LETTER TO WILLIAM J. CASEY FROM LIONEL H. OLMER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87M00539R002403970009-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 59
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 21, 2009
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: January 4, 1984
• Content Type: LETTER

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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
The Under Secretary for International Trade
44 ~,, Washington, D.C. 20230
Execti ;ve re ~ s;r y
097
January 4, 1984
The Honorable
William J. Casey
Director
Central Intelligence Agency
c/o 345. Old Executive
Office Building
Washington, D. C. 20505
Attached are two publications you might want to quickly peruse.
One is a list of the publications that reports what the
International Trade Administration has issued in the course
of the last year or so, and the other is a summary of an
extensive annual report on our outlook for American industry
in 1985 -- it got good media coverage and I think is a
credible piece of work even though it has to be highly
estimative.
As you know, I am off to Moscow in the morning and want very
much to see you on my return.
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 DEPARTMENT COMMERCE
International Trade Administration
FOR RELEASE
JAN1 85
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The 1985 U.S. Industrial Outlook: Summary and Highlights
Introduction
For the past 25 years, the Department of Commerce has published an Industrial
Outlook which chronicles the growth of the economy in terms of the many
in' ustry sectors which make it up. Today we announce the publication of the
26th edition of the outlook, which will be available in January 1985.
The outlook is a basic reference text for all those who seek microeconomic
information on industrial growth and trade. Nowhere else is the U.S. economy
broken down into such detail. Nowhere else is there a record of such detailed
information which exists over a 26-year time span. The Outlook will be of use
to those engaged in market planning and development, corporate planning,
merger and acquisition planning, and business research.
This year, the outlook covers more industries and provides more information
and analyses on American business competing in world markets than ever
before. It is a more complete reference, covering over 350 industries in
approximately 700 pages. More coverage has been devoted to service
industries, and emerging industries such as videotex and teletext services,
composites, ceramics, biotechnology, robotics, and computer aided design and
manufacturing are covered for the first time. The analytical material has
been upgraded and more comprehensive statistics are offered.:
The Outlook is the product of more than 100 industry analysts in the
Department of Commerce. Due to the growing recognition of the importance of
international competition and world markets in developing a forward-looking
program for supporting U.S. industries, the Outlook staff and industry
analysts have been relocated from the former Bureau of Industrial Economics to
the International Trade Administration. The result of this move has been a
broadening of the Department's scope with respect to industrial analysis, and
therefore a clearer picture of U.S. industry prospects. Given the breadth of
the Outlook, the chapters provide essentially a 'snapshot' of each industry at
a given int in time.
Methodology and Assumptions
The 1985 Industrial Outlook is essentially a compiled and integrated forecast
of the growth rates fran 1984 to 1985 of more than 350 industries which make
up the U.S. economy. The most recent Census data available is for 1982. All
numbers for succeeding years are estimates, short-term projections, or
longer-range forecasts.
The forecasting process for the U.S. Industrial outlook begins with an overall
macroeconomic forecast of the U.S. economy consisting of a short-run forecast
for one year ahead, and longer-run forecasts extending 5 years into the
future. These scenarios are used to provide projections of final demand for
major gross national product categories and then are subjected to an
input-output modeling technique to translate those broad forecasts into (2-
and 4- digit)
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industry shipments forecasts. These macroeconomic and industry projections
are provided to the industry specialists responsible' for the preparation of
individual sector forecasts. This information is applied by the industry
specialists to their assigned industries. They adjust these industry
forecasts to reflect specific developments which their judgment indicates will
affect the outcome.
Econometric industry forecasts have limitations. While the macroeconomic
environment greatly influences overall activity, special circumstances with
respect to any given industry will sometimes outweigh the effect of general
economic conditions on that industry. Industry specialists, therefore, rely
heavily on their special industry-specific knowledge to develop'their
particular chapters and use these macroeconomic assumptions. and forecasts as
guides only.
The near term macroeconomic forecast upon which the Outlook is based is taken
from the 1984 Mid-Session Budget Review released by the Office of Management
and Budget in August 1984. This Review estimated a real gross national
product (GNP) increase of 7.3 percent from 1983 to 1984. During the first
half of 1984, real GNP growth accelerated to an annual rate of about 9
percent; inflation slowed to about 4 percent; unemployment declined to 7.5
percent; industrial production increased about 9.5 percent and business fixed
investment about 22 percent above the low point of the recession in 1982. As
we now know, the economy has moderated in the second half of this year,
although inflation and unemployment have remained stable, and preliminary 1984
GNP estimates made in December indicate an average annual growth rate of 6.7
percent.
Both the near-term and longer-range macroeconomic forecasts are produced by
the Department of Commerce, Office of Industry Assessment using the Wharton
econometric model. These forecasts assume that a number of current
controversial issues regarding Federal fiscal and monetary policy -- e.g., the
Federal budget deficit, the tax system, the rate of growth of the money supply
-- are somehow resolved early in 1985. Projected moderate growth and expected
action on the Federal deficit should allow interest rates to decline, bring
downward pressure on the value of the dollar in international markets, and
lower the trade deficit. With coincident projected economic. recoveries of
U.S. trading partners, U.S. exports are expected to revive and slowly reduce
the trade gap.
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The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also assumed to be accommodating in
1985, with monetary aggregates (Ml and M2) assumed to remain well within their
target ranges.
Finally, fiscal policy in 1985 is assumed to follow the Administration's
assumptions underlying the.1984 Mid-Session Budget Review released by the
Office of Management and Budget in August 1984. This review envisaged cuts in
non-defense expenditures, and increases in defense expenditures-both in real
terms.
Under these assumptions:
o U:S. GNP moderates to an annual rate of 4.3 percent in 1985 -- the
figure used to make industry projections for the 1985 Outlook.
o The inflation rate, as measured by the GNP deflator, is expected to
continue at about 4.5 percent. Wage increases are expected to be
approximately 4 percent in 1985, and productivity growth is expected
to slow to about 1.5 percent by the end of the year. The civilian
unemployment rate is projected to fall to 7 percent in 1985, from 7.4
percent in 1984. This improvement would occur despite a slowdown in
production, and is compatible with the expected decline in
productivity growth. Most of the slowing of the economy can be
traced to the manufacturing sector.
o Personal consumption expenditures are projected to grow at 3.1
percent in 1985 compared to 5.1 percent in 1984. Most of the decline
will occur in consumer purchases of durable goods.
o Fixed investment expenditures by business are projected to grow at
10.2 percent in 1985, down from 19.8 percent in 1984.
o As economic growth moderates in 1985, housing starts are projected to
fall below 1984 levels, to less than 2 million units.
o Exports are projected to rise 6.1 percent in 1985 as economic
recovery abroad gains momentum. With gradual depreciation of the
U.S. dollar in 1985, along with a slowing of U.S. economic growth,
real imports are projected to grow 3.5 percent in 1985. The real
trade balance remains negative for 1985, although less than the $125
billion deficit expected for 1984. Improvements in the real trade
balance are expected after 1985.
o Total real government purchases are assumed to increase by about 6.3
percent in 1985. Defense purchases would increase by 7.7 percent,
and ncn-defense purchases by 6.7 percent. State and local government
purchases would increase by 5.5 percent.
Further details are available in Table 1 on the following page.
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Forecast for 1984-85,-Real Gross National Product*
(billions of 1972 dollars)
Actual
Project
1983
1983
1984
Growth
1984
1985
Growth
1985
share
83-84
share
84-85
share
(percent)
(percent
percent)
(percent)
(percent)
Gross national product
1,S34.7
100.0
1,646.0
7.
100.0
1,716.9
4.3
100.0
Personal consumption
1,009.2
65.8
1,060.9
5.1
64.4
1,093.5
3.1
63.7
Durables
157.4
10.3
177.1
12.5
10.8
181.1
2.3
10.5
Non-durables
376.3
24.5
394.0
4.7
23.9
405.8
3.0
23.6
Services
475.4
31.0
489.8
3.0
29.7
506.6
3.4
29.6
Gross private domestic investment
221.1
]4.A
291.1
31.7
17.7
306.8
5.4
17.9
Fixed investment
224.7
14.6
265.5
18.2
16.1
286.3
7.8
16.7
Non-residential
171.0
11.1
204.8
19.8
12.4
225..7
10.2
13.1
Structures
49.2
3.2
57.6
17.1
3.S
61.8
7.3
3.6
Producer durables
121.8
7.9
147.3
20.9
8.9
163.9
11.3
9.S
Residential
53.7
3.5
60.7
13.0
3.7
60.6
-0.2
3.5
Change in business Inventories
-3.6
-0.2
25.6
-
1.6
20.6
-
1.2
Net exports
12.6
0.8
-8.6
-
-0.5
-5.1
-
-0.3
Exports
139.4
9.1
147.8
6.0
9.0
156.8
6.1
9.1
Imports
126.9
8.3
156.4
23.2
9.5
161.9
3.S
9.4
Government purchases
291.9
19.0
302.6
3.7
18.4
321.7
6.3
18.7
Federal
116.2
7.6
122.2
5.2
7.4
131.4
7.5
7.6
Defense
84.7
S.S
91.0
7.4
5.5
98.0
7.7
5.7
Non-defense
31.S
2.1
31.3
-0.6
-1.9
33.4
6.7
1.9
State and local
175.7
11.4
180.4
2.7
11.0
190.3
S.S
11.1
*Forecast developed October 1984 for the 1985 U.S. INDUSTRIAL OUTLOOK.
Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.
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The 1986-89 Macroeconomic Forecast - The longer term economic assumptions
underlying the Outlook ore based on 9 1986-89 forecast of an average annual
U.S. growth rate of 4.0 percent. Inflation through 1989 is projected at the
present annual rate of 3.9 percent, and the unemployment rate is expected to
decline to 5.8 percent.
One of the major driving forces in these long-run projections is demographic
shifts occurring in the United States. During the past two decades, the
baby-boom generation entered the labor force in large numbers, while
social and economic changes encouraged women to participate in the labor
force in increasing numbers. The increase in the supply of labor was
accompanied by real-wage growth at a much slower rate, and by sluggish
productivity change, even stagnation, in the later 1970's.
The U.S. population is expected to grow in the 1980's at a rate averaging 0.9
percent, a significant reduction from the 1.2 percent averaged in the past 25
years. This estimate is implicit in the preliminary population projections of
the Bureau of Census based on the 1980 Census. The dominant factor is the
passing of the baby-boomers out of the prime. childbearing years. Fewer people
are now turning 18 and entering the working force population, and there is
probably an upper limit to the rate of increase in female participation.
Accordingly, the labor force is projected to expand by 20 million, or 18
percent, between 1983 and 1995. This slowdown will also mean a slowdown in
the employment growth rate--from a record of 27 percent between 1971 and 1983,
to 21 percent between 1983 and 1995.
Other assumptions on which the 1986-89 forecast is based include:
o Non-farm productivity growth, which averaged about 1.2 percent in the
10-year period 1972-83, is projected at 1.9 percent per year in the
following decade (1983-93).
o- A major concern in U.S. fiscal policy area is federal deficit
reduction. Fundamental tax reforms are assumed, including some
broadening of the tax base and increase in tax rates. Even with
selective spending cuts, however, the federal deficit is assumed to
remain sizeable--above $140 billion;--through 1989.
o Monetary policy is assumed to remain' unchanged during 1965-89, with
current monetary growth targets of 5.5 percent for M1 and 7.5 percent
for M2 not changing significantly during the forecast period. Given
the forecast for 1965 of higher economic growth, such money targets
may imply a slight rise-in interest rates.
o Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) are expected to increase at
a 3.1 percent annual rate over the period 1986-89--the same rate as
projected for 1984-85. PCE as a percent of total gross national
 product is expected to decline slightly--from 64.4 percent in 198^, to
61.6 percent in 1989. Durable goods purchases a.e forecast to grow
at a 4.1 percent average annual rate from 1986 to 1989, compared with a 2.6
percent rate for non-durable goods purchases over the same period.
Services are expected to grow at an annual rate of 3.2 percent.
o Non-residential fixed investment is projected to grow at 6.0 percent
per year from 1986 to 1989--less than the 10.8 annual growth rate
expected for 1983 to 1985.
u Residential construction is expected to decline from an average annual
growth rate of 16.3 percent in 1983-85 to 1.5 percent in 1985-89.
o It is assumed that the Administration's budget plans for defense and
non-defense spending given in the Mid-Session Budget Review will be
carried out over the 1986-89 period. If total federal purchases grow
at a 3.9 percent annual rate from 1986 to 1989, the defense component
will increase about 5.4 percent per year during the same period. State
and local government purchases are expected to grow at about 1.8 percent
annually during the 1986-89 period.
Further details are available in Table 2 below.
Table 2
Assumed Annual Real GNP Growth Rates, 1983-85 and 1986-89
(average annual rates and percent share)
Gross national product
?5.1
4.0
100.0
Pers. consumption exp.
