EFFORT TO HALT SPREAD OF A-ARMS SAID TO FALTER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00029R000200430030-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 23, 2007
• Sequence Number: 30
• Publication Date: July 21, 1982
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

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. ;ffort to'Halt Spread of A-A rM' Said to Falter,
1
By JUDITH MILLER
Specia; to The New Yort Times
WASHINGTON, June 20 - United
States officials and nuclear policy spe-
cialists tear that they may be losing a
35-;year-old battle to curb the spread of
Critics of the Reagan Administration
say the White House has placed insuffi-
cient emphasis on stopping nuclear pro-
lilzration. A policy put forth in a paper
approved last month by President Rea-
gan, they argue, will lead to increased
etstiioution of plutonium, a material
used in nuclear weapons, which will un-
dermine efforts to slow the spread of
atomic arms.
Administration officials deny th4t
this will be the effect of the policy. But
officials and private analysts agree that
efforts to discourage the spread of nu-
clear arms have been severely compli
cared by growing international and re-
gional tensions that put pressure on na-
tions such as Israel and Argentina to de-
velop and test atomic devices.
Robert H. Kupperman, a nuclear spe-
cialist at'Georgetown University's Cen-
ter for Strategic and International Stud-
ies, said with reference to the Israeli in-
vasion of Lebanon and the British-Ar-
gt:ntine fighting in the Falklands:
"We had better start thinking not just.
about how to stop nations from getting l
nuclear weapons, but how to stop them
from using the weapons they will inevi-
tably get."
"The emergence of some new nuclear
powers is unavoidable," concluded
Lewis A. Dunn in a book published soon
after he joined the Administration as
special assistant to Under Secretary of
State Richard T. Kennedy, a central fig-
tire in nuclear policy matters.
Many nuclear specialists have jn-
creasingly begun to focus on "manag-
ing" a world in which many nations
have nuclear weapons, rather than on
preventing the spread of the weapons.
But the Reagan Administration re-
mains officially committed to prevent-
ing the spread. In Senate testimony last
month, Mr. Kennedy called this a "fun-
eamentalcommitment." - .. ?
Toward that goal, the Administration
has emphasized measures to allay polit-
ical and military security concerns of
countries and to enhance regional
stability.
U.N. Aide Hacks U.S. Stand
This approach has been criticized by
,several Congressional nuclear ? policy
specialists. But it has been warmly en-
dorsed by, among others, Hans Blix, di-
rector general of the International
Atomic Energy Agency, the United Na-
tions organization in Vienna that pro-
motes atomic energy and monitors nu-
clear facilities to verify that they are
not being used for military purposes.
Mr. Blix has repeatedly voiced con-
.tern that India, Israel, Pakistan and
South.Africa refused to sign the 1970
treaty that became the cornerstone of ;
efforts to halt the spread of nuclear
weapons.
"The alarm bells are ringing loud and
clear with respect to these four," Mr.
Blix said early this year. .
Under the treaty, 116 nations have
forsworn nuclear weapons ; 45 have not.
Causes for Nuclear Worry
Nuclear policy specialists say these
other alarms are sounding, if somewhat
more softly:
9No country capable of developing
atomic weapons has acceded to the;
treaty In the last .five years. Switzer-
land was the most recent.
9The International Atomic Energy
Agency has become increasingly polar-
ized and politicized, as have many other
United Nations organizations. Some
Government analysts fear that growing
political confrontations between West-
ern industrialized countries and devel-
oping nations could eventually under-
mine the agency's system of interna-
tional safeguards, such as inspections. .
9lsrael's attack on an Iraqi research
reactor a year ago weakened the Inter-
national Atomic Energy Agency's abil-
ity to safeguard nuclear facilities osten-
sibly designed for peaceful purposes.,
The air strike touched off a debate on
whether the agency was capable of
quickly detecting a diversion of nuclear
material from a facility. The dispute
has further shaken international confi-
dence in the agency.
