RESPONSE TO DCI QUESTIONS ON SWAPO AND ANC

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87M00539R001502000016-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 28, 2009
• Sequence Number: 16
• Publication Date: August 8, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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ANSMITTAL SLIP
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ROOM NO.
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REMARKS: NIOAFRICA
FROM: 7-E-47 CIA Hqs.
ROOM NO.
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EXTENSION
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National Intelligence Council
Inc e or o en ra Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
NIC #03979-85
8 August 1985
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: Frederick L. Wettering ("..I
National Intelligence Officer for Africa
SUBJECT: Response to DCI Questions on SWAPO and ANC
1. The following is in response to your queries on SWAPO strength
and disposition and ANC presence/activities in Namibia, Botswana, and
improving
2. While SWAPO has up to 8,000 men in its armed force (called PLAN),
based primarily in Angola, at any given moment only 400 to 800 of these
are present in southern Angolan locations preparing for missions into
Namibia. The remainder are in more distant camps, with up to 4,000 of
them serving in conventional military formations fighting UNITA
insurgents in central Angola for the MPLA regime.
indicates a new deployment of SWAPO fighters to s
locations, taking advantage of both the recent South African withdrawal
as well as current MPLA pique with South Africa. also
indicates Angola-based SWAPO fighters may infiltrate into Botswana with ANC assistance.
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3. Attached is la
definitive DDI analysis oo bWAPU, Published late last year but overall
still quite valid. The map opposite page 1 is useful.
DECL OADR
DRV HUM 4-82
BY SIGNER
DCI
EXEC
RE~~25X1
0,-,6610
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 vG ,
Frederick L. Wet eying
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SECRET
4. The ANC military wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe, is increasingly active
in Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland as it sends new cadres into South
Africa. The ANC does not use Namibia, and its operations in Botswana,
Lesotho, and Swaziland have been somewhat hampered by recent expulsions
of ANC personnel by host governments who have acted to pre-empt a
possible South African attack. The numbers of guerrillas/terrorists
deployed operationally are relatively small, probably not exceeding 25 in
South Africa and 250 in Botswana, Lesotho, and Swaziland.
The ANC
also maintains a political network in each neighboring state (except
Namibia) which provides guerrilla support as well as recruitment,
propaganda, and quasi-official contact with the host government.
Attached is a brief DI assessment of ANC Presence in Botswana Lesotho
and Swaziland
A.
B.
C.
D.
SECRET
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SUBJECT: Response to DCI Questions on SWAPO, ANC
NIO/AF/FLWettering
DISTRIBUTION:
Orig - DCI
1 - DDCI
1 - ER
1 - C/NIC
1 - VC/NIC
1 - ALA/AF
2 - NIO/AF
1 - DDI Registry
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Directorate of Secret
Intelligence 25X1
Namibia: SW O's Army
Organization, actics,
and Prospects
A Research Paper
Secret
ALA 84-10103
October 1984
cwY 2 12
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SECRET
7 August 1985
The ANC in Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia
Botswana. The ANC has focused on improving its infrastructure in
Botswana since bein expelled from Mozambique following the Nkomati Accord
in March 1984.
on a buildup of ANC personnel in
Since the South African raid against ANC targets in Gaborone in June,
Botswana has taken some actions against the group, but not enough to
satisfy Pretoria.
-- As many as 100 ANC guerrillas may be scattered throughout
Botswana, mostly in Gaborone and other border towns.
-- the group plans to maintain a lower
protein Botswana an have guerrillas infiltrate South Africa
from Zambia via Botswana, using small transit facilities in the
latter.
Relations between the ANC and Botswana are approaching the breaking
point.
Even before the Nkomati Accord, ANC President Tambo had
criticized Botswana President Masire for going out of his way to
hinder the group's activities.
Botswana lacks the security resources to eradicate the ANC
presence, but may become more openly hostile toward the group to
ward off another South African raid.
Lesotho. Lesotho, which is completely surrounded by South African
terr'Mory, has long been a recruiting center for the ANC. No firm figures
exist on the number of ANC personnel there, but we estimate there are well
over 50.
-- In 1983, most ANC cadre were located in Maseru but fled Lesotho
when a South African raid appeared imminent;
the cadre eventually returned in smaller numbers, spread out
to towns other than the capital, and became much more clandestine.
The South Africans have been playing a cat and mouse game with Lesotho
Prime Minister Jonathan for the last few years.
-- South Africa needs more water in the future and a project is
under way to obtain it from Lesotho.
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-- Nonetheless, Pretoria despises Jonathan and is rankled over the
five Communist Embassies that have opened in Maseru since 1983.
Namibia. The ANC does not use Namibia in its military operations.
the group realizes that even a
SWAPO-controlled government in Namibia would not allow the ANC to operate
there because of its vulnerability to South African attacks.
Swaziland. Over 100 ANC guerrillas entered Swaziland from Mozambique
following ggi March 1984 Nkomati Accord which denied Mozambique to ANC
military. Subsequently the Swazi Government expelled many of these, but
in recent months the ANC has been reincreasing its presence in Swaziland.
notes that Swazi authorities estimate 39 ANC
cadre in Swaziland and that several arms caches have been
discovered in recent weeks.
-- Swazi security authorities meet with and cooperate with South
African security officials, but their capabilities to monitor and
arrest ANC members have proven limited.
SECRET
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