LETTER TO THE PRESIDENT FROM STEVE SYMMS AND MALCOLM WALLOP

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CIA-RDP87M00539R001101480007-7
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October 17, 1985
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 E SEC E~ ARIAT XECUTIV10U'r,14c tW STAT 3637 ,,o-s? Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO0110148000.7-7 STEVE'SYMMS' IDAHO EX_ l`. 'ZTnifeb Zfafez ,.ienafe October 17, 1985 The President The White House Washington, D.C. 20500 Dear Mr. President: 18:5- 2539/1 I note that my questions posed to you with Senator Wallop on_June 24, 1985 on Soviet violations of SALT I have not been answered. The Soviet SS-25 mobile ICBM is now judged by both the Soviets and the U.S. to be operational at several Soviet missile complexes previously housing old SS-7 ICBM's. You stated in your February 1, 1985 Report to Congress on Soviet SALT violations that Soviet SS-25 deployment at old ICBM complexes would be a "future violation" of SALT I. Does this now confirmed Soviet deployment violate the SALT I ICBM dismantling procedures, and also violate SALT I by defeating its object and purpose? When will these and other Soviet SALT violations be confirmed to Congress? Respectfully, Copies to: Secretary of State Secretary of Defense Chairman, JCS Director, CIA Director, ACDA Attachments : Letter of June 24, 1985 STEVE SYMMS Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 ,JCnUfcb %falez 'Senate WASHINGTON, D.C. 20510 June 24, 1985 The President The mite House Washington, D.C. 20500 Dear Mr. president: we would like you to know that the senate unanimously passed on June 11, 1985 an amendment to the State Department authorization bill requiring a Report to Congress on the Military Consequences of all Soviet SALT violations (enclosed). This report is long overdue, Raving been repeatedly requested from the Administration since March 1, 1984. We now request that this report be dealt with in the November 15, 1985 Repxort. We are enclosing our own analysis of the military consequences of the Soviet SALT violations as well as our own analysis of the 1978 JCS predictions on the effects of SALT II. We hope these will be of possible use by the JCS in writing their contribution to the required report of the Defense Department. We ask these be shown to Col. Dick Toy USAF and Commander Mariner Cox USN. We note that in your June 10, 1985 Report to Congress on Continued U.S. SALT II Compliance, the Administration stated that 'the Soviets have complied with the letter of SALT I' and that 'the Soviets have not violated the SALT I limits on ICBM and SLBM launchers.' These statements completely contradict our 1980 and 1984 Republican Party Platform charge that there was a Carter-Mondale Administration cover- up of Soviet SALT I violations. The 1980 Republican Party Platform stated: "The Republican Party deplores the attempts of the Carter Administration to cover-up Soviet non-compliance with arms control agreements... We pledge to end the Carter cover-up of Soviet violations of SALT I and II..." The 1984 Republican Party Platform repeated its condemnation of "Carter-Mondale efforts to cover-up Soviet violations of the 1972 Strategic Arms Limitation agreement..." Moreover, the June 10, 1985 statements also totally contradict your own GAC Report released to Congress on October 10, 1984. The GAC Report states that Soviet deployment of the heavy SS-19 ICBM to replace the light SS-11 was a circumvention of SALT I defeating its objective and purpose. it also states that the Soviets violated SALT I by exceeding the SALT I SLBM ceiling and violated the prohibition on deliberate interference with U.S. National Technical Means of verification by their extensive camouflage, concealment and deception. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 ongoing Soviet deployment of the mobile SS-16, SS-24, and SS-25 103Ms also defeats the object and purpose of SALT I, because it is inconsistent with the U.S. SALT I Unilateral Statement against mobile ICBM deployment. Further, reported deployment of operational SS-25 mobile ICBMs at the Yurya old SS-7 complex violates SALT I dismantling procedures for SS-7 ICBMs. In addition, you have confirmed that the Soviets are deploying long range SLCMs on their Stretch Yankee Class Submarine, circumventing the SALT I dismantling procedures. In sum, there are at least 8 violations of SALT I, five of which are confirmed by Presidential Reports to Congress. Several others have been confirmed by former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and former Secretary of Defense Melvin Laird. Additional violations of SALT I mentioned in the press include the following: 1. Failure to deactivate old ICBMs on time, and continuous falsification of official deactivation reports between between 1975 and 1982; 2. Keeping 18 SS-9 FOBS ICBMs at an ICBM test range illegally operational; 3. Violation of Brezhnev's 1972 pledge not to build mobile ICBMs; 4. Violation of Brezhnev's 1972 pledge to dismantle the entire G Class of strategic submarines; 5. Deploying SS-11 ICBMs at SS-4 and SS-5 soft sites for covert soft launch in violation of the ceiling on ICBM launchers. We request your comments on these additional Soviet SALT I violations. Could you please explain to us the reasons for these important contradictions of our 1980 and 1984 Republican Party Platforms and your own GAC Report as soon as possible? Sincerely, Copies to: Secretary of State Secretary of Defense Chairman, JCS Director, ACDA Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 AMENDMENT NTO. ------------ ------_______- i , -----~ Calendar No. - Purpose: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IN THE SENATE OF THE UNITED STATES- -------- Cong- ------- Sess. H.R.------------------------ SHORT TITLE (title) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Referred to the Committee on --------------- and ordered to be printed Ordered to lie on the table and to be printed INTENDED to be proposed by -- 2 --- - c ----------------------------- Viz : 1 At the end of the bill add the following new section: 10 11 12 13 "The Department of Defense shall prepare a report, to be submitted to Congress in both classified and unclassified form by July 15, 1985, that describes in detail the direct and indirect military consequences and effects of all Soviet violations of all arms control treaties and agreements." 14 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 February 28, 1985 CONGRESSIONAL' RECORD -SENATE 52363 does to those New Zealanders who have not Chiefs of Staff, and the Central Intelligence on SALT U. Using the sanitized general con- yet drifted off on cloud nine. Agency. Accordingly, as a courtesy to the clusions of this document, we can now in Executive Branch, we request that our un- 1985 evaluate retrospectively how accurate classified letter be reviewed by the above U.S. intelligence and planning assumptions SALT II WAS NOT IN THE NA- agencies. were In 1978, and make an overall assess- TIONAL SECURITY INTEREST It Is our intention to release our letter to ment of the actual national security effects OF THE UNITED STATES the Senate and to the public on March 1, of SALT 11 from a historical perspective. A Mr. SYMMS. Mr. President, I ask 1985, and we will do so at that time unless sanitized extract of general conclusions there are any specific objections from the from this JCS document is Attachment A. unanimous consent that two letters, Executive Branch. We also have various classified Defense one signed by myself and one by With warmest personal regards, Intelligence Agency estimates of Soviet, stra- myself and my distinguished col- Sincerely, tegic force structures, and classified Defense league, Senator JOHN P. EAST, of STL'VR SYMMS, Department tabulations of U.S. strategic North Carolina, be printed in the U.S. Senator. force programs. Our sanitized and declassi- RECORD. fled chart based upon our classified DIA The first letter, dFebruary 24, U.S. SENATE, and DOD sources are Attachment B. 1985, and addressed dated o the Pre:;idr.2 , Washington, DC, January 24, 1985. We recognize that our estimate of Soviet The f nmiRr.mT, forces at the. end of 1985 Is somewhni staters in my name and that of Scuutor 7%ec While Iluusc? higher than agreed Executive ilr[utch Nit- EAST: Washington, DC. tional Intelligence Estimates. This is largely It is our intention to release our letter to DEAR Mn. PRESIDENT: This is a sanitized, because we have tried to take account of the Senate and to the public on March 1, unclassified version of an important letter certain of the military effects of some of the 1985, and we will do so at that time unless we sent to you on January 18. 1985. classl- Soviet SALT II violations. Regretably, we there are any specific objections from the fied Top Secret Sensitive. have still not received the Executive Executive Branch. A crucial decision point approaches involy- Branch's assessment of Lite military hnplien- Mr. President, we have waited until ing whether or not the United States should Lions of Soviet SALT II violations which we continue to comply precisely with the unr?a- 1984. . Accordingly, the close of business today, February tified SALT II Treaty, which last year you requested have done done last our March own assessment, 1, . 1we 28, 1985, to hear from the executive certified to Congress that the Soviets were branch. We have received no commni- violating in multiple ways. We iwilcve that believe to be reasonable, and while soundly nication in writing and no specific ob- there needs to be a historical evaluation of based on classified sources, wholly snnlli,:cQ the negative effects on American national and unclassified. In on je from the executive branch. security of U.S. unilateral compliance with Several assumptions underlying our est i. In fact, we a are not t aware aware of any ex- the unratified SALT II Treaty. We have mate chart should be specified at the oui.sei. First ecutive branch objections at all. We carefully conducted such an evaluation, and Fand most significantly, we are count- believe wg have given the executive we wish to make It public. In sum, we have ing up to about 400 Backfire bombers and branch ample time to review our found that, there is now historical evidence their weapons In the Soviet force totals for letter. that the Senate Armed Services Committee the end of 1985. We believe this Is complete- Accordingly, we are releasing our let- was correct in December 1979, when It con- ly reasonable. In 1979, General Rowny testi- ters in the knowledge that they are cluded by overwhelming majority vote that fied that the Soviets would have about 400 wholly unclassified, have been careful- the proposed, unequal, destabilizing SALT Backfire bombers by the end of 1985, and ly researched in open sources, that all II 'T'reaty "was not in the national security yv oeu d yourself on stated Inn the 1nationally tcle- data given can be supported from open interest of the United States." "SALT II is illegal, because the law of the sources and are necessary for Senate I. OVERALL SUMMARY lan8, passed by Congress, says we cannot and public debate on the unratified In fact, Mr. President, our analysis con- accept a treaty in which we are not equal, SALT II Treaty. firms that the Soviet Union has built up its and we're not equal in this treaty for one addition, Mr. President, I ask strategic forces during the period of the reason alone: our B-52 bombers are consid- In unanimous consent Mr. to have printed in 1979 SALT II Treaty through the year of ered to be strategic weapons; their Backfire 1985 to a level much higher than the Joint bombers are not." the RECORD an excerpt from Alerting Chiefs of Staff predicted in 1978 that the This is a strong indication that the America: The Papers of the Commit- Soviets would have by the end of 1985, even Reagan Administration should count the tee on the Present Danger. This ex- if no SALT II Treaty had been signed by Soviet Backfire bomber in its SALT II force cerpt is a series of unclassified esti- the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Since 1979, estimates, as well as in our START and mates of United States and Soviet Soviet Strategic Nuclear Delivery Vehicles "umbrella talks" proposals. The reason that strategic forces first published in 1979 increased by about one fourth, and Soviet you wanted to count Backfire as an inter- nuclear warheads more than tripled by the continental bomber in 1980 is that U.S. In- our They most emi- end of 1985. In contrast, the U.S. will have telligence agreed that it had intercontinen- during by the a Mr. SALT SALTl II I Nitze, debate. strategic forces by the end of 1985 even tal range and refueling capabilities. The nent and distinguished arms control lower than the Joint Chiefs of Staff predict- 1981 first edition of Soviet Military Power expert, and former Director of Policy ed in 1978 that the U.S. would have by the states on page 63 that the range of the Studies for the committee. end of 1985, even within SALT II con- Backfire bomber is in excess of 8,900 kilome- These estimates demonstrate that str?aints. In fact, U.S. forces are lower today tees, and on page 02 it states that the range our own estimates are unclassified, be- than they were in 1979. of the Bison bomber is only 8,000 kilome- cause our own estimates and data are II. SOURCES AND ANALYTIC ASSUMPTIONS ters. The Bison counts as an intercontinen- in fact derived from Paul Nitze's. We These significant conclusions about the tal bomber in SALT IT, and the longer have great respect for Mr. Nitre, who adverse impact on American national securi. ranged Backfire should therefore also is now the Chief Advisor on Arms Con- ty resulting from U.S. unilateral compliance count. (Backfire also has longer range than trot to our distinguished Secretary of with the unratified SALT lI Treaty are two some variants of the U.S. R-52 bomber, all of five conclusions we have derived from our of which count in SALT II.) Further, the objection, the mate- analysis of authoritative, official, classified Soviets tried to deceive the U.S. on whether Stale, There George being Shultz. documents. We have carefully santitized the Backfire was an intercontinental rials were ordered to be printed in the and declassified our analysis and conclu- bomber, despite Its intercontinental range RECORD, as follows: sions. Our data is bounded by unclassified and refueling capabilities, another reason U.S. SCNA?rI. and authoritative data. Our unclassified for counting it In SALT II. The strategic sig- Washington, DC, February 24, 1985. conclusions confirm your own statement on nificance of counting Backfire in SALT II is The PRESIDENT, August 18, 1980: "I cannot, however, agree that this force alone can deliver about 30 The White House, to any treaty, including the SALT II Treaty, per cent of the huge Soviet megatonnage Washington, DC. which in effect legitimitizes the conaanu? advantage. making Backfire a formidable DEAR MR. PRESIDENT: I believe that our at- ation of a one-sided arms build-up." second strike force. tached letter is completely unclassified. It We have long had in our possession a clas- Second, we are counting In Soviet forces contains only data already in the public sified document written by the Joint Chiefs at the end of 1985 at least 100 88-18 mobile domain, and it analyzes this d[Fta to make of Staff on January 4. 1978 describing illus- ICBM launchers, because on January 23, judgments which are bounded by already trative U.S. and Soviet strategic forces 1984, you informed Congress that the unclassified and authoritative estimates. through 1985, with and without a SALT II mobile 88-10 ICBM is "probably deployed" Our letter does make reference to data Treaty. This is an Important historical docu- operationally. Open sources indicate that ^:ginating in the Defense Department, the ment, because it was used in 1978 and 1979 the Soviets have probably deployed over 100 Defense Intelligence Agency, the Joint in the U.S. decision-making and negotiating 88-10s. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 S2364 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD --'SENATE February 28, 1985 vivt Third, as required by Article VI 1 of the 3. IN 1978, the JCS estimated that U.S. ed deceptively order to pr tertho same SALT II Treaty itself, we are counting at SNDVs would increase by 2% with SALT II, programs from , while ng the US. c Delivery SVethose Soviet hicles (SNDVs "in the by the end of 1985. In actuality. U.S. SNDVs SALT sI lwould consttrain~Sovieti programs. rmed ti- the lear end final stage of construction" and "undergo- decreased 8bthe out 99S% estimated d of 1085.. We Yh avA 6 ee i to to theat threet in teethe warheads would increase by 61% with SALT Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Congress were t 4. In version." Th, repair, e press reports m con- Ing ndre o press pl ym nt impend- II, and increase by about 95% without SALT not aware in 1972 of this evidence of Soviet silo and mobile deployment of the II by the and of 1985. In actuality, U.B. war- intentions to deploy prohibited systems Soviet 138 are authoritative ctive and u88-25 nclassified ICBMs. And reports there that heads remained almost constant, rising by fully in the face of SALT I constraints. The are SS-24 and F.