WORLDWIDE ACTIVE MEASURES AND PROPAGANDA ALERT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 46
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 15, 2011
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: August 1, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Iq
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Directorate of Secret
Intelligence
and Propaganda Alert
Worldwide Active Measures
0 /1 719
ZL . CC'Y/r :tj r y.. C WY
t=, C:7M 7is07 Hf
NC AJH"f: +? F;#l1' _? WS
1
1 4-it- 466
Secret
DI WAMPA 86-002
August 1986
opy 466
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Directorate of
Intelligence
ITO
Worldwide Active Measures
and Propaganda Alert
This quarterly was prepared by and coordinated
within the Directorate of Intelligence.
Secret
DI WAMPA 86-002
August 1986
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Worldwide Active Measures
and Propaganda Alert F----] 25X1
Perspective: The Next Summit: Propaganda and Active Measures Prospects
As the national leaders maneuver for another US-Soviet summit meeting, we are
sure of one thing: the Soviets already have a campaign in motion to rally support
for Soviet initiatives. Prior to the November 1985 summit in Geneva, Moscow and
its supporters applied virtually the full range of active measures and propaganda
ploys against the United States. For the anticipated next summit, we expect to see
more of the same tactics, probably with more style and sophistication-in keeping
with General Secretary Gorbachev's increased emphasis on propaganda and image
Worldwide Campaigns
Gorbachev's Arms Control Offensive
International Y 7 r of Peace Update: The World Congress in Copenhagen
Moscow's Agenda for the 41st UN General Assembly
Pushin the Labor Front
Neoglobalism: New Soviet Propaganda on the United States and the Third
World
Western Europe: Soviet Preoccupation with Arms Control
Soviet Opportunism in Africa
Latin America Remains a Key Communist Target
Soviet Political nfluence in the Middle East: A Mixed Scorecard
South Asia: Manipulation in India, Pressure in Pakistan, Deception in
Afghanistan, and Money in Bangladesh
East Asia and the Pacific: Targeting ASEAN
Libya: Retrenching he Caribbean
Secret
DI WAMPA 86-002
August 1986
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
2oA]
25X1
LORI
25X1
LJA I
25X1
25X1
LJ/\ I
25X1
LOA-1
,25X1
L~A I
25X1
'I Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Moscow's Gambit in Southern Africa: Exploiting Apartheid
States not only in Africa, but also throughout the world.
As the political situation in southern Africa grows more turbulent, the USSR is re-
sponding with a stepped-up propaganda and active measures program to manipu-
late events there to its advantage. In our view, Moscow's penetration of UN
organizations responsible for apartheid issues, its material and financial assistance
to the major southern African liberation movements, and its continuing disinfor-
mation campaign linking Washington to Pretoria leave the Soviets well positioned
to exploit antiapartheid sentiment and to erode the political standing of the United
International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War:
A Model Pro 7 da Vehicle for the Future
duplicating IPPNW's success.
The Soviet Union has successfully conducted a campaign to manipulate the
International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), the
recipient of the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize. As a result, the group has become
increasingly critical of the United States. Encouraged by these developments,
senior Soviet leaders are emphasizing the establishment of organizations similar to
IPPNW in the future, but we believe Moscow may have some difficulty in
Calendar of Key Events, 1986-87
25X1
25X1
75X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
This quarterly publication provides timely updates of continuing active measures
and propaganda campaigns by the USSR and its allies, covering the period 15
May to 15 August. It also provides warning of future campaigns. It is organized
into four parts:
? A perspective, which provides a look at recent trends in active measures.
? Brief overviews of both worldwide and regional campaigns.
? Articles containing detailed analyses of trends in the arena of political influ-
ence-active measures, propaganda, and public diplomacy-and speculation on
future developments.
? A calendar of events over the next year that will probably figure prominently in
campaigns by the Soviets and their allies.
Secret
DI WAMPA 86-002
August 1986
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Worldwide Active Measures
and Propaganda Alert
Perspective The Next Summit: Propaganda and Active Measures Prospects
As the national leaders maneuver for another US-Soviet summit meeting, we are
sure of one thing: the Soviets already have a campaign in motion to rally support
for Soviet initiatives. Prior to the November 1985 summit in Geneva, the Soviets
and their supporters applied virtually the full range of active measures and
propaganda ploys against the United States, including diplomatic pressure,
disinformation, contradictory signals, front group declarations, and overt press
propaganda. For the anticipated next summit, we expect to see more of the same
tactics, probably with more style and sophistication-in keeping with General
Secretary Gorbachev's increased emphasis on propaganda and image building.
25X1
25
X1
With the venue of the summit set for Washington, the Soviets undoubtedly will be
mounting a massive propaganda effort against the American public.
a public relations film on Gorbachev is being prepared for 25X1
showing to US audiences this fall. We expect to see a steady flow of Soviet
visitors-diplomats, academicians, business officials, scientists, and other profes-
sionals-who will be tasked with alerting US contacts to special Soviet concerns
regarding the meeting. Last year these envoys conveyed the following signals:
Moscow needed an arms control agreement in order to ease the strain on the Soviet
economy; Gorbachev needed some summit success to counter opposition at home;
and new US-Soviet commercial opportunities were likely if the meeting was
successful. While similar arguments are likely to resurface this year, the Soviets 25X1
may have initiated what appears to be a new theme-that the United States is un-
der pressure to deal with Moscow.
West European audiences will be accorded a high priority as well. Soviet 25X1
spokesmen will continue to tour European capitals as part of a continuing
campaign to convince US allies that Moscow is attentive to West European
security interests. The Soviets will press their hosts to influence the United States
on the merits of Moscow's initiatives and will seek maximum media exposure to
present their case. To help convince West European and Third World audiences of
its interest in arms control, Moscow will continue to seek support among the
neutral and nonaligned nations, particularly the Group of Six that has pushed a
comprehensive test ban. 25X1
Secret
DI WAMPA 86-002
August 1986
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
In the weeks preceding last year's meeting in Geneva, harsh criticism of US
positions on arms control, SDI, and human rights appeared daily in the Soviet
press. With the exception of the President, Soviet media also routinely attacked
US administration officials. We anticipate similar efforts as the summit date
nears. On the basis of recent Soviet propaganda themes, we also expect presummit
criticism of the United States for alleged state terrorism and neoglobalist designs
on the Third World.
Last year Soviet-controlled front groups staged a series of activities in support of
Soviet positions. During October 1985, for example, Gorbachev pushed standard
Soviet "peace" propaganda at a meeting of the World Federation of Trade Unions
in Moscow, and the Australian affiliate of the World Peace Council hosted an
international conference that attacked SDI and alleged US development of a
nuclear first-strike capability. For the next summit, we expect the usual grouping
of Soviet supporters-for example, the World Peace Council and the World
Federation of Scientific Workers-to exploit events relating to the UN Interna-
tional Year of Peace as a means of pushing Soviet summit initiatives. In addition,
Moscow probably will encourage organizations such as the International Physi-
cians for the Prevention of Nuclear War to hold meetings or demonstrations as the
summit takes place. Within the United States, Soviet-affiliated front groups, led
by the Communist Party of the USA, will again attempt to influence peace,
political, and religious organizations to pressure the administration. Moscow will
also promote its position among various US-Soviet groups, such as the Forum for
US-Soviet Dialogue, which met in Colorado in May to discuss SDI.
For the 1985 summit, Moscow played on the human rights theme by manipulating
the Yelena Bonner and Anatoliy Shcharanskiy cases and the reunification-of-
families issue to demonstrate the Soviet regime's willingness to cooperate. While
we cannot rule out similar tactics for the next summit, we believe-on the basis of
its recent gestures-that Moscow is more likely to focus on countering Western al-
legations of human rights abuses in the Soviet Union by charging, for example, US
support to racist South Africa.
Notably absent from Moscow's 1985 campaign was evidence of Soviet use of so-
called dirty tricks-for example, forgeries, whisper campaigns against President
Reagan, and the organization of violent demonstrations. We have no indications of
such activities being prepared for the next summit and doubt the USSR would risk
jeopardizing any chances for a successful outcome by employing them this year.
