in January 1985. In Eastern Europe, indus- trial modernization has also been accorded a high priority as part of plans to increase industrial effi- ciency and output and make more efficient use of raw Developments in microelectronics also have improved the performance of military systems since the late 1970s. Advanced military systems in the West incor- porate a wide range of complex microelectronics or As a result, IC shortages appear to persist throughout the Soviet Bloc. Some much needed advanced IC types are manufactured only on a pilot basis at best, and a large share of annual Soviet IC output (perhaps as much as one-half) does not meet design require- ments or quality standards. Complaints from low- priority Soviet users as well as from Eastern Bloc countries indicate that the Soviets still have not been able to satisfy the demands within CEMA for even the most basic circuits. This paper analyzes the growing capabilities of the East European CEMA countries to produce IC de- vices and their attempts to meet Soviet requirements optoelectronic devices that are often based in large part on integrated circuits. The increasing sophistica- tion of these devices has made possible a variety of systems, including aerospace automated controls, missile guidance and delivery systems, fire control computers, "smart" munitions, and satellite naviga- tion systems. In the area of land arms fire control systems, for example, increased use in the West of digital computer technology based on increasingly complex integrated circuits has led to a dramatic reduction in computer size, weight, and power con- sumption; the ability to operate under adverse condi- tions; and reduced repair time through the use of built-in test equipment. In a May 1984 interview in Krasnaya zvezda, Mar- shal Nikolay Ogarkov, then Chief of the Soviet General Staff, acknowledged the leap in the range and destructive powers of conventional weapon sys- tems through the development of automated recon- naissance strike complexes, high-accuracy terminally guided combat systems, and electronic control sys- tems. In the strategic arena, countering or emulating the US Strategic Defense Initiative will impose large demands on Soviet advanced sensor and computer technologies-both of which depend on complex IC for ICs and associated products. It examines the political and managerial framework established in CEMA to further integration and specialization in Soviet Bloc microelectronics production. It then ex- amines the development of East European integrated circuit producers, the specific contributions of these producers to Soviet users, and how these contributions are changing over time. The appendix describes, in tabular form, all identified East European microelec- tronics plants. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret Soviet Microelectronics: Playing Catch Up The Soviet microelectronics industry has expanded rapidly over the past two decades in both technologi- cal and production capabilities. The Soviets began a large-scale construction program in the early 1960s to establish a viable and more unified microelectron- ics industry. The keystone in this expansion effort was the construction of a large microelectronics center in Zelenograd, approximately 40 kilometers northwest of Moscow. The Soviets refer to Zeleno- grad as their version of the US Silicon Valley. This center was established to help close the gap in microelectronics technology between the USSR and the United States; to coordinate development, plan- ning, and training for the Ministry of Electronics Industry; and to boost the production of advanced semiconductor devices to satisfy military objectives. Throughout the 1960s, Soviet efforts to produce microelectronics devices were hampered by inade- quate manufacturing facilities and shortages of reli- able production equipment. Obtaining Western preci- sion machinery and IC production technology in the 1960s enabled the Soviets, in the early 1970s, to achieve series production of their first successful family of IC devices, the Logika-2. The Soviets have continued to make the acquisition of foreign technol- ogy an integral element of their microelectronics program, and they have benefited substantially by examining and often copying advanced Western technologies. The Soviets have about 3 million square meters of productionfoorspace at the 74 microelectronics plants identified through imagery. If these ICfacili- ties were fully equipped with Western production equipment operated at Western standards, we believe that the USSR could process up to 40 million wafers annually for discrete semiconductor devices and ICs. Actual Soviet wafer processing capability probably is substantially lower. Although Soviet IC production capacity has grown steadily,foorspace growth rates in the mid-I 980s had declined to about 10 percent of the peak rates attained in the late 1960s. According to recent policy statements, the Soviets are now concentrating on equipping existing facilities with more advanced pro- duction equipment instead of constructing additional plants. They may have difficulty implementing this shift in the near term, however, because of deficien- cies in the quantity and quality 25X1 of IC production equipment. 25X1 Managing CEMA Development The Soviets are seeking to develop viable and compet- itive microelectronics industries throughout CEMA by emphasizing specialization and maximizing stan- dardization. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, the East European countries developed their microelec- tronics industries using independent development strategies-most of them involving heavy flows of Western technology-which resulted in a significant duplication of effort and the production of incompati- ble products. Specialization was advertised as a way to enable CEMA countries to expand their markets and realize the efficiencies of larger production runs, which result in lower costs and higher quality in IC production. Increasing Bloc integration affords additional benefits for Moscow. It fosters greater political and economic interdependency among the CEMA countries, with the eventual goal of lessening the reliance on Western technology. The Soviets also are able to shift some of the IC research, development, and production burden to their East European allies, increasing supplies and allowing Moscow to concentrate on more advanced IC programs. In addition, greater electronics standard- ization may increase the combat effectiveness of the Warsaw Pact military forces. 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Furthering Industrial Integration The development of cooperative efforts in the micro- electronics field has largely been driven by the various CEMA-level computer development programs that originated in the late 1960s. To produce a compatible family of mainframe computers it was necessary to standardize the component base throughout the par- ticipating countries. Thus, CEMA's cooperation in the production of computer equipment opened the door to the creation of a unified microelectronic element base. Although the Permanent Commission for the Radio and Electronics Industry has been a part of CEMA since 1963, Bloc microelectronics cooperation did not begin in earnest until the 1970s. The foundation was laid in December 1969 when Bulgaria, Czechoslova- kia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and the USSR signed an agreement of cooperation in the develop- ment of a family of compatible mainframe computers. The program outlined and approved by the partici- pants foresaw the creation of several computer types. Although differentiated by such characteristics as productivity, memory capacity, and range of peripher- als, these computers have in common a unified base of fundamental elements, from peripheral units to inte- grated circuits, that constitute the building blocks of The agreement boosted the production of computers and, consequently, the demand for integrated circuits in the Bloc. According to Soviet production figures, from 1970 to 1980 the volume of output of the computer industry in CEMA as a whole rose more than 600 percent. The early models, which did not even use semiconductor memory, were probably equipped predominantly with Soviet and some West- ern chips for logic and input and output functions. By the end of the 1970s, when production of CEMA's minicomputer line started and the second generation models of the Ryad family began to appear, the East European countries were importing a wide variety of Western devices (most of them illegally) for incorpora- tion in their computer systems and other products. Eastern Europe has subsequently made a concerted effort to increase domestic production capabilities for these ICs to meet the growing demands of its domes- tic users and reduce its reliance on imports. All CEMA cooperative computer efforts are coordi- nated by the Intergovernmental Commission for Co- operation in the Field of Computer Technology, estab- lished in 1969. This body, which is always chaired by a Soviet, includes a separate council on the microelec- tronics element base (see figure 1). The council coordi- nates the development and production of microelec- tronic devices for all data-processing equipment and serves as a forum for the member countries to discuss such issues as improving the quality and reliability of integrated circuits and developing the division of labor for circuit production among the Bloc nations. The first of the major accords that applied directly to CEMA microelectronics integration came in 1975, when Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, the GDR, Hungary, Poland, Yugoslavia,' and the USSR signed an agree- ment covering specialization in semiconductor instru- ments and 10 types of ICs. The