THE SOVIET CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS INDUSTRY: ITS ROLE IN ECONOMIC EXPANSION

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January 1, 1986
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Directorate ofCCCCI` Intelligence 25X1 The Soviet Construction Materials Industry: Its Role in Economic Expansion Secret SOV 86-10002 January 1986 Copy 4 7 3 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Intelligence 25X1 in Economic Expansion The Soviet Construction Materials Industry: Its Role Office of Soviet Analysis. Comments and 25X1 25X1 queries are welcome and may be directed to the Chief, Economic Performance Division, SOVAF- Secret SOV 86-10002 Januarv1986 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret The Soviet Construction Materials Industry: Its Role in Economic Expansion Key Judgments Mikhail Gorbachev's aggressive modernization program will challenge the Information available construction materials industry to supply more and better quality building as of 15 December 1985 products for renovating and expanding production facilities. In addition, was used in this report. his program to improve consumer welfare depends, in part, on more and better housing. Whether the industry can meet these challenges depends on its ability to overcome a number of problems that have contributed to its deteriorating performance over the past decade. Growth in the production of construction materials slowed abruptly between 1975 and 1982, when output rose on the average by only 1.5 percent annually. Factors contributing to slow production growth included the deteriorating quality and shortage of raw materials, aging plant and equipment, inadequate investment, shortages of labor, irregular supplies of energy, and transportation bottlenecks. These deficiencies were exacerbat- ed by the fragmentation of administrative responsibility for the planning, production, and distribution of construction materials. Performance improved slightly during 1983-85, because of increases in industrial capacity and labor productivity. Growth, however, is still well below the rates necessary to assure an adequate supply of materials to meet the newly promulgated investment plans for the balance of the decade. The poor record of the industry has had a substantial negative impact throughout the economy. Shortages of materials have occurred consistently since the mid-1970s, resulting in construction delays, plant shutdowns, and worker layoffs. Major sectors of the economy have been affected by these shortfalls in recent years: ? Soviet nuclear power stations under construction have faced shortages of cement and prefabricated concrete. ? The campaign for a vast improvement in rural housing has floundered from severe shortages of construction materials, especially wall and roofing materials. ? Siberian oil-drilling sites and pipeline construction projects are experi- encing shortages of cement. ? Facilities supporting construction within the defense sector continue to be short of reinforced concrete, cement, and brick. iii Secret SOV 86-10002 January 1986 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret Soviet officials have long been aware of the problems confronting the industry. Official resolutions and numerous articles in the Soviet press have recommended the expansion of capacity, automation, and conservation of energy and raw materials. Investment, however, has been inadequate; there has been little addition to the industry's capacity since 1980. Moreover, the limited success in automation has hampered Soviet efforts to improve substantially the quality of materials produced and reduce the labor intensiveness of the industry. There has been no effort to consolidate administrative control over construction materials production and distribu- tion. The impact of these constraints has been magnified by Moscow's inability to move ahead on the economywide conservation of construction materials. As a result, Moscow has had to increasingly rely on imports of these materials, especially insulation and refractory materials. By 1984, imports had reached $675 million-nearly 40 percent of which was paid in hard currency. Many of the factors that contributed to poor performance in 1976-82 are deeply rooted in the system. If Gorbachev's modernization program is to succeed, increased attention to the industry's problems is in order. The General Secretary obviously hopes that deemphasizing new plant construc- tion and vigorous action to conserve construction materials will reduce the growth in demand for these products. He must, however, deal with two immediate problems: the inefficiency of construction materials production and the past insufficient allocation of investment to the industry. Gorba- chev took a major step toward addressing the first problem by appointing Sergey F. Voyenushkin-a critic of current construction policies and an established innovator-as Minister of the Construction Materials Industry in July. We have yet to determine the industry's share of new investment in the 1986-90 Five-Year Plan. In the next year or so, indications that Moscow is moving smartly to improve the performance of the construction materials industry would include: ? An increase in investment allocated to the industry in the 1986-90 Five- Year Plan. ? The replacement of ineffective managers. ? The formation of a "superministry" of construction materials or the absorption of the ministry into the State Committee for Construction Affairs to address the fragmentation of material-related responsibilities. ? The signing of major contracts with Western-possibly US-firms for the renovation and modernization of cement and refractory plants. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret Gorbachev will be hard pressed to reconcile his concomitant needs to boost investment in machine building, meet the investment needs of energy and agriculture, and increase investment in the construction materials industry. On the demand side, he will find it difficult to deemphasize new construction as much as he would like and to otherwise get the econ- omywide construction materials conservation he is counting on. Therefore, unless investment in the industry is increased substantially to develop new sources of raw materials, commission new production capacity, renovate old plants, and increase output of processing equipment, continuing construction materials shortfalls will seriously hamper Gorbachev's mod- ernization and consumer welfare efforts. Specifically, new housing starts will slow, capital renovation will be delayed, and the planned increases in the production of advanced and higher quality construction materials will not be realized. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret Deteriorating Quality and Shortages of Raw Materials Problems With Capital Equipment Shortages of Labor Irregular Supplies of Fuel and Electricity Transportation Bottlenecks Fragmentation of Administrative Responsibility Impact of Poor Performance Past Attempts To Address the Problem New Capacity Conserving Construction Materials Looking Ahead Short-Term Indicators Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret The Soviet Construction Materials Industry: Its Role in Economic Expansion The efficiency of the national economy and the rates of our growth depend to a great extent on the structure and quality of materials. At present we are lagging in this task. Mikhail S. Gorbachev at the June 1985 Science and Technology Conference Since coming to power, Mikhail Gorbachev has set in motion the most aggressive economic agenda in the USSR since the mid-1960s. His initiatives are aimed at raising productivity and efficiency throughout the economy by matching more and better equipment with a motivated work force.' Although Soviet eco- nomic performance has improved in recent years from the low levels of 1979-82, accelerated growth is required if targets are to be met. One of the constraints to growth is inadequate invest- ment for economic modernization and expansion. Renovating and reequipping existing enterprises rath- er than building new ones is a key element of Gorbachev's modernization strategy. Unless more re- sources are allotted to expansion of the construction materials industry, however, the goals for moderniza- tion and renovation of industrial facilities will not be achieved. We agree with the General Secretary that construc- tion is the main support mechanism that will facilitate economic expansion. To maintain an effective con- struction sector, the construction materials industry must provide more and better quality materials, par- ticularly cement, concrete, wall materials (especially gypsum), and ceramic products. About two-thirds of the total output of construction materials is used in The USSR Ministry of the Construction Materials Industry includes more than 300 production associa- tions, enterprises, and organizations at the national level as well as 15 republic ministries. The all-union ministry is organized into seven general divisions- Administration, Industry, Economy, Science and Technology, Supply and Repair, Workers, and Mis- cellaneous-each of which contains several depart- ments and administrations. The Industry and Economy divisions are of primary importance because they coordinate planning and production targets with the State Planning Commit- tee. Most of the other divisions provide contributions to the Economy Division when their efforts may affect plans and targets. The Economy Division mea- sures performance and provides guidance when devi- ations from plans occur. The Industry Division is involved most heavily with the use of resources needed for material production and distribution. It contains the departments responsible for the eight product sectors of the industry-cement, prefabricat- ed concrete, asbestos cement, wall materials, roofing materials, construction ceramics, glass, and other construction materials. Although the industry processes many varied prod- ucts that have uses in all sectors of the Soviet economy, output of the construction materials indus- try constitutes only 5 to 6 percent of total Soviet industrial production. and structural metal elements (see figure 1). fabricated concrete products, lumber, glass, bricks, domestic construction-both civilian and military. Construction is the largest consumer of cement, pre- 25X1 2 A11 25X1 LOA-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret Figure 1 USSR: Estimated Disposition of Output From the Construction Materials Industry, 1982 M Construction =Construction materials