SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR THE PHILIPPINES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000707620001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 66
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 17, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 1, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

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FIL
ANALYTIC METHODS
Directorate of Intelligence
Central Intelligence Agency
DATE
DOC NO 9-aoao 8L
O I R
P $ PD
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This document is a research paper by the Analytic Methods Branch of the
Directorate of Intelligence of the Central Intelligence Agency. As such, the
views and conclusions contained herein are those of the research staff and
should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official position,
either expressed or implied, of the Central Intelligence Agency.
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Directorate of Intelligence
Central Intelligence Agency
April 1986
Prepared for
Philippine Task Force
and
Office of East Asian Analysis
ASGM 86-20008L
Report No. 281
Copy No.
Comments are welcome and may be
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 - 1
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This document is a research paper by the Analytic Methods Branch of the
Directorate of Intelligence of the Central Intelligence Agency. As such, the
views and conclusions contained herein are those of the research staff and
should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official position,
either expressed or implied, of the Central Intelligence Agency.
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SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
INDICATORS FOR THE PHILIPPINES
The statistical information about the Philippines
presented in this report depicts important aspects of the
current social and economic situation and displays under-
lying historical trends. There are four major categories
of information: social and demographic issues, the econo-
my, subjective indicators of governmental stability
i3 y
examining these indicators, either individually or in
combination, analysts can identify. the forces underlying
the current changes in the Philippines. Furthermore,
these data will assist in projecting future developments
in that country.
The data presented here indicate that:
The Philippines will experience a substantial rise
in population by the end of the century, due main-
ly to a higher birth rate since World War II. If
current demographic trends persist, the influx of
new people into the work force will far exceed the
economy's capacity to employ new workers, exacer-
bating the already high unemployment rate.
The economy will be Aquino's major problem for the
foreseeable future. With massive foreign debt, a
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decline in the standard of living since 1981, a
stagnant agricultural sector, and a distribution
of wealth favoring only the privileged few, the
new Aquino government is inheriting a set of
challenging problems. To sustain economic growth,
the Philippines must attract considerable
investments from outside.
A set of subjective indicators provides a means of
assessing instability in several countries. The
indicators for the Philippines correctly identi-
fied some of the key factors in the recent change
of government, but the indicator system lacks a
method for attaching greater importance to these
specific factors. Consequently, the overall im-
pression given by the indicators in late 1985 was
that Marcos would continue to hold power, at least
in the short run.
Analytic Methods Branch
Analytic Support Group
April 1986
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Report No. 281
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"Great floods have flown from simple sources."
- William Shakespeare
All's Well That Ends Well
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PAGE
I.
INTRODUCTION
1
II.
SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC
ISSUES
4
POPULATION AND THE FAMILY
4
EDUCATION
LEISURE ACTIVITIES
III. THE ECONOMY
IV. INDICATORS OF POLITICAL INSTABILITY
DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA
UTILITY OF THE INDICATOR SYSTEM
APPENDIX A: TABULAR INFORMATION ON SOCIAL AND
DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES
APPENDIX C: TABULAR INFORMATION ON INDICATORS OF
POLITICAL INSTABILITY
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LIST OF TABLES
PAGE
25
TABLE A-1.
TABLE A-2.
TABLE A-3.
TABLE A-4.
TABLE A-5.
TABLE A-6.
TABLE A-7.
TABLE B-1.
TABLE B-2.
TABLE B-3.
PHILIPPINE POPULATION: TOTAL POPULATION 4U
AND BREAKDOWN BY SEX, 1960-2000
PHILIPPINE POPULATION BY AGE GROUP, 41
1960-2000
POPULATION, BIRTHS, DEATHS, DEATHS 42
UNDER 1 YEAR, AND MATERNAL DEATHS
IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1920-83
NUMBER OF MARRIAGES BY TYPE OF CEREMONY 43
IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1968-82
PERCENT OF POPULATION IN THE PHILIPPINES 43
WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS OF EDUCATION,
1980-87
CULTURE AND SPORTS AS.A PERCENTAGE OF 44
THE NATIONAL BUDGET IN THE PHILIPPINES,
1952-84
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN THE 47
PHILIPPINES, 1946-84
PHILIPPINE CONSUMER PRICE INDICES (CPI), 48
1970-85
ACQUISITION OF NEW CAPITAL IN THE
PHILIPPINES, 1955-84
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LIST OF TABLES
(Continued)
TABLE B-6. STRIKES AND WORKERS INVOLVED IN THE
PHILIPPINES, 1966-81
TABLE B-7. STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE IN THE
PHILIPPINES, 1965-84
TABLE B-9. POVERTY AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH 53
IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1957-75
TABLE B-10. PHILIPPINE PER CAPITA PERSONAL
CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, 1950-84
TABLE B-11. AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT IN THE PHILIPPINES, 55
1950-84
TABLE C-1. INSTABILITY INDICATORS FOR THE
PHILIPPINES
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FIGURE 1.
PHILIPPINE POPULATION: TOTAL POPULATION,
MALES, AND FEMALES, 1960-2000
5
FIGURE 2.
PHILIPPINE POPULATION BY AGE GROUP,
6
1960-2000
FIGURE 3.
REGION BOUNDARIES IN THE PHILIPPINES
8
FIGURE 4.
LIVE BIRTHS AND TOTAL DEATHS IN THE
PHILIPPINES, 1920-83
9
FIGURE 5.
DEATHS UNDER 1 YEAR AND MATERNAL DEATHS
IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1925-83
9
FIGURE 6.
NUMBER OF MARRIAGES BY TYPE OF CEREMONY
IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1977-82
10
FIGURE 7.
LEVEL OF EDUCATION IN THE PHILIPPINES,
10
1980-87
FIGURE 8.
