ECONOMIC AND SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 105
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 26, 2011
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: June 4, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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Economic and Security Implications
of Structural Change
The Washington Hilton, Washington, D.C.
3 - 4 June 1985
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Contents
A. Conference Program
DAY I. TECHNOLOGY AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE
B. Defining the Problem: The Determinants of Structural Change
and its Inevitability
C. Structural Change and the Future of the International
Economic System
D. Structural Change and International Competitiveness
E. Structural Change and Adjustment to Competition
in the Industrialized Countrie3: Ihe Coming Trade Wars?
F. Implications of Structural Change
for Third World Economies: Winners and Losers
DAY II. GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE
G. Assessing Structural Change
from the Standpoint of Intelligence Analysis
H. Implications of Structural Change for the Western Alliance
I. Structural Change and East-West Relations
J. Structural Change and National Security:
Implications for Strategic Vulnerability and Dependence
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CONFERENCE PROGRAM
Economic and Security Implications of Structural Change
The Washington Hilton, Washington, D.C.
3 - 4 June 1985
DAY I. TECHNOLOGY AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE
Moderator: Office of Global Issues
8:30 - 9:00 Coffee and pastries
9:00 - 9:10 Welcoming remarks
William J. Casey
Director of Central Intelligence
9:10 - 9:30 Keynote for Day I
"Defining the Problem: The Determinants of
Structural Change and its Inevitability"
Leo Cherne
President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board
9:30 - 9:50 Structural Change and the Future of the International
Economic System
Overview: Peter G. Peterson
Chairman, Peterson, Jacobs and Company
9:50 - 10:10 Structural Change and International Competitiveness
Overview: C. Fred Bergsten
Director, Institute for International Economics
10:10 - 10:30 Break
10:30 - 11:15 Panel discussion:
Charles P. Kindleberger, MIT
Mordechai Kreinin. MIchigan State University
Office of Global Issues
11:15 - 12:00 Open discussion (all conference participants)
12:00 - 1:00 Lunch (Speaker: James Fallows, Washington editor
of The Atlantic; author of "The Changing American
Economic Landscape")
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1:30 - 1:50 Structural Change and Adjustment to Competition in
the Industrialized Countries: The Coming Trade Wars?
Overview: Roy E. Moor
Chief Economist, First Chicago Bank
1:50 - 2:35 Panel discussion:
Robert E. Baldwin, University of Wisconsin
Paul R. Krugman, MIT
Howard Rosen, Institute for International Economics
2:35 - 3:05 Open discussion
3:05 - 3:25 Break
3:25 - 3:45 Implications of Structural Change for Third World
Economies: Winners and Losers
Overview: Richard Feinberg
Overseas Development Council
3:45 - 4:30 Panel discussion:
Henry Owen, Consultants International Group
Kent Calder, Princeton University
Peter Morici, National Planning Association
4:30 - 5:00 Open discussion
5:00 - 6:30 Cocktails
DAY II. GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE
Moderator: Office of Global Issues
8:30 - 9:00 Coffee and pastries
9:00 - 9:20 Keynote for Day II
"Assessing Structural Change from the Standpoint
of Intelligence Analysis"
James R. Schlesinger
Georgetown Center for Strategic and International
Studies
9:20 - 9:40 Implications of Structural Change for the
Western Alliance
Overview: Robert Gilpin
Princeton University
9:40 - 10:25
Panel discussion:
Robert Keohane, Brandeis University
Michapl Aho Council on Foreign Relations
Office of European Analysis
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10:25
10:45
11:45
- 10:45
- 11:30
- 12:45
Break
Open discussion
Lunch (Speaker: Robert J. Samuelson, syndicated
1:00
- 1:20
columnist, Newsweek magazine)
Structural Change and East-West Relations
Overview: Raymond Vernon
Harvard University
1:20
- 2:00
Panel discussion:
Robert Campbell, Indiana University
John Hardt, Congressional
Research Service
of Soviet Analysis
Office
2:00
- 2:30
Open discussion
2:30
- 2:50
Break
2:50
- 3:10
Structural Change and National Security:
Implications for Strategic Vulnerability and
Dependence
Overview: John L.
McLucas
Executive Vice President, COMSAT Corporation
3:10
- 3:55
Panel discussion:
Klaus Knorr, Princeton University
Stephen Krasner,
Stanford University
Office of Global Issues
3:55
- 4:20
Open discussion
4:20
- 4:30
Concluding remarks
John N. McMahon
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
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wanoid ay4 em!u990 .8
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DEFINING THE PROBLEM: THE DETERMINANTS AND INEVITABILITY
OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE
Structural change is a far-reaching process in which the major
components of a national economy shift in relative importance over
time.
By altering the basic framework of an economic system, structural
change can trigger shifts in a country's internal political system as
well as its political, economic and strategic relationships
internationally.
? Major structural changes can re-arrange the relative importance
of entire sectors (manufacturing, services, agriculture)._
? Particular industries can also be affected (high-technology vs.
basic industry, etc.).
? Shifts between regions of large economies -- or regions
composed of several countries -- are often the most
visible evidence of structural change.
Because the proccess has so many implications, it can be difficult to
define what is meant by "structural change." There are two elements
that are usually involved in to all changes of this type:
? The economic forces at work are broader than cyclical or
market-oriented changes;
? The changes are brought about by shifts in technological
advance prompted by technological advance.
Technology can thus be considered a key driving element behind
structural change -- because the development and propagation of new
technologies increase opportunities to invest and expand output, and
so alter a country's comparative advantage. Technology further
enables gains in productivity, the principal factor in increased
industrial dynamism.
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STAT
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Background
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Current Population Trends, 1960-2000
tzKf'
Current Population
705133 5-85
100 million and above
50-100 million
15-50 million
Less than 15 million
Data not available
Population by Country Group,
1960, 1982, 2000
Low-income economies
Middle-income economies
Industrial economies
East European
nonmarket economies
Source: The World Bank.
1960
1982
2000
Billion people
Shares of Total Population, 1982
Middle-income
economies
? East European
nonmarket economies
Industrial
economie,s
Low-income
economies
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Structural Change in Composition of the Labor Force
in Six Industrial countries, 1955-75
Note scale change
Agriculture
Industry
Percent Percent
40
30
20
Japan
55
50
Services
Percent
65
60
Ga.
France
oz?
West
Germany
45
55
40 =
cr,== 50
c,==.
35 45
10 United Stater.*
=
United Kingdom
30
1955 60 65 70 75 25 1955
40
60 65 70 75 35 1955
60
65
70
75
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Million Persons at Midyear
Population
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
OECD
641.9
681.5
715.7
751.3
775.2
781.6
787.1
792.6
798.2
United States
180.7
194.3
205.1
216.0
225.1
227.7
230.0
232.3
234.5
Australia
10.4
11.4
12.7
13.8
14.4
14.6
14.8
15.1
15.3
Austria
7.0
7.3
7.4
7.6
7.6
7.6
7.6
7.6
7.5
Canada
17.9
19.7
21.3
22.7
23.8
24.1
24.4
24.6
24.9
Finland
4.4
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
Iceland
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Japan
94.1
98.9
104.3
111.6
115.9
116.8
117.6
118.4
119.3
New Zealand
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.2
Norway
3.6
3.7
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
Portugal
9.0
9.1
9.0
9.4
9.8
9.9
9.9
10.0
10.0
Spain
30.6
32.1
33.9
35.6
37.2
37.5
37.8
38.0
38.2
Sweden
7.5
7.7
8.0
8.2
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3
Switzerland
5.4
5.9
6.3
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.5
Turkey
28.2
32.0
35.8
40.8
45.0
46.0
47.1
48.1
49.2
European Community
240.5
252.0
260.4
267.2
269.5
270.4
271.1
271.6
272.1
Belgium
9.1
9.4
9.6
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.9
9.9
9.9
Denmark
4.6
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
France
45.7
48.8
50.8
52.8
53.6
53.9
54.1
54.4
54.7
Greece
8.3
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.5
9.6
9.7
9.8
9.9
Ireland
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
Italy
50.2
52.0
53.7
55.6
56.4
56.5
56.5
56.6
56.8
Luxembourg
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Netherlands
11.5
12.3
13.0
13.7
14.0
14.1
14.2
14.3
14.4
United Kingdom
52.6
54.4
55.5
56.0
55.9
56.0
56.0
56.0
56.0
West Germany
55.4
58.6
60.7
61.8
61.3
61.6
61.7
61.6
61.5
Less developed countries
Bangladesh
54.6
60.3
67.4
76.2
85.4
88.1
90.8
93.6
96.5
Burma
22.8
24.9
27.4
30.2
32.7
33.4
34.1
34.8
35.5
Brazil
71.7
83.1
95.7
108.7
119.6
122.4
125.3
128.3
131.3
Egypt
26.3
29.8
33.2
36.8
40.9
42.1
43.4
44.6
45.8
India
445.9
494.9
553.6
617.2
670.8
685.1
699.9
715.1
730.6
Indonesia
100.7
112.3
122.7
137.5
151.4
154.9
158.5
162.1
165.8
(continued)
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0
0
0
0
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Million Persons at Midyear
Population
(continued)
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Less developed countries (continued)
Iran
21.6
25.0
28.9
33.4
37.6
38.8
40.0
41.2
42.5
Mexico
38.6
45.1
52.8
61.5
68.4
70.1
71.9
73.8
75.7
Nigeria
42.4
48.7
56.3
65.7
74.6
77.1
79.7
82.4
85.2
Pakistan
50.4
57.5
65.7
74.7
82.4
85.2
88.4
91.5
94.1
Philippines
28.6
33.3
38.7
44.4
49.3
50.5
51.7
53.0
54.3
South Korea
25.1
29.1
33.0
36.7
39.0
39.6
40.1
40.7
41.4
Thailand
27.5
32.1
37.1
42.4
46.6
47.7
48.7
49.7
50.7
Communist countries
1,039.5
1,134.8
1,264.8
1,386.6
1,459.1
1,475.4
1,491.6
1,510.1
1,528.0
USSR and Eastern Europe
311.0
330.7
345.8
360.5
372.1
374.9
377.6
380.4
383.4
USSR
214.3
230.9
242.8
254.5
263.4
265.5
267.7
270.0
272.5
Eastern Europe
96.7
99.8
103.0
106.0
108.7
109.4
109.9
110.4
110.9
Bulgaria
7.9
8.2
8.5
8.7
8.8
8.9
8.9
8.9
8.9
Czechoslovakia
13.7
14.1
14.3
14.8
15.2
15.3
15.3
15.4
15.4
East Germany
17.1
17.0
17.1
16.8
16.7
16.7
16.7
16.7
16.7
Hungary
10.0
10.2
10.3
10.5
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.7
10.7
Poland
29.6
31.3
32.5
34.0
35.3
35.6
35.9
36.2
36.6
Romania
18.4
19.0
20.3
21.2
22.0
22.2
22.4
22.5
22.6
Other
Albania
1.6
1.9
2.1
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.8
2.8
China
650.7
715.5
820.4
917.9
971.8
983.4
994.9
1,008.2
1,020.9
Cuba
7.0
7.8
8.5
9.3
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.8
9.9
Kampuchea
5.4
6.5
7.1
6.7
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
Laos
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
Mongolia
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
North Korea
10.5
12.1
13.9
15.9
17.5
17.9
18.3
18.7
19.2
Vietnam
31.5
37.1
42.4
47.9
52.5
53.6
54.9
56.2
57.6
Yugoslavia
18.4
19.4
20.4
21.3
22.1
22.3
22.5
22.7
22.8
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Million Persons at Midyear
Labor Force a
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
OECD
United States b
71.49
76.40
84.89
95.45
106.56
108.54
110.32
111.87
113.23
Canada b
6.58
7.32
8.49
10.05
11.31
11.65
11.98
12.03
12.26
Japan b
44.33
47.01
50.97
52.77
55.45
55.98
56.56
57.22
58.35
European Community
France
19.81
20.32
21.41
22.23
23.08
23.15
23.27
23.54
23.50
Italy
21.10
20.20
20.03
20.42
21.33
21.63
21.81
21.86
21.96
United Kingdom
24.10
25.09
24.88
25.49
26.09
26.24
26.32
26.10
26.05
West Germany b
26.28
26.85
26.74
26.65
26.77
27.03
27.16
27.12
27.08
Communist countries
USSR and Eastern Europe
158
165
177
190
200
202
204
205
NA
USSR c
110.13
116.49
125.61
135.77
144.20
146.07
147.75
149.22
150.52
Eastern Europe
47.4
48.8
51.9
54.3
56.1
56.3
56.3
56.0
NA
Bulgaria
4.42
4.26
4.55
4.66
4.73
4.72
4.72
4.80
NA
Czechoslovakia
6.06
6.48
7.03
7.44
7.67
7.74
7.77
7.81
NA
East Germany
8.51
8.39
8.53
8.71
8.93
9.07
8.76
8.81
NA
Hungary
4.74
4.78
4.99
5.09
5.08
4.85
5.00
5.00
4.97
Poland
14.13
15.21
16.89
18.28
19.33
19.58
19.65
19.12
NA
Romania d
9.54
9.68
9.88
10.15
10.32
10.35
10.38
10.43
NA
Other
China
NA
286.70
NA
381.68
405.81
418.96
432.80
447.06
NA
Cuba
NA
NA
4.18 f
4.45
? 4.85
4.99
5.22
5.43
NA
Vietnam
8.50
9.70
10.95
12.50
5.50
26.50
? 27.50
27.9
29.0
Yugoslavia h
7.07
7.81
8.07
8.21
8.85
9.03
9.21
NA
NA
a Unless otherwise indicated, data include the armed forces
and the unemployed.
h Annual averages of monthly data.
Data are from Estimates and Projections of the Labor
Force and Civilian Employment in the USSR, by Stephen
Rapawy, Foreign Economic Report No. 10, US Department
of Commerce, September 1976, p. 19.
d Excluding the armed forces.
c Data are as of the end of the year.
(Data are for 1971.
Excluding the armed forces and prior to 1979 South
Vietnam.
h Excluding those employed abroad and the armed forces.
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Million Persons at Midyear
Agricultural Labor Force
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
OECD
United States
5.57
4.48
3.57
3.50
3.51
3.53
3.52
3.57
3.54
Canada
0.80 ,
0.69
0.60
0.56
0.59
0.58
0.60
0.56
0.59
Japan
12.80
10.50
8.49
6.38
5.86
5.51
5.33
5.25
NA
European Community
France
4.30
3.58
2.82
2.10
1.89
1.84
1.79
1.76
NA
Italy
6.51
5.03
3.84
3.24
2.98
2.90
2.73
2.52
NA
United Kingdom
0.98
0.95
0.78
0.67
0.65
0.66
0.64
0.64
NA
West Germany
,
3.62
2.88
2.26
1.77
1.48
1.44
1.40
1.38
1.37
Communist countries
USSR and Eastern Europe
65.7
57.9
53.8
49.2
45.9
45.2
44.7
NA
NA
USSR a
45.44
40.04
37.50
34.85
32.72
32.19
31.66
31.13
30.60
Eastern Europe
20.2
17.9
16.3
14.4
13.2
13.0
13.0
NA
NA
Bulgaria
2.49
1.93
1.64
1.40
1.23
1.19
1.15
NA
NA
Czechoslovakia
1.47
1.26
1.18
1.03
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.99
NA
East Germany
1.56
1.38
1.08
0.93
0.86
0.91
0.92
0.92
NA
Hungary
1.83
1.42
1.26
1.09
1.02
1.01
1.05
1.06
1.08
Poland
6.66
6.39
6.32
6.09
5.90
5.88
5.92
5.92
NA
Romania
6.22
5.48
4.85
3.84
3.17
3.05
3.00
2.99
NA
Other
China b
NA
235.34
NA
NA
305.82
313.71
322.27
332.78
NA
Cuba
NA
NA
0.92 c
0.92
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
NA
Vietnam d
6.50
6.75
7.65
8.70
15.10
15.65
16.35
15.70
15.80
Yugoslavia
4.14
4.12
4.01
3.21
2.69
2.53
2.40
NA
NA
a Data are from Estimates and Projections of the Labor
Force and Civilian Employment in the USSR, by Stephen
Rapawy, Foreign Economic Report No. 10, US Department
of Commerce, September 1976, p. 19.
b Yearend data are for collective and individual laborers in
rural area; include some nonagricultural workers.
Data are for 1971.
d Including South Vietnam beginning in 1979.
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Million Persons at Midyear
Nonagricultural Labor Force a
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
OECD
United States
65.92
71.92
81.32
91.95
103.05
105.02
106.80
108.30
109.69
Canada
5.79
6.62
7.88
9.49
10.72
11.07
11.39
11.47
11.67
Japan
31.53 '
36.51
42.48
46.39
49.59
50.47
51.23
51.97
NA
European Community
France
15.50
16.74
18.59
20.13
21.19
21.31
21.48
21.78
NA
Italy
14.59
15.17
16.19
17.18
18.34
18.73
19.08
19.33
NA
United Kingdom
23.12
24.14
24.10
24.82
25.44
25.58
25.67
25.46
NA
West Germany
22.66
23.97
24.48
24.88
25.29
25.59
25.76
25.74
25.71
Communist countries
USSR and Eastern Europe
91.8
107
124
141
154
157
159
NA
NA
USSR b
64.70
76.46
88.11
100.92
111.48
113.88
116.09
118.08
119.92
Eastern Europe
27.2
30.9
35.6
40.0
43.0
43.3
43.3
NA
NA
Bulgaria
1.93
2.34
2.91
3.27
3.50
3.53
3.57
NA
NA
Czechoslovakia
4.59
5.22
5.85
6.41
6.69
6.76
6.79
6.82
NA
East Germany
6.95
7.00
7.46
7.78
8.07
8.16
7.85
7.89
NA
Hungary
2.90
3.35
3.73
4.00
4.06
3.84
3.95
1.94
3.89
Poland
7.47
8.82
10.57
12.19
13.50
13.70
13.73
13.20
NA
Romania c
3.31
4.20
5.03
6.31
7.15
7.30
7.38
7.44
NA
Other
China
NA
51.36
NA
NA
99.99
105.25
110.53
114.28
117.46
Cuba
NA
NA
1.48 f
1.71
? 1.87 s
NA
NA
NA
NA
Vietnam h
2.00
2.95
3.30
3.80
10.40
10.85
11.15
12.20
13.20
Yugoslavia i
2.93
3.69
4.06
5.00
6.16
6.50
6.81
NA
NA
a Unless otherwise indicated, data include the armed forces. e State sector only.
b Data are from Estimates and Projections of the Labor f Data are for 1971.