In our view, the most significant difference in Moscow's approach to the
forthcoming summit compared to the previous one is likely to be the role of
Gorbachev. While he was active in the 1985 campaign-culminating in his four-
day visit to Paris just prior to the summit-we believe that he will be even more
visible this year as the meeting approaches. Gorbachev's highly successful
Western-style campaigning during the past year before the press and on television
has no doubt bolstered his confidence in his ability to manipulate summit issues to
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 i
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Soviet advantage. In addition, his recent invitation to British Prime Minister
Thatcher to visit Moscow this fall suggests that he will continue to use every
available opportunity to personally present his proposals to Western audiences.
In the event that the meeting is canceled-for whatever reason-the Soviets are
already laying the groundwork to place the blame firmly on the United States,
most likely through a major propaganda campaign pointing to US intransigence in
arms talks or US failure to guarantee concrete achievements ahead of time. Soviet
Deputy Foreign Minister Loginov stated in a mid-July radio interview in Belgrade,
for example, that a second summit is contingent on "tangible results" at the
Geneva arms negotiations and attributed the current stalemate to Washington.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Worldwide Campaigns
Gorbachev's Arms Control Offensive
General Secretary Gorbachev continues to take the lead in pushing Moscow's arms
control agenda. In addition to launching a string of arms control initiatives since
the beginning of the year, his speeches on arms control have set the tone for harsh
Soviet criticism of US policies. While Western Europe remains the USSR's top
priority, Moscow also targets the US public and is using arms control propaganda
in the Third World to fan anti-US sentiment there. During the past few months,
the Soviets have continued to campaign actively against the Strategic Defense
Initiative (SDI) and Western development and deployment of binary chemical
weapons and in favor of their own proposals.
Moscow recently intensified its efforts to influence West European policymakers
through a flurry of diplomatic visits described by British and Dutch officials as a
Soviet "charm offensive" on arms control, according to US Embassy and press
reporting. In July alone, French President Mitterrand and West German Foreign
Minister Genscher traveled to Moscow, while Colonel-General Chervov of the
Soviet General Staff and Soviet Foreign Minister Shevardnadze were in London;
Soviet Deputy Foreign Minister Petrovski visited The Hague; chief Soviet arms
negotiator Karpov held talks in Bonn; and CPSU Central Committee member
Kornienko briefed Greek Prime Minister Papandreou in Athens. In virtually every
case, the Soviets pushed their own initiatives, blamed the lack of progress at the
negotiating table on the United States, and lobbied the Europeans to try to
influence US policies.
In addition to exploiting diplomatic venues, Moscow is employing a number of
other techniques in its bid to influence the full spectrum of arms control issues:
? The USSR continues to make heavy use of international conferences-many of
which are staged by Soviet front organizations-as forums to attack US arms
control policies. At the May meeting of the Soviet-controlled Afro-Asian
People's Solidarity Organization in Moscow, for example, a message read on
behalf of Gorbachev accused the United States of efforts to create new
superweapons within the framework of SDI. In mid-July, Gorbachev met in
Moscow with a group of scientists-participating there in an international
scientific forum for a nuclear test ban-to commend their efforts and inform
them that Moscow's decision regarding the extension of its unilateral moratori-
um would depend largely on US policy.
? In what may signal a worldwide effort, the Soviets-according to the US
Embassy in Buenos Aires-held a rare press conference there in late June at
which Soviet spokesmen tried to drum up opposition to the US position on
SALT II.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
copcmrsts have `stated that
f? ction of the money now spent r m litany p~nrposes
ibe roJ ie ns of underdevelopment ove ty
i a+st~the wo ld _coufid -~ t f, #
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
? Largely through paid newspaper advertisements, Gorbachev's 15 January
proposal to eliminate nuclear weapons by the year 2000 received widespread
coverage in Africa with the message that Western arms expenditures divert
much-needed economic aid from the Third World.
? Moscow has continued its worldwide disinformation campaign alleging that
AIDS was developed jointly by the Pentagon and the CIA in the course of
biological warfare experiments conducted during the 1950s and 1960s. Although
the original intent of the campaign was probably to blame the United States for
the appearance of AIDS in the Bloc countries, we suspect that the story now is
being used to create fear of the US military abroad and of the forthcoming
deployment of new chemical weapons outside the United States.
? The Soviet press regularly publishes a litany of overt propaganda on arms
control issues. Pravda, for example, characterized the 11 June Budapest proposal
on conventional weapons as "an appeal to all NATO member states and to all
European countries" in light of the "imperial, globalist ambitions of [the] US
administration."
In the coming months, while we anticipate that Moscow will continue to explore
new means of marketing its existing-as well as any forthcoming- arms control
proposals, we believe that public diplomacy and propaganda will continue to be the
primary vehicles in this campaign. Already the Soviets have indicated that they
will publicly attack SDI at the 41st UN General Assembly, which opens in mid-
September. (See Moscow's Agenda for the 41st UN General Assembly for details.)
Other targets of future Soviet propaganda in the arms control arena are certain to
include the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) Review Conference
to be held in Geneva in September and the November Conference on Security and
Cooperation in Western Europe (CSCE) Review Conference in Vienna. (See
calendar for details.)
International Year of Peace Update: The World Congress in Copenhagen
The Soviet-controlled World Peace Council (WPC) plans to follow through with
the World Congress for the UN International Year of Peace (IYP) scheduled to be
held in Copenhagen in October despite increasing public criticism over WPC
manipulation, declining attendance estimates, and financial difficulties. Several
Danish newspapers have repeatedly assailed WPC and Soviet control of the
Congress-claiming that it will be a "great Soviet-manipulated propaganda
number"-and criticized the chairman of the Danish organizing committee for
being naive and gullible. As a result of the adverse press coverage, organizers have
lowered attendance estimates from 5,000 to 2,000, and fear that the numbers may
fall even further because of scheduling conflicts with other peace meetings during
October in Greece and Austria, Moreover, press
reports indicate that the organizing committee has fallen approximately $100,000
short of its fundraising goals.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
The Bella Conference Center in
Copenhagen, site of the October
1986 World Congress for the
UN International Year of
We believe that these efforts to salvage the reputation of the Congress, heralded in
East bloc press as the "culmination of the UN's IYP," will not be successful, and
that the meeting will be attended only by WPC-affiliated front organizations and
peace groups sympathetic to Soviet disarmament policies. Though the Soviets will
try to put the best face possible on the meeting in their own press coverage, the
Danish press will continue-and perhaps intensify-its negative coverage of the
Congress and be prepared to publicize any anti-Soviet activities that take place,
such as protests outside the conference center by independent East European peace
groups over human rights abuses in the Soviet Union.
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Moscow's Agenda for the 41st UN General Assembly
Following past practice, Soviet strategy for the UN General Assembly (UNGA)
opening in mid-September will be to exploit the UN forum to propagandize
Moscow's proposals on arms control, regional security issues, and the UN financial
crisis.
The Soviets almost certainly will give priority to winning endorsement by the
United Nations for General Secretary Gorbachev's string of arms control initia-
tives. Probably with this endorsement in mind, Moscow originally shaped some of
these proposals to fit the UN political context. For example, the 15 January
proposal to eliminate nuclear weapons by the year 2000 first appeared in public
correspondence from Gorbachev to UN Secretary General Perez de Cuellar.
Similarly, the Soviets first presented their plan for a multilateral test ban treaty to
the UN Committee on Disarmament.
A letter from Soviet Prime Minister Ryzhkov to Perez de Cuellar reviving
Moscow's "star peace" proposal indicates that the Soviets will publicly attack the
US SDI program at the UNGA session. By incorporating features designed to
appeal to the Third World-such as the creation of a World Space Organization
dedicated to the development of agriculture, improvement of communications, and
establishment of a global weather forecasting service-the Soviets probably hope
to overcome the apathy toward last year's "star peace" proposal.
The Soviets can be expected to press their proposal for an early international
agreement to ban and destroy chemical weapons stockpiles. We believe this
proposal is intended to counter the NATO decision to site binary chemical
weapons in West Germany. Moscow's strategy on this issue probably will be to di-
vert attention from US verification proposals, which it opposes, and take advan-
tage of an opportunity to fuel West European anxieties over the forthcoming
deployment of these weapons.
