INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION REPORT #59

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000808260001-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 23, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 16, 2012
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: December 18, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

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Washington. D. C. 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
International Financial Situation Report #59
18 December 1986
Summary
Brazil is encountering serious financial difficulties. Soaring domestic demand for goods has
lowered exports, foreign investment is at a 15-year low, and capital flight has accelerated,
according to US Embassy. The Sarney administration has expressed deep concern about this
situation particularly about Brazil's dwindling cash reserves -
(down from $7.8 billion early in the year to as low as $3-4 billion at the 25X1
beginning of December. Brazil is working toward overcoming its difficulties by seeking improved
relations with Paris Club official creditors. Even after obtaining a Paris Club reschedulin we
believe Brazil's financial squeeze will not ease appreciably for several months.
n other developments: 25X1
o Mexico's commercial bankers have received commitments totaling 93 percent of the
$7.7 billion new money package.
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o Argentina is continuing negotiations with the IMF for a $1.55 billion combined standby
arrangement/compensatory financing facility. We expect them to reach an
agreement by early next year.
o Market response to the Soviet Vneshtorgbank's latest $300 million syndicated loan is
sluggish, possibly resulting in embarrassment for the Soviets and indicating tha25X1
future loans will have to be priced more attractively.
o Indonesia may be forced to "readjust" its debt payments early next year
Foreign bankers are concerned by
unwillingness to -begin negotiations for a $3-4 billion IMF standby program.
Jakarta's 25X1
o venue rgypt continues intorma! talks with the Paris Club and the IMF, commercial
credit continues to contract and the Central Bank is low on cash reserves.
NOTE: REPORT #60 WILL BE PUBLISHED ON 15 JANUARY 1987
This situation report was prepared by analysts of the Intelligence Directorate. Comments are
welcome and may dressed to the Situation Report Coordinator
GI M 86-20287C
Cop)
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KEY ISSUE
Brazil: Deteriorating Financial Position
A sharp decline in Brazil's trade surplus from a monthly average of $1 billion during
January-September to only slightly over $200 million in October and November threatens
to draw the country into its first foreign exchange crisis since 1983. Exports receipts
have slumped badly because, according to the US Embassy, soaring domestic demand has
been diverting consumer goods from export markets and rumors of a major devaluation
also have caused exporters to withhold sales. Moreover, foreign investment is at a 15-
year low, new borrowing has virtually stopped, and capital flight has accelerated,
according to the US Embassy in Brasilia. The Sarney administration has expressed deeD
concern about Brazil's dwindling cash reserves - 75X1
down from $7.8 billion early in the year to as low as $3-4 billion at the 25X1
beginning of December. 25X1
So far, the government has taken only limited steps to shore up its payments
position. It implemented substantial price adjustments on 21 November to dampen
domestic demand but strong public protests, notably the 12 December general strike,
make important follow-up measures unlikely within the next several weeks. Although
Brasilia has instituted daily mini-devaluations of the Cruzado to boost exports, the US
Embassy reports that the private sector is not satisfied and continues to wait for a much
larger devaluation. The government has temporarily suspended import licenses through
administrative delays and government forei exchange transactions under the Central
Ban Brasilia expects to continue these 25X1
practices until exports rebound.
Brazil also is working toward overcoming its debt difficulties by seeking improved
relations with Paris Club official creditors.
A successful resolution of the
Paris Club issue would pave the way for a reopening of OECD government export credits
necessary to ease cash stringencies. It would also pave the way for resumption of
Despite reconciliation with official creditors, we believe that Brazil's financial
squeeze will not ease appreciably for several months.
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Brazil's financial problems and the prospect of possible arrearages almost certainly
will make negotiations early next year with creditor banks for a multiyear debt
rescheduling agreement more difficult and contentious.
the Sarney administration probably will reel compelled by domestic
political pressures to demand lower interest spreads and better repayment terms than
those recently won by Mexico because Brazil has a better economic performance and
debt repayment record. Indeed, the press reported that Finance Minister Funaro stressed
in a recent address in New York that Brazil henceforth will have to service its debt at
much lower cost, signaling a tougher Brazilian negotiating stand.
We believe that an unyielding hardline
stance by bankers has the potential to erupt into outright confrontation, leading the
Brazilians to opt for a moratorium on debt repayments next year.
DEVELOPMENTS IN MAJOR COUNTRIES
Mexico
Commitments from international bankers so far represent 93 percent of the $7.7
billion commercial loan package and Mexico City expects it will take until January to
complete the deal.
Mexico's economic prospects.