industry Exports Cement Prefabricated concrete Asbestos cement Roofing materials Wall materials Construction ceramics Glass Other construction materials 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent Source: ( IA update of work done on the reeontructed Soslet Input-Output Table in Producers' Prices (Matrix of Direct Input Coelllcients ) hr the Center for International Research, US Bureau of the Census The various sectors of the construction materials A Troubled Industry industry are closely linked, with poor performance in one affecting the others. The key sector is cement, Rapid increases in the output of construction materi- which "sells" over 60 percent of its product to six of als in the 1961-75 period-up by an average of nearly the remaining sectors. Slow growth in cement sup- 10 percent per year-were followed by an abrupt plies, for example, has constrained the production of slowdown in growth to only 2 percent annually in the prefabricated concrete, a major ingredient in con- struction. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Table 1 USSR: Average Annual Growth of Construction Materials Output Total 1.9 0.9 Cement 7.9 0.6 1.7 Prefabricated concrete 9.7 1.2 1.8 Wall materials 1.7 - 1.6 0.4 Asbestos cement 6.7 -1.3 2.0 Roofing materials 5.9 -0.8 Construction ceramics 6.2 2.3 8.4 4.4 0.0 1.1 1.1 a Estimated. b Includes construction lime, gypsum, rock products, and mineral wool insulation. 0.3 2.3 1.6 1.0 -2.8 3.8 1.5 0.8 -0.4 3.2 3.0 1.1 -0.3 2.6 -0.6 NA 1.5 4.1 2.8 NA -0.4 7.9 2.4 NA 5.0 4.8 2.2 NA -0.4 4.7 2.9 NA 1.1 -1.0 0.4 NA last half of the 1970s. Since 1980, performance in the industry has been mixed: production virtually stagnat- ed in 1981-82 but made a moderate recovery in 1983- 84. The severe winter hampered output in the first quarter of 1985; we currently expect the industry's output to grow by only 1 percent for the year as a whole, a significant drop from 1983-84 growth rates (see tables I and 2).2 Overall rates of growth in the output of construction materials will thus be less than half those originally targeted for 1981-85. Most of the industry's poor performance since the mid-1970s is due to the substantial decline in both the growth of capital and labor inputs and their produc- tivity (see table 3). Many factors contributed to this decline. Deteriorating Quality and Shortages of Raw Materials The quality of quarry products, such as limestone and gypsum, has been deteriorating because of increasing reliance on the exploitation of marginal deposits. ' Performance in the precast ferroconcrete sector was so abysmal that the Soviets withheld monthly production statistics for three Soviet use of lower quality raw materials increases both production problems and costs. For example, according to one Soviet study, up to one-third of the decline in cement production in 1979 resulted from difficulties in processing low-quality raw materials. Chemical additives-essential for building materials exposed to extreme cold-as well as steel reinforcing material and crushed stone are in short supply. Short- ages of stone have caused concrete plants in some construction administrations to operate at as little as one-fifth of capacity in recent years. Although indus- trial byproducts, such as blast furnace slag, nonfer- rous wastes, and fly ash, can compensate for inade- quate supplies of some raw materials, annual increases in the availability of these substitutes have fallen off with the drop in growth rates of the metals and coal industries 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret Table 2 USSR: Production of Major Construction Materials Cement (million tons) 122.1 125.0 127.2 123.7 128.2 129.9 131.0 Precast ferroconcrete (million m') 114.2 122.2 124.5 123.6 128.3 132.4 133.8 Of which: Prestressed reinforced concrete 27.2 27.2 28.1 27.6 28.5 29.4 NA Asbestos cement (billion tiles) 7.8 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.9 8.1 NA Wall materials (million bricks) 63.0 58.0 58.3 58.1 59.6 59.2 NA Of which: Construction brick Of which: Refractory brick 33.7 27.5 27.4 27.1 27.6 27.1 NA Soft roofing materials (million m') 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 NA Roofing tile (million m') 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 NA Linoleum (million m') 71.9 93.1 95.1 96.2 99.9 106.0 NA Ceramic floor tiles (million m') 23.7 23.2 26.0 27.6 29.5 30.3 NA Styled ceramic wall tiles (million m') 24.1 32.6 35.4 37.5 39.3 40.4 NA Acid-proof ceramics (thousand tons) 601.0 609.0 605.0 601.0 616.0 612.0 NA Sanitary ceramics (million units) 8.9 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.9 10.0 NA Window glass (million m') 269.0 245.0 245.0 243.0 247.0 247.0 NA Source: Narodnoye khozyaystvo SSSR, various years (hereafter referred to as Narkhoz). Table 3 USSR: Average Annual Growth of Productivity in the Construction Materials Industry Combined productivity a -1.2 0.3 0.6 -2.3 -1.2 -2.8 -0.6 0.2 Capital -7.9 -2.1 -3.7 -5.4 -4.3 -3.8 -3.3 -3.1 Labor 4.6 2.3 4.2 0.3 1.4 -2.1 1.7 2.9 a Combined productivity is calculated using a Cobb-Douglas pro- duction function. Inputs of capital and labor are weighted with their respective income shares in 1970, estimated in the derivation of GNP at factor cost in that year. Labor is assigned 55.1 percent and capital, 44.9 percent. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret Problems With Capital Equipment The Soviets have added little new capacity in the construction materials industry since 1980, and, ac- cording to a plethora of Soviet press reports, much new equipment operates far below rated capacity. Moreover, the majority of the capital equipment currently in use is over 20 years old. The amount of repair work has consequently skyrocketed with shut- downs for repair-exacerbated by shortages of labor and materials-taking a significant toll on production and efficiency. Because of the limited additions to plant and equipment, Moscow-despite the growth of the pool of skilled repair workers-has been unable to compensate for this loss. Inadequate Investment During 1971-75, the construction materials industry's share of total industrial investment was 5.5 percent. By 1984, its share had declined to 3.7 percent, reflecting the higher priority accorded to other branches of the economy. Moreover, the investment that has been dedicated to the construction materials industry, as in some other branches of industry, has been skewed toward the construction of finished product capacity to the relative neglect of developing raw materials, storage facilities, and social infrastruc- ture such as worker housing. Shortages of Labor In line with a general decline in the growth of the Soviet labor force, growth of employment in the construction materials industry has fallen since the early 1970s, with zero growth recorded in 1984 (see figure 2). This has resulted in an acute shortage of skilled labor across the entire industry. A large, continual turnover of labor because of inadequate investment in social infrastructure has exacerbated the problem. the share of such investment in the cement industry alone would have to be almost doubled to prevent excessive labor turnover. Irregular Supplies of Fuel and Electricity The construction materials industry is heavily depen- dent upon electricity and gas, and interruptions in the supply of energy have pushed down production of Figure 2 USSR: Average Annual Growth of Employment in the Construction Materials Industry, 1961-84 a Zero or no growth. Source:Au,*ho:, various years. construction materials. For example, electricity out- ages at the Kiembayevskiy Asbestos Combine in March 1985 resulted in production shortfalls, and a fuel shortage at the Pervoural'sk Refractory Brick Plant in June 1985 disrupted production. Since the late 1960s, the industry has attempted to reduce its reliance on coal by replacing it with gas, which is both more efficient and reliable. Limited gas storage facili- ties and distribution lines, however, have prevented a faster transition. Transportation Bottlenecks Bottlenecks in transportation-especially in 1979, 1982, and 1985-have also restricted output. The siting of many construction materials plants near raw material deposits has necessitated the transportation of building products over increasingly longer distances (see figure 3). As a result, Moscow has to cope with rising shipping losses due to theft and spillage along Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret Figure 3 USSR: Average Length of Haul by Rail for Construction Materials, 1960-84 1960 65 70 75 80 81 82 83 84 the route. Ironically, many of these same construction materials plants have exhausted the supply of raw materials at nearby quarries. As a result, heavy and bulky materials must be brought in from elsewhere, adding to the transportation system's already heavy Fragmentation of Administrative Responsibility Administrative responsibility for the planning, pro- duction, and distribution of construction materials is divided among a myriad of organizations. The Minis- try of the Construction Materials Industry is nominal- ly tasked with these duties, but we have identified at least 16 other ministries, committees, and directorates with material-related responsibilities. For example, the Ministry of Ferrous Metallurgy produces the blast furnace slag to be used in slag bricks; the Ministry of Construction produces concrete for civilian construc- tion projects; the Main Directorate for Special Con- struction produces concrete for military construction projects; and the Ministry of the Chemical Industry produces and distributes polymeric materials and phosphogypsum. This division of responsibility exac- erbates poor performance caused by the other factors noted above. The poor performance of the construction materials industry, along with excessive waste in Soviet use of construction materials, has had a substantial negative impact throughout the economy. Many different in- dustries as well as specific geographical areas have been affected Although 1979 and 1982 were particularly bad years, shortages of construction materials have occurred consistently since the mid- 1970s and have continued to affect Soviet enterprises in 1985. Appeals to the State Committee for Material and Technical Supply (Gossnab) and the Central Committee of the CPSU have resulted only in the issuance of decrees calling for additional production from enterprises of the Ministry of the Construction Materials Industry and increased availability of rail transport. The major sectors of the Soviet economy affected by construction materials shortfalls in the 1981-85 period include: ? Nuclear power. Soviet nuclear power stations have faced shortages of cement and prefabricated con- crete. Although overall deliveries increased substan- tially in 1984, continuing shortages forced Gossnab to issue a resolution to all territorial organizations requesting full cooperation in the delivery of con- struction materials for nuclear power stations in support of the Long-Term Energy Program. ? Rural housing. According to Izvestiva, rural hous- ing continues to face severe shortages of construc- tion materials, especially wall and roofing materials. This has led the USSR People's Control Committee to reprimand the Main Administration for Trade in Economic Goods for causing the shortages. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret ? Oil and gas development. Siberian oil-drilling sites A variety of Soviet enterprises also faced shortages of and pipeline construction projects are experiencing clinker and slag, glass, gypsum, refractory bricks, and shortages of cement. Shortages of construction ma- slate during 1984 and 1985. These have resulted in terials needed for well repairs and infrastructure construction delays, plant shutdowns, and worker development in the oil and gas fields have been a layoffs. chronic complaint of the oil and gas ministries for several years. Past Attempts To Address the Problem ? Military construction. Facilities subordinate to the Defense Ministry's Main Directorate for Special The Central Committee supports the ideas expressed Construction-a prime contractor for the initial and (at the June Science and Technology Conference) on ongoing construction support of facilities for strate- the need for ... the production of efficient construc- gic offensive and defensive forces-continue to be tion materials. short of reinforced concrete, cement, and brick. Mikhail S. Gorbachev at Tyumen' in September 1985 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret Table 5 USSR: Commissioning of New Capacity in the Construction Materials Industry Cement (million tons) 3.5 4.1 2.2 0 1.8 0.3 1.8 Asbestos cement shingles (million tiles) 272.4 252.8 119.4 113.0 0 32.0 66.0 Precast ferroconcrete (million tons) 4.8 5.9 5.1 5.1 4.0 5.3 5.0 Window glass (million m') 5.5 6.9 5.0 0 0 0 2.3 ,, These figures include capacity originating in new construction and in expansion of existing plants. I Annual averages. Senior Soviet officials have long been aware of the problems confronting the construction materials in- dustry. As long ago as 1972, they recommended alleviating these problems largely by developing addi- tional capacity, expanding automation, and instituting an economywide effort to conserve construction mate- rials. However, these exhortations were not backed by sufficient investment throughout the 1970s. Since 1980, there has been little addition to the industry's capacity. Moreover, the limited success in automation has been unable to improve the quality of materials produced and reduce the labor intensiveness of the industry. The impact of these constraints has been magnified by Moscow's inability to move ahead smartly on eliminating waste in the use of construc- tion materials and in reducing the material intensive- ness of construction. As a result, Moscow has had to increasingly rely on imports to reduce the ensuing New Capacity To meet growing demand in the late 1960s and early I 970s, the Soviets expanded production of construc- tion materials. By the late 1970s, however, this was no longer possible. Labor shortages hampered produc- tion, and investment allocations dwindled. The build- ing of new construction materials enterprises was cut back so that, by 1981 and 1982, commissioning of new capacity was virtually nonexistent. Even though the industry was recognized by the leadership as important for economic expansion, it was not until late 1983 that this importance was translated into the commissioning of new capacity. In 1984 a consider- able amount of new capacity was added, but new commissionings were still well below levels of the early 1970s (see table 5). Automation With the decline in the growth of the labor pool and slow additions to new capacity, the Soviets began to look to automation as a means of expanding produc- tion through the substitution of machinery for labor. In addition, automation was seen as a way of assuring uniform product quality. Problems frequently arose, however, especially in the design of new plants. Enterprises were usually designed without detailed investigation of the specific types of equipment to be used or whether the equipment was to be fully automated, semiautomated, or not automated at all. As a result, additions to new capacity were often delayed. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret To correct these problems, the All-Union Scientific Research and Planning-Design Institute for the Auto- mation of Construction Materials Industry Enter- prises developed three types of automated systems: the automated control system of production processes concerned with accounting, planning, and optimizing production resources, especially applicable in the area of inventory control; the automated control system for technological processes for automation of conveyor- type production lines (not robotics, but rather computer-assisted automated control systems); and the automated technological complex designed to control all plant production operations. The introduction of this new technology, however, is being held back by the Soviet system's bureaucratic inefficiencies and lack of appropriate incentives. Plant managers, for example, are reluctant to try any new production techniques because the time needed to install a new system, train workers in its operation, and then discover and correct defects substantially hinders the plant's ability to produce planned output. Management is also opposed to computerized inven- tory control, as it would reveal resource stockpiles used to ensure fulfillment of a subsequent plan, decrease the manager's "cheat margin," and lower the plant's chances to fulfill its production plan and the workers' chances to receive bonuses. Gorbachev may be hoping that some restructuring of the incen- tive system and performance indicators will overcome management's opposition to automation. Conserving Construction Materials Moscow obviously hoped that a successful econ- omywide conservation effort would reduce the growth in demand for construction materials and thus allow the industry to get by with reduced investment. Although lipservice was paid to conservation as early as the Ninth Five-Year Plan (1971-75), it was not until the 1981-85 Plan that the conservation drive picked up momentum. Between 1980 and 1984, the Soviets adopted several resolutions, held conferences, and implemented programs in an effort to conserve. Conference on the Conservation of Material Re- sources held in Moscow. This conference led directly to the November 1982 plenum of the CPSU Central Committee, which drew attention to the necessity for improving construction efficiency through measures for reducing the expenditure of fuel, raw materials, metal, and other products, as well as financial and labor resources. In 1983, specific recommendations were adopted in a CPSU Central Committee resolution, which the con- struction materials industry coalesced into a three- pronged conservation strategy, including: ? The preferential manufacture of products that fa- cilitate a decrease in the weight of buildings and structures and an increase in their heat insulation. ? The accelerated development and introduction of energy-saving technologies in the production of ce- ment, ceramic products, glass, lime, and reinforced concrete. ? The conservation of raw materials within the con- struction materials industry through a reduction in the material intensiveness of manufactured products and maximum utilization of secondary resources, including wastes of other sectors of the economy. Although the Soviets have implemented numerous conservation programs, there are still relatively large losses of material resources. Resolutions, conferences, and decrees-the traditional cure-alls of the Soviet bureaucracy-have had relatively little impact. Given the shortage of building materials, construction crews cannot make up for the material supplies they have either failed to receive initially or wasted in the process of construction. Inefficient shipment and use of construction materials along with inadequate stor- age facilities that lead to spoilage have thus contribut- ed to the high value of unfinished construction, which in 1984 amounted to 78 percent of annual investment for the Soviet economy as a whole, and 87 percent of investment for the construction materials industry. As Two resolutions of the CPSU Central Committee in 1981 set forth both the problems necessitating conser- vation and ways to solve the problems. These resolu- tions were followed by an April 1982 All-Union Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret Figure 4 USSR: Trade in Construction Materials, 1975-84 E Exports Imports Source Innhingra forcerha r SSSK, variou1 fairs. a result of the continuing shortages, what little invest- ment the industry received had to go toward increased capacity for basic, rather than advanced, higher quali- ty construction materials. Foreign Trade With lagging domestic output, the Soviet Union has been forced to increase imports of construction mate- rials, especially since the mid-1970s (see figure 4). Soviet construction material imports are concentrated in the areas of insulation materials, linoleum, refrac- tories, and wall materials. The value of insulation and wall material imports-$420 million in 1984-re- flects the expansion of Soviet housing, especially in the Far East, far north, and the densely populated southern and southwestern portions of the country. The large value of refractory imports highlights con- tinued problems in the cement sector and the steel industry. In 1984, refractory imports totaled $122 million or 83 percent of Soviet domestic requirements. Since the mid-1970s, purchases from the developed West have constituted approximately one-third of all construction material imports. A large share of im- ports-57 percent-comes from Eastern Europe and North Korea. In 1985-86, the Soviets were scheduled to import cement from Ethiopia, North Korea, and Poland and insulation materials from CEMA coun- tries. The Soviet Union imports insulation materials from the United States, Italy, and Japan and buys refractory materials from France. The United King- dom