In a move to capitalize on lingering anti-US sentiment resulting from the US
airstrikes against Libya last spring, the Soviets probably will lobby for Foreign
Minister Shevardnadze's proposal to establish a "peace and security" zone in the
Mediterranean area. In a recent letter to Perez de Cuellar, Shevardnadze implied
that the scheme entails withdrawal of both the US 6th Fleet and the Soviet
Mediterranean Squadron. The proposal is worded as an appeal to the nonaligned
for support of measures to protect national liberation movements, such as the PLO
and the Polisario Front, and not simply Libya.
Past practice suggests that Moscow will follow the African lead on southern
African issues that will emerge from the Nonaligned Summit meeting in Harare,
Zimbabwe, which ends on 7 September. The Soviets will certainly continue to
support economic sanctions against South Africa and encourage the UNGA to
adopt name-calling resolutions associating the United States with the Pretoria
regime.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
We expect the Soviets to continue pushing their "save the UN" propaganda
campaign. For example, the World Peace Council, at the request of UNESCO
Director General M'Bow, is organizing a meeting of people from cultural,
educational, and scientific fields to counter Western charges of bias and incompe-
tence in UNESCO Moscow will also probably play
up their own hard currency contribution to the UN Interim Force in Lebanon
(UNIFIL) as a contrast to the US decision to cut back UN funding. Finally, we
anticipate that they will publicize the US-ordered personnel reduction at the
Soviet Mission in New York-scheduled for 1 October-as an alleged violation of
the UN headquarters agreement.
While it is difficult to project what success Moscow will achieve at the UNGA, we
expect some nonaligned member states to endorse Gorbachev's arms control
initiatives; the Foreign Ministers of the Nonaligned Movement supported them at
their meeting in New Delhi last spring. The Soviets also may find some backing
for Shevardnadze's plan for the Mediterranean because it is likely to appeal to at
least a few liberation movements in the Middle East and Africa. In contrast,
because Third World representatives to the UN generally view the "star peace"
initiative as a propaganda ploy, we believe Moscow will gain little, if any,
additional support for it.
Pushing Hard on the Labor Front
Moscow has been pushing hard during the past few months to increase its
penetration of labor unions through a variety of channels, namely the Soviet-
controlled World Federation of Trade Unions (WFTU), the Soviet All Union
Central Council of Trade Unions (AUCCTU)-WFTU's parent organization-
and pro-Soviet Communist unionists. While the long-term objective of this effort is
to build Soviet influence around the world-often at US expense-the Soviets are
also trying to drum up support for WFTU's 11th World Trade Union Congress to
be held in East Berlin during 16-22 September. Moscow has been particularly
active recently in the South Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America:
? US Embassy reporting indicates that the pro-Soviet Pacific Trade Union
Community (PTUC) backed New Zealand's call for a South Pacific Nuclear
Free Zone at its May conference in Auckland. In our view, a major force behind
the PTUC endorsement was Jim Knox, the head of New Zealand's leftist
Federation of Labor (FOL) and chairman of a regional WFTU affiliate.
WFTU's growing influence over the FOL itself is demonstrated by the fact that
the Federation is planning to send 12 delegates to the forthcoming WFTU
Congress, a threefold increase over its representation at the 10th World
Congress in Havana in 1982, according to the US Embassy in Wellington.
? Trade union delegations from Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union visited
Egypt in June for the first time in 10 and 12 years, respectively. According to the
US Embassy in Cairo, the Czechoslovaks and Soviets initiated the visits and
pressured the Egyptian General Trade Union Federation (EGTUF) to resume
direct union-to-union contacts. WFTU also has been pushing EGTUF-which
accepted an invitation to East Berlin-to revive long-moribund ties.
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
WFTU-working through a Mexican
labor university-will partially fund instruction expenses at the Ecuadorean
Workers' Confederation (CTE) union school, which will be established in the
near future. In the meantime, AUCCTU will provide the WFTU-affiliated CTE
with scholarships for labor courses in the Soviet Union. AUCCTU also requested
the CTE-headed by a Central Committee member of the Communist Party of
Ecuador-to draft a report on Ecuador's labor movement, paying particular
attention to unionists that the Soviets should work with and support.
In contrast to these favorable developments, Moscow and its allies are having
difficulty coaxing some non-WFTU affiliated unions to attend the East Berlin
Congress, even though they are touting it as being open to all trade unions
regardless of ideology and are lavishly offering full-expenses paid invitations to
some independent unions:
? According to the US Embassy in Bonn, the Soviets and East Europeans have
been trying doggedly-so far to no avail-to arrange an East-West meeting with
the West German Trade Union Federation (DGB). Most recently, the senior
Soviet in WFTU called a DGB official to confirm the group's attendance at the
Congress, but was told that no DGB representatives would participate.
These setbacks are the latest in a series of problems encountered recently by
WFTU. the CTE leader complained to 25X1
Moscow in May that WFTU is excessively bureaucratic, and that in Latin
America it neither actively supports union aspirations nor addresses the problems
confronting labor movements there. The Hungarians made similar complaints at
their trade union congress in February and called for the organization's renewal.
Even WFTU publications have been urging a more active policy. The Draft Main
Document of the 11th Congress, for example, cites as WFTU's main tasks the uni-
fication of trade unions regardless of ideology or affiliation and the formulation of
policy that effectively treats the concerns of workers. It also proposes, among other
things, that WFTU engage in more diversified regional activities and develop a
more intensive training program for cadres.F____1 25X1
In response to these problems, Moscow may try to revitalize WFTU at the
forthcoming Congress, perhaps by shaking up the organization's leadership or
reorganizing its bureaucratic structure. In any event, we expect the meeting to
pass a number of resolutions on economic issues tailored to WFTU's Third World
clientele. These include a moratorium on or abolition of Third World debt
payments; union participation in the formulation and implementation of develop-
ment strategies; and a statement on union rights-especially the right to strike and
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 I! _I
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
the right of unions to be consulted on economic and social policy. Moreover,
Moscow will undoubtedly use the event as a major propaganda forum to publicize
the standard Soviet line on key issues such as disarmament, SDI, and apartheid.
and the Third World
Over the past several months, Soviet journalists, international affairs specialists,
and even General Secretary Gorbachev have used the term "neoglobalism" as part
of a worldwide propaganda campaign to describe what they assert is a new
American doctrine and philosophy for the Third World. According to Soviet
commentators, the basis of neoglobalism is the renewed US insistence on defining
the entire world as its sphere of interest. To promote its "imperialist" interests in
the global arena, the Reagan administration is said to be ready to prolong existing
regional conflicts that threaten "progressive" and "anti-imperialist" governments,
Soviet cartoon entitled
"Dreams of a Neoglobalist and
Me Tbl Heorno6anUCTa
H Bo3MO)KHb/e IIOCneRCTBHA
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
such as Angola and Afghanistan, and initiate new ones with countries that do not
suit US preferences, such as Libya and Syria. These activities are "justified" by
Washington in terms of supporting democracy, antiterrorism, and anti-Commu-
nism.
Soviet propagandists depict the United States as ready to use a wide variety of in-
struments in pursuit of its neoglobalist objectives, including:
? Economic leverage that exploits Third World underdevelopment and debt to
increase dependency on the West.
? Political pressure intended to remove rightwing dictators who have become
counterproductive to US purposes in favor of more respectable but still pliable
leaders who may be able to deflect pressure for revolutionary change.
? Covert and overt military assistance for "bandits, terrorists, and
counterrevolutionaries."
? Direct US military intervention with Rapid Deployment Forces, "light divi-
sions," and other power projection forces.
Neoglobalism has served Moscow as a vehicle for integrating several propaganda
lines it has used over the past year to try to discredit US policy in the international
arena, notably accusations that Washington promotes "state terrorism" and
exports counterrevolution. Gorbachev's speech during Algerian President Benje-
did's March visit to Moscow-in which he tied together Soviet criticism of US pol-
icy in Nicaragua, Cambodia, Angola, Mozambique, Afghanistan, and Grenada-
is one example of how neoglobalism is used in this context. Also, recent Soviet
press coverage of US actions toward Afghanistan, Nicaragua, and Libya has
prominently featured neoglobalism as an explanation of alleged US aggression
against these states.
