CENTRAL AMERICAN MONTHLY REPORT #39

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000707470001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 27
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 18, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 1, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

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REPORT #39
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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
OCTOBER 1986
CENTRAL AMERICAN MONTHLY REPORT #39
This memorandum was prepared by the Central America and Nicaragua Branches,
ALA. It was coordinated with the Directorate of Operations. It contains information
available as of 1 November 1986. Questions and comments are welcome and should be
addressed to Chief, Middle America-Caribbean Division, ALA
Copy 111- of 80
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October 1986
CENTRAL AMERICAN MONTHLY REPORT #39
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Perspective--El Salvador: Ramifications of the Earthquake
Nicaragua
Honduras
Guatemala
Costa Rica
Panama
Regional Peace Negotiations
Nicaraguan Clashes by Week, November 1985-October 1986
Nicaraguan Clashes by Region, January-October 1986
FDN Troops Inside Nicaragua, January-October 1986
Nicaraguan Military Buildup
Significant Nicaraguan Political Events
Insurgent Human Rights Record
Sandinista Human Rights Record
Nicaraguan Travels/Visits
Coming Events in Central America During November
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EL SALVADOR: Ramifications of the Earthquake
The Salvadoran Government's handling of disaster relief in the aftermath of the 10
October earthquake--which left an estimated 1,000 dead and 10,000 injured--generally
has received high marks, but President Duarte is likely to encounter political problems
later if his reconstruction efforts are perceived to be inefficient or inadequate. US
Embassy reporting indicates the government moved quickly and effectively to treat the
injured and to provide food and temporary shelter for most of the homeless. Except for
some continuing water shortages, basic services were largely restored within days, and
foreign assistance has helped ease other shortages. Codperation between civilian
ministries, the military, and the private sector reportedly has been good despite some
initial problems in coordinating relief efforts.
Preliminary assessments by US officials indicate that property damages and losses
may exceed $1.3 billion. The major damage occurred in a 20-block area of downtown
San Salvador, where at least 40 government buildings and three major hospitals
suffered extensive structural damage. Embassy officials report that poor neighborhoods
with flimsy squatter housing and tenements also were hit hard. There was significant
damage to many military installations in the capital--about $110 million by one
estimate--but the US defense attache reports that the damage offers the opportunity
to build better and more modern facilities to replace the antiquated and inadequate
buildings the armed forces had been using
Besides the restoration of services, the government's reconstruction plan focuses
on housing for as many 300,000 displaced persons--about 20 percent of the capital's
population. US Embassy reporting indicates that the plan also calls for loans to small
and medium-sized firms to ease private sector losses. Private businesses, many of
them uninsured, suffered substantial damage that will limit their ability to contribute to
recovery and put additional pressure on the government to provide subsidies and other
The long and costly reconstruction of damaged areas will further burden the
already financially strapped government. Even with substantial foreign assistance, San
Salvador will be faced with tough decisions on budget allocations that are likely to
make it difficult to reach even this year's projected level of growth--less than 1
percent--in 1987. President Duarte has pledged that funds earmarked for Army civic
action programs in the countryside will not be used in earthquake reconstruction. F_
The earthquake has had little impact on the level of fighting. The army has
sustained operations throughout the country, according to the US defense attache, and
has not withdrawn any units from the field to help with relief efforts in the capital.
the guerrillas continued to mount ambush and sabotage
attacks even during the 10-day unilateral ceasefire they announced after the
earthquake.
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The rebels and sympathetic front groups are actively accusing the government of
The insurgents probably will make some gains in recruiting in San Salvador's
poorer neighborhoods.
Perceptions that the government is not doing all it can for the earthquake victims
would play into rebel hands and could lead to greatly increased agitation as early as
next year. Failure to meet expectations of the displaced for new and better housing
and improved delivery of services could prompt questions about the administration's
competence and honesty. The Embassy reports that Duarte is so concerned to avoid
the appearance of corruption or diversion that relief supplies are not being used for
purposes even bordering on military application--for example, aid to soldiers' families
hurt by the earthquake--a policy that is sure to undermine morale in the armed forces
if it is not soon reversed.
His concern is well founded. Even before the earthquake, there was some
grumbling that Duarte was more interested in prosecuting the war than in addressing
development needs, and the President's standing with the lower classes could be badly
damaged if rebel propaganda strengthens this belief. Similarly, opposition to Duarte
from businessmen and the right could increase if they perceive his reconstruction plan
is aimed at enhancing his popularity or is fostering greater public dependency on
government programs at the expense of private enterprise.