4.3
3.1
61.6
Durables
9.0
4.1
10.6
Nondurables
3.8
2.6
22.4
Services
3.3
3.2
28.6
Fixed investment
11.9
5.1
17.4
Nonresidential
10.8
6.0
14.2
Structures
5.5
4.3 4
3.7
PDE
13.2
6.7 .
10.5
Residential investment
18.3
1.5
3.2
Exports
2.2
8.0
10.7
Imports
11.5
1.6,
8.5
Government purchases
3.2
2.7
17.9
Federal
Co
3.9
7.6
Defense
7.4
5.4 .
6.0
Non-defense
-3.6
-0.9
1.6
State and local purchases
2.7
1.9
10.2
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Highlights of the Outlook for Manufacturing Industries
Of the 350 industries covered in the-Outlook, most are included in the
manufacturing sector. Appendix Table 1 ranks 209 of these industries by the
growth rates projected for each in 1985 Outlook. The estimated rates for 1984
and the actual compound annual long-term rates for the 1972-82. period are
shown to place the current forecast in perspective. All rates are based on
industry shipments measured in 1972 dollars. Most of the industries are
defined at the four-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) level; in a
few cases, however, the "industry" is an aggregation of two or more four-digit
industries. ?
In general, shipments are projected to increase in 1985 for 177 of the 209
industries (85 percent), while the remainder are projected to decline or show
zero growth. For most of the 209 industries -- almost three-fourths -- growth
rates are projected to be less in 1985 than they were in 1984 during the rapid.
recovery from the 1981-1982 recession.
Among those industries projected to increase in growth in 1985, most will have
only slightly higher growth rates; only a few exceptions are expected to have
sharply higher growth rates. These exeptions include several of the primary
metals industries, which were severely affected by the recession and are
recovering later than most industries, and some aerospace industries which
will benefit from increased defense spending in 1985. The forecast growth
rates, though modest in comparison with 1984, still will exceed historical
rates for about 70 percent of the manufacturing industries. Also, about 70
percent of the industries with negative long-term growth should show positive
growth in 1985, although in some cases the positive rates are more a
reflection of a very low shipments base in 1985 rather than a basic turnaround.
A distribution of the 209 industries by growth rates for 1984-85 and 1983-1984
is shown below in Table 3.
Table 3
Distribution of Manufacturing Industries by Growth Rates
84/85 (Projected)
83/84 (Estimated)
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
10% and greater 17
8.1
54
23.8
5% to 10% 52
24.9
67
32.1
0% to 5% 112
53.6
65
31.1
-5% to 0% 25
12.0
13
6.2
-5% or less 3
1.4
10
4.6
Growth equal to 82
39.2
79
37.8
or greater than
GNP growth (percent) of 4.3 (forecast) 7.3 (estimate)
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A comparision of manufacturing growth between 1984 (estimated and 1985
(projected) indicates that:
o Approximately the same number of industries will grow at a rate equal
to or greater than GNP in 1985 (82) compared to 1984 (79).
o. Approximately the same number of industries will experience positive
or zero rates of growth in 1985 (181) compared to 1985 (186).
o The number of industries projected to grow to 10 percent or.greater
will be significantly less in.1985 (17) compared to 1984 (54).
o The number of industries projected to grow between 5 percent and
10 percent will be slightly'less in 1985 (52) compared to 1984 (67).
o The number of industries projected to grow between 0 and 5 percent
will be significantly higher in 1985 (112) compared to 1984 (65).
These changes can be attributed to the slower growth in projected GNP coupled
with the fact that the recovery has proceeded to the point where most.
industries are moving in tandem with the economy as a whole.
The 209 manufacturing sectors covered in the Outlook (Appendix Table 1) are
aggregated to the 2-digit SIC code level, and the corresponding data are shown
in Table 4. A comparison of the growth rates again shows the following:
o All sectors will experience a moderating rate of growth except for
primary metals. Most of the growth in primary metals represents a
turnaround from an extremely depressed base rather than a fundamental
change in their prospects.
o Consumer durables, construction materials and motor vehicles are
following the moderating growth typical in the advanced stages of a
recovery. Pent-up demand resulting during the recession of 1981-82
has been satisfied by the recent robust recovery and sales should
moderate accordingly.
o Continued strong growth in SIC's 36 and 35 is due to the strong
demand for computers and. related equipment and the incorporation of
semiconductors and related components into all manufactured products.
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*Excludes SIC 3674 which uses a new price deflator which distorts the
aggregated figures.
Growth Rates of Covered Manufacturing Industries
by Two-Digit SIC Codes
Rank
Industry
Annual Growth Rates
Compound Annual
Growth Rate
1985/1984
(Projected)
1984/1983
(estimated)
1972-1982
(Actual)
35
Machinery except electrical
11.2
13.5
5.4
33
Primary metal industries
8.9
2.1
-4.3
37
Transportation equipment
8.1
11.5
-0.7
36
Electrical and electronic*
machinery, equip. supplies
6.8
9.7
4.0
38
Measuring, analyzing and
controlling instruments;
photographic, medical and
optical goods
6.0
10.6
6.7
34
Fabricated metal products
5.3
10.4
-0.6
28
Chemicals & allied products
4.3
7.7
1.6
39.
Misc. manufacturing indus.
4.3
4.2
0.7
26
Paper & allied products
4.1
6.2
1.6
27
Printing, publishing &
allied industries
4.0
5.4
2.6
32
Stone, clay, glass &
concrete products
3.1
10.3
-2.0
30
Rubber & misc. plastic pdts.
2.5
6.3
1.7
20
Food & kindred products
0.8
1.6
1.6
31
Leather and leather products
0.7
-1.2
-1.3
21
Tobacco manufacturers
-0.6
1.5
0.1
29
Petroleum refining &
related industries
-0.9
2.5
1.4
23
Apparel
-4.0
-22.8
-5.6-
24
Lumber and wood products
-5.2
9.1
0.0
Gross National Product
4.3
7.3
2.3
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Manufacturing Growth Leaders
Table 5 shows the top 20 manufacturing industries ranked with respect to
Outlook growth rates projected for 1985. For comparison purposes, estimated
1984 growth rankings and actual 1972-82 growth rankings are also provided.
Only three of the top 10 growth performers for 1985 show up in the top 10
performers for 1972-82; four in the top 20. Similarly, only four of the top
20 performers in 1985 show up in the top 20 in 1984. Those sectors with some
degree of carryover include semiconductors and related devices* (Ranked '1 in
1985), electronic computing equipment* (Ranked 5 in 1985), X-ray apparatus and
tubes (Ranked 7 in 1985), instruments to measure electricity (Ranked 14 in
1985), and prefabricated metal buildings (Ranked 16 in 1985). The
preponderance of electronics-based industries is striking.
*All calculations used in Appendix Table 1 are generally based on industry
shipments expressed in 1972 dollars. The percent change figures provide a
measure of changes in the volume of industry shipments and allow interindustry
comparisons without the distorting influence of price changes.
The industry shipment value for SIC 3573, Electronic Computing Equipment-is
reported in current dollars. Current dollars are used due to the lack of a
reliable deflator to use construct 1972 dollar estimates.
The industry shipment value for SIC 3674, Semiconductors and Related. Devices,
is deceptive. Unlike the other covered industries, the constant dollar value
(119, 530 million 1972 dollars) for SIC 3674 exceeds the current dollar value
(23, 906 million current dollars). The reason for this is that the rate of
technical improvements and price declines in products has greatly outstripped
inflationary pressures.
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Table 5
Manufacturing Growth Leaders: 1985 Outlook
Rank
Projected
Estimated
Actual
1985
Growth
Growth
Rank
Growth
Rank
Growth
SIC
Title
84-85
83-84
83-84
72-82
72-82
1
3674
Semiconductors & Related Devices
37.4
44.2
2
34.1
1
2
3332
Primary Lead
28.0
-27.0
209
-3.8
. 190
3
3721
Aircraft
21.1
-6.6
203
2.8
61
4
3764
Space Propulsion Units & Parts
18.0
9.6
60
1.4
86
5
3573
Electronic Computing Equipment
17.0
20.5
6
19.2
2
6
3334
Primary Aluminum
15.6
-17.0
207
-2.2
173
7
3693
X-ray Apparatus & Tubes
15.4
15.4
18
15.4
4
8
3761
Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles
14.7
12.6
32
0.2
114
9
332
Iron & Steel Foundries
13.6
12.8
30
-4.3
194
10
3714
Motor Vehicles Parts & Accessories 12.3
16.1
17
-4.0
193
11
3769
Space Vehicle Equipment, nec.
11.7
10.8
46
-0.8
141
12
336
Nonferrous Foundries
10.8
5.0
121
-2.1
170
13
2819
Industrial Inorganic Chemicals,nec 10.0
10.7
47
'0.1
123
14
3825
Instruments to Measure Electricity 10.0
19.1
9
8.4
13
15
3331
Primary Copper
10.0
-2.4
197
-2.3
175
16
3448
Prefabricated Metal Buildings
10.0
18.4
10
4.2
33
17
3451
Screw Machine Products
10.0
11.6
42
-0.1
138
18
3544
Special Dies, Tools, & Jigs
9.6
16.3
15
-0.9
147
19
2812
Alkalies & Chlorine
9.6
1.9
168
-5.4
201
20
3623
Electric Welding Apparatus
9.4
7.8
77
-1.0
153
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Three of the top 10 and five of the top 20 1985 industries are from the metal
area: primary lead, primarily aluminum, iron and steel foundries, non-ferrous
foundries, and'primary copper. Although these industries are projected to
grow 10 percent or greater in 1985, they are distinguished in the table by
their very low rankings for either or both 1984 estimated growth and 1972-1982
actual growth. They essentially represent turnaround industries from previous
years when they were among the worst growth performers..
Three of the top 10 and four of the top 20 industries are from aerospace
area: aircraft, space propulsion and parts, guided missiles and space.
vehicles, and space vehicle equipment not elsewhere classified. Aircraft is
coming off of a particularly bad year in 1984 while the space-related
industries have been growing more steadily. Growth in aerospace industries is
largely due to anticipated government expeditures for national defense.
We have selected seven industries, shown below in Table 6, as "growth leaders"
on the basis of their past and future long term performance. Each of these
industries has had growth rates significantly exceeding the growth in GNP
during the 1972-1982 period, and is projected.to have good growth to 1989.
Other growth.leaders can be found in the complete U.S. Industrial Outlook.
Table 6
Annual
Growth Rates
- Percent
Manufacturing Growth Leaders
Annual
Projected
. Forecast
Growth
Growth
Growth
72-82
85-84
89-85
SIC
Industry
3674
Semiconductors and Related Devices
34.1
37.4
25.0
3573
Electronic Computing Equipment
19.2
17.0
17.0
3693
X-ray Apparatus and Tubes
15.4
15.4
15.4
3678
Electronic Connectors
10.6
5.9
8.0
2795
Lithographic Platemaking Services
9.8
3.8
4.5
3679
Electronic Components nec.
8.8
6.9
6.5
3662
Radio and TV Communication Equipment
8.0
9.1
8.0
Semiconductors and related devices lead the list with a 37.4 percent projected
growth for 1985 and a 15 percent annual rate of growth forecast to 1989.
Electronic computing equipment is next with a 17.0 percent projected growth
and a annual rate of growth of 17.0 percent to 1989. X-ray Apparatus and
Electromedical. Equipment benefitting from the introduction of new diagnostic
equipment such as magnetic resonance scanners is projected to grow 15.4
percent next year and to continue that growth to 1989. Electronic connectors
which is projected to be down to 5.9 percent growth in 1985 from an average of
10.6 percent during 1972-1982 is anticipated to move up to 8.0 percent growth
in 1986 and continue through 1989. Lithographic platemaking services are
expected to grow at 3.8 percent in 1985 and move up to the 4 to 5 percent
range through 1989. Electronic components are projected to grow at 6.9
percent in 1985 and ease slightly to 6.5 percent through 1989. Radio and TV
communications equipment is projected to grow at 9.1 percent in 1985 and
return to its past long term growth rate of 8.0 percent to 1989.
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Semiconductors and Related Devices
Real value of shipments for semiconductors and related devices will increase
37.5 percent in 1985 with shipments approaching 24 billion in current
dollars. This is down slightly from its 44.2 percent increase in 1984. Rapid
technological progress resulting in increased capability and decreasing prices
has lead to applications in all areas, particularly telecommunications,
robotics, instrumentation and consumer products. Trade in this area is very
intensive with imports projected to reach 9.5 billion and exports 6.5 billion
in current dollars in 1985. While the United States has maintained its edge
in microprocessors the Japanese have been successful in dynamic random access
memory, overtaking the Americans in 64K and assuming an early lead in 264K.