The timing of neoglobalism's advent as a propaganda theme is probably in part a
counter to the US emphasis on regional issues before and during last year's
Reagan-Gorbachev meeting in Geneva. Moscow has used the theme to castigate
the supposed insincerity of US proposals on Third World issues, portraying
Washington's underlying policy as one of interference and aggression. Moreover,
one Soviet commentator used the concept to criticize the United States specifically
for elevating Third World issues to the same level of importance as arms control on
the US-Soviet agenda, and for claiming that there should be linkage between
progress in these areas.
Neoglobalism will probably continue to be a central theme of Soviet international
propaganda in coming months. Soviet comments, both on US policy toward
particular countries or regions and on US foreign policy in general, will play up
US neoglobalist intentions and the threat they allegedly pose to Third World
stability and progress in East-West relations. This message will be aimed not only
at Third World audiences but also those in Western Europe and the United States
where Moscow will try to use the theme to influence Western debates on aiding
anti-Soviet insurgents and on the relative priority of regional versus arms control
issues. In addition, Moscow probably will continue to put forward regional
proposals of its own from time to time to polish its image and influence Western
deliberations on Third World questions, contrasting its initiatives with alleged US
neoglobalist behavior.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Regional Activities
Western Europe: Soviet Preoccupation With Arms Control
Arms control issues have dominated Soviet influence activities recently in Western
Europe. While ruling government officials remain the key target of Moscow's
campaign on arms control (see "Gorbachev's Arms Control Offensive"), the USSR
has also actively courted West European opposition political parties such as the
West German Social Democrats (SPD) and the British Labor Party.
this strategy is meeting with some success. Following an
April visit to Moscow, an SPD member of the West German arms control
disarmament subcommittee reported that the Soviets made a convincing case for
taking seriously General Secretary Gorbachev's 15 January proposal to eliminate
nuclear weapons by the year 2000, according to the US Embassy in Bonn. British
Labor Party Shadow Foreign Secretary Dennis Healy returned from a June trip to
Moscow optimistic about Soviet intentions on nuclear disarmament, on the basis of
an article he authored in the British press.
The USSR's efforts to exploit the arms control debate in Western Europe have
been hindered, however, by lingering concerns there over Soviet handling of the
Chernobyl' nuclear disaster, even among committed supporters.
the pro-Soviet West Berlin Communist Party (SEW)
held a meeting in early June to discuss ways of overcoming problems caused by the
accident to the party's campaign supporting Soviet disarmament policies. Some
SEW members chided the party's adherence to the Soviet propaganda line on
Chernobyl' and requested a more honest discussion of its implications for the
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Nevertheless, given the growing body of evidence) that the 25X1
USSR is now planning for another US-Soviet summit meeting-at which
disarmament issues would be high on the agenda-we believe Moscow will be
intensifying its arms control push in Western Europe in the weeks ahead. Already
Gorbachev has invited British Prime Minister Thatcher to Moscow, and, accord-
ing to the US Embassy in Helsinki, Finnish Foreign Minister Vayrynen is
scheduled to lead a delegation there this fall. The Soviets would undoubtedly use
such occasions to stress their sincerity in seeking arms reductions and to continue
their concerted lobbying of European leaders to press Washington for progress in
negotiations.0 25X1
Soviet Opportunism in Africa
Although Moscow's major African priority is to take advantage of events in
southern Africa (see "Moscow's Gambit in Southern Africa: Exploiting Aparth-
eid"), the past few months have witnessed a variety of Soviet maneuvers elsewhere
in Africa. Chief among them are apparent Soviet attempts to exploit suspicions
among some senior African leaders about the viability of their regimes, continuing
measures to expand Moscow's longstanding scholarship program in the region, and
the surfacing of its worldwide disinformation campaign on AIDS 25X1
In Zaire, the Soviets have apparently used press reports that Zaire serves as a tran-
sit point for US military aid to UNITA forces to help endear themselves to
President Mobutu. A few days after Zambian President Kaunda criticized
Mobutu on this issue in late April, Moscow lent credibility to Mobutu's denial in
an Izvestiya article claiming that these charges were part of a US-South African
disinformation conspiracy; this allegation received extensive coverage in Zairian
newspapers and radio. In addition, the Soviet Ambassador has stepped up
In the Seychelles, we believe that Moscow could have played a role in President
Rene's claim of a plot by the British M16, French DGSE, and the CIA to
overthrow his government. While the list of possible candidates for initiating such
claims is extensive-including some of Rene's leftist advisers, Seychelles exiles,
and Libya-past Soviet involvement in spreading disinformation about coup
plotting in the Seychelles suggests that a Soviet role cannot be ruled out.
allegation-only a few days before the ninth anniversary of the coup d'etat that
brought Rene to power-and its impact on Seychelles' relations with the West-
Rene postponed the visit of a senior US military official and canceled upcoming
ship visits by the US and British Navies-suggests that a foreign government
hostile to the West could have been responsible.
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Patrice Lumumba University,
Moscow's training center for
Elsewhere, Moscow has been using offers of scholarships in a continuation of its
long-term effort to build up a cadre of Africans sympathetic to the Soviet Union.
the USSR recently made scholarships
25X1
available to students in Somalia in a move to improve relations there.
25X1
25X1
scholarships in technical fields to students in Guinea and increased their offers in
Uganda. These moves follow Moscow's acceptance earlier this year of a request by
the Sudanese Communist Party to provide scholarships for Sudanese to study in
the Soviet Union,
neither aware of nor alarmed about the dangers of AIDS.
The Soviet disinformation campaign charging that the US Government is
spreading AIDS-begun last fall in Moscow-finally surfaced in Africa with a
flurry of press accusations during June and July in Uganda, Ghana, Kenya, and
Senegal. We believe that the African phase of the campaign was delayed for two
reasons. First, unlike other areas of the world, there is not a large US presence in
Africa-either military or civilian-on which the Soviets can place blame for the
disease. In addition, because little diagnostic testing has been completed and
nation-by-nation AIDS statistics appeared only recently, the African public was
In the near term, we expect the Soviets to follow up on the themes they have used
this summer in Africa to try to discredit US policies. In the Seychelles, we believe
they will step up anti-US propaganda in an effort to exploit Rene's coup fears and
sustain his suspicion of the West. In Zaire, Moscow will continue to offer limited
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
economic, cultural, and possibly military incentives in hopes of getting Mobutu to
adopt a more neutral, less pro-West position and of gaining some support at the
United Nations. The Soviets are also likely to encourage Africa's nonaligned
leaders to endorse Soviet arms control initiatives as the next US-Soviet summit
date nears. On the AIDS front, we expect Moscow to surface more anti-US
allegations periodically throughout the continent in an effort to counteract the
positive image that the United States is gaining as a result of its successful medical
diagnostic support in many countries.
Latin America Remains a Key Communist Target
Latin America remains a focus of Communist propaganda and active measures
activities. Moscow has stepped up its efforts in the region during the past few
months, while Cuba continues to provide covert funding to leftist groups, build
leftist political coalitions, and target both religion and the media:
? In Chile, the Cubans are continuing their covert financial support of leftist
? The Cubans increased their influence operations recently in Ecuador.
Havana is trying to broaden official contacts through
diplomatic channels and is supporting a plan to unite Ecuador's political left,
including the Communist and Socialist Revolutionary Parties, in hopes of
revising Febres-Cordero's policies and of finding an acceptable candidate to run
in the 1988 presidential election.
the Cuban Embassy is working to improve relations with the Ecuadorean
media-especially the government's National Information Secretariat.
? In a move to strengthen the credibility of Cuba's campaign to influence Latin
American Christians, Havana has decided to send a small number of lay people
to the prestigious University of Louvain in Brussels for advanced study in
liberation theology, according to a report from the US Interests section in
Havana. A Belgian diplomat indicates that the Cuban students will be the first
ever from a Communist nation to be enrolled in the course. The Cubans may
have opted not to send clergy-who are subject to the Cuban Catholic Church
hierarchy-to ensure greater control over the students upon completion of their
studies.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 I
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
? The Soviets staged a rare press conference in Buenos Aires in late June at which
Soviet spokesmen-in response to questions from the press-charged that
nuclear cargo from British ships sunk during the 1982 Falklands war were
contaminating the South Atlantic. The Soviets also linked recent penguin deaths
in the Falklands area to the nuclear radioactivity. The US Embassy in Buenos
Aires speculated that the questions may have been planted because the Soviets
were primed to reply.