Mexican negotiators expect to reach a preliminary agreement soon with
international bankers on terms for restructuring $11.7 billion in private-sector debt
covered by the government foreign exchange risk program (FICORCA). Without the
rescheduling, a number of firms included in the plan probably could not continue making
principal repayments presently set to rise from $200 million this year to $3 billion in
1987.
Most of the major banks probably will agree to rescheduling payments, but
smaller banks may decide to write off loans or swap debt for equity. Bankers are likely
to resist Mexican proposals requiring them to lend repayments to private enterprises or
deposit the funds in an account at the Bank of Mexico given their gloomy assessment of
Argentina
Negotiations continue between Argentina and the IMF for a $1.55 billion combined
standby arrangement/compensatory financing facility. IMF
officials are concerned about a large public-sector wage hike, the declining trade
balance, and Buenos Aires' insistence on increased public investment and continued GDP
growth to boost the ruling Radical party's prospects for winning the November 1987
gubernatorial and congressional elections. The gap between the parallel and official
exchange rates widened 5.6 percent one day last week to more than 30 percent, in part
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because of market anxiety over the discussions, according to the US Embassy.
Negotiators are in frequent contact, however, and we expect them to reach an
agreement by early next year. President Alfonsin's recently unveiled public-sector
reform initiatives almost surely were designed to demonstrate to the IMF that Argentina
is ready to address some of the underlying causes of its fiscal deficit. The reform
includes the creation of a holding company for major state-owned enterprises-headed by
a senior private-sector executive-to speed the introduction of efficiency-enhancing
measures, and a cutback in executive-branch employment through a voluntary retirement
program.
Argentine and Dutch negotiators have reached a preliminary agreement on
resolving a bilateral debt associated with a Dutch-built pipeline, according to the US
Embassy. Under the agreement, the Dutch company Cogasco will transfer ownership of
the pipeline to the Argentine state gas company. In return, Buenos Aires will cancel
Cogasco's debt and compensate the company for future earnings through the balance of
the original contract period. The Dutch will finance the bulk of the $1.1 billion package
deal, the US Embassy reports. An agreement would clear a longstandine stumbingblock
to Paris Club rescheduling of Argentine 1986-87 bilateral debt.
Latin America
In Latin America, Venezuela and its creditor banks are grappling with how to
reschedule the debtor's private-sector debts, while Ecuador's IMF disbursement has been
delayed, but Panama and the World Bank have reached a compromise, making a $50
million disbursement possible this year.
Venezuela
President Lusinchi's efforts to achieve consensus before making difficult economic
policy decisions helped delay his promised "turn of the rudder" by one month. When he
announced his economic adjustments on 6 December, he tacitly admitted that his
government still had not arrived at a comprehensive set of measures. The adjustments so
far, including a major devaluation, pave the way for tighter foreign exchange controls.
Lusinchi also announced minor financial incentives for certain sectors of basic industry.
To make the economic package palatable, he retained price controls on basic consumer
goods and granted a 25-percent increase in the minimum wage to organized labor.~ 25X1
The new plan to handle the private-sector debt calls for $5.5 billion of the $7.8
billion private-sector debt to be repaid within eight and a half years.
Although the new private-sector debt scheme has been imposed rather than
negotiated with foreign creditors, the US Embassy reports representatives of US banks in
Caracas think the scheme will be acceptable to most foreign creditors. Local
businessmen, however, have reacted negatively to the scheme. According to press and
Embassy reports, they fear that the increased costs will bankrupt some companies. In
addition, they, anticipate debt servicing disruptions and uncertainty in the short term.