agreement called for the signatories to exchange over 10 million ICs be- tween 1975 and 1980 as part of various reciprocal trade agreements to be worked out among the partici- pating countries. A follow-on accord known as the Agreement on a Common, Standardized Base of Components for Radioelectronics, Communications, and Computer Hardware was signed at the 35th CEMA Council session held in Sofia in 1981. It called for a unified system of standardized parts, special equipment, semiconductors, and special materials for their production. An accord on microprocessors was also signed at this time, possibly as part of the above agreement. In line with the general agreement, spe- cialists from the five original CEMA signatories began to develop a more standardized base of compo- nents including, among other products, radioelec- tronic and communications equipment and computer At the 36th CEMA Council session, held in June 1982, the CEMA nations signed an agreement on multilateral specialization and cooperation in the development and production of microelectronic com- ponents (including microprocessors) and pure materi- als for microelectronics. According to a Soviet journal 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret Figure 1 The Intergovernmental Commission for Computer Technology Permanent Chairman Coordinating Center Leaders of National Sections Economic Council Council of Head Designers of ES (Mainframe) Computers Bulgaria Council of Head Designers of SM (Mini) Computers Hungary Temporary Working Group on Production Equipment GDR and Test Apparatus Cuba Council on Microelectronics Element Base Poland Council on Computer Applications Romania Council on Integrated Servicing of ES Computers USSR Council on Standardization of Computer Hardware Czechoslovakia article, the goal of the accord is to achieve the "widest possible fulfillment of demands for microelectronics devices of the member countries through the deepen- ing of the international socialist division of labor." Some of the specific areas of concentration outlined in the agreement include: ? Computer-aided design (CAD): Bulgaria and the USSR. ? Instrumentation and test methods: Hungary. ? Precision optomechanics: GDR. ? Semiconductor material processing equipment: Romania. ? Large-scale and very-large-scale integrated circuit (LSI and VLSI) production equipment: USSR. ? Analysis, inspection, and metrology facilities: Czechoslovakia and the GDR. The signatories also agreed to adopt or develop stan- dardized processes and equipment to produce semi- conductor substrates; design, produce, and test LSI and VLSI circuits, including 16- and 32-bit micro- processors and very-high-speed ICs (VHSIC); and mount ICs in various types of packages. The USSR and the GDR have been relatively successful in developing equipment related to their areas of special- ization, but other programs are still in their formative stages. Finally, in December 1985, the Soviet Politburo adopted-and the CEMA Executive Committee en- dorsed-an ambitious program for science and tech- nology cooperation, known as the Comprehensive Program for Scientific-Technical Progress to the Year 2000, that calls for a restructuring of CEMA scientific-technical (S&T) and production ties. Under this program, according to Soviet Prime Minister Ryzhkov, new Soviet interbranch S&T complexes will orchestrate work on CEMA projects in priority areas and will be authorized to conclude contracts directly with counterpart East European organizations. Mi- croelectronics has already been identified as one of the five priority areas for CEMA cooperative efforts, although the exact structure for any projects under this new program remains to be publicized. The East Europeans' official response to this program has been 25X1 25X1 the part of the East Europeans-primarily because of funding concerns. It is also possible that many East European countries are worried that this program is aimed primarily at speeding up Soviet modernization efforts and will not benefit their own economic situa- tions in the near term. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 The CEMA countries are increasingly entering into bilateral cooperative development and trade accords based on reciprocal agreements for specialized pro- duction of IC products. Moscow has negotiated agree- ments with each of its East European CEMA allies to formalize joint development projects and IC ship- ments. the GDR and the Soviet Union cooperated on a project to develop the 64K dynamic random access memory (DRAM) circuit in the belief that parallel efforts in both countries would speed up the design process. These countries now have a similar agree- ment for cooperation in the development of a 256K DRAM. Within Eastern Europe, East Germany has agreed to supply bipolar ICs to Czechoslovakia in return for power transistors. Similarly, the GDR has an agreement to supply semiconductor wafers and chemicals to Bulgaria in exchange for memory chips. Most of the CEMA countries have formed intergov- ernmental commissions with their major trading part- ners to manage CEMA-level bilateral cooperation efforts. For example, according to a recent Polish journal article, in late 1985 the joint Polish- Czechoslovak intergovernmental commission signed an agreement on future cooperation and coproduction in several electronics fields (see inset). There have been numerous reports in the East Euro- pean and Soviet press on various bilateral and multi- lateral cooperative agreements on microelectronics development and trade within CEMA. These accords have included specialization in both the development of production equipment and the joint production of devices, but information on the actual impact of these efforts is hard to come by. In general, these agree- ments provide the East European countries with access to the large Soviet market for electronics, thereby making the development of indigenous IC technology more economically attractive to these na- tions. The cooperative efforts also served to focus IC development in CEMA, thus reducing duplication of effort and saving time and resources. In practice, however, cooperative efforts have not always gone as planned. For example, the East Germans and Soviets agreed Growing Polish-Czechoslovak Cooperation in Electronics In October 1985, Poland and Czechoslovakia signed an agreement on future cooperation and coproduction in the following electronics fields: ? The Kasprzak Radio Factories in Warsaw, which produce a variety of electronic devices, together with Tesla in Bratislava, will jointly develop and produce compact disks and VHS format video cas- sette recorders. Kasprzak will produce the drive mechanisms for the recorders, and Tesla will man- ufacture the electronic subassemblies. ? The Scientific Production Center for Unitra-Cemi Semiconductors in Warsaw is entering into a joint production agreement with Czechoslovakia. This agreement calls for the joint development of 64K memory chips and a new family of microprocessors. It also envisions the future development of a 32-bit microprocessor chip. ? A Polish-Czechoslovak design team, based at the Mera-Elwro Plant in Wrocfaw and at VUMs in Prague, will set up a division of labor for the production of specific types of 64K DRAM and 64K erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM) circuits. The team also will be responsi- ble for preparing the documentation for the avail- able equipment for production of Winchester-type and optical disk drives. to establish parallel programs to develop a 64K DRAM circuit, but all cooperation ended as soon as the Soviets achieved a successful design. In addition, the agreement to build a 256K DRAM calls for the GDR to develop a more difficult architecture, even though the Soviets have better computer-aided design equipment. the Soviets have refused to supply the East Germans with their most advanced CAD system, which is based on a Digital Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret Equipment Corporation VAX minicomputer. Cooper- ation is also hindered by the wide differences in IC production capabilities among the individual East The Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls European countries. the less developed Bloc members have had difficulty fulfilling the requirements of reciprocal trade agreements because of their inability to supply quality components. The Soviets have also had diffi- culty keeping East European partners supplied with certain IC devices. Bulgaria, in 1983, started producing a copy of the Motorola 6800 8-bit microprocessor be- cause it was not receiving microprocessors in the quantities promised by the Soviets. Controlling Dependence on the West One of the primary reasons for the push within CEMA to develop an indigenous microelectronics capability is the desire to lessen the Bloc's dependence on the West for ICs and production equipment. The Western embargo on high-technology equipment makes it difficult for East European countries to acquire Western technology, and economic problems within CEMA are causing severe shortages of hard currency for the acquisition of Western goods. For example, Poland in 1982 established the Coordination Commission for National Electronics R&D in "direct response to the embargo" (which was extended to include Poland after martial law was declared there in December 1981). The goal of the commission was to establish a national microelectronics industry "independent from Western countries," with sole reliance on nationally available raw materials, production facilities, and electronics know-how. Although the commission stressed self-reliance, it quickly became apparent that Western electronics technology, especially production equipment, would be needed. Poland has acquired this equipment and technology from