SEEKING ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS ON AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87M00539R001702570031-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 28, 2009
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: April 9, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2009/09/08: CIA-RDP87M00539R001702570031-3
% CONFIDENTIAL
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9APR1i)
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Director, Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis
SUBJECT: Seeking Alternative Analysis on Afghanistan
1. Although we in NESA are confident of our analysis on
Afghanistan and encounter no significant differences of opinion
within the Intelligence Community on the state of the war, we are
making strong efforts to obtain the views of outside experts and
find new approaches to the problem.
-- NESA is negotiating'a contract with 25X1
to prepare an independent 25X1
has assembled a panel of 25X1
experts on Soviet or Afghanistan matters to contribute to
a paper which is to resemble a national estimate. At our
request, is contracting with scholars who are 25X1
highly qualified but who can take a fresh look at the
problem.
analysis of the war,
agree with our analysis on the war and asking them to
challenge our views. For example, we talk regularly with
who is a leading
war and that the Afghan regime is starting to consolidate
its control.
spokesman for the view that the Soviets are winning the
25X1 25X1
-- We have for some time also been seeking out scholars and
journalists with knowledge of Afghanistan for con-
sultations on developments and the dynamics of the
situation. The analysts are also in regular contact with
Afghan exiles to obtain their views and details, particu-
larly on economic and sociological matters. We have been
talking with some Soviet scholars, but few are giving the
situation any real thought. (Attached is information
from recent meetings with Afghans.)
-- We make a point of contacting outside experts who do not
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 Approved For Release 2009/09/08: CIA-RDP87M00539R001702570031-3
SUBJECT: Seeking Alternative Analysis
-- With the assistance of OGI's Insurgency Center, we have
brought in American scholars who have studied the
dynamics of insurgencies worldwide to help us think about
factors important in the Afghanistan problem. We have
also found and fully cleared a consultant who has agreed
to explore ways of using advanced operations research
methodologies to "measure" the war.
2. We will continue to look for independent assessment by
maintaining and expanding contacts. Over the next several months
we will bring together many experts for another conference on
Afghanistan. We are also looking into subjects for new external
contracts.
Attachment
As stated
DDI/NESA/SO
Distribution:
Orig - Addressee, w/att
1 - DDCI, w/att
1 - EXDIR, w/att
1 - ExReg., w/att
1 - DDI, w/att
1 - D/NESA, w/att
1 - C/NESA/SO, w/att
1 - C/NESA/Admin, w/att
1 - C/NESA/SO/P, w/att
1 - Chrono, w/att
k9 Apr 85) 25X1
2
CONFIDENTIAL
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