Force and Civilian Employment in the USSR, by Stephen s Data are for 1978.
Rapawy, Foreign Economic Report No. 10, US Department b Excluding the armed forces and prior to 1979, South
of Commerce, September 1976, p. 19. Vietnam.
c Excluding the armed forces. i Excluding those employed abroad and the armed forces.
d Yearend data are workers and staff plus individual workers
in cities and towns.
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Million Persons, Annual Average
Industrial Employment a
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
OECD
United States
22.00
24.31
26.08
25.30
29.80
29.14
29.00
27.02
27.02
Canada
1.91 .
2.23
2.36
2.61
2.88
2.93
2.98
2.70
2.62
Japan
12.38
15.01
17.88
18.37
18.74
19.18
19.30
19.21
NA
European Community
France
6.98
7.64
7.92
7.85
7.49
7.41
7.20
7.05
NA
Italy
6.86
7.17
7.59
7.66
7.64
7.77
7.72
7.59
NA
United Kingdom
11.18
11.12
10.53
9.67
9.34
8.95
8.03
7.57
NA
West Germany
11.91
12.50
12.46
11.24
11.09
11.15
10.89
10.49
10.12
Communist countries
USSR and Eastern Europe
34.7
41.1
47.2
51.6
54.7
55.1
55.5
NA
NA
USSR
22.62
27.45
31.59
34.05
36.50
36.89
37.24
37.61
37.79
Eastern Europe
12.1
13.7
15.6
17.6
18.2
18.2
18.3
NA
NA
Bulgaria
0.72
0.90
1.09
1.22
1.22
1.22
1.25
NA
NA
Czechoslovakia
2.26
2.48
2.67
2.83
2.94
2.95
2.95
2.96
NA
East Germany
2.78
2.78
2.85
3.07
3.13
3.15
3.16
3.35
NA
Hungary
1.39
1.57
1.81
1.82
1.66
1.61
1.62
1.60
1.58
Poland
3.01
3.50
4.12
4.68
4.77
4.76
4.74
4.49
NA
Romania
1.91
2.47
3.04
3.94
4.52
4.54
4.55
4.61
NA
Other
China b
29.79
18.28
28.09
42.84
53.40
56.00
57.96
59.30
NA
Cuba c
NA
NA
0.57 d
0.68
0.90
0.85
0.87
0.89
NA
Vietnam e
0.75
0.95
1.10
1.25
2.01
2.15
2.25
2.25
2.25
Yugoslavia
1.07
1.38
1.45
1.84
2.10
2.17
2.23
NA
NA
a Including employment in manufacturing, mining, and e State sector only.
construction. d Data are for 1971.
b yearend data. e Including South Vietnam beginning in 1979.
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STAT
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Background
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Gross National Product Per Capita, 1983 (in 1983 US $)
More than $10,000
Bermuda
Brunei
Canada
Denmark
American Samoa
Australia
Austria
Bahamas, The
Belgium
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
East Germany
Faroe Islands
Algeria
Andorra
Antigua and Barbuda
Argentina
Bahrain
Barbados
Belize
Brazil
Chile
China-Taiwan
Colombia
Cook Islands
Costa Rica
Cuba
Albania
Angola
Anguilla
Bolivia
Botswana
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Congo
Djibouti
Dominica
Egypt
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Gambia, The
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Benin
Bhutan
Burma
Burundi
Central African
Republic
Chad
China-Mainland
702620 (A04872) 8-84
Greenland
Kuwait
Liechtenstein
Nauru
Norway
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Sweden
$5,001 to $10,000
Finland
France
French Polynesia
Gabon
Guam
Hong Kong
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Japan
Libya
Luxembourg
Martinique
Monaco
Netherlands
New Caledonia
$1,001 to $5,000
Cyprus
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Falkland Islands
Fiji
French Guiana
Gilbraltar
Greece
Guadeloupe
Guatemala
Iran
Iraq
Ivory Coast
Jamaica
Ghana
Grenada
Guyana
Honduras
Indonesia
Kenya
Kiribati
Lebanon
Liberia
Madagascar
Maldives
Mauritania
Morocco
Namibia
Comoros
Ethiopia
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Haiti
India
Kampuchea
Laos
Lesotho
Malawi
Jordan
Macau
Malaysia
Malta
Mauritius
Mexico
Mongolia
Netherlands
Antilles
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Portugal
Puerto Rico
$401 to $1,000
Nicaragua
Nigeria
North Korea
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
St. Christopher
and Nevis
St. Vincent and
the Grenadines
Senegal
Solomon Islands
Sri Lanka
Sudan
Swaziland
Less than $401
Mali
Mozambique
Nepal
Niger
Pakistan
Rwanda
Sao Tome and
Principe
Sierre Leone
Somalia
Switzerland
United Arab Emirates
United States
West Germany
New Zealand
Oman
Poland
Singapore
Trinidad and Tobago
United Kingdom
USSR
Virgin Islands (U.S.)
Yugoslavia
Reunion
Romania
St. Lucia
San Marino
Seychelles
South Africa
South Korea
Spain
Suriname
Syria
Tunisia
Turkey
Uruguay
Venezuela
Thailand
Tonga
Turks and Caicos
Islands
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Wallis and Futuna
Islands
Western Samoa
Yemen Arab Republic
Yemen, People's Demo-
cratic Republic of
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Tanzania
Togo
Uganda
Upper Volta
Vietnam
Western Sahara
Zaire
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2.
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World Gross National Product and Population, 1983
Percent
Developed
non-Communist countries
European Community
Less developed
non-Communist countries
Communist countries
Total GNP: 13,300 Billion 1983 US$
Other 7.1
China 2.6
USSR 13.8
Other LDCs 12.8
India 1.4
Brazil 2.3
Other EC 12.4
United States 24.9
Japan 8.7
Other Developed 9.1
West Germany 4.9
Total Population: 4.7 Billion Persons
Other 5.0
China 21.6
USSR 5.8
Other LDCs 31.7
United States 5.0
Japan 2.5
Other Developed 4.3
West Germany 1.3
Other EC 4.5
Brazil 2.8
India 15.5
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World Gross National Product and Population, 1983
Percent
Developed
non-Communist countries
European Community
Less developed
non-Communist countries
Communist countries
Total GNP: 13,300 Billion 1983 US $
Other 7.1
China 2.6
USSR 13.8
Other LDCs 12.8
India 1.4
Brazil 2.3
Other EC 12.4
United States 24.9
Japan 8.7
Other Developed 9.1
West Germany 4.9
Total Population: 4.7 Billion Persons
Other 5.0
China 21.6
USSR 5.8
Other LDCs 31.7
United States 5.0
Japan 2.5
Other Developed 4.3
West Germany 1.3
Other EC 4.5
Brazil 2.8
India 15.5
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C\I
Real Gross National Product Comparisons
United Kingdom
West Germany
United States
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'Growth at fact
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Billion 1983 US $
Estimated Real Gross National Product at Market Prices 3
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
World
5,350
6,850
8,800
10,700
12,500
12,700
13,000
13,000
13,300
Developed countries
3,460
4,470
5,580
6,490
7,590
7,680
7,830
7,790
7,970
United States
1,589.7
2,003.8
2,340.9
2,655.7
3,190.0
3,180.4
3,264.2
3,202.9
3,310.5
Australia
64.6
82.0
108.0
130.2
145.3
147.6
153.6
152.4
150.5
Canada
127.5
168.2
212.3
270.6
315.4
318.5
331.2
317.3
326.9
Japan
236.4
381.4
649.5
814.7
997.1
1,046.4
1,088.6
1,123.3
1,157.0
Spain
52.6
79.0
106.8
139.7
151.6
154.0
154.3
156.2
159.4
Sweden
46.9
60.3
74.3
84.4
88.7
90.2
89.7
90.1
91.6
Switzerland
54.5
70.4
86.5
90.1
93.6
97.9
99.3
98.1
98.2
European Community
1,100
1,380
1,720
1,960
2,260
2,280
2,280
2,290
2,300
Belgium
37.1
47.4
60.1
70.4
79.0
81.5
80.6
81.5
81.5
France
204.8
271.0
352.0
428.2
497.6
503.0
504.4
512.4
514.9
Italy
152.4
196.3
265.5
299.1
347.6
361.2
361.7
360.4
355.1
Netherlands
61.2
77.4
101.2
118.2
133.7
134.8
133.7
131.6
133.3
United Kingdom
275.0
321.6
363.2
401.9
445.5
433.8
428.3
438.3
449.2
West Germany
318.3
405.8
497.9
552.5
645.0
656.9
656.3
649.5
657.7
Less developed countries
620
840
1,160
1,630
2,030
2,130
2,160
2,180
2,190
Argentina
60.3
74.9
93.0
107.7
117.3
118.1
111.1
104.6
106.7
Brazil
64.1
95.2
137.8
230.6
296.8
320.2
309.2
309.2
296.8
China (Taiwan)
8.1
12.3
19.3
28.3
43.7
46.6
49.2
50.9
53.9
Egypt
10.3
13.6
15.2
19.8
27.5
30.0
32.4
34.3
36.0
India
80.3
92.2
117.0
133.2
147.2
159.0
167.2
168.1
179.0
Mexico
66.7
94.1
131.6
175.8
'4
223.4
242.0
261.7
264.3
251.1
Pakistan
17.1
23.0
19.1
21.8
27.7
29.5
31.2
33.1
35.6
South Korea
13.2
18.1
29.6
47.0
69.9
65.5
69.8
73.8
80.5
OPEC
146
204
296
457
571
581
574
571
565
Iran
57.7
79.7
137.9
225.3
152.2
101.9
74.4
72.5
76.1
Nigeria
26.8
34.5
36.1
52.6
66.2
68.7
67.1
59.7
59.1
Saudi Arabia
15.6
25.1
41.7
76.0
109.4
121.4
131.2
138.0
128.3
Venezuela
27.9
39.8
50.5
64.2
77.3
77.1
77.0
75.4
72.4
(continued)
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Estimated Real Gross National Product at Market Prices a
(continued)
Billion 1983 US $
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Communist countries
1,270
1,540
2,050
2,570
2,890
2,940
2,970
3,030
3,130
USSR and Eastern Europe
1,110
1,330
1,760
2,180
2,410
2,430
2,460
2,500
2,570
USSR b
758.6
904.9
1,246.5
1,536.8
1,700.4
1,720.3
1,752.1
1,787.0
1,843.4
Eastern Europe c
350
424
511
648
714
711
704
710
723
Bulgaria
21.9
30.0
38.4
48.3
52.2
50.6
52.1
---- 53.8
53.8
Czechoslovakia
67.5
75.9
89.9
106.0
115.3
117.8
117.1
118.8
120.8
East Germany
82.8
95.8
111.8
132.5
145.6
148.7
151.8
151.8
154.8
Hungary
38.8
47.1
54.7
64.3
70.4
71.1
71.1
72.1
71.8
Poland
101.1
125.9
153.2
209.8
222.8
217.4
205.8
204.6
212.3
Romania
38.1
49.4
62.8
86.9
107.3
105.5
106.0
108.5
109.7
Other
China
NA
108.3
161.7
212.2
269.3
283.3
291.9
313.5
341.7
North Korea
4.6
7.3
9.6
15.8
17.0
17.7
18.1
18.1
18.1
Yugoslavia d
36.3
50.6
68.7
92.2
118.5
121.2
122.9
123.8
122.3
Data for the non-Communist countries were converted
from national currencies by using the 1983 Par Rate/Mar-
ket Rate factors.
b The estimate of Soviet GNP presented here is expressed in
"geometric mean dollars," which are derived by applying an
average of the US- and Soviet-weighted purchasing power
parity ratios to an estimate of Soviet GNP in rubles. As a
result, geometric mean dollars are neither dollars nor rubles,
but a mix of the two. They approximate an estimate falling
midway between a comparison of the Soviet Union and the
United States in dollars and one in rubles. The purchasing
power parity ratios used in this estimate are based on
a study in 1976 dollar prices. The US GNP implicit price
deflator rebased to 1983 was used to convert Soviet GNP in
1976 dollars to 1983 dollars.
GNP estimates for Hungary, Poland, and Romania are
based on benchmark figures for 1975 in 1975 dollars in
Kravis, Heston, and Summers, World Product and Income:
International Comparisons of Real Gross Product, Balti-
more: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1982. GNP indices
in constant domestic currencies derived from official data
were combined with the 1975 benchmarks to yield time
series in 1975 dollars. The US GNP deflator was then
applied to the series to convert 1975 dollars into 1983
dollars. For Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and East Germany,
1970 benchmarks were shifted to 1975 in proportion to the
geometric mean of the benchmark shifts for Hungary,
Poland, and Romaina. The 1970 benchmarks were taken
from UN Economic Bulletin for Europe, Vol. 31, No. 2,
1980.
d For Yugoslovia, the 1970 benchmark from UN Economic
Bulletin for Europe, Vol. 31, No. 2, 1980, was shifted to
1975 in proportion to the geometric mean of the benchmark
shifts for Hungary, Poland, and Romania. Official Yugoslav
growth rates for gross social product were then applied to
this 1975 benchmark.
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Percent
Real Gross National Product Growth
Average Annual Rate of Growth
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1976-78
OECD
5.2
4.6
3.1
4.3
3.1
1.2
2.0
-0.5
2.4
United States
4.7
3.2
2.6
5.3
2.8
-0.3
2.6
-1.9
3.4
Australia
4.9
5.7
3.8
2.3
4.3
1.6
4.1
-0.8
-1.2
Canada
5.7
4.8
5.0
4.1
3.4
1.0
4.0
-4.2
' 3.0
Japan
10.0
11.2
4.6
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.0
3.2
3.0
Spain
8.5
6.2
5.5
2.7
0.2
1.5
0.2
1.2
2.0
Sweden
5.2
4.3
2.6
0.4
3.8
1.7
-0.5
0.4
1.7
Switzerland
5.2
4.2
0.8
0.4
2.5
4.6
1.5
-1.2
0.1
European Community
4.7
4.5
2.7
3.6
3.5
1.1
-0.3
0.5
0.8
Belgium
5.0
4.8
3.2
3.1
2.5
3.2
-1.1
1.1
NEGL
France
5.8
5.4
4.0
4.0
3.3
1.1
0.3
1.6
0.5
Italy
5.2
6.2
2.4
3.5
4.9
3.9
0.1
-0.3
-1.5
Netherlands
4.8
5.5
3.2
3.4
2.4
0.9
-0.8
-1.6
1.3
United Kingdom
3.2
2.5
2.0
2.8
2.0
-2.6
-1.3
2.3
2.5
West Germany
5.0
4.2
2.1
3.9
4.2
1.8
-0.1
-1.0
1.3
Less developed countries
6.3
6.7
7.0
5.8
5.2
4.9
1.4
0.9
0.5
OPEC
6.9
7.7
9.1
6.3
4.0
1.8
-1.2
0.5
-1.1
Communist countries
USSR and Eastern Europe
USSR a
5.1
5.3
3.7
3.8
0.2
1.7
2.1
2.6
3.0
Eastern Europe
3.9
3.8
4.9
2.9
.1.0
-0.3
-1.0
-0.8
1.9
Bulgaria
6.4
5.1
4.7
1.4
3.8
-3.0
3.0
3.1
NEGL
Czechoslovakia
2.4
3.4
3.4
2.5
0.9
2.1
-0.5
1.4
1.7
East Germany
2.9
3.1
3.5
2.2
2.8
2.2
2.0
NEGL
2.0
Hungary
3.9
3.0
3.3
3.0
0.3
1.0
-0.1
1.5
,-0.5
Poland
4.5
4.0
6.5
2.6
-1.8
-2.4
-5.3
-0.6
3.8
Romania
5.4
4.9
6.7
6.0
3.7
-1.6
0.5
2.3
1.1
Other
China
NA
8.3
5.6
10.0
7.0
5.2
3.0
7.4
9.0
North Korea
9.7
5.8
10.4
-1.6
3.8
3.7
2.5
NEGL
NEGL
Yugoslavia
6.9
6.3
6.1
6.3
7.0
2.3
1.4
0.7
-1.2
a At factor cost.
9-Z1-0017600LOOn16?9001AIL8dC11-V10 L/LO/L LO eSeeiei -104 panaiddv Ado Pez!4!ueS
Real Gross National Product Per Capita Growth
Percent
CD
co
n
?=1:.