the West illegally, The CEMA integration program has served to better manage-rather than lessen-Bloc reliance on West- ern technology. Specialization, by eliminating dupli- cation of legal imports, probably has enabled some The United States and its Western allies formed the Coordinating Committee (COCOM) in the late 1940s to control the export to the Soviet Bloc and China of technology having military applications. Discussions concerning goods that were not to be exported to the Bloc led to the establishment of multilateral lists. These lists (periodically reviewed and revised) serve to guide member governments in the execution of their national export control policies. COCOM is currently composed of the United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Portugal, Norway, the Nether- 25X1 25X1 lands, Luxembourg, Japan, Italy, Greece, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Denmark, Canada, Spain, and Belgium. Over the past 15 years, the Bloc countries have successfully circumvented COCOM controls to obtain large numbers of ICs and produc- tion equipment and related technology to help estab- lish their microelectronics industries. The United 25X1 States convinced its allies to impose an embargo on high-technology equipment after the Soviets invaded 25X1 Afghanistan in December 1979. The Bloc has since found it increasingly complicated and expensive to acquire microelectronics technology. Nearly half of all detected trade diversions involve microelectronics fabrication equipment and computers. East European participation in these tech- nology acquisition programs has increased in recent years because of rapidly broadening collection oppor- tunities afforded by the worldwide diffusion of ad- vanced products and technology. 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 East European IC Industries The East European microelectronics industry includes at least 64 integrated circuit R&D and production facilities, about 70 percent of which are concentrated in East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Poland. eve have identified and located 22 major IC production plants (see appendix and figure 2). By contrast, we have identified 74 IC production plants in the USSR, and there are about 200 in the United States and 100 in Japan. The East European IC industries have been built largely through the use of Western technology, and almost all major ICs produced by them are based on US designs. This strategy has allowed the East Euro- pean countries to develop an indigenous production capability more quickly and cheaply than would have been the case otherwise. As Western export controls have grown more restrictive during the 1980s, and as IC production equipment has become more complex and difficult to assimilate, the CEMA countries have started to turn also to the Soviets for assistance in modernizing their industries. East Germany and Czechoslovakia have the most advanced microelectronics industries in Eastern Eu- rope. The GDR works closely with the Soviet Union in IC development programs, and the two countries produce approximately the same generic IC product lines. The Soviets, however, produce more device types and in larger quantities. The Soviets have a great advantage over the the East Germans in that they have been manufacturing ICs longer, have estab- lished a larger R&D and production base, and, in general, have more advanced IC production equip- ment-especially CAD systems necessary for efficient design of complex devices. Czechoslovakia has the second most advanced IC industry in Eastern Europe. Czechoslovakia and East Germany possess similar IC technology and produce similar product lines, but the Czechoslovaks produce ICs in smaller quantities-primarily because they suffer more quality-control problems than the East Germans and consequently have lower yield rates. Further advances in IC technology will be limited over the next few years by a fire that destroyed a leading Czechoslovak R&D center in August 1985. The rest of the Bloc is struggling to maintain a viable microelectronics base and has only recently started to increase investment levels in indigenous R&D and production programs. Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria all have purchased new IC production lines or con- structed new production facilities in recent years. Progress in Hungary, however, has been slowed con- siderably by a fire in May 1986 at its main IC plant that destroyed an estimated 50 percent of the coun- try's production capacity. Romania has failed to keep pace and has the smallest and most technologically inferior IC industry in Eastern Europe. Romania's progress has also been set back by a fire in May 1984 at its most sophisticated IC production plant and has little hope of expanding its microelectronics base in the near term. Expanding Production Capacity Although Eastern Europe had established a small production capability for discrete components by the mid-1960s, major expansion of the microelectronics industry did not occur until the late 1970s-nearly 15 years after the Soviets initiated their expansion effort. The East European industry was slow in developing because it was not faced with large military, industri- al, or commercial demands for microelectronics de- vices in the early-to-mid-1960s, as were the Soviet Union and Western countries. East European demand for ICs has increased sharply in recent years, primari- ly because of industrial modernization efforts and in response to technical developments in-and interna- tional marketing opportunities created by-the West. In addition, the USSR has stepped up its demands for ICs from Eastern Europe. In an effort to meet growing IC demands, Eastern Europe increased production capacity-measured in facility floorspace-about 130 percent between 1977 and 1985. Despite these impressive expansion figures, the East European IC industry remains small when 25X1 X1 25X1' Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret Figure 2 East European Integrated Circuit Plants a - f 5 ` ) German { Democratic -> epublic Ne h. Republic of j Bel. Germany Erfurt2) re 1'2)' 12) Hermsdorf v`:-:Krakow Federal East Bs? (East Berlin Yugoslavia Union )Buc'2'est Wgavia Stara Zagora AO- Le United States Govetnmefiihas~not ,ocogad flho ineororation of Eetonia,Latviaaiid Lithuania into the Spviot Union Other bouady representation iv not necessatily authoritative, Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Figure 3 East European IC Production Floorspace by Country, 1986 GDR Czechoslovakia Poland Hungary Bulgaria Romania East Germany has accounted for over one-third of the expansion in Eastern Europe's microelectronics indus- try since 1977. It has added production floorspace to all existing IC plants and built branch plants in Erfurt and Dresden. The newly constructed Erfurt Southeast Plant is the most sophisticated in Eastern Europe. It has been constructed with highly advanced vibration control and air purification systems to allow efficient production of VLSI devices. The Soviets probably do not yet have VLSI production facilities adequate to satisfy anticipated defense-industrial needs, and= they have sent several high-level delegations to tour the Erfurt Southeast Plant to examine its layout and clean-room design, perhaps in the hope of incorporating its unique design into their own future buildings. compared with the Soviet industry. As of 1986 the Soviets had about 3 million square meters of floor- space at known plants available for the production of semiconductor devices, compared with the roughly 220,000 square meters available for IC production at the 22 identified East European plants (see figure 3). The development of Eastern Europe's integrated cir- cuit industry also has been much different from the USSR's. Analysis of Soviet microelectronics facilities has revealed that the Soviets erected a series of standardized production buildings during the 1960s and the 1970s. The Soviets may have attempted to incorporate improved clean-room design and vibration control in their buildings to allow for more efficient production of increasingly complex ICs. Eastern Eu- rope does not follow similarly standardized construc- tion procedures, and it chose not to copy Soviet designs. Its IC production facilities are a mixture of indigenous and Western designs, although the Soviets may have aided in the design of some plants. Analysis of East European plants revealed few similarities in building designs either within or between countries. Both Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria have greatly in- creased IC production floorspace in recent years. All of Czechoslovakia's major IC plants added production buildings in the early 1980s, both in response to growing demands and to raise the technological level of their products. The Bulgarians recently have begun an expansion drive to increase IC production floor- space dedicated to growing computer and disk drive production efforts. The Memory Disk Plant in Stara Zagora is being expanded and an IC production capability is being added. The Stara Zagora facility was externally complete in 1984, but plant contractors have reportedly experienced difficulty with clean- room design and equipment installations. Because of these delays, the production startup date is uncertain. The Bulgarian IC plant in Botevgrad also is being expanded. Construction of new IC fabrication facilities in East- ern Europe peaked in the late 1970s and again in 1982 and 1983 but dropped sharply in 1980 (see figure 4). Possible explanations for the decline include: ? Shortages of hard currency-triggered by the high trade deficits in many East European countries in the late 1970s-which may have limited the acquisi- tion of Western technology needed to outfit new plants. 