-25 are 9 .only about 2%. Senate Intelligence Committee confirmed in the on ( and R. Military arc In r. 1984, Pro. In warn, during the 1979-1985 period of late 1979 that key evidence on Soviet com- W0 ction Soviel t modest e of a about SALT 11, Soviet SNDVs increased by about pliance intentions had In fact been still- have estimated a modest force of one fourth, but the warheads carried tripled pressed. Consequently, we believe it reason- Anti-Bal- 100 of these by la 1 nally, we have 1985. through Soviet exploitation of their huge able to conclude that the SALT I AFiwarhead capacities demonstrated sed the onximumre throw-weight advantage by MIRVing and iistic Missile Treaty and the SALT I Interim ported e d Soviet ICBMs and because ALCM loading. Our summary conclusions Offensive Agreement were ratified and ap- M t"Hie a that ICBMs anSLBMs, nal way are fully consistent with Defense Secretary proved in August and September 1972 under we tea that rthis eal is Soviet tile only rational way Weinberger's atat4:suont In the Washington the proved I pretense tSA1;1 I would under te A I X arill. It measure hshould the real d. however, ever, t. Times on December 20, 1984: the constrain Soviet that It counting nbe noted, however, that we are .-Improvements and additions to the Second, a the basis of our Sanitized JCS not cotilarge numbers s refire and Soviet missile force continue at a frighten- and SeDIA/DoV cond, on the f hcompared stockpiled ICBMs and under c, construction, ing pace, even though we have added SALT a U.B. aggregate of we have a ve c the end strategic submarines under ngetruction II restraints on top of SALT I agreements. the to the maximum force level at thend of 19 5 t CS for the U.B. predict- not . many additional long range bombers The Soviet Union has built more of the big 1986 t from k- non- nfunctionally distinguishable nuclear warheads capable of destroying US. they the JCS SALT 197 II. This U.B. In 1985 SALT-accountable Soviet bombers. We are missiles in their concrete silos than we had 1985 also ignoring Soviet strategic SLCMs, where initially predicted they would build, even SALT II aggregate is 2,500/18,000. they Hence, hold our estimates a huge advantage, in lac a C cantl . without any SALT agreement. We now con- By complying unilaterally with and unra- underestimate the full do vet t significantly gnificantly front precisely the situation that the SALT tilled SALT II Treaty which you have certi- ndcrparing the ni zed Jthreat. process was intended to prevent." fled the Soviets have violated In four ways. Comarz the sanitized CS chart with IV. DETAILED CONCLUSIONS the U.S. therefore forfeited potential de- the have the following wingt (attached), w con- We would now present five more detailed ployment over the six years of SALT II of clusions expressed the following summary con- conclusions derived from a careful comp- about 500 SNDVs carrying about 8,700 war- age tabular and in percent- son of the sanitized 1978 JCS chart and our heads. This is a measure of the security age e starementent f f stat ormat: son sanitized DIA/DOD chart for late 19115. costs of our unilateral compliance and de III. SUMMARY or THE ErrCCTS OF SALT iI ON First, we estimate that by the end of 1965, facto unilateral disltrmanu?nt and nppensv- UNITED STATES Axn SOVIET STRATNIC FORCES when the unratified SALT II Treaty is due meat. These 500 SNDVs carrying 8,700 war- .,,,n heads could have bolstered deterrence and Note on declassification: These estimates Strategic Nuclear Delivery Venrcies, carry- are rounded off. Using reasonable assume- ing about 13,200 warheads. But the 1978 Third, it is interesting to compare these Lions and available unclassified data, Paul JCS chart reveals that the JCS estimated U.S. forfeitures through SALT II compli- Nitae's unclassified 1979 estimates published that the highest force levels that the Sovi- ance with the force levels the Soviets will in 1984 (See Attachment C) provide both ets could achieve by the end of 1985, in the probably achieve by the end of 1985 by lower and upper bounds on Soviet force absence of the SALT 11 Treaty, was about SALT II Breakout. Considering the highest levels. U.S. force levels for 1985 have been 3,000 SNDVs carrying about 11,000 war- SeND iwalrhe f aggrreega a th the JCS pro- officially published without classification. heads. The JCS in 1978 were evidently relying 1985 within about 950 RNDVs the about d 85 dd 1973-1979: U.S. Faces ...................................... 2.053.................... 8,500. Soviel Fates (Pad Nitres esli- 2,504 .................... 5,105, as ousted la mMiier Nov counlnig). Maximum estimated m 1978 for 1985, within SALT II: US. Faces ........................................ aissl 2.000.......... Ahod 14,000. Soviet Faces..................................... 2,509.................... Abed 8,500. Maximum estimated in 1978 For 1985, no SALT It: U.S. Faea..... _ ................................. About 2.500.._..... A" 18.000. Soviet Forces ..................................... Ahurt 3,000......... Abed 11,000. Estimated end at 1985: U.S. Forces ........................................ Ahod 2,000......... 8,300. Swan Faces ..................................... Ahool 3100......... Atoll 13200. n b (SWs 2.246)... (lw la : Pam's 1985 asarmrkt SSot 00111101- I Wwconl,ienlal SY.klne 2.646 .................... 12.928. c e nave a upon CIA estimates of Soviet forces for 19 unconstrained by SALT it. These CIA esti- 4.700 warheads above those levels. Thus the mates, however, will turn out to significant- Soviets are much higher than estimated ly underestimate the force levels the Soviet even if they were adhering to. SALT It. will probably have achieved by late 1985. As Moreover, the Soviet increment above SALT we know, the CIA significantly underesti- II ceilings Is comparable to the increment mated Soviet strategic forces throughout the U.S. forfeited by agreeing to comply the 19608 and early 1970s. unilaterally with the unratified SALT 11 Comparing the sanitized JCS chart to our Treaty. sanitized 1985 estimate chart, we find that Fourth, considering SNDV/warhead levels the Soviets will probably be about 200 estimated for the Soviets by the JCS as of SNDVs and about 2.000 warheads above the 1978, the Soviets will have added about 700 highest levels that the JCS in 1978 estimat? SNDVs carrying about 8,700 warheads ed for the Soviets at the end of 1985 with- during the 1978-79-1985 period of SALT II. outs SALT II Treaty. We believes new This is a very significant increase in the Team B critique of CIA estimates Is needed, threat to America To repeat, the Soviets in because the 1978 competitive estimates evi- creased their SNDVs by a fourth, and tri? denWy did not Improve the accuracy of CIA pled their warheads. As you stated 1. A1,r In your ur S Wits with 3 Atcm,s W. estimates. IiKlude 300 new OM launchas, new 3,292 .................... 17,181. This is the clearest evidence yet that the bomoet, Plops Spud maxumrm MIRV hadmgs. Soviets did not allow their strategic Pro- gram to be affected in any way by SALT 11. been ..Break. h ave and that since Lvov heY Out" of SALT it. We recall that there is i ns SUMMARY STATEMENTS strong classified evidence that the SALT I (Note.-These calculations are approxi- interim Agreement of 1972 similarly did not mate.) affect the Soviet ICBM and SLBM deploy- 1. In 1978, the JCS estimated that Soviet ment plans throughout the 1970s. But some within with SVs would decrease by over about 10% of this evidece was long ALT II, and increase by about 15% the Intelligence Community, and a analy- without SALT II by the end of 1985. In ac- sis is not widely known. We call your atten-tled tuality, Soviet SNDVs probably Increased by Ttion he to the June. Strategic 97 Planning CIA tudycen itl d about 25% by the end of 1985. 2. In 1978, the JCS estimated that Soviet SALT (title unclassified, study classified warheads would increase by roughly over Top Secret Codeword Sensitive). This docu- 90% with SALT II, and increase by over meat has been made available to us, and 150% without SALT II by the end of 1985. should be studied by the entire Senate. We In actuality, Soviet warheads probably in- urge you to become familiar with it as well. creased by over 200% by the ebd of 1985. This study also indicates that the late This is our most important. conclusion. Soviet President Brezhnev himself negottat- January 9, 1985 press conference, is nothing but a limitation on how fast you Increse weapons.' Fifth. the Carter era JCS under General Davy Jones planned to retain all U.S. Titan ICBMs and B-52D bombers in the U.S. SNDV aggregate through It. But in addition to the labove noted U.S. forfeiture under SALT II of 500 SNDVs car. rying 5,700 warheads, the JCS under the Reagan Administration will have unilateral. 52D systeemsaby the end of 1995. and in addi? tion, all 160 Polaris SLBMs, for a total of 292/500 SNDVs/warheads the U.S. has uni? laterally deactivated during U.S. unilateral SALT II compliance. Moreover, the Carter JCS planned 250 MX ICBMs which were to be survivable, and you plan only 100 vulncr able MX. In total. 612 SNDVs existing or planned carrying 6.800 warheads have beer, Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 February 28, 1985 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE S2365 Unilaterally scrapped under the Reagan Ad- eta are violating in multiple ways. We are ministration. extemel co d h V. RESTATEMENT In sum, the Soviet strategic build-up from 1978 tl rpgh 1985 occurred ostensibly within SALT IT. but was in fact much greater than that protected for the Soviets without SALT 11. Our conclusion confirms Secretary of Defense Weinberger's statement in the FY 1985 Defense Posture Statement: "The SALT II Agreement would have codified that unilateral Soviet buildup and allowed additional growth in Soviet forces, therby permitting even further deterioration of the military balance." The Soviets seem to believe that SALT Is a zero sum game, with them as the winners and the U.S. as the losers. A Soviet foreign policy expert, speaking for the Kremlin Ieasler'ahip, wrote In 11171): "Signing the (SALT' 1) Interim Agreement (was a) victory of the Soviet Union in the arms race . (the) 1972 Moscow Agree- ment, like the Vladivostok Agreement, noted the defeat of the American strategic arms race policy." (Stanislav Tumkovsky Problems of History. Moscow. 1970) Because Lite 1974 Vladivostok Agreement was the basis for the SALT II Treaty and was incorporated into SALT II, the Soviets evidently believe that both SALT I and 0'AUI' 11 were victories for the Soviet Union and defeats for the United States. Finally, although we recognize and fully support the need to protect intelligence sources and methods and defense informa- tion about our own forces, we also believe that it is Imperative for the American people to have a general understanding of the massive increase in Soviet nuclear arms that has occurred during the period of al- leged Soviet adherence to SALT IT, and that they know also the enormous advantages which the U.S. has denied itself through a policy of vescillation based on strict unilat- eral compliance with an unratified treaty our opponents are known to be violating at will. Continued silence on these matters Is I t l n o erable. That is why we have sanitized and declassified our analysis and conclu- sions. The adverse strategic balance entails both political and military risks. As relative Soviet power continues to increase, the Sovi- lone 18, 1979 End of 1985 U.S. Swint us. Snelet strategic strategic shalegic slraleec Faces fags laces laps ets fully expect the U.S. and its allies to low 9000's ............. 2,053 12,504 2,130 12.246 mov i i nereas ugly toward accommodation and appeasement. ncerne y t at the Soviets nave built up their strategic forces during the period of SALT II through late 1985 to a much higher level than we though they would even withou SALT IT. With warmest personal regards, Sincerely, STEVE SYMMS. U.S. Senator. JOHN EAST, U.S. Senator. A. Maximum U.S.-Soviet Strategic Forces, 1985, Within And Outside SALT 11 Treaty Ceilings, as predicted by JCS in January 1978: wilMin SAI I N -N1110. asnet SAI1 N "Iran Wi I!MS N, 19115 NIDV's...... died 2,000 2.258 alas 2.500 AM 3,000 WNW*.. AM 14,000 AM 8,500 add 11,000 Lie 11,000 Nine N awbas are NOW oil N saryntp of "died data AN Site) last a s arithlr ft Mils of Paw Pats't pdww a*avla, we Bac*fa, witilmtia0ll bias, all papa Piece Pis aaaaad. B. U.S.-Soviet Strategic Forces, Estienat- ed for Late 1985: 5NOV's .................... _............................ "bad 2,000 abooi "3,200 WXM*.._ ..................................... _... AM 9,300 stew " 13,200 I Theme 1.1* awwstale Not Moe Saul tMat because soloed. Tolle and 1101141011 0M+1wwds, rid MNo CMPK Williams! SLIMI'S a ie ndt FM we CAWS a asd under oautrretisa Ceads be 400 Macau extol 11.1it a beaus with 3 ACCM's W, I00 anode yS-16 (Sri fiwl slate M aaxlrrction, neneaspn ad arodrwlaliars, I00 985silo sad a ids SS 24 rw SS 25 ICBM's, rsusinam daaoaslnbd IC85 and SHIN 85V Machias. Nato: A8 use ue are nailed oN for saritintiar M dassilied data. f slimaMd Serial 1 waifads are below Pau Nita s 1985 wrhead atlaata, 8 Batkbe and rNw-0eacMalad lass re added end grape ly loaded. C. U.S.-Soviet Strategic Forces, 1979 and 1985, within SALT II Treaty Ceilings, Com- mittee on the Present Danger, 8 November VI. REQUESTS ' WIN* Baclfue and its weapons. Cowls MANS incorrecty as "depend eat wrheaa. In conclusion, we have several questions and requests. First, we ask whether you and your national security departments and agencies are as concerned about our analysis and conclusions as we are? We request their comments. Second, we request that you con- sider our analysis, conclusions and attached Snare: Akrtn`` Narita, The Papers of the Committee si the Present Danger, Ed. by trans Tyr*. Prgama Braoty's, Washinglcm, 1984, pp. 143-158. Total Scsi) SNDV's/ warheads charts and amendments in your torllu om. Non-SALT 0 C?n ace farces bschelt 400 Backlae benders with 2 ALCMs ing decision about whether to continue U.S. cash .............................. 2.646/12,928 ........................... unilateral compliance with the unratified Indrdc 254 missiles awl hpubrs ad dexlvakd 2,800/13,542 SALT II Treaty. Third, we request that Include 300 new ICBM Ira?len, prow ad Your Administration prepare witnesses to ffiMilWA OW loaeM new .................. 3,292/17,188 send to h i ear ngs on the Constitutional as- pects of the treaty-making powers as ap. plied to arms control. We are considering holding such hearings. Finally, we also intend to seek another Senate vote on the merits of continued U.S. unilateral compli- ance with the unratified SALT 11 Treaty (See Attachments). We want to support your defense budget. request and your strategic modernization program, including MX, but but only in the context of U.S. disavowal of unilateral com- pliance with the unratified SALT II Treaty which you have already confirmed the Sovi- FURTHER UNCLASSIFIED DATA SUPPORTING OUR CONCLUSIONS 1. Robert McFarlane stated in a recent public speech at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco that since 1975 the. Soviets had constructed "more than 10,800 addition. al nuclear weapons." This would give the Soviets 13,540 warheads in 1985, which is above our estimate. 2. As Paul Nitze accurately predicted pub- licly on March 14, 1979: "During the span of Lite (SALT II) agreement, numbers of nucle- ar warheads can be expected to rise by 300 percent on the Soviet side, in comparison to about 50 percent for the U.S." This is above our estimates. 3. As Paul Nitze accurately predicted pub- licly on October 1. 1979: "If the SALT II Treaty were to approach expiration in 1925 without replacement and without a surviv- able and durable U.S. IC13M component. I tie U.S. could face unprecedented dangers. We would then have to take seriously both the then-existing degree of Soviet nuclear stra- tegic superiority, and Soviet superiority In break-out potential." 4. Further, Paul Nitze again accurately predicted Soviet forces publicly on May 16, 1979: "From the beginning of 1978 to the end of 1085, Lite number of Soviet warheads will have doubled; ours will have increased by half ... the capability of their weapons 1.11 kaauek out hurslenetl targols, sects its nil.-, site silos, will have increased tenfold ... by the end of 1985, tinder the limits of SALT Ii, (U.S. prompt counter force hard (nrgei capability) will be an eighth of that of the Soviet Union .... This will be compounded by the fact that they will have twice as nanny hard targets as we, and their targets will be, on average, twice as hard as ours." This is the same as our estimate. Nitze added ominously: "A more sober evalliaflon of 1"he balailev, at a Ilnae W114,11 It is too Irate to reverse Lrends, could result in forced accommodation to the Soviet Union leading to a situation of global retreat and Finlandization." 