AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000303190001-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 22, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: October 28, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

11 LEGIB
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Directorate of Top Secret
j -;L Intelligence
Afghanistan Situation Report
NESA M 86-20163JX
SOYA M 86-20102JX
28 October 1986
Copy 0 80
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In the Kabul
area, a continuing high level of insurgent
activity caused stricter safety measures for air
traffic.
An Afghan resistance delegation is trying to
arrange official receptions in several Asian
countries on stopovers en route to New York for
the UN General Assembly vote on the Afghan
resolution. The vote is next week, but plans for
the Asian tour are still in the early stages. F
28 October 1986
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AFGHAN RESOURCES: HOW IMPORTANT FOR THE SOVIETS? 7 25X1
A contract study asserts that Afghanistan is
likely to remain an economic burden to the USSR,
despite extensive Soviet exploitation of the
country's resources
This document was prepared by the Office of
Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the
Office of Soviet Analysis. Questions or comments
on the issues raised in the publication should be
28 October 1986
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NESA M 86-20163JX
SOVA M 86-20102JX
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PROTECTING THE FORCES TAKES PRIORITY
The US Embassy in Kabul reports that the Soviets and
the Afghans are continuing their still unsuccessful
efforts to secure the area around Kabul. In recent
weeks, regime forces reportedly established 65 security
posts in the Paghman hills west of the city. Despite
these actions, the insurgents continued their rocket
attacks against Kabul, causing reduced air traffic at
the airport, according to the US Embassy. The threat
posed by insurgent air defense weaponry also caused
noticeable changes last week in flight patterns for
aircraft using Kabul International Airport. Departing
aircraft reached "safe" altitudes by ascending in a
tight spiral directly over the airport, and four flare-
dispensing helicopters accompanied large fixed wing
aircraft in and out of Kabul airspace.
RESISTANCE ALLIANCE'S FAR-EASTERN TOUR
An Afghan resistance alliance delegation may visit
several Asian countries--including Singapore, Malaysia,
Indonesia, and Bangladesh--before attending the United
Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in early November,
according to US Embassy reporting in these countries.
Plans for the tour apparently are still in the
preliminary stages. The US Embassy in Jakarta believes
that requests to receive the delegation will probably
be made to the prospective host governments by
COMMENT: These Asian countries--which have shown
support for the Afghan cause in the past--probably
would receive a resistance alliance delegation. Their
28 October 1986
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show of support for the resistance before the UNGA vote
next week on Afghanistan could help sustain support for
the resolution calling for the withdrawal of all
foreign troops from Afghanistan. It would also cause
concern to the Soviets, who have courted Third World
opinion on Afghanistan in recent weeks.
-- French Secretary of State for Human Rights
Claude Malhuret recently told the US Embassy in
Paris that France will finalize plans for
humanitarian aid to the Afghan resistance by the
end of October. Paris pledged increased support
for the resistance during Rabbani's visit in
June to France as spokesman for the Afghan
resistance alliance. Malhuret claims that
although the amount of assistance will be small,
the political gesture is important.
28 October 1986
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-- Afghan insurgents, using surface-to-air
missiles, shot down an MI-6 Hook helicopter on
17 October near Qandahar and an MI-24 Hind
helicopter near Jalalabad on 19 October. These
losses increase to six the number of Soviet and
Afghan aircraft that we can confirm have been
shot down by air defense missiles since 25
September.
major elements of the Soviet BMP-equipped
motorized rifle regiment normally stationed at
Konduz had returned to garrison. A truck- and
BTR-equipped motorized rifle regiment--deployed
from the USSR for the withdrawal--occupied the
installation from 7 September to 17 October.
-- Egyptian President Mubarak recently told the US
Ambassador that earlier conversations with a
Soviet official had left him with the impression
that the "Soviets do indeed wish to withdraw
completely" from Afghanistan