DEVELOPMENT OF A FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING COLLECTION SYSTEM VULNERABILITIES DURING THE 1990'S (U)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87-01146R000200080038-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2006
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: October 31, 1980
• Content Type: MF

Approved For Release 2006/04/22 : CIA-RDP87-01146R00020008
Ti,, Director of Central Intelligence I
Resource Management Staff
STATI N1
MEMORANDUM FOR:
STATI NTL
Special Assistant to the DDCI
DCI/RM 80-0248
31 October 1980
FROM:
Director, Policy Guidance Staff
SUBJECT: Development of a Framework for Evaluating Collection-
System Vulnerabilities during the 1990s (U)
You have been designated as the point of contact for your agency
for the first phase of the possible implementation of a Community-wide
assessment of the collection environment in the 1990's and likely
vulnerabilities to our present and programmed collection system when
operating in this projected environment.
This first phase consists of the development of a methodology for
conducting the assessment and estimate of the time and resources
necessary to conduct this assessment should the DCI approve the
methodology.
The second phase would be the completion of the assessment. Upon
completion of this phase, the results would be forwarded to the Program
Managers for consideration of any potential vulnerabilities and the
implications these may have to their present programs. Where
vulnerabilities have been identified, Program Managers would be
invited to propose investment "hedges" against the loss of given
collection systems.
Such "hedges" might be investment in R&D to expand our technical
and analytical capabilities, an investment in system redundancies,
the consideration of alternate means of collection, and the development
of surge capacity of alternate systems to respond to the loss or
degradation of primary collection systems.
Upon completion of this review by Program Managers and the develop-
ment of their recommendations, the results would be foniarded to the DCI
for such decisions as he felt to be appropriate.
The approach and intent of this effort is easy to define. The
complexity is to develop an outline or methodology which provides a
coherent and comprehensive assessment of the collection environment
in the proposed time frame. The attached outline is a first step
in this direction. it is intended only as a "strawman."
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Since this effort depends upon the forecasting of a world, technically
and politically, some 15 years hence it will be unavoidably speculative in
nature; more so in perhaps the areas of human collection activities than
,,in technical collection systems. It is important for all associated with
this effort to understand this fact from the outset.
The value of this assessment will be in raising to the senior
executives of the Community the possibility and, to the extent that it
can be done-, the likelihood of certain changes in the collection environment
which would limit our collection capabilities. By presenting this information
in a coherent and comprehensive fashion to these individuals, consideration
can be given to prudent steps that can be taken to compensate for possible
future losses in collection capability. This assessment will also require
program managers to consider the state of long range planning within
their own agencies.
In the implementation of this effort the office has no intent to
commission studies on these issues by the agencies, though studies may be
initiated by an agency if it so desires. What is expected is a thorough
consideration of the questions contained in the outline by knowledgeable
people and a best judgment made with a brief explanation of the reasons for
the judgment. In view of the inherent speculative nature of forecasting
events in a rapidly changing world such judgments made by knowledgeable
individuals are as likely to be as accurate as those made as a consequence
of extensive studies.
It is hoped that the above explains the context and purpose of this
effort.
What I need from your agency is:
a. Suggestions_for improving the attached outline.
b. An estimate of the time and resources necessary by your
agency to complete the effort if approved.
I will contact each of you personally to answer any questions and to
provide such amplification of this effort as you desire. Upon receipt of
your replies, a draft memorandum for the DCI containing the revised
methodology and an estimate of the resources necessary to complete the effort
will be sent to you for final comment and coordination. Your STAT
requested no later than 21 November. My telephone number is
Attachment
Draft Outline
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 STAT Approved For Release 2006/04/22 : CIA-RDP87-01146R000200080038-3
Approved For Release 2006/04/22 : CIA-RDP87-01146R000200080038-3