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Ecuador
The IMF has delayed disbursement of an $18 million tranche to Ecuador, thus
adding to current economic concerns caused by low oil revenues. According to US
Embassy reporting, Ecuador has failed to meet its standby targets on international
reserves and domestic credit, and has increased government spending to twice the level
specified in the August agreement. The increase in government expenditures will raise
the public-sector deficit to 5 percent of the GDP this year, according to IMF estimates,
substantially over the target of 2.5 percent. Government officials have been meeting
this month with IMF representatives to discuss target revisions that will allow
disbursement of funds under the accord, but a rescheduling is unlikely before the end of
1986, according to the US Embassy. 25X1
Meanwhile, Ecuador has announced plans to seek a rescheduling of $5 billion in
foreign commercial bank debt early next year, in response to growing external
obligations. In addition, the 25X1
Central Bank as approved debt-equity swaps as a mechanism to reduce as much as $1.3
billion in private-sector foreign debt assumed by the government in 1983. According to
US Embassy reporting, the debt-equity swaps have the advantage of reducing Ecuador's
debt service at no cost to the government and may facilitate privatization of state
enterprises. 25X1
Panama
The World Bank and Panama have reached a compromise that allows a disbursement
of half of the $100 million second structural adjustment loan (SAL), even though the
reform of the politically sensitive social security reform system will not be passed this
year. According to the US Embassy, the World Bank is pleased with the progress Panama
made earlier this year on economic adjustments, and has agreed to disburse the $50
million first tranche based largely on Panama's demonstration of "good will" to move
ahead on social security reforms. But the expected prompt cabinet approval of the
legislation, unveiled 25 November, was delayed when the major political parties and the
social security board of directors rejected the package outright. These groups - as well
as Defense Chief Noriega - apparently have become concerned the prospect of heavy
criticism from business, professional, and labor groups,
USSR
Following its October market entry, final syndication of Vneshtorgbank's $300
million loan was announced, with almost exclusively European banks participating
According to US Embassy reporting, Western bankers have indicated
that Banque Nationale de Paris is having trouble selling down the loan reflecting
extremely low interest rate spread of 0.125 of a percentage point above LIBOR and the
current saturation of the secondary market. Although these problems are of a technical
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nature, the reluctance of banks to participate could be embarassin for the Soviets and
may mean that future loans will have to be priced more attractively
In the future, the Soviet Union can be expected to broaden the scope of financial
instruments it employs. By diversifying its sources and methods of borrowing, Moscow
can expect to gain flexibility and leverage in international markets and reduce the costs
of borrowin .
/ To venture into the bond or
instrument market, however, Moscow must be willing to forego control over ownership of
its obligations - something it has not been willing to do in the past. Moreover, the
Soviets will need to develop the market sophistication necessary to trade successfully in
Among Asian countries, Indonesia may be forced to "readjust" its debt payments
early next year, Malaysia's banking system is feared to be moving toward insolvency, and
the Philippines is scheduled to resume negotiations with commercial banks in January.
Indonesia
While the government publicly denys rumors that Jakarta will reschedule its
external debt Indonesia may be forced to
"readjust" its ebt Filter the first quarter 1987
Meanwhile, Indonesia will draw down another $1 billion on existing commercial lines of
credit, dip into its $10 billion in foreign reserves, and seek $2 billion or more from the
World Bank and the Japanese Exim Bank to meet its 1987 net financing requirements -
estimated at $4 billion by one international bank. The Indonesians may also seek a
compensatory financing facility from the IMF
Nevertheless, foreign creditors are concerned by Jakarta's reluctance to be in
negotiations for a $3-4 billion IMF standby program.
The market for Indonesian debt is growing rapidly as Western
banks become increasingly concerned about Jakarta's financial outlook. Loans currently
being swapped for 83-85 cents on the dollar, for example, could soon be trading at 70-75
cents per dollar according to a reliable source.
Malaysia
Malaysia's foreign bank creditors believe that without swift government
intervention, a number of major Malaysian banks could become insolvent by mid-1987.
By the end of the first quarter 1987, for example,
no principal or interest will have been paid in 18 months on over 25 percent of
Malaysian bank loans. These loans were made primarily to exporting companies, which
have been hard hit by low oil and other commodity prices.
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the government does not appear serious in its efforts to
reduce the government budget deficit and to devalue the ringgit. Instead, Mahathir's
financial advisors appear to be hoping for a rebound in commodity prices to bolster the
economy in 1987. For their part, many international banks - which expect export
revenues to decline 5 to 10 percent in 1987 - may consider decreasing their loan
exposure next year. On the other hand, Japanese banks probably will remain involved in
Malaysia as part of their loan efforts in the Pacific rim, despite their concern over the
Philippines
The Philippines' bank advisory committee (BAC) met on 11 December to hammer
out an agreed position. The BAC members now believe they have narrowed their
differences on a negotiating stance sufficiently to resume talks with Philippine
officials. According to press reports, the BAC members have granted Manila a three-
month moratorium on debts that mature starting 1 January, and agreed to extend the $3
billion revolving trade facility - originally due to expire at the end of the year - for six
months. In what Philippine officials view as a significant step, the moratorium contains
a clause stipulating that the final terms will be retroactive to 1 January 1987. Formal
negotiations with Philippine officials could begin in early January. The Philippines is also
scheduled to begin negotiations with its Paris Club creditors in January.