supplies a variety of materials. Overall, hard currency imports of construction materials totaled $250 million in 1984. The proportion of plastic materials, ceramics, and other advanced nonmetallic materials is still small in the overall volume of materials. [We must exploit! highly effective scientific and technological research developments, such as ... highly effective types of polymer materials. Mikhail S. Gorbachev at the June 1985 Science and Technology Conference Although automation and conservation efforts have contributed somewhat to improved performance in recent years, the industry still has a long way to go. Gorbachev's emphasis on advanced materials in his economic agenda means that further action will have to be taken soon. Commissioning of new capacity during the 12th Five-Year Plan (1986-90) probably will remain relatively low given Gorbachev's emphasis on the machine-building sector and the substantial savings in construction materials envisioned from renovating existing facilities. Although Gorbachev recognizes the need to reduce shortages of construc- tion materials, he probably hopes that his emphasis on renovation as opposed to new plant construction, along with an intensive, economywide campaign to conserve construction materials, will allow him to hold down the share of investment to the industry. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret He has also addressed problems within the industry itself. In his 11 June 1985 address to the Science and Technology Conference, Gorbachev chided the con- struction sector and the construction materials indus- try for the vast amount of unfinished construction. He emphasized the need to focus future work on plant modernization, a theme that has since been echoed in Pravda editorials. Whether he will be able to reduce demand is problematic. In any event, some new construction will be necessary to bring down the high level of unfinished construction in the industry and to add new facilities dedicated to the production of new, better quality construction materials that will be demanded by the construction sector, such as basalt plastics, glass ceramics, and polymeric materials. Two major problems that thus require immediate attention are the inefficiency of construction materi- als production and the past insufficient allocation of investment to the industry. Gorbachev has taken a major step toward addressing the first problem; he selected a new Minister of the Construction Materials Industry, Sergey F. Voyenushkin, in July 1985. Voyenushkin was elevated from the post of RSFSR Minister of the Construction Materials Industry. The new minister has openly criticized the current system and has an established record of innovation. He is not in a position to address the fragmentation issue, however. Short-Term Indicators With the release of preliminary goals for the 1986-90 Five-Year Plan, we have some understanding of what the industry will be tasked with over the next five years, but little knowledge yet of the flow of invest- ment to underwrite these tasks. Over the next year or so, indications that Moscow is moving aggressively to improve the performance of the construction materi- als industry would include: ? An increase in the investment allocated to the industry in the 1986-90 Five-Year Plan. ? Moves by Voyenushkin to replace ineffective man- agers throughout the industry as he did in the RSFSR. ? The widespread application of a system to ensure delivery of materials to construction sites in com- plete sets. This would alleviate excessive amounts of material supplies at construction sites, reduce losses of materials, and avoid work disruptions caused by inadequate supplies of specific materials. ? The formation of a "superministry" of construction materials, encompassing the material-related re- sponsibilities of the 16 organizations currently hav- ing such responsibilities, or the absorption of the construction materials ministry into the State Com- mittee for Construction Affairs. ? The signing of a major contract with a Western firm for the construction of a cement plant in Mogilev (Belorussia) or the renovation of the Novorossiysk plant-possibly with a US firm-which could lead to a contract for the renovation of a large portion of the cement industry. ? The signing of a contract with a West German or US firm to purchase a turnkey magnesite plant and two other plants to be located in the Magnitogorsk region for the manufacture of refractory brick for the steel industry. This would double Soviet refrac- tory output and improve substantially the quality of brick produced. Long-Term Requirements Areas that will require long-term attention include completion of unfinished construction within the con- struction materials industry and improvement of the system of reports and monitoring controls over the expenditure of material resources. Increased materials conservation and expanded automation will also be necessary. Conservation in the general economy will make a long-term contribution by releasing scarce types of primary raw materials and supplies, increasing mate- rial resources, and reducing pollution of the environ- ment by waste products. Specific measures probably will include the assignment of specific tasks for saving material resources both for the five-year