Trade imbalance with Japan in 1984 is estimated at 1.5 billion dollars
accounting for almost two thirds of the worldwide U.S. trade deficit. Rapid
innovation has not only resulted in a base of standardized products but also
given rise to new businesses providing custom and semicustom circuits. The
relative importance of U.S. offshore production declined for the. first time in
1984 with the investment in state-of-the-art automated facilities in the
United States. Growth is projected at 25 percent in real terms to 1989.
Intense Government and industry research both in the U.S. and abroad will make
this a very competitive area.
Electronic Connectors
Real value of shipments will increase 6 percent reaching over 3.4 billion
current dollars in 1985. A positive balance of trade of 123 million dollars
is projected for 1985. Demand for computers, communications and defense
electronics should provide an 8 percent annual. growth rate through 1989.
Electronic Components
Real value of shipments in 1985 of this broad category of products ranging
from printed circuit boards to bubble memories is projected to grow by 6.0
percent exceeding 20 billion in current dollars. Imports are projected to
exceed exports by $558 million in 1985, up from $525 million in 1984.
Emerging segments such as bubble memories are projected to grow at a more
rapid rate than the other segments. While not equaling its previous growth
rate, this segment is projected to grow at 6.5 percent through 1989.
X-Ray and Electromedical Equipment
Shipments by the x-ray and electromedical equipment industry are projected to
increase at the same 15.4 percent rate in 1985 to over 7- billion in current
dollars and are expected to continue at this rate to 1989. Electromedical
products are accounting for an increasing share of shipments at the expense of
x-ray equipment. This industry exports about 19 percent of shipments and
exports and imports are projected to be in-balance for 1985. While hospital
cost-containment regulations may put pressure on this industry, demand for
health care services and equipment is expected to increase as a result of an
aging population and medical advances. Technological innovation is expected
to produce newer and more cost effective products resulting in product
obsolescence as in the replacement of the CAT scanners by magnetic resonance
imaging devices.
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Electronic Computing Equipment
Shipments of the U.S. computer. industry are projected to increase by 17
.percent in 1985 to about 62 billion dollars. While exports are expected to
increase by 30 percent, the value of imports is projected to increase almost
three times as much,.reducing the trade balance from 5.4 billion dollars in
1984 to 2.1 billion in 1985. .Continued acceleration of imports at this rate
could put the U.S. trade surplus into a deficit by 1986. Long term prospects
while favorable will be impacted by the evolution to high volume standardized
products resulting in requirements for cost reduction. Widespread efforts of
'foreign government to assist in the development of local computer industries
through such policies as market-reserves will have an increasing impact on
U.S. exports.
Radio and TV Communication Equipment
Industry shipments are projected to grow about 9 percent in 1985, up from 7.5
percent in 1984. Over 45 percent of the industry's shipments are purchased by
the Department of Defense which spent 17 billion dollars on the products of
this industry. International trade is not a major factor and the U.S. enjoyed
a trade surplus of 400 million dollars in 1984. Continued growth in demand
for high technology. electronic equipment by the Armed Forces should provide
favorable long term prospects for an 8.0 percent compound annual growth rate
to 1989. Fiber optics communications systems should grow rapidly in response
to growing market demand, particularly in the telephone industry.
Lithographic Platemaking Services
This industry which primarily makes lithographic (offset) printing plates has
exceeded the growth rates of all other industry groups within the printing,
publishing and allied industries since 1972 when Census data was first
collected. Value of shipments for 1985 are projected to increase by 3.8
percent down from 6.1 percent in 1984. Long term growth to 1989 is projected
at a 4.0 to 5.0 percent compound annual rate.
Manufacturing Problem Industries
Table 7 on the following page shows the 20 manufacturing industries with the
lowest growth rates projected in the Outlook for 1985 -- those industries in
ranks 190-209 from Appendix Table 1.
There is a_ great deal of correspondence between the lowest 20 industries
projected for 1985 and their 1972-82 actual growth rates, indicating that many
of these industries have been declining for some time. Seven of the lowest 20
1985 industries are in the lowest 20 for 1972-1982; 9 additional industries
are in the lower half for 1972-1982. The principal exceptions are logging
camps and log contractors and ship building and repairing which performed
fairly well from 1972-1982.
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There is a great deal of correspondence of the 1985 rankings with the 1984
rankings, the principal exceptions being industries in which.growth occurred
in 1984 after ten years of decline from 1972-1982 -- primary zinc, softwood
veneer and plywood, and sawmills and planing mills. The environmental
controls industry is something of an anomoly.
Most of the problem manufacturing industries are natural resource- or
agriculturally-based. The electron tube 'industry stands out as an example of
one, electronics technology being replaced by another.
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Problem Manufacturing Industries, 1985 Outlook
Rank
Projected
Estimated
Actual
1985
Growth
Growth
Rank
Growth
Rank
Growth
SIC
Title
84-85
83-84
83-84
72-82
72-82
190
3275
Gypsum Products
-1.7
5.7
106
-1.1
155
191
2111
Cigarettes
-1.8
-0.2
187
1.2
92
192
2121
Cigars
-1.8
-1.9
196
-7.5
207
193
2431
Millwork
-2.0
3.2
147
-3.0
184
194
3822
Environmental Controls
-2.0
15.3
19
1.6
80
195
2011
Meatpacking Plants
-2.4
0.1
185
0.3
112
196
3263
Fine Earthenware Food Utensils
-2.9
-5.6
200
-6.3
204
197
2411
Logging Camps & Log Contractors
-3.0
3.6
142
5.3
25
197
2646
Pressed and Molded Pulp Goods
-3.0
-1*.4
194
-4.8
199
199
2023
Condensed & Evaporated Milk
-3.4
2.6
157
0.7
102
200
3671
Electron Tubes
-3.6
2.1
164
?-0.8
142
201
2085
Distilled Liquor, Except Brandy
-3.9
0.4
182
-0.2
130
202
2426
Hardwood Dimension & Flooring
-4.0
5.0
119
-3.2
185
203
3731
Ship Building .& Repairing
-4.0
-3.3
198
3.6
43
204
2386
Leather & Sheep Lined Clothing
-4.0
-22.8
208
-5.6
202
204 ?
2661
Building Paper & Board Mills
-4.0
-0.3
190
-9.5
209
206
3333
Primary Zinc
-4.9
14.7
20
-8.7
208
207
2436
Softwood Veneer & Plywood
-7.4
11.3
44
-1.0
151
208
2421.
Sawmills F& Planing Mills-General
-10.4
17.1
13
-1.9
166
209
3511
Turbines & Turbine Generator Sets
-21.9
0.8
177
-4.4
197
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We have selected 5 manufacturing industries show below in Table 8 as problem
manufacturing sectors based on their longterm decline and negative future
prospects.
Table 8
Problem Industries: .1985 Outlook
SIC
Industry
72-81
84-84
1985-Peak Year
2652
Setup Paperboard Boxes
-6.7
-0.0
-48.3
(72)
3251
Brick & Structured Clay Tile
-6.5 ,
-1.5
-27.9
(72)
2646
Pressed & Molded Pulp Goods.
-4.8 '
-3.0
-40.4
(72)
3511
Turbines & Turbine Generator Sets
-4.4
-21.9
-46.7
(73)
3021
Rubber & Plastic Footwear
-3.6
-1.1
-31.7
(72)
Turbines and Turbine Generator Sets
Shipments of turbines and turbine-generator sets is projected to decrease 21.9
percent in 1985. This industry's value of shipments has decreased 46.7
percent from the peak year of 1973. No significant upturn is anticipated
until late 1980's or early 1990's. The decision of electric utilities whether
to replace or rebuild aging equipment will have a significant impact on-this
industry.
Pressed and Molded Pulp Goods
The compound annual rate of decline for this industry was 3.7 percent from
1972-1984 and is expected to decline by about 3.0 percent in 1985. The
average annual rate of decline is projected between 2 and 3 percent to 1989.
New technology to adapt pulp trays for use in microwave and conventional ovens
could counter this projected decline.
Set-up Paperboard Boxes
This industry declined at a compound annual rate of 6.7 percent from 1972-1982
and declined about 1.5 percent in 1984. Real shipments for 1985 are forecast
to remain at about the same level as last year. During the 1985-1989 period
the real value of shipments is expected to increase at 1.0 percent annually.
Competition from other packing. sectors, particularly plastics, will constrain
growth during the eighties but the industry is expected to maintain its share
for high value specialty packaging.
Brick and Structural Clay Tile
After declining during the 1972-1982 period at compound annual rate of 6.5
percent, the value of shipments by the industry rose about 30 percent in 1983
and 10 percent in 1984 to 1.05 billion dollars, still well below the cyclical
peaks of the 1970's. Growth next year is projected to remain flat and the
industry is expected to experience slow long-term growth at best.. While brick
and tile are popular cladding material in residential construction. More cost
effective materials have eroded its market share and no significant rebound is
projected.
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Rubber and Plastics Footwear
After declining at a 3.6 compound annual rate from 1972-1982, the value of
shipments rose by 0.8 percent in real terms to 706 million dollars in 1983.
In 1984 the decline continued with a 1.1 percent decrease in the value of
shipments and the same decline is projected for 1984. Imports', which were 30
percent in 1970, are estimated to have accounted for two-thirds of U.S.
consumption in 1984. Long-term growth rates are expected to depend on the
size of the population and thus should grow slowly over time. Foreign
competition will continue strong with shifts in country of origin as occurred
in the change from Japan to South Korea and Taiwan during the 1970s.
Key Manufacturing Industries
There are a number of ways to identify industries that are "key" to U.S.
national economic and international trade performance. Three clusters of
industries -- consumer durables, motor vehicles, and construction -- are of
particular importance. Because these three cyclically sensitive groups
influence demand in so many other industries, changes in their growth have a
large effect on the general economy. As shown in Appendix Table 1, most of
these industries have rebounded sharply from the 1981-82 recession and are
expected to have growth rates in 1985 that will exceed their long-term rates.
Nevertheless, 1985 growth rates will not match the high-growth performances of
1984.
Consumer Durables
Consumers tend to postpone durable goods purchases when their disposable
incomes are uncertain or declining. Sales rebound strongly with recovery,
however, at least until pent-up new and replacement demands are satisfied.
For example, all the consumer durables industries shown below in Table 9 will
have shipments growth rates in 1985 that are below those in 1984, when backlog
demands were still being met. Nevertheless, shipments growth rates in 1985
are expected to exceed long-term rates. Shipment levels should far surpass
the 1982 low-demand levels. Moderating growth in these industries eventually
will affect demand for aluminum and steel, paints and allied products,
electronics, and a multitude of other industries.
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Table 9
Consumer Durables: 1985 Outlook
Industry
SIC Code
1985. Shipments
(millions of
1972 dollars)
Growth Rates
1985/84 long-term
% above 1982
shipments level
Wood furniture
2511
3,066
-5.7 5.6
25.2
Upholstered _furn.
2512
2,584
-5.9 4.6
30.7
Metal furniture
2514
999
-5.1 3.7
22.7
Mattresses/bdsprngs
2515
1,271
-1.8 3.1
21.7
Lawn & garden
3524
1,319
-8.0 3.4
16.5
Cooking equipment
3631
1,835
-6.9 2.8
41.7
Refrig. & freezers
3632
1,760
-8.9 6.5
37.9
Laundry equipment.
3633
1,493
-7.3 5.1
36.6
Elec. Housewares'
3634
1,967
-2.4 1.5
5.4
Vacuum clearners
3635
577
-4.3 3.6
18.4
Sewing machines
3636
156
-4.7 6.1
21.4
Other appliances
3639
1,066
-10.1 1.7
37.5
Radio & TV sets
3651
8,173
-7.2 1.6
31.2
Motorcycles, etc.
3751
682
-4.5 5.5
25..5
Photo equipment
3861
10,800
-0.8 0.8
13.7
Sporting goods
3949
2,313
-3.0 2.9
20.4
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Motor Vehicles
The automobile industry is expected to show similar patterns in 1985 as
compared with 1984 and long-term growth rates should show substantial
improvement from 1982 levels (see Table 10 below). Consumers who had
postponed car purchases during the 1981-82 period entered the market strongly
in 1983-84, but the 1985 forecast reflects some satisfaction of this pent-up
demand. Most of the automobile satellite industries will reflect this trend.
A few of these are listed below,but many others--plastics, glass, and metals,
to name a few--will also be affected by the slowdown. in auto sales.
Motor. Vehicles: 1985 Outlook
Industry
SIC Code,
1985 Shipments
(millions 1972 $)
% above 1982
shipments
Motor vehicles
3711
61,400
67.2
Parts & accessories
3714
19,194
56.7
Truck & bus bodies
3713/16
1,860
21.4
Truck trailers
1,259
62.4
Auto stampings
3465
7,554
86.5
Tires & innertubes
3011
4,925
23.8
Hose & belting
3041
1,050
21.8
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Construction
The slackening rate of new housing starts expected in 1985 will have a large
effect on many directly related industries, as well as on those, such as
consumer household durables, that are indirectly related to new housing (see
Table 11). For construction in general, however, nonresidential construction
will take up some of the slack. Many of the industries particularly involved.
in nonresidential construction--for. example, cement and concrete products and
construction machinery--will better their long-term growth rates, even though
these rates are still well below last year's. Most of the wood-related
industries will not match their long-term growth rates, however, and some will
have shipments levels only slightly higher than in 1982.