CULTURE AND SPORTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF
THE NATIONAL BUDGET IN THE PHILIPPINES,
12
1952-84
FIGURE 10.
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN THE
PHILIPPINES, 1946-84
14
FIGURE 11.
PHILIPPINE CONSUMER PRICE INDICES,
14
1970-85
FIGURE 12.
GROWTH IN CAPITAL IN THE PHILIPPINES,
16
1955-84
FIGURE 13.
PHILIPPINE FOREIGN DEBT (BILLIONS OF
US DOLLARS)
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LIST OF FIGURES
(Continued)
PAGE
FIGURE 14. PHILIPPINE IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 18
FIGURE 15. NUMBER OF STRIKES AND WORKERS INVOLVED 18
IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1966-81
FIGURE 16. WAGES FOR UNSKILLED WORKERS IN 20
METROPOLITAN MANILA, 1971-84
FIGURE 17. DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN THE 21
PHILIPPINES
FIGURE 18. PHILIPPINE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION 22
EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA, 1950-84
FIGURE 19. AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT IN THE PHILIPPINES, 22
1950-84
FIGURE 20. INSTABILITY INDICATORS FOR THE
PHILIPPINES
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I. INTRODUCTION
Hari Seldon, the great mathematician of Isaac Asimov's
Foundation, believed that the future of societies could be
predicted accurately by applying the statistical axioms of
psycho-history. Although statistical methods in the so-
cial sciences are still far from achieving the level of
sophistication envisioned by Dr. Seldon, analysis of care-
fully selected indicators can be extremely revealing. By
studying data on the social and economic conditions in the
Philippines, it is possible to discern the major forces
for change and gain some appreciation for the future di-
rection of the country.
The Philippines has experienced a major political
upheaval in the past few months, but the pressures tor
change which played an important role in ending the Marcos
era had been building for a long time. A variety of
factors, including a deteriorating economy and popular
disillusionment with the Marcos_ regime, ushered Aquino
into power. The statistical information presented here
depicts the major social and economic trends which
underlie these factors.
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This study focuses on fundamental demographic, social,
and economic issues. Consideration of the insurgency and
related military problems is reserved for a separate
study. Four major categories of data are explored: so-
cial and demographic issues, the economy, subjective indi-
cators of governmental stability,
The information presented
under each cateogory is in three parts: text, figures, and
tables. For ease of use, all data tables are presented in
the four appendices in the order in which they appear in
the text.
Caution should be used in drawing inferences from a
cursory examination of the data in this report. The indi-
cators point out serious social and economic problems in
the Philippines, suggesting that Aquino faces major chal-
lenges if she is to improve the lot of the average
Filipino. However, these indicators do not reveal the
underlying causes or specify appropriate solutions to
these problems. Descriptive statistics, such as those
presented here, invite the reader to formulate plausible
explanations of how a condition has evolved; but all such
inferences must be compared with qualitative information.
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The data used in this report are of uneven quality, in
part because some kinds of information are more difficult
to collect or to quantify than other kinds and in part
because data-collection operations do not always adhere to
uniform standards. All data, however collected, are
subject to some risk of inaccuracy or error. Even those
events for which reporting is mandatory (such as births,
deaths, and. marriages) may not be fully or accurately
reported.
However, it should be remembered that all statisti-
cal data, however obtained, are approximations that con-
tain some degree of uncertainty.
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II. SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES
POPULATION AND THE FAMILY
In examining the quality of life and areas of social
concern, it is important to, provide a framework for the
analysis of specific indicators by inspecting certain
background information. Two essential areas of interest
in this regard are the size, composition, and distribution
of the population of the Philippines,, and. the factors
which lead to change in these components, namely
fertility, mortality, and migration.
Despite government efforts to limit the family size,
the population growth rate continues to be a concern. The
total population size, along with breakdowns for males and
females (figure 1, table A-1) indicate that the total
Philippine population will grow to over 80 million people
by the year 2000, with the numbers of men and women
remaining almost equal. A breakdown by age group (figure
2, table A-2) shows a slightly decreasing trend in.the two
lowest age groups, 0-4 and 5-9, with gradual increasing in
most other age categories. The share of population.in the
15-24 age group is used by some analysts as a measure of
potential social instability. On a regional basis (figure
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FIGURE 1. PHILIPPINE POPULATION: TOTAL POPULATION,
MALES, AND FEMALES, 1960-2000
TOTAL POPULATION
5 2 i I OX ~ '6X 655:: NO
1960
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
30,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
1980 1985
YEAR
MALES
10,000
30,0001
20.000
80,000
70,000
60.000-
5o.000-a
40.000~
1980
YEAR
FEMALES
10,000
801000-
70,000-
601000-
501000-
40,0001
30.000
20,000
1980
YEAR
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 FIGURE 2. PHILIPPINE POPULATION BY AGE GROUP, 1960-2000
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!
ri
i%
dll~ 01`540
N4 9
v~~4
v4?
fii44(~~4
144:.'4
g44~~S
9
$
~$
1q
N% ~0
NqNg
Legend
? ABOVE 60
? 55-59
U 50-54
J 45-49
? 40-44
? 35-39
1230-34
? 25-29
O 20-24
? 15-19
10-14
5-9
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3), the fastest population growth is taking place on
Mindanao and in Manila.
Deaths, deaths under one year of age, and maternal
deaths (figures 4-5, table A-3) show a fairly constant
rate since 1920, with a birth rate that has tripled in
that time span.
The total number of marriages may be indicative of the
stability of the family unit. The actual number of mar-
riages per year in the Philippines (figure 6, table A-4)
increased by almost 30,000 between 1977 and 1982. An
increasing number of these marriages were performed in
civil rather than religious ceremonies.
The education system is a major instrument for
transmitting knowledge and culture from one generation to
the next. It provides the foundation from which the tech-
nology to sustain and improve the quality of life is de-
veloped and enhanced.