plan and 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret Age: 56 Member of the Commu- nist Party since 1951 Graduate of the Karelian-Finnish State University (Candidate of Economic Sciences) Voyenushkin has been in the construction materials industry since 1958 and has held a variety of increas- ingly responsible posts: 1958-65 Deputy chief, then chief of the Adminis- tration of the Construction Materials In- dustry on the Karelian and Northwest National Economic Councils 1965-70 Deputy chief, then chief of the construc- tion materials industry's Main Adminis- tration of the Nonmetallic Ores Industry 1970-75 Chief of the Planning and Economic Ad- ministration, USSR Ministry of the Con- struction Materials Industry 1975-79 First Deputy Minister of the RSFSR Min- istry of the Construction Materials Indus- try 1979-85 Minister of the RSFSR Ministry of the Construction Materials Industry each individual year, the expansion of the production and introduction of lightweight structural elements and materials with high tensile strength, and the increased utilization of industrial waste products. Accelerated automation is a key to continuing growth of the construction materials industry and could lead Industry. Voyenushkin has published numerous articles in the Soviet press and technical journals, many of which reveal his innovative tendencies: ? "Computed Net Production as an Index of Eco- nomic Activity of an Enterprise" (Voprosy ekono- miki, December 1976) ? "Construction in the RSFSR" (Pravda, 7 January 1978) ? "Effective Management of the Economy and its Aspects in the Construction Materials Industry" (Pravda, 16 April 1979) ? Discussion of the RSFSR State Plan and Budget for 1981 (Leninskoye znamya, 21 November 1980) ? "Subsidiary Enterprises Advanced; Developmental Problems Noted" (Sovetskaya Rossiya, 4 June 1982) ? "Development of the Glass and Ceramic Indus- tries" (Steklo i keramika, June 1982) In his former position as RSFSR Minister of the Construction Materials Industry, Voyenushkin has demonstrated a willingness to deal with problems: ? He dismissed personnel in a construction plant for failure to meet construction deadlines and sched- ules in 1982. ? He dismissed personnel at another facility in con- nection with complaints of defective equipment in 1983. ? Under his leadership, the Ministry exceeded plan targets for increased labor productivity and cost reductions in 1984. to a substantial increase in the efficiency of produc- tion: higher productivity of labor, greater and more uniform output, and reduced consumption of energy and raw materials. This will require a number of expensive measures over the long term, especially the Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret mechanization and automation of basic and auxiliary production processes through the widespread intro- duction of computers. Perspectives Gorbachev will be hard pressed to reconcile his needs to boost investment in machine building, meet the investment needs of energy and agriculture, and increase investment in the construction materials in- dustry. He will also find it difficult to deemphasize new construction as much as he would like and get the economywide conservation he is counting on. If investment in construction materials is not in- creased in the 12th Five-Year Plan period, additional new capacities will be slow to materialize, and the inefficiencies associated with an aged capital stock will continue. Sharply rising costs could exacerbate this problem. The construction materials industry will have few resources to use for mechanizing the numer- ous labor-intensive production processes that current- ly prevail. For example, according to press reports, about half of the workers in the cement sector are still employed in manual and auxiliary tasks. Planners, who hope to raise labor productivity through introduc- tion of new high-efficiency machinery, increased mechanization and automation, and better social and cultural facilities at production enterprises, will find it increasingly difficult to modernize because all these improvements depend on higher rates of growth of capital investment. The industry's efforts to improve its raw materials supply position appreciably will also be affected by the performance of other industrial sectors. The plan to use more metal wastes and fly ash instead of rock products, for example, may be hampered by continued slow growth in the metals and coal industries and by transportation constraints. If fuel and power supplies cannot be made more reliable, production of construc- tion materials will continue to falter. In sum, unless investment in the industry is increased substantially to develop new sources of raw materials, commission new production capacity, renovate old plants, and increase output of processing equipment, continuing construction materials shortfalls will seri- ously hamper Gorbachev's modernization and con- sumer welfare efforts. Specifically, new housing starts will slow, capital renovation will be delayed, and the planned increases in the production of advanced and higher quality construction materials will not be realized. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2 Secret Secret Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/22 : CIA-RDP87T00787R000100020002-2