Table 11
Construction: 1985 Outlook
Industry
SIC #
1985 Shipments
(1972 $)
% above 1982
shipments
Logging
2411
4,462
4.8
Sawmills
2421
5,770
7.5
Flooring
2426
464
10.9
Millwork
2431
2,571
43.9
Hardwood plywood
2435
906
19.4
Softwood plywood
2436
2,400
31.7
Struct. wood
2439
467
1.5
Wood, preserved
2491
305
20.0
Particleboard
2492
3,066
17.5
Hyd. Cement.
3241
1,775
28.8
Brick
3251
370
40.9
Concrete B & B
3271
.745
28.5
Other concrete pr.
3272
1,985
30.2
Ready-mix concrete
3273
4,435
30.5
Gypsum products .
3275
760
33.1
Struct. metal
3441
3,930
9.7
Prefab buildings
3448
1,224
33.6
Construction machinery
3531
4,260
-2.9
Power-driven tools
3546
1,155
22.0
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Balance of trade (surpluses/deficits) and total trade (exports plus imports)
are two measures for indicating key U.S. industries in terms of international
trade. Table 12 below lists 20 selected industries whose 1985 exports are
projectd in the Outlook to be at least twice the value of their, imports,
ranked in order of their 1985 trade surplus. Also shown is the estimated 1984
trade surplus and the increase or decrease of the surplus from 1984 to 1985.
Comparing Table 12 with Table 5, only two of the trade surplus industries are
included in the top 20 projected growth leaders in 1985 -- aircraft and space
vehicle equipment not elsewhere classified. Almost all of the surplus
industries do rank in the upper half of Appendix Table 1, however. The
surplus industries are dominated by aerospace,?chemical, and instrumentation.
Aircraft stands out with a surplus projected to increase over 150 percent, as
well as in absolute terms with a projected 1985 surplus of over $7 billion.
Although they show sizable projected trade surpluses in 1985, three industries
on the list -- plastic materials and resins, internal combustion engines not
elsewhere classified, and refrigeration and heating equipment -- show
surpluses declining from 1984.
Selected Trade Surplus Industries for 1985
(Millions of Dollars)
SIC
Industry
Exports
Imports
Surplus
Balance of
Trade
Inc./(Dec.)
1985 (projected)
1985 1984 1985 - 1984
(projected) (projected)
3721
Aircraft
8,105
1,777
7,028 4,606
2,422
3728
Aircraft Equipment nec.
5,450
1,800
3,640 3,119
521
2869
Industrial Organic Chemicals nec.
5,250
1,900
3,350 3,200
150
3533
Oilfield Machinery
3,200
36
3,164 2,823
341
3724
Aircraft Equipment & Parts
3,335
1,410
1,925 1,679
246
2821
Plastic Materials & Resins
2,560
895
1,665 1,786
(121)
3519
Internal Combustion Engine nec.
2,060
396
1,664 1,586
(78)
3531
Construction Machinery
2,950
1,350
1,660 1,550
50
2631
Paperboard Mills
1,380
55
1,325 1,091
234
2874
Phosphatic fertilizer
1,250
54
1,196 1,145
51
3465
Automotive Stampings
1,430
270
1,160 1,090
70
2879
Agricultural Chemicals
1,415
322
1,093 1,055
38
3585
Refrigeration & Heating Equipment
1,680
800
880 904
(24)
3769
Space Vehicle Equipment nec.
840
0
840 645
195
3829
Measuring & Controlling Devices
654
71
583 531
52
2899
Chemical Preparations nec.
970
400
570 518
52
3561
Pumps &'Pumping Equipment
975
415
565 530
35
3811
Engineering & Scientific Inst.
941
386
555 546
9
3823
Process Control Inst.
753
313
440 390
50
3842
Surgical Appliances & Supplies
472
137
335 314
21
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Table 13 similarly lists the projected trade deficit industries where imports
are anticipated to be at least twice the value of exports. None of these
deficit industries appear in Table 7 which shows the 20 industries with the
lowest projected growth rates in 1985. On the contrary, most of these
industries rank in the upper half of Appendix Table V. :Primary aluminum. and
primary copper, in fact, are in the top 20 projected growth leaders, although
their presence is a result of a temporary turnaround rather than longer term
trends. Most of these industries are projected to experience increasing trade
deficits from 1984 to 1985, with the exception of Radio and TV Receiving Sets
for which the deficit is projected to decline. substantially.
Table 13
Selected Trade Deficit Industries for 1985
(millions of dollars)
l
f
Imports Exports
Trade
Deficit
Ba
ance o
Trade
Inc./(Dec.)
SIC
Industry
1985 (projected)
1985
1984
1985-1984
(projected)
(projected)
3711
Motor Vehicles & Car Bodies
23,400 1,800
-21,600
-19,700
(1,900)
331A
Steel Mill Products
10,269 997-
-9,273
-7,812
(1,461)
3651
Radio & TV Receiving Sets
8,000 680
-7,320
-8,370
1,050
2621
Papermill Except Bldg. Paper
4,400 715
-3,685
-3,555
(130)
3579
Office Machines & Typewriters
2,600 560
-2,040
-1,337
(703)
3661
Telephone & Telegraph Appar.
2,505 800
-1,705
-945
(760)
3011
Tire & Inner Tubes
1,900 425
-1,475
-1,475
0
363
Household Appliances
2,500 1,135
-1,365
-1,100
(265)
3751
Motorcycles, Bicycles & Parts
1,459 118
-1,341
-1,192
(149)
3334
Primary Aluminum
1,575 400
-1,175
-1,150
(25)
3911
Jewelry & Precious Metals
1,250 155
-1,095
-981
(114)
3949
Sporting & Electric Goods nec.
1,346 311
-1,035
-795
(240)
3541
Metal Cutting Machines Tools
1,400 450
-950
-750
(200)
3564
Blowers & Fans
938 155
-783
-666
(117)
3452
Bolts,Nuts,Rivets, Washers
996 236
-730
-580
(150)
3331
Primary Copper
790 85
-705
-504
(201)
3552
Textile Machinery
900 270
-630
-605
(25)
2649
Converted Paper Products
742 286
-456
-342
(114)
3574
Calculating & Accounting
Machines
635 245
-390
-342
(48)
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Table 14 on the following page shows the top 20 U.S. industries ranked in
terms of total trade -- exports and imports -- for 1984 (through October).
Four of these industries are projected to be among the 1985 growth leaders --
semiconductors, aircraft, electronic computing equipment, and motor vehicle
parts; none are projected to be among the lowest growth industries. Nine of
these 20 industries are in the top 50 deficit industries, while seven are in
the top 50 surplus industries.
U.S. Industries Ranked in Terms of Total Trade
SIC
Exports + Imports*
In Top 50 In Top 50
Code
Description
($000)
YTD '83
YTD''84
Surplus Deficit
Industries Industries
3711
Motor vehicles & passenger c
29,026
37,685
2911
Petroleum refinery products
18,791
21,534
3714
Parts of motor vehicles
11,445
15,690
3573
Electronic comput. equipment
10,518
14,384
x
3674
Semiconductors
6,937
10,082
3312
Steel products
5,773
9,093
3651
Radio & TV receiving sets
5,574
8,286
-3339
Smelter & refined nonferrous
6,364
6,800
3662
Radio & TV communication equip.
4,779
5,805
2869
Industrial organic chemicals
4,839
5,766
x
3621
Aircraft
7,001
5,409
x
3728
Aircraft & spacecraft parts
4,678
5,374
x
2819
Industrial inorganic chemicals
3,957
4,668
x
3531
Construction machinery & equip.
3,569
4,517
x
3861
Photographic equip. & supplies
3,831
4,428
2621
Paper mill products
3,289
4,367
3569
Industrial machinery & equip.
3,144
4,311
x
3679
Electronic components
2,986
4,198
3579
Office machines and parts
2,306
4,079
* Imports for consumption -- customs value; Domestic exports, f.a.s.
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-25-
Service Sector Projections
Services-producing industries currently account for over two-thirds of GNP and
have been increasing this percentage for many years. The strength of the
service sector since 1972 has been evidenced by several factors: _
o a~rapid growth of intermediate. business services;
o an upward pressure on prices of services;
o a rapid increase in service sector employment;.
o a further shift in the source of. personal income from goods-producing
industries to services-producing industries; and
o an increasing importance of services in U.S. international trade.
These trends are expected to continue into the 1990s with some industries
doing better than others and with most dependent upon a strong economy.
Coverage of the services sector has been significantly Increased in the 1985
U.S. Industrial Outlook over the 1984 publication with an increase of over 28
percent in the number of pages (99 in 1985 -- up from 77 in 1984).
This includes expanded coverage of information services, insurance, management
consulting, operations and maintenance, and ocean shipping. Capsule comments
on the 18 service categories included in the 1985 U.S. Industrial Outlook
follow.
Information Services -- This sector includes data processing services,
electronic data bases, videotex and teletex, and R&D services. The largest
increases are expected in data processing (10 to 18 percent increase for 1985
over 1984) with long-term growth trends expected near their historic highs.
Electronic data bases are expected to grow about 23.1 percent in 1985 over
1984, with average annual growth through 1989 of about 23 percent. This is
the fastest growing segment of information services because of its small base
and its continued growth depends on the increasing acceptance of personal
computers. Videotex and teletext services are expected to grow about 10
percent in 1985 from 1984 and at 10 percent or less annually for the next
several years. R&D service growth should be about 6 percent in 1985 over
1984.
Transportation Services -- Long-term prospects for airlines are optimistic
with an average annual growth rate of 4 to 5 percent for the next decade. In
trucking, an 8 percent increase in ton-miles is expected in 1985 over 1984,
which was 7.1 percent over 1983. The long-term prospects are favorable,
dependent on the overall economy. Railroad traffic and revenues are expected
to increase 3 percent and 10 percent, respectively, in 1985 over 1984.
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Long-term prospects for railroads are optimistic with an average annual growth
rate of 2.8 percent through 1989, dependent on a strong economy. In ocean
shipping, liner operations in the domestic deep sea trade are at relatively
good levels keeping pace with growth in the U.S. economy. The domestic tanker
industry is in a considerably stronger position than the foreign trade tanker
sector. Prospects are closely tied to domestic production-and-consumption of
petroleum. No significant changes are expected in this market.
Wholesale Trade -- Merchant wholesaling is expected to post an average gain of
10 percent for 1985 with durable goods.up 12 percent and nondurable goods up 8
percent. Average annual gains of 9 percent are forecast through 1989.
Retail Trade -- Overall retail sales are estimated to have increased by 10.5
percent in 1984 from 1983. An increase of .9.5 percent is forecast for 1985
with durable goods comprising 31.5 percent and nondurable goods comprising.
68.5 percent of all retail trade.
Advertising -- This industry is expected to continue to grow faster than the
economy as a whole with an average annual growth rate of 10 percent through
1989.
Hotels and. Motels -- An increase in gross receipts of 10 percent is expected
in 1985 with favorable long-term prospects.
Travel Services -- An increase in expenditures in 1985 over 1984 are expected
to be 10:1 percent. An average annual growth rate of 4 percent is expected
through 1989.
Motion Pictures -- Box office receipts are expected to rise 6 percent in 1985
over 1984 and to average an annual increase of 7 percent.through 1989.
Commercial Banking -- U.S. commercial banks have successfully satisfied rising
credit demands as economic growth remains strong. The banking system appears
strong enough to absorb any foreseeable shocks. Asset growth of 9 percent and
loan increases of 11 percent are expected in 1985 over 1984.
Savings Institutions -- Assets are expected to increase by 10 percent,
mortgages held are expected to increase by 10 percent, and mortgages made are
expected to decline by 10 percent in 1985 over 1984.
Insurance -- Life insurance purchases are forecast to increase by 11.5 percent
and premiums are expected to increase by 8 percent in 1985. In the long-term,
large insurers are expected to increase their market share from 48 percent to
50 percent by 1990 as small insurers'are driven out.
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Equipment Leasing - This industry is expected to increase by 5 percent in
1985 over-1984. The long-term performance depends on a continued economic
expansion. The international market will become more of a factor in the next
few years.
Health and Medical Services -- Health care expenditures are expected to rise
by 10 percent in 1985 with an average annual increase of 9 to 10 percent
through 1990. Health maintenance organizations, other prepaid plans, home
health care services, and freestanding emergency centers will continue to grow
in enrollment and expenditures, causing hospitals to market themselves more
aggressively in order to stay competitive.