So far, San Salvador's performance in disaster relief matches that of the
Guatemalan Government in 1976. The Guatemalans' quick, competent, and honest
handling of relief efforts following an earthquake that caused far more damage than in
San Salvador kept popular support on the government's side, partly because of a
7-percent growth rate that year. In contrast, widespread perception of governmental
insensitivity and gross corruption following the devastating 1972 earthquake in
Nicaragua is widely believed to have been a major factor in the Sandinistas' eventual
victory over Somoza. Faced with a serious insurgency and longstanding economic
problems while trying to recover from a damaging earthquake, the real test for the
Salvadoran Government will be whether it can sustain its high marks for
responsiveness, efficiency, and honesty over the coming months.
NICARAGUA
Managua used the crash of an insurgent aircraft in early October and the trial of the
surviving crewman to portray itself internationally as the victim of US "aggression" and to
try to undermine US and regional support for the rebels. Sandinista media and diplomatic
campaigns included formal diplomatic protests to Washington and San Salvador and public
accusations that the aircraft crewmen were US Government employees assisted by El
Salvador. The decision to try the survivor, a US citizen, in the Popular Anti-Somocista
Tribunals--the longstanding venue for cases involving alleged "counterrevolutionary
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activity"--indicates a regime focus on whipping up support at home. To offset international
criticism of the tribunals and aid Managua's propaganda efforts, the government has opened
the proceedings to the public, and the crewman--unlike previous defendants--is being
On the domestic front, the Sandinistas continued efforts to maintain a facade of
pluralism while keeping the opposition off-balance. A second round of talks between
Church and government officials was held in Magagua in late October, but reporting from
the US Embassy indicates no substantive agreements were reached. The Sandinistas also
participated in talks with opposition parties in the National Assembly on reforming the new
constitution. At month's end, however, the regime halted the dialogue, citing differences
among the opposition groups.
Military activity was highlighted by fighting in the Las Vegas salient.
the regime moved several hundred troops to the Honduran border
earlier in the month, increased patrolling in the salient, and began to shell insurgent
Sandinista troops also harassed a Honduran border post and two commercia
killing one civilian and wounding three others, according to Honduran press reports.
On the economic front last month, food shortages in the rural northwest continued to
mount, while falling export earnings threatened to squeeze imports of basic consumer goods
even further. severe hunger in Chinandega
Department, despite recent grain harvests, new foreign food donations, and the Sandinistas'
priority of supplying rural areas first. At the same time, the regime publicly admitted that
1986 export earnings would be the lowest since the revolution. The reduction will translate
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into fewer imports of consumer goods, vital spare parts, and machinery, making the
domestic economy--including food supplies--increasingly dependent on foreign donations.
By the end of October, the military had united--at least temporarily--behind command
changes resulting from the barracks putsch in late September.
Meanwhile, the military and President Azcona continued to emphasize the importance
of minimizing publicity about anti-Sandinista activities in Honduras and indicated they
expected the guerrillas to move back into Nicaragua soon after US aid arrives.
the military remains supportive of US policy towards Nicaragua but
is increasingly sensitive to public complaints from displaced coffee growers, who claim the
rebel presence has created an economic hardship. Riera is likely to be more forceful in
seeking maximum economic benefits in exchange for the military's support of the
anti-Sandinista rebels. A new Armed Forces Political Commission named by General
Regalado is recommending the military play a more active role in mapping strategy and
reviewing the military operations of the Nicaraguan rebels,
President Cerezo returned from a two-week tour of Europe with promises of increased
economic aid, new backing for his regional peace initiatives, and a revived international
interest in his country's nine-month-old government. According to the US Embassy in
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Madrid, Spanish President Gonzalez expressed full support for Cerezo's proposed Central
American Parliament and the Contadora negotiations, both of which have stalled in part
because of differences between Nicaragua and the Central American democracies.
Italy reportedly will provide Guatemala $144 million in grants and soft
loans over the next two years. Cerezo's promotion of Central American interests helped lay
the groundwork for meetings between the European Economic Community and Central
American countries to be held in Guatemala next February. While Cerezo was successful in
promoting investment and attracting badly needed financial aid, he probably regards his
greatest achievement as improving Guatemala's image in Europe, especially with Christian
Democratic parties.
COSTA RICA
While continuing to press for better terms, San Jose demonstrated some flexibility in
its dealings with international creditors. President Arias publicly indicated that Costa Rica
wants commercial bankers to reschedule all debt over 25 years, with a seven-year grace
period for repayment. Nonetheless, at the end of October, San Jose made a token
payment--the first in four months--of $5 million in interest to commercial banks. A
subsequent meeting with the bank advisory committee was "constructive," according to the
US Embassy, but the creditors are unlikely to consent to the generous terms desired by
Costa Rica. If the banks threatened to seize Costa Rican assets and further limit access to
credit lines, the government probably would moderate its terms for rescheduling.