Education in the Philippines, at least up to the lat-
ter part of the 19th century, was largely elitist and
colonial. With a few exceptions, the schools at that time
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Figure 3
Region Boundaries in the Philippines
Philippine
Sea
.; ~ehtra~'` ~, 4
--Bohol
Weer
Viseya
0 150 Kilometers
0 150 Miles
' /Northern
Mino'gna4
~_ ~IVlind~nad ,
Centrai I
Mindanao ; Southern
(Mindanao
Indonesia
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FIGURE 4. LIVE BIRTHS AND TOTAL DEATHS IN
THE PHILIPPINES, 1920-83
1,500,0001
m 1,000,000-
L d
m
m
Z
Legend
BIRTHS
DEATHS
O
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
YEAR
FIGURE 5. DEATHS UNDER 1 YEAR AND MATERNAL DEATHS
IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1925-83
Legend
DEATHS UNDER 1 YEAR
MATERNAL DEATHS
0
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
YEAR
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W 200.000 ~
m
z
150.000
FIGURE 6. NUMBER OF MARRIAGES BY TYPE OF
CEREMONY IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1977-82
Legend
REUGIOUS
100.000
-t
1982
YEAR
FIGURE 7. LEVEL OF EDUCATION IN THE PHILIPPINES,
1980-87
Legend
ELEMENTARY
SECONDARY
TERTIARY __
rREDICTEQ,ELEYEpTAR,
PREDICTED SECONDARY
RP EDICTED TERTIARY
980~8r981~8? 98283 8384 ~r~BS 8S~86 8682 8~-88
YEAR
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admitted only the sons of Spanish insulares and local
illustrados.
The present public school system (figure 7, table A-5)
is actually a heritage from the early years of the
American regime in the Philippines which made education
accessible to wider segments of the population. In 1985,
approximately 93 percent of the primary school age
children were enrolled in primary education. For
secondary and collegiate schools, the enrollment ratios
were approximately 70 percent and 16 percent,
respectively..
LEISURE ACTIVITIES
The percentage of the national budget allocated to
culture and sports has decreased dramatically since 1950
(figure 8, table A-6), from almost 35 percent to less than
10 percent in 1985. As economic difficulties increased in
the Philippines, it was to be expected that a smaller
portion of the budget would go to these activities.
Tourism (figure 9, table A-7) has greatly increased
since the 1960s. Apparently efforts in the late 1970s
were successful in establishing the Philippines as a major
and competitive Asian tourist destination.
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0-}-
1960
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
YEAR
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FIGURE 8. CULTURE AND SPORTS AS A PERCENTAGE
OF THE NATIONAL BUDGET IN THE PHILIPPINES,
1952-84
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
YEAR
FIGURE 9. TOURISM IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1962-84
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III. THE ECONOMY
The Philippine economy continues to suffer from perva-
sive unemployment and a serious foreign debt burden.
Economic issues are foremost in the minds of most
Filipinos, ahead of the governmental reforms, crime, and
the insurgency, The success
and continued popularity of the new government will hinge
largely on Aquino's ability to address the economy
stimulate real growth over the next few years.
The economy of the Philippines has
sively,
overview of the economy. By
it is possible to assess the
Analysis (OEA) has
the country. This section
data, which give a general
tracking a few key variables,
broad outlook fairly quickly.
Inflation has been a serious economic problem, with
most of the rise in Gross National Product (GNP) in the
last 10 years due mainly to rising prices (figure 10,
table B-1). In real terms, i.e., constant prices, GNP
grew slowly in the early 1980s, but has declined since
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FIGURE 10. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN THE PHILIPPINES
1946-84
00.0001
l o
1960 1970
YEAR
FIGURE 11. PHILIPPINE CONSUMER PRICE INDICES, 1970-85
0
400.0001
200.000
Legend !
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (NOMINAL
GNP CONSTANT 1972 PRICUI-
4-
1940
T
1975
YEAR
T-
1980
1985
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Legend
CPI - ALL ITEMS
CPI - FOOD
CPI - CLOTHING
CPI - HOUSING
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1984. The Consumer Price Indices demonstrate the sharp
rise in prices in recent years (figure 11, table B-2),
although recent reports show a moderation of inflation.
The decline in the acquisition of new capital suggests
that it will be difficult to sustain real growth in the
future (figure 12, table B-3).
The burden of a massive foreign debt has placed a
serious constraint on the Philippine economy. Foreign
debt grew from $2.1 billion in 1971 to over $25 billion in
1983. Today the debt is roughly 80 percent of GNP and
interest payments alone will exceed a billion dollars a
year through the rest of the decade (figure 13
Imports continue to exceed exports, limiting the
country's ability to pay the foreign debt from earnings
abroad (figure 14 The situation has
improved, though, since 1983. How Aquino deals with the
debt issue will affect both the availability of new credit
and the country's ability to channel earnings into new
investments, rather than service on the debt.
Discontent among the working class is evident from the
rise in labor-related unrest (figure 15, table B-6).
Unemployment remains high, although reliable figures are
difficult to obtain (table B-7). Even those with jobs
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FIGURE 12. GROWTH IN CAPITAL IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1955-84
4,000-
2,000 -I
0 -1--
1955
1960 1965 1970
YEAR
1980 1985
Legend
NEW CAPITAL
NET INCREASE
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FIGURE 13. PHILIPPINE FOREIGN DEBT
(BILLIONS OF US DOLLARS)
SCHEDULED PAYMENTS
Legend
DEBT SERVICE
GROSS PRINCIPAL REPAYMENT
INTEREST, PAYMENTS
0
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
YEAR
DEBT AS A PERCENT OF GNP
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FIGURE 14. PHILIPPINE IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
Legend
EXPORTS
IMPORTS............