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret Figure 4 East European IC Production Floorspace Under Construction, 1975-85 Thousand square meters ? The general cutback in investment programs in Eastern Europe that was initiated to make more resources available for consumption and to generate the export surpluses necessary to service the region's large foreign debt. Poland was particularly hard hit during this time. It had established a strong microelectronics base during the 1970s by purchasing a French turnkey plant and importing a mixture of Western technology. Poland's intensive start in microelectronics was largely offset by its economic crisis, the subsequent collapse in investment, and the strengthening of the Western embargo. Poland has over one-third more IC produc- tion floorspace than Czechoslovakia but now lags that country in both output and technology. Since 1983, Eastern Europe's construction effort has again de- creased sharply, and, as of 1986, expansion is occur- ring only at Erfurt Southeast and the Dresden ZFTM branch plant in the GDR, and at the Hungarian MEV plant in Budapest. Equipping Facilities The East Europeans have established their IC indus- try primarily through the acquisition of Western know-how and equipment. Although the patterns for each country are different, an initial practice for many was to purchase Western turnkey facilities and licenses. Poland and Hungary established their micro- electronics base by contracting with French and US firms, respectively, for technology, facility design assistance, equipment, and personnel training. Roma- nia has always been strongly reliant on Western technology and has licensed French, West German, and British IC designs. although the countries prefer Western, and especially US, technology, they have also imported Soviet and East German equipment-primarily be- cause of Western trade restrictions, but also to save hard currency and to support Bloc cooperation pro- grams (see table 1). Continuing acquisition of Western technology, however, indicates that the East Europe- ans must still rely on Western know-how and equip- ment to produce more advanced devices with greater efficiency and in larger quantities. The USSR and Eastern Europe have acquired at least several thou- sand pieces of major microelectronics fabrication equipment from the West during the last 10 years. This equipment has been used throughout the entire production process-from materials preparation to the final testing apparatus needed for sophisticated production lines. As an example of recent activity, during the latter half of 1985 Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria sharply increased acquisition efforts in the West. The Czecho- slovaks reportedly placed orders during this period for more than $250,000 worth of wafer carriers and other equipment. This represents a fivefold increase over purchases of such equipment in any previous year. The Bulgarians reportedly have also purchased record Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87TOO787ROO0300340001-6 Table 1 Selected Technology and Equipment Acquisitions by Eastern Europe Plant Description Date of Information Origin VEB Halbleiterwerk Frankfurt-Oder High-purity water system. 1985 Japan VEB Erfurt Southeast Mask aligner. 1985 United States ZFTM, Dresden Nine wet-etch chemical acid processing systems. 1983 United States Czechoslovakia Tesla Piestany 16K DRAM production line. 1978-80 Japan Tesla Piestany (probable) Four-inch wafer carriers. 1985 United States Tesla Roznov Photolithography equipment. 1983 East Germany United States VUST, Prague Sentry-7 measuring and test system. 1982 United States Bulgaria Stara Zagora Memory Disk and IC Plant Construction of IC fabrication line. Design of air conditioning systems and clean rooms. 1985 Japan Design and construction of new facilities includ- ing clean rooms. Sale of IC technology and numerically controlled machine tools. 1984 Japan Production line for 16K DRAM complementary metal-oxide semiconductors. 1985 USSR TEWA Semiconductor Factory, Warsaw Construction of IC plant. Sale of IC technology and equipment. 1978 France Cooperative development of VLSI production line. 1978 USSR CEMI Organization Attempt to obtain IC production line. 1985 Japan Hungary Microelectronics Enterprise, Budapest Two IC production lines-each with annual capacity of 10 million ICs. 1982, 1984 USSR License of IC assembly and test technology. Later attempts to acquire production technology failed. 1977 United States Mask-making machinery, step and repeat cameras on order. 1980 East Germany Diffusion furnaces, etching equipment, air condi- tioning systems and clean rooms for metal-oxide semiconductor IC plant. 1980 1980, 1977 Holland United States Austria IPRS Baneasa License of IC production technology. 1971 China Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87TOO787ROO0300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret amounts of IC production equipment totaling $210,000, probably to be installed in their new IC fabrication facility in Stara Zagora. The types of machines and the size of the orders are consistent with the requirements of a full-scale production line. We believe, however, that the East Europeans may have difficulty importing the technology they need to enhance productivity because of COCOM restrictions and hard currency constraints. Moreover, although the Bloc countries have been able to obtain COCOM- controlled equipment and technology, they have had difficulty, main- taining and repairing Western equipment and obtain- ing necessary spare parts. COCOM restrictions have made acquisition of Western technology much more expensive and difficult than in the past and have thus limited the scope and effectiveness of East European acquisitions. The East Europeans may now be forced to rely increasingly on the Soviets for the production technol- ogy to upgrade their integrated circuit industry. Hun- gary was almost totally dependent on Western IC technology and equipment throughout the early years of the industry's development but has found Western firms reluctant to transfer production technology in recent years. It has thus been forced to turn to the USSR for imports of technology and equipment. Since 1982, Hungary has purchased two production lines from the Soviet Union-one for metal-oxide semiconductor (MOS) ICs and another for bipolar ICs-each with a reported annual production capaci- ty of 10 million devices. (If these production levels are actually reached, Hungarian IC production will in- crease 175 percent over 1982 levels.) In 1980 Bulgaria purchased a 4K RAM production line from the USSR. Acquisition of Soviet equipment and technol- ogy by East European countries will help them meet internal and trade demands for devices but probably will not increase their technological capability greatly. The Soviets are unlikely to sell their most advanced engineering instrumentation and production technol- ogy to Eastern Europe unless they are involved in a joint development program in which they are likely to obtain new technology. Figure 5 Estimated East European IC Production, 1980-85 25X1 250 300 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Production of Integrated Circuits While the performance of individual countries has been mixed, Eastern Europe as a whole has shown a steady average annual growth rate in IC production of about 15 percent since 1980 6 (see figure 5). Most of the growth can be attributed to East Germany and Czechoslovakia, whose IC output has increased on an average annual basis by 21 and 22 percent, respective- ly, during this period. The domination of the GDR and Czechoslovakia in total East European produc- tion has actually grown from 56 percent in 1980 to 70 percent in 1984 (see figure 6). Although IC production growth is expected to remain strong for East Germany and Czechoslovakia, we expect their share of total East European IC output to start declining as new IC fabrication lines in Hungary and Bulgaria come on line. Table 2 presents estimates of IC production for the individual East European countries during the 1980s. Most of these figures were taken from the statistical 6 This figure appears more impressive than it really is because the IC industry in Eastern Europe is still in its infant stage, and total output figures are relatively low. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Figure 6 Shares of Total East European IC Production by Country, 1980 and 1984 yearbooks published by the countries. Czechoslovak IC output was estimated by using published produc- tion growth rates to extrapolate a single data point provided by a knowledgeable source. Bulgarian IC output was estimated by taking published figures on semiconductor production and attributing a percent- age of this to IC devices (using the semiconductor-to- IC ratio of other East European countries as a rough guide). Romania is not included in this table because its IC output is too inconsequential to have any impact on total East European production. Per capita IC production figures provide a better understanding of the East European countries' posi- tion relative to that of the West and the USSR in the production of ICs. We estimate that as of 1984 Poland was producing about one IC per person; Hungary, about two; Czechoslovakia and the USSR, three to four; and the GDR four to five. By contrast, per capita production in the United States and Japan in 1984 was 45 and 57 ICs, respectively. It should be noted, however, that these figures refer only to the quantity of production and not to the quality or technological level of ICs. If these factors were taken into account, the gap would be even wider. The leading CEMA microprocessor and memory ICs cur- rently in full series production-the 8-bit micro- processor and the 16K DRAM, respectively-are based on US chips that were introduced almost 10 years ago. The United States has started full series production of 32-bit microprocessors and a 1-megabit DRAM, and Japan will soon begin series production of 1-megabit DRAM chips. Thus, not only are the United States and Japan achieving a much higher per capita production rate, but they are also producing chips of a higher level of technology than their East European counterparts. In absolute terms, Eastern Europe's output of an estimated 181 million ICs in 1984 was far below that of Western Europe-2.9 billion-and the United States-10.5 billion (see figure 7). Eastern Europe's share of world IC production has also decreased from an estimated 1.2 percent in 1980 to 0.8 percent in 1984 (see figure 8). Thus, despite some impressive gains in East European IC production since 1980, the gap between the CEMA countries and the West in overall output of integrated circuits is extremely wide and growing wider.r Eastern Europe's low IC production levels can be explained by a combination of low capacity and poor yield rates. A late start in the production of ICs and the lack of an established electronics production base on which to build have hampered industrial develop- ment. In addition, the East Europeans are hindered by 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret Table 2 East European IC Production by Country, 1980-85 Country 1980 1981 Hungary 9 15.6 15.6 Bulgaria b 4.0 4.1 Total c 111.0 119.0 Reported in national statistical yearbooks. b Estimated. c Columns may not add to totals given because of rounding. 1982 1983 1984 1985 128.0 144.0 181.0 230.0 longstanding problems at the plant level that have contributed to low yield rates-especially for the more advanced circuits. Primary problems include: ? Poor-quality-and often outdated-production equipment. ? Low-quality raw materials used in wafer processing, including electronics-grade silicon, industrial chemi- cals and gases, and deionized water. ? Shortages of skilled labor. Western IC industries have paid great attention to developing precise environmental and process con- trols-not only to increase product yield rates, but also to ensure plant safety. Microelectronics fabrica- tion requires the use of pressurized gases as well as chemicals that are toxic, explosive, or both. Strict observance of safety procedures is thus extremely important. Inadequate safety and process control, as well as possible building design flaws, can have catastrophic consequences, as evidenced by the recent fires at IC plants in Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Hungary (see inset). even East Germany is suffering low yield rates on its microprocessor chips. As of April 1984 the East German VEB Karl Marx Plant in Erfurt was achieving a yield rate of 11 to 12 percent using 3-inch wafers for the U880 micro- processor (a copy of the Zilog Z-80 chip, introduced in Figure 7 IC Production by Major World Region, 1984 Eastern Europe USSR Western Europe Japan United States the United States in 1978). The early yield rate for 25X1 the GDR's next generation of microprocessor, the 16-bit U8000, was 2 to 3 percent for initial production 25X1 lots at the Erfurt plant.' By contrast, Western IC ' Production of the U880 using 4-inch wafers was to start at the new plant in Erfurt Southeast in May 1984, so these yield rates have probably dropped somewhat while technical problems involved Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Figure 8 Share of World IC Production by Country or Region, 1980 and 1984 The Impact of Inadequate Safety Standards: The Hungarian Industrial Accident Percent On 26 May 1986 afire destroyed Hungary's largest and most advanced integrated circuit producer-the main Microelectronics Enterprise (ME V) plant in Budapest. This plant was considered a showplace facility, and General Secretary Gorbachev reportedly was to visit it in June 1986. The Hungarians have estimated total damages from the fire at $30-45 million, including the cost of two recently acquired Soviet IC production lines. Although authorities are still investigating the cause of the fire, we believe it may have resulted from inadequate safety and pro- cess control-an area in which the East European microelectronics industries have historically been USSR Eastern Europe 4.7 0 8 . United States 49.2 At the time of the fire, MEV was stepping up production on the two Soviet lines-each of which had a rated annual capacity of 10 million ICs-and was constructing a new production building that was intended to produce chips of even greater sophistica- tion. We estimate that in 1985 Hungary produced about 23 million ICs, and we believe that output may now drop 50 percent as a result of the fire. Hungary's two other IC plants probably will not be able to make up for the lost production, and the country will be hard pressed to meet domestic demands-especially in the computer, telecommunications, and industrial machinery industries. manufacturers typically cannot afford to mass- produce a circuit unless they can achieve at least an 85-percent yield rate. At rates below this, a firm would not be able to offer the chip at competitive prices. Czechoslovakia has also been plagued with quality problems in the manufacture of ICs. the Tesla Piestany Plant was achieving a yield rate of only 5 to 10 percent in 1982 on its copy of the US Intel 8080 microprocessor. Within days of the fire, the Hungarians began con- tacting officials in the USSR, East Germany, and Czechoslovakia, as well as West European firms, to negotiate joint ventures and equipment-leasing schemes to replace equipment destroyed in the fire and to obtain ICs to help meet domestic require- ments. Nevertheless, we estimate that, even with large-scale government support, it will take the Hun- garians a minimum of two years to rebuild the plant, acquire new production equipment, and gear up to previous production levels. This accident has severely set back Hungary's electronics development program and will hurt its long-range economic plans to become a major exporter of microelectronics-based equip- ment by 1993. 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret Overall, we judge that Eastern Europe's IC produc- tion capabilities lag those of the United States and Japan by at least six to eight years and Soviet capabilities by one to two years. We use as an East European benchmark the capabilities of the region's most advanced industry-the GDR's-and we mea- sure progress in two key device types, memory circuits and microprocessors (see inset). Czechoslovakia lags the GDR by two to three years, and the other East European countries are five to 10 years behind the GDR. Reliance on Western ICs The East European countries import large quantities of ICs from the West to augment domestic produc- tion. These imports, which we believe to be larger than Soviet deliveries, include advanced circuits used for reverse engineering and for direct use in domestic computers and automation equipment, as well as large numbers of standard logic chips (see figure 9). We estimate that the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe now obtain over 100 million ICs annually from the West. One of the several important Western sources for these circuits has been the Swiss firm Allimex, which, has been offer- ing increasing numbers of US and Japanese ICs to the GDR since at least September 1983. Earlier ship- ments by Allimex were relatively small, but allegedly contained COCOM-controlled chips. In 1984 Allimex increased the quantities and the level of sophistication of ICs offered to the East Germans. The quantities shipped that year totaled in the millions and included advanced 16-bit microprocessors. The Swiss firm has also sold hundreds of thousands of COCOM- controlled memory circuits to the GDR, including sophisticated 256K EPROMs, 256K DRAMs, and 64K static RAMs. Other evidence of CEMA's increased use of Western ICs and equipment is provided by a recent article on the Hungarian IC industry in a British journal. According to the article, Hungarian IC imports from the United States, Japan, and West Germany more than doubled (in value terms) in 1984 from the previous year. More than 70 percent of Hungarian semiconductor imports now come from hard currency sources. This trend is likely to continue as Hungary attempts to make up for lost production capacity as a result of the fire at its leading IC plant. Figure 9 IC Imports and Exports for Eastern Europe GDR and Czech microprocessors and logic chips Microprocessors and memory chips Advanced ICs and standard logic chips There is a substantial flow of microelectronic devices from Eastern Europe to the Soviet Union, and the level of support has increased significantly in recent years. Although the total quantities involved do not represent a large proportion of total Soviet IC con- sumption, they fill an important niche in providing circuits that, go pri- 25X1 marily into civilian applications. This allows the Sovi- ets to concentrate scarce development and production resources on higher priority IC projects-including those for which the Soviets cannot rely upon foreign Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Comparative Levels of East German, Soviet, and US IC Technology Memory and microprocessor integrated circuits are generally the trendsetters for microelectronics ad- vances, and production technologies developed in these fields are usually applied to other types of ICs. Memory ICs store large volumes of information in the form of electrical charges, while microprocessors are ICs that provide, in one chip, functions equivalent to those contained in the central processing unit of a computer-arithmetic capabilities and some memo- ry. To understand more fully