5. As Nitze again accurately predicted pub- licly on May 16, 1979: "Under SALT II ... the capability of Soviet missiles to destroy hardened military targets is expected to rise by 1,000 percent." AMENDMENT -- Add at the end of the bill the following new section: "SEC. -. Notwithstanding any other provi- sion of law or of this Act, no national securi- ty program of the United States shall be terminated, impeded, or delayed in order to comply with any provision of the unratified SALT II Treaty, unless and until the Presi- dent shall have certified to Congress that the Soviet Union is in full compliance with SALT II.". AMENDMENT -- Add at the end of the bill the following new section: "SEc, -. Notwithstanding any other provi- sion of law or of this Act. no funds author- i-red or appropriated by this or any other Act may be obligated or expended to deacti. vate or remove from operational service any Minuteman ICBM or any Poseidon missile or missile submarine for any purpose includ- ing specifically that of complying with any provision of the unratified SALT II Treaty. unless the President shall have certified to Congress prior to any such deactivation or removal from service that tht; Soviet Union is in full compliance with SALT II.". ALERTING AMERICA (Edited by Charles Tyroler IT, Introduction by Max M. Kampelman) APPENDIX The following charts and graphs were pre- pared by Paul H. Nitze and distributed as appendices to the above statement. APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 12 (Prepared by Paul H. Nitze, 1 November 1977-8 November 1979) Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 S 7670 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE June $0, 1984 from coming into this country to rob the minds of our youth. All of that is being held hostage, Mr. President, in this legislation. So I just want the President and my colleagues in the Senate to know that when this matter, House Joint Resolu- tion 492, comes up next Monday, this Senator will move that we recede from our item in disagreement with the House, the $21 million in covert assist- ance for the Contras in Nicaragua. I want to make that clear to my col- leagues, because it is the only way we will obtain this legislation in time for the summer youth employment pro- grams in America, the nutritional pro- grams for the feeding of our Infants and mothers in this country, to answer the needs of hungry folks in Africa who are suffering through the worst drought in many decades In that im- poverished area. I am sorry we are going to do this on a Monday. I hope that my friends and colleagues will hear the sound of my voice and will come here next Monday, a day when our attendance is notori- ously rather small from time to time, because I think this is a fundamental- ly important issue. I hope that every Member of the Senate will rise above party and think of this great country of ours and cast his or her vote with the sense of re- sponsibility and integrity of purpose that every Senator always should employ. I say to my friends in the Senate that we should send this conference report back to the House, concurring in all the 22 items in agreement, or in technical disagreement, and dropping the one item of disagreement, the $21 million in covert assistance to Nicara- gua. I have talked to many Members of the House, and there are none who be- lieve there is any possibility that these funds can survive and that this legisla- tion can survive if the 22 items of Im- portance to the country are held hos- ta?e to that covert assistance question. Mr. President, I think the minority leader for the interest he has shown in this matter. I thank the majority leader. He is a fine man, a considerate and fair man, who has bent over back- ward to accommodate this Senator. But the administration is in error in persisting in trying to hold this hos- tage to that one question, which we have thoroughly debated here. I put the Senate on notice that next Monday, we will urgently request our colleagues to do the right thing, the responsible thing, to pass this measure without the item of disagreement that cannot possibly survive in the hands of the House. ROUTINE MORNING BUSINESS The PRESIDING OFFICER. Under the previous order, there will now be a period for the transaction of routine morning business until 11:45 a.m., with statements therein limited to 2 min- utes each. SOVIET STRATEGIC ARMS LIMI- TATION TREATY VIOLATIONS Mr. SYMMS. Mr. President, today we live in a very dangerous world. The Soviet Union is violating every major arms control agreement in force today. These Soviet arms control violations have paid very handsome dividends for the Soviets. They have allowed the So- viets to gain overall strategic superiori- ty in both offensive and defensive ca- pabilities. In fact, according to De- fense Secretary Weinberger, the Sovi- ets "have stepped up their own strate- gic modernization program." Using only the Strategic Arms Limi- tation Treaty [SALT] counting rules, the Soviets now have an overwhelming 6-to-1 strategic offensive superiority over the United States, a true first- strike potential so long feared by our strategists. The Soviets are 10 years ahead of the United States in strategic offensive capabilities. This Soviet first- strike potential grows evermore omi- nous each year, and its utility for po- litical blackmail and intimidation Is even more apparent. The Soviet ad- vantages derived from their SALT cheating are even greater. The Soviet first-strike capability throws an ever darkening shadow over all the world's politics, and Is a direct result of the Soviet violations of the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty [SALT]. And now we have recent revelations from defense officials that the Soviet Union is also 10 years ahead of the United States in defensive antiballistic missile capability, and may in just a year's time be able to defend over one- third-a significant proportion-of both its population and offensive forces from the U.S. retaliatory deter- rent. The Soviets may also at any time launch the first laser antiballistic mis- sile battle station into space, where they already have had an operational antisatellite capability for over a decade. These Soviet offensive and defensive advantages threaten the credibility of the U.S. retaliatory deterrent, which has preserved the world's peace for 38 years. If the Soviets can threaten a devastating first strike, and then also threaten to defend against a signifi- cant part of the U.S. retaliatory re- sponse, deterrence is gravely weak- ened. Peace could be in jeopardy, and the United States is not only vulnera- ble to Soviet first strike, but more im- portantly, because of this vulnerability we are increasingly subject to Soviet attempts at intimidation through nu- clear blackmail. President Reagan stated in a press conference on March 31, 1982: The Soviet Union does have a definite margin of superiority-enough so that there is risk. and that is what I have called a window of vulnerability. President Reagan also stated on March 23, 1983: The Soviets have enough accurate and powerful nuclear weppons to destroy virtually all of our missiles on the ground. President Reagan then added that the Soviets have a ?'? ? ? present margin of superiority." The Soviet Defense Minister, the late Marshal Grechko. stated openly as long ago as March 1975: The correlation of forces [i.e., the strate- gic nuclear balance] has changed In favor of socialism and to the detriment of imperial- ism. A Soviet military journal, "Red Star" stated threateningly in January 1980. With respect to the military balance. the correlation of forces has shifted, once and for all and irrevocably. As the Joint Chiefs of Staff conced- ed ominously in their military posture statement to Congress for fiscal year 1985: The Soviets have now developed strategic offensive and defensive rapabilittes that erode the credibUify of the U.S. deterrent and increase the risk that Soviet leaders would consider launching a surprise nuclear attack. (Italic added.) The JCS concedes that "the Soviets hold a distinct advantage in terms of total numbers of strategic offensive forces," and that "Soviet strategic forces are more effective than those of the United States." The JCS have also conceded that the Soviets have a "sur- vivable superior offensive capability." The U.S. Air Force has stated offi- cially to Congress that there is "a do- stabilizing imbalance between U.S. and Soviet strategic forces." Defense Secretary Weinberger stated to the Senate on May 24, 1984: The Soviet military buildup, both quanti- tative and qualitative, has produced a major shift in the nuclear and conventional bal- ance. Secretary of State Shultz stated on May 14, 1984: "Arms control will simply not survive in conditions of in- equality." America's strategic decline has not even bottomed out yet. Our military leaders have been telling us for several years that even after all our currently planned strategic offensive modcrniva- tion programs are deployed by 1990, we will still not be able to regain stra- tegic offensive parity with the Soviets, and this assumes that Congress will fund them. Thus we are over 10 years behind the Soviets in strategic offen- sive capability. If we are also 10 years behind In ABM's and space lasers and antisatellites as well, then it is an urgent national security priority to bolster deterrence and to quickly ac- quire defenses. The role of the false doctrine of arms control in speeding and assuring the U.S. strategic decline needs at long last to be carefully examined. The his- torical evidence Indicates that arms control has been used as an instru- ment In the Soviet game plan for stra. tegic supremacy. As President Reagan has pointed out, our strategic nuclear Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 June 20, 1984 . CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE S 7671 megatonnage is now only one quarter of what it was In 1965, and the number of U.S. nuclear warheads has declined by one-third of what it was in 1965. Arms control has unilaterally re- strained U.S. strategic programs, while allowing all Soviet strategic programs to progress unhindered. In a real sense, arms control has been an enor- mous Soviet strategic deception, and a very successful deception indeed. In contrast, the Joint Chiefs of Staff have stated that "The Soviets have in- creased their strategic warheads more than threefold since 1973." Actually, Soviet warheads have in- creased over fourfold since 1973. The April 1984 edition of the DOD's Soviet Military Power also states that "with the (Soviet] deployment of new nucle- ar weapons systems their stockpile megatonnage has again started to rise." Mr. President, the relentless momen- tum of the Soviet strategic nuclear weapons buildup, which started before 1962, is destined to continue into the 1990's and beyond. This Soviet strate- gic buildup, unprecedented In history, has not been constrained by existing strategic arms limitation treaties. The Defense Department has testified to Congress recently that "this Soviet buildup of strategic nuclear forces shows no sign of slowing." The De- fense Department added that "we see no letup in the rate of deployment of Soviet [strategic] systems over the next ten years." As Dr. Eugene Rostov, former Reagan administration Arms Control Director, has written about the first SALT agreements of 1972 and the decade of the 1970's culminating in SALT II in 1979: The SALT I Agreements and the process of negotiating SALT II did not prevent the worst decade of the Cold War or the ex- traordinary build-up of the Soviet nuclear arsenal. And Dr. Richard DeLauer, Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Development in the Reagan Defense Department, has testified to Congress: The Soviets In fact never slowed or even perturbed their strategic development and deployment programs in spite of detente. active arms control negotiations, or the SALT Agreements. Mr. President, Assistant Secretary of Defense Perle recently testified to Congress that there has been almost a 75-percent increase in Soviet nuclear warheads aimed at the United States since the SALT II Treaty was signed in 1979. Perle added that the Soviets have deployed 3.850 ballistic missile warheads since 1979, and this does not even count refines. This means that the Soviets have almost doubled their nuclear warheads aimed at us since former President Carter's SALT II Treaty was signed. Using only SALT counting rules, the Soviets now have over 895 more strate- gic nuclear delivery vehicles than the United States and over 1,000 more warheads than the United States. And this does not even count the effects of their SALT violations. The strategic impact of their SALT violations gives the Soviets a force an order of magni- tude larger. The Soviets also have over 30 strategic offensive programs under development for future deployment. Thus SALT II did not stablize Lite strategic balance. It did Just the oppo- site. But in stark contrast, since 1980, the Reagan administration has gone in Just the opposite direction from the Soviets. The Reagan administration has unilaterally deactivated over 292 strategic delivery vehicles carrying over 500 warheads counted in the SALT II Treaty. The United States has thus deactivated gratuitously over 33 percent of existing American strate- gic megatonnage. Indeed, the Reagan administration plans to continue these unilateral de- activations in unilateral U.S. compli- ance with the unratified -SALT II Treaty by dismantling two Poseidon submarines carrying 32 SLBM's and 320 warheads, and 90 B-520's carrying over 1,000 air-launched cruise missiles. The Reagan administration has also significantly reduced the MX ICBM program and the B-IB bomber pro- gram, by one-half and two-thirds, re- spectively, below previously planned deployment levels. And the Reagan administration plans to completely cancel the only two U.S. strategic of- fensive systems now being produced for operational deployment the ALCM-B and the Trident I SLBM. This Reagan strategic cutback is part of a larger trend in declining U.S. stra- tegic capability. As I have noted, since 1965, the number of U.S. strategic nu- clear warheads has declined by one- third, and their megatonnage by three quarters. Thus the United States has been exercising unilateral restraint for almost 20 years. A top Reagan defense official recent- ly stated to the Senate that: The President's Strategic Modernization Program won't match the Soviet buildup that first.became visible twelve years ago after we digned the SALT I argeements. (Emphasis added.) This statement seems to mean that even President Reagan has conceded strategic superiority to the Soviets after 1990. The Secretary of Defense stated to Senators on April 5, 1984, that he is "deeply concerned" about the military implications of the Soviet SALT viola- tions. He added that "Far more serious are the implications for the overall de- fense posture of the United States rel- ative to that of the Soviet Union." Caspar Weinberger was thus likewise implying that Soviet SALT violations are another sign that the Unite'I States has conceded strategic superior- ity to the Soviets. This conclusion Is strengthened by Weinberger's added judgment that: . Some possible outcomes of an effceiive (Soviet) ABM system or a new mobile ICBM could provide the Soviets with a decisive edge in strategic offensive and defensive ca- pabilities .. ," (Emphasis added.) This statement suggests also that the developing Soviet strategic superi- ority will soon be "decisive," because the Soviets are indeed developing an effective ABM and a new mobile ICBM both of which will be operat ton- al before the late 1980's. As a top Nixon administration arms control official wrote as long ago as 1971: If, after a reasonable period. SALT negot I- ations prove unproductive, or If the U.S.S.R. resumes land-based ICBM deploy- ments or moves to modernize or expand its Moscow ARM system, Lite United States would take whatever steps are necesanry to maintain its strategic deterrent, Including possible deployment of a more advnueed Hard Site Defense-(H8D defense of land. based ICBMs. (Emphasis added.) Unfortunately, all these conditions set in 1971 are now being met. Strate- gic arms treaties and negotiations are broken, the Soviets are deploying land mobile ICBM's, expanding and mod- ernizing their ABM, and yet, the United States is doing very little to maintain Its strategic deterrent. As Defense Secretary Weinberger has stated to Congress: Unilateral Soviet deployment of an ad. vanced system capable of countering West- ern ballistic missiles-added to the Soviela' already impressive air and other defense ca- pabilities-would have maJor, adverse conse- quences for deterrent stability and for the security of the United Stags and Its allies. Juxtaposed against this ominous statement are the following Judgments for the April 1984 edition of the DOD's Soviet Military Power: The U.S.S.R. has an improving potential for large-scale deployment of modernized ABM defenses well beyond the 100 launcher ABM treaty limits. The Soviets have devel- oped a rapidly deployable AHM system (I.e.. Lite ABM-3I for which sites could be built in months instead of years ... The new, large, phased-array radars under construction in the U.S.S.R. along with Lite Hen House. Dog House, Cat House, and possibly the Push- kino radars appear to be designed to provide support for such a widespread ABM defense system. . The complete network (i.e., over 251 of these radars, which could provide target tracking data for ABM deployments beyond Moscow, probably will be operational by the late J980s.. . Both the SA-10 and SA-X-12 may have the potential to Intercept some types of U.S. strategic. ballistic missiles an well. (i.e.. The mobile version of the SAM-10 will be operational by 1985. The mobile SAM -12 will probably also be operational by 1985.1 These systems could, if properly supported, ,rid signlfieunt point-target coverage to a widespread ARM deployment ... The Soviets seem to have placed them- selves its a position to field relatively quick- ly a nationwide ABM system, should they decide to do so. (Emphasis added.) Thus it is fair to conclude, from offi- cial testimony, that the Soviets have already seriously eroded the U.S. de- terrent capability with their ever- growing ABM capability. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 S 7672 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE As Drs. Colin Gray and Keith Payne stated In the spring 1984 Issue of For- eign Affairs: A unilateral Soviet BMD System of even limited effectiveness could be highly destabilizing in the context of existing Soviet offensive first-strike capabilities and extensive air defense and civil defense prep- arations: The U.S. deterrent threat could be severely degraded by the combination of the Soviet first-strike potential to destroy Amer- ican strategic nuclear forces and a Soviet de. fense against surviving American forces. This Is the situation today. Soviet strategic defensive activities were roughly five times U.S. outlays in 1970 and increased to 25 times U.S. outlays in 1979. In effect the ABM treaty provided Soviet SS-18's and SS-19's unimpeded access to U.S. ICBM silos. As Senator TOWER, chairman of the Senate Republican Policy Committee and the Senate Committee on Armed Services stated on April 3, 1984: The military imbalance between the U.S. and the Soviet Union still exists as a threat to our national security. Although signifi- cant progress has been made in the last three years to regain military partly with the Soviet Union, congressionally mandated reduclinns In the President's defense plan have seriously impaired efforts to achieve this goal. In fact, the current imbalance will continue to widen, though at a lesser rate. (Emphasis added.) As the Scowcroft Commission report to President Reagan on strategic forces stated in April 1983: '14" ? ? ef- fective deterrence is in no small meas- ure a question of the Soviets' percep- tion of our national will and cohe- sion." President Reagan himself has on two occasions in 1982 and 1983 public- ly and explicitly accused the Soviet Union of violating the 1962 Kennedy- Khrushchev agreement which ended the Cuban missile crisis, the most dan- gerous nuclear crisis in world history. This agreement was supposed to "halt further introduction of such weapons systems-that is, Soviet of- fensive missiles and other offensive weapons, which Khrushchev even de- fined as including Soviet troops-into Cuba "as firm undertakings" on the part of both the United States and the Soviet governments. President Reagan stated at a press conference in May, 1982: You know, there's been other things we think are violations also of the 1962 agree- There Is conclusive physical evidence of Soviet military activity in Cuba in violation of the Kennedy-Khrushchev agreement: THE SOVIET SALT VIOLATIONS AND CUBA Mr. President, I would like to discuss today the full spectrum of Soviet vio- lations of arms control agreements. As my colleagues know, I have been con- cerned about Soviet arms control vio- lations and their implications for American national security since 1982. Our distinguished colleague, Senator Jna McCLURE, made his first speech this problem back In 1975. Senator MCCLURE successfully sponsored an amendment in 1977 designed to pre- vent extended U.S. compliance with the expired SALT I interim agreement from hindering our strategic options, and both Senator MCCLURE and I have been leading opponents of the unenlual and destabilizing SALT II Treaty. Mr. President, while Soviet SALT violations are dangerous, this danger is overshadowed by another even more ominous development. The Soviets are deploying nuclear weapons delivery ca- pable offensive systems to Cuba, such as TU-95 Bear bombers Mig-27 Flog- ger fighter-bombers, and strategic sub- marines like the Victor III class re- ported to be equipped with long-range cruise missiles. The Soviets auto have nuclear warhead storage facilities in Cuba, and the United States is report- edly unable to rule out the presence of Soviet nuclear weapons themselves in Cuba. On September 14, 1983. President Reagan repeated his accusation. He stated: As far as I'm concerned, that agreement has been abrogated many times by the Soviet Union and Cuba in the bringing of what can only be considered offensive weap- ons, not defensive, there. The President's two statements have been backed up by stronger state- ments by the CIA Director, the Chair- man of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and by an Under Secretary of Defense. As I said, Mr. President, the Kenne- dy-Khrushchev agreement was the agreement that ended the Cuban mis- sile crisis, and it can be regarded as an arms control agreement because it os- tensibly forbade Soviet offensive mis- siles and bombers In Cuba and it. en- tailed United Nations onsite inspection against Soviet reintroduction of such weapons. But of course the Castro regime refused to agree to U.N. onsite inspection, and since 1969 many Soviet offensive nuclear delivery capable weapons have been gradually, returned to Cuba. Thus the Soviet threat from Cuba is today greater than it was in 1962, as can be Inferred from the Soviet activities and President Rea- gan's statements. This fact suggests that we miuzy soon find ourselves back in a Cuban missile crisis situation, but now we are much weaker than the Soviet Union and the danger may be even :greater for U.S. national security interests. The State Department has stated re- cently to the Senate that: The basing of any nuclear-armed subma- rine in Cuba would Contravene the U.&- U.S.S.R. understanding on Cuba. The Sovi- ets are aware of this, "(Emphasis added.) Thus the State Department must surely consider the acknowledged Soviet basing of Golf and Echo class nuclear armed missile submarines in Cuba in 1970, 1972, 1973, and 1974 to be Soviet violations of the 1962 Ken- nedy-Khrushchev agreement. The State Department has therefore con- firmed Soviet violation of the Kenne- dy-Khrushchev agreement. June 20. 1984 The State Department has also stated recently to the Senate that: The Department of State does agree with the President and the other officials. . that the Soviet Union has on occasion vio laced the spirit of the Kennedy. Khrushchev underrttnnding. The State Department has also re- cently conceded that: All Soviet tactical aircraft in Eastern Europe, Including Floggere are rated as po tential nuclear delivery systems. Some top Reagan administration ui- ficials are predicting that the Soviet Union will play high risk politics in the year of 1984 prior to the Novem- ber Presidential election. This predic- tion, too, suggests another Caribbean crisis, but this time perhaps with the roles reversed. I will return to this problem later, but It Is against this ominous background of a nascent Soviet strategic threat from Cuba that we now have confirmation of a whole series of Soviet arms control viola- tions. Mr. President, after many months of careful study, President Reagan finrtl- ly reported to Congress on January 23, 1984, that the Soviet Union had violat- ed six arms control treaties In nine dif- ferent cases. Mr. President, I ask unanimous con- sent that the President's let ter and report be printed in the RECORD at (.Iu end of my speech. There being no objection, the letter and report were ordered to be printed In the RECORD. President Reagan stated that five of these nine Soviet arms control treaty violations, including two related to the SALT II Treaty, were clearcut, un- qualified, and unequivocal violations. The President's Report To the Con- gress on Soviet Noncompliance Wit Ii Arms Control Agreements stated su- cinctly: The U.S. Governnumt has (letcrnflywd that the Soviet Union Is violating- 1. The Geneva Protocol on ('hernirai Weapons: 2. The Biological Weapons Convent ion; 3. The Helsinki Final Act, and two provi- sions of SALT II: 4. Telemetry encryption; and 5. A rule concerning ICBM modernization. In addition, we have determined that the Soviet Union has- 6. Almost certainly violated the ISA1:TI I ABM Treaty, 7. Probably violated the SALT 11 limit on new types: 8. Probably violated the SS-16 deploy- ment prohibition of SALT II; and 9. Is likely to have violated the nuclear testing yield limit of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. To repeat, there have been nine Soviet arms control violations of six treaties confirmed by the President, five of 'which were conclusive and two of these conclusive violations relate(] to SALT II. A total of four of the nint? violations reported related to SALT II. The Defense Department has re cently stated authoritatively that the Soviets currently have two new types of land-based ICBM's under advancu(i Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 June 20, 1984 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE stages of development, thereby teloco Treaty for the Prohibition of making this another unqualified viola- Nuclear Weapons in Latin America, by lion of SALT II, for a total of three their deployment of nuclear delivery unqualified Soviet SALT II violations. capability to Cuba. As Under Secretary of Defense Fred The Soviet Union has a long history Ikle has stated: "It's not alleged cheat- of treaty violations. A study done in ing, it's cheating-period." And as 1955 by the Senate Judiciary Commit- Governor Reagan stated in 1978, "We tee established the fact that the Sovl- know that they-the Soviets-violated ets had violated over 50 treaties since the entire spirit ar)d terms of SALT I." 1917. I put this study into the RtcoRD Mr. President, President Reagan's on February 1, 1984. The study even report is historic and unprecedented. found that the Soviets were violating It is the first time In history that a the very agreement which established U.S. President has ever accused the United States-Soviet diplomatic rela- Soviet Union of a violation of a Strate- tions, the 1933 Litvirtov agreement, by gic Arms Limitation Treaty. It indi. continuing to support revolutionary Cates that the Soviets are violating activities inside the United States de- every maJor arms control treaty in spite their 1933 pledge to cease this force today. It Is an Irrevocable report. support. Unfortunately, however, It covers In the latest edition of the Soviet only the tip of the Iceberg of Soviet Military Encyclopedia-for 1983, the arms control and treaty violations. As Soviet military openly states: Assistant Secretary of Defense Rich- Achievements in biology and related sci- ard Perle testified to the Senate on ences (biochemistry, biophysics, molecular March 14, 1984, the violations in the biology, genetics, microbiology, and experi- President's report were illustrative mental aerobiology) have led to an increase only and he mentioned 20 to 25 addi- in the effectiveness of biological agents as a tional existing violations. means of conducting warfare. Improved methods of obtaining and using deal have OTHER SOVIET VIOLATIONS Or INTERNATIONAL resulted in a qualitative re-examination of SECURITY TREATIES the very concept of biological weapons. What is the full scope of Soviet arms This Is an explicit Soviet military control and other treaty violations? It recognition of their Interest in and is well known that there are over 40 knowledge of biological warfare, which more Soviet SALT and other arms is outlawed by the 1972 Biological control treaty violations alone which Warfare Convention. have not yet been reported on to Con- Official State and Defense Depart- gress by the President, but which can inent documents from 1959 and 1962 be confirmed by other authorities. I in turn confirmed the Senate report will describe each of these later. that the Soviets had violated over 50 In addition, other Reagan adminis- treaties since 1917. Most of these tration spokesmen have publicly and Soviet violations were of nonaggres- authoritatively accused the Soviet lion, peace, or friendship treaties. In Union of violating: fact, the only international security The Yalta Agreement and the Pots- agreement that the U.S.S.R. scrupu- dam Agreement of 1945 by suppressing lously abided by was the August 1939 freedom in Eastern Europe; Hitler-Stalin Pact, which allowed the The United Nations Charter by Soviets to conquer Poland, and which threatening to reinvade Poland in led to the outbreak of World War II. 1981; According to official U.S. Govern- Various International agreements ment sources, the Soviets have thus governing civil aviation by the brutal violated arms control treaties in over Soviet shooting down of Korean Air- 40 cases, and violated over 50 other lines flight 007 and the murder of 269 international security treaties. In addi- innocent civilians; and tion there have been over 120 cases of The 1972 Incidents at Sea Agree- Soviet diplomatic forgeries and decep- ment during the U.S. attempts to re- tions. cover the KAL-007 black box. With Soviet aid and encouragement. Indeed, there is strong evidence that North Vietnam broke the Puris ac- the Soviets shot down KAL-007 in cords on peace in Southeast Asia order to cover up their planned flight- throughout the 1973-75 period. testing that very night of September The conclusion emerges, Mr. Presi- 1, 1983, one or more of their new type dent, from official U.S. Government ICBM's which violate SALT II. And documentation, that the Soviets have since the KAL-007 shoot-down, the violated, evaded, or circumvented Soviets have reportedly been jamming almost every international security U.S. national technical means of SALT treaty they have signed since 1917. verification, an altogether new and ten- The only security treaty they kept led precedented SALT violation. This Jain- to World War II. This Is a sobering ming could bring arms control negotia- conclusion. tions to a complete halt, because it is There is also strong evidence that an act of extreme hostility. the Soviet Politburo even planned and Our West German allies have ac- executed the plot to assassinate Pope cused the Soviets of violating the John Paul II in June 1981. This plot United Nations Charter and the 1973 violated all standards of morality and Agreement on the Prevention of War decency, and was a threat to all man- by their brutal invasion of Afghani- kind: Not even the diabolical mass stan In late 1979. And I believe that murderer Adolf Hitler is k:rown to the Soviets have violated the 1967 TIa- have attacked the person of the Pope. S 7673 The evidence of history shows that the Soviet Union Is truly an outlaw nation. The confirmed Soviet violations of the chemical and biological warfare treaties are more than Just simple arms control treaty violations. They are genocidal atrocities. Over 10.000 Innocent men, women, and children in southeast and southwest Asia have died horrible and cruel deaths. All for the sake of Soviet aggression, in viola- tion of other solemn International agreements. PEACE THROUGH SPACE DEFENSE Nevertheless, Mr. President, the United States should continue always to seek peaceful relations with the Soviet Union. Surely we must always seek to resolve our differences with the Soviets through peaceful diploma- cy and negotiations. We must also always be willing to continue to n'go- tiate arms control agreements exit h the Soviet34, despite the sordid history of their past treaty violations. We must convince the Soviets, howe cr, that arms control negotiations now must first be focused upon ending their violations of existing treaties, before there can be further progress toward any new agreements. This is simple commonsense, and It should be easy for the Soviets and the whole world to understand. Soviet deception. treachery, and violations should result, in some penalties for the Soviets, be- cause these actions have Jeopru diced American security and threat rnr'd world peace. Mr. President, if nrnis control invn- ties have been ineffective In rciludrig the risk of nuclear war, and if .ion iet SALT violations are increasing the risk of nuclear war, what other alter- natives to preserve peace are available to us? After we detect Soviet arms con- trol treaty violations, what should we do? I believe that a space based, layered antiballistic missile defense is the lit?:;t way to reduce the risk of nuclear war. The United States can unilaterally deploy strategic defenses in space, and these U.S. ABM defenses in space are not necessarily a threat to the Soviet Union. Strategic defenses are non- threatening, nonprovocative, and could even use nonnuclear technology. This response to Soviet arms control cheating could be made indepenu,?ntIy of arms control. An American space based antiballistic missile deli nse could make the Soviet strategic offen- Rive capability, so laboriously built up over the years, totally obsolete. I will have more to say about stratet;n' de- fenses later this year. SOVIET SALT VIOLATIONS PLANNED 12 YEARS AGO Mr. President, in light of the con- firmed Soviet violations, it is fair to conclude that arms control has hcr'n it traditional Soviet tactic used to disarm opponents by misleading them regard- ing Soviet intentions. This has brcn especially noticeable, to those who are Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 S 7 674 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE June 20, 198.4 to see. in the modern age where the of the SALT I Interim Agreement, May 25. 