BALANCE OF TRADE
-5
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
YEAR
I FIGURE 15. NUMBER OF STRIKES AND WORKERS INVOLVED
Legend
STRIKES
M.UR
6t.pp.q..
Prohibit.d
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
YEAR
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IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1966-81
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have suffered from past inflation. Actual wages have
grownslowly compared to either the legislated minimum wage
or the rise in prices (figure 16
Problems with a low standard of living are not con-
fined to laborers. Published data, though limited, indi-
cate a small wealthy segment of society and large number
of poor. By most accounts, over half of the population
lives in poverty . (figure 17, table B-9). Real per capita
personal consumption has shown modest growth, suggesting
that the average Filipino is only a little better otf now
than 20 years ago (figure 18, table B-10).
The agricultural sector, which accounts for a major
portion of the Philippine economy, is suffering from a
decline in output (figure 19, table B-11). The total area
harvested has been roughly constant since the mid-1970s.
While the tonnage harvested grew in the 1970s, it has
since leveled out and actually declined in 1983. Because
agriculture employs roughly half of the work force, a
sustained economic recovery will require major
improvements in this area.
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FIGURE 16. WAGES FOR UNSKILLED WORKERS IN
METROPOLITAN MANILA, 1971-84
5 - --
1970
r
1972
Legend
LEGISLATED MINIMUM WAGE
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984
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FIGURE 17. DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH. IN
THE PHILIPPINES
SHARES OF NATIONAL INCOME, BY FAMILIES
Legend
2 INC.SHARE-LOW 20%
? INC.SHARE-HIGH 20%
7/70 vii*a vTr~
1957
1961 1965
YEAR
EEH
rrTT
1971
POVERTY RATE, BY FAMILIES
401--
1955
I
1960
1965
YEAR
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1970
1
1975
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FIGURE 18. PHILIPPINE PERSONAL CONSUMPTION
EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA, 1950-84
V)
N 4,000-r
2,000-{
1985
Legend
NOMINAL VALUE
REAL (1972) VAWEJ
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
YEAR
FIGURE 19. AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT IN THE PHILIPPINES,
1950-84
p 40,000~
Legend
AREA HARVESTED CT11OUS.NA)
QUANTI ARV. (THOUS.
I ~
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985
YEAR
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The Instability and Insurgency Center (IIC) has pub-
lished a set of indicators of political instability on a
quarterly basis since 1983 for selected countries, includ-
ing the Philippines.I The indicators are a compilation of
analysts' subjective assessments of the conditions in each
country. Each analyst rates the level of concern over
social conditions, the economy, the military, and various
political and external threats to the current regime. In
addition, the overall outlook for each country is assessed
over both the next six months and the next two years. The
instability indicators for the Philippines are examined
below.
DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA
The instability indicator data base consists of ana-
lysts' subjective assessments of a number of factors which
could influence political stability. The Instability and
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Insurgency Center has compiled these data since early
1983, although the list of variables and the countries
examined have expanded since that time. The indicators
fall into six broad categories:
Social Change/Conflict: labor or religious unrest
which undermines the current regime's ability to
rule effectively.
Economic Factors: various aspects of the
country's economic performance.
Opposition Activities: the opposition's ability
to mobilize effective anti-regime activity.
Military: dissatisfaction within the military,
rumors of coup plotting, and other military
factors which might contribute to instability.
External Factors: support for either the govern-
ment or the opposition by another country that
might affect stability.
Regime Capabilities/Actions: aspects of the
current regime that could contribute to
instability.
Several specific indicators were developed within each
of these categories (table 1). For each indicator, ana-
lysts rated the level of concern as being either insignif-
icant, low, moderate, substantial, or serious. These
categories were converted to a five point scale for the
data analysis presented in this paper. In addition to
ratings for the specific variables, analysts expressed
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CATEGORY
SPECIFIC INDICATORS
Social Change/Conflict
Ethnic/religious discontent.
Demonstrations, riots, strikes.
Economic Factors
General deterioration.
Decreased access to foreign funds.
Capital flight.
Unpopular changes in taxes, subsidies or price
controls.
Food/energy shortages.
Inflation.
Opposition Activities
organizational capabilities.
Opposition conspiracy/planning.
Terrorism and sabotage.
Insurgent armed attacks.
Public support.
Military Attitudes/Activities
Assault on or threat to corporate military
interests/dignity.
Discontent over career loss, pay or benefits.
Discontent over government actions/policies.
Report/rumors of coup plotting.
External Factors
External support for government.
External support for opposition.
Threat of military conflict.
Regime Actions/Capabilities
Repression/brutality.
Security capabilities.
Political disunity/loss of confidence.
Loss of legitimacy.
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their level of concern for each of the six categories as a
whole.
To provide an overall assessment of conditions in each
country, analysts were asked to judge the outlook for the
regime over the next six months and over the next two
years. These two variables were recorded using the same
five categories. Unfortunately, these overall outlooks
were not recorded before the. first quarter of 1984, lim-
iting the amount of data available for analysis.
UTILITY OF THE INDICATOR SYSTEM
Comparing recent events in the Philippines to the
subjective indicators demonstrates the difficulty in pro-
jecting or assessing political change. The individual
indicators painted a generally favorable picture for the
continuity of the Marcos regime. There was "substantial
concern," though, for the six-month and two-year outlooks,
suggesting that analysts were uneasy about the prospects
for stability but had difficulty equating this concern
with specific indicators. A weakness of the indicator
system is that it does not permit analysts to attach a
level of importance to specific indicators.
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The individual indicators showed only moderate to no
concern for all but four categories in the fourth quarter
of 1985. The four categories exhibiting serious concern
were insurgent armed attacks, public support for the oppo-
sition, discontent among the military over government
policies, and the loss of legitimacy by the regime. In
retrospect, it is clear that these few factors were deci-
sive in the change of government. Were it not for the
combination of highly publicized and widespread fraud in
the Presidential election, popular support for Aquino, and
the backing of the military at the crucial moment, the
change of government might not have occurred.