N
a)
a
Average Annual Rate of Growth
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
0
0
-0
,.<
>
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1976-78
OECD
-0
-0
United States
3.2 '
2.1
1.5
4.3
1.7
-1.5
1.6
-2.8
2.4
E3
Australia
2.8
3.5
2.1
1.1
3.0
0.3
2.5
-2.3
-2.5
al
Canada
3.7
3.1
3.6
2.8
2.4
-0.2
2.8
-5.2
2.0
a
Japan
8.9
10.0
3.2
4.2
4.3
4.1
3.3
2.5
2.3
172:
Sweden
4.5
3.4
2.2
0.1
3.6
1.5
-0.7
0.3
1.7
7:1
Switzerland
3.1
3.1
0.4
0.8
2.3
4.1
0.8
-1.5
-0.2
el
FI)-
European Community
3.8
3.8
2.2
3.4
3.2
0.7
-0.5
0.3
0.6
co
w
Belgium
4.3
4.4
2.9
2.9
2.5
3.1
-1.2
1.1
-0.1
(D
France
6.6
4.5
3.2
3.6
2.9
0.6
-0.2
1.1
0.1
n)
0
Italy
4.5
5.6
1.7
4.7
-0.2
3.8
NEGL
-0.5
-1.9
_.1
Netherlands
3.4
3.3
3.2
2.7
1.7 '
NEGL
-1.5
-2.0
0.8
a3
--.1
United Kingdom
2.5
2.0
1.9
2.9
1.9
-2.7
-1.3
2.4
2.5
R3
West Germany
3.8
3.4
1.7
4.2
4.1
1.5
-0.2
-1.0
1.3
--.1
..
Communist countries
0
USSR and Eastern Europe
F.
USSR
3.5
4.2
2.7
2.8
-0.7
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.1
7:1
Eastern Europe
3.2
3.2
4.2
2.3
0.5
- 0.9
-1.5
0.3
1.5
CI
-0
Bulgaria
5.6
4.4
4.1
1.0
3.7
-3.4
2.6
2.8
-0.2
CO
--.1
Czechoslovakia
1.7
3.2
2.7
1.8
1.0
1.6
-0.6
1.1
1.4
East Germany
3.0
3.1
3.7
2.4
.' 2.9
2.2
2.1
0.2
2.2
0
0
Hungary
3.6
2.7
2.9
2.5
NEGL
0.9
-0.1
1.6
-0.4
01
0.)
Poland
3.2
3.3
5.5
1.7
-2.4
-3.3
-6.2
-1.5
2.8
CO
7:1
Romania
4.7
3.6
5.7
5.0
2.8
-2.3
-0.2
1.7
0.7
0
0
Other
0
--.1
China
NA
5.5
3.3
8.6
5.8
4.0
1.6
5.8
7.3
0
0
North Korea
6.6
2.6
7.1
-4.6
0.5
0.3
-0.3
-3.5
-3.5
CO
Yugoslavia
5.6
5.4
5.1
5.3
6.1
1.7
0.7
NEGL
-1.9
0
0
_.1
. N.)
a)
1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
1970=100
Agricultural Production Index
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Developed countries
92
100
113
122
121
127
128
118
United States
98
100
113
132
123
140
139
118
Canada
107
100
116
120
129
141
148
148
European Community
France
95
100
108
121
124
124
128
126
Italy
89
100
108
116
122
120
118
121
United Kingdom
92
100
105
117
124
122
126
127
West Germany
85
100
102
110
112
112
120
117
Oceania
85
100
121
139
128
139
128
144
Less developed countries
85
100
115
129
131
138
140
143
Africa
88
100
108
115
119
120
124
124
Far East
81
100
116
127
131
139
138
147
Latin America
4
88
100
114
131
133
141
142
143
Middle East
85
100
122
134
136
138
142
144
Communist countries
USSR and Eastern Europe
USSR ?
83
100
98
107
104
104
1 1 1
115
Eastern Europe a
91
100
119
129
127
123
123
119
Bulgaria
91
100
110
121
117
123
129
120
Czechoslovakia
83
100
114
122
125
124
122
126
East Germany
94
100
118
4 24
126
128
122
126
Hungary
91
100
125
137
145,
141
148
144
Poland
92
100
118
124
114
105
100
104
Romania
92
100
133
161
156
149
157
154
Other
China b
82
100
121
150
154
163
181
198
North Korea c
90
100
154
180
180
176
190
186 ,
Yugoslavia
87
100
117
132
134
136
146
144
a Estimates based on the value of crop production plus the
value of livestock products, with allowance for changes in
livestock numbers, but minus feed (including grain imported
for feed), seed, and waste.
b Index of gross value of agricultural output.
c Based on official grain claims.
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
Million US $
International Reserves a
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
OECD
United States
19,359
15,450
14,487
15,882
19,984
27,395
29,683
33,003
32,279
Australia
743
1,317
1,693
3,257
1,790
2,044
1,994
6,677
9,160
Austria
714
1,305
1,751
4,439
5,048
6,223
6,145
6,116
5,289
Canada
1,998
3,037
4,679
5,325
3,878
3,978
4,326
3,781
4,205
Japan
1,949
2,152
4,840
12,815
20,639
25,717
29,196
24,270
25,489
Norway
308
476
811
2,237
4,269
6,100
6,302
6,919
6,672
Spain
541
1,422
1,817
6,090
13,898
12,516
11,400
8,218
7,937
Switzerland
2,324
3,444
5,132
10,428 '
20,275
19,373
17,372
18,676
18,086
European Community
Belgium
1,507
2,334
2,847
5,797
7,020
9,349
6,345
5,247
5,967
France
2,272
6,343
4,960
12,593
21,357
30,994
25,597
19,691
22,851
Italy
3,251
4,800
5,352
4,774
21,274
26,117
22,850
16,665
22,548
Netherlands
1,861
2,413
3,241
7,109
9,618
13,607
11,130
11,829
11,781
United Kingdom
3,719
3,004
2,827
5,459 ?
20,585
21,492
16,013
13,131
12,036
West Germany
7,033
7,430
13,610
31,034
56,942
52,840
47,597
48,436
46,162
Latin America
Brazil
345
484
1,187
4,034
9,045
5,853
6,693
3,934
4,375
Venezuela
609
819
1,021
8,860
7,849
7,116
8,631
7,021
8,036
Middle East
Knwait
72
124
203
1,655
2,988
4,042
4,170
6,011
5,285
Saudi Arabia
185
726
662
23,320
19,483
23,641
32,422
29,727
27,455
Africa
Libya
82
246
1,590
2,195
6,458
13,229
9,149
7,198
5,350
Nigeria
343
239
222
5,610
5,580
10,266
3,924
1,639
1,016
Communist countries
China
NA
NA
NA
NA
2,744
3,117
5,565
11,830
. 15,318
USSR
2,800
1,500
2,800
5,625
11,150
11,150
10,900
12,625
12,400
Yugoslavia
13
103
140
871
1,336
1,467
1,673
847
1,045
Including gold and foreign exchange. Data for the non-
Communist countries also include special drawing rights and
the reserve position in the International Monetary Fund.
Data before 1975 are expressed in terms of US dollars at the
official par values and, in 1975-83, reflect the realignments
of the exchange rates and the revaluations of the dollar price
of gold. Gold is valued at 35 SDR per ounce.
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STAT
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R
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Background
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Real Gross National Product Trends
GNP Developed Non-Communist Countries
Average annual rate
of growth (percent)
1961-70
1971-79
1980
1981
1982
1983
-2 0 2 4 6
Per Capita GNP Developed Non-Communist Countries
Average annual rate
of growth (percent)
1961-70
1971-79
1980
1981
1982
1983
-2 0 2
4
6
Less Developed Non-Communist Countries Communist Countries
-2
0
2
4 6
-2 0 2 4 6
Less Developed Non-Communist Countries Communist Countries
-2 0 2 4 6
-2 0 2 4 6
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Developed Countries: Aggregate Inflation-Rate Trends
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aa-A
00
r?I
00
00
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and Canada.
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Measures of Energy Efficiency
Energy-to-GNP ratio
Oil-to-GNP ratio'
Index 1973=100
Index 1973=100
OECD
110
United States
Japan
60
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
50
1975 1980
lit 111111
50 1975 1980 50
United Kingdom
110
100
90
80
70
60
1 1 1 1 mill
50 1975 1980
Italy
110
100
90
80
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1975 1980
Canada
110
90
80
70 70
60
60
lit1 It i Ill
50 1975 1980 50
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
? Care should be taken in comparing Soviet oil-to-GNP ratio directly with
the ratio of Western countries. The Soviet series is based on apparent
oil consumption because the Soviets do not publish data on oil consumption.
The apparent consumption series does not take into consideration possible
changes in year-to-year oil stock levels and is based on reported oil production
and estimates or oil exports and imports.
1975 1980
West Germany
110
France
110
60
I I itt III I
50 1975 1980 50
USSR
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1975 1980
Eastern Europe
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
III
1111 t I
60
1 1 1 1
1 1
1 1 1
It
50
1975
1980
50
1975
1980
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Sanitized CoPv Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
Economic Indicators for Selected Industrial Countries a
Percent
(I)
0_
0
o
-0
?<
>
-0
-0
0
<
0
0_
Ei
71
0 .
(T)
DJ
cn
(Dn.)
0
_1
_1
0)
--.1
R3 .
--.1
..
0
)17.
71
CI
-0
CO
--.1
0
0
Cn
0.)
CO
71
0
0
0
--.1
0
0
(0
-P
0
0
_1
1-)
0)
Average Annual Rate of Growth
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1961-70
1971-75
1976-78
Industrial production
United States
5.0
1.8
7.4
4.4
-3.6
2.6
-8.1
6.4
Canada
6.2
4.0
4.0
6.2
-1.5
0.9
-10.7
5.9
Japan
13.6
1.5
7.1
7.1
4.6
1.0
0.4
3.5
France
5.8
3.0
3.7
5.2
-1.2
-2.6
-1.5
1.2
Italy
7.0
1.6
5.0
6.6
5.6
-2.4
-2.2
-4.8
United Kingdom
2.8
0.6
3.8
3.8
-6.6
-3.9
2.0
2.9
West Germany
5.8
0.9
4.0
4.8
0.3
-2.3
-3.2
0.4
Consumer prices
United States
2.7
6.7
6.6
11.3
13.6
10.3
6.2
3.2
Canada
2.7
7.3
8.1
9.1
10.2
12.5
10.8
5.8
Japan
5.7
11.5
7.0
3.6
8.0
4.9
2.6
1.8
France
4.1
8.8
9.3
10.8
13.5
13.3
12.0
9.5
Italy
3.9
11.3
15.3
14.8
21.2
19.3
16.4
14.9
United Kingdom
4.1
13.0
13.5
13.4
18.0
11.9
8.6
4.6
West Germany
2.6
6.1
3.6
4.1
5.5
6.0
5.3
3.0
Export prices (unit values, US dollar basis)
United States
2.0
12.0
4.8
13.8
13.6
9.2
1.5
1.0
Canada
1.4
12.2
1.9
17.7
17.4
3.9
-2.0
-1.2
Japan
-0.4
12.5
9.2
4.9
7.5
5.5
-6.4
-2.4
France
1.3
15.2
6.2
2 16.4
11.6
-12.0
-5.5
-5.0
Italy
0.5
14.3
5.9
20.3
17.6
-7.8
-3.2
-5.8
United Kingdom
NA
12.7
10.4
22.4
? 25.2
-5.1
-7.3
-5.9
West Germany
2.6
16.0
8.8
12.9
7.9
-14.9
-2.8
-3.2
Import prices (unit values, US dollar basis)
United States
1.5
16.7
6.5
19.3
25.4
5.3
-2.0
-3.7
Canada
1.4
10.6
4.4
11.4
16.7
8.7
-1.1
-3.4
Japan
0.6
20.4
2.4
25.0
34.2
3.6
-7.3
-5.1
France
0.6
16.0
5.8
17.0
19.2
-7.8
-7.2
-7.0
Italy
1.1
19.6
5.6
21.1
26.4
1.1
-7.3
-7.6
United Kingdom
NA
17.0
7.7
24.9
13.9
-6.0
-6.1
-5.2
West Germany
1.5
16.1
8.3
20.3
15.2
-8.6
-4.7
-5.2
(continued)
9-Z1-0017600LOOn16?9001AIL8dC11-V10 L/LO/L LO eSeeiei -104 panaiddv Ado Pez!4!ueS
(D
0_
0
0
-0
,<
>
-0
-0
a
<
(D
0_
6
X
(D
(T)
CD
cn
(D
IV
0
__.?
__.?
25
-.I
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-.I
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0
Fs
X
0
TI
OD
-.I
0
0
(.31
OD
CD
X
0
0
0
0
0
CD
-P
0
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1-)
0)
Economic Indicators for Selected Industrial Countries a
(continued)
Percent
Average Annual Rate of Growth
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1961-70
1971-75
1976-78
Productivity in manufacturing (output per hour)
United States
2.8
3.4
2.6
0.7
0.2
3.5
1.1
6.2
Canada
4.3
3.5
3.7
2.8
-2.1
2.5
-2.5
6.9
Japan
10.8
6.8
8.1
8.8
9.5
5.5
8.2
5.7
France
6.7
5.0
6.2
4.4
1.5
2.7
5.6
6.1
Italy
7.1
4.6
4.2
7.3
5.8
3.5
2.6
0.6
United Kingdom
3.7
4.0
2.3
1.1
-1.1
6.5
3.1
6.1
West Germany
5.8
5.1
4.4
4.8
1.3
2.4
1.7
4.6
Unit labor costs in manufacturing (in US dollars)
United States
1.8
4.7
5.5
8.9
11.5
6.1
7.2
-0.7
Canada
0.4
7.8
3.0
5.0
12.9
9.9
11.7
0.6
Japan
3.2
17.0
11.8
-6.6
-5.2
4.4
-14.1
2.5
France
1.2
16.3
5.6
15.5
13.4
-11.9
-8.5
-7.4
Italy
4.5
15.6
3.5
12.0
9.2
-10.0
-2.8
3.2
United Kingdom
2.1
13.1
6.8
27.3
34.7
-4.4
-8.5
-11.6
West Germany
5.1
15.6
10.9
12.0
8.3
-15.3
-3.7
-5.8
Export Volume
United States
5.9
7.4
5.1
11.3
6.8
-3.0
-10.2
-6.5
Canada
9.8
2.8
10.3
1.8
-1.3
2.5
0.4
9.6
Japan
17.5
9.9
10.4
0.2
17.1
10.1
-2.4
8.6
France
8.5
7.6
7.2
10.1
2.1
2.9
-2.9
3.7
Italy
12.8
6.2
10.5
7.1
-7.9
6.6
-0.4
5.2
United Kingdom
4.8
4.5
6.7
5,.0
0.9
-0.7
2.2
0.8
West Germany
9.5
4.6
6.9
7.1
4.1
5.3
2.2
0.4
Import Volume
United States
8.7
2.5
13.7
0.5
-6.6
0.9
-5.0
10.3
Canada
7.9
9.2
3.8
10.8
-5.4
3.0
-16.1
15.5
Japan
14.7
3.9 '
8.5
11.3
-5.0
-2.6
-0.7
1.4
France
10.9
6.2
8.6
11.6
6.3
-3.4
3.6
-1.8
Italy
11.0
0.7
7.5
13.5
1.9
-8.8
1.3
1.5
United Kingdom
4.4
3.9
4.0
10.6
-5.4
-2.7
3.5
6.8
West Germany
10.3
3.5
8.5
9.0
2.2
-3.7
0.7
5.2
a Growth rates were derived from unrounded data.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27 CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
1970=100
Selected Non-OPEC LDCs: Indexes of Export
Prices, Import Prices, and Terms of Trade a
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
Non-OPEC LDCs
Export
191
185
194
226
233
273
314
298
279
Import
206
217
217
230
252
295
358
371
357
Terms of Trade
93
85
89
98
92
93
88
80
78
Brazil
Export
189
189
217
266
246
269
285
268
252
Import
210
217
224
232
247
297
380
422
408
Terms of Trade
90
87
97
115
100
91
75
64
62
Colombia
Export
172
175
257
376
315
311
347
311
308
Import
158
173
180
192
215
237
260
276
282
Terms of Trade
109
101
143
196
147
131
133
113
109
El Salvador
Export
161
164
241
317
266
302
312
290
275
Import
179
197
193
193
215
240
305
339
362
Terms of Trade
90
83
125
164
124
126
102
86
76
Ethiopia
Export
138
123
219
222
220
229
221
NA
NA
Import
147
155
164
177
197
214
240
263
NA
Terms of Trade
94
79
134
125
112
107
92
NA
NA
India
Export
160
172
170
199
211
230
NA
NA
NA
Import
194
226
219
201
224
292
NA
NA
NA
Terms of Trade
82
76
78
99
94.
79
NA
NA
NA
Jordan
Export
256
291
253
245
271
280
335
346
355
Import
189
259
223
251
262
284
355
389
371
Terms of Trade
135
112
113
98
103
99
94
89
96
Kenya
Export
156
175
206
297
270
297
360
326
296
Import
179
221
225
245
278
333
440
459
439
Terms of Trade
87
79
92
121
97
89
82
71
67
Malaysia
Export
220
183
214
246
273
351
414
381
350
Import
234
249
239
254
276
314
378
409
401
Terms of Trade
94
73
90
97
99
112
110
93
87
(continued)
r-.