'IA sagging demand for energy has
triggered a slump in sales of nuclear
reactors and a decline in the growth of
nuclear power. This, in turn, has in-
creased strains on the international sys-
tem of export controls aimed at slowing
the spread of sensitive technology to
countries that might be trying to de-
velop nuclear weapons.
9Growing sophistication of terrorist
groups and a spread of "mininukes"
has increased the threat of nuclear ter-
rorism, Administration officials say. i
The Central Intelligence Agency has
concluded, for example, that in Europe!
there is a "moderate likelihood" that
there could be an attempt to damage a j
nuclear weapons storage facility, to at-.
tack a weapon in transit, to raid a nu- -
clear power plant or to carry out black- ;
mail by threatening to use a nuclear;
weapon or by pretending to have one.
9Lack of progress on arms control,
agreements between the United States
and the Soviet Union has led to a surge
in nuclear weapons arsenals and de-
structive ability. This, in turn, encour-
ages nonnuclear nations to develop a
nuclear ability, Mr. Blix and other spe-
cialists contend.
U.S. Concerned by Argentina
'The conflict over the Falkland Is-
lands focused Administration concern
on Argentina. While there have been no
startlingly new developments in Argen
,,tin's nuclear program, now in its 31st
year, some Administration officials
fear that the conflict with Britain may
"prompt Argentina to' build a nuclear
bomb, especially since ,the Falkland
surrender caused a loss of face for
Buenos Aires. ? :. "
The Central Intelligence Agency has
estimated that Argentina could build an
atomic bomb in three to five years if it
chose o do so. A new report prepared
by the Congressional Research Service
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Dr. Abraham J.,Kastelman, head of nuclear research for Argentina, at the atomic energy plant in Bariloche. U.S.
Intelligence estimates that Argentina could build an atomic bomb in three to five years. ;
concludes that Argentina would be able
to test a nuclear explosive by the mid-
1980's, "if it is willing to run the risks of
getting caught at diverting safeguarded
i materials or of abrogating its safe-
guards agreements." But the report
also states that Argentina could not
produce an arsenal of weapons until the
1990's at the earliest.
Argentina poses a special problem
not only because it has declined to sign
the nonproliferation treaty or to submit
all of its nuclear facilities to inspection,
but also because it is building what is
known as an "independent fuel cycle"
- the ability to produce everything re-
quired for nuclear power. This would
give Argentina the ability to make nu-
clear weapons quickly, without violat-
ing any sa: guaru's agreements.
Bomb Helps Weak Feel Strong
"Nuclear tests are political state-
ments, a country's way of showing that
it has hair on its chest," said Warren H.
Donnelly, a senior specialist at the Li-
brary of Congress and author of the re-
port on Argentina. "So naturally there
is concern about the growth of pres-
sures that could lead a country like Ar-
gentina to prove that it is tough."
Mr. Donnelly and other specialists
are also concerned about Argentina's
proclaimed intention'to export plutoni-
um, which arms control officials assert
would immeasurably complicate ef-
forts to stop the spread of atomic weap-
ons and would increase the threat of nu-
clear terrorism. The atomic weapons
material is a man-made substance that
is extremely toxic.
The Reagan Administration is also
concerned about China's nuclear export
policies. Intelligence reports indicate
. Pakistan Resists Inspection
Another source of Administration
concern is Pakistan, which has been re-
sisting for more than six months the In-
ternational, Atomic Energy Agency's
requests for improvements in inspec-
tion arrangments. The agency has said
it can no longer assure that Pakistan is
not diverting nuclear material for mili-
tary purposes until it agrees to the
changes.
die C.T.A. concluded recently that
while Pa istan wo d be able to test an
a omit evice wr n three years, i was
no l i k e l y n e igence o icials
toncludLId in s imate ast ecm-
ber' arTTie-area an Administration's
six-year, i ion milita an
nomic at pro ram a made Pakistan
re uctant to test anatomic evice.
Several Administration officials con-
sider Pakistan a key test of President
Reagan's approach to stemming the
spread of nuclear weapons. Other ana-
lysts, however, say the Administra-
tion's emphasis on thwarting the deto-
nation of nuclear devices is misplaced.
Israeli Tests Calle*.l ti::nef,! '
"Israel, which is only a screwdriver 1
away from a bomb, is so sophisticated
and has access to such good information
that it doesn't need to test," asserted
one Administration official.
India, which tested a device in 1974,
has also aroused concern- The Adminis-
tration has been trying to terminate a
1963 agreement to supply fuel for In
dia's Tarapur nuclear power while persuading the Indians to adhere
to international inspection of the reac-
tor and fuel already shipped.
But Robert F. Goheen,-Ambassador
to India until 1980, said recently that In-
dian and American diplomats had told
him that India was preparing to trans- '
fer the spent, or used, fuel to a nearby
plant for reprocessing, in apparent
violation of its agreement.
that China - a nuclear power that has'
not signed the tre;Ety or joined the Inter-
national Atomic Energy Agency - has
attempted to sell through third parties
heavy water to Argentina, and even to
India despite the two countries' border
conflicts.
Officials said that China's unwilling-
ness to demand inspection of its nuclear
exports is a major obstacle to conclud-
ing a nuclear cooperation agreement
with the United States, which has been
the subject of low-level diplomatic dis-
cussions between the two Governments.
.i _ tiff .r!_Y ?-i,?~. _~.
South Africa a Problem
South Africa is also viewed as a
major problem, but last month the Ad-!
n7ily&na66-n adopted a more flexible
policy that would allow the United
States to increase sales of nuclear ma-
terials to Pretoria.
Senator Charles H. Percy, Republi-
can of Illinois and chairman of the For-
eign Relations Committee, said last
month that nuclear nonproliferation
was "slipping among our foreign policy
priorities" and that the world appeared
on the verge of returning to "nuclear
laissez-faire" by major suppliers.
Some members of Congress have
strongly criticized the Administration
for issuing a new policy paper that per-
mits advanced countries to have more
control over the reprocessing of Ameri-
can-supplied fuel. .
They have also chided the Adminis-
tration for considering the sale of cen-
trifuge enrichment technology to Aus-
tralia and for a vague offer to Mexico of
assistance with research relating to re-
processing - the separation of uranium
and plutonium from spent nuclear fuel.
The Carter Administration tried to
discourage both those technologies, ar-
guing that they produce materials that
can easily be used in weapons, thereby
complicating efforts to curb the spread
of weapons.
By contrast, the Reagan Administra-
tion has said the United States `would
not inhibit reprocessing, enrichment or
development of the breeder reactor,
which produces more plutonium than it
consumes, in countries with advanced
nuclear programs that do not pose a
weapons risk.
Last month Under Secretary Ken-
nedy said this policy was more selective
and a .."realistic recognition" that
Japan and other European countries be-
lieved that these activities were re-
quired for energy security. But he
stressed that the Administration was
not "encouraging" a spread of the
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sensitive technology:' .'
These explanations have not per-
suaded. the strongest Congressional
skeptics. Three Democrats - Senator
Gary Hart of Colorado, Representative
Jonathan B. Bingham of the Bronx and
Representative Richard L. Ottinger of I
Westchester -have introduced legisla-
tion to tighten several major loopholes
in nuclear export laws.
Quiet Diplomacy Stressed
Mr. Kennedy predicted last month
that the Administration's "quiet, diplo--
matic steps and measured technical ap-
proach" had the best chance of achiev-
ing nonproliferation objectives.
in some respects,. the debate over I
nonproliferation reflects a lons-t.andine
aisagreement ahout the role of atomic
energy. ' . ''... .
Some critics maintain that because
all nuclear power plants' are potential
atom-bomb factories, the only effective
solution to the spread of such weapons
is to phase out all nuclear development,
both at home and for export.
Proponents of nuclear power respond
that it is the only viable source of power
for many countries and that prolifera-
tion can be controlled through diploma-
cy, international safeguards and tight
export controls focused on a few na-
tions.
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