1 will discuss this evidence in technological lead times can be trteccd which prohibited heavy ICIIM's from more detail later. But let me summit. backward to show that Soviet agree- replacing light ICBM's. Thus we can rite this evidence now by simply ment to arms control treaties were Infer from the history of the Soviet saying that it clearly shows that Lite only deliberate acts of deception, tin- heavy SS-19 program that the Soviet Soviet leaders themselves explicitly dertaken with plans to violate or abro- leaders intended to violate the SALT I planned to violate the fundamental gate the treaties even before the trra- Interim Agreement from the very date provisions, article Ti, of the RA1T I In- s ies were made final. of its signing In 1972. te'rim Agreement by Illegally deploy- There are many clear examples Also in early 1973, the Soviets began ing their heavy SS-19 ICBM to replace strongly supporting this conclusion. constructing the first of what became their light SS-11. In fact, the Soviet. These include the 1958 nuclear test a total of six large antiballistic missile leader Brezhnev himself made the de- moratorium, the 1972 SALT I interim battle management radars. These six cislon to violate the SALT I Interim agreement and AIM Treaty, Lhe 1972 large radars, each the si7.e of two Agreement by deploying the heavy Biological Weapons Convention, and Egyptian pyrtunids, form an Integral. 88-19 Just before he actually signed the 1979 SALT II Treaty. coherent pattern. Five of the six are the Interim Agreement and t fit' ABM The Soviet violations or abrogntions on the periphery of the U.S.S.R. and' Treaty on May 26, 1972. that were planned at the very time the point outward. But the sixth radar, The top level Soviet political deci- treaties were signed include: discovered well along in construction sion to violate the ABM Treaty also The massive breakout of the 1958 only last July, is in the middle of Sibe- dates from May 1972, because as I nuclear test moratorium in August ria and points inward toward the Pa- have mentioned, construction on the 1961 with the largest, most extensive cific coasts of Russia. These six large first of what became a pattern of six nuclear test series ever conducted; radars are part of one Integral pattern, or more huge ABM battle manage- The deployment of the SS-19 ICBM because their radar coverage cones co- ment radars was started In 1973. The in violation of the 1972 SALT I inter- verge and close all but one gap in cov- decision to build the entire network im agreement; erage-this one gap is from the Medl- logically also predated Lite May 1972 The testing in an ATIM node of the terranean Sea. Thus when looking at Soviet decision to sign the SALT I SAM-5, SAM-10, and SAM-12 systems these six large radars, first started in ABM Treaty. in violation of the 1972 SALT I ABM 1973, and now almost completed, we In addition to the now public sensi? Treaty; can discern a pattern. No single radar five Intelligence evidence and Lite SS- The deployment of a comprehensive itself makes sense without the others; 19 and ABM radar deployments sup- and coordinated pattern of ABM they are integrally linked, because the porting this conclusion, the Soviets battle management radars; radar cones of their coverage overlap. themselves seemed to confirm this The continued development, manu- But the SALT I ABM Treaty speci- judgment when they openly stated in facture, and stockpiling of both toxin fies in article I. the most important 1980 that detente began to erode after :uxl biological weapons; provision, that the Soviets can not 1973. The Soviets in fact were telling The encryption of all essential mis- have a nationwide ABM defense, or us that, from the start. to them dt- sile test data; even the base for a nationwide de- tente only meant increased competi- A;,d the testing and deployment of fense. These 6 radars clearly provide a lion. two disallowed ICBM's. base for a nationwide ABM defense, The Defense Department Report to In all of these cases, the violations when linked up with AMB-3, SAM-b, Congress for weal fiscal Department Report to or abrogation were planned by the SAM-10, and SAM-12 mobile missiles tabove evidence ayear 1985 nd my conclusion confi ms Soviets at the time they signed Lite and radars now in mass production the h treaty. The treaties can thus only be and deployment. Moreover, the last of stating: regarded as deceptions designed and the 6 radars, the newly discovered Several of these violations must have been used by the Soviets to gain unilateral Abalakovo or Krasnoyarsk radar, vie- planned by Soviet authorities ninny years advantage, latex article VI of the ABM Treaty, ago, in some cases perhaps at Lite very time The Soviets signed the SALT I Inter- which specifies that all early warning the Soviet Union entered into the agree- im Agreement on Strategic Offensive radars must be on the periphery of the menu. Weapons and the SALT I Anti-Ballis- U.S.S.R. and pointed outward. This And a top Defense official, Ricard tic Missile Treaty on May 26, 1972. radar is in the interior and pointed Perle, recently testified to Congress These two agreements are linked to. inward. that: gether in their preambles and in their Indeed, a third violation of Lite The Soviets have not hesitated to mislead internal provisions. SALT I ABM Treaty is entailed by the us. deliberately and all too successfully. Only now, 14 years later, can we fi- location of the Krasnoyarsk radar. Assistant Secretary of Defense Rich- nally begin to understand what the This is of article III, and the protocol and Perle testified to the Senate on Soviet leaders intended in agreeing to to the ABM Treaty, which allow only March 28, 1984 that the Soviet Union sign the SALT I agreements. There one Soviet ABM site, to defend either deliberately signed I he SAT,T I agree- are two types of evidence of Soviet in- the capital or ICBM's. The Krason- ment fully Intending to later violate tentions in signing the SALT I agree- yarsk ABM radar Is very near about SALT I with weapons giving them a ment?s. We can first trace their actual 200 Soviet ICBM silos, and is ideally sixfold increase In nuclear warheads behavior as observed in their offensive suited by its location to control inter- aimed at the United States. Pei-it, and defensive strategic programs. ceptor ABM missiles to defend these added that there is a great deal of evi- From the patterns of their behavior, ICBM's. Hence this radar Is at least a dence of the Russian' Intent, some of we can infer the intentions of the triple violation of the SALT I ABM which was obtained through secret in- Soviet leadership in signing the SALT Treaty. Its orientation, siting, and ca- telligence sources. I Agreements. Second, we . have very pabilities each violate the treaty, and Perle accused the Soviets of placing unusual and dramatic direct evidence the complete pattern of radars sug- loopholes In the SALT I agreements, of the Soviet leadership's intentions in gests that this was planned in 1972, which they later exploited with weep- signing SALT I. when the treaty was signed. ons that were unknown to the United In early 1973, the Soviets began In addition to the 88-19 and the States at the time of the negotiations. flight testing their new ICBM, the SS- ABM radar programs, which provide The single most Important violation 19. It took the United States until strong inferential evidence of the in. was the development of the giant SS- early 1975 to determine with confi- tentions of Soviet leaders, there is also 19 ICBM, which Perle called a very dence that the SS-19 was regarded by evidence from now public sensitive in- much larger missile than U.S. negotia- the Soviets to be a heavy ICBM, and telligence sources. This evidence was tors believed would be allowed upder that the Soviets intended their heavy first discussed in public in 1976, and SALT I. Perle added the we believe SS-19 to replace 360 light SS-11 Senator McCLtfae mentioned it before they refrained from testing It in the ICBM's. This was contrary to article II himself in his speech on the MX last closing months of the negotiations so Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 June 20, 1984 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE S 7675 that we would be unaware of it when to violate the agreements. Admiral The USSR has stretched the limits and we signed the treaty. Immediately Zumwalt revealed for the first time spirit of both the SALT I and SALT II after the treaty was signed, we saw the that this evidence had been withheld agreements in expanding and modernizing Its strategic arsenal. first test of the SS-19. from the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the This confirms the facts that the So Perle added that "the Soviets knew summer of, 972 until after the JCS viets have gamedhe facts unthe So- there was the loophole in the treaty. had testified in favor of SALT I. In vietfrom B. We know they knew it. The SS-19 pro- fact, a CIA Inspector General's report advantages Mr. President, ALT therefore should gram resulted in an increase by six of October 1978 confirms this coilclu come as no surprise to us that the So- di ' he So- s withhol times in the number of ballistic war- sion regarding Kissinger ng viers likewise signed the ti na S t l h e c e a heads aimed at the United States." from the JCS. Finally, t Test Ban Treaty in 1974, the Helsinki d that fi rme This Soviet intention to violate tor Jackson has also con SALT I from the outset in 1972 is also the Senate was "lied to" on SALT I. It Final Act in 1975, and the SALT II confirmed by the following inter- is, therefore, reasonable to conclude Treaty in 1979, fully intending from change between Senator JIM MCCLURE that the SALT I ABM Treaty and the the start to violate these solemn anus and the former Chief of Naval Oper- SALT I interim offensive agreement. control treaties, just as they in fact ations at the time of SALT I, Adm. were ratified and approved under false did in the case of the 1972 SALT 1 ill- Elmo Zumwalt: pretenses. Had the JCS and the terim agreement and ABM Treaty, fit tti kc and the Biological Warfare Conven- TRANsr itlrT of QUESTION AND ANSWER Srs? SIGN BF.-rWECN SENATOR MCCLURE AND AD- MIRALELMO ZUMWALT BEFORE THE DSPENSE APPROPRIATIONS SUBCOMMITTEE. MARCH 28, 1984 MCCLURE. In 1972, you testified on SALT I that if the Soviets deployed a heavy ICBM to replace light ICBMs, this would violate SALT I. Do you believe the Soviets' heavy SS-19 IC13M deployment violated SALT I? ZUMWALT. I believe that it does. Directly violates SALT I as SALT I was reported and lained to the Congress of the United x p e e The ev States during Its ratification process, and I some new biological warfare facilities Glavbeal Is flatly wrong. and he believe there was information available to were even constructed after 1972 and the government at the time, but unknown should have known he was wrong to the Joint Chiefs of Staff that confirmed after 1975, when the convention was wllcn he testified. t fiat a violation was going to be made. ratified by the United States and the SU h esNTAeES /IIOM SALT VIULATWNS MCCLURE. That's an interesting comment. Soviet Union. IET I don't want to get diverted too far, but I Thus there is a pattern of Soviet be- What have the Soviets gained from want to underscore your statement that our havior spanning the two SALT I almost a decade and a half of SALT government had Information that the Joint agreements and the Biological War- violations intended from as early as Chiefs of Staff did not have. Did I under- fare Convention, all signed in 1972. 1972? The Soviets have achieved an stand you correctly? The evidence indicates clearly and overwhelming shift in both the strafe . That is correct, Ise r eate issue. , conclusively that in 1972 the Soviet gic and in the overall military balance ZUMWALTr. Chairman MCCLURE That, to me, is a s CCt but not entirely separate, and a very sy serious leaders signed these three solemn since SALT began 15 years ago in charge. Because if our Joint Chiefs can't international arms control treaties 1969. The United States and the West have all the information we have, how in fully intending to violate the principal are far more insecure today than when the world can they make their judgment? constraints of the treaties from the strategic arms limitation talks began ZuMWALT. This is a matter that, at some very outset. in 1969. point, we will have to go into in classified The Soviets likewise knew in 1974 Mr. President, I ask unanimous con- sesshn. when they signed the Threshold Test sent that the following two articles be Perle The sedioSenat of the RE'S state- Ban Treaty that they were planning to printed at this point in the RECORD. meat and al Zumwalt isfu th dialog deploy new warheads with yields much The first article is from the Boston with Admiral Zumwalt n fustier illus- larger than 150 kilotons on their new Globe of February 11, 1977, by Wil- ttor Jackson As the h se laedd distinguished Sena- fourth and fifth generation ICBM's. liam Beecher, and is entitled he Senate June Armed Serv- d Seto -Thus they knew they would hue to acv Termed Detente a Ruse, 1973 i e My interpretation Comon Ar t violate the threshold test ban yield of Report Said." The second article is ices: My Sovietcould [in 1972] as to 150 kilotons. The reason is that also in from the New York Times of Septem- SS 1 the Soviets do with the 1974 the Soviets began developing ber 17, 1973, by John Finney. These true. has turned out to be absolutely their new SS-X-24 and SS-X-25 new two articles demonstrate the evidence true. [Jackson direpl in 1 the light that type ICBM's, both of which eventually that the Soviets consider detente and the Sovieets replace large as would also violate the SALT II Treaty SALT to be a huge deception effort SS-11 w the SS-19th And what the understand- a hevy ICBM n erand- then being negotiated. These new aimed at achieving decisive superiority the as on part of the President's 's ICBM's are estimated to carry war- over the West. representatives was the peas s c o that. heads with yields much larger than There being no objection, the arti- wSecretary aithat. 150 kilotons. cles were ordered to be printed In the And ash at know, Secretary Laird has And as Under Secretary of Defense RECORD, as follows: e Richard DeLatler testified to the (From the Boston Globe, Feb. 11, 1977 1 the understanding hat it a ag that complete they violation [the ta Nix xon administration) had * * ? We Senate on March 13, 1984: BRPEHNEV Ttra-MtID DETENTE A RUSE. 1973 REPORT SAID [the Senate] were lied to in SALT I Major programs recently deployed or now ? ? ? We were lied to by the Secretary, late In development were generally Initialed (By William Beecher) the now Secretary of State Kissinger at the highest levels of Soviet leadership WAsHINOTON.-A suppressed report from ? ? ? It turned out that the things we about ten years ago. (Emphasis added.) British intelligence in early 1973 quoted predicted were right ? ' ? Secretary of This statement confirms that the il- Soviet loader Leonid Breahnev was privately Defense Melvin Laird has since cor- legal Soviet SS-X-25 and the illegally declaring that detente was a ruse designed roborated it, that they [the Nixon ad- encrypted SS-X-24 programs began in to lead to a decisive shift in the balance ul ministration) were misled [by the So- 1974 at the direction of Brezllnev and power. Ogarkov. The report was denigrated and dismissed viets]. Ustinov and Marshal by Henry Kissinger, according to well Thus we can confirm that there is According to the April 1984 third placed sources. But the first reference to it the edition the that con ive evidence e latest signcedsSALT I in 1972 fully in ending book Soviet MilitaDefe ry PowDc,partlnetlt Brice Estimate in)1970 sour Jestsaid. Intelli Senate been made aware o 1 . 