Future Soviet operations in the Caribbean and Central America may be orches-
trated from Cuba instead of Moscow. Already there are indications that the
Soviets are setting up their Embassy in Havana as a base for regional activities,
The appointment of
high-level Soviet personnel to Havana in the future would provide additional
evidence of an expanding Soviet presence in the hemisphere.
Soviet Political Influence in the Middle East: A Mixed Scorecard
Our assessment of Soviet political influence activities in the Middle East during
the past quarter indicates a mixed scorecard of Soviet successes and failures.
Moscow continued to encourage fears of US or Israeli attacks on Muslim
countries, and is polishing its image in the Persian Gulf. In contrast, the Soviet-
controlled World Peace Council (WPC) tried unsuccessfully to organize a meeting
of peace groups in the region.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 i
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
The Soviets effectively exploited the October 1985 Israeli attack on PLO
headquarters in Tunis and the April 1986 US airstrikes against Libya as a
backdrop for Soviet propaganda and active measures operations warning of
impending "imperialist and Zionist aggression":
? The Soviet and Syrian press recently revived charges-originally surfaced in
Damascus by TASS during a large Israeli military exercise this spring in the Go-
lan Heights-that Tel Aviv was preparing to attack Syria. On 20 July, Syrian
papers headlined a Soviet political commentator's remark that "Israel is
beginning preparations for an attack against Syria." Two days later Pravda was
quoted in Syrian papers as affirming that the Arab-Israeli conflict may lead to
"an explosion at any time." For its part, the Syrian press used the theme to assail
Vice President Bush's visit earlier this month to the Middle East as an occasion
for him to consult with Israel on "direct aggression against Syria."
Moscow now considers Kuwait to be its springboard for Soviet involvement and
political influence activities throughout the Persian Gulf,
Cautiously using their presence of about 85 officials, the Soviets place
articles in Kuwaiti newspapers-which circulate widely in the Gulf-in hopes of
creating the impression that the Gulf states have nothing to fear from the USSR.
New Soviet Ambassador Arkipov has masterfully used press conferences to gain
favorable publicity for Soviet policies. In addition, he
Soviets use their diplomatic contacts to cultivate the large Arab expatriate
population in Kuwait, including Palestinians, who work both within and outside
the Kuwaiti media.
On the other hand, the WPC canceled a meeting of its officials and local peace
committee representatives from the eastern Mediterranean and Arab countries
planned for late September in Nicosia Only Libya
and the PLO supported the meeting, while others, such as Jordan, expressed
contempt for such WPC "sloganeering" in the Middle East. The large number of
groups in the region, the diversity of their interests, and government control over
some of the local peace committees have been longstanding obstacles to WPC-
sponsored conferences in the region.
WPC setbacks notwithstanding, we believe that the Middle East will still offer
Moscow numerous propaganda and active measures opportunities in the future. In
Kuwait, for example, we expect the Soviets will direct their media assets to play up
the political and economic benefits to Kuwait of its recently negotiated $150
million loan to Moscow and of other Kuwaiti-Soviet business deals estimated at
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
three-quarters of a billion dollars.' Moscow also is likely to propagandize Arab
criticism of Moroccan King Hassan's unilaterally initiated meeting in July with
Israeli Prime Minister Peres by labeling the event as a US-inspired attempt to
"draw Arab countries into separate Middle East peace talks."
South Asia: Manipulation in India, Pressure in Pakistan,
Deception in Afghanistan, and Money in Bangladesh
South Asia continues to be the scene of a wide range of Soviet political influence
campaigns. During the past quarter, the Soviets improved their already impressive
manipulation of the Indian press, continued their exploitation of the internal
political situation in Pakistan, and produced deceptive televised propaganda in
Afghanistan to support the new Communist regime there.
In a systematic effort to ease their access to the Indian press as well as help fi-
nance newspaper placements, Soviet officials in New Delhi solicited nearly
$20,000 during June from at least 17 Indian businesses.
the Soviet Trade Mission enticed the firms to hire the Soviet-controlled ad
agency, Interads, by promising, in return, that Moscow would favorably consider
future business deals. At the same time, the Soviet Information Department (SID)
offered to help certain Indian newspapers and magazines obtain advertising-from
Interads-if they would agree to publish material provided by SID.
The Soviet and Afghan campaign to infiltrate refugee camps in Pakistan and to
carry out bombings and assassinations in the border region continued. During the
first six months of this year, according to the Pakistan Foreign Ministry, 108
people were killed and nearly 400 injured in bombings or mine explosions, most of
which were carried out by agents of the Afghan intelligence service, KHAD, and
Afghan-trained Pakistani tribesmen
our view, Moscow and the Soviet-run Afghan Government hope to exploit
Pakistani fears and discontent with the over 2 million Afghan refugees there as
well as to weaken both Islamabad's close ties to the United States and its ability to
maintain domestic political support for the Mujahideen insurgents. Recent Soviet
disinformation efforts have paralleled these subversive activities. In late June, for
example, a Lahore daily carried a brief item datelined Moscow alleging that the
Mujahideen were being trained in Pakistan by 1500 American advisers, including
300 CIA agents who were providing instruction in the use of chemical weapons.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
2bAl
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Soviet and Afghan Destabilization Activities in Pakistan
Baluchistan
Province
Area of repeated bombings
Area of intermittent bombings
? Afghan refugee camp
0 150 K,I n eters
0 150 M,Ies
MM
Afg h a njta n
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 I ..
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Meanwhile, Moscow, through its Afghan surrogates, apparently supported the
formation in July of the Awami National Party (ANP)-an alliance of leftist
parties in Pakistan-in hopes of encouraging both anti-Islamabad and anti-US
sentiment there. According to US Embassy reporting, the presence of the Afghan
Consul General in Karachi at the ANP's founding meeting prompted a public
warning from Islamabad-aimed at Moscow and Kabul-that foreign participa-
tion in such meetings violated diplomatic norms and would not be tolerated. In ad-
dition, at the ANP's first public rally, party spokesmen condemned US imperial-
ism in Pakistan and claimed that 70 percent of US weapons provided to the
Afghan insurgents are diverted to the black market, stimulating a dangerous rise
in lawlessness throughout the country.
In a move to polish the image of newly appointed Afghan Communist Party boss
Najibullah, Soviet officials responsible for television in Afghanistan are producing
film clips and still photos that demonstrate his close contacts with Afghan religious
leaders. the Soviets splice friendly crowd scenes
from old file footage of former party chief Karmal into current films of
Najibullah's speeches. In some cases, lines spoken by Najibullah have been erased
and replaced with ones recited by a Dari-speaking Soviet officer.
In the near term, we expect the Soviets and Afghans will continue their
destabilization campaign in Pakistan at current levels. We believe that the Soviets
will be reluctant to increase their subversive activities substantially unless they
decide that the war has reached a critical juncture and that additional pressure on
Pakistan would force a rupture between the insurgents and the Pakistani
government. In Afghanistan itself, where Moscow is seeking to develop an
effective, reliable leader in Najibullah, more Soviet public relations gimmicks-
such as high-profile media events-are likely to be forthcoming. The Soviets will
also continue longstanding efforts to consolidate their position in India, probably
by trying to sell themselves as an attractive alternative to Western economic and
technological ties, and by promoting continued distrust between India and
Pakistan.
East Asia and the Pacific: Targeting ASEAN
The Soviets for years have had little success with active measures and other
political influence techniques in ASEAN member states but remain persistent.
During the past several months they have been particularly active in Thailand,
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Aquino government is still consolidating power.
Soviet activities in Thailand are aimed at
damaging US-Thai relations and strengthening Soviet influence. In recent months
the Soviets have:
? Spread rumors that the United States will establish a military base in Thailand
if it loses existing bases in the Philippines. The rumors probably have exacerbat-
ed existing Thai nervousness on the issue.
? Tried to capitalize on US-Thai trade frictions by offering to buy the affected
Thai exports. Some politicians, businessmen, and academics have demanded
increased trade with the USSR, but this is unlikely given the Soviet preference
to barter rather than pay hard currency for imports.
? Urged Thai politicians to establish a Thai-Soviet friendship association. Several
have tried but their efforts have foundered due to lack of interest and opposition
from the government.