9-Z1-0017600LOOM6C9001AIL8dCW-V10 L/L0/L L0 8S8l8j Jo; penoJddv Ado PezIllueS
1970=100
n Selected Non-OPEC LDCs: Indexes of Export
1) Prices, Import Prices, and Terms of Trade a
3
z. (continued)
71
D 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
a
7) Mauritius
0
O Export 364 454 336 332 350 385 436 405 369
< Import 239 257 257 283 324 382 458 460 428
>
O Terms of Trade 152 177 131 117 108 101 95 88 86
O Morocco
8 Export 265 308 222 203 234 NA NA NA NA
<
CD Import 213 . 232 211 162 NA NA NA NA NA
ah Pakistan
Terms of Trade 124 133 105 125 NA NA NA NA NA
71 Export 196 173 189 227 258 299 319 331 295
CD
(T) Import 194 220 211 218 231 259 323 371 355
Da Terms of Trade 101 79 90 104 112 115 99 89 83
cn
CD Philippines
IV Export 212 168 148 150 168 207 216 211 176
0 Import 247 258 255 283 289 339 420 467 399
_1
_1 Terms of Trade 86 65 58 53 58 61 51 45 44
O South Korea
--.1
R3 Export 160 148 166 181 200 241 252 260 251
--.1 Import 210 217 212 217 230 295 355 374 346
..
Terms of Trade 76 68 78 83 87 82 71 70 73
0
)17. Sri Lanka
Export 162 143 140 209 223 244 265 233 199
CI Import 235 261 196 222 240 367 493 550 558
-0 Terms of Trade 69 55 71 94 93 66 54 42 36
CO
Syria
Export 338 291 358 381 404 531 690 766 669
0
0 Import 245 273 327 297 317 397 515 669 628
01 Terms of Trade 138 107 109 128 127 134 134 114 107
O.)
(0 Thailand
71 Export 240 212 206 210 229 272 321 301 257
0
0 Import 215 239 251 270 294 338 418 449 450
0
--.1 Terms of Trade 112 89 82 78 78 80 77 67 57
0 Tunisia
0
(.0 Export 359 395 328 340 375 529 770 724 NA
-I,
0 Import 178 215 198 202 213 236 267 258 234
0 Terms of Trade 202 184 166 168 176 224 288 281 NA
_1
Data are from the International Financial Statistics. US from national data, with the original 1975 comparison base
dollar indexes for total exports and total imports converted shifted to 1970.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27
0
-0
co
0
0
cy,
0.)
0
0
0
? 0
0
0
0
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27 CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
Million US $
(I)
Current Account Balance
(D
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 .
OECD
United States
2,830
5,410
2,320
18,320
-480
480
4,640
-11,200
-40,840
Canada
-1,616,
-1,173
1,078
-4,696
-4,119
-915
-4,805
2,398
1,274
Japan
140
920
2,000
-690
-8,750
-10,750
4,770
6,850
21,030
European Community
1,750
-129
2,872
3,530
-9,070
-36,600
-11,600
-9,440
NA
Belgium b
110
-478
717
181
-3,077
-4,945
-4,174
-2,804
NA
Denmark
-59
-214
-544
-490
-2,965
-2,466
-1,875
-2,259
-1,313
France
719 c
581 c
55
2,745
5,139
-4,208
-4,809
-12,084
NA
Greece
-55
-272
-402
-877
-1,886
-2,209
-2,408
-1,892
-2,432
Ireland
-11
-131
-198
-56
-1,679
-2,745
-2,000
-1,300
-400
Italy
316
2,251
902
-580
5,414
-9,801
-8,604
-5,767
NA
Netherlands
347
49
-483
1,990
-2,068
-2,974
2,887
3,697
3,551
United Kingdom
-723
-215
1,975
-3,463
-1,669
8,741
15,151
9,529
3,047
West Germany
1,110
-1,700
850
4,080
-6,280
-15,960
-5,720
3,340
3,910
Non-OPEC less developed countries
Argentina
-204
222
-163
-1,287
-513
-4,774
-4,712
-2,510
-2,570
Brazil
-517
284
-837
-7,008
-10,478
-12,806
-11,751
-16,312
-6,900
China (Taiwan)
-125
-80
5
-690
-241
-825
4,970
2,193
NA
India
-802
-1,422
-530
-342
-690
-4,100
-3,840
-3,500
NA
Malaysia
-2
39
8
-494
988
-192
-2,286
-3,445
2,850
Mexico
-324
-403
-1,068 .
-4,042
-5,459
-8,162
-13,899
-2,943
-4,000
Philippines
-4
122
-48
-923
''-.1,562
-2,046
-2,327
-3,368
-3,200
South Korea
13
8
-623
-1,889
-4,151
-5,321
-4,646
-2,650
-1,600
Thailand
-3
-15
-250
-606
-2,086
-2,070
-2,569
-1,006
-1,900
OPEC
Iran
-92
-96
-507
4,707
12,000
400
-1,100
6,100
-700
Saudi Arabia
190
89
152
15,300
13,900
49,000
58,000
13,800
-13,700
Venezuela
394
35
-104
2,171
350
4,728
4,000
-4,246
1,300
a Preliminary. 0
b Including Luxembourg. 0
_1
c Excluding overseas departments and territories. N)
(S)
Gross Domestic Product in Purchasing Power
and Exchange Rate Equivalents, 1983
Purchasing
Purchasing
Average
Average
Average
February
May 1972
April 1971.
Power
Power
1983
1982
1973
1973
Exchange
Exchange
Equivalents.
Equivalents b
Par Rate/
Exchange
Exchange
Exchange
Rate
Rate
(Kravis)
(Gilbert)
Market Rate
Rate
Rate
Rate
OECD
Gross Domestic Product, 1983 (Billion US $)
Belgium
108.8
108.0
81.5
91.2
106.9
103.3
93.0
83.4
Denmark
60.8
51.7
56.0
61.5
84.7
81.6
73.4
68.3
France
640.6
600.6
514.9
597.1
881.3
853.1
767.1
706.5
Italy
444.1
375.1
355.1
398.8
925.1
951.9
927.5
862.9
Japan
1,339.4
1,065.3
1,157.0
1,103.4
1,009.6
1,017.8
892.2
763.4
Netherlands
149.1
121.3
133.3
142.5
136.1
130.3
117.3
105.1
United Kingdom
498.1
457.7
449.2
518.4
726.1
737.3
771.6
710.7
West Germany
748.2
597.6
657.7
692.0
628.5
579.1
521.1
458.8
OECD
Gross Domestic Product Per Capita, 1983 (United States 100)
Belgium
74
85
59
65
77
74
67
60
Denmark
79
79
78
85
117
113
102
95
France
78
86
67
77
114
111
99
92
Italy
52
51
44
, 50
115
119
116
108
Japan
75
70
69
66
.60
60
53
45
Netherlands
69
66
66
70
67
64
58
52
United Kingdom
59
64
57
66
92
93
98
90
West Germany
81
76
76
80
72
67
60
53
For the individual OECD countries, the ratios for convert-
ing GNP in national currencies at 1983 prices into 1983 US
dollars on the basis of purchasing power equivalents are
derived from the 1975 ratios in World Product and Income:
International Comparisons of Real GDP, published for the
World Bank by the Johns Hopkins University Press, Balti-
more and London, 1981, using the geometric mean of
foreign and US weighted ratios. These 1975 GDP parities
were moved to 1983 by applying the following factor: the
derived price index for each OECD country for 1976-83
divided by a derived price index for the United States for
1976-83. These price indexes were derived for each
country by dividing the growth of GDP in current prices by
the growth of GDP in constant prices. The ratios thus
obtained were applied to the GDP values, given in the
national currencies in 1983 prices.
b For the individual European OECD countries, the ratios
for converting GDP in national currencies at 1983 prices
into 1983 US dollars on the basis of US purchasing power
equivalents are derived from the 1950 ratios in Milton
Gilbert and Associates, Comparative National Products and
Price Levels, OEEC, Paris, 1958, using the geometric mean
of European and US weighted ratios. These 1950 ratios were
moved to 1983 by applying the following factor: the derived
price index for each European country for 1951-83 divided
by a derived price index for the United States for 1951-83.
The ratios thus obtained were applied to the GDP values,
given in the national currencies in 1983 prices.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
sap4unop pazrponput -3
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STAT
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R
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
Background
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
Growth Rates of GDP for Developing and Industrial Countries, 1960-85
Developing countries
Industrial countries
a Forecast.
Sources: OECD, 1984 (for industrial countries);
World Bank, 1984 and
Project Link, University of Pennsylvania,
t985 (for developing countries).
Percent
10
-2
1960 65 70 75 80
85"
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
World Crude Steel Production
Percent
United States
European Community
Japan
USSR/Eastern Europe
Other Communist
Other
1960
Total: 346 Million Metric Tons
1970
Total: 594 Million Metric Tons
1975 1983
Total: 651 Million Metric Tons
Total: 640 Million Metric Tons
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
World Passenger Automobile Production
d
1
United States
European Community
Japan
USSR/Eastern Europea
Other
'Data include production in Yugoslavia.
1960 1970
Total: 12.8 Million Units Total: 22.5 Million Units
1975 1983
Total: 25.2 Million Units Total: 30.0 Million Units
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
C
Million US $
Big Seven: Trade Balance, by Commodity
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
Big Seven
5,626
7,719
-56,364
-80,053
-45,448
-35,695
Foodstuffs
-11,282
-15,622
-25,178
-16,700
-8,263
-14,152
Raw materials
-14,508
-21,418
-41,212
-42,811
-36,020
-32,330
Fuels
-11,744
-83,279
-161,932
-231,664
-228,186
-188,358
Manufactures
43,294
128,433
172,821
212,431
227,059
-199,043
Other
-136
-393
-869
-1,314
-42
99
United States
3,264
10,711
-40,667
-33,364
-40,706
-42,104
Foodstuffs
473
10,587
13,304
18,820
21,352
15,809
Raw materials
-573
-578
-943
2,560
-2,122
283
Fuels
-1,386
-21,923
-58,048
-74,070
-73,966
-54,647
Manufactures
4,774
22,435
5,499
20,330
15,551
-2,430
Other
-24
191
-481
-1,004
-1,521
-1,121
Canada
2,836
-1,654
2,495
5,398
3,384
12,718
Foodstuffs
823
1,582
2,450
3,472
4,221
4,801
Raw materials
4,123
5,872
10,523
11,884
10,916
9,557
Fuels
229
1,243
2,396
1,867
1,498
4,128
Manufactures
-2,255
-10,229
-12,382
-11,151
-12,833
-5,081
Other
-83
-121
-492
-675
-417
-689
Japan
437
-2,112
-7,144
-10,349
11,080
8,256
Foodstuffs
-2,521
-9,536
-15,288
-15,145
-16,410
-15,084
Raw materials
-6,755
-10,158
-21,988
-23,902
-20,342
-19,597
Fuels
-3,858
-25,422
-44,930
-69,488
-72,009
-65,207
Manufactures
13,584
42,788
75,869
98,502
120,333
108,470
Other
-13
216
-808
-319
-494
-317
(continued)
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Cf)
(D
0_
0
-0
-0
8
<
(D
0_
ah
CD
tr/
CD
n.)
R3
0
-0
CO
--.1
0
0
CTi
O.)
CO
0
0
0
Big Seven: Trade Balance, by Commodity
- -
(continued)
Million US $
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
West Germany
4,375
15,814
13,755
5,725
12,593
21,407
Foodstuffs
-4,335
-7,850
-12,266
-12,603
-10,116
-9,762
Raw materials
-3,917
-5,452
-9,577
-11,286
-8,371
-7,872
Fuels
-1,616
-10,286
-25,272
-34,761
-32,829
-29,954
Manufactures
14,624
39,946
61,498
64,162
62,098
67,563
Other
-382*,
-545
-630
211
1,810
1,431
France
-1,184
-2,002
-8,752
-23,463
-19,032
-23,096
Foodstuffs
5
1,148
1,773
3,981
4,810
3,008
Raw materials
-1,476
-2,422
-4,041
-4,884
-3,855
-3,441
Fuels
-1,915
.-10,850
-19,458
-31,241
-29,947
-27,166
Manufactures
2,044
9,842
13,196
9,234
10,051
4,376
Other
158
280
-223
-554
-93
127
United Kingdom
-2,373
-9,935
-12,128
-3,522
983
-2,490
Foodstuffs
-4,007
-7,124
-8,692
-7,790
-6,765
-6,710
Raw materials
-3,151
-4,087
-5,337
-6,019
-4,517
-3,855
Fuels
-1,773
-7,815
-3,029
-1,030
5,084
6,649
Manufactures
6,348
9,502
3,580
10,541
6,385
501
Other
211
-412
1,349
776
796
926
Italy
-1,729
-3,103
-3,921
-20,478
-13,750
-10,396
Foodstuffs
-1,719
-4,428
-6,459
-7,435
-5,355
-6,215
Raw materials
-2,760
-4,592
-9,848
-11,163
-7,730
-7,405
Fuels
-1,426
-8,227
-13,592
-22,942
-26,016
-22,159
Manufactures
4,177
14,147
25,561
20,811
25,473
25,642
Other
-3
-2
416
250
-123
-259
0
0
CO I
0
0
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27 CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
Percent CD
CU
D
,=.:.
Big Seven: Unemployment Rates a N
0
a
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 0
-0
,<
United States 5.5 4.5 4.9 8.5 5.8 7.1 7.5 9.6 9.4 >
-0
Canada 7.0 3.9 5.7 6.9 7.5 7.5 7.5 11.1 11.9 -0
France 1.8 1.6 2.6 4.3 5.9 6.2 7.6 8.4 8.5 0)
<
Italy b 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.8 3.8 4.2 4.6 . 5.0 0
0_
Japan 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7
ah
United Kingdom . 2.2 2.2 3.1 4.1 - 5.7 6.5 10.0 11.7 12.4
71
West Germany 1.1 0.5 0.6 4.1 3.8 4.0 5.6 7.7 9.2 (1)
CT
a Unemployment as a share of total civilian labor force. a)
b Data adjusted to US concepts. Cl)
0
c Excluding Northern Ireland.
N)
0
_1
_.. ,
6
--.1
Percent R3
-NI
. .
Big Seven: Personal Savings Rates a 0
Fs
7:1
1960 1970 1975 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 0
-0
CO
United States 5.6 8.0 8.6 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.6 5.8 4.8 -NI
Canada 3.3 5.3 10.9 ' 10.8 11.3 12.1 13.8 15.1 12.9 0
Japan 17.4 18.2 22.1 20.6 .18.7 19.2 19.7 17.7 NA 0
01
France 9.8 16.7 18.6 17.5 16.2 14.7 15.6 15.5 NA 00
CO
Italy NA 21.6 23.2 23.8 25.3 22.0 24.0 24.0 NA 7j
0
United Kingdom 7.2 9.3 12.7 12.1 12.9 14.8 12.5 10.8 8.4 0
0
West Germany 8.5 14.6 16.4 13.3 13.9 14.2 14.9 14.4 13.2 -NI
0
a Savings as a share of disposable personal income. 0
CD
-P
0
0
_1
N)
CS)
9-Z1-0017600LOOn16?9001AIL8dCW-V10 L/LO/L LO 3S3I3I -104 penalddV Ado Pez!4!ueS
? Billion US $ (/)
a)
D
,=.:.
NICs: Trade with the Big Seven N
(D
a
0
0
?<
>
-0
-0
(7)
<
(D
0_
1970
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983-0
NICs
Exports
0.3
18.4
24.4
29.4
37.6
48.2
57.8
64.8
67.4
71.5
Imports
9.3
28.0 ,
29.6
32.6
44.4
55.7
69.2
74.2
64.3
63.1
Balance
-9.0
-9.6
-5.2
-3.2
-6.8
-7.5
-11.4
-9.4
3.1
8.4
Brazil
Exports
0.2
4.2
4.5
5.8
6.4
7.9
9.4
10.2
10.5
10.7
Imports
1.7
6.6
6.1
5.6
6.9
7.7
9.4
8.2
7.1
6.7
Balance
-1.5
-2.4
-1.6
0.2
-0.5
0.2
NEGL
2.0
3.4
4.0
China (Taiwan)
Exports
NEGL
3.3
4.8
5.7
8.2
10.2
11.5
12.9
13.4
16.3
Imports
1.3
3.9
4.4
4.9
6.7
8.7
10.6
10.8
10.1
11.2
Balance
-1.3
-0.6
0.4
0.8
1.5
1.5
0.9
2.1
3.3
5.1
Hong Kong
Exports
0.1
3.1
4.5
4.9
6.3
7.9
9.3
9.8
9.6
9.4
Imports
1.5
2.9
3.8
4.7
6.4
7.9
9.9
10.5
9.9
10.5
Balance
-1.4
0.2
0.7
0.2
-0.1
NEGL
-0.6
-0.7
-0.3
-1.1
Mexico
Exports
. 0.1
3.3
3.9
5.1
6.5
9.2
13.9
16.4
18.3
19.7
Imports
2.3
6.8
6.5
6.3
8.9
12.5
19.1
23.2
15.5
11.4
Balance
-2.2
-3.5
-2.6
-1.2
-2.4
-3.3
-5.2
-6.8
2.8
8.3
Singapore
Exports
NEGL
1.3
1.7
2.0
2.5
' ',, 3.9
4.6
5.0
5.0
4.5
Imports
0.9
3.2
3.3
3.8
5.0
6.6
9.0
9.5
9.9
10.0
Balance
-0.9
-1.9
-1.6
-1.8
-2.5
-2.7
- 4.4
- 4.5
- 4.9
- 5.5
South Korea
Exports
NEGL
3.2
5.0
5.9
7.7
9.1
9.1
10.5
10.6
10.9
Imports
1.6
4.6
5.5
7.3
10.5
12.3
11.2
12.0
11.8
? 13.3
Balance
-1.6
-1.4
-0.5
-1.4
-2.8
-3.2
-2.1
-1.5
-1.2
-2.4
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STAT
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Background
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Developing Countries' Share of World Population and Production, 1800-1980
Developing countries ri Developed countries
Percent of Total World Production
Trillion US $
12
9
6
3
44
,z
19
17
z
21
0 1800 1900 1950 1980
Source: The World Bank.