Franchising -- In 1985, new entrants are expected to outnumber dropouts by 5
percent. Through 1990, the greatest gains are expected in business format
franchising with 13 percent average, annual increases.
Educational Services -- Educational expenditures are expected to increase by 6
percent in 1985 over 1984. The present downward trend in enrollment is
expected to be reversed by 1986 and then continue to increase through 1992.
.Management, Consulting, and Public Relations Services -- This industry sector
is forecast to increase 13 percent in 1985 over 1984 as a. result of general
economic expansion. The long-term prospects are very favorable, but are
dependent on overall growth of the economy and on the pace of institutional
and structural change in the way goods and services are produced.
Operations and Maintenance Services - An increase is expected in 1985 over
1984 with the long-term outlook quite favorable.
Architectural and Engineering Services -- Receipts are forecast to increase by
5.3 percent in 1985 and at an average annual rate of about 5 percent through
1989.
As is evident, all overall categories are forecast to increase both in 1985
and through the ?1989-1990 period. This, of course, does not mean that there
will not be industry segments within these overall categories that will suffer
declines during this period. But in general, services-producing industries
are expected to continue to grow over the next five years.
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Table 15
Service Sector Performance
As has been an evident pattern for several years, the services industries
have continued their steady climb in attaining an increasing share of the
toal GNP as can be seen below.
Percentage Distribution of GNP*
1972
1977
1982
1983
Goods-Producing
Industries
34.3%
32.9%
30.5%
30.3%
Service-Producing
Industries
64.6%
65.4%
68.6%
68.3%
Source: U.S. Department of.Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
The totals do not add to 100 percent because of rounding and the
absence of statistical discrepancy and residual percentages.
And although there was a slight decline in the percentages for both
goods-producing and service-producing industries as a percentage of GNP
from 1982 to 1983, the rate of the decline of the service-producing
industries was less than that of the goods-producing industries.
While the size and significance of the broad industry categories that
comprise the service-producing industries (transportation,
communications, and utilities; wholesale and retail trade; finance,
insurance, and real estate; services; and government) can be measured by
their contribution to National Income, such data are not available at the
individual industry level. Employment data are generally the best
available indicators of growth or decline in these industries,
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-29-
When considering the whole economy, the following table indicates the steadily
increasing percentage of total employment provided by the, service-producing
industries from 1960 to 1983.
Table 16
.Services Industries Percent of Total Employment
Services
Employment
Percent
Change
1960
62.29%
1965
63.92
4.41
1970
66.74
4.41
1975
70.63
5.83
1976
70.58
-.07
1977
70.48
.14
1978
70.49
.01
1979
71.54
1.53
1980
71.62
1.53
1981
72.03
.57
1982
73.41
1.92
1983
74.05
.87
Source: U.S.'Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor.Statistics
This broad pattern of employment increases in the service-producing industries
is further confirmed by a more detailed look at 238 industry groups identified
at the-3-digit SIC level, using seasonally unadjusted data for May 1981 to May
1984. Of the 20 industry groups with the largest contributions to employment
gains between May 1981 and May 1984, 17 are service-producing. These three
goods-producing groups that ranked among the top 20 employment gainers were
the electronic components and accessories group, the miscellaneous plastics
products group, and the communication equipment industry group. These top 20
industry groups are identified in Table 17.
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Table 17
Service Industry Groups with Largest Employment Gains
.(May 1981 to may 1984)
Employment
May 81 May 84
Employment
Change
% of Total
Employment
Industry
(thousands) (thousands)
Change
Eating and drinking
places
4,847.1
5,292.0
444.6
18.3%
Personnel supply services
605.8
821.7
215.9
8.9
Grocery stores
2,133.7
2,298.3
164.6
6.8
Computer & data
processing services
326.4
462.3
135.9
5.6
Hotels, motels, &
tourist courts
1,089.4
1,218.5
129.1
5.3
Private hospitals
2,871.1
2,997.7
126-.6
5.2
Electronic components
& accessories
554.4
680.2
125.8
5.2
Nursing & personal
care facilities
1,021.1
1,144.8
123.6
5.1.
Offices of physicians
779.2
898.8
119.6
4.9
Legal services
521.5
631.3
109.8
4.5
Services to buildings
516.5
602.6
86.1
3.5
Offices of dentists
356.8
429.2
72.4
3.0
Security brokers & dealers
208.3
277.9
69.6
2.9
Misc. plastic products
481.4
544.6
63.2
2.6
New & used car dealers
751.7
812.1
60.4
2.5
Amusement and recreation
services
816.6
876.7
60.1
2.5
Automotive repair shops
352.0
408.7
56.7
2.3
Communication equipment
552.1
605.4?
53.3
2.2
Misc. shopping goods stores
595.0
647.0
52.0
2.1
Accounting, auditing &
bookeeping
327.4
378.5
51.1
2.1
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Establishment
Survey data.
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At the other end of the spectrum, of the 20 industry groups with the
largest employment losses between May 1981 and May 1984, 16 are
goods-producing and only 4 are services-producing. The only
services-producing industry groups included in the top 20 employment
losers are Class I railroads (railroads and railway express
services), down 5.0 percent of the total employment change,
telephone communication(-3.5 percent), wholesale trade of petroleum
and petroleum products (-2.5 percent), and variety stores (-1.0
percent). The largest employment losers were blast furnaces (-6.9
percent) and nonhighway heavy construction (-5.0 percent).
Another way of analyzing the growth of industries is by the rate of
change in their growth. When this measure is applied, 14 of the top
20 most rapidly growing industries between May 1981 and May 1984
were services-producing and only six were goods-producing. These
six goods-producing industries included in the top 20 of this group
are miscellaneous transportation equipment; guided missiles, space
vehicles, and parts; electronic components and accessories; office
furniture'; miscellaneous furniture and fixtures; and roofing and
sheet metal work. The top 10 most rapidly growing industries are
shown in Table 18 at the 3-digit SIC level, using seasonally
unadjusted data from May 1981 to May 1984.
Among the top 20 most rapidly declining industries from.May 1981 to
May 1984, only three were services-producing industries. These
three were Class I railroads with a.24.45 percent decline, taxicabs
(-19.02 percent), and combined. real estate, insurance, etc. (-16.32
percent). The most rapidly declining industries during this period
were copper ores mining (-49.31 percent) and iron ores mining
(-45.00 percent).
A further observation when comparing the industries with the
greatest percentage of total employment growth and the most rapidly
growing industries, is that only four appear in the top ten of each
group. Among the services-producing industries, computers and data
processing services, personnel supply services, and legal services
appear in both groups. The only goods-producing industry to appear
in both groups is electronic components and accessories.
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Table 18
The Most Rapidly Growing Service Industries
(May 1981 to May 1984)
Industry
Employment
May 81 May 84
(thousands)
Percentage
Rate of
Growth
Computer & data
processing services
326.4
462.3
Personnel supply
services
605.8
821.7
35.64
Security brokers
.and dealers
208.3
277.9
33.41
Misc. transportation
equipment
39.2
50.9
29.85
Radio, TV & music
stores
144.5
186.1
28.79
Guided missiles, space
vehicles & parts
120.6
149.1
23.63
Mailing, reproduction,
and stenographic
125.9
155.4
23.43
Electronic components
and accessories
554.4
680.2
22.69
53.4
64.9
Legal services
521.5
631.3
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Establishment
Survey data.
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A similar comparison of the groups with the largest employment losses and the
most rapidly declining industries reveals only three industries included in
the top ten of both groups. Blast furnaces and basic steel products and
construction and related machinery appear as goods-producers. Only Class I
railroads appear as a service-producer.
The increase in employment within the services sector has not come from
manufacturing or agriculture, however. The majority of the services
employment has come from the expansion of the labor force, particularly
increased. participation by women. This growth has come in response to an
increase in demand for consumer services, by the changing nature of
international trade, and especially by the rapidly growing demand by
businesses for computer and data processing, accounting, marketing and other
information services they once provided for themselves. The strength of the
service sector is growing not at the expense of other industries, however, but
by serving them.
Wang #1017
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Appendix Table 1
Growth in Constant Dollar Industry Shiullents for 209 Manufacturing
Industries Listed by 1985 Rank Order 1/
1985
Rank 2/ SIC Industry
Order Code Title
Co1Tound
Annual
Annual Growth Rate Growth Rate
1984-85 1983-8 .1972-82
1
3674
Semiconductors and Related Devices
37.4
44.2
1
34
2
3332
Primary Lead
28.0
-27.0
.
-3
8
3
3721
Aircraft
21.1
-6.6
.
2.8
4
3764
Space Propulsion Units and Parts
18.0
9.6
1.4
5
3573
Electronic Computing Equipment
17.0
20.5
19.2
6
3334
Primary Aluminum
15.6
-17.0
-2.2
7
3693
X-ray Apparatus and Tubes
15.4
15.4
15.4
8
3761
Guided Missiles and Space Vehicles
14.7
12.6
0.2
9
332
Iron and Steel Foundries
13.6
12.8
-4
3
10
3714
Motor Vehicle Parts and Accessories
12.3
16.1
.
-4
0
11
3769
Space Vehicle Equipment, n.e.c.
11.7
10.8
.
-0
8
12
336
Nonferrous Foundries
10.8
5.0
.
1
-2
13
2819
Industrial Inorganic Chemicals, n.e:c.
10.0
10.7
.
1
0
14
3825
Instruments To Measure Electricity
10.0
19.1
.
4
8
15
3331
Primary Copper
10.0
-2.4
.
-2.3
16
3448
Prefabricated Metal Buildings
1.0.0
18.4
4
2
17
3451
Screw Machine Products
10.0
11.6
.
1
-0
18
3544
Special Dies, Tools, and Jigs
9.6
16.3
.
-0
9
19
2812
Alkalies and Chlorine
9.6
1.9
.
-5
4
20
3623
Electric Welding Apparatus
9.4
7.8
.
-1.0
21
3662
Radio and TV Communication Equipment
9.1
7.5-
8
0
22
2891
Adhesives and Sealants
8.9
9.3
.
1
8
23
2893
Printing Ink
8.7
8.5
.
-0
2
24
3567
Industrial Furnaces and Ovens
8.6
16.7
.
-1
4
25
3465
Automotive Stampings
8.1
22.5
.
-2
6
26
2831
Biological Products
8.0
8.0
.
12
2
27
3661
Telephone and Telegraph Apparatus
8.0
10.0
.
4
3
28
2879
Agricultural Chemicals, n.e.c.
7:9
10.0
.
2
8
29
2038
Frozen Specialties
7.6
4.1
.
1.2
30
3724
Aircraft Engines and Engine Parts
7.4
-11.2
2
7
31
3841
Surgical and Medical Instruments
7.2
7.2
.
1
7
32
3494
Valves and Pipe Fittings
7.1
6.1
.
2.0
33
3519
Internal Combustion Engines, n.e.c.
7.0
8.0
0
9
34
2647
Sanitary Paper Products
7.0
6.5
.
1
4
35
2611
Pulpmills
7.0
4.9
.
3
4
36
3546
Power Driven Handtools
7.0
7.4.
.
2
6
37
3679
Electronic Components, n.e.c.
6.9
16.3
.
8
8
38
3842
Surgical Appliances and Supplies
6.8
6.6
.
6
7
39
3533
Oilfield Machinery
6.7
5.4
.
10
1
40
3532
Mining Machinery
6.7
5.6
.
-1
4
41
3643
'Current-carrying Wiring Devices
6.5
10.0
.
-1
4
42
3621
Motors and Generators
6.5
10.0
.
0
2
43
331A
Steel Products (3312,3315,3316,3317)
6.4
2.6
.
-4
8
-44
3542
Metal-Forming Machine Tools
6.2
39.6
.
-4.4
45
3861
Photographic Equipment and Supplies
6.2
7.0
5
4
46
3631
Household Cooking Equipment
6.1
12.9
.
3
3
47
3622
Industrial Controls
6.0
8.0
.
2.9
48
3579
Office Machines and Typewriters, Etc.
6.0
6.5
7
4
49
'
3574
Calculating and Accounting Machines
6.0
6.0
.
13.0
50
3811
Engineering and Scientific Instruments
6.0
12.6
4
0
51
3562
Ball and Roller Bearings
6.0
8.9
.
-2
9
52
2771
Greeting Card Publishing
5.9'
7.0
.
2
7
53
3678
Electronic Connectors
5.9
11.1
.
10
6
54
2816
Inorganic Pigments
5.9
12.6
.
-3.9
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1985
Cannound
AnnuZl
Rank 2/
SIC
Industry.
Annual Growth Rate
Growth:Ratie
Order Code
Title
1984-85
1983-84
1972-82
55
2821
Plastics Materials and Resins
5.8
6.5
1.3
56
3944
Games, Toys, and-Childrens' Vehicles
5.6
6.8
2.9
57
3272
Concrete Products, n.e.c.