PANAMA
President Delvalle prepared to submit controversial social security reform legislation in
late October to facilitate ongoing negotiations between Panama and its major creditors on
new rescheduling and financing packages. The bank advisory committee reportedly put debt
talks on hold until Panama City secures a second World Bank structural adjustment loan,
which has been delayed until the government reforms the social security system and sells
off some public sector enterprises. According to US Embassy reporting, Panama is asking
bankers to reschedule $1.2 billion owed over the next three years and to provide $200
million in fresh loans. Defense Chief Noriega's support for the unpopular reforms
underscores Panama's commitment to securing legislation that meets the World Bank's
demands, but the government's slowness in making economic adjustments probably will
postpone final agreement until next year.
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REGIONAL PEACE NEGOTIATIONS
The Contadora talks continued to languish in October, despite steps by the mediators
and support group to build on the marginal success of their meeting at the UN in late
September. Serious differences notwithstanding, the participants issued a communique
pledging to continue the search for a regional settlement. Indeed, in another effort to revive
the talks, the Vice Foreign Ministers of the eight Contadora countries met in Mexico City at
the end of October to assess the status of the negotiations, according to press and US
Embassy reporting.
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Nicaraguan Clashes by Week, November 1985 - October 1986
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT
1985 1986
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250 r
Nicaraguan Clashes by Region
January-October 1986
Jan L=eo ; iar Apr
October data is Lncanpa_ete.
L9
ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
South
Pac i 11 i
Cen tra 1
Hor tiheast
northwest
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FON Troops Inside Nicaragua
January-October 1986
':umber, of Troops
A. 000
12. 000
. 000
000
9000
8000 -
;'000
6000
5300 --
4000
3000
2000
000
Jan r eb 4, a^ Apr Tray tiun Ju y ug Sep Oct
0L
[IHighest Point
Lowest Point
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SIGNIFICANT NICARAGUAN POLITICAL EVENTS
10 October Nicaraguan Foreign Minister D'Escoto speaks before UN General
Assembly on US intervention in Nicaragua, downing of rebel resupply
flight, and US refusal to abide by decision of International Court of
Justice.
20 October Managua tries US survivor of downed rebel resupply flight in Popular
Anti-Somocista Tribunal. Nicaraguan officials indicate he may be
sentenced to 30-year prison term for "crimes against the state" and
terrorist actions.
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Insurgent Human Rights Record
According to the proregime press, insurgents ambushed a vehicle in northern
Nicaragua in, late September, raped a female passenger, and killed her and two other
civilians. Local residents reported to the US Embassy in Managua, however, that insurgents
actually had ambushed a military vehicle, killing two soldiers and a pregnant civilian woman.
indicated that insurgents who stopped a bus on the
Rama road exchanged fire with militia troops, causing an unknown number of injuries to
passengers.
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Six civilians, including three women, were killed and thirty-four wounded when a bus
hit an insurgent landmine northeast of Managua, according to the proregime press. 25X1
Sandinista Human Rights Record
According to the US Embassy in Managua, prisoners' family members reported that a
hunger strike in January at one of Nicaragua's largest prisons was broken up with tear gas
and automatic rifle fire. Some 15-20 prisoners were killed.
The Interior Ministry announced that four officers had been disciplined for abuse of
authority and mistreatment of prisoners, according to the proregime press. F__1 25X1
human rights abuses in August and September.
Sandinista troops committed numerous
Sandinista troops machinegunned the house of a civilian, killing a young child and
wounding two women, in Jinotega Department.
The Sandinista Air Force indiscriminately bombed several locations in central
Zelaya Department, seriously wounding members of several families.
government troops frequently are 25X1
recruited under false pretexts, and many o them desert because of bad treatment.
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-- Two youths were killed after the Sandinistas mined an area in northwestern
Nicaragua.
Sandinista troons continued to resettle civilians in northwestern Nicaragua by force
during September,
A Sandinista patrol in central Zelaya Department tortured three women in order to
obtain locations of their husbands, then robbed and killed the women,
a peasant by severing his hands and breaking his arms and legs before decapitating him. C
reported that Sandinista troops abducted two civilian 25X1
women to deter an insurgent attack against their military vehicle. One of the women was
wounded in a rebel ambush. 25X1
Sandinista troops in Zelaya Department tortured
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Sandinista troops inside Honduras beat a
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A Nicaraguan labor leader sent a lengthy letter to AIFLD officials detailing specific
instances of Sandinista repression of the democratic labor movement since 1979.
Sandinista troops in southern Nicaragua tortured
a peasant by cutting off his fingers and then killed him.