Percent of Total World Population
Billion people
5
4
3
2
I
66
67
75
74
0
1800
1900
1950
1980
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9-Z1-0017600L00016?9001NL8dCll-V10
0
Urban Agglomerations With More Than
10 Million Inhabitants, 1950-2000
11111 Developing countries 111 Developed countries
1950 1975 2000
Million inhabitants
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
New York/northeast York/northeast
New York/northeast
New Jersey
12.2
New Jersey
19.8
London
10.4
Mexico
11.9
Los Angeles/
Long Beach
10.8
London
10.4
Tokyo/ Yokohama
17.7
Shanghai
11.6
Sao Paulo
10.7
Source: United Nations.
Mexico City
Tokyo/ Yokohama
Shanghai
Beijing
Greater Bombay
Jakarta
Los Angeles/
Long Beach
Madras
Karachi
Bogota
Tehran
Baghdad
31.0
Sao Paulo
25.8
24.2
New York/northeast
22.7
New Jersey
22.8
19.9
Rio de Janeiro
19.0
17.1
Calcutta
16.7
16.6
Seoul
14.2
Cairo/ Al Jizah /Imbabah
13.1
14.2
Manila
12.3
12.9
Greater Buenos Aires
12.1
11.8
New Delhi
11.7
11.7
Paris
11.3
11.3
Istanbul
11.2
11.1
Osaka/ Kobe
11.1
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Less Developed Countries: Aggregate Real GNP Growth Rates
Nonoil-Exporting
00
00
00
s.0
CD
0,
N-
0, 0,
oo
0,
oo
0,
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n c 0
Share of Agriculture in Total Output
Share of GDP
705132 5-85
40 percent and above
20-40 percent
10-20 percent
Less than 10 percent
Data not available
s.
.-
Source: The World Bank.
Low-income
Middle-income
High-income
oil exporters
Industrial market
1111111.11
14
1
3
i
100
0
Percent
50
Agriculture
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9-Z1-0017600LOOn16?9001AIL8dC11-V10 L/LO/L LO eSeeiei -104 panaiddv Ado Pez!4!ueS
Volume and Composition of Export Earnings of Developing Countries, 1965 and 1980
Percent
1. Agriculture
LI Fuels
Manufactures
11111 Nonfactor services
Metals and minerals.
1
I
a Excluding gold.
b Current prices.
Source: The World Bank.
42
10
16
16
16
1965
US $44 billion"
1980
US $498 billion"
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Economic Profile: Selected Less Developed Countries, 1983 Cf)
Africa
Asia
Latin America
Middle East and South Asia
Ivory
Coast
Kenya
Morocco Zaire
Zimba-
bwe
Malay- Philip- Thai-
sia pines land
Chile
Colom- Peru
bia
Bangla-
desh
Egypt
India
Paki-
stan
Syria
Aggregative data
Population
Million persons
at midyear
9.3
18.6
22.9
31.2
8.1
15.0
54.3
50.7
11.5
28.3
18.6
96.5
45.8
730.6
94.1
9.8
Percent increase
3.2
4.1
2.9
2.9'. .
2.9
2.3
2.4
2.0
1.5
2.1
2.6
3.1
2.7
2.1
2.9
3.4
Gross domestic product
Billion 1983 US $
10.7
8.1
21.6
5.7
5.4
30.4
' 43.9
46.5
26.6
36.1
23.2
15.1
36.0
179.0
35.6
14.6
Percent real growth
2.0
3.0
4.0
-1.0
-3.0
6.0
1.5
6.0
NEGL
1.0
-11.0
3.0
5.0
6.5
7.5
6.0
Per capita
(1983 US $)
1,150
440
940
180
670
2,030
810
920
2,310
1,280
1,250
160
790
250
380
1,490
Industry
Per capita
manufacturing (US $) a
242
55
151
15
131
330
185
129
523
240
231
9
82
38
42
185
Electricity production
(billion kilowatt-
hours)
1.7
1.8
5.4
4.4 b
4.2
11.0
19.0
18.4
12.6
25.6 c
9.3 c
3.7
.
18.5 b
131.3
19.3
6.2
Agriculture
Per capita
agriculture (US $) a
342
107
159
40
72
393
174
180
182
302
88
53
105
76
81
308
Grain production (mil-
lion metric tons)
0.8
2.6
3.5
1.0
1.2
2.0
11.5
22.4
1.6
3.3
1.5
22.8
8.1
153.7
19.0
2.7
Trade and international reserves
Exports, f.o.b.
(million US $)
2,299 .
1,047 .
2,006
569C
1,279 .
14,130
4,890
6,368
3,836
3,001
3,015
725
3,120c
8,512
3,077
2,026C
Imports, c.i.f.
(million US $)
2,180 .
1,745 .
3,592
480 .
1,643 .
13,207
7,959
10,232
2,754
4,963
2,510
2,162
9,078 .
13,323
5,329
4,015 .
International reserves
(million US $) d
5
379
132
296
97
3,869
797
1,698
2,102
2,056
2,075
526
890
5,894
2,041
231
Living standard indicators
Literacy rate (percent).
25
50
25
17
74
58
76
82
90
75
74
26
43
36
31
47
Life expectancy (years).
44
53
51
40
52
60
61
61
62
59
55
48
54
50
48
62
. value added, 1980.
b Data are for 1980.
. Data are for 1982.
d Including gold valued at SDR 35 per ounce.
. Latest year available.
Fs
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Economic Profile: Selected Newly Industrializing Countries, 1983
Argentina a
Brazil
China (Taiwan)
Hong Kong
Mexico
Singapore
South Korea
Aggregative data
Population
Million persons
at midyear
29.7
131.3
18.8
5.3
75.7
2.5
41.4
Percent increase
1.6
2.3
1.7
1.5
2.6
1.2
1.7
Gross domestic product
Billion 1983 US $
106.7
296.8
53.9
30.2
251.1
15.4
80.5
Percent real growth
2.0
-4.0
6.0
6.0
-5.0
7.9
9.1
Per capita
(1983 US $)
3,590
2,260
2,870
5,700
3,320
6,160
1,940
Industry
Per capita
manufacturing (US $) b
1,593
455
992
1,074
582
1,362
334
Electricity production
(billion kilowatt-
hours)
38.8
142.4 c
45.5
14.4
80.4
8.6
48.6
Agriculture
Per capita
agriculture (US $) b
380
223
165
42
197
61
220
Grain production (mil-
lion metric tons)
29.9
29.3
2.6
NEGL
25.3
NEGL
8.6
Trade and international reserves
Exports, f.o.b.
(million US $)
7,625 c
21,899
25,094
21,954
21,119
21,833
24,445
Imports, c.i.f.
(million US $)
5,337 c
16,801
19,077
24,013
8,207
28,158
26,192
International reserves
(million US $) d
1,333
4,375
11,860
NA
3,997
9,264
2,358
Living standard indicators
Literacy rate (percent) e
93
75
90
90
83
84
93
Life expectancy at birth (years).
68
60
72
71
65
68
66
a Argentina is included because its economy closely resem-
bles the NIC economies.
b Value added, 1980.
c Data are for 1982.
d Including gold valued at SDR 35 per ounce.
e Latest available data.
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. Percent Change
CD
CU
C/) D
cu Economic Indicators for Selected Non-OPEC
n N
,=.:. Less Developed Countries (D
N 0-
CD
a 0
1973 1975 1976 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 0
O -0
O ?<
0 Industrial production >
< ? -0
> China (Taiwan) 20.5 5.4 24.3 25.0 8.1 7.6 4.2 -0.8 12.4 -0
0
0 India 1.6 , 4.7 9.8 6.9 1.2 0.7 9.1 4.7 4.1 0
<
(7) Mexico 10.1 4.7 5.1 10.9 11.2 9.8 8.8 -2.0 -8.2 (D
< 0_
CD South Korea 33.5 18.9 29.7 22.9 11.7 -1.8 12.8 4.4 16.7
0_ h
h Consumer price inflation
71
Brazil 12.7 28.9 42.0 38.7 52.7 95.3 91.2 97.9 179.0 CD
71 China (Taiwan) 8.2 5.2 2.5 5.8 9.8 19.0 16.3 4.0 1.4 CT)
CD 0)
(T) India 17.8 5.6 -7.8 2.5 6.4 11.4 13.0 7.9 11.9 cn
CD CD
cn Mexico 12.0 15.2 15.8 17.5 18.2 26.3 28.0 58.9 101.9 IV
CD
IV South Korea 3.2 25.3 15.3 14.4 18.3 28.7 21.3 7.3 3.4 0
_1
0 Wholesale price inflation _1
_1
6
_1 Brazil 15.3 27.8 40.4 37.6 55.9 106.5 108.2 92.0 168.2 -NI
6 - R 3
-NI China (Taiwan) 22.9 -5.1 2.8 3.3 13.8 21.5 7.6 -0.7 1.4
-NI
R3 India 16.4 4.0 -2.0 -0.3 11.4 20.3 12.2 2.5 7.7 . ?
-NI
.. Mexico 16.0 10.4 22.4 15.7 18.3 24.4 24.5 56.1 107.3 0
0 South Korea 6.9 26.1 12.1 11.7 18.8 38.9 20.4 4.7 0.2 )17.
Fs Money supply 71
0
71 Brazil 41.8 33.6 40.3 42.2 73.6 70.0 74.7 69.7 92.0 10
CI CO
ID China (Taiwan) 49.3 26.9 23.0 37.0 7.7 22.7 13.8 15.6 18.1 -NI
CO
-NI India 16.5 8.1 15.5 20.4 20.8 12.3 15.7 7.7 16.5
0
0
Mexico 24.2 21.3 30.9, 33.0 33.1 33.1 32.8 61.9 42.1
0 Cn
0 South Korea 51.4 26.1 30.8 28.2 20.7 16.3 4.7 45.6 17.0 CO
01 CO
CO 71
CO 0
7:1 0
0 0
0 --.1
0 0
--.1 0
0 CO
0 -P
CO 0
-P 0
0 _1
0 1-)
_1
IV 0)
(3)
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Billion US $
Medium- and Long-Term Debt of Selected Less Developed Countries
1975
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Algeria
5.9
15.0
17.0
17.3
16.9
16.8
16.0
Argentina
4.9
9.8
14.0
16.9
26.1
28.8
29.5
Brazil
23.4
46.2
51.4
56.1
64.3
70.7
78.1
Chile
4.4
5.9
7.5
9.6
12.6
14.9
14.9
Ecuador
0.6
2.8
3.3
4.0
4.9
5.0
5.5
Egypt
5.1
10.4
12.2
13.8
15.2
16.6
17.9
India
12.7
15.8
16.5
18.2
18.9
20.7
21.5
Indonesia
8.7
14.5
15.1
16.6
17.5
20.2
24.7
Ivory Coast
0.9
3.1
3.8
4.6
4.8
. 5.2
5.4
Malaysia
1.8
3.1
3.5
4.4
6.7
10.2
13.6
Mexico
16.6
32.5
37.7
43.5
53.5
60.4
63.4
Morocco
1.8
' 5.6
6.7
7.5
8.4
9.6
10.2
Nigeria
1.4
2.7
4.2
5.6
6.7
10.0
11.9
Pakistan
5.4
7.8
8.3
9.2
9.2
9.9
9.9
Peru
4.4
7.2
7.9
8.1
8.2
9.3
10.9
Philippines
2.8
6.3
7.2
8.9
10.3
12.0
13.5
South Korea
6.0
12.7
15.5
17.6
21.0
23.4
26.8
Sudan
1.5
2.9
3.5
4.1
5.3
6.8
7.0
Taiwan
1.9
3.5
3.9
4.9
5.4
6.2
7.1
Thailand
1.4
2.8
4.1
5.8
7.3
8.5
9.9
Venezuela
2.3
9.4
12.3
14.2
15.9
19.6
21.3
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ASSESSING STRUCTURAL CHANGE
FROM THE STANDPOINT OF INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
Structural change offers the Intelligence Community a useful
framework to assess fundamental re-alignments in foreign countries'
internal economic and political systems as well as changes that these
can trigger in their political, economic and strategic relationships
internationally. It can help policymakers understand such complex
issues as competitive problems and industrial re-structuring in
Europe, North America, and East Asia; long-range changes in
East-West relations; and the underpinnings of political development
and instability in the Third World.
A central concern is that structural change almost inevitably has
differential effects on different countries (and on regions within
countries, as well as regions composed of several countries)_. Some
nations will therefore fare better than others as they undergo
structural change. The Intelligence Community has a responsibility to
provide information and analysis to support policymakers seeking to
ensure that the United States will be in the former category of
countries in the coming years -- as well as to anticipate and assess
the possible consequences of being in the latter.
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STAT
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epuDifiv uietsaM en 11
STAT
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Background
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Growth, Inflation, and Unemployment in the Big Seven,. 1965-85
GDP growth rate
Consumer prices
Unemployment
a Countries include Canada,
France, West Germany, Italy, Japan,
United Kingdom and United States.
Forecast.
Source: OECD, December 1984.
Percent
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
1965
70
75
80
856
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Government Receipts, Outlays, and Balances, as a Share of GNP
Percent
Receipts United States Japan
Outlays
40 40
30
'
20
10
50
40
30
20
10
50
40
10
Balances
Note change in scale
4
2
-2
-6
-8
1960 70 75 81
West Germany
France
40
40
30
30
20
20
10 10
50
40
30
20
United Kingdom
40
30
20
10
10 10
4 4
2
2
o
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-6 -6
-8 1960 70 75 81 -8 1960 70 75 81
10
4
10
4
-8
1960 70 75 81
-8
1960 70 75 81
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Economic Profile: Developed Countries, 1983
United --Canada -Japan European Community
States
Total
France
Italy
Nether-
lands
United
Kingdom
West
Germany
Aggregative data,
Population
Million persons at midyear
234:5
24.9
119.3
272.1
54.7
56.8
14.4
56.0
61.5
- Percent change
0.9
-1.2
0.7
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.7
NEGL
-0.2
Gross national-product
,
Billion 1983 US $ a
3,310.5
326.9
1,157.0
2,300
514.9
355.1
133.3
449.2
657.7
Percent real growth
3.4
3.0
. 3.0
0.8
0.5
-1.5
1.3
2.5
1.3
Per capita (1983 US $) '
14,120
13,130
9,700
8,450
9,410
6,250
9,260
8,020
10,690
Industrial production (percent growth)
6.4
5.9
3.5
NA
1.2
-4.8
2.3
2.9
0.4
Industry. ,
. Primary energy (million b/d oil equivalent)
30.8
4.9
1.2
11:4
1.5
0.5
1.5
5.0
2.4
' Electricity (billion kilowatt-hours)
2,459
405:
603
1,260
269
183
58
276
367
Crude steel (million metric tons)
75.6
12.7
.
97.2
112
17.6
24.0
4.5
15.0
35.7
Cement (million metric tons)
63.9
7..9
' 80.4
135
25.0
40.2
3.1
13.4
29.6
Trade and international reserves
-
Exports, f.o.b. (billion US $)
200.5 b
76.7
147.0
590.0 c
94.9
72.7
65.5
91.6
169.4
Imports, c.i.f. (billion US $)
269.9
65.1
126.4
615.9 c
105.4
80.4
62.6
100.2
152.9
Trade balance (billion US $)
-69.3
11.7
20.5
-25.9 c
-10.5
-7.6
2.9
-8.5
16.5
International reserves (billion US $)
32.3
4.'2
a 25.
129
22.9
22.5
11.8
12.0
46.2
Indicators of living standards
Grain production (kilograms per capita) '
890
1,890
120
460
840
320
90
380
370
Meat production (kilograms per capita)
107-
98
27
83
96
59
144
57
82
Automobile-registrations (units per thousand persons)
538 e
443 d
209 ci,
321 d
365 d
331 d
324 d
279 d
354 d
Energy consumption (barrels oil equivalent per capita) e
55
64
21
25
25
18
33
26
31
Consumer prices (percent growth in 1983)
3.2
5.8
1.8
NA
9.5
14.9
2.8
4.6
3.0
Telephones in use (units per thousand persons) e
791
656
476
413
414
318
486
477
434
Life expectancy (years) r
73
73
75
NA
74
72
75
71
72
a Data were converted from national currencies at average
1983 Par Rate/Market Rate factors.
b Excluding Department of Defense shipments.
C Data are for 1982. e Data are for 1979.
d Data are for 1981. - f Latest available data.
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Percent
(I)
Defense Expenditures as a Share of Gross National Product
CD
1965
1970
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
OECD .