The utility of these subjective indicators is limited
by the difficulty in isolating the key factors for each
country and weighting them appropriately. The overall
impression for the Philippines is that concern was mod-
erate, but not high (figure 20, table C-1). Yet the few
factors cited above, along with the Church's role, proved
to be of great importance in Aquino's rise to power.
Although these factors were recognized, their importance
within the indicator system was not evident.
Problems in applying the indicators are compounded by
the natural tendency of analysts to hedge their bets and
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FIGURE 20. INSTABILITY INDICATORS FOR THE PHILIPPINES
9Oa& awuxS "cow= of E CNO W
s,
t 11
f7 1
~O co
~ 0
H W83 684 6880
684 W89 Web
YEAR
ME RIN& FXM FM AE ACIIOPIS
984 =5 W88
YEAR
983 684 W85 6e8
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express moderate concern most of the time. Statistical
analysis of the indicator data as a whole suggests that
this tendency has increased over time.2 To improve the
precision of these indicators, methods for identifying the
most important issues should be explored. Furthermore,
analysts must be encouraged to express varying levels for
these indicators, rather than gravitating towards the
middle.
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Iq
Next 5 Page(s) In Document Denied
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The Philippines will witness substantial population
growth by the end of the century, due mainly to a higher
birth rate in the post-war era. If current growth
continues unabated, the rise in the size of the work force
will far exceed the economy's capacity to absorb new
workers. For a country with high unemployment already,
this problem could prove insurmountable.
The beleaguered economy presents an enormous challenge
for President Aquino. Problems include a continued rise
in prices, extensive foreign debt, an unfavorable balance
of payments, stagnation in the agricultural sector, and a
grossly uneven distribution of wealth. Bold action is
required if Aquino intends to make more than minor im-
provements in the economy.
A set of subjective indicators, used to assess insta-
bility in several countries, correctly identified some of
the key factors in the recent change of government.
However, the indicator system needs a method for attaching
greater importance to these specific factors. The overall
impression given by the indicators in late 1985 was that
Marcos would remain in power, although these indicators
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raised serious concern about the government's loss of
legitimacy and the popular support for the opposition.
paper should serve as a starting point for a more compre-
hensive indicator system. Although the choice of
indicators will be constrained by the availability of
reliable data, primary consideration should be given to
the relative importance of different factors influencing
social change.
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Finally, subjective
assessments, such as the instability indicators examined
here, provide a different perspective on developments in a
country. By compiling and examining data from all of
these sources, a clearer picture of the. direction of the
country should emerge.
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TABULAR INFORMATION ON SOCIAL AND DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES
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TABLE A-1. PHILIPPINE POPULATION: TOTAL POPULATION
AND BREAKDOWN BY SEX, 1960-2000
YEAR
POPULATION
MALES
FEMALES
1960
27,088
13,789
13,570
1965
32,298
16,180
16,118
1970
38,652
18,329
18,522
1975
44,446
22,285
.22,161
1980
50,866
25,478
25,388
1981
52,258
26,166
26,092
1982
53,693
26,875
26,818
1983
55,179
27,614
27,565
1984
56,710
28,376
28,333
1985
58,278
29,158
29,120
1986
59,884
29,959
29,926
1987
61,525
30,776
30,748
1988
63,199
31,611
31,588
1989
64,907
32,463
32,444
1990
66,646
33,330
33,317
1995
75,779
37,884
37,895
2000
85,527
42,747
42,780
SOURCE: Efren Yambot, Philippine Almanac and Handbook of
Facts, 1977, Philippine Almanac Printers, Inc.,
p. 3.
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TABLE A-2. PHILIPPINE POPULATION BY AGE GROUP, 1960-2000
AGEGR"
YEAR
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
.40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60
1960
1965
4,618
5
407
4,413
4
98
3,470
3
2,842
2,483
1,973
1,572
1,443
1,110
1,043
717
493
1,166
,
,
2
,941
3,299
2,951
2,429
1,932
1,691
1,289
1,178
894
680
1
547
1970
6,115
5,443
4,330
3,701
3,389
2,894
2,298
1,915
1,447
1,288
1,079
932
,
2
022
1975
7,192
6,408
5,621
5,007
4,174
3,287
2,712
2,328
1,935
1,517
1,213
1
030
,
2
023
1980
1981
8,022
7,004
6,343
5,564
4,921
4,062
3,179
2,623
2,248
1,860
1,445
,
1,135
,
2,460
8,257
7,120
6,480
5,696
5,037
4,216
3,310
2,694
2,302
1,924
1,506
1
168
2
547
1982
1983
8,495
8
732
7,257
7
4
8
6,610
5,839
5,141
4,368
3,456
2,772
2,355
1,987
1,572
,
1,207
,
2,635
1984
,
,
1
6,733
5,989
5,243
4,518
3,613
2,860
2,410
2,048
1,640
1,251
2,723
1985
8,967
9
7,609
6,847
6,139
5,351
4,661
3,775
2,862
2,470
2,107
1,708
1,301
2,816
1986
,197
7,843
6,940
6,284
5,471
4,793
3,935
3,078
2,536
2,164
1,774
1,355
2,910
1987
9,423
9
643
8,079
8
3
7,056
6,421
5,604
4,912
4,192
3,210
2,609
2,219
1,839
1,414
3,008
1988
,
,
19
7,193
6,550
5,748
5,019
4,247
3,357
2,687
2,272
1,900
1,477
3,114
1989
9,858
10,068
8,557
8,794
7,354
7,554
6,673
6,787
5,898
6
047
5,122
5
229
4,397
4
538
3,514
3
674
2,775
2
876
2,327
1,959
1,542
3,222
1990
10,275
9,027
7,778
6,880
,
6,192
,
5,348
,
4,669
,
3,832
,
2,990
2,386
2,451
2,016
2,072
1,607
1
671
3,339
3
459
1995
2000
11,230
12
053
10,117
11
08
8,960
7,717
6,786
6,064
5,220
4,560
3,735
2,899
2,354
,
1,957
,
4,182
,
,
5
10,050
8,897
7,621
6,656
5,931
5,108
4,455
3,630
2,791
2,230
5,021
SOURCES: Pulse Research Group, Pulse Factbook, 1986, Consumer Pulse, Inc., p. 106.