In the Philippines, the Soviets have been trying to build a base of influence in the
Labor Ministry. the Trade Union of the
Philippines and Allied Services (TUPAS), an affiliate of the Soviet-controlled
World Federation of Trade Unions (WFTU), has increased its influence under the
Aquino government. Labor Minister Augusto Sanchez heavily favors the Kilusang
Mayo Uno, a leftist federation, but is also a friend of the head of TUPAS. Sanchez
created a labor advisory committee in the ministry and gave the three WFTU-
affilated unions equal status with the two much larger labor federations. TUPAS
has dominated the committee, and consequently the Trade Union Congress of the
Philippines (TUCP), the largest and most moderate federation, has withdrawn.
Future Soviet efforts in the region may be directed at Indonesia.
Zulharman Said, the Chairman of the Association of
Indonesian Journalists (PWI), says his organization plans to send journalists from
four major dailies and several provincial newspapers to the USSR this year on ex-
change visits. Zulharman wants to show Western press agencies that Indonesia can
turn to socialist countries if the Western press maintains its alleged anti-
Indonesian bias, exemplified recently by Australian press articles on the finances
of President Suharto's family. We expect the Soviets to wine and dine the
journalists in hopes of building influence in the Indonesian press. In our view,
however, this strategy is not likely to result in any significant gains for Moscow.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Although the Indonesian Government allows some favorable press play of the
USSR to enhance its nonaligned image, it probably will permit only known anti-
Communist journalists to participate in the exchange program and give them strict
operating guidelines.
Libya: Retrenching in the Caribbean
Since the US airstrikes on Libya last April, Tripoli-frustrated with the perform-
ance of its clients in the Caribbean and facing growing economic problems at
home-has reduced its support for leftist activities in the Caribbean.
Libya was upset over the lack of support forthcoming
from the region immediately after the US attack and now considers the area a low
priority. Other indications of a change in Libyan policy toward the Caribbean
include:
? A Barbadian leftist's statement in May that there had been no progress toward
the establishment of a Libyan-backed commercial bank in the region-to help
fund leftist political activities-since the idea was first broached in Tripoli two
months earlier
? The indefinite postponement by the Caribbean Nation Movement (CNM}-a
coalition of pro-Libyan leftist groups-of a June conference as a result of Libya's
failure to provide the necessary funds,
Tripoli also rebuffed CNM efforts to
collect on previous Libyan pledges of support for some of the group's other
activities in the region.
Libya's new policy is probably the result of two factors. First, Tripoli may be
temporarily withholding financial support from its Caribbean clients pending a
show of violent anti-US action by these groups. Since the US attack, Libya has
been placing increased emphasis on violent demonstrations and has stepped up its
support of militant separatist groups in the French West Indies
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
q.)(1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
We believe that Libya's Caribbean agenda will remain scaled back for at least the
next few months. Given current economic stringencies, Tripoli almost certainly
will curtail, and perhaps cease, funding the political activities of its more moderate
clients such as the CNM. Nevertheless, its targeting of the region as a base for vio-
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Moscow's Gambit in Southern Africa:
Exploiting Apartheid
As the political situation in southern Africa grows
more turbulent, the USSR is responding with a
stepped-up propaganda and active measures program
to manipulate African, Third World, and Western
opinion, and to increase its ability to influence events
there to its advantage. In our view, Moscow's penetra-
tion of UN organizations responsible for apartheid
issues, its material and financial assistance to the
major southern African liberation movements, and its
continuing disinformation campaign linking Washing-
ton to Pretoria leave the Soviets well positioned to
exploit widespread antiapartheid sentiment and to
erode the political standing of the United States not
only in Africa, but also throughout the world.
Exploiting the United Nations
Moscow has had substantial success in using UN
bodies in its efforts to keep the United States at a
disadvantage on the apartheid issue. One of the major
reasons for this success is the long-term Soviet effort
to penetrate and co-opt UN elements responsible for
dealing with southern African issues.
he Soviets, their Bloc
counterparts, and pro-Soviet sympathizers are able to
exercise considerable influence over the UN Secretar-
iat's Center Against Apartheid, the UN Special Com-
mittee Against Apartheid, and the UN Council on
? In May 1985,I I an East
German secretariat official chaired the Special
Committee Against Apartheid's "International
Conference on Women and Children Under Aparth-
eid" in Tanzania; the Committee funded participa-
tion by four Soviet front groups-the World Peace
Council (WPC), the World Federation of Democrat-
ic Youth (WFDY), the International Union of Stu-
dents, and the Soviet Women's Committee.
? In September 1985, the Special Committee Against
Apartheid and the Hungarian Solidarity Commit-
tee-affiliated with the Soviet-controlled Afro-
Asian People's Solidarity Organization (AAPSO)-
jointly sponsored a conference that attacked alleged
US and Western support for apartheid.
? Until protests early this year forced its removal, the
WPC's monthly newsletter on apartheid, Interna-
tional Mobilization, carried a statement citing that
the publication was produced by the "WPC in
coordination with the UN Centre [sic] Against
Apartheid."
The Special Committee Against Apartheid has been a
particularly successful Soviet influence operation. F_
Namibia.
This influence has allowed Moscow to use the UN to
spread anti-US disinformation, provide UN political
and financial support to nongovernmental organiza-
tions hostile to the United States, and isolate the
United States at major international conferences on
South Africa:
? At an April 1985 conference in Bulgaria, the Coun-
cil on Namibia-heavily influenced by Soviet Bloc
and front groups-charged US and Israeli support
of South African nuclear weapons development. At
another meeting this July in Vienna, the Council
condemned alleged US collaboration with South
Africa.
Soviets were primarily responsible for the strong
statement condemning certain West European gov-
ernments and the United States at the Committee-
sponsored International Conference on Sanctions
Against South Africa, held in Paris in June.
Secret
DI WAMPA 86-002
August 1986
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Marketing Southern African
Liberation Movements
In addition to its successful manipulation of UN
components, Moscow's ability to attack the United
States on the apartheid issue is aided by extensive
Soviet-Bloc support to the primary antiapartheid lib-
eration movements in southern Africa. This year, for
example, the Soviet, East German, and Bulgarian
Communist Parties had representatives of the African
National Congress (ANC) participate in their party
congresses. Beyond such high-level visits, there is
continuing and close collaboration between ANC
representatives and the Soviets in marketing the
political legitimacy of the ANC worldwide:'
? Moscow has stationed liaison officers in ANC of-
fices in Tanzania, Zambia, and Angola.
the Soviets and
their allies bankroll ANC participation in interna-
tional conferences, including some sponsored by the
United Nations.
? ANC leaders work closely with Soviet front groups.
Alfred Nzo, ANC Secretary General, is a Vice
President of the WPC; and the WFDY sponsored an
extended trip to the United States late last year for
one of its ANC representatives.
Moscow's marketing of regional liberation movements
extends beyond the ANC. The Soviets also support
the political agenda of the South-West Africa Peo-
ple's Organization (SWAPO) through, among other
things, conferences sponsored by their front apparatus
and high-profile press coverage of SWAPO's leader-
ship. In addition, recent high-level Soviet overtures to
the Pan-Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC/A) sug-
gest that Moscow is interested in establishing ties to
that group as well.
Moscow capitalizes on its close association with these
movements in its propaganda activities. To reach the
widest possible audience in southern Africa, Radio
Moscow broadcasts regularly in English, Afrikaans,
Zulu, Swahili, and Portugese-with frequent inter-
views and statements by senior ANC and SWAPO
representatives. Within the region, Radio Freedom-
the ANC station-and the Voice of Namibia-the
SWAPO station-originate from Ethiopia. Soviet
print media also give heavy attention to the apartheid
issue, frequently featuring statements by such anti-
apartheid leaders as Oliver Tambo, President of the
ANC, and Winnie Mandela.
Dirty Tricks
Beyond these more or less overt activities, Moscow
directs a substantial disinformation program to tie the
United States to the South African regime. Our
record of probable Soviet forgeries over the past few
years indicates that several have surfaced for the
purpose of "proving" the continuation of US-South
African military cooperation after the cessation of US
military support to South Africa in the late 1970s.
The most recent of these-claiming that the adminis-
tration had agreed to provide US troops to support
South Africa-surfaced in Zimbabwe in June as a
forged letter from a US Senator.