5.5
14.2
-2.5
58
3715
Truck Trailers
5.5
50.1
-3.6
?59
3541
Metal-Cutting Machine Tools
5.5
12.3
1.4
60
- 37 1A
Truck and Bus Bodies (37t3,3716)
5.3
17.4
-0.2
61
2086
Bottled and Canned Soft Drinks
5.1
5.4
2.0
62
3911
Jewelry and Precious Metal
5.1
-8.9
-5.2
63
3829
Measuring and Controlling Devices,n.e.c.
5.1
11.4
7.7
64
2875
Fertilizers, Mixing Only
5.0
13.0
-1.1
65
3531
Construction Machinery
5.0
8.8
-3.2
66
2761
Manifold Business Forms
5.0
6.0
4.1
67
3651
Radio and Television Receiving Sets
5.0
12.2
3.4
68
2022
Natural and Processed Cheese
5.0
11.1
3.8
69
3523
Farm Machinery and Equipment
5.0
3.1
0.0
70
2824
Organic Fibers Noncellulosic
4.8
1.8
2.9
71
3942
Dolls
4.7
13.0
2.0
72
3563
Air and Gas Compressors
4.5
4.3
5.3
73
2653
Corrugated and Solid Fiber Boxes
4.5
7.8
1.5
74
2017
Poultry and Egg Processing
4.5
3.6.
4.2
75
2731
Book Publishing
4.5
5.1
2.5
76
2052
Cookies and Crackers
4.5
5.7
0.6
77
3561
Pumps and Pumping Equipment
4.5
3.5
2.0
78
3711
Motor Vehicles and Car Bodies
4.4
19.5
-1.5
79
2741
Miscellaneous Publishing
4.4
5.4
1.5
80
3832
Optical Instruments and Lenses
4.4
21.8
. 16.7
81
2721
Periodicals
4.3
6.0
5.3
82
2869
Industrial Organic Chemicals, n.e.c.
4.3
17.5
-0.3
83
2843
Surface Active Agents
4.1
3.9
6.3
84
2621
Papermills, Except Building Paper
4.1
9.3
3.4
85
2492
Particleboard
4.1
6.0
-1.3
86
2833
Medicinals and Botanicals
4.0
4.2
13.9
87
3524
Lawn and Garden Equipment
4.0
12.0
0.7
88
2631
Paperboard Mills
4.0
4.8
-0.2
89
3555
Printing Trades Machinery
4.0
4.8
3.5
90
3636
Sewing Machines
4.0
8.7
-2.1
91
3613
Switchgear and Switchboard Apparatus
4.0
7.0
0.2
92
275A
Commercial Printing (2751,2752,2754)
4.0
5.8
2.8
93
2655
Fiber Cans. Drums, and Similar-Products
4.0
5.0
-0.8
94
2874
Phosphatic Fertilizers
-4.0
13.0
1.9
95
2511
Wood Household Furniture
4.0
9.7
-1.6
96
3949
Sporting and Athletic Goods, n.e.c.
4.0?
7.0
1.1
97
2873
Nitrogenous Fertilizers
4.0
12.7
3.8
98
2512
Upholstered Household Furniture
4.0
9.9
-0.6
99
2654
Sanitary Food Containers
4.0
5.9
-1.9
100
3823.
Process Control Instruments
4.0
4.5
8.9
101
3635
Household Vacuum Cleaners
4.0
8.3
0.4
102
3273
Ready-mixed Concrete
" 4.0
14.0
-1.7
103
2448
Wood Pallets and Skids
3.9
10.0
8.3
104
2016
Poultry Dressing Plants
3.8
3.0
6.2
105
2795
Lithographic Platemaking Services
3.8
6.1
9.8
106
3241
Hydraulic Cement
3.8
12.9
-2.6
107
3728
Aircraft. Equipment, n.e.c.
3.7
-3.9
4.1
108
3554
Paper Industries Machinery
3.6
-0.8
-0.9
109
3751
Motorcycles, Bicycles, and Parts
3.6
8.1
-1.9
110
3644
Noncurrent-carrying Wiring Devices
3.5
6.0
0.1
111
3632
Household Refrigerators and Freezers
3.5
12.4
-2.9
112
2641
Paper Coating and Glazing
3.5
4.6
1.1
113
2732
Book Printing
3.5
4.5
1.4
114
2842
Polishes and Sanitation Goods
3.3
3.1
-0.1
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=1985
,
Industr
Annual Growth Rate
Cart-Mind
Annual
Growth Rate
Rank 2/
Order
SIC
Code
y
Title
9 - 5
1972-82
115
3675
Electronic Capacitors
3.3
5.8
12
0
3.0
-3.8
116
3271
Concrete Block and Brick
3.3
.
1
4
0.8
117
2711
Newspapers
3.2
.
9
4
-5.8
118
3552
Textile Machinery
3.2
.
.
8
6
0.2
119
3551
Food Products Machinery
3.2
.
1
8
5.7
120
2861
Gum. and Wood Chemicals
3.1
1
3
.
5.6
-2.9
121
2892
Explosives
.
9
4
0.0
122
2515
Mattresses and Bedsprings
3.1
.
1
-10
2.3
123
2037
Frozen Fruits and Vegetables
ts
d
P
3:0
3.0
.
0.5
4.5
124 .
3079
uc
ro
Miscellaneous Plastics
3
0
5
3
.
-1.5
-
11.
125
3452
Bolts, Nuts, Rivets, and Washers
3648)
4
.
3
0
.
3
5.6
-
.5
8
126
364A
6,
Lighting Fixtures (3645,36
.
3
0
4.0
0.
0
127
2643
Bags, Except Textile Bags
.
0
1
13
1
.5
1.3
128
3639
Household Appliances, n.e.c.
3
3.
0
.
9
2
1
129
2813
Industrial Gases
.
3.0
.
6.9
5.
130
2899
Chemical Preparations, n.e"c.
0
3
5.4
1.5
131
3634
Electric Housewares and Fans
.
9
2
-
5
00..
132
3585
Refrigeration and Heating Equipment
3.0
0
3
.
5.5
-
7
133
3612
Transformers
.
0
3
5
3
1.1
134
2651
Folding Paperboard Boxes
.
0
.
10
2
-2.1
135
3633
Household Laundry Equipment
3.
9
.
1
2
0.3
136
3564
Blowers and Fans
2.
.
0
4
4.0
137
2649
Converted Paper Products, n.e.c.
2.9
9
2
.
5.6
-0.5
138
2865
Cyclic Crudes and Intermediates
.
9
2
5
2
2.6
139
3843
Dental Equipment and Supplies
.
9
.
9
6
-1.9
140
2141
Tobacco Stemming and Redrying
2.
.
13
4
0.8
141
2851
Paints and Allied Products
2.8
.
1
0
3.9
142
3961
Costume Jewelry
2.8
8
2
.
3
1
1
143
2834
Pharmaceutical Preparations
.
8
2
.
7.9
-3.
144
2514
Metal Household Furniture
.
5
2
2.0
2.9
14'5
2642
Envelopes
.
5
5
2
1
1.5
1.
146
2841
Soap and Other Detergents
2.
.
9
9
_
.5,
1
7
3069
Fabricated Rubber Products, n.e.c.
2.4
.
4
1
2
4
2.3
2.
.
148
2844
Toilet Preparations
1
2
4
-0.8
51
and Related Products
Cake
d
B
2.
.
7
-1
149
20
1
,
rea
,
r and Plastic Hose and Belting
bb
R
2.1
9.7
.
7
3
150
304
e
u
t
d
?2.0
9.5
151
2065
s
uc
Confectionery Pro
0
11
8
-2.2
2895
Carbon Black
2.
.
4
0
152
153
2645
Die-cut Paper and Board
2.0
0
2.0
0
0
.
0.7
154
3161
Luggage
2.
1
9
.
19
8
3.1
155
3824
Fluid Meters and Counting Devices
.
1
9
.
0
5.6
156
2035
Pickles, Sauces, and Salad Dressing
.
1
9
;.
0
4
157
2084
Wines,' Brandy, and Brandy Spirits
.
9
1 1
4
11
4
158
2034
Dehydrated Fruits.` Vegetables, and
Soup
1.7 1
5
5 . :9
.0
.
.
.
-
0
159
3441
Fabricated Structural Metal
.
1
-
1
.9
160
2043
Cereal Breakfast Foods
4 .
1
.
3.5
-3.2
161
3411
Metal Cans
.
2 4
1
3
0.4
162
2823
Cellulosic Manmade Fibers
.
2
1
6 6
10
-0
.6
1
and Inner Tubes
Ti
.
.
3
2
0
0
2
163
164
301
3172
res
Personal Leather Goods, n.e.c.
1.2
3.4
.
.
1
165
3676
Electronic Resistors
1.1
-3.9
.9 0
-
166
3221
Glass Containers
1
.
.
-6.1
1 1
0.1
2033
Canned Fruits and Vegetables
8
-2
?
167
168
3931
Musical Instruments
1
0
1.0
6
.
0.9
.
0.6
169
3677
Electronic Coils and Transformers
0
1 1.
9.7
-0.4
170
2822
Synthetic Rubber
9
0
0.8
0.1
171
2032
Canned Specialties
.
0
5
0
3
0.6
172
2024
Ice Cream and Frozen Desserts
.
0
3
.
7
-5
-3.0
3111
Leather Tanning and Finishing
.
.
9
3
0
173
174
3171
Women's Handbags and Purses
0.2
5.
.
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1985
Conpound
Annu'..1
Rank 2/
SIC
Industry
Annual Growth Rate
Growth.Ra:.e
Order Code
Title
1984-85
1983-84
1972-82
175
2435
Hardwood Veneer and Plywood
0.1
7.0
-1,9
176
2082
Malt Beverages
0.1
0.2
48
177
2013
Sausages and Other Prepared Meats
0.1
0.8
25
.
178
2021
Creamery Butter
0.0
1.0
-0
.8
178
2491
Wood Preserving
0.0
4.0
3.0
178
2648
Stationery Products
0.0
1.5
0.2 ? ,
178
2652
Setup Paperboard Boxes
0.0
-1.5
-6.7
178
3151
Leather Gloves and Mittens
0.0
0.7
-4.4
183
3251
Brick and Structural Clay Tile
-0.5
9. 1
-6.5
184
2131
Chewing and Smoking Tobacco
-0.8
0.8
2.8 'r.
185
2911
Petroleum Refining
-0.9
2.5
1.4
186
2026
Fluid Milk
-0.9
-0.3
0.9
187
3262
Vitreous China Food Utensils
-1:0
2.9
2.5
188
2439
Structural Wood Members, n.e.c.
-1.0
5.5
0.1
189
3021
Rubber and Plastics Footwear
-1.1
-1.1
-3.6
190
3275
Gypsum Products
-1.7
5.7
-1.1
191
2111
Cigarettes
-1.8
-0.2
1.2
192
2121
Cigars
-1.8
-1.9
-7.5
193
2431
Millwork
-2..0
3.2
-3.0
194
3822
Environmental Controls
-2.0
15.3
1.6
195
2011
Meatpacking Plants
-2.4
0.1
0.3
196
3263
Fine Earthenware Food Utensils
-2.9
-5.6
-6.3
197
2411
Logging Camps and Log Contractors
-3.0
3.6
5.3
197
2646
Pressed and Molded Pulp Goods
-3.0
-1.4
-4.8
199
2023
Condensed and Evaporated Milk
-3.4
2.6
0.7
200
3671
Electron Tubes
-3.6
2.1
-0.8
201
2085
Distilled Liquor, Except Brandy
-3.9
0.4
-0.2
202
2426'
Hardwood Dimension and Flooring
-4.0
5.0
-3.2
203
3731
Ship Building and Repairing
-4.0
-3.3
3.6
204
2386
Leather and Sheep Lined Clothing
-4.0
-22.8
-5.6
204-
2661
Building Paper and Board Mills
-4.0
-0.3
-9.5
206
3333
Primary Zinc
-4.9
14.7
-8.7
207
2436
Softwood Veneer and Plywood
-7.4
11.3
-1.0
208
2421
Sawmills and Planing Mills - General
-10.4
17.1
-1.9
209
3511
Turbines and Turbine Generator Sets
-21.9
0.8
-4.4
1/ All calculations in tables 1 and 2 are based on industry shipments expressed
in 1972 dollars. The 1972 constant dollar data provide a basis for
calculating real rates of change in shipments. The percent change figures
provide a measure of changes in the volume of industry shipments and allow
interindustry. comparisons without the distorting influence of price change.
2/ Industries with the same rank have the same growth rate. Due to rounding,
industries may have identical printed growth rates and different ranks. Thc..
rank order reflects the unrounded growth rates.
'Tables included in this article were,developed by Joanne Hepburn, Office,of
Trade and Industry Information, 202/377-1230."