Efren Yambot, Philippine Almanac and Handbook of Facts, 1977, Philippine Almanac Printers, Inc., p. 3.
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TABLE A-3. POPULATION, BIRTHS, DEATHS, DEATHS UNDER 1 YEAR,
AND MATERNAL DEATHS IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1920-83
YEAR
POPULATION
BIRTHS
DEATHS
DEATHS
UNDER
1 YEAR
MATERNA~
DEATHS
1920
10,445,300
315,195
200,690
1925
11,665,500
387,568
206,454
58,204
1930
13,094,100
429,245
252,988
70,826
3,331
1935
14,731,300
461,410
257,181
70,793
3,230
1940
16,459,900
535,117
273,480
72,647
3,397
1946
18,434,400
533,283
278,546
66,902
1950
20,315,800
642,472
226,505
65,278
2,406
1955
23,757,600
734,761
219,798
61,958
2,339
1960
27,410,000
810,904
212,688
59,301
1,981
1961
28,313,000
782,857
213,587
56,663
2,023
1962
29,257,000
832,204
213,439
56,365
1,944
1963
30,241,000
851,459
215,743
56,700
1,783
1964
31,270,000
880,871
214,904
54,174
1,031
1965
32,345,000
871,715
241,305
59,733
1,757
1966
33,477,000
908,826
240,865
59,810
1,829
1967
34,656,000
911,872
241,548
59,448
1,822
1968
35,883,000
961,646
253,841
62,994
1,979
1969
37,158,000
1,015,784
255,785
65,142
2,047
1970
36,849,000
1,008,504
248,251
59,774
1,950
1971
37,959,000
963,749.
250,139
59,730
1,261
1972
39,040,100
968,385
285,761
65,719
1,379
1973
40,219,000
1,049,290
283,475
67,881
1,488
1974
41,297,000
1,081,073
283,975
63,491
-
1975
42,071,000
1,223,837
271,136
65,263
-
1976
43,338,000
1,314,860
299,861
74,792
-
1977
44,417,000
1,344,836
308,904
76,330
1978
45,498,000
1,387,588
297,034
73,640
1
526
1979
46,592,000
1,429,814
306,427
71,772
,
1,430
1980
48,098,000
1,456,860
298,006
65,700
1
457
1981
49,526,000
1,461,204
301,117
64,415
,
1,315
1982
50,740,000
1,474,491
308,758
61,665
1
327
1983
51,994,000
1,311,417
301,676
-
,
1,049
SOURCES: Efren Yambot, Philippine Almanac and Handbook of Facts, 1977, Philippine Almanac
Printers, Inc., p. 22.
Republic of the Philippines, Philippine Yearbook, 1985, National Census and
Statistics Office, p. 267.
'Maternal deaths for 1978 to 1983 are imputed values.
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TABLE A-4. NUMBER OF MARRIAGES BY TYPE OF CEREMONY
IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1977-82
TYPE OF CEREMONY
YEAR
RELIGIOUS
CIVIL
1977
222,505
101,938
1978
233,792
106,269
1979
249,018
111,834
1980
239,196
114,869
1981
231,132
118,502
1982
228,482
123,277
SOURCE: Republic of the Philippines, Philippine Yearbook,
1985, National Census and Statistics Office, p.
190.
TABLE A-5. PERCENT OF POPULATION IN THE PHILIPPINES
WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS OF EDUCATION, 1980-87
LEVEL OF EDUCATION
YEAR
ELEMENTARY
SECONDARY
TERTIARY
1980
90.0
58.0
14.9
1981
90.7
57.7
15.1
1982
91.4
59.2
15.3
1983
92.1
62.6
15.6
1987
95.0
80.1
17.4
SOURCE: Republic of the Philippines, Five-Year Philippine
Development Plan, 1983-1987, 1982, National
Economic and Development Authority, p. 105.
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TABLE A-6. CULTURE AND SPORTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE
NATIONAL BUDGET IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1952-84
YEAR
PERCENT OF NATIONAL
GOVERNMENT BUDGET
1952
34.94
1953
34.92
1954
33.17
1955
30.78
1956
29.68
1957
31.53
1958
26.95
1959
25.18
1960
27.50
1961
28.08
1962
29.59
1963
29.27
1964
25.72
1965
26.41
.1966
29.77
1967
31.16
1968
30.26
1969
26.86
1970
24.97
1971
27.03
1972
26.23
1973
16.33
1974
17.18
1975
11.33
1976
7.51
1977
7.45
1978
11.14
1979
10.70
1980
9.01
1981
7.61
1982
7.68
1983
8.85
1984
10.50
SOURCE: Republic of the Philippines, Philippine
Statistical Yearbook, 1984, National Economic and
Development Authority, p. 501.
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YEAR
NUMBER OF
VISITOR ARRIVALS
1962
62,364
1968
112,713
1969
123,268
1970
144,071
1971
144,321
1972
166,431
1973
242,800
1974
410,138
1975
502,211
1976
615,159
1977
730,123
1978
859,396
1979
966,873
1980
1,008,159
1981
938,953
1982
890,807
1983
860,550
1984
816,712
SOURCES:
Efren Yambot, Philippine Almanac and Handbook of
Facts, 1977, Philippine Almanac Printers, Inc.,
p. 273.