Australia
4.4
3.3
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.5
Austria
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
Belgium
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.4
Canada
3.0
2.4
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.2
Denmark
2.8
2.3
2.5
2.3
2.3
? 2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
Finland
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.8
France
5.2
4.2
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.0
3.9
4.0
4.2
4.2
Greece
3.5
4.7
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.5
6.1
5.5
6.8
6.9
Ireland
1.4
1.1
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
2.0
Italy
3.3
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.6
Japan
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
0.9
1.0
1.0
Luxembourg
1.4
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.0
Netherlands
4.0
3.4
3.2
3.0
3.3
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
New Zealand
2.1
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.9
2.1
2.1
Norway
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.2
3.0
3.0
3.1
Portugal
6.0
6.5
5.2
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.7
Spain
2.7
3.1
2.7
2.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
Sweden
3.9
3.6
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.2
3.3
Switzerland
2.6
2.1
1.9
2.2
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.0
Turkey
5.0
4.2
5.6
' 6.0
5.7
5.1
4.2
4.2
4.8
5.2
United Kingdom
5.9
4.7
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.6
4.7
5.1
4.9
5.1
United States
7.1
7.4
5.4
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.6
5.0
5.2
5.8
West Germany
4.3
3.3
3.6
3.5
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
Less developed countries
NA
5.8
6.2
6.1
5.7
5.7
5.4
5.2
5.4
5.7
OPEC
NA
5.6
8.6
8.7
7.9
8.9
7.2
7.5
8.7
9.5
Iran
NA
7.8
14.7
13.2
11.3
15.8
6.1
7.3
10.6
NA
Nigeria
NA
5.9
5.4
3.8
3.9
3.5
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.3
Saudi Arabia
NA
11.9
17.4
19.1
15.3
15.9
18.1
14.4
13.1
15.4
Fs
. Except for the United States, data are from the United prices. Military expenditures are for current and capital mixed activities as atomic energy, space, and research and _1
States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, World expenditures to meet the needs of the armed forces, includ- development; military assistance to foreign countries; and n) .
Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, based on the ing expenditures of national defense agencies for military expenditures on paramilitary forces where they contribute 6 I
ratio of military expenditures to GNP at current market programs; expenditures for the military components of such substantially to a country's military capabilities.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
1970=100
Consumer Price Index
OECD
United States
Canada
Japan
European Community
Belgium
France
Italy
Netherlands
United Kingdom
West Germany
Communist countries
USSR a
Eastern Europe b
Bulgaria c
Czechoslovakia
East Germany
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Other
China d
Yugoslavia
a Implicit price index obtained from a comparison of indexes
of goods sold in the retail trade network in constant and in
current prices. The current price index is based on the values
of total retail and collective farm market sales in current
prices regularly published in Soviet statistical abstracts. The
index in constant prices is derived from the goods compo-
nents of the CIA index of total consumption. A more
complete explanation of the methodology and a discussion of
the relative merits of an "official" or "alternative" price
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
76
81
100
139
187
212
234
249
257
77
83
100
142
197
217
244
270
286
57
77
100
171
219
237
248
255
260
74
84
100
150
189
201
217
236
254
67
81
100
153
221
251
284
319
348
68
88
100
171
301
364
433
503
579
66
79
100
151
190
203
216
229
236
67
80
100
185
306
361
404
438
459
77
93
100
132
156
164
174
183
189
90
97
100
110
118
121
124
129
NA
73
86
100
116
138
? 161
168
176
NA
73
81
100
Ill
121
126
127
NA
NA
89
94
'100
102
110
113
114
NA
NA
81
87
100
122
154
166
178
190
204
78
87
100
130
179
201
256
513
NA
NA
NA
100
116
127
131
137
NA
NA
93
101
100
101
? .107
115
118
120
122
32
61
100
243
429
559
787
1,036
1,459
index are contained in "Soviet Economy in a New Perspec-
tive," US Congress, Joint Economic Committee, 14 October
1976, P. 631.
b Calculated differently from that for the USSR; the official
index of personal consumption in current prices was deflated
by a calculated index of personal consumption in constant
prices. An explanation of the methodology used to calculate
personal consumption is presented in T. P. Alton, "Index of
Personal Consumption in Poland, 1937 and 1946-1967,"
Occasional Papers of the Research Projection National
Income in East Central Europe (NY: L. W. International
Financial Research, Inc., 1973).
c Price indexes are calculated from official figures for total
consumption of the population, including estimates of health
and education expenses.
d Cost of living index for workers and staff members.
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SU04010e1 4SOM-4S03 *I
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STAT
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R
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Background
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
Cf)
Economic Profile: Communist Countries, 1983 ca
D
,=.:.
N
0
USSR Eastern Europe China Yugo- 0_
slavia 0
Total Bulgaria Czecho- East Hungary Poland Romania 0
-0
slovakia Germany ?<
>
-0
Aggregative data -0
Population 8
<
Million persons at midyear 272.5 110.9 8.9 15.4 16.7 10.7 36.6 22.6 1,020.9 22.8 (D
0_
Percent increase 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 NEGL 0.3 0.9 0.5 1.3 0.4
Gross national product a Ei
Billion 1983 US $ 1,843.4 723.0 53.8 120.8 154.8 71.8 212.3 109.7 341.7 122.3 7Z1
0
Percent real growth 3.0 1.9 NEGL 1.7 2.0 -0.5 3.8 1.1 9.0 -1.2 (T)
Di)
Per capita (1983 US $) 6,765 6,520 6,040 7,850 9,270 6,710 5,800 4,850 335 5,365 cn
0
Industrial production (percent growth) 3.4 2.8 2.4 1.4 2.1 0.8 4.7 2.0 7.8 NEGL n)
Industry 0
_1
Primary energy (million b/d oil equivalent) 29.2 6.5 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.3 2.5 1.2 9.9 0.6 _1
Electricity (billion kilowatt-hours) 1,416 445 43 76 105 26 126 70 351 66 0)
--.1
Crude steel (million metric tons) 153.0 57.4 2.8 15.0 7.2 3.6 16.2 12.6 39.9 4.2 R3
--.1
Cement (million metric tons) 128.0 61.5 5.7 10.5 12.0 4.2 16.2 13.0 106.0 9.9 . .
Trade 0
Exports (billion US $) 91.6 96.2 12.2 17.2 24.2 14.7 16.7 11.0 24.0 9.9 Fs
Imports (billion US 5) 80.4 91.0 12.5 17.1 22.8 13.8 16.0 8.7 18.4 12.2 7Z1
CI
Trade balance (billion US $) 11.2 5.2 -0.3 0.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 2.3 5.6 -2.3 13
CO
Indicators of living standards --.1
Grain production (kilograms per capita) 715 760 910 720 600 1,260 600 880 380 760
0
Meat production (kilograms per capita) 59 92 b 95 114 110 166 66 71 b 14 62 0
Cn
Automobile registrations (units per thousand persons) a 35 88 98 158 152 95 73 11 NA 114 0.)
CO
Energy consumption (barrels oil equivalent per capita) b 32 28 28 35 40 20 24 22 3 13 7J
0
Telephones in use (units per thousand persons) 84 d 115 . 120 a 201 d 183 d I 1 1 d 91 d 59 a NA 85 d 0
Life expectancy (years)1 69 NA 71 71 72 70 71 70 63 68 0
--.1
0
a Data were converted at US purchasing power equivalents. a Data are for 1981. a Data are for 1978. 0
b Data are for 1982. d Data are for 1979. 1 Latest available data. (t)
-r.
o
o
_.
n)
6
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
fl
1970=100
Index of Industrial Production for Communist Countries
USSR and Eastern Europe b
USSR
Official
Adjusted
Eastern Europe e
Adjusted
Bulgaria
Official
Adjusted
Czechoslovakia
Official
Adjusted
East Germany
Official
Adjusted
Hungary
Official
Adjusted
Poland
Official
Adjusted
Romania
Official
Adjusted
Other
North Korea
Official
a Preliminary.
b The official indexes purportedly measure changes in the
gross value of industrial production. In general, the gross
value of production equals the sum of the value of output of
all industrial enterprises. As a result, since both intermedi-
ate and final goods are included in the value of output of
each enterprise, industrial products are double-counted. If,
as the evidence suggests, intermediate product (for example
rolled metal) increases relative to final product (for example
machine tools) inflation of output from increased double-
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 a
44
67
100
143
172
178
184
190
198.
54
74
100
133
152
156
160
163
169
55
76
100
131
145
147
144
144
148
34
60
100
155
201
209
219
230
241
34
66
100
132
151
155
160
164
168
55
72
100
138
168
174
177
179
184
64
81
100
121
135
138
141
142
144
55
73
100
137
164
172
181
188
197
65
83
100
118
133
137
141
143
146
52
74
100
136
163
161
166
169
170
56
84
100
114
129
127.
126
126
127
45
67
100
164
207
207
184
180
NA
51
74
100 r
144
150
148
130
127
133
30
51
100
184
'272
290
298
301
316
35
58
100
155 ,
186
193
193
196
200
30
58
100
228
370
433
476
556
NA
counting takes place. In addition to inflation in the official
indicator from this source, disguised inflation also enters the
index through new-product pricing, where minor product
improvements result in a new-product price that is substan-
tially higher than can be justified by either improved quality
or increased production costs. Because output of these
"new" products grows from a small base, their rates of
growth will proceed at a higher rate than those of "old"
products.
Adjusted indexes of industrial production?parallel to those
used by the Federal Reserve Board for measuring US
industrial output?are constructed in order to circumvent
most of these distortions, that is, price-weighted samples of
several final products form output indexes for various
industrial components and these component indexes are
combined into an aggregate index for industry by use of
value-added weights.
c An official index is not published.
d An adjusted index is not available.
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9-Z1-0017600L00016?9001NL8dCll-V10
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Percent
USSR: Percent Distribution of Gross National
Product at Factor Cost,a by End Use
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983b
Total
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Consumption c
58
54
54
54
53
54
54
53
53
Investment
24
27
28
31
32
33
33
34
34
New fixed d
20
22
23
25
25
25
26
26
26
Defense, administration, R&D, inventory change, net
exports, and outlays n.e.c.
18
19
18
16
14
13
13
13
13
a Because of the well-known difficulties in using Soviet
established prices as a measure of resource burden, the
shares of GNP in this table are based on GNP at factor cost.
In calculating GNP at factor cost, 1970 end-use weights
have been revised from an established price basis to a factor
cost basis by subtracting turnover taxes and profits and
adding implicit amortization and capital charges and subsi-
dies. These revised weights are then moved over time by
indexes of the various end uses in constant prices.
b Preliminary.
c Including consumption of food, soft goods, durables, per-
sonal services, and personal and government outlays for
education and health.
d Including machinery and equipment, construction and
other capital outlays, and net additions to livestock.
Percent
USSR: Growth of Gross National Product at Factor Cost, by End Use a
Average Annual Rate of Growth
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1976-80
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983b
Total
5.1
5.3
3.7
2.6
0.2
1.7
2.1
2.6
3.0
Consumption c
3.7
5.3
3.6
2.7
2.9
3.0
2.1
0.8
2.6
Investment
7.6
6.0
5.4
4.0
0.3
3.1
4.0
3.4
4.2
New fixed d
7.3
6.4
4.8
3.2
-0.8
1.9
3.2
3.1
3.7
Defense, administration, R&D, inventory
change, net exports, and outlays n.e.c.
6.0
4.0
1.2
-0.6
-8.9
-6.6
-2.3
8.1
1.5
a Because of the well-known difficulties in using Soviet
established prices as a measure of resource burden, the
shares of GNP in this table are based on GNP at factor cost.
In calculating GNP at factor cost, 1970 end-use weights
have been revised from an established price basis to a factor
cost basis by subtracting turnover taxes and profits and
adding implicit amortization and capital charges and subsi-
dies. These revised weights are then moved over time by
indexes of the various end uses in constant prices.
b Preliminary.
c Including consumption of food, soft goods, durables, per-
sonal services, and personal and government outlays for
education and health.
d Including machinery and equipment, construction and
other capital outlays, and net additions to livestock.
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Sanitized CoPv Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
(D
0_
0
-0
>
-0
-0
8
<
(D
0_
Oh
71
a)
(T)
CU
cn
(D
N.)
0
_1
_1
a--)
-NI
K")
-NI
USSR: Share of Gross National Product,a by Sector of Origin
Percent
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983b
GNP
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Agriculture
23
21
16
15
14
14
14
14
Industry
30
32,
36
36
37
37
37
37
Construction
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
Transportation
8
9
10
10
10
11
10
10
Communications
1
1
1
I
1
1
1
1
Trade
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
Services
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Other
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
a Calculated at factor costs.
b Preliminary.
Percent
.
USSR: Growth of Gross National Product,a by Sector of Origin
.
0
)17'
71
0
T1
CO
-NI
0
0
(51
Ok)
CO
71
0
0
0
-NI
0
0
CO
-P
0
0
_1
0)
Average Annual
1980
1981
1982
1983b
1961-65
1966-70
1971-75
1476-80
1979
GNP
5.1
53
3.7
2.6
0.2
1.7
2.1
2.6
3.0
Agriculture c
3.6
3.9
-0.4
1.2
-6.3
-3.2
0.5
6.1
3.7
Industry
6.8
6.4
5.9
3.2
1.9
2.9
2.4
2.3
3.5
Construction
5.2
5.8
5.6
1.9
-1.2
2.0
2.1
0.8
3.5
Transportation
9.0
6.7
6.5
3.5
2.4
3.8
3.8
0.9
2.7
Communications
7.1
8.9
7.3
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.0
3.2
3.2
Trade
4.8
7.0
4.6
2.9
2.2
2.8
2.4
0.7
2.2
Services
4.4
4.3
3.4
2.8
3.0
3.2
2.5
2.2
2.3
Other
5.1
5.3
3.7
2.6
0.2
1.7
2.1
2.6
3.0
a Calculated at factor cost.
b Preliminary.
c Excluding intra-agricultural use of farm products but does
not make an adjustment for purchases by agriculture from
other sectors.
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USSR: Aggregate Factor Productivity
Average Annual Rate of Growth in Percent
1961-65 a
1966-70 a
1971-75 a
1976-80 a
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 b
Gross national product c
5.1
5.3
3.7
2.6
0.2
1.7
2.1
2.6
3.0
Factor productivity
0.6
1.1
-0.5
-0.8
-3.1
-1.5
-0.8
-0.5
NEGL
Manhours
3.4
3.2
2.0
1.4
-0.8
0.6
1.3
1.7
2.2
Capital
-3.4
-2!()
-4.0
-4.1
-6.4
-4.6
-4.0
-3.5
-3.1
Land
4.5
5.6
2.9
2.7
-0.1
2.2
3.4
2.2
3.0
Combined inputs d
4.5
4.1
4.2
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.0
Manhours
1.6
2.0
1.7
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.8
Capital
8.8
7.4
8.0
6.9
7.0
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.3
Land
0.6
-0.3
0.8
-0.1
0.3
-0.5
-1.3
0.4
NEGL
For computing average annual rates of growth, the base
year is the year prior to the stated period.
b Preliminary.
c Based on indexes of GNP (1970 rubles), by sector of origin,
at factor cost.
d Inputs of manhours, capital, and land are combined using
weights of 55.8 percent, 41.2 percent, 3.0 percent, respec-
tively, in a Cobb-Douglas (linear homogeneous) production
function. These weights represent the distribution of labor
costs (wages, other income, and social insurance deductions),
capital costs (depreciation and a calculated capital charge),
and land rent in 1970, the base year for all indexes
underlying the growth rate calculations. - -
USSR: Industrial Factor Productivity
Average Annual Rate of Growth in Percent
1961-65 a
1966-70 a
1971-75 a
1976-80 a
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 b
Industrial production
6.8
6.4
5.9
3.2
1.9
2.9
2.4
2.3
3.5
Factor productivity
-0.5
0.3
0.6
-1.3
-2.5
-1.1
-1.9
-1.6
-0.3
Manhours
3.7
3.2
4.4
1.9
0.9
2.1
1.8
1.7
3.0
Capital
-4.2
-2.2
-2.6
-4.2
-5.5
-3.9
-5.0
-4.4
-3.2
Combined inputs c
7.3
6.0
5.2
4.6
4.5
4.0
4.3
4.0
3.8
Manhours
2.9
3.1
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.5
Capital
11.4
8.8
8.7
7.7
7.9
7.1
7.8
7.0
6.9
For computing the average armual rates of growth, the
base year is the year prior to the stated period.
b Preliminary.
c Inputs of manhours and capital are combined using
weights of 47.8 percent and 52.2 percent, respectively, in a
Cobb-Douglas (linear homogeneous) production
function. These weights represent the distribution of labor
costs (wages and social insurance deductions) and capital
costs (depreciation and a capital charge) in 1970, the base
year for all indexes underlying the growth rate calculations.