One of the most enduring of these disinformation
campaigns alleging US-South African military coop-
eration concerns purported collaboration in creating
an "ethnic" weapon. Evolving from Soviet charges in
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
1981 of South African testing of chemical and biolog- widely held African view that the United States
ical weapons, the allegation that Pretoria was develop- supports apartheid in South Africa, the Soviets-in
ing a weapon that killed only blacks first surfaced in our view-have made it more difficult for the United
1983 at an ad hoc UN committee hearing. The States to maintain its credibility in the region
following year, it was published by the UN Special
Committee on the Granting of Independence to Colo-
nial Countries and Peoples. Since that time, Israel
and the United States have been accused of providing
technical support. In the past year, it has resurfaced
in at least five African countries-Botswana, Mada-
gascar, Ghana, Mozambique, and Nigeria.
We believe that the Soviets are also behind allegations
of US support to insurgencies directed against the
governments of some Frontline States. In April, a
Radio Mozambique broadcast charged the United
States with supporting RENAMO, the rebel force
opposing the Mozambican Government; the story was
widely believed in Maputo because of US support of
UNITA forces in Angola. Also in April the Zimbab-
wean Minister of Information alleged US support to
Outlook
We believe that the Soviet effort to capitalize on the
apartheid issue will certainly continue and possibly
intensify. Moscow has a solid base for propaganda
operations in the United Nations, and its close associ-
ation with southern African insurgent groups gives it
impeccable credentials as a foe of apartheid. In
addition, there are some indications of Soviet efforts
to revitalize AAPSO as a vehicle for pushing Mos-
cow's views on this issue before Third World audi-
ences. For example, according to its executive plan for
1986, AAPSO plans to expand its antiapartheid activ-
ities, in part, by publicly calling for the release of
Nelson Mandela and other political prisoners. In
terms of Moscow's disinformation program, African
countries present a fairly soft target for these activi-
ties and we believe that, in addition to Zimbabwe, the
Soviets have highly active operations in Ghana, Nige-
ria, Zambia, and Tanzania as well. By reinforcing the
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
International Physicians for the
Prevention of Nuclear War: A Model
Propaganda Vehicle for the Future
The Soviet Union has successfully conducted a cam-
paign to manipulate the International Physicians for
the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW), the recipi-
ent of the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize.
the Soviets have used numerous
tactics to influence the group, including exploiting the
leadership position of Soviet cochairman Yevgeniy
Chazov, targeting the organization for covert action,
and involving IPPNW in the activities of Moscow's
traditional front group apparatus. As a result, the
group has become increasingly critical of the United
States. Encouraged by these developments, senior
Soviet leaders are emphasizing the establishment of
organizations similar to IPPNW in the future, but we
believe Moscow may have some difficulty in duplicat-
ing IPPNW's success.
? Yuriy Zhukov, Chairman of the Soviet Committee
for the Defense of Peace, in a March article in the
Soviet journal International 4f"airs, emphasized the
significance of IPPNW as an example. He called on
"major Soviet scientists, physicians, teachers, ath- 25X1
letes and cultural figures to systematically work on
problems of disarmament, prepare major proposals,
and cooperate with their colleagues in the capitalist
world in the struggle for peace."
? In a press conference on 14 July with representa-
tives of the "International Scientists' Forum for the
Cessation of Nuclear Tests," General Secretary
Gorbachev mentioned IPPNW's development as an
example for scientists opposed to nuclear testing.
Background
While Moscow continues to mobilize its international
front group apparatus and pro-Soviet Communist
parties to promote Soviet initiatives and disparage US
arms control policies, in recent years we have ob-
served an increase in Soviet efforts to reach out
beyond its traditional network of supporters. By ex-
ploiting disarmament sentiment in the West, Mos-
cow's propagandists hope to create a broad-based
opposition to US policies, particularly the Strategic
Defense Initiative (SDI), that will advantage it in
arms control negotiations. Soviet success in promoting
and influencing one such group-IPPNW '-has con-
vinced senior Soviet leaders that IPPNW is a model
vehicle for generating widespread support for Soviet
arms control policies:
' Responding to an invitation from American and Soviet doctors, a
group of physicians from several nations-including the Soviet
Union, Japan, and the United States met in 1981 to form the
IPPNW as a public international forum to express hope for nuclear
restraint. Since that time, it has grown into a large network of
national affiliates that, according to a group spokesman, now
together claim the support of some 150,000 physicians in 49
nations, with most of this membership coming from Bloc countries.
Soviet Influence
The management structure of the IPPNW provides
Moscow with ample opportunities for influence. The
presidium-the most important organ-is composed
of Soviet cochairman Yevgeniy Chazov and his Amer-
ican counterpart, Bernard Lown.
doctors from the Communist Bloc.
Chazov has frequently used his leader-
ship position to obtain the group's endorsement of
Soviet arms control policies. For example, at the Sixth
World Congress of IPPNW in Cologne this May,
Chazov's longstanding public attacks on SDI were
reflected in the final conference document, which
urged other nuclear powers to join the Soviet nuclear
test moratorium and refrain from the "militarization
of space."
Moscow has also used its traditional front group
apparatus in efforts to promote and influence
IPPNW. The organization formerly shared office
space in London with the Generals for Peace and
Secret
DI WAMPA 86-002
August 1986
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Disarmament,2 a Soviet front. In 1984 the World
Peace Council (WPC) instructed its member organi-
zations to ensure that their countries' physicians
attended the IPPNW Congress held that year.=
membership
lists of Soviet fronts-indicates that many IPPNW
members belong to such fronts or take part in their
activities. Indeed, an IPPNW delegation participated
in a meeting last December in Copenhagen of the
WPC-controlled Preparatory Committee for the
"World Congress for the International Year of
Peace," according to the attendance roster.
the Soviets have in the
past tried to influence IPPNW through more covert
means as well.
The Dutch Minister of the Interior
declared to parliament that the BVD had proof of
East Bloc attempts to influence the Congress with
propaganda pamphlets. We suspect that such activi-
ties continue.
While some national IPPNW affiliates are indepen-
dent, others are controlled by local Communists.
IPPNW affiliates in a number of Third World coun-
tries are dominated by Communists. Similarly, the
French affiliate is directed by a core of Communist
physicians and the Greek chapter is apparently closely
tied to the pro-Soviet Greek Communist Party, which
supports the group through its front organization, the
Greek Committee for International Detente and
Peace. But affiliates in several other West European
countries-for example, Finland, West Germany, and
the United Kingdom-have more broad-based mem-
berships.
Since the IPPNW was selected as the recipient of the
1985 Nobel Peace Prize, Soviet efforts to promote the
organization have intensified.
2 Generals for Peace and Disarmament is an affiliate of the Soviet-
sponsored World Peace Council composed of former high-ranking
steps to heighten the group's image in the Third
World and to exploit IPPNW's prestige in Moscow's
"peace offensive" in Western Europe. Soviet and East
European members of IPPNW have played prominent
roles in Soviet peace propaganda over the last several
months. As part of a recently announced worldwide
campaign highlighting the medical consequences of
the nuclear arms race, an IPPNW delegation-after
first stopping in Moscow following the group's Con-
gress in May-made highly publicized visits to Japan
and China.
Increasingly Critical of the United States
Over the years the IPPNW has become increasingly
critical of the West in general and the United States
specifically:
? The Third IPPNW Congress, held in June 1983 in
Amsterdam, produced an appeal that reflected two
longstanding Soviet propaganda lines, namely, that
all nuclear powers must unequivocally agree to
renounce the use of nuclear arms in any conflict,
and that a freeze on nuclear weapons must be
followed by their reduction and ultimate elimination
from the arsenals of all countries.
? After the Fifth Congress of the IPPNW held in
Budapest in June 1985, US arms control policies
received more criticism than those of the Soviet
Union from speakers such as former Austrian
Chancellor Bruno Kreisky and West German Social
Democratic Party leader Willy Brandt.
? At the Fifth Medical Congress for the Prevention of
Nuclear War in Mainz, Germany, in November
1985, retired West German General Gard Bastian,
a leading member of the Generals for Peace and
Disarmament, spoke against Bonn's policies. In
addition, the West German press reported that
2,000 of the participants held a demonstration in
Wiesbaden to protest the number of NATO military
installations in that region.