Republic
of
the Philippines,
Philippine
Yearbook,
1985,
National Census and
Statistics
Office, p.
725.
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TABLE B-1. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN THE PHILIPPINES,
1946-84
YEAR
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(MILLIONS OF PESOS,
CURRENT PRICES)
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(CONSTANT 1972 PRICES)
1946
4,636
8,830
1947
5,699
12,072
1948
6,197
14,023
1949
6,517
14,907
1950
6,948
16,341
1951
7,708
17,989
1952
8,111
19,337
1953
8,510
20,691
1954
8,828
22,278
1955
9,404
23,709
1956
10,287
25,577
1957
11,232
26,928
1958
11,905
27,997
1959
12,943
29,746
1960
13,833
30,151
1961
15,161
32,242
1962
17,030
34,019
1963
19,793
36,383
1964
21,383
37,627
1965
23,382
39,520
1966
25,745
41,240
1967
28,734
43,224
1968
31,791
45,540
1969
35,012
47,967
1970
41,751
50,035
1971
49,599
52,921
1972
55,526
55,526
1973
71,616
60,881
1974
99,631
64,739
1975
114,072
68,530
1976
132,712
72,718
1977
154,280
77,789
1978
178,067
83,070
1979
220,957
88,736
1980
265,008
92,629
1981
303,644
96,041
1982
335,423
97,539
1983
379,170
98,767
1984
537,363
93,519
SOURCES: Republic of the Philippines, Philippine
Statistical Yearbook, 1984, National Economic
and Development Authority, 1985, pp. 198-201.
Philippine Statistical Yearbook, 1985, p. 166-
167.
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TABLE B-2. PHILIPPINE CONSUMER PRICE INDICES (CPI),
1970-85
YEAR
ALL ITEMS
FOOD
CLOTHING
HOUSING
1970
34.6
33.4
32.1
30.2
1971
39.8
40.1
35.3
36.8
1972
46.4
48.1
42.4
44.4
1973
53.9
55.4
48.6
57.0
1974
72.5
74.5
72.5
68.2
1975
77.5
78.5
79.5
71.0
1976
85.0
86.0
83.0
80.5
1977
93.0
94.0
91.3
90.9
1978
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
1979
117.5
115.6
117.9
118.3
1980
138.9
132.9
144.2
137.4
1981
157.1
149.8
162.0
154.7
1982
173.2
162.5
178.2
180.5
1983
190.5
176.5
194.5
200.3
1984
286.4
271.4
303.7
266.6
1985
351.3
330.4
386.4
332.4
SOURCES: Republic of the Philippines, Philippine
Statistical Yearbook, 1984, National Economic
and Development Authority, 1985, pp. 156-157.
Philippine Statistical Yearbook, 1985, p. 136.
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TABLE B-3. ACQUISITION OF NEW CAPITAL IN THE
,PHILIPPINES, 1955-84
YEAR
NEW CAPITAL
(MILLIONS OF PESOS)
NET INCREASE
(MILLIONS OF PESOS)
1955
18.4
2.6
1960
103.8
88.4
1965
198.4
162.5
1970
461.2
449.2
1971
525.1
499.1
1972
544.2
457.8
1973
744.8
680.3
1974
1,622.3
1,597.5
1975
1,448.0
1,310.8
1976
1,695.6
1,638.7
1977
1,028.6
981.0
1978
1,942.7
1,763.3
1979
2,375.9
2,234.9
1980
3,776.4
3,741.4
1981
5,966.8
5,634.3
1982
4,087.3
3,988.9
1983
3,789.1
3,041.6
1984
2,428.8
2,039.0
SOURCE: Republic of the Philippines, Philippine
Statistical Yearbook, 1984, National Economic and
Development Authority, 1985, p. 392.
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TABLE B-6. STRIKES AND WORKERS INVOLVED IN
THE PHILIPPINES, 1966-81
YEAR1
NUMBER OF STRIKES
NUMBER OF
WORKERS INVOLVED
1966
108
61,496
1967
88
47,524
1968
121
46,445
1969
122
62,803
1970
104
36,852
1971
157
62,138
1972
69
33,369
1975
5
1,760
1976
86
70,929
1977
33
30,183
1978
53
33,731
1979
48
16,72.8
1980
60
20,902
1981
260
98,585
11972, 1975 are partial years,
1973,
1974 missing due to a
prohibition on work stoppages
under
martial law.
SOURCE: R. J. May and Francisco Nemenzo (eds.),
Philippines After Marcos, St. Martins Press,
York, 1985, p. 99..
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TABLE B-7. STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE IN THE
PHILIPPINES, 1965-84
1
YEAR
LABOR FORCE 2
PARTICIPATION RATE
UNEMPLOIMENT
RATE
1965
53.1
6.2
1966
55.1
7.0
1967
54.7
7.7
1968
49.6
7.9
1969
52.0
6.7
1970
52.0
7.7
1971
50.2
5.3
1972
48.4
5.4
1973
50.4
4.8
1974
49.7
3.2
1975
51.0
4.2
1976
60.5
5.2
1977
58.2
4.5
1978
62.5
4.1
1979
61.4
4.0
1980
59.8
5.0
1981
61.7
5.3
1982
60.1
6.0
1983
64.1
5.4
1984
64.2
6.2
11979-83 are projected values.
2SOURCES:
Republic of the Philippines, Philippine
Statistical Yearbook, 1984, National Economic
and Development Authority, 1985, p. 510.
Philippine Statistical Yearbook, 1985, p. 472.