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USSR: Aggregate Factor Productivity
Average Annual Rate of Growth in Percent
1961-65 a
1966-70 a
1971-75 a
1976-80 a
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 b
Gross national product c
5.1
5.3
3.7
2.6
0.2
1.7
2.1
2.6
3.0
Factor productivity
0.6
1.1
-0.5
-0.8
-3.1
-1.5
-0.8
-0.5
NEGL
Manhours
3.4
3.2
2.0
1.4
-0.8
0.6
1.3
1.7
2.2
Capital
-3.4
-2!()
-4.0
-4.1
-6.4
-4.6
-4.0
-3.5
-3.1
Land
4.5
5.6
2.9
2.7
-0.1
2.2
3.4
2.2
3.0
Combined inputs d
4.5
4.1
4.2
3.5
3.4
3.2
3.0
3.1
3.0
Manhours
1.6
2.0
1.7
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.8
Capital
8.8
7.4
8.0
6.9
7.0
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.3
Land
0.6
-0.3
0.8
-0.1
0.3
-0.5
-1.3
0.4
NEGL
For computing average annual rates of growth, the base
year is the year prior to the stated period.
b Preliminary.
c Based on indexes of GNP (1970 rubles), by sector of origin,
at factor cost.
d Inputs of manhours, capital, and land are combined using
weights of 55.8 percent, 41.2 percent, 3.0 percent, respec-
tively, in a Cobb-Douglas (linear homogeneous) production
function. These weights represent the distribution of labor
costs (wages, other income, and social insurance deductions),
capital costs (depreciation and a calculated capital charge),
and land rent in 1970, the base year for all indexes
underlying the growth rate calculations. - -
USSR: Industrial Factor Productivity
Average Annual Rate of Growth in Percent
1961-65 a
1966-70 a
1971-75 a
1976-80 a
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 b
Industrial production
6.8
6.4
5.9
3.2
1.9
2.9
2.4
2.3
3.5
Factor productivity
-0.5
0.3
0.6
-1.3
-2.5
-1.1
-1.9
-1.6
-0.3
Manhours
3.7
3.2
4.4
1.9
0.9
2.1
1.8
1.7
3.0
Capital
-4.2
-2.2
-2.6
-4.2
-5.5
-3.9
-5.0
-4.4
-3.2
Combined inputs c
7.3
6.0
5.2
4.6
4.5
4.0
4.3
4.0
3.8
Manhours
2.9
3.1
1.5
1.3
1.0
0.7
0.6
0.7
0.5
Capital
11.4
8.8
8.7
7.7
7.9
7.1
7.8
7.0
6.9
For computing the average armual rates of growth, the
base year is the year prior to the stated period.
b Preliminary.
c Inputs of manhours and capital are combined using
weights of 47.8 percent and 52.2 percent, respectively, in a
Cobb-Douglas (linear homogeneous) production
function. These weights represent the distribution of labor
costs (wages and social insurance deductions) and capital
costs (depreciation and a capital charge) in 1970, the base
year for all indexes underlying the growth rate calculations.
9-Z1-0017600LOOn16?9001AIL8dC11-V10 LZ/L0/1-1,0Z eseelel -104 paikaiddV Ado pezweS
(I)
0_
0
0
-0
<
-0
-0
0)
<
(I)
a
ah
7:1
a)
(T)
DJ
cn
a)
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CO
USSR: Stock of Fixed Capital, by Sector a
Billion Rubles
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Total capital stock b
398
601
860
1,256
1,637
1,742
1,851
1,968
2,090
Industry
100
168
255
385
514
554
593
.634
NA
Ferrous metallurgy
10
17
26
38
47
51
53
57
NA
Chemicals and petrochemicals
5
13
23
36
51
56
60
65
NA
Fuels and power
32
51
78
112
146
157
167
178
NA
Machine building and metalworking
18
32
51
82
118
129
139
149
NA
Construction materials
6
9
14
22
29
30
32
34
NA
Consumer goods
14
22
32
47
59
62
66
70
NA
Timber, woodworking, and paper
6
9
13
18
24
25
27
28
NA
Other
9
15
18
30
40
44
49
53
NA
Construction industry
7
12
22
35
52
55
60
65
NA
Trade, public dining, material, technical
supply
11
20
31
47
62
66
70
73
NA
Agriculture b
54
77
106
167
223
238
254
272
NA
Transport and communications
54
83
117
171
223
237
252
267
NA
Housing
120
159
204
267
323
338
354
372
NA
Services
52
82
125
184
240
254
268
285
NA
a The fixed capital series presented here is expressed in
prices of 1973 with the value of stocks estimated as of 31
December of the respective year.
b Including the value of basic herds.
9-Z1-0017600LOOn16?9001AIL8dC11-V10 L/LO/L LO eSe3i3i -104 panaiddv Ado Pez!4!ueS
Average Annual Rate of Growth in Percent
USSR: Industrial Production, by
Branch of Industry a
1961-65"
1966-70
"
1971-75"
1976-80"
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 c
Industrial materials
7.1
5.8
5.4
2.3
0.1
2.1
1.8
1.4
3.5
Electricity
11.5
7.9
7.0
4.5
2.9
4.5
2.5
3.1
3.6
Fuels
6.3
5.0
5.0
3.1
2.9
1.8
1.3
1.8
1.2
Ferrous metals
7.2
5.1
4.0
0.9
-0.8
-0.4
-0.2
-0.4
4.0
Nonferrous metals
8.2
7.9
5.9
2.3
2.6
1.7
1.3
1.5
3.0
Wood, pulp, and paper products
4.0
2.6
2.6
-0.5
-3.0
0.6
1.8
0.4
3.6
Construction materials
5.4
5.8
5.4
1.1
-4.9
0.9
1.3
NEGL
3.1
Chemicals
12.0
8.9
8.6
3.6
-0.2
4.7
4.0
1.8
6.0
Total machinery
7.4
7.2
7.8
5.0
4.1
4.4
3.2
3.8
4.0
Producer durables
8.5
8.0
8.7
5.8
3.1
4.9
3.3
4.3
4.5
Consumer durables
9.8
11.5
11.2
6.6
3.4
6.9
5.3
4.6
2.0
Nondurable consumer goods
4.9
6.4
3.6
1.9
2.2
1.2
2.0
1.3
3.0
Soft goods
2.6
7.2
2.7
2.6
1.8
2.3
1.9
-0.5
1.0
Processed foods
6.9
5.8
4.2
1.3
2.5
0.4
2.0
2.8
4.7
Total industrial production
6.8
6.4
5.9
3.2
1.9
2.9
2.4
2.3
3.5
Based on CIA estimates rather than Soviet official series.
The latter are believed to contain an upward bias in rates of
growth because of double-counting and disguised inflation.
The branch indexes shown above are formed by combining a
sample of products in which intrabranch purchases have
been excluded. The indexes for industrial materials,
consumer nondurables, and total industrial production are
formed by combining the component branch indexes using
1970 value-added weights.
b The base year is the year prior to the stated period. Rates
of growth are derived from unrounded data.
c Preliminary.
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
C'
Million US $
USSR: Hard Currency Balance of Payments
Trade balance
Exports, f.o.b.b
Imports, f.o.b.
Net interest
Other invisibles and hard currency trade not included
elsewhere c
Current account balance
Borrowing from abroad d
Change in assets e
Gold sales
Capital account balance
Errors and omissions f
a Estimated.
b Including military exports to the LDCs.
c Including estimated net receipts from tourism, transporta-
tion, and official transfers.
d Soviet drawings less repayments on Western credits.
Net change in Soviet assets held with Western commercial
banks.
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 a
-250
-186
-320
-4,797
1,837
1,714
95
4,476
4,695
768
1,374
2,664
9,780
23,272
27,784
27,978
31,977
32,392
1,018
1,560
2,984
14,577
21,435
26,070
27,778
27,501
27,697
-5
-15
-80
-570
-800
-710
-1,300
-1,500
-1,300
-65
-45
500
760
1,140
900
1,000
1,100
1,100
-320
-246
100
-4,607
2,177
1,904
-205
4,076
4,495
90
40
290
5,400
1,675
-185
3,000
-865
560
0
0
-25
395
-2,825
235
140
-1,575
400
200
550
725
1,490
1,580
2,700
1,100
750
290
590
265
6,520
340
1,630
5,840
-1,340
1,710
30
-344
-365
-1,913
-2,517
-3,534
-5,635
-2,736
-6,205
f Including Soviet hard currency aid to and trade with other
CEMA countries and trade credits extended to finance
Soviet exports-including arms-to non-Communist hard
currency trade partners.
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
Million US $
(I)
Soviet Foreign Trade a
(D
0_
Total
Trade
Communist Countries
Non-Communist Countries
Total
Eastern
Europe
China
Other
Asia
Other b
Total
Developed
Countries
Less Developed Countries
Total
Unspecified
1960
Exports
5,558
4,210
3,071
816
66
256
1,348
1,022
326
31
Imports
5,623
3,974
2,792
847
98
237
1,649
1,120
529
33
1965
Exports
8,166
5,555
4,551
192
165
647
2,611
1,506
1,105
270
Imports
8,050
5,605
4,668
225
120
592
2,444
1,647
797
2
1970
Exports
12,787
8,359
6,752
25
415
1,167
4,428
2,453
1,975
792
Imports
11,720
7,630
6,627
22
156
826
4,090
2,849
1,241
16
1975
Exports
33,407
20,271
16,494
129
480
3,168
13,136
8,588
4,548
1,899
Imports
37,070
19,415
15,723
150
277
3,265
17,655
13,566
4,089
31
1978
Exports
52,435
31,244
24,910
241
726
5,367
21,190
12,920
8,270
4,219
Imports
50,798
30,494
24,661
257
521
5,055
20,304
16,244
4,060
65
1979
Exports
64,912
36,152
28,380
268
1,081
6,423
28,760
19,578
9,182
4,367
Imports
57,958
32,810
26,761
240
618
5,191
25,148
20,405
4,743
49
1980
Exports
76,437
41,431
32,216
261
1,201
7,752
35,006
24,934
10,072
4,766
Imports
68,473
36,420
29,407
226
681
6,106
32,053
24,386
7,667
168
1981
Exports
79,377
43,353
33,774
115
1,445
8,019
36,024
24,416
11,608
5,058
Imports -
73,158
37,172
29,399
131
582
7,060
35,986
25,356
10,630
209
1982
Exports
87,168
47,107
36,288
166
1,638
9,015
40,061
26,224
13,837
6,424
Imports
77,847
42,525
33,566
143
788
8,028
35,322
26,204
9,118
6,173
1983
Exports
91,648
51,006
39,355
345
1,768
9,538
40,642
26,610
14,032
7,069
Imports
80,440
45,502
37,162
314
764
7,262
34,938
26,364
9,574
287
0
0
-0
,<
>
-0
-0
0)
<
(D
0_
ah
71
(D
CT)
CU
cn
(D
N)
0
_1
_1
0)
-NI
R3
-NI
. .
0
Fs
71
0
T1
CO
-NI
a Official Soviet statistics using US dollar exchange rates for 0
the Soviet foreign exchange ruble as announced by the State 0
Bank of the USSR. Exports and imports are f.o.b. (51
Ok)
b Cuba, Mongolia, and Yugoslavia. c0
7:1
0
0
0
--.1
0
C1
CO 1
-P [
C'
0 !
Ml
6
Cl)
CD
0
0
Chinese Foreign Trade a
Million US $
Total
Trade
Communist Countries
Non-Communist Countries
Total
Eastern
USSR
Other b
Total
Developed
Less
o
< ?
Europe
Countries
Developed
>
-0
Countries .
"0
(7)
1965
Exports
2,035
650
95
225
330
1,385
575
810
<
0
Imports
1,680
515
110
190
215
1,165
805
360
0_
1970
Exports
2,155
480
255
20
205
1,675
660
1,015
Ei
Imports
2,045
390
225
25
140
1,655
1,370
285
71
1975
Exports
7,130
1,375
630
150
595
5,755
2,610
3,145
(D
Imports
6,830
1,005
595
130
.280
5,825
4,985
840
(T)
DJ
(f)
a)
1978
Exports
Imports
10,175
10,350
1,645
1,570
910
935
255
240
480
395
8,530
8,780
3,775
7,265
4,755
1,515 0
1979
Exports
13,735
1,755
1,050
240
465
11,980
5,645
6,335
N.)
0
_1
Imports
14,490
1,945
1,200
270
475
12,545
10,170
2,375
1980
Exports
18,925
1,885
1,130
230
525
17,040
8,270
8,770
_1
a3
Imports
19,305
1,945
1,110
295
540
17,360
13,515
3,845
--.1
R3
--.1
1981
Exports
Imports
21,495
17,940
1,240
1,270
745
700
130
115
365
455
20,255
16,670
10,045
12,740
10,210
3,930
. .
1982
Exports
23,435
1,210
660
145
405
22,230
10,225
12,005
0
Imports
16,690
1,670
925
165
580
15,020
10,805
4,215
Fs
1983
Exports
23,985
1,290
600
310
380
22,695
9,945
12,750
71
Imports
18,400
1,720
865
340
515
16,680
11,715
4,965
CI
Data are f.o.b, and rounded to the nearest US $5 million.
-0
CO
b Including data for Albania, Cuba, Mongolia, North Korea,
Vietnam, and Yugoslavia.
0 c Including data for Hong Kong and Macao.
0
cri
Million US $
(I)
ea
East European Foreign Trade a
0_
O Total Communist Countries Non-Communist Countries
O Trade
-0
Total USSR Eastern Other b Total Developed Less
> Europe Countries Developed
0)
--.1
R3
--.1
. .
0
71
0
T1
CO
--.1
0
0 nist countries was derived by converting the value of the basis.
trade expressed in the currency of each East European b Including data for Albania, China, Cuba, Mongolia, North
CA)
country to rubles and then to dollars at the prevailing Korea, Vietnam, and Yugoslavia.
foreign exchange rate. Exports are on an f.o.b. basis.
(r)
FsImports
Countries
1960
Exports
7,624
5,523
2,817
2,102
604
2,101
1,603
498
Imports
7,754
5,541
2,954
2,084
503
2,213
1,772
441
1965
Exports
11,789
8,423
4,692
3,172
559
3,366
2,581
785
Imports
11,611
8,114
4,436
3,111
567
3,497
2,765
732
1970
Exports
18,159
12,546
6,612
4,955
979
5,613
4,426
1,187
Imports
18,522
12,503
6,803
4,908
792
6,019
5,052
967
1975
Exports
45,269
30,193
15,619
12,230
2,344
15,076
11,282
3,794
Imports
51,314
30,607
16,345
12,238
2,024
20,707
17,687
3,020
1978
Exports
65,512
44,574
22,997
18,071
3,506
20,938
15,324
5,614
Imports
72,597
46,091
24,778
18,046
3,267
26,506
21,889
4,617
1979
Exports
76,862
51,021
27,082
20,372
3,567
25,841
18,836
7,005
Imports
82,586
51,579
28,516
19,834
3,229
31,007
24,392
6,615
1980
Exports
86,169
54,899
29,940
20,523
4,436
31,270
22,611
8,659
Imports
91,190
56,046
32,254
20,433
3,359
35,144
26,171
8,973
1981
Exports
83,758
53,646
29,413
18,832
5,401
30,112
19,903
10,209
87,501
57,330
33,758
19,311
4,261
30,171
22,850
7,321
1982 c
Exports
91,422
60,519
33,953
21,715
4,851
30,903
20,319
10,584
Imports
87,136
62,317
36,820
20,106
4,391
25,819
19,014
6,805
1983 c
Exports
96,156
65,863
37,149
23,296
5,418
30,293
20,370
9,923
Imports
91,001
66,272
39,341
; 21,345
5,586
24,729
18,009
6,720
. Official
East European statistics. Trade with the Commu- Imports are f.o.b. except for Hungary, which is on a c.i.f. c Preliminary.
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C CD
East European Exports, by Country a
Million US $
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983"
Bulgaria
571
1,176
2,004
4,807
9,013
10,491
10,590
11,679
12,249
USSR
307
614
1,078
2,643
4,673
5,267
5,142
5,972
6,819
Eastern Europe
15,1
275
431
968
1,622
1,741
1,559
1,979
2,096
Developed countries
73
190
289
474
1,298
1,638
1,418
1,288
1,278
Less developed countries
18
52
125
463
1,037
1,383
1,844
2,010
1,601
Czechoslovakia
1,929
2,688
3,792
8,158
13,313
15,286
15,230
16,683
17,249
USSR
659
1,023
1,222
2,664
4,771
5,493
5,705
6,609
7,314
Eastern Europe
561
789
1,213
2,621
4,046
4,294
4,101
4,603
4,625
Developed countries
335
468
783
1,673
2,690
3,242
2,993
2,962
2,680
Less developed countries
200
? 255
331
706
1,044
1,302
1,410
1,395
1,462
East Germany c
2,207
3,085
4,647
10,680
16,610
18,848
19,723
22,496
24,228
USSR
924
1,311
1,742
3,700
6,080
6,666
7,169
8,067
8,901
Eastern Europe
588
852
1,386
3,368
' 5,783
5,303
4,929
5,412
5,861
Developed countries
446
657
1,078
2,631
3,564
4,542
5,446
6,515
6,766
Less developed countries
89
131
183
431
977
1,356
1,268
1,797
1,700
Hungary
874
1,510
2,317
5,694
11,117
12,503
11,950
13,835
14,727
USSR
256
525
790
2,154
3,779
4,579
4,590
5,232
5,408
Eastern Europe
278
468
648
2,666
3,303
3,282
3,147
3,925
4,304
Developed countries
192
342
630
1,327
2,636
3,040
2,437
2,672
2,825
Less developed countries
58
107
137
364
723
848
1,015
1,198
1,133
Poland
1,326
2,228
3,548
10,510
16,860
17,249
13,654
15,687
16,703
USSR
390
781
1,251
3,362
, 6,092
5,609
4,480
5,722
6,460
Eastern Europe
335
528
882
2,671
3,739
3,801
3,265
3,935
4,265
Developed countries
403
647
1,024
3,278
5,056
5,857
3,826
3,672
3,621
Less developed countries
93
172
258
845
1,294
1,649
1,174
1,550
1,227
Romania
717
1,102
1,851
5,420
9,949
11,792
12,611
11,042
11,000
USSR
281
438
529
1,096
1,687
2,326
2,327
2,351
2,247
Eastern Europe
189
260
395
1,011
1,879
2,102
1,831
1,861
2,145
Developed countries
154
277
622
1,899
3,592
4,292
3,783
3,210
3,200
Less developed countries
40
68
153
985
1,930
2,121
3,498
2,634
2,800
Domestic currency converted into US dollars at the ex-
change rate prevailing at time of transactions. Exports are
on an f.o.b. basis. Trade with the Communist countries was
derived by converting the value of the trade expressed in the
currency of each East European country to rubles and then
to dollars at the prevailing foreign exchange rate.
b Preliminary.
c The official West German deutsche mark/US dollar rate
was used to convert intra-German trade in East German
marks to US dollars because using the East German mark/
US dollar rate understates the value of trade. East Germany
converts West German marks into East German marks at
parity, but actually the East German mark is worth less
than the West German mark.