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/21: CIA-RDP87M00539R002403970009-5
TRADE INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS
PUBLICATIONS
JANUARY 1985
A Current Listing ofAvailable
Publications with Ordering Information
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
International Trade Administration
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20230
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Contents
Categories
Page
Key Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
Competitive Assessments . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
East-West Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Foreign Business Practices . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Foreign Direct Investment in the United States. . . 5
High Technology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Investment in the United States . . . . . ... . . . 8
Investment Research and Analysis. . . . . . . . . . 8
Jobs and Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Sectoral Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
State Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ?. . . 11
Trade Finance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Trade Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Order Form for Free Publications. . . . . . . . . 15
Order Form for GPO, NTIS Publications . . . . . . . 16
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/21: CIA-RDP87M00539R002403970009-5
Key Abbreviations
TIA - TRADE INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS
OIA - Office of Industry Assessment
IPD- Industry Publication Division
IRF- Industry Research & Forecasting Division
IPRD- Industry Projects Division
IAD- Industry Analysis Division
OTF - Office of Trade Finance
OTIA - Office of Trade and Investment Analysis
IAD- Investment Analysis Division
IED- International Economics Division
IRD- Investment Research Division
TRD- Trade Research Division
OTII - Office of Trade and Industry Information
TDD- Trade Data Division
TPID- Trade Policy Information Division
TSD- Trade Statistics Division
OPRM - Office of Program and Resource Management
RMD- Resource Management Division
PMD- Program Management Division
BIE - Bureau of Industrial Economics
GPO - Government Printing Office
NTIS - National Technical Information Service
OBR - Overseas Business Reports
OFPDC - Office of Forest Products and Domestic Construction
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/21: CIA-RDP87M00539R002403970009-5
TRADE INFORMATION AND ANALYSIS
PUBLICATIONS LIST
January 1985
PLEASE NOTE: This list includes only publications that
are still current. Publications listed for
the first time this month are marked with an'
asterisk ('). Order forms are at the end.
COMPETITIVE ASSESSMENTS
A Competitive Assessment of the U.S. Advanced Ceramics
Industry. March 1984, 74 pp. & appendices, NTIS PB-84-162288,
$16.00, Ted Schlie, OIA/IAD.
Discusses new ceramic materials and products which have
been developed over the past 30 years. Reviews two
principal areas of the ceramics industry: electronic
components and engineering products, concluding that the
electronic components business has been largely captured by
Japan. Although at present there is no clear indication
that either Japan or the United States has a general
technological lead in advanced engineering ceramics, the
United States may fall behind Japan in the field of
advanced engineering ceramics as well.
A Competitive Assessment of the U.S. Civil Aircraft Industry.
March 1984, 150 pp. & appendices, NTIS PB-84-154913, $17.50,
Ted Schlie, OIA/IAD.
Examines the future international competitiveness of the
U.S. civil aircraft industry in terms of large transport,
commuter, business, and helicopter aircraft. Concludes
that U.S. international competitiveness will depend upon
the performance and interaction among an array of economic,
market, and technological variables, such as the extent to
which existing large transports are replaced by new large
transports in the 1990's.
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A Competitive Assessment of the U.S. Fiber-Optics Industry.
September 1984, 67 pp., GPO S/N 003-009-004-33-1, $3.00,
Timothy C. Finton, Office of Telecommunications.
Describes the enormous growth in fiber optics in the world
market. Concludes that growth in a high-technology
industry is especially important as it spurs increased
applications and growth in other industries. Concludes
that the United States presently has a modest lead over its
competitors, due to the enormous resources of its major
companies and their shares in the largest fiber optics
market, the domestic U.S. market. Describes the importance
of U.S. participation in overseas markets in order to bring
about better economies of scale. Shows how U.S. firms are
being challenged by the Japanese, British, French, and West
Germans and makes recommendations on future actions by both
industry and Government in order to keep U.S. firms
competitive.
An Assessment of U.S. Competitiveness in High Technology
Industries. (See entry under High Technology, below).
A Competitive Assessment of the U.S. Information Services
Industry. May 1984, 61 pages, NTIS PB-84-174804, $11.50, Ted
Schlie, OIA/IAD.
Assesses the role of the United States as the largest
producer of databases and on-line information services in
the world, as well as the largest market for such
services. Concludes that: U.S. firms are likely to remain
strongly competitive in this industry if U.S. services
remain relatively efficient: restrictions on access to
foreign information for the development of new databases
are minimal; delivery of services in foreign markets is not
restricted; and trade continues to be based on the full
cost of the services delivered.
A Competitive Assessment of the U.S. International Construction
Industry. July 1984, 84 pp. + bibliography, GPO S/N
003-009-00431-4, $4.50; or NTIS PB-85-103919, $13.00, 1/ Ted
Schlie, OIA/IAD.
Analyzes the present performance of the U.S. international
construction industry and the factors and trends which will
influence competitiveness in the future. U.S.
international construction firms have been facing
1/ The price differential between GPO and NTIS arises because
NTIS maintains a longer-term inventory than GPO. This
publication is also available on microfiche from NTIS for
$4.50.
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increasingly strong competition on the basis of total
project costs, including financing costs and various forms
of subsidized risk insurance. It is likely that the U.S.
share of the international market for conventional
(infrastructure-oriented, labor intensive) construction
projects will continue to decline in the future as firms
from the newly industrialized and developing countries take
over a greater portion of the work of this type. This
decline could be offset by a gain in the international
market share for large, complex, technology-intensive
projects.
A Competitive Assessment of the U.S. Manufacturing Automation
Equipment Industry. June 1984, 101 pp. + bibliography, GPO S/N
003-009-00432-2, $4.50; or NTIS PB-85-103927, $13.00, 2/ Ted
Schlie, OIA/IAD.
Examines the present and future international
competitiveness of the U.S. manufacturing automation
equipment industries in terms of their principal
businesses: machine tools, industrial robots, and CAD/CAM
systems. The U.S. machine tool industry has experienced a
severe decline in its competitive position in the last
several years. Though not to so serious an extent, the
U.S. industrial robot manufacturers have also suffered in
competition with foreign manufacturers. The U.S. CAD/CAM
manufacturers, however, currently hold a.strong position in
relation to foreign competitors.
A Competitive Assessment of the U.S. Petrochemical Industry.
August 31, 1982, 57 pp. & appendices (total, 172 pp.), NTIS
PB-83-176271, $22.00, Ted Schlie, OIA/IAD.
Discusses.the restructuring of the world-wide petrochemical
industry and forecasts a gradual decline in the
competitiveness of U.S. commodity petrochemicals. Focuses
on the opportunities arising in downstream specialty
chemicals and pseudocommodity petrochemicals. Predicts
that advances in technology and market needs for new, high
performance materials will be the object of intense
international competition among the United States, Japan,
and Western Europe. Also presents policy options for
consideration by the U.S. Department of Commerce.
2/ The price differential between GPO and NTIS arises because
NTIS maintains a longer-term inventory than GPO. This
publication is also available on microfiche from NTIS for
$4.50.
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A Competitive Assessment of the U.S. Solid Wood Products
Industry. August 1984, 156 pp., GPO S/N 003-009-00368-7,
$5.50, Donald W. Butts,?OFPDC..
Traces the moderate growth over the past two decades of the
solid wood products industry and analyzes the industry's
worldwide competitive position. Presents supply, demand,
and trade data for major foreign markets and competitor
countries. Describes industry characteristics, raw
material supply of hardwoods and softwoods, demand, trade
patterns, competition, and costs, barriers to trade, trade
factors and trends, policy options in solid wood trade, and
future trade in solid wood products. Examines relevant
Federal policies for industry implications and proposes
remedial actions where appropriate.
EAST-WEST TRADE
Controlling International Debt: Implications for East-West
Trade. September 1983, 30 pp., price to be announced, Allen
Lenz, OTIA.
Discusses the export policies and performance of Council
for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) countries.
ENERGY
U.S. Energy for the Rest of the Century. July 1984, NTIS
PB-84-207-406, $10.00, Joseph F. Gustaferro, OIA/IAD.
Reports and projects U.S. energy supply
and demand.
FOREIGN BUSINESS PRACTICES
Foreign Business Practices: Materials on Practical'Aspects of
Exporting, International-Leasing and Investing. May 1981, 118
pp., GPO S/N 003-009-00343-1, $5.50 (domestic), $6.90 (foreign)
(being updated).
Provides basic, practical information about exporting,
international licensing, and investing.
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FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES
Bibliography of Foreign Direct Investment in the United
States. July 1981, 40 pp., OTIA.
Identifies and classifies by subject matter materials
covering various aspects of foreign direct investment in
the United States.
Direct Investment in the United States by Foreign
Government-Owned Companies, 1974-1981. (1983) 117 pp., GPO S/N
003-009-00359-8, $5.50 (domestic); $6.90 (foreign),
Michael A. Goodwin, OTIA/IAD.
Examines direct investments in the United States by
companies owned or controlled either directly or indirectly
by foreign governments.
Foreign Direct Investment in the U.S. Petroleum Industry. April
1982, 120 pp., GPO S/N 003-009-00354-7, $5.50 (domestic), $6;90
(foreign), John W. Rutter, OTIA/IRD.
Highlights the increasing rate of foreign direct investment
in the U.S. petroleum industry.
Foreign Direct Investment, 1980 Transactions, (1981), 25 pp.,
GPO S/N 003-009-00347-4, $2.25 (domestic), $2.85 (foreign).
Foreign Direct Investment in the United States, 1980. (1983)
236 pp., GPO S/N 003-009-00123-2, $8.00 (domestic), $10.00
(foreign), BEA.
Lists completed foreign direct investments by source
country.
Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: 1981
Transactions. December 1982, 70 pp., GPO S/N 003-009-00357-1,
$4.75 (domestic), $5.95 (foreign), OTIA/IAD.
Identifies specific foreign direct investment transactions
in the United States, analyzing recent trends in such
investment and providing data on significant transactions.
Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: 1982
Transactions. February 1984, 72 pp., GPO: C 61-25/2:982; S/N
003-009-00366-1, $3.50 (domstic), $4.40 (foreign), OTIA/IAD.
Identifies specific foreign direct investment transactions
in the United States, analyzing recent trends in such
investment and providing data on significant transactions.
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Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: 1983
Transactions. September 1984, 85 pp., GPO S/N 003-009-00370-9,
$3.25 (domestic), $4.10 (foreign), OTIA/IAD.
Identifies specific foreign direct investment transactions
in the United States, analyzing recent trends in such
investment and providing data on significant transactions.
International Direct Investment - Global Trends and the U.S.
Role, August 1984, 100 pp., GPO S/N 003-009-00369-5, $5.50
(domestic), $6.90 (foreign), John Rutter, OTIA/IRD.
Provides a non-technical overview of the growth of
international direct investment, including direct
investment abroad by the United States, foreign direct
investment in the United States, and the concerns and
policy issues raised by international direct investment.
OPEC Direct Investments in the United States. November 1981,
29 pp., GPO S/N 003-009-00350-4, $2.50 (domestic), $3.15
(foreign), Michael A. Goodwin, OTIA/IAD (being updated).
Lists on a country-by-country basis OPEC investment
activity in the United States, including information on.the
location of the investment, the U.S. industry involved, the'
foreign corporate owner, foreign beneficial owner, type of
investment, and'value of the transaction.
HIGH TECHNOLOGY
An Assessment of U.S. Competitivensss in High Technology
Industries. February 1983, 68 pp., GPO S/N 003-009-0358-0,
$5.00, William Finan (Contact person: Dr. Edwin B. Shykind,
Techical Advisor to the Assistant Secretary for Trade
Development).
Discusses the significantly altered competitive environment
faced by U.S. high technology industries. Includes these
key findings: high technology industries are vital to the
U.S. economy; national security depends upon
technology-intensive industries; the United States will
have to depend heavily on advanced technology to meet
increased competition in world markets; since the early
1970's there has been a decline in the international market
position of U.S. high technology industries from a position
of dominance to one of being strongly challenged. Foreign
government industrial programs to promote high technology
industries have adversely affected U.S. high technology
industries and will, if trends continue, place U.S.
businesses at a disadvantage. The major technological
challenge to the United States is from Japan, and this
challenge can be expected to broaden in the future.
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Biotechnology. July 1984, 217 pp., GPO S/N 003-C..
$7.00, Emily Arakaki, Basic Industries.
Reports results of meetings of representative-
technology industries with Federal officials.
that the U.S. lead in biotechnology will be s=
challenged by Japanese and European competito-
U.S. and world markets. Discusses regulator,'
export controls, patent protection, antitrust
research and development tax incentives.
The Computer Industry. April 1983, 70 pp., GPO S
003-009-00360-1, $4.50, Robert Eckelman, Interna--
Policy.
Assesses the international competitive positi:
computer industry; pinpoints major foreign ar_
challenges to U.S. computer manufacturers; an
policy options concerning the sector's intern:-
standing.
The Robotics Industry. April 1983, 54 pp., GPO S.