A Qualified Propaganda Success
Although IPPNW has been useful to Moscow in its
international propaganda campaign on disarmament,
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
IPPNW cochairman Chazov (left) and Lown
receive the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo last
it has caused Moscow some problems as well. When
the group was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last
year, Chazov's past involvement in an official Soviet
campaign against Andrei Sakharov received consider-
able criticism in the West. West German Chancellor
Helmut Kohl joined 10 other leaders of Western
Europe's affiliated Christian parties in a protest
against the award; the award was also widely criti-
cized within Norway and alternative ceremonies were
held in Oslo for an award to a dissident Soviet
left) and Lown (middle left) in the Kremlin
several days after the Nobel award ceremony.
physicians took the lead in representing Soviet Physi-
cians for the Prevention of Nuclear War at peace
conferences and in Soviet press interviews. When
Chazov again assumed the spotlight at the May
World Congress, he announced that Soviet dissident
A. I. Shatravka, an activist in the independent Soviet
peace organization "Group to Establish Trust Be-
tween the USSR and USA," would be released by the
Soviet Government in response to an appeal by
IPPNW.
psychiatrist.
More recently, heavyhanded efforts by the group's
leadership to focus discussion of the Chernobyl' acci-
dent exclusively on the incident's implications for
nuclear war prompted some protest from the group's
rank and file. At the group's World Congress in May,
many West German physicians were dissatisfied with
the refusal of IPPNW leaders to permit significant
discussion of the dangers of civilian nuclear power.
Der Spiegel reported that the group's cochairmen
demurred, on the grounds that neither was an expert
in that area, a position that found unanimous support
on the IPPNW Executive Committee, which declared
itself "for the discussion of nuclear war and nothing
else."
More IPPNWs Ahead
We believe that the Gorbachev regime will push hard
to establish other groups along the lines of IPPNW.
Amid Soviet concern over the effectiveness of tradi-
tional front groups such as the WPC and growing
public recognition of these groups' Soviet backing, the
formation of joint Soviet-Western organizations of
middle-class professionals offers Moscow an attrac-
struggle in defense of peace."
ed in July that a group called the "Soviet-American
Committee on International Architects, Designers,
and Planners for the Prevention of Nuclear War" had
been formed, with its copresident A. Polyanskiy pro-
claiming that the organization sought to "join the
In our view, however, Soviet handling of the criticism
of Chazov's human rights record suggests that Mos-
cow is well prepared to deal with such problems. In
the months after the Nobel Prize award, other Soviet
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Transferring the IPPNW model to other arenas may
not be as simple as it might seem to the Soviet
leadership. Undoubtedly a large measure of IPPNW's
current success is due to its ability to comment
authoritatively on the medical consequences of nucle-
ar war, Chazov's political position in the USSR and
his leadership skills, and the fact that IPPNW was the
first group of its kind. Most of these factors are
unlikely to be replicated in future organizations.
Indeed, Soviet success in manipulating IPPNW and
its efforts to push the development of similar groups
are vulnerable to public exposure.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Calendar of Key Events, 1986-87
8-26 September Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) Review Conference, Geneva.
Because of the wide gap between the US and Soviet positions on the compliance is-
sue, we believe that Moscow will try to gain maximum propaganda value by
pointing to Gorbachev's proposal to ban chemical weapons, the interim agreement
to prohibit CW transfer, and its touted flexibility on verification. The Soviets are
likely to divert questions on compliance by arguing that BWC parties should await
the outcome of ongoing negotiations on chemical weapons before tackling that
16-22 September 11th World Trade Union Congress, Berlin. (See text for details.)
16 September- UN General Assembly, New York. (See text for details.)
mid-December
19-20 September Shultz-Shevardnadze presummit meeting, Washington, D.C. This meeting will be
an important factor in setting Moscow's propaganda direction for the anticipated
next summit.
perceive as their political isolation in Western Europe.
Conference on Central America, Rome. Initiated by the Sandinistas, this confer-
ence is being sponsored by the Italian Institute for African, Latin American, and
Middle Eastern Studies (IPALMO), a leftist organization strongly influenced by
the Italian Communist Party. the
Sandinistas view IPALMO's sponsorship as a breakthrough in ending what they
use this demonstration as a means of reviving the peace movement.
West German peace movement demonstration against the stationing of US cruise
missiles at Hesselbach. Although INF deployment is an issue of declining interest
in West Germany, we expect the pro-Soviet German Communist Party to try to
Municipal elections, Greece. I the pro-
Soviet Greek Communist Party (KKE) plans to exploit the governing Panhellenic
Socialist Movement's (PASOK) call for political cooperation to gain PASOK
support in districts where KKE electoral prospects are poor after the first round.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
15-19 October World Congress for the UN International Year of Peace, Copenhagen. (See text
for details.)
Secret
DI WAMPA 86-002
August 1986
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
20-23 October 10th Congress of International Organization of Journalists (IOJ), Sofia. This
quadrennial meeting of the IOJ-a Soviet front-will likely push the "New
International Information Order." The Afro-Asian People's Solidarity Organiza-
tion-another Soviet front-used this theme at an international conference last
April in Kabul.
24-31 October UN Disarmament Week. The Soviets will use Disarmament Week-an annual
celebration highlighting the UN's role in educating the public on disarmament
issues-to promote their views on "Star Peace," a comprehensive nuclear test ban,
and a binary chemical weapons ban. Various events will be scheduled for the week,
many of them sponsored by Soviet front groups with Nongovernmental Organiza-
tion (NGO) status in the United Nations. Military reporting suggests that the
Soviets are trying to increase their influence over the Under Secretary General for
Disarmament Affairs-who is in charge of Disarmament Week and the World
Disarmament Campaign-by providing him with extravagant gifts.
the nonmilitarization of space."
12th General Assembly of World Federation of Democratic Youth (WFDY),
Budapest. At this triennial meeting of the WFDY-a Soviet front-the organiza-
tion will probably make SDI its major target. Last November, following a meeting
of its Executive Committee in Berlin, the WFDY issued a worldwide appeal "for
States.
CSCE Review Conference, Vienna. At the conference, we believe that the Soviets
will continue to stress the theme of "mutual European concerns" and try to
propagandize the view that the onus for successful negotiations is on the United
17-18 November Herald Tribune's International Symposium on SDI, Paris. As part of its
worldwide campaign against SDI, Moscow is certain to send at least one seasoned
propagandist-such as Colonel-General Chervov of the Soviet General Staff- to
attend the symposium. Past practice suggests that the Soviet participants will
make themselves available to the Western media in an effort to press their views
before as large an audience as possible.
the Sandinistas are promoting this
development problems.
conference-a followup to the October Conference on Central America in
Rome-in an effort to focus West European attention on Nicaragua's economic
approach this year.
Bundestag election, West Germany. We expect Moscow to task the pro-Soviet
German Communist Party to try to influence the outcome of the election in favor
of the Social Democratic Party-which has publicly stated its intentions to cancel
the INF basing agreement if elected. Given the failure of heavyhanded Soviet
influence tactics in the 1983 election, we believe Moscow will take a more subtle
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
February Conference of the International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War,
Auckland, New Zealand. According to a Japanese press report, this Soviet-
manipulated group plans to discuss the nuclear threat in the Pacific region.
Moscow probably will play up any antinuclear declarations from the meeting as
National election, Malta. As in past years, Libya probably will provide funds to
the ruling Labor Party for the election, which, constitutionally, must be held by
May 1987-but, which could take place at any time-in an attempt to ensure that
it retains power. Already Qadhafi uses Malta as a base for disseminating
propaganda to and carrying out terrorist activities in Western Europe. A Labor
victory probably would expand the party's ties to Libya even further.
25X1
25X1
Ninth World Congress of Women's International Democratic Federation (WIDF),
Moscow. This quadrennial meeting of the WIDF-a Soviet front group-will be
used by the USSR to push Gorbachev's 15 January 1986 initiative to eliminate nu-
clear weapons by the year 2000, In order to 25X1
generate interest in the conference, especially among NGOs, the WIDF and its na-
tional affiliates reportedly have already begun sponsoring a series of regional
meetings around the world. 0 25X1
11 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8
Secret
Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/29: CIA-RDP87T00685R000300420003-8