the differences in microelectronics state of the art between the United States, the Soviet Union, and East Germany, it is useful to compare these technologies individually.E The 64K DRAM is the most advanced memory device serially produced in the Soviet Bloc. Initial production of this device began in the United States in 1978, and full series production started in 1980. The Soviets achieved initial production of a 64K DRAM in 1979 and began small-scale series produc- tion prior to 1984. The Soviets probably have suffi- cient quantities of these chips to satisfy high priority military requirements, but we believe that production problems have prevented their widespread use in civilian applications. The East Germans achieved initial production of their version of the 64K DRAM in 1982 and began low-volume series production at the Erfurt Southeast Plant in 1985. Thus, the Soviet Bloc lags the United States by two to four years in 64K DRAM production. The gap is even wider when the higher quality and quantity of US production are factored in, and the United States is increasing its lead in the development of more advanced DRAM circuits. The United States achieved series produc- tion of the 256K DRAM in 1984 and recently started full series production of a 1-megabit chip. Neither the USSR nor East Germany is known to have achieved even small-scale production of either chip, and they will probably have to either produce or acquire more advanced production and testing equipment and over- come problems in quality and process control and materials purity to master the complexity of ad- vanced VLSI production. The 16-bit device is the most advanced type of microprocessor produced in volume in the Soviet Bloc. The USSR probably achieved limited series production of its 16-bit microprocessors by the early 1980s. These products-the K581, K586, and K588-include indigenous and copied Western archi- tectures. The most advanced Soviet 16-bit micro- processor, the K1810-based on the US Intel 8086 chip-entered initial production in 1983 and may now be in low-volume series production. The East Germans took a different approach from the Soviets, copying the US Zilog Z8000 16-bit microprocessor and achieving initial production of their U8000 in 1984. As of early 1985 the East Germans were producing pilot lots of 1,000 of these devices a month at the Erfurt Microelectronics Plant. The US firm Intel achieved initial production of its 16-bit 8086 microprocessor in 1977 and started full series pro- duction in 1978. Thus, the Soviet Bloc lags the United States in the production of 16-bit micro- processors by six to seven years. The US lead over the Bloc countries is even wider when the develop- ment of more advanced microprocessor devices is factored in. The United States achieved series pro- duction of 32-bit microprocessors in 1985, whereas the Soviets and East Germans are not known to have achieved even initial production of an equivalent device. Microprocessors are much more difficult to design and produce than memories, and this field is even more dependent on computer-aided design sys- tems-an area in which we believe the USSR and East Germany are at least 10 years behind the West. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret sources of supply. In general, East European contribu- tions to Soviet microelectronics capabilities take three primary forms: ? Reexport of Western ICs and IC manufacturing equipment. ? Shipments of electronic products such as radios, computers, computer peripherals, robots, and nu- merically controlled machine tools that incorporate ICs. ? Direct shipments of domestically produced integrat- ed circuits. The East European countries rely on the Soviet market to sell their ICs and related products to help offset their purchases of Soviet goods such as energy and raw materials. Despite the increased reliance, however, we do not believe that the Soviets have become dependent on Eastern Europe for any critical integrated circuit types. We have no evidence that Eastern Europe produces any major IC type that the 25X1 Soviets do not manufacture themselves. Although information in this area is insufficient to make hard judgments, we believe that the most significant East European contributions to Soviet microelectronics capabilities come in the first two categories. Although the East European countries- struggling to build up their own industries rapidly- use much of the technology acquired from the West for their own development activities, we believe that they funnel significant amounts of Western technol- ogy directly to the Soviets for reverse engineering and other purposes. In addition, the East Europeans incor- porate Western ICs in their computers and other electronics-based products to increase the quality and reliability of these goods, many of which are shipped to Soviet users. Thus, the Soviets benefit from these cooperative arrangements through the increased ac- cess to Western technology and the delivery of more reliable East European machinery and equipment t The East Euro Pans in turn gain from ? Export of indigenously manufactured products con- taining Western IC technology. ? Reexport of Western ICs and IC manufacturing technology as part of Soviet clandestine acquisition and trade diversion programs. East European computer equipment, machine tools, robots, and other microelectronics-based products im- ported by the Soviets contain varying amounts of 25X1 Western circuits and technology. Bulgaria and Hungary still rely al- most exclusively on Western circuits and other tech- nology in the production of this equipment. 25X1 25X1 25X1 greater access to Soviet markets and technology, East European foreign trade organizations are also 25X1 which allows these countries to develop their IC active in acquiring ICs and'related equipment for the industries more rapidly than they would be able to do Soviets. on their own. Eastern Europe as a Conduit for Western IC Technology Eastern Europe is becoming an increasingly impor- tant source of Western microelectronics technology for the Soviets. The primary forms that these trans- fers take include: the Hungarian trade organization Elektromo- dul reexports almost half of the electronic parts it ' USSR-East European joint development of Ryad mainframes and SM minicomputers resulted from CEMA cooperative programs begun in the early 1970s. 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 acquires to the Soviet Union and other CEMA coun- tries. Bulgaria, tried to purchase 500 IBM PC/XT personal computers in 1985, most of which were to go to users in Czechoslo- vakia, Hungary, and the USSR. A primary purpose of the CEMA-wide efforts to acquire Western technology has been to exploit a wide variety of Western IC technology to determine what designs best meet the needs and production capabili- ties of the individual countries. The Soviet Union and Eastern Europe have been very successful in exploit- ing this technology to produce copies of Western circuit designs. =the Soviets have been pressing their allies to standardize in key IC areas but are meeting resistance from some East European countries that have expend- ed significant resources in developing programs based on alternate technologies. Products Incorporating East European ICs As part of CEMA's cooperative program to develop and produce a compatible family of mainframe com- puters and minicomputers, each East European coun- try ships computer systems or peripheral units to the USSR (see figure 10). According to a recent Soviet journal article, the volume of computer trade within CEMA rose by a factor of 32 from 1970 to 1983. This equipment is produced using a combination of Soviet, East European, and Western ICs. For example,0 Poland's highest quality floppy disk drive and printer are produced exclusively for the Soviet Union and are not available to Polish users. In addition, approximately 90 percent of the Polish-made Mera-60 minicomputers are shipped to Soviet users. The Mera-60 is built with a Soviet processor and logic chips as well as some Czechoslo- vak ICs. However, the Poles are now using more and more chips from the US firm Texas Instruments, which, can often be pur- chased at -half the price" of Soviet ICs. According to an East German journal, 60 percent of the total exports of the GDR's Robotron Combine go to the USSR. These shipments have included over 450 mainframe computers since 1975. Of the 322 ES-1055 and ES-1055M mainframe computers-the GDR's latest models-produced by the end of 1983, Figure 10 Intra-CEMA Flow of Computer Equipment ? Mainframe computers (GDR) ' Magnetic tape drives (GDR) ' Printers (Poland) ? Minicomputers (Poland, Hungary) ? Card readers (Czechoslovakia) ? Computer terminals (Hungary) ? Magnetic disk drives (Bulgaria) almost 90 percent were exported, mostly to the USSR. The GDR has also started exporting personal computers to the Soviets. According to an East Ger- man open-source article, the first of 5,000 PCs des- tined for the USSR was delivered in May 1986. Czechoslovakia shipped over $750 million worth of computer equipment to the Soviets during the period from 1981 to 1985, including photoelectric punch tapes and disks, card punch units, digigraphs, key- boards, plotters, and other computer hardware. Eastern Europe also exports to the Soviets a wide variety of other electronic equipment that incorpo- rates ICs. Two of the most important examples are radio and television transmitters and digital controls 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret for machine tools. As of early 1981 more than 800 radio and TV transmitters produced by Czechoslova- kia's Tesla Hloubetin Plant were operating in the USSR. According to a Czechoslovak trade journal, the latest transmitters contain semiconductor devices