1,1011. evidence on the Soviet Intent to vlo But Sidney Graybeal, former U.S. late SALT I 1972, SALT I might Commissioner on the SALT Standing never have received congressional ap? Consultative Commission from 1912 to But proval. there is more. The Soviets also 1978 testified to the Senate in 1979 signed the Biological Warfare Convert- that: Lion in 1972, and there was Immediate I do not believe that the Soviets would evidence that their existing biological enter Into any agreement which required warfare plants continued to expand, them to cheat in order to attain their Inili- instead of being dismantled, as re- Lary objectives, or on which they planned to cheat. quired by the BW Convention. In fact. nce indicated that Mr. id Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 S 7676 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE June 20, 1984 The sources who have seen the report say it was represented by the British as dyna- mite, comparable in importance with Lite texts of the 1956 speech by Nikita Krusch- chev detailing the sins of Stalin. It quoted Brezhnev as telling a secret meeting of East European Communist party leaders in Prague that detente was a strata- gem to allow the Soviets to build up their military and economic power so that by 1985 "a decisive shift in the corollation of forces" would enable the Russians Co "exert our will wherever we need to." The report came during the height of eu- phoria in the United States about the prom- ise of detente, a policy of which Kissinger was the principal architect and exponent. "The report was as welcome as a dose of chicken pox as far as Henry was concerned," one source recalls. "I suspect that had it been more congenial to what he was trying to accomplish it would have gotten wider at- tention and credence." The British said they obtained the ac- count from a man who attended the lengthy Prague meeting called by Brezhnev to as- suage fears that he was ready to sacrifice East European interests at the altar of de- tente. British intelligence was so sensitive about the source that one copy was hand carried to Washington for the director of Central Intelligence, He in turn sent copies to only six officials: the President, his national se- curity advisory, the secretaries of State and Defense and the intelligence chiefs of the State Department and the Pentagon. The document classified top secret, car- ried the unusual admonition not to dupli- cate it or discuss it with any but the ad- dressees. That admonition not withstanding, sources say, the matter was discussed among a tight circle of high officials. Kissinger and others reportedly suggested that since the account came from an untried source and couldn't be corroborated, it should be re- garded as untrustworthy and dismissed. Others said that even if It . genuine, the report represented the kind of thing Drczhnev might be expected to say to calm nervous Communist bloc leaders without re- flecting his true thinking or plans. An attempt to reach Kissinger for com- ment this week before he left on a Mexican holiday was unsuccessful. The British report was based on the recol- lections of ... Lite Prague meeting. There is no way of knowing whether specific quotes attributed to Brezhnev were entirely accu- rate. According to three senior ... will have consolidated our position. We will have im- proved our economy. And a decisive shift in the corrolation of forces will be such that come 1985, we will be able to exert our will wherever we need to." Even in retrospect, senior analysts say they cannot be sure how faithful was the account of the Brezhnev speech. But they say the words are consistent with subse- quent public statements by Brczllnev and with certain Soviet actions. So in the National Intelligence Estimate for 1976, drawn up late last year after a major debate between CIA analysts and a team of outside specialists headed by liar- vard Professor Richard Pipes, for the first time reference was made to the Prague meeting and the reported Brezhnev state- ments there, well placed sources say ... was the gist of the report. Brczhncv said he was aware of the con- cern of the East European leaders that de- tente initiatives seemed to be moving so fast that their interests might be sacrificed. But he Insisted that his pursuit of detente was designed to serve their common inter- eats not to compromise them. "We are achieving with detente what our predeces- sors have been unable to achieve using Lite mailed fist," he reportedly said. He then went through an appraisal of trends in various Western countries, report- edly saying that Finland was in the Soviet pocket. Norway was still troublesome, but trends were moving In the right direction. Denmark, he said, was no longer a viable element of western strength. In the United Kingdom, Brczhncv contin- ued, the USSR's fondest expectations were being exceeded because of the efforts of its fellow socialist brethern. French foreign policy, he said, was Marxist. Trends in Italy, he remarked, were favorable. But he reportedly said it was in West Ger- many that "our greatest achievements are being realised." He said "our great and true friend, fellow socialist, Willy Brandt, has brought about a miracle" by making It pos- sible premanently to consolidate contested borders and by pushing through his Ostpoll- tik. "We have been able to accomplish more In a short time with detente than was done for years pursuing confrontation policy with NATO," he said. He noted that while negotiations proceed- ed on SALT and on Mutual Balance Force Reductions the United States was unlikely to build up militarily in reaction to the Soviet buildup, he reportedly concluded. "Trust us, comrades, for by 1985 as a con- sequence of what we are now achieving with detente, we will have achieved most of our (?) objectives in Western Europe. We ... IFrotn the New York Times, Sept. 17, 19731 (By John W. Finney) WASHINGTON, September 16.-According to Intelligence reports recently received here, Leonid I. Brczhncv, the Soviet Community party leader, has emphasized to Eastern Eu- ropean leaders that the movement toward Improving relations with the West Is a tacti- cal policy change to permit the Soviet bloc to establish its superiority in the next 12 to 15 years. Although there is some question about the authenticity of the reports, they are contributing to a debate within the Admin- istration over whether the current Soviet course really represents a basic change in intention or is merely a temporary shift. As summarized by Defense and State De- partment officials who have studied the In- telligence reports, the Brezhnev explanation went like this: To the Soviet Union, the policy of accom- modation does represent a tactical policy shift. Over the next 15 years or so, the Soviet Union intends to pursue accords with the West and at the same time build up its own economic and military strength. At the end of this period. in about the middle nineteen-eighties, Lite strength of the Soviet bloc will have increased to the point at which the Soviet Union, instead of relying on accords, could establish an Inde- pendent, superior position In Its dealings with the West. HOW UNITED STATES GOT REPORTS The intelligence reports are for the most part third- or fourth-hand accounts of Brezhnev statements that have filtered through Eastern European sources to West? ern intelligence agencies and finally to the United States Intelligence community. The authenticity of one report of a Brezh- nev conversation with an Eastern European leader last spring, before the Soviet leader met in June with President Nixon. was said to have been vouched for by British Intelli- gence, which received the report and turned it over to the United States. American offi- cials said that similar intelligence reports have been received rncerning other such Brezhnev statements, both In Moscow and In Eastern European capitals. SUSPICIONS AMONG MILITARY The attitude among specialists on the Soviet Union is to accept the Intelligence re- ports as probably accurate. Differences have developed within Lite Administration over how to interpret the statements. Some high-ranking military officials regard the intelligence reports as confirma- tion of their suspicions that the Russians are Intent upon using accommodation as n way of disarming the West and establishing a military superiority that will permit a more aggressive Soviet foreign policy. Most civilian analysts of the Soviet Union place less ominous Intrepretation on the In- telligence reports. They tend to consider the reported Brezhnev statements an Internal tactic designed to mollify the hardline oppo- siton within the Communists camp as the Soviet leader pursues a policy of detente with the West. The reports have had considerable impact on the Pentagon. When they are asked to document their contention that the Soviet Union was Intent on establishing military superiority over the United States, high. ranking officers immediately cite the intelli- gence reports on what U coming to be known within the Pentagon as "the new Brezhnev doctrine." TURNING SCREWS ON UNITED STATES From the first concrete steps toward East- West accommodation, military officials have tended to suspect Soviet Intentions, as re- flected in the reservations of the Joint Chiefs of Staff about last year's agreement limiting offensive strategic arms. A common military judgment Is that the Soviet Union may be using accommodation In part to lower the guard of the West while it pursues a build-up in the 1980-85 period to achieve military superiority. This judgment tends to be supported by the intelligence reports on Lite Hrezhncv statements about pursuing accords for 12 to 15 years. To United States military officials, the implication Is that by the end of that period the Soviet Union believes It will be to an economic and military position at which It can begin, as one high officer put it, "to start turning the screws on the United States." Perhaps not completely by coincidence. the reports began to appear at a time when the defense budget faced a serious challenge on the Senate floor. The Senate begins debate this week on the annual military procurement bill, with moves planned to cut away at various weapons and manpower programs. In the face of a growing view tit the Senate that accommodation should permit a re-examination of defense policies, the De. fense Department has been going to consid- erable lengths to emphasize that detente does not permit cuts in the defense budget. In assailing moves to reduce defense spend- ing, for example, Defense Secretary James R. Schlesinger emphasized recently that de- spite the hopeful atmosphere. Soviet bloc military strength was still growing. He char. acterized the Soviet Union as having "a mailed fist encased In the velvet glove of de- tente." CIVILIAN-MILITARY DPSATE It appears that the Intelligence reports have contributed to the differences between military circles in the Pentagon and civilian circles in the State Department tit assessing Soviet Intentions. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 June 20, 1984 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE . Civilian analysts of the Soviet Union read the Brezhnev statements as emphgsizing ac- commodation as a way of achieving an eco- nomic, rather than military, build-up of the Soviet bloc-not some long-range master plan for military superiority over the United States. It was also the prevailing belief in civilian circles that the Brezhnev statements were motivated by internal political consider- ations within the Communist bloc. Within the Communist party in the Soviet Union. as well as in some of the Eastern Fruopran countries, according to Soviet ape- cialists, there appear to be some lingering reservations about the desirability of a coop- erative policy with the West. The Brezhnev statements, therefore, were Interpreted as an attempt to provide a rationale and justi- fication that would permit all factions, In- cluding the ideological hardliners to join behind a policy of cooperation with the West for 12 to 15 years. As one Government specialist on Soviet affairs put 1t: The self-proclaimed tactical shift Is probably a tactic in itself." Mr. SYMMS. There is a relationship between the intentions of Soviet lead- ers and the capabilities they develop and control. They have developed a tremendous strategic superiority, both offensive and defensive. We can Infer from these deliberately developed ca- pabilities that the intentions of Soviet leaders are to use these capabilities for intimidation and blackmail. BRU..HNS'V INTENDED SOVIET WORLD DOMINATION BY 1866 New credence should therefore be given to the 1973 intelligence report of a secret speech by the late Soviet leader Brezhnev to Warsaw Pact Com- munist Party leaders. Brezhnev stated explicitly that detente with the West was a gigantic deception and ruse de- signed deliberately to enable the Soviet Union to gain military suprema- cy. Brezhnev predicted that detente would lull the West into complacency while allowing the Soviets to achieve worldwide, global dominance by 1985. The Soviets may not be ahead of this schedule, given their flagrant SALT breakout In 1983, resulting from their SALT violations decisions made in 1972. MARSHAL OGARKOV, SALT, AND STRATEGIC DECEPTION Soviet Marshal Nlcolal Ogarkov, now chief of the Soviet General Staff, was the top Soviet military delegate to the SALT I negotiations from 1969 to 1971. Ogarkov has remained closely in- volved in devising the Soviet SALT ne- gotiating strategy and positions since 1971. because we know that the Soviet military establishment plays the most influential role in both defense plan- ning and SALT negotiating. The Soviet military formulates its 5-year defense plans, and then devises its SALT negotiating strategy and posi- tions In order to protect these plans from being constrained by SALT. Mr. President, what is not widely un- derstoods in the United States is the now well documented fact that Mar- shal Ogarkov was simultaneously the creator and first Director of the Gen- eral Staff's Directorate of Stategic De- ception. The purpose of this Director- ate of Deception is to coordinate Soviet strategic camouflage, conceal- ment, and deception with the Soviet SALT negotiating and compliance policy. If detente and SALT have been a gigantic but highly successful ruse for the Soviets, then Ogarkov and his Deception Directorate are largely re- sponsible. But the top Soviet political leadership, including the late Soviet Presidents Brezhnev and Andropov, were just as deeply involved in the de- cisions on Soviet SALT negotiating de- ception and violations. Indeed, I have already mentioned the conclusive doc- umentation of the Soviet leadership's deceptive intentions in SALT dating from as early as 1972. SOVIET SALT BREAKOUT In fact, the Soviets use arms control negotiations to gain unilateral advan- tage. After negotiating SALT agree- ments with loopholes that leave all of their strategic programs uncon- strained, the Soviets then go further to violate and circumvent the SALT agreements. The Soviets are are now flight-test- ing a new small mobile ICBM, the SS- X-25, which will probably carry sever- al MIRY warheads each with yields well above 150 kilotons. The Soviets are also constructing new ABM battle management radars and mass producing new mobile sur- face-to-air interceptor missiles and radars with ABM capabilities and new mobile ABM interceptor missiles and radars. Thus America may now be witness- ing the Soviet SALT breakout deploy- ment of an illegal new mobile ICBM, carrying illegal new MIRVed war- heads, and defended by an illegal ABM system using illegal large battle- management radars and illegal mobile ABM and ABM capable SAM intercep- tor missiles and radars. Again, all of this was decided upon in 1972 and 1974, 12 to 14 years ago. In fact, the Soviets may soon have not only an illegal nationwide ABM system which could protect key indus- trial areas, but this same illegal ABM system could also protect a significant percentage of the Soviet ICBM force. The Moscow ABM complex is being modernized and expanded with new radars and new interceptor missiles, Including interceptors which can be rapidly reloaded and refired. The Moscow ABM system can already defend several hundred MIRVed ICBM silos deployed near Moscow. The new Siberian ABM radar at Kras- noyarsk, moreover, is ideally located and oriented to help defend hundreds of nearby MIRV'd ICBM silos and mobile ICBM and IRBM deployment areas. Hence it is reasonable to conclude that the Soviets are now deploying ABM systems which could defend up to about 30 percent or even more of the Soviet ICBM warheads. This would give the Soviets not only a first strike capability, but also an invulner- able first strike capability, and an In- S 7677 vulnerable second strike capability. These Soviet capabilities already greatly erode the U.B. deterrent retali- atory capability. Moreover, there is evidence that the Soviets have deployed 12 to 14 war- heads on each of their giant SS-18 super-heavey ICBM's. SALT 11 allows them only 10 warheads on each SS- 18. The Soviets have over 308 88-18's. Such a SALT II violation could thus allow the Soviets to increase the number of their ICBM warheads by from 616 to 1,304 warheads. This prob- able Soviet SALT II violation has not yet been confirmed by the President, but I am confident that it is a Soviet violation. SOVIET SALT DUPLICITY Mr. President, as I have pointed out, the Soviet record of SALT violations and diplomatic duplicity is a long one. As former President Jimmy Carter stated on December 31, 1979, Soviet President Brezhnev's response to Carter's note requesting an explana- tion of the reasons for the Soviet Inva- sion of Afghanistan "was obviously false ... The tone of his [i.e. I3rezh- nev's) message to me . was com- pletely inadequate and completely misleading. He is not telling the facts accurately ... My opinion of the Rus- sians has changed more drastically in the last week than even the previous two and a half years before that ... This action of the Soviets has made a more dramatic change in my opinion of what the Soviet's ultimate goals are than anything they've done in the pre- vious time I've been in office." As our distinguished colleague, Sena- tor JOHN WARNER, stated in a Senate floor speech on January 2. 