In the Middle East, Egypt continues informal talks with the Paris Club and the IMF
and Morocco's $1.5 billion rescheduling package is nearly complete. 25X1
Egypt
Egyptian officials appear satisfied with the support they received from key IMF
executive directors at a 4 December Fund discussion of the country's economic reform
program, according to US Embassy reports. Cairo may be 25X1
underestimating the distance that remains before Fund approval of a standby
arrangement, however. Cairo believes that the support voiced at the meeting indicated
IMF acceptance of its reform measures as the most that is politically possible for Egypt,
setting the stage for speedy Fund agreement on a standby arrangement. Critical
elements of the standby negotiations - including agreement on economic performance
criteria - are still ahead, however, and the details of exchange rate unification and
interest rate hikes, each a potential sticking point, remain to be worked out. Meanwhile,
informal talks on Cairo's problems continue with a Paris Club discussion with IMF
officials tomorrow of Egypt's financial situation, and a meeting of key IMF Executive
Directors will take up the subject next week. 25X1
Meanwhile, US Embassy contacts report the Egyptian central 25X1
bank is essentially broke, and the Fund believes that Cairo - prior to the Kuwaiti aid -
had only enough cash available to fund critical imports and debt payments through
March. Commercial credit is continuing to contract, according to the US Embassy 25X1
At the same time,
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Middle East
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aiui'ug,i curu.caii cvU11Lriub- eApurl creuit agencies oiriciaiiy remain on cover for Egypt,
our Embassy reports almost all of them have gone off cover unofficially.
Morocco
Morocco and its commercial bank advisory committee reached agreement in
rinci le last week on a $1.5 billion debt rescheduling package.
both sides settled on a rate of
1.19 points above LIBOR, for most of the debts, but Rabat will pay 1.63 points above
LIBOR on debts that had been rescheduled once before. The rescheduling terms will now
be telexed to all of Morocco's bank creditors for approval. With agreement in principle
reached on the bank rescheduling, the IMF this week approved a $275 million standby
Africa
Nigeria
The IMF last week approved in principle for 30 days a $790 million standby
agreement for Nigeria, according to US officials. President Babangida has claimed,
however, that Lagos will not actually draw the money available under the standby
because of domestic opposition. Final approval remains pending until a "critical mass" of
Nigeria's commercial lenders - probably 90 percent - agree to participate in the $4
billion debt rescheduling and $320 million new money package approved to by the London
Club steering committee last month. More than half of the banks reportedly have signed
on already, but the process may not conclude before yearend. The US Embassy reports
that the Paris Club of official creditors concluded a debt rescheduling this week, which
will become effective upon final approval of the IMF accord. Meanwhile, the World Bank
last month provided its first disbursement from a $450 million loan to help fund Nigeria's
second-tier foreign exchange market.
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FINANCIAL BRIEFS
An African Development Bank (AFDB) committee reached agreement on terms and
conditions for a 200 percent ($9 billion) fourth general capital increase (GCI) covering
the period 1987-91... to deal with the chronic problem of subscription arrears, voting
power will- now be tied to paid-in capital... AFDB executive board will consider the GCI
Thirty-one donor countries agreed to a $12.4 billion replenishment of the
International Development Association. . . Japan's shareholding in World Bank will
increase by 1.5 percent; Italy and the Netherlands by 0.32 percent as part of the
agreement. . . sub-Saharan Africa slated to receive 45 to 50 percent of future IDA
Paris Club official creditors scheduled to meet during week of 19 January. .
countries tentatively on agenda include Zambia, Morocco, Gabon, the Philippines, and
Bolivia has fully complied with the targets of its IMF standby agreement. . . its
fiscal deficit this year will probably be 3.7 percent of GDP, compared with 14 percent in
1985. . . Fund officials predict that Bolivia will qualify for a $60 million compensatory
financing facility in 1987 in addition to the $40 million it is already scheduled to receive
Colombia seeking $400 million in rural development loans from World Bank to
undercut insurgency. . . recently received $171 million from World Bank for electric
power system, wants additional $800 million from Inter-American Development Bank and
commercial banks for same project.
Cuba missed 30 November deadline for payments due under 1986 Paris Club
agreement. . . not likely to pay soon. . . banks again refused Havana's request for $350
million to settle overdue short-term commercial debts, countering with an offer of about
$65 million to cover interest due in 1986.
World Bank and IMF Boards agreed that Dominica would be the test case for the
new joint Structural Adjustment Facility. . . approved the first year of the three-year
program in late November. . . makes nearly $1 million of a total $2.25 million loan
available for immediate disbursement.
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devaluation, government spending.
Jamaican Prime Minister Seaga and IMF Managing Director de Larosiere reportedly
have reached an agreement in principle on standby program. . . Fund staff currently
trying to negotiate exact program details. . . stumbling blocks remain arrears, calls for
bureaucracy.