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Some 20 families fled to evade forcible evacuation by Sandinista troops to another
area of northwestern Nicaragua, F- -1 25X1
Sandinista forces t6rt5red a civilian in southern
Nicaragua by cutting off his ears and testicles before executing him. His children also were
abducted but later found unharmed.
For some 11 hours, Sandinistas bombarded the civilian populations of several villages
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in southern Nicaragua with BM-21 rockets, 25X1
According to the US Embassy in Tegucigalpa, a clergyman reported he led nearly 200
refugees from northern Nicaragua into Honduras in early April after Sandinista troops had
burned his chapel, murdered five unarmed civilians attempting to flee Sandinista repression,
and executed a peasant in the presence of his children.
Sandinistas continued to relocate entire 25X1
families by force in northwestern Nicaragua, executing those that attempted to flee. 25X1
The US Embassy in Tegucigalpa reported that Sandinista troops inside Nicaragua fired
an explosive across the border at a Honduran commercial bus, killing one civilian and
wounding three. A second Honduran commercial bus was fired on by Sandinista troops
inside Honduras the same day.
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The US Embassy in Managua obtained a letter written by a Nicaraguan prisoner
describing the details of her incarceration in state security and Justice Ministry prisons since
her arrest in December 1982. The woman claims she has been subjected to sexual abuse
while pregnant, physical torture, interrogations at gunpoint, deprivation of food drink, and
sleep, solitary confinement, and repeated threats to kill her and her children.
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Early October
Nicaraguan Foreign Minister D'Escoto visits New York to address
UN General Assembly.
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Cambodian Vice Foreign Minister Bo Rasy visits Nicaragua at
request of Nicaraguan Foreign Ministry.
Nicaraguan Minister of Foreign Cooperation Ruiz and delegation
visit Hungary to meet with economic officials. FI 25X1
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COMING EVENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING OCTOBER
November
8 November
10 November
Trial of downed US airman in Nicaragua to continue until about 20
November.
Twenty-fifth anniversary of founding of Sandinista National
Liberation Front.
Guatemala to host OAS General Assembly session.
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European Parliament delegation visit Guatemala, El Salvador,
Honduras, Nicaragua, and Cuba.7
Honduran President Azcona to participate in Conference on the
Caribbean in Miami.
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Copy 1 - Vice Admiral John Poindexter
2 - The Honorable Elliot Abrams/William
Walker/Philip Habib, State
3 - Mr. Donald Gregg, The White House
4 - HPSCI
5 - SSCI
6 - Lt. Gen. Leonard H. Perroots, USAF
7 - Mr. Nestor D. Sanchez, DOD
8 - Mr. Raymond Burghardt, NSC
9 - Lt. Gen. William E. Odom, USA
10 - LTG John H.. Moellering, USA
11 - Ambassador Morton I. Abramowitz, INR
12 - Mr. Doug Mulholland, Treasury
13 - The Honorable Fred C. Ikle, DOD
14 - CAJIT, 1D917, Pentagon (Ken Rosen)
15 - SOUTHCOM
16 - DCI - 7D60
17 - DDCI - 7D6011
18 - Ambassador Peter Dailey, 7E12
19 - Executive Secretary - 7D60
20 - SA/DCI/IA - 7E12
21 - Executive Registry - 7E12
22 - DDI - 7E44
23 - DDO - 7E26
24 - PINS/SOG/GB - 1E4846
24 - NIO/LA - 7E62
26 - NIC/AG - 7E47
27 - Mr. Daniel Childs, Comptroller - 7C21
28 - C/DDI/PES - 7F24
29 - D/OIA -
30 - Director, Legislative Liaison - 7D43
31 - Legislative Liaison - 7B04
32 -
33 - PDB Staff - 7F30
34 & 35 - D/ALA - 3F45
36 - C/DDO/LA - 3C3203
37 - DDO/LAT- 3D5309
38 - C/DDO/LAD 3C3203
39 - C/DDO/LA - 3B44
40 - Cl 3B44
41 & 42 - ALA/PS - 4F21
42 - ALA Research Director - 3F44
44 - 47 - CPAS/IMC/CB - 7G07
48 - DDI/CPAS/ISS - 7G40
48 - CPAS/CDPB/CC - GH25
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C/LA 1 H39
- SCIO/CPAS - 7F27
- PPS/PO/RPB - 3D02
24
C/ALA/MCD
DC/ALA/MCD
C/ALA/MX
C/ALA/CAR
C/ALA/CU
C/ALA/Nica.
C/ALA/CA
80 - Nica. Bra
DDI/ALA/MCD/N/C
(10 November 1986)
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