NSPG ON AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87B00342R000200280001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 11, 2009
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: March 21, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/11 : CIA-RDP87B00342R000200280001-5
OL GIEI
1. An NSPG has been scheduled for 1100 Tuesday, 26 March, to review
US policy, programs and strategy vis-a-vis Afghanistan. (A draft NSDD on
this subject has been circulated among PCG members; that will be the
subject of NSPG discussion). Also on Tuesday, at 1500, an NFIB is
scheduled to consider five estimates, two of which deal with Afghanistan:
--
"Soviet Problems, Prospects, and Options in Afghanistan in 1985"
(Ermarth).
--
"The Soviet Presence in Afghanistan:
Regional Powers and the US" (Fuller).
Implications for the
2.
I called the NSC this morning to advise them of the estimates
being considered at Tuesday's NFIB after the NSPG had already met (this
to make sure they didn't want to have tthie NSPG after the NFIB estimates
had been approved). I was advised that "Bud wanted to have the meeting
on Tuesday'and "that the PCG had received briefings on the subjects of
the estimates".
3. Today there were final coordinating sessions on both estimates.
Drafts are being sent out for final coordination late today/early
tomorrow.
4. Attached you will find current versions of the Key Judgments for
both papers (in the case of the Ermarth SNIE, the body of this report
will be put out as an IIM).
SIC WET
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/11: CIA-RDP87B00342R000200280001-5
SECRETI
Memo for the DCI and the DDCI
From: F. Ermarth
Subject: SNIE on Soviet Near-term Prospects in Afghanistan
In consultation with Bob and Herb, we've decided to go with a
slightly beefed up version of the key judgments of this
estimate as the SNIE (attached). We shall use the main body of
the report you have already seen as the analytic base for
coordinating the short SNIE, and proceed to coordinate the main
paper for issuance as an IIM.
This approach will a) speed the process to mesh with the
planned NSPG on 26 March -- although NFIB is scheduled to
approve the SNIE that day, we can get a coordinated draft to
the NSC earlier, b) put a very short paper with all the bottom
lines before consumers, while c) also producing a very good
assessment of the current state and near-future outlook of the
war.
Unless I hear otherwise from you before Monday, we'll proceed
on this basis.
FYI: From the start of this exercise, I've received excellent
support background
necessary to support judgments ab ture Mujahedin
effectiveness. Also, I've vetted? the language we
shall use in the text (see page 6 of the attached).
25X1
25X