Nicaragua establishing a national foreign trade bank... responding to complaints of
trading partners that Central Bank actions make it difficult to conduct normal trading
relations. . . hope to increase exports to Western Europe by streamlining financial
January, not fast enough to compensate for inflation.
Peru has tinkered with exchange rates to counter falling reserves and weak exports
.. more export and import transactions shifted from official rate to a 25 percent higher
financial rate. . . both exchange rates will be devalued 2.2 percent monthly beginning in
Europe
Hungary arranging $200 million loan to help cover current account deficit of $1
billion expected for 1986... priced at 0.25 of a percentage point over LIBOR for 8 years.
. Japanese appetite for Hungarian paper may have bid down price... US banks not
likely to show much interest because of Hungary's worsening external payments
banks unlikely to offer new money due to poor economic prospects.
The Paris Club may meet with Polish officials this week if Poland comes up with
about $300 million in payment arrears... Warsaw claims payment difficulties because of
expected 1986 trade surplus of only about $1 billion-$500 million less than planned.. .
Government of Brunei has closed the National Bank of Brunei and arrested bank
chairman Khoo. government alleges 90 percent of loans went to Khoo's family
interests
Some Zambian politicians blaming IMF for riots last week. . . 15 killed in unrest
following doubling of staple food prices recommended by the IMF, IBRD, and AID. .
President Kaunda retracted prices hikes reluctantly, remains in favor of economic
reform, according to US Embassy. . . disbursements from Lusaka's $275 million Fund
standby have been halted since July because of missed targets and arrears to the Fund.
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SUBJDCT: International Financial Situation Report #59I 18 December 1986
Copy No. 1 Sec. James Baker Treasury
2 R. G. Darman
3 James W. Conrow
4 Robert Cornell
5 Thomas J. Berger
6 Charles Schotta
7 James A. Griffin
8 Doug Mulholland
9 Robert M. Kinmit
10 David Mulford
11 Sec. George Shultz State
12 John C. Whitehead
13 Morton I. Abramowitz
14 Jerane H. Kahan
15 Michael Armacost
16 Ralph Lindstrom
17 W. Allen Wallis
18 Elliot Abrams
19 Rozanne Ridgway
20 Douglas McMinn
21 Chester Crocker
22 Gaston Sigur
23 Richard Murphy
24 Harry Gilmore
25 Byron Jackson Camlerce
26 S. Bruce Snart
27
28
29 Steve Farrar
30 Stephen Danzansky
NSC
it
31 Randall Fort PFIAB
32 Leo Cherne PFIAB
33 David Tarbell OSD (ISA)
34 DCI
35 ExDir
36 SA/DDCI
37 DDI
38 MIDI
39 Ch/PES/DDI
40 NIO Economics
41 ADD/NIC AG
42 IIDO
43 Ch/DDO/EPDS
45 Ch/MD/AF
46 Ch/DDO/EA
47 Ch/DDO/EUR
48 Ch/DDO/LA
49 Ch/DOO/NE
50 Ch/DDO/SE
51 D/ALA
52 Ch/ALA/SAD
53 D/OEA
54 D/EURA
55 Ch/EURA/EE/EW
56 D/SOVA
57 D/NESA
58 DD/OGI, D/OGI
59 Ch/OGI/SRD
60 Ch /OGI /FS IC
61 Ch/OGI/EC D
62-63 Ch/OGI/ECD/FI
64
65 CPAS/ISS/SA/DA
66 Ch /OGI /Pub
OGI /CA
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67-69 OGI/Pub
70-75 CPAS/IM^/CB .k,,,,n
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1 - H. Robert Heller, Federal Reserve
Board
1 - Edwin Truman, Federal Reserve Boar25X1
1 - David Roberts, Federal Reserve,
New York
1 - Leo Cherne, PFIAB, New York
1 - E. Gerald Corrigan, President,
Federal Reserve Bank, New York
1 - John Bohn, Chairman, ExIm Bank
2 - Doug Mulholland, Treasury
1 - Ambassador Richard McCormack, State
1 - Martin A. Wenick, State
1 - Nicholas Burakow, State
1 - Peter W. Rodman, State
5 - Byron Jackson, Ccnmerce
1 - Warren E. Farb, Commerce
1 - DIA
1 - Ron Silverman, QVi6
1 - Beryl Sprinkel, CEA
1 - Eugene McAllister, EPC
1 - Ch/EC D
1- Ch /BCD/ IF
1 - Ch/ECD/T
1 - Ch/ECD/DI
1 - Ch/BCD/ES
1 - Ch/ISID/FI
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