NAMIBIA/ANGOLA: POSSIBLE NEW US PROPOSALS-- COMMENTS FOR YOUR 28 FEBRUARY MEETING WITH MR. MCFARLANE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87M00539R000800990036-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 1, 2010
• Sequence Number: 36
• Publication Date: February 28, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/29: CIA-RDP87M00539R000800990036-4
,CROSS REF:
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/29: CIA-RDP87M00539R000800990036-4
0:?.TROLV;J:
~RIOR PAPERS ON THIS SUBJECT: NO YES
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/29: CIA-RDP87M00539R000800990036-4
,,' 4
TRANSMITTAAL.SLIP
DATE
TO: e
ROOM NO.
BUILDING
REMARKS:
FROM: 7-E-47 CIA Hqs,
ROOM NO.
BUILDING
EXTENSION
FORM NO. REPLACES FORM 36-8 (47)
1 FEB 56 24 1 WHICH MAY BE USED.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/29: CIA-RDP87M00539R000800990036-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/29: CIA-RDP87MOO539ROO0800990036-4
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
NIC #01065-85
National Intelligence Council 28 February 1985
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
FROM: Frederick L. Wettering'Ll
National Intelligence Officer for Africa
SUBJECT: Namibia/Angola: Possible New US Proposals--
Comments for Your 28 February Meeting with Mr. McFarlane
1. Per your request, DDI/ALA is forwarding separately to you a
typescript on the Angola negotiation scenario.
2. Assistant Secretary of State Chet Crocker will meet with
Bud McFarlane Friday evening, 1 March, to discuss a new proposal to be
passed to the relevant parties on Cuban troop withdrawal. It's my
understanding that State will propose a formula stipulating a withdrawal
of from 20-40,000 Cubans in parallel with the 9-12 month duration of
implementation of UNSCR 435 in Namibia, with an explicit understanding on
withdrawal of the residual Cuban force (10,000 or so) in the next 1-2
years.
3. Chet Crocker is likely to advance the following arguments:
-- The negotiations are at an impasse, and we need to advance new
proposals or risk collapse of the entire negotiation.
-- All three parties--MPLA, UNITA, SAG--have authorized State to try
and develop a new formula on Cuban troop withdrawal. During
recent talks with UNITA and the SAG, neither objected to a new
proposal entailing a Cuban residual force.
There is no White House prohibition on the question of raising
proposals about a Cuban residual force. A reduced Cuban
presence, limited by time, will not materially harm Savimbi's
prospects.
CL BY SIGNER Q ael
LE CL OAnR //
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/29: CIA-RDP87MOO539ROO0800990036-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/29: CIA-RDP87M00539R000800990036-4
The new formula will not be presented as a US position but rather
a negotiating concept.
MPLA-UNITA reconciliation talks, brokered by Zaire President
Mobutu and encouraged by us, may soon begin.
4. I submit these arguments do not address the following
counterpoints:
Our analysis is that the current military situation is evolving
in Savimbi's favor. Why should we not exercise patience and wait
for the MPLA position to change rather than table a proposal of
questionable value to our interests, while still keeping channels
open by periodic shuttle diplomacy.
Our analysis is that ultimately UNITA and the South Africans will
oppose a residual Cuban presence.
The nut of the question is whether UNITA is disadvantaged by a
residual Cuban presence. The DDI analysis, with which I concur,
says it will in the most likely scenario.
Diplomatic niceties aside, we must be prepared to live with what
we propose.
Our analysis is that there is no real prospect for UNITA-MPLA
reconciliation at this time and that any new talks will fail,
probably quickly. Earlier talks in 1977 and 1981-82 followed
this pattern.
Additionally, the verification problem; regarding Cuban withdrawal
and continuing presence is formidable and should be seriously
addressed prior to tabling a US proposal.
5. You may wish to pass the DDI memo and the foregoing to
Mr. McFarlane.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/29: CIA-RDP87M00539R000800990036-4
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/29: CIA-RDP87M00539R000800990036-4
SUBJECT: Namibia/Angola: Possible New US Proposals--
Comments for Your 28 February Meeting with Mr. McFarlane
NIO/AF/FLWettering:mjj
Distribution:
Orig - DCI
1 - DDCI
1-ER
1 - DDO
1 - C/AF/DDO
1 - D/ALA
1 - C/NIC
1 - VC/NIC
2 - NIO/AF
3
SECRET
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/06/29: CIA-RDP87M00539R000800990036-4