1980: In view of the President's (i.e. Carter's) statement that Brezhnev lied to him about Afghanistan, It might well be that Brezhnev lied during the SALT II negotiations. And as President Reagan stated on January 29, 1981, "? ? ? they [the So- viets] reserve unto themselves the right to commit any crime, to lie, to cheat ? ? ?" Mr. President, I have already men- tioned the sensitive intelligence evi- dence that Brezhnev lied to the United States in the SALT I negotia- tions over the Soviet heavy SS-19 ICBM. Brezhnev also lied to the United States again In SALT II over the capabilities and production rate of the Backfire bomber, according to Under Secretary of Defense Fred Ikle and many other experts. As Assistant Secretary of Defense Richard Perle testified to Congress on February 22, 1984: The Soviets have not hesitated to mislead us. deliberately and all too successfully. In fact, there have been over 14 cases of Soviet negotiating deception in SALT I and SALT II which can be fully documented with unclassified evidence. Mr. President, despite protestations of seeking only equal security and no unilateral advantages. there is a pre- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 S 7678 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE June 20, 1984 dominant objective in the Soviet ap- proach to arms control. The evidence shows that the Soviets have used arms control negotiations and agreements in order to gain unilateral advantages and to achieve overall strategic superi- ority over the United States. This has clearly been the Soviet goal and achievement in the SALT I Interim Agreement and ABM Treaty, the Bio- logical Warfare Convention, the Threshold Test Ban Treaty, the Hel- sinki Final Act, and in the SALT II Treaty. But the Soviet circumventions and violations of these arms control treaties have destroyed all of the basic objectives that the United States had in entering into these treaties. The official Soviet propaganda pub- lication entitled "Whence the Threat to Peace" published in 1982 denies the existance of any Soviet arms control treaty violations. It states: The Soviet Union's attitude to its interna- tional commitments Is clearly formulated In the Constitution of the USSR. The Soviet Union has never violated the standards of international law or any treaties or agree- nwnts. It has always been a reliable partner in international affairs. "If we put our sig- nature under a treaty," Leonid Brezhnev pointed out, "We mean that we are fully re- solved to adhere to its letter and spirit strictly and entirely." (Emphasis added.) Tilr SV..Vr.N MOST SIGNIFICANT SOVIET VIOLATIONS The problem of Soviet noncompli- ance with arms control treaties has to be dealt with as a matter of the high- est national priority. I would like, Mr. President, to remind the Senate that on April 14, 1983, Senator Jim MCCLURE pointed out on the Senate floor the seven most military signifi- cant Soviet arms control violations. I would like to recall again for my col- leagues those seven most dangerous Soviet arms control violations as pointed out by JIM MCCLURE: First, Soviet deployment of heavy ICBM's replacing light ICBM's ena- bling them to quintuple their counter- force capability. Second, Soviet ICBM rapid reload/ refire, stockpiling of extra missiles, covert soft launch and mobile ICBM capability, circumventing all SALT launcher ceilings, and also adding a strategic reserve with strong counter- force capabilities. Third, Soviet flight-testing of two new type ICBM's, in violation of SALT II, which adds to an already over- whelming counterforce capability. Fourth, Soviet violation of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty in militari- ly significant ways, which also adds to their counterforce capability. Fifth, Soviet development of a na- tionwide ABM defense, through their construction of ABM battle-manage- , ment radars, three types of SAM's for former Secretary, of state Kissinger five of the United States. Obviously, It has not a t been i.e., th. TK ned -K her been ABM mode use, and a mobile and rap- conceded that Illegal Soviet SS-19 de- th shchev ... idly deployable new ABM in mass pro- ployment was sharp practice, and that afireleemen ( II. he a duction. All of these capabilities give Soviet resistance to a heavy ICBM def- agreement) was t was eroded d incrementally ly o the total effect of such small changes, how the Soviets a real ABM breakout capa- Inition In SALT II constituted a signif- ever, has been-over five Administrations of bility. leant failure in the SALT II Treaty's both parties-an enormously increased milt Sixth, Soviet violation of the Biolog. negotiation and drafting. Finally, even ical Warfare and Chemical Weapons the Senate Intelligence Committee Conventions. under former Senator Birch Bayh Seventh, Soviet deployment of of- stated in its October 1979 report on fensive weapons to Cuba, In violation the verifiability of SALT II that of the Kennedy-Khrushchev Agree- Soviet SS-19 deployment at least cir- ment of 1962. Of these seven most militarily signif- icant Soviet SALT violations that Sen- ator JIM MCCLURS already long ago pointed out to the Senate, tour have been confirmed by President Reagan in his report of January 23, 1984. President Reagan confirmed that the Soviets are: One, illegally testing two new type ICBM's, in violation of SALT II, which adds even more to an already over- whelming Soviet counterforce capabil- ity; Two, Soviet violation of the Thresh- old Test Ban Treaty, which also adds to their already overwhelming coun- terforce capability; Three, Soviet development of an ille- gal nationwide. ABM defense, as exem- plified by their Illegal Krasnoyarsk radar and their tests of SAM missiles and radars in an ABM mode. More- over, Dr. Henry Kissinger, chief nego- tiator of SALT I. conceded in Septem- ber 1982 that the Soviet tests of SAM's in an ABM mode violated SALT I. The President's violations report added that: Soviet violation of the ABM Treaty could be very significant. Four, Soviet violations of the biolog- ical and chemical warfare treaties. Thus four of Senator MCCLURE'S original seven most militarily signifi- cant Soviet SALT violations have been confirmed by President Reagan. Of these seven most militarily signif- icant Soviet SALT violations that Sen- ator McCLURE pointed out, three are not included in President Reagan's report to Congess. These are. One, Soviet deployment of heavy SS-19 ICBM's to replace light SS-11 ICBM's, in violation of article II of the SALT I Interim Agreement; Two, Soviet rapid reload and refire ICBM capability and illegal stockpil- ing of extra ICBM's, in violation and circumvention of SALT II's provisions and all five SALT II launcher ceilings; Three, Soviet deployment of offen- sive weapons, including nuclear weap- ons delivery vehicles and storage facili- ties, to Cuba, in violation of the 1902 sr-n-1 -Khrushchev a recmnnf cumvented the SALT I interim agree- ment. Thus, there Is strong support for my charge. The Defense Department has ex- pressed public concern that Soviet stockpiled missiles have at least cir- cumvented the four SALT 11 ceilings on launchers, 2,250, 1,320, 1,200, and 820. In September 1983, and in May 1982, President Reagan himself explicitly and publicly accused the Soviets of ab- rogating or violating the 1962 Kenne- dy-Krushchev agreement by their military activities In Cuba. These charges have been backed up by three top officials. The Kissinger Commission report re- leased In January 1984, emphasizes that there Is an acute and urgent crisis in Central America. The main security problem in the region is the Soviet military base in Cuba and Soviet- Cuban support for the Sandinista ef- forts to attack the peaceful states in the region. The Soviet military base in Cuba and Soviet support for revolu- tion in the Western Hemisphere vio- late the accords which ended the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. The Kissinger Commission report on pages 107 and 108 makes a-very signifi- cant reference to the Kennedy-Krush- chev agreement, which ended the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 by requir- ing the Soviets to remove their offen- sive weapons from Cuba. The report reaffirms President Kennedy's impor- tant warning to the Soviets and the Cubans on November 20. 1962: If all [Soviet] offensive weapons systems are removed from Cuba and kept out of the hemisphere in the future, and if Cuba Is not used for the export of aggressive Commu- nist purposes, there will be peace in the Car- ibbean. But the Soviets have reportedly brought' bombers, fighter-bombers, and strategic submarines and support bases back into Cuba. These forces have more nuclear delivery capability than the Soviet missiles and bombers discovered In October 1962. The Sovi- ets reportedly also have a combat bri- which ended the Cuban missile crisis. gale, nuclear warhead storage facili- On each of these three militarily Sig- ties, and even biological warfare facili- nificant Soviet violations, however, ties in Cuba. there is strong confirmation of Sena- The Kissinger Commission report tor McCLURE's original charge. points out the consequences for Inter- In 1974, former Defense Secretary American security of the failure of the Laird charged that Soviet SS-19 de- Kennedy-Khrushchev agreement ? of ployment was a clearcut Soviet viola- prevent Soviet-Cuban offensive base tion of the SALT I interim agreement. and aggression in the region: Many other top defense leaders and (Kennedy's warning) was more than an expectation. It was a declared policy objec- experts agree with Laird. 11; 1979 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 June 20, 1984 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE S 7679 tary power and capacity for aggression con- mans to function as an equal with the complying with the arms control pro. centrated on the island of Cuba, and the other powers of Europe, a position to visions of the Versailles Treaty. In t lit, projection of that threat into central Amer- Ica . . . which most Germans felt entitled by House of Commons, Churchill stated Senator MCCLURE, Senator HELMS, reason of Germany's economic, educa- that: and and I have been the leaders in the tional, scientific, and technological The worst crime is not to tell the truth to painting out the aders of the prowess. In, the view of those German the public, and I think we must ask r he Soviet-Cuban military bases and age military and political leaders who vlo- Government to assure us that e)ermany has Sovie Kennedy- lated the disarmament provisions of observed and is observing her treaty oblign- ession on in K hev violation agreement, of the both to Amer- Versailles, or who covered up such vlo- tlolrs in respect to military avintlon. ican security and to the security of the lations, the fact that neither the Brit- Unfortunately, the British Govern. Western Hemisphere. I believe that i.,h nor the French tried to enforce ment lied to the British people, and President Reagan should enforce German disarmament Justified Germa? did assure the British people, contrary Soviet compliance with the Kennedy- ny in its resistance to the disarma- to the facts of German rearmament, Khre compliance by requiring that Hitler was not violating the Ver- the Soviets to remove their nuclear ing The result of this situation was that sallies Treaty. Thus, Britain slept the S capable ets tbmbeth and subme- Germany was able to take actions until it was too late to avoid World rives and othbo offensive subma which clearly violated the disarma- War II. r for to iness from then, and offensive stop using ment provisions of Versailles, and the In the summer of 1935, high-ranking Coca as a military base for the export allies did not even attempt enforce- naval officers of Hitler's Germany sp- ba as Lion in Central America, ment. The Allies did little or nothing proached officials of the British Gov- Thuo all seven of l At rica 's about the German violations. In most ernment with a one-time offer. The original all evenn ofJI Soviet SALT cases, the German Government bland- Nazis promised to limit their surface violations have either bconfirmed ly denied that disarmament violations naval fleet to one-third the size of the vy President Rbeen e have strong were taking place, and the denials British fleet, if only Germany enmrltl by President Reagan, I believe that Senator were accepted, especially by the Brit- have 100 percent of Britain's subma- ofM al McCLuRz support. is, believe that a very or ish, at face value as true. The Allied rive tonnage. Ignoring the fact that redible spokesman a aSoviet SALT Control Commission met evasions and the Nazis were already in violation of credibons, passive resistance in many of its at- the 1921 Versailles Treaty ending Mr. President, even the Arms Con- tempts to inspect illegal German mu- World War I by having any navy at tro] President, has the that: nitions factories, and was continually all, the British eagerly grasped the tViolations io arms control cede a tree: thwarted in its attempts to monitor Nazi straw. The Germans began pro- menla cannot b overlooked oex- the German Army. during U-boats, and the grim story of ments nno even the most extreme Mr. President, eventually the Allied Nazi aggression unchecked by demo- arms control cused." Thol advocates even hmost the si extreme political lcadcrs,'and even the Allied cratic military power led to World War of the Soviet SALT viola- military establishments, increasingly II, ahiic c of th and arms SALT have accepted German protestations either Barton Whaley summarized the r?f- tions. If detente control have specific violations had not taken fects of Axis arms control breaches buildup in she restrain the Soviet 9the Soviet 19strategic a, arc place, or that they were being correct- and the failure of allied enforcement appeasement ildup the war out only 1980's, are ed. measures before World War II: vo out othe failure The Weimar policy of evading, -cir- The national leaders were entry prey for of we tie? We detente have to ar before recognize can begin to cumventing, and violating their obliga- deception. By failing to demand rigorous shade a new policy for peaceful r'l o tions under the Versailles Treaty en- verification of alleged infractions they shag with new p Soviet olicy ~s. abled the Germans to lay the ground- allowed apathy. By falling to apply sanc- work for the expansion of their army, Lions when Intelligence did occasionally APPEASEMENT IN THE 1020'S AND 1930'S to keep their munitions industry in bring undeniable proof of infractions to COMPARED TO THE 1970's being, to create and expand their air their attention, they showed themselves ini- Mr. President, there are compelling force and navy, and to establish the potent as well. And the opponents' perct,p- reasons to compare th pof nee foundation for the expansion of their more audacious uspinfractions8 aspur of even 1970 tent' and n 1980's, 8 aftermath, to p0's, the period the hire- munitions industry supporting their il- legal army, air force, and navy. Thus, U.S. failure to enforce Soviet war period of the 1920's and 1930's. These obJectlves were accomplished arms control compliance or U.S. fail- Many astute observers have noticed in the early 1920's, ironically, with the ore to take countermeasures can again striking but alarming parallels be- active help and complicity of the lead to world war. tween these two periods of modern Soviet Union. Arms control violations in the 1030's history. The Inter-Allied Control Commis- actually contributed to the outbreak The disarmament provisions of the sion that supervised the disarmament of World War II. In the 1930's, clear 1921 Treaty of Versailles were unpopu- provisions of the Versailles Treaty evidence of Japanese and German vio- lar with the German people, because withdrew from Germany In January lation of the naval treaties was not they were generally considered to be 1927, and Issued a final report stating: challenged by the West. Technical dc- unfair by the German people. Thus Germany fects in the treaties, loopholes or am- ther was popular German support for had the has ver disarmed, has never biguous intelligence evidence were not evasion measures, which the German seven he years has s done everything vrthiand her army, the Relchswehr, devised. The In her responsible for the West's failure to power to deceive and "counter-control" the challenge the violations. Bad policy democratic German Weimar and the Commission appointed to control her disar. and weak will were responsible. British and French Governments mament. Today, we face an increasingly clear knew about some of these German Does this remind us of Soviet behav- pattern of Soviet violations of existing Army evasions, circumventions, and for in the 1970's and 19130's? As Assist- arms control treaties. American failure even outright violations of the Ver- ant Secretary of Defense Richard to challenge these Soviet violations sailles Treaty, but the civilian leaders Perle testified to the House Armed will be more dangerous that any other looked the other way. Many leaders of Services Committee on February 22, course of action because an American the Weimar Republic shared the per- 1984: failure of nerve will only encournct' ception that the disarmament provi- We must, if we are not to face an expand. more aggressive Soviet violations. sions of the Versailles Treaty were ing pattern of Soviet violations, see that Is this history of appeasement going unfair to Germany. These German such violations carry costs at least equal to to be repeated? Is another great West- leaders saw these disarmament provi- the gains they derive from them. ern democracy-this time America- sions as designed to keep Germany in In 1934. Sir Winston Churchill also turning its face away from scrioro; a permanently inferior position to the challenged the British Government treaty violations on the part of an nt allies, rather than permitting the Gcr- over whether or not the Germoims were gressive totalitarian regime? Far Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 S 7680 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE graver potential consequences for the fate of the world are now at stake. Mr. President, I am confident that we can avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. The best way to keep the peace is through continued deterrence and through enforcement of Soviet compliance with existing arms control treaties. APTER DETECTION, WHAT? On July 18, 1979, even the Carter ad- riiinistration's Defense Secretary Harold Brown testified on the conse- quenses of possible Soviet violations of the SALT II Treaty to the Senate For- eign Relations Committee: In considering Soviet compliance with the provisions of SALT II ? ? ? there is a differ- ence between detection of a violation and enforcement, bringing a detected violation to an end. The SALT II Treaty will not be enforced in the courts ? ? ? The issue is not whether we could prove a case to a jury. We do not need proof beyond a reasonable doubt, nor even evidence we can discuss- in detail, to challenge Soviet action. In inter- national agreements, the ultimate enforce moat mechanir:m is our own actions, ? ? ? We could insist on taking certain actions ourselves outside the Treaty to compensate militarily and politically for the violation. Our ultimate remedy would be termination of (the] SALT II Agreement ? ? ? If a prob- lem were not resolved or If we detected a violation which threatened our security, I twedd not hesitate to recommend to the I'r ;ide'nl ? ? ? the ultimate slop of Trealy ;throe:arson. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger long ago stated what the United States should do in the case of Soviet SALT violations. Dr. Kissinger warned Senators and Congressman on June 15, 1972: The possibility exists that the Soviets will treat the Moscow Agreements (SALT Il as r hey have sometimes treated earlier ones, as just another tactical opportunity in the pro- tracted conflict. If this happens, the United States will have to respond. If this agree- ment were being circumvented, obviously we would have to take compensatory steps in the strategic field. During the decade since SALT I, the Soviets have In fact circumvented and violated all the most important provi- sions of SALT I and SALT II, just as they violated most treaties since 1917. I wonder whether the United States ,may now need to fulfill Dr. Kissinger's pledge to take countermeasures. Addressing Congress after signing the SALT II Treaty in June 1979. former President Carter stated: Were the Soviet Union to take the enor- mous risk of trying to violate the treaty in any way that might affect the strategic bal- ance, there is no doubt that we would dis- cover It in time to respond fully and effec- thely. Thus even former President Carter promised to take responsive counter- measures to offset Soviet SALT II vio- lations. What is remarkable about President Reagan's report on Soviet SALT viola- tions is the fact that the Reagan ad- ministration plans to continue comply- ing with all the six arms control trea- ties which the Soviets are violating, in- cluding two unratified treaties. Even more remarkable is the fact that the Reagan administration plans to make absolutely no changes in its military budget or defense programs to offset the military implications of the Soviet cheating. An objective ob- server must conclude either that the Soviet arms control cheating has no military significance at all, or alterna- tively, that U.S. strategic programs are so robust already that they inherently compensate for any Soviet cheating. MILITARY IMPLICATIONS or save,T sAt:r VIOLATIONS I would like to discuss each of these alternatives in sequence. First, I be- lieve that the Soviet cheating does have profound military significance. In fact. Soviet arms control cheating has decisive military significance. In particular, the Illegal Soviet biological and chemical offensive warfare capa- bilities have the effect of severely low- ering the nuclear threshold, making attempted U.S. nuclear deterrence of the Soviet BW/CW capability more likely to result in nuclear war. More- over,, the President's report states for the first time in public that the Sovi- ets have maintained "an offensive bio- logical warfare program and capabili- ties." This is extremely dangerous to world peace, because these weapons are nonnuclear weapons of mass de- struction. The illegal Soviet SS-X-25 and the illegal SS-16 are both mobile ICBM's, and up to 400 of these mobile missiles may be deployed. They are very sur- vivable and therefore of high military significance. This many of these two ICBM's could carry over 800 warheads. The Illegally encrypted SS-X-24 will carry over 1,000 additional counter- force warheads if only 100 are de- ployed; or 2,000 warheads if 200 are deployed. If the SS-X-24 can carry 14 warheads each, like the SS-18, then 200 could carry 2,800 warheads. The encryption of the SS-X-24 suggests this kind of throw-weight and payload. The Illegal Soviet ABM radars will, along with mobile interceptors, signifi- cantly contribute to an illegal Soviet nationwide ABM defense, making it extremely significant militarily. Indeed, over 30 percent of Soviet ICBM warheads can be defended. Finally, the Soviet violations of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty probably allowed the Soviets to develop more' powerful warheads for their new even more highly accurate ICBM's, also making this very significant militarily. Thus it Is reasonable to conclude that at least five of the nine Soviet arms control violations reported by the President are militarily signifi- cant. Second, are U.S. military programs already robust enough to coenpeusate for the military implications of the Soviet violations? The defense and military posture statements for fiscal years 1981 through 1985 indicate that the U.S. strategic decline will not even begin to be arrested until after 1990, and If June .YO, IN 84 Soviet strategic advantages continue to accelerate, the United States may never return to strategle parity with the Soviets. It is thus reasonable to conclude that U.S. military programs are not now robust enough to offset the Soviet strategic advantages gained from their arms control cheating. More significantly, President Reagan has already conceded the first point, that there are military implica- tions of the Soviet violations, in his report on Soviet arms control cht'at- ing, President Reagan stated: "Soviet violations of arms control agreeinenis could create new security risks," Even more ominously, President Reagan stated: Such violations deprive us of the security Itenefitx of amts control directly because of the military consequences of known viola- tions and Indirectly by Inducing suspicion about t.lie existents of tindrtected violations that might have additional military rouse quences. These statements concede that U.S. national security has In fact been harmed by the Soviet cheating. Thus, the only question is how to measure these military implications of the Soviet SALT violations. And as President Reagan stated on January 16, 1984: We must take the Soviet cutlpliauce record into account, both In the develop- ment of our defense program and in our ap proach to arms control. This statement means hnplicitly that the Soviet SALT violations have military implications that may not have been factored into our defense programs. At the very least, the full funding of President Reagan's strategic weapons program is essential in view of their confirmed violations. The President's strategic weapons program itself is quite modest, even In comparison to the strategic program planned by former President Carter. ARE WE IN A NUCLEAR /RSi;zs ALNP.AUY? For example, the Department of De- fense budget request for last year, fiscal year 1984, called for production of zero air-launched cruise missiles 13, ALCM-B. The fiscal year 1984 defense request also planned to Nero produc? Lion of the Trident I submarine launched ballistic missile, SLAM, in fiscal year 1985. Last year. however, Congress Increased ALCM-B produe- lion for fiscal' year 1984 from zero to 240. The fiscal year 1985 Defense budget request again entirely cancels the pro- duction of ALCM-B and reaffirms the planned zeroing of Trident I SLIHM production this year. These are the only two strategic offensive weapons systems which are currently produced for operational. deployment by the United Staten. I know that ALCM -B production has been curtailed because of plans for an advanced cruise missile, and Trident I production has similarly been cur- tailed because of plans for Trident II Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 June 20, 1.984 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE production- But Trident II is still only in the design phase and cannot become operational until 1989 at the earliest. And the ACM will also take several years to become; operational. There will thus be a gap of at least several years between the 1985 produc. tion stoppage of both of these two mis- siles before their successor missiles can finish R&D testing and achieve initial operational capability and begin production. Thus the perception could be cre- ated that the Reagan administration is observing a "nuclear weapons freeze" by canceling production of the only two strategic offensive systems now being produced and deployed. But the Senate soundly defeated the Kennedy- Hatfield "nuclear weapons freeze" res- olution last October, by a vote of 58 to 40. Perhaps the United States should continue ALCM-B and Trident I SLBM production until production can begin on the ACM and Trident II . More than Just 12 of the 31 Poseidon SLBM . submarines could be equipped with the Trident I SLBM, thereby in- creasing their survivability during the dangerous "window of vulnerability." Up to 20 ALCM-B's could be deployed on each of the 120 B-52 bombers equipped with cruise missiles allowed by SALT 11. It may be unwise to have a production gap for both of our only currently deployed new systems in these precarious times of apparent Soviet breakout from SALT I and 11. I know that tight budgetary con- straints are the main reason for the apparently premature production stoppages, but this constraint may demonstrate either that our defense program priorities could be wrong or that we may need somewhat more de- fense funding In selected areas. Continued U.S. unilateral compli- ance with the unratified SALT II Treaty may also be a factor in the ease _r .. ,. viouslY achieve by waiting. (Emphasis added.) Moreover, in March 1981, President Reagan stated that the Soviets have: Sat on the other side of the table no far, knowing that we have unilaterally disarmed to a great extent ? ? ? maybe if we do a little building-it'll be a two-way street. But the following tables illustrate the fact that, despite the above 1980 platform commitments and early Reala it statement, the United States has continued under President Reagan to reduce our strategic forces unilater. ally, and thus has continued to prac- tice unilateral restraint and unilateral disarmament. Prior to even beginning Strategic Arms Reduction Talks- START-the Reagan administration has made or planned the following unilateral reductions: PRESIDENT REAGAN'S STRATEGIC FORCE CUT BACKS S 7681 initial operational capability one year to 1)e? cember 1982. Caneellstlun of KC-10 tanker aircraft pro- curement. Planned B-1 force cut from 250 under 1;'ord to only 100. Failure to deploy sufficient ALCMs on B - 1, reduction to SALT 11 limit of only 20 ALCMs per B- 1, or by 200 ALCMs. No Inland basing and Increased alert rate for B-52 force. Rrtiuclloll of 11 52 alert rate from J:1,,, to 20%, concurrent with accept suer - of addl. tional conventional, sea control and pro Te- ton missions for some B 52s. Planned deactivation of 90 B-52 Os carry- ing over 1,000 ALCMs, UErENSM Reduction of proposed funding for space laser research development. Reduction of Patriot Air Defense missile system. No acceleration of ABM R&D. Ilkaclivated, WKskd. a ptawied 10 deactraatwn, 111aletw nuclear Jcpetry The net effect of this is that the wbaesl Reagan strategic program will have fewer weapons than the Ca t r yeMths 100 Mom-mm MI ICDM's (repla:ensntsl ................................. has M MXsm's ......................................................... 54.. 14talis ROM's .. ...... ....... 160 ................................. a 52-D Im"s ........................................ 80 2 Ildw subs ................. ............. .............. 18 B-1 bombers e ........................................................ 1 2 F%vWm subs so 3/ 70 6 8 57 57 G ACM canwrs .. ........ .... ........................... .. 90 Ni ICUM's' .......................................................... 100 ToW ............................................................ 724 200 160 370 3.300 370 1.080 1.500 6,121 Polaris deaclivats bean sadB Cris, but was coepitttd under Rufm. The United States prrmUf pity ay 100 8-1-8 taaibes, as oprparod ro'TB. Boiled by Fad. es ens compared Is 200 Iervwtlk M8 t>Lmmid by yteis, unsurvwade MX's p SBMACMHRS Y UoNr DECONTINUIZ) U.S. STRATEGIC CTr- DErsNSK SECRETARY WI.IN- BaRGER, 1981-85 ICBM's No deployment of 100 stockpiled Minute- man Ills despite Its authorization by Con- gress In FY 1981 and 1982, and appropria- tion in PY 1982. No upgrade of Minuteman power and air- borne launch control. United States is allowed no more than mode, with no ABM defense. (Only 40 MaXs 120 ALCM-equipped bombers, and we were planned at one point.) reportedly now have planned 90 B- Premature and abrupt deactivation of 52 52's, each equipped with only 12 Titan Ila, carrying a high Percentage--33 ALCM-B's. Percent-of our ICBM megatonnage. I would now like to describe the stand's Reagan strategic builddown in some Continued Polaris submarine deactiva. detail. Despite thepopular myths, the tion-loss of 160 high megatonnage Reagan administration is unilaterally SLBM-26 percent of our SLBM megaton. freezing and building down, nage. The July 1980 Republican Platform Cutback of two Trident submarineo stated: Reduction of Trident construction rate Despite clear danger signals Indicating f tDelay to 1992 completion of Kings Bay that Soviet nuclear power would overtake Trident sub base. that of the United States by the early One-year delay in ELF deployment deci- 1980's, threatening the survival of the sion. with Initial Operational Capability United Slates and making possible, for the further delayed to 1986. first time in postwar history, political corer. Delay and cutback in SLCM deployment cion and defeat, the (Carter] administration on submarines. reduced the size and capabilities of our nu. Planned deactivation of two Posoltlun subs clear forces. (Emphasis added,) carrying 32 SLBMs. The platform went on to say: eacti ... Unilateral restraint by the United Band abrut AND dALC'l States has failed to bring reductions by the B 52Ds, carrying h avy megatoni geef 80 Soviet Unione? ? ? (the Carter administra. percent of our bomber megatontlake. done has practiced unilateral disarnla- Reduction of ALCM yearly proditetIol ment and removed any Incentives for the rate first from 480 to 440, then to 360, then SovicL to negoLlaLc for what they could ob- to 240, then to zero, delay of B-52 ALCM ca strate- gic program throughout the 1980's and into the early 1990's. The effectivent?ss of the bomber Improvements will be reduced by the fact that they will mainly carry gravity bombs, rather than advanced penetration weapons and cruise missiles. Moreover, the rump Reagan MX program has yet to be given a surviv- able basing mode-and It is very un- likely that the Reagan 'administration will ever come up with a really vinble alternative to the multiple protectile structure basing mode. Under Secretary of Defense Richa rci DeLauer testified to the Senate De. fense Appropriations Subcommittee on March 13, 1984, that: The foundation of our strategy and pro- gram is built on the adequacy of our strate- gic nuclear forces to deter aggression or co- erelon, thus denying (he Soviets the oppor tunity to checkmate us through nuclear dominance. The opportunities for modern conventional defense depend upon this foundation having been established. DeLaucr added that "the President's No. 1 priority is strategic moderniza- tion." This testimony seems refuted by the strategic cutbacks noted above. Thus we must conclude that the Soviet cheating does have military sig- nificance, and that the Soviets already have strategic superiority over the United States. As President Reagan said on March 31, 1982: "The Soviet Union does have a definite margin of superiority- enough so there is risk, and there is what I have called a window of vulner- ability." President Reagan again stated in his speech to the Nation on the MX ICBM on November 22, 1982, that the United States is inferior to the U.S.S.R. in strategic capability. On March 23, 1983, President Reagan fur- ther declared that the Soviets had n "present margin of superiority." Defense Secretary Weinberger stated in the fiscal year 1984 defell`e posture statement that "the tovivts have acquired a margin of nuclear su- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2010/04/28: CIA-RDP87M00539RO01101480007-7 June 20, 1984 CONGRESSIONAL RECORD - SENATE PRESIDENT REAGAN'S REPORT TO CONGRESS ON SOVIET SALT AND OTHER ARMS CONTROL TREATY VIOLATIONS --Contintud Arms CcnIrol holy vrulalwn 1 ? b-F,-.,F hats ICBM eouvoit to duck. valid ICBM artrpleces Xeepmg IB SS-9 ICBM's at an am let ran rlkg34 rational t r Ju wonoo of Yresv!tnl t IUlplrnent Omluty or eo,d,eCe Sewlut McCtore's wrt111Isv01e0 ptadra