throughout, including ICs. As an example, the new Tesla SRV 10 medium-wave transmitter employs the MDA 2020 amplifier IC produced at the Tesla ? Bulgaria has a licensing agreement with Fanuc/ Fujitsu of Japan to produce CNC controllers. In fact, Bulgaria provides full service for all Fanuc controllers sold throughout CEMA. Bulgaria supplies 40 percent of CEMA's electronic controls requirements. Bulgaria also has a license with the US firm Prab to manu- facture robots and has developed a capability to produce 1,000 robots annually, many of which are Roznov Plant. Eastern Europe has been a major exporter of machine tools but, in the past decade, has encountered prob- lems competing because control systems produced in the region were viewed as below world state of the art. In response to this problem, the East European coun- tries have focused more attention on the design of such systems and the need for incorporation of micro- electronic devices. Eastern Europe still lags considera- bly behind the West in this area, but, according to reports in various East European journals, several countries have developed microprocessor-based con- trol systems in recent years, some of which have been delivered to Soviet users: ? Poland has developed a microcomputer (the SM 50/40) that is reportedly suitable for controlling machine tools. ? The Czechoslovak firms ZPA Kosire and Tesla Kolin, working in conjunction with the Tesla VUST and VUOSO Prague research institutes, have devel- oped the NS series of CNC control systems based on the Intel 8080A microprocessor. ? The Romanian firm ITC Cluj-Napoca is offering its three-axis SPL-400 machine tool with a control system based on the Intel 8080 chip. ? The East German firm VEB Numerik Karl Marx produces the CNC 600 numerical control system, which uses a multiprocessor structure based on the U880 microprocessor. ? Hungary's Electronic Measuring Instrument Works produces the Hunor line of microprocessor-based CNC control systems. Hunor control systems have been exported to a number of countries, including the Soviet Union. shipped to the Soviets. We believe the East European countries are running an overall trade surplus with the USSR in the areas of computers and other microelectronics-based products. Eastern Europe uses these exports to offset purchases of Soviet energy and raw materials. The surplus in this trade category is likely to increase over the next five to 10 years as CEMA-level cooperative efforts expand in other areas dependent on microelectronics, such as robotics and flexible manufacturing systems. On the basis of reported East European shipments of computer equipment to the Soviet Union, we estimate that as much as 75 percent of the region's ICs end up in products exported to Soviet users. This figure differs, of course, by country. Those CEMA members that are heavily oriented toward the Soviets, such as Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria, probably export an even higher percentage of their IC output. The East Germans, who use relatively more indigenously devel- oped IC technology for domestic applications than other East European countries, probably ship a lower percentage of their ICs to the Soviets. Integrated Circuits We estimate that direct exports of integrated circuits constitute only a small portion of total East European IC output. We believe that only the GDR and Czechoslovakia currently are producing ICs for direct use in the Soviet market. Although data on shipments are sparse, the overall volume of exported ICs is probably less than 10 percent of total East European output. a large number of the ICs produced in East Germany either are exported directly to the USSR or sent there as Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 components in other GDR-manufactured equipment. For example, more than 70 percent of the MOS circuits 9 produced in the GDR are exported to the Soviet Union. The quantities involved represent only a small percentage of total Soviet IC consumption. the East Germans shipped from 6 million to 12 million ICs to the Soviets during 1984. This equates to less than 1 percent of estimated Soviet IC production that year. the Soviets have been exerting considerable pressure on East German and Czechoslovak IC producers since the second half of 1984 for a significant increase in the delivery of ICs. The East German VEB Microelectronics Karl Marx Plant in Erfurt and the VEB Halbleiterwerk in Frankfurt-Oder were asked to quadruple deliveries to the USSR in 1984, for a total shipment of 6 million devices. The ICs that are probably involved in these deliveries include the U880 microprocessor made at the Erfurt plant and low-power Schottky transistor- transistor logic (LSTTL) devices produced at the VEB Halbleiterwerk Plant. the GDR and the USSR have an agreement stipulating that the East Germans will develop LSTTL devices, while the Soviets would develop complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) chips. The GDR shipped 4-6 million LSTTL ICs to the Soviets in 1983, but in 1984 was informed that the Soviets had developed their own LSTTL capability and therefore needed only 3-4 million pieces. This requirement was later raised to 12 million when the Soviet devices proved to be markedly inferior to those produced in To bolster domestic IC consumption, East European countries import a substantial number of chips from the USSR. Most East European countries do not manufacture the full range of ICs needed for the production of computer systems and peripherals, and they therefore purchase microprocessors, 16K DRAMs, and other circuits from the Soviets. For example,) I the GDR obtains about 50 percent of the chips it uses from the Soviets, including a 16-bit microprocessor that the East Germans plan to use in their latest personal computer, the A7100,10 which was displayed at the 1986 Leipzig Spring Fair. In addition, the Czechoslo- vaks rely on Soviet 16K DRAMs and other LSI memory chips in the production of their SM-4 mini- computer. The East European countries will increase their microelectronics production capacities through capital investment and imports of manufacturing and test equipment and technology. We believe, however, that production of ICs in Eastern Europe will not be sufficient to fulfill the rapidly growing requirements of computer and automated equipment producers throughout CEMA, at least over the next 10 years. While the goal of reducing the dependence on West- ern IC technology is still part of the CEMA develop- ment program, acquisitions are likely to rise, at least over the next five years or so, as the East European nations struggle to raise the quality and increase the quantity of their IC production. Stricter adherence to COCOM regulations by the Western allies could limit Eastern Europe's access to this equipment, however. Limited availability of advanced technology from the West may force the countries to increase their reli- ance on the USSR and to improve their own R&D efforts and production technology to keep up with increasing domestic and Soviet demands. Within Eastern Europe, the microelectronics indus- tries of each country have progressed quite differently and must be viewed separately to anticipate future 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret developments and problems. By 1990, we expect the following for the six countries: ? East Germany. The recent push to increase micro- electronics production will be intensified. If plans to add three new production buildings to East Ger- many's most sophisticated IC plant are realized, the country's capability for producing advanced devices will at least triple. Although the GDR will continue to lag behind the USSR in IC technology, the rapid progress of its microelectronics industry will make East German products increasingly attractive to the Soviets-possibly for military use. East Germany will probably pull further ahead of the other East European countries and continue to dominate devel- opment and production in the region. ? Czechoslovakia. Resources earmarked for industry improvement will need to be diverted to repair the Tesla Piestany Plant-severely damaged in an Au- gust 1985 accident. This will hamper Czechoslova- kia's IC design capabilities for the next few years and will divert resources that could have been used to upgrade IC production. ? Poland. Antiquated plants and production equip- ment will make it difficult for Poland to improve its technological base. Hard currency shortages will make it impossible to modernize its industry sub- stantially in the near term, causing Poland's techno- logical level to continue to slip relative to levels in the West, the USSR, the GDR, and Czecho- slovakia. ? Bulgaria. Bulgaria has recently doubled its IC production floorspace and has embarked on a plant modernization program that includes purchases of Western equipment to increase production capacity and improve IC reliability. Past efforts to incorpo- rate Western technology have met with little suc- cess, however, and we do not foresee a significant increase in domestic capabilities until at least 1990. ? Hungary. Hungary's early lack of commitment to its IC industry will force it to play catchup with the Bloc and the West. Although recently purchased Soviet production lines may increase production nearly 200 percent over 1982 levels, device sophisti- cation will remain relatively low. Moreover, a fire in May 1986 at Hungary's Microelectronics Enter- prise seriously damaged manufacturing capabilities there, and Budapest has been seeking Soviet and Western assistance to offset production shortfalls. We believe, therefore, that Hungary will be forced to continue importing large quantities of more advanced ICs from the West to fill domestic demands. ? Romania. Romania's inability to foster