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East European Imports, by Country a
Million US $
1960
1965
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983b
Bulgaria
625
1,178
1,831
5,528
8,580
9,777
10,905
11,887
12,526
USSR
332
589
955
2,826
5,042
5,639
6,084
6,822
7,437
Eastern Europe
174
236
372
1,007
1,587
1,777
1,702
1,956
2,274
Developed countries
89
266
355
1,289
. 1,321
1,657
2,128
1,961
1,673
Less developed countries
13
37
81
209
300
378
492
723
742
Czechoslovakia
1,816
2,673
3,695
8,874
14,371
15,537
15,295
16,449
17,126
USSR
630
955
1,209
2,818
5,131
5,658
6,095
7,145
7,924
Eastern Europe
524
851
1,123
2,839
4,401
4,505
4,212
4,442
4,553
Developed countries
360
514
917
2,244
3,408
3,691
3,321
3,117
2,708
Less developed countries
161
197
214
501
709
829
758
725
663
East Germany c
2,194
2,823
4,923
11,947
18,384
20,774
20,014
20,899
22,803
USSR
958
1,205
1,945
4,172
6,546
7,508
7,685
8,966
9,174
Eastern Europe
496
693
1,246
3,147
5,105
4,947
4,735
4,588
4,711
Developed countries
484
656
1,378
3,704
5,681
6,332
5,886
5,700
6,378
Less developed countries
90
120
182
483
885
1,288
762
965
1,000
Hungary
976
1,520
2,505
6,795
11,919
12,628
12,672
13,279
13,823
USSR
303
553
832
2,284
4,325
4,620
4,599
5,178
5,476
Eastern Europe
317
415
726
1,813
2,875
3,186
3,183
3,268
3,715
Developed countries
237
383
678
1,966
3,330
3,719
3,654
3,195
2,893
Less developed countries
58
113
177
498
712
848
845
913
1,102
Poland
1,495
2,340
3,608
12,752
18,164
19,437
16,158
15,063
16,023
USSR
465
728
1,361
i 3,294
5,831
6,698
6,821
6,721
7,117
Eastern Europe
400
706
1,000
2,354
3,729
3,963
3,517
3,724
4,236
Developed countries
447
583
938
6,199
6;665
6,699
4,336
3,176
2,857
Less developed countries
99
210
196
597
1,373
1,789
924
598
713
Romania
648
1,077
1,960
5,418
11,168
13,037
12,457
9,559
8,700
USSR
266
406
501
951
1,641
2,131
2,474
1,988
2,213
Eastern Europe
173
210.
441
1,078
2,137
2,055
1,962
2,128
1,856
Developed countries
155
363
786
2,285
3,987
4,073
3,525
1,865
1,500
Less developed countries
20
55
117
732
2,636
3,841
3,540
2,881
2,500
Imports are f.o.b. except for Hungary, which is on a c.i.f. basis.
Trade with the Communist countries was derived by converting
the value of the trade expressed in the currency of each East
European country to rubles and then to dollars at the prevailing
foreign exchange rate. Country totals include trade with central-
ly planned economy countries other than the USSR and Eastern
Europe.
b preliminary, rate understates the value of trade. East Germany converts West
c The official West German deutsche mark/US dollar rate was German marks into East German marks at parity, but actually
used to convert intra-German trade in East German marks to the East German mark is worth less than the West German
US dollars because using the East German mark/US dollars mark.
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USSR: Hard Currency Debt to the West
Billion US $
1971
1975
1976
1977
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983 a
Commercial debt 0.4
6.9
9.7
9.8
10.5
10.0
13.0
11.3
11.5
Government-backed debt 1.4
3.6
5.0
5.8
7.6
7.8
7.9
8.7
9.0
Gross debt 1.8
10.5
14.7
15.6
18.1
17.8
20.9
20.0
20.5
Assets with Western banks 1.2
3.1
4.7
4.4
8.8
8.6
8.4
10.0
9.6
Net debt 0.6
7.4
10.0
11.2
9.3
9.2
12.5
10.0
10.9
Debt service 0.3
1.8
2.4
3.1
4.2
4.7
5.4
5.8
6.0
Debt-service ratio (percent) b 10
15
16
17
16
15
17
16
17
a Estimated.
b Debt service as a share of commodity export earnings plus
sales of arms, gold, interest receipts, net invisibles, and
transfers.
USSR: Gold Production and Reserves
Million Troy Ounces
Production
Reserves
Production
Reserves
1965
5.33
29.61
1975
8.29
61.08
1967
5.94
36.84
1976
8.87
57.77
1968
6.23
41.37
1977
9.19
54.72
1969
6.59
46.77
1978
9.54
49.08
1970
7.00
52.43
1979
9.87
50.83
1971
7.20
57.77
1980
10.20
58.22
1972
7.81
59.22
1981
10.50
60.72
1973
8.03
56.16
1982
10.60
68.10
1974
8.42
59.02
1983
10.70
76.87
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Million US $
(I)
o)
C/) n
Da Eastern Europe: Gross and Net Hard Currency Debt to the West ,=.
n N
,=. 0
N 0_
(D
a 1971 1974 1975 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 00
O -0
O ,<
ZS Total >
<
O " Gross 6,072 15,352 23,233 36,743 47,490 58,190 70,340 66,810 62,080 62,560 -0
-0
0 Net 4,927 12,732 18,857 32,908 42,856 51,742 58,480 59,490 55,550 53,950 0)
"0
0) Bulgaria (D
< 0_
(D Gross 743 1,703 2,640 3,707 4,263 4,032 3,550 3,050 2,750 2,460
Net 723 1,360 2,257 3,169 3,710 3,292 2,760 2,225 1,750 1,400 (r)
0_
h) Czechoslovakia 71
(D
71 Gross 485 1,048 1,132 2,616 3,206 4,099 9,200 4,500 4,050 3,700 CT)
(D Cl)
CT) Net 160 640 827 2,121 2,513 3,050 3,670 3,400 3,300 2,700 (.f)
CD
(I) (I)East Germany
IV
(D Gross 1,408 3,136 . 5,388 7,828 9,666 12,300 14,100 14,900 13,000 12,650 0
IV _1
0 Net 1,205 2,592 3,748 6,842 8,320 10,340 11,600 12,300 10,700 9,000 _1
_1
0)
_1 Hungary
-NI
0) Gross 1,071 2,129 3,135 5,020 7,290 8,140 9,090 8,700 7,700 8,250 R3
-NI -NI
R3 Net 848 1,537 2,195 3,856 6,349 6,910 7,000 7,050 6,600 6,750 . .
-NI Poland 0
. .
O Gross 1,138 4,643 8,014 13,967 17,844 22,669 25,000 25,500 24,800 26,500 Fs
Fs Net 764 4,120 7,381 13,532 16,972 21,500 24,350 24,700 23,800 25,350 71
0
71 Romania -0
O CO
-0 Gross 1,227 2,693 2,924 3,605 5,221 6,950 9,400 10,160 9,780 9,000 -NI
CO
-NI Net 1,227 2,483 2,449 3,388 4,992 6,650 9,100 9,815 9,400 8,750
? 0
0
0 01
0 0.)
01 (.0
0.) 71
(.0 - 0
71 0
0 0
0 --.1
0 0 0
--.1 0
0 (.0
0 -P
CO 0
-P 0
0 _1
0 IV
(S)
_1
IV
6)
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A4pnDes pouo!4oN
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STAT
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R
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
Background
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Potential Strategic Vulnerability as a Function of
Areas of Dependence and Foreign Involvement
Potential vulnerability
0 Critical
Moderate
0 Low to none
Dependence Areas
Foreign Involvement
Foreign owned/
foreign based
US owned/
foreign based
Foreign owned/
US based
Research
-,
_,/
C)
0
E)
Know-how
Design
Manufacturing
(---
...)
r--
0
Manufacturing
equipment
r- a
_I
(-----. \ .
?._. }
0
Finished product/systems
(---
r -.-
(---.,_.) b
K_
Components/parts
Feedstock/materials
C)
(____"\
Servicesupport
0
0
0
a Multiple sources of supply helps the issue and converse.
bAssuming high-value added parts from overseas.
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Minerals and Metals: Net Imports as a Share of Consumption, 1983
Percent
United Slates
96
17
77
2
66
96
37
99
77
Japan
100
96
100
46
40
96
98
93
95
95
European Community
75
0
100 100
43
63
99
99
90 100 97
USSR and Eastern Europe
35
5
5
45
15
5
Bauxite
Copper
Nickel Lead
Zinc
Tin
Cobalt
Iron Ore Manganese Chromium
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Percent
Importance of Soviet-Western Trade to
Selected Western Countries
Soviet Trading Partner
Exports to USSR Imports From USSR
as a Share of Total as a Share of Total
Exports Imports
Share of Trading Partner's GNP
Exports to the
USSR
Imports From the
USSR
1980
1981
1982
1980
1981
1982
1980
1981
1982
1980
1981
1982
Argentina
20.1
32.4
31.4
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.8
1.1
2.0
NEGL
NEGL
NEGL
Australia
5.2
3.3
3.1
0.1
NEGL
0.5
0.8
0.6
0.5
NEGL
NEGL
NEGL
Austria
2.7
3.1
3.5
4.2
6.2
5.1
0.6
0.6
0.6
1.3
0.7
0.5
Brazil
1.8
2.7
2.5
0.2
0.1
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.5
NEGL
NEGL
NEGL
Canada
1.9
2.1
2.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.2
NEGL
NEGL
NEGL
France
2.1
1.8
1.6
2.6
2.8
2.5
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.6
0.9
Italy
1.6
1.7
2.0
3.1
3.4
4.1
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.8
0.9
1.1
Japan
2.1
2.1
2.8
1.3
1.4
1.3
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.2
0.2
0.1
Netherlands
0.7
0.9
0.6
1.6
2.6
4.0
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.8
1.2
0.2
United Kingdom
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.8
1.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
United States
0.7
1.0
1.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1 ,
0.5
NEGL
0.1
NEGL
West Germany
2.3
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.5
3.0
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.7
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Gross National Product, by End Use,
in the US and the USSR, 1983
Billion 1970 Rubles
USSR b
US
Billion 1976 US $
USSR as a USSR US
Percent of US
USSR as a
Percent of US
Geometric Mean
of the Comparisons
in Dollars and Rubles a
USSR as a Percent of US
GNP
544.3
1,196.3
45.5
1,357.3
2,031.1
66.8
55.1
of which:
Consumption
293.5
908.9
.?
32.3
668.6
1,387.6
48.2
39.5
New fixed investment
165.7
170.7
97.1
452.7
352.0
128.6
1 I 1.7
a A generally preferred procedure for making international
economic comparisons is to convert each country's GNP to
the currency of the other. Two comparisons can then be
made, one in rubles and one in dollars, and, in contrast to
the Table in last year's Handbook, both are presented above.
The two comparisons will yield different answers. This
phenomenon is commonly known as the "index number
problem," and it results from differences in the relative price
and quantity structures found in each country. Goods
produced in relatively large quantities in either country tend
to sell at relatively low prices in that country, and vice versa.
Soviet GNP is, therefore, a larger share of US GNP when
comparisons are made in dollars since dollars place a greater
weight than ruble prices do on investment and defense
goods, which account for larger shares of output in the
Soviet Union than in the United States.
The important point about index numbers is that valuations
in either rubles or dollars are equally correct. When a single
estimate is required, economists by convention often resort
to the geometric mean of the two as a reasonable point
estimate that falls between the ruble and dollar compari-
sons.
The geometric mean comparison is presented here, although
the reader is cautioned that it is used for its presentational
convenience and does not, strictly speaking, represent a more
valid result than that presented in either currency.
The estimate of Soviet GNP in dollars presented here is not
consistent with that given in Table 9, which is expressed in
"geometric mean dollars" for consistency with the other
data in that table. The approach used in this table, however,
is theoretically preferable.
b The above Soviet GNP data in established prices should
not be used in conjunction with Soviet foreign trade data
appearing in Tables 64-66. These latter tables use official
foreign exchange rates to derive dollar values for trade; we
have yet to estimate the value of Soviet foreign trade in
terms of actual purchasing power, which would allow for an
estimate of the share of foreign trade in Soviet national
income.
The magnitudes for the Soviet end-use components were
calculated to measure value of output compared with the
United States but not the cost in resources. The share of
total economic resources devoted to a particular end use
(such as defense) or the share of total output originating in
an individual sector (for example, agriculture or industry) in
the USSR should be measured in internal ruble prices and
costs.
The identified end uses of GNP are defined as follows:
(1) Consumption includes personal expenditures for goods
and services for all purposes and noninvestment outlays by
government for goods and services for health and education.
(2) New fixed investment is defined as the sum of expendi-
tures for gross private domestic investment net of inven-
tories; for public construction other than that for military
facilities; and for equipment purchased by the government
except that for defense. Since part of new fixed investment
in the United States is capital repair, one-half of Soviet
expenditures on capital repair is included in Soviet new fixed
investment.
Other uses of GNP include defense, space, research and
development, inventory change, administration, net exports,
and a statistical discrepancy. The total value for these
expenditures cannot be derived for the USSR by subtrac-
tion, however.
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Production of Selected Consumer Goods in the US and USSR
1965
1960
1970
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Food
Grain production a (kilograms per capita)
United States b
1,003
944
910
1,154
1,345
1,184
1,450
1,456
889
USSR a
586
524
769
551
681
712
598
667
716
Meat production d (kilograms per capita)
United States
71
74
110
106
104
106
107
104
107
USSR
41
43
51
59
58
57
57
57
59
Persons supplied per farmworker
United States
32
43
57
62
64
65
65
65
66
USSR
5
6
6
7
8
8
8
9
9
Transportation
Passenger automobile production (units per hundred persons)
United States a
3.69
4.79
3.19
3.11
3.74
2.81
2.71
2.17
2.87
USSR
0.06
0.09
0.14
0.47
0.50
0.50
0.49
0.48
0.48
Household equipment
Washing machine production (units per thousand persons)
United States a
USSR
Washing machines in use f (units per thousand persons)
United States
USSR
Refrigerator production (units per thousand persons)
United States a
USSR
Refrigerators in use f (units per thousand persons)
United States
USSR
a The data do not necessarily represent food available for
consumption, because imports of foreign grain and exports
of domestically produced grain are not included.
b Excluding corn silage and forage but including sorghum
for grain.
a Including miscellaneous grains and pulses. Measured in
bunker weight, that is, gross output from the combine, which
18
22
20
20
22
20
19
17
20
4
15
22
13
14
14
15
15
15
158
170
194
238
273
269
266
262
260
13
59
141
189
205
205
205
205
205
19
25
26
21
25
23
22
19
23
2
7
17
22
23
22
22
21
21
281
295
336
340
352
352
352
349
NA
10
29
89
178
240
252
262
268
NA
includes excess moisture, unripe and damaged kernels, weed
seeds, and other trash. For comparison with US or other
country grain output, an average discount of 11 percent
should be applied.
d Data are on a carcass weight, bone-in basis.
a Data are for factory sales and include complete units
exported for assembly.
f As of the end of the year.
Data are understated because they are based on the
number of households with one or more units; thus, a
household with more than one is counted as having only one.
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6
Billion US $
Selected Countries: Oil Import Bill a
1965
1970
1973
1975
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
Developed Countries
United States b
2.1
2.3
7.0
23.8
57.5
74.0
74.8
53.4
47.7
Israel
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.6
1.4
2.1
2.0
1.9
1.6
Japan
1.3
2.7
6.7
20.8
37.8
57.6
58.3
51.0
45.5
Spain
0.2
0.4
0.9
3.5
6.7
11.1
11.2
9.8 e
8.7 e
European Community
France
0.9
1.6
3.3
9.3
16.3
26.8
24.9
22.0
18.1
Italy
0.6
1.2
2.4
7.3
12.0
20.4
22.2
18.7
17.3
Netherlands
0.2
0.3
0.5
1.6
4.5
6.6
5.6
4.4
3.9
United Kingdom
1.4
1.8
3.3
7.7
2.2
0.2
-5.7
-7.6
-10.7
West Germany
1.0
2.0
5.1
10.7
24.5
32.2
29.0
25.6
22.8
Less developed countries
Brazil
NA
0.2
0.7
2.7
7.0
9.5
9.5
8.7
6.6
India
NA
0.2
0.7
1.4
4.0
6.7
5.6
4.6
3.5
South Korea
NA
0.1
0.3
1.2
3.4
6.1
6.9
6.8
6.3
China (Taiwan)
NA
0.1
0.2
0.7
2.4
4.5
4.6
3.7
3.9
Philippines
NA
0.1
0.2
0.8
1.5
2.2
2.9
2.1
1.8
Thailand
NA
0.1
0.2
0.7
1.7
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.2
Colombia
NA
-0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6 b
Pakistan
NA
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.5
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.4 b
Hong Kong
NA
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.9
1.4
1.6
1.8
1.5
Chile
NA
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.8
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.6 b
Total cost of imported crude oil and petroleum products
(on a c.i.f. basis) less earnings of exports of these items (on an
f.o.b. basis).
b On an f.o.b. basis.
e Estimated.
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/07/27: CIA-RDP87M00539R000700940012-6