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TABLE B-9. POVERTY AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH
IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1957-75
INCOME SHARE
INCOME SHARE
(PERCENT)
(PERCENT)
POVERTY
FOR THE LOW
FOR THE HIGH
RATE
YEAR
20 PERCENT
20 PERCENT
(PERCENT)
1957
4.5
55.1
72.1
1961
4.2
56.5
57.9
1965
3.5
55.5
43.3
1971
3.6
54.0
44.9
1975
-
-
53.2
SOURCE: R. J. May and Francisco Nemenzo (eds.), The
Philippines After Marcos, St. Martins Press, New
York, 1985, p. 140.
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TABLE B-10. PHILIPPINE PER CAPITA PERSONAL
CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, 1950-84
YEAR
NOMINAL
(PESOS)
REAL (1972)
(PESOS)
1950
266
623
1955
334
824
1960
391
863
1965
565
954
1970
802
1,007
1971
938
1,016
1972
1,026
1,026
1973
1,206
1,058
1974'
1,634
1,081
1975
1,802
1,092
1976
2,005
1,103
1977
2,297
1,151
1978
2,590
1,179
1979
3,112 ?
1,201
1980
3,684
1,227-
1.981
4,178
1,224
19'82
4,617
1,251
1983
5,152
1,255
1984,
7,586
1,238
SOURCES: Republic of the Philippines, Philippine
Statistical Yearbook, 1984, National Economic
and Development Authority, 1985, pp. 210-211.
Philippine Statistical Yearbook, 1985, pp. 188-
189.
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TABLE 0-11. AGRIQJLIURAL Qll'PUr IN THE PHILIPPINES, 1950-84
PALAY RUUQI RICE)
TOTAL QT11[TP (ALL CROPS)
MEAN
AREA HARVESTED
QUANTITY HARVEST
VALUE IN
AREA
YIELD
YEAR
(THOUSANDS OF HECTARES)
(THOUSANDS METRIC IONS)
MILLION PESOS
(flEUSANDS OF MCPARFS)
(MT/HA)
1950
5,075
5,888.8
1,497.9
2,214.0
1.177
1955
6,431
8,632.8
1,559.5
2,655.5
1.206
1960
7,594
10,411.2
2,045.9
3,306.5
1.131
1965
8,252
12,242.8
3,278.4
3,199.7
1.248
1970
8,946
15,200.5
8,099.7
3,113.4
1.681
1971
9,180
15,621.4
9,143.8
3,195.8
1.746
1972
9,468
15,421.2
10,341.8
3,332.3
1.598
1973
9,295
15,309.1
10,806.5
3,194.2
1.443
1974
10,208
17,711.2
17,844.2
3,527.8
1.656
1975
10,853
19,807.4
20,147.5
3,632.5
1.627
1976
11,633
23,329.4
20,207.8
3,674.0
1.750
1977
11,937
24,506.5
27,898.7
3,641.4
1.851
1978
11,892
26,095.9
26,8.23.7
3,601.7
1.999
1979
12,061
28,597.7
33,758.3
3,560.7
2.110
1980
12,133
29,809.0
37,992.1
3,636.8
2.154
1981
11,960
29,507.9
42,368.1
3,459.1
2.233
1982
12,216
29,709.3
41,335.1
3,442.8
2.360
1983
11,639
27,460.1
38,217.0
3,239.6
2.386
1984
11,749
27,449.9
63,760.2
3,140.7
2,497
SOURCE: Republic of the Philippines, Philippine Statistical Yearbook, 1984, National Economic and
Development Authority, 1985, pp. 314-315.
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TABULAR INFORMATION ON INDICATORS OF
POLITICAL INSTABILITY
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TABLE C-1. INSTABILITY INDICATORS FOR THE PHILIPPINES'
19832
19842
9852
FACTOR
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
SOCIAL CHANGE/CONFLICT
3
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
ETHNIC/RELIGIOUS DISCONTENT
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
.3
DEMONSTRATIONS RIOTS, STRIKES
1
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
ECONOMIC FACTORS
3
3
5
5
5
5
5
3
3
3
3
GENERAL ECONOMIC DETERIORATION
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
3
DECREASED ACCESS TO FOREIGN FUNDS
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
CAPITAL FLIGHT
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
UNPOPULAR CHANGES
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
3
3
FOOD/ENERGY SHORTAGES
3
3
3
1
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
INFLATION
0
0
0
4
4
4
4
3
1
1
1
OPPOSITION ACTIVITIES
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
ORGANIZATIONAL CAPABILITIES
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
OPPOSITION PLANNING
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
TERRORISM AND SABOTAGE
1
1
1
1
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
INSURGENT ARMED ATTACKS
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
5
5
PUBLIC SUPPORT
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
MILITARY ATTITUDES/ACTIVITIES
0
0
0
1
1
1
3
3
3
3
3
THREAT TO MILITARY INTERESTS
0
0
0
1
1
1
3
3
3
3
3
DISCONTENT OVER CAREER
0
0
0
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
DISCONTENT OVER GOVERNMENT POLICY
0
0
0
3
3
3
3
3
5
5
5
REPORTS OF COUP PLOTTING
1
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
EXTERNAL FACTORS
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
EXTERNAL SUPPORT FOR GOVERNMENT
1
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
EXTERNAL SUPPORT FOR OPPOSITION
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
THREAT OF MILITARY CONFLICT
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
REGIME ACTIVITIES/CAPABILITIES
3
5
5
3
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
REPRESSION AND BRUTATLITY
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
3
3
3
SECURITY CAPABILITIES
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
POLITICAL DISUNITY
1
3
3
3
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
LOSS OF LEGITIMACY
1
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
SIX-MONTH OUTLOOK
0
0
0
4
3
3
3
3
3
4
4
TWO-YEAR OUTLOOK
0
0
0
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
10=missing value, 1=insignificant concern,
4=substantial concern, 5=serious concern.
21, II, III, IV indicate quarters of years.
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