independent R&D efforts, and its strong reliance on Western technology, will ensure its last place standing in Eastern Europe in IC production. Furthermore, because of its poor economic situation, Romania will have great difficulty replacing the equipment for MOS large-scale IC production that was destroyed in the recent fire. As a result, we do not foresee Romania gaining an LSI capability by 1990. We believe that, as a whole, Eastern Europe will be 25X1 able to maintain its IC production growth rate at levels similar to those achieved during the first half of the 1980s. The GDR and Bulgaria will probably show the greatest growth in production because of recent investment programs. The dominance of East Germany and Czechoslovakia in overall East Europe- an IC output will probably start to fall as they shift production to the next generation of microprocessor and DRAM memory chips and as the new production programs accelerate in Hungary and Bulgaria. To increase production and improve the quality of its ICs, Eastern Europe will remain dependent on the West both for equipping existing plants and for developing specialized buildings for VLSI production. Eastern Europe's lack of standardized IC production facilities may hinder its ability to diffuse technology and produce VLSI devices. Western industry has found it necessary to develop completely new building types with improved clean-room design and vibration control for these types of circuits. East Germany's new building design at the Erfurt branch plant may consequently become the standard for the region as other countries begin production of VLSI devices. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 We expect continued and possibly increased Soviet demand for East European microelectronic devices. Eastern Europe may grow increasingly reluctant to part with its ICs because of growing domestic de- mands and industrial modernization efforts. Despite CEMA's endorsement of the Soviet-sponsored S&T 2000 program, the East European countries may resist strong Soviet management of domestic R&D programs in an effort to maintain some autonomy over the development of their own industries. We expect that the delivery of computers and other microelectronics-based products will continue to be the dominant East European electronics-related con- tribution to the Soviets. CEMA cooperative computer production programs are expanding rapidly, and East European shipments are likely to continue growing in this area. In addition, the Soviets are pushing their CEMA allies for increased cooperation in other areas such as robotics and the development of flexible manufacturing systems that will require heavy contri- butions from East European IC producers. These developments probably will push the Soviet-East European trade balance for these products even fur- ther in favor of Eastern Europe. The Soviets' own output of ICs and related products will be increasing- ly needed to support Gorbachev's ambitious modern- ization program and therefore will not be widely available for export. CEMA cooperation efforts have enhanced the IC production capabilities of the East European countries by allowing them, through increased specialization, to concentrate their limited resources on a narrower range of development and production activities. Intra- CEMA trade in microelectronics equipment has risen steadily as countries increasingly enter into bilateral production and reciprocal trade agreements. On the negative side, however, the wide disparity in the technical levels of the East European countries has offset some of these benefits, as the less developed countries have not always been able to supply their trading partners with reliable equipment and ICs. The effectiveness of CEMA cooperation efforts has also been constrained by the unwillingness of the Soviets to share their own technology fully with their East European allies. Soviet and East European state- ments, the ambitious goals of the S&T 2000 program, and the increasingly costly challenge of keeping pace with Western developments all suggest that CEMA microelectronics cooperation and specialization will intensify. It is doubtful, however, that these efforts will enable these countries to close the gap with the West in IC development and production. At best, we believe that the cooperative efforts of the CEMA countries will serve to keep the gap from getting wider and that most of the region will remain heavily dependent on Western ICs and production technology throughout the 1980s. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87TOO787ROO0300340001-6 Appendix Plant Data on East European IC Producers Plant Name/Geographic Coordinates Alternate Name (Production IC Product Lines a Total Produc- Association) tion Building Floorspace (square meters) b Bulgaria (Ministry of Electronics and Ma- chine Building) Botevgrad Botevgrad IC Plant 4254 15N 0234730E Botevgrad Science Production MOS, 4K RAM, 4k 11,324 Combine for Semiconductors DRAM 2,872 U/C Computer Memory Disk and IC Plant c 422529N 025391E OZZU/Association of Plants for Memory Devices Czechoslovakia (Ministry of Electrical Engineering) Lanskroun Tesla Lanskroun Tesla Combine HY 7,122 495438N 0163609E Piestany Tesla Piestany d Tesla Combine CMOS, 16K DRAM 9,323 483540N 0174920E NMOS, 8-bit MP Prague VUST/A. S. Popov Research Tesla Combine CMOS, SSI, MSI, 827 Institute for Communications Equipment LSI 500145N 0142553E Roznov Tesla Roznov Tesla Combine RAM, ROM, MP, 18,800 492743N 0180739E TTL, MOS, BP, LSI East Germany (Ministry of Electrical Technology and Electronics) Berlin VEB Television Electronics Plant Microelectronics Combine HY, OE 12,855 522724N 0133157E ZFTM/Center for Research and Micro- Formerly Institute for Microelec- 16-bit MP; 64K, 5,099 electronics Technology 510805N 0134645E tronics, Dresden Microelectronics Combine 16K, and 4K RAM; VLSI ZFTM Branch/Center for Research and Microelectronics Combine 5,280 Microelectronics Technology 3,188 U/C 510743N 0110053E Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87TOO787ROO0300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87TOO787ROO0300340001-6 Plant Data on East European IC Producers (continued) Country Plant Name/Geographic Coordinates Alternate Name (Production Association) IC Product Lines a Total Produc- tion Building Floorspace (square meters) b VEB Mikroelektronik "Karl Marx" Erfurt 505826N 0110053E Formerly Funkwerk Erfurt Micro- electronics Combine MOS, CMOS, MP, EPROM, RAM, ROM 10,525 VEB Erfurt Sued Ost (ESO) 505700N 0110503E Microelectronics Combine MOS, LSI, 16K/64K DRAM, 8/16-bit MP 6,755 6,755 U/C VEB Halbleiterwerk Frankfurt-Oder (HFO) 521730N 0142825E Microelectronics Combine TTL, CMOS, MP, SRAM (over 200 product types) 26,148 Hermsdorf VEB Ceramics Plant Combine Hermsdorf 505355N 0115100E Electrical Engineering Combine HY, IC 1,865 REMIX Radio Engineering Enterprise 472922N 0190748E Microelectronics Enterprise d 473442N 0190547E HY, MP, NMOS BP, OE 5,168 1,350 U/C Tunsgram/United Incandescent Lamp and Electric Company (EIVRT) 473455N 0190430E 4K DRAM, TTL, 4K PROM, LN 9,702 Poland (Ministry of Metallurgy and Machine Building) Krakow Krakow Unitra-Telpod Electronic Works 500255N 0195750E Scientific Production Center of Hybrid Microelectronics and Resistors LSI, HY 29,356 Warsaw Plant Ratuszowa 521531N 0210152E Tewa Semiconductor Factory 521054N 0210008E MP, BP, MOS, TTL, LSI (8080 MP) 10,908 Unitra-Dolam, Research and Production Center for Electronic Components and Equipment HY 5,329 510537N 0170348E Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87TOO787ROO0300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87TOO787ROO0300340001-6 Plant Data on East European IC Producers (continued) Romania (Ministry of Machine Building Industry) Bucharest Plant Name/Geographic Coordinates Alternate Name (Production IC Product Lines a Total Produc- Association) tion Building Floorspace (square meters) b Electronics Parts Plant IC, MP 2,651 442631N 0260915E 1. Radio and Semiconductor Plant All organized under the Industrial TTL, LN, BP (over 4,327 Baneasa (IPRS) 2. Microelectronics d Center for Electronics and Com- puter Techniques 200 types) MOS, LSI, OE 9,821 3. Center-of Scientific Research and Engi- RAM, ROM, LSI 6,176 neering Technology for Semiconductors (CCSITS) 443101N 0260656E a IC Product Lines BP - bipolar integrated circuit CMOS - complementary metal-oxide semiconductor DRAM - dynamic random access memory EPROM - erasable programmable read-only memory HY - hybrid integrated circuit IC - integrated circuit, specific device type unknown LN - linear device LSI - large-scale integration IC MOS - metal-oxide semiconductor MP - microprocessor MSI - medium-scale integration IC NMOS - N-channel metal-oxide semiconductor OE - optoelectronic device PROM - programmable read-only memory RAM - random access memory ROM - read-only memory SRAM - static random access memory SSI - small-scale integration IC TTL - transistor-transistor logic VLSI -very-large-scale integration IC b U/C-Indicates new production building under construction. c Plants externally complete, but work in progress on clean rooms and air purification systems. d Building destroyed or damaged by fire. e IPRS, Microelectronica, and CCSITS are one plant and are collocated. The Romanians, however, refer to them as three separate entities. NOTE: The following cities reportedly have IC production plants, but the plants have not been confirmed on imagery: Bulgaria - Stara Zagora East Germany - Berlin Czechoslovakia - Blatna Poland - Gdynia Hradec Kralove Liptovskiy Hradek Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87TOO787ROO0300340001-6 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6 Secret Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/15: CIA-RDP87T00787R000300340001-6