003-009-00363-6, $4.00, Robert Eckelmann, Interna''
Policy.
Assesses the international competitive posit 4.
robotics industry; pinpoints major foreign ar
challenges to U.S. robot producers; and sugge
options affecting the sector's international
The Semiconductor Industry. April 1983, 32 pp.,
003-009-0361-0, $3.50, Dr. Edwin B. Shykind, Tech-
to the Assistant Secretary for Trade Development.
Assesses the industry's international competi-
identifies important competitive issues; and ::
policy options to address those issues.
The Telecommunications Industry. April 1983, 78
003-009-00362-8, $4.50, Robert Eckelmann, Interna-
Policy.
Profiles the competitiveness of the.U.S. tele,:
industry, concluding that it is imperative th=
Government make full use of bilateral and mu1- .
channels to promote equitable opportunities f.
producers' competition and growth.
Technology Intensity of U.S. Output and Trade.
pp., price to be announced, Lester A. Davis, OTIr'..
Concludes that the United States no longer ha:
-competitive advantage in the production and t?
technology goods.
-7-
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INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES
Attracting Foreign Investment to the United States: A Guide
for Government (1981). 250 pp., price to be announced, ITA
(International Marketing Information Series).
Assists economic development professionals to understand
the process of attracting foreign investment to specific
localities in the United States. Lists names and telephone
numbers of key offices and persons; provides country
sketches.
Invest in the USA: A Guide for the Foreign Investor (1981).
(in English and French). March 1981, 44 pp., price to be
announced, ITA, Office of Export Marketing Assistance.
Discusses the substantial programs for encouraging direct
investment by domestic and foreign concerns; contains a
brief guide to Federal agencies having jurisdiction over
foreign investment in the United States.
INVESTMENT RESEARCH & ANALYSIS
International Direct. Investment - Global Trends and the U.S.
Role (See entry under Foreign Direct Investment in the United
States, above).
Investment Climate in Foreign Countries. 4 Volumes, August
1983, NTIS PB-83246876, $45.00, OTIA/IRD.
Contains investment climate assessments for OECD and other
European countries, including Japan and Canada (Volume 1),
Africa (Volume 2), Asian countries other than Japan (Volume
3), and countries in the Western Hemisphere other than
Canada (Volume 4).
JOBS AND EXPORTS..
1981 U.S. Manufactured Exports & Export-Related Employment:
Profiles of the 50 States & 10 Selected SMSAs. Project
DTR-32-84, July 1984, price to be announced, George M. Mehl,
OTIA/TRD.
Contains estimates of export-related sales and employment
for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Tables list value of shipments, total (direct and indirect)
exports, employment, and export-related employment levels
for 20 industries.
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U.S. Trade Performance in 1983 and Outlook. 88 pp.,-GPO S/N
003-009-00367-9 $4.50 (domestic), $5.'65 (foreign), Lester A.
Davis, OTIA/TRD.
Describes developments in U.S. merchandise trade, analyzing
the causes of the trade deficit and discussing the outlook
for the future. Concludes that the current trade deficit
is not likely to narrow quickly.
SECTORAL ANALYSIS
Annual Report to the President on the U.S./Canadian Auto Parts
Agreement. Annual, statutory. Approx. 75-100 pp. (varies each
year), price to be announced, Michael A. Driggs, Automotive
Affairs.
Reports on the state of the auto industry, with emphasis on
U.S.=Canadian automotive agreements.
Annual Report from the Secretary to the Congress on the U.S.
Automobile Industry.- Annual, 82 pp., price to be announced,
Michael A. Driggs, Automotive Affairs.
Reports on the economic condition and competitive position
of the U.S. automotive industry.
Confectionery Manufacturers Sales and Distribution. Annual.
Industry survey report. Approx. 30 pp, NTIS PB-82-251547,
$8.50, Cornelius F. Kenney, Consumer Goods/Automotive.
Includes detailed data on the volume and value of sales of
confectionery products, ingredients used, and foreign
trade, as well as an analysis of signficant industry
developments and future trends.
Construction Review. Bimonthly. Pages vary; averages between
60-100 pp.; GPO ID No.: CORE, annual subscription: (Domestic),
$17.00; (Foreign), $21.25; single copy: (domestic), $4.75;
(Foreign), $5.95. Nathan Rubinstein, Basic Industries/OFPDC.
Is a compendium of 38 statistical series pertaining to the
construction and building products industries.
Electric Current Abroad, 1984 Edition. GPO S/N 003-008-00
193-9, $2.50, BIE, Richard Whitley, Capital Goods.
Lists the characteristics of electric current in major
foreign cities, including type, number of phases,
frequency, and voltage.
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Franchising in the Economy.' Annual. 89 pp., GPO S/N-
003-008-00192-1, $2.50 (domestic), $3.15 (foreign), Andrew
Kostecka, Services.
Covers 22 business categories and discusses the nature of
franchises and specific industries, with projections for
increase/decrease in franchise operations. Data'include
sales, number of establishments, employment, minority
ownership, total investment, and start-up cash required.
Franchise Opportunities Handbook. Annual. 354 pp., GPO S/N
003-008-00194-7. 354 pp., $13.50 (domestic), $16.87 (foreign)
ITA and MBDA (October 1984), Andrew Kostecka, Services.
Provides data on most U.S. franchisors, including franchise
offerings and government assistance programs and practical
advice on entering franchise agreements.
Industry Consultations Program Sector Profiles, 1983. 424 pp.,
price to be announced, Trade Advisory Center.
Contains summaries of advice on international trade issues
provided by private sector business advisors in
consultation. with the U.S. Government.
The Outlook for Solid Wood Products in the 1980's. 1983, 72
pp., NTIS PB-84-129790, $6.00 (paper), $4.50 (microfiche),
Chris Kristensen and others, Basic Industries.
Examines the long-term outlook for solid wood products
industries. The likelihood is that demand will fall'short
of earlier expectations, and major long-term shortages of
solid wood products seem unlikely.
Profitability and Liquidity of Manufacturing Industries, August
1984, 8 pp. & Tables, price to be announced, Dr. Gorti V.L.
Narasimham and Robert C. Reed.
Traces the improved liquidity of manufacturing industries.
Notes that investment by manufacturing industries has
continously increased during the last six quarters and
capital spending has outstripped internal resources,
creating a financing gap that is putting increasing
pressure on financial markets. Forecasts that the,
continued growth of corporate profits and the more generous
capital consumption allowances will allow the traditional
measures of balance sheet strength to stabilize in the near
term. Beyond that, the outlook depends on budget deficits
and interest rate outlook. -
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Steel: Supply and Demand in the 1980's, 1982, 46 pp., NTIS
PB-83-105676, $10.00, Don Darroch, Basic Industries.
Concludes that the prospect of a steel shortage sufficient
to disrupt industrial production seriously is unlikely.
1984 U.S. Industrial Outlook. Work begins in March for a
January release date, GPO Stock No. 003-008-00190-4, 626 pp.,
$14, John J. Bistay, OIA/IPD.
Reviews and forecasts on an industry- by-industry basis the
outlook for 300 manufacturing and service industries.
Includes shipments data, trends information and analysis,
trade information, and statistical profiles.
STATE EXPORTS
State Export Reports, August 1984, GPO Stock Numbers given
below, $1.25 for individual State reports (25% discount for 100
or more reports of same State; no discount for set of 50 State
reports), OTII.
Present data on manufactured and agricultural exports in
tabular form for exports from individual states. Include
information on State exports of fish, fish products, and
minerals.
(Supplies Limited).
GPO Stock No.
Alabama.
003-009-00371-7
Alaska
003-009-00372-5
Arizona
003-009-00373-3
Arkansas
003-009-00374-1
California
003-009-00375-0
Colorado
003-009-00376-8
Connecticut
003-009-00377-6
Delaware
003-009-00378-4
Florida
003-009-00379-2
Georgia
003-009-00380-6
Hawaii
003-009-00381-4
Idaho
003-009-00382-2
Illinois
003-009-00383-1
Indiana
003-009-00384-9
Iowa
003-009-00385-7
Kansas
003-009-00386-5
Kentucky
003-009-00387-3
Louisana
003-009-00388-1
Maine
003-009-00389-0
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Maryland
003-009-00390-3
Massachusetts
003-009-00391-1
Michigan
003-009-00392-0
Minnesota
003-009-00393-8
Mississippi
003-009-00394-6
Missouri
003-009-00395-4
Montana
003-009-00396-2
Nebraska
003-009-00397-1
Nevada
003-009-00398-9
New Hampshire
003-009-00399-7
New Jersey
003-009-00400-4
New Mexico
003-009-00401-2
New York
003-009-00402-1
North Carolina
003-009-00403-9
North Dakota
003-009-00404-7
Ohio
003-009-00405-5
Oklahoma
003-009-00406-3
Oregon
003-009-00407-1
Pennsylvania
003-009-00408-0
Rhode Island
003-009-00417-9
South Carolina
003-009-00418-7
South Dakota
003-009-00419-5
Tennesseee
003-009-00420-9
Texas
003-009-00421-7
Utah
003-009-00422-5
Vermont
003-009-00423-3
Virginia
003-009-00424-1
Washington
003-009-00425-0
West Virginia
003-009-00426-8
Wisconsin
003-009-00427-6
Wyoming
003-009-00428-4
TRADE FINANCE
International Countertrade: A Guide for Managers and
Executives, November 1984, 169 pp., price to be announced, Dr.
Pompiliu Verzariu, OTF.
Discusses the current countertrade environment, forms of
countertrade, regulations affecting U.S. companies,.and
support services for countertrade. Summarizes countertrade
practices in Latin America, Africa, Middle East, and Asia.
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/21 CIA-RDP87M00539R002403970009-5
Official U.S. and International Financing Institutions: A
Guide for Exporters and Investors. December 1980, 12 pp., GPO
S/N 003-009-00339-3 $2.75 (domestic), $3.45 (foreign), Office
of International Finance, Investment and Services, Dr. Marilyn
J. Seiber, (being updated by Keith Smith, OTF).
Provides information on sources of financing, insurance,
and procurement for U.S. exports and investments. Includes
summary descriptions of U.S. Export-Import Bank, Foreign
Credit Insurance Association, International Development
Cooperation Agency, U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Inter-American Development Bank, Asian Development Bank,
and African'Development Fund.
TRADE STATI.STICS
Current International Trade Position of the United States,
November 1984, Quarterly, 8 pp., price to be announced,
OTII/TSD.
Contains charts and tables featuring total imports,
exports, manufactured imports, and manufactured exports.
Current Price Developments in the U.S. and Major Foreign
Countries. Monthly, 7 pp., price to be announced, OTII/TSD.
Records data on price developments in the United States and
four trade competitors: Federal Republic of Germany,
France, Japan, and the United Kingdom.
International Economic Indicators, September 1984. Quarterly,
72 pp., GPO S/N 003-025-80001-9, Catalogue No. 61-14, annual
subscription, $18.00; single copy: $4.95, OTII/TSD.
Provides comparative economic data for the United States
and seven other industrial countries.
Key International Economic-Data. Biweekly, 3 pp., price to be
announced, OTII/TSD.
Provides figures on the balance of trade, exports, imports,
balance of current account, and value of the U.S. dollar,
GNP; industrial production, producer prices, and export
prices.
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Market Share Reports, 1978-80. Annual, OTII/TSD.
Commodity Series. 1672 separate reports,, each l2pp.,
$6.50, NTIS, PB 82-79 (plus commodity designation)
(Inspection copy in Trade Reference Room).
Provides U.S. shares of exports from supplier
countries to the world and to destinations during
specified periods.
Country Series. 88 separate reports. Each 50 to 100 pp.,
$9.00, NTIS PB 82-79 (plus country designation) (Ins,pection
copy in Trade Reference, Room).
Provides U.S. shares of total exports and imports of
manufactures into specific countries.
United States Foreign Trade Annual, 1975-1981. Included in
annual subscription to Overseas Business Reports, 34 pp., $44
from GPO: OBR 83-07; single copy, $2.00; also available from.,
ITA Publications Distribution, Rm. 1617, U.S. Department of
Commerce, OTII/TSD.
Lists annual value of U.S. exports, imports and merchandise
balance.
United States Foreign Trade Flash Tables. Monthly, 16 pp.,
price to be announced, OTII/TSD.
Reports monthly on U.S. merchandise trade, trade in
manufactured goods, U.S. exports and imports of selected
products, U.S. trade balance, and imports of passenger cars.
United States Trade With Major World Areas 1975-1981. Included
in annual subscription to Overseas Business Reports, 86 pp.,
$44 from GPO: OBR 83-11, single copy, $2.75; also available
from ITA Publications Distribution, Rm. 1617,-U.S. Department
of Commerce, OTII/TSD.
Reports on U.S. trade with major world areas, including
exports and imports of principal commodities from major
world areas, and U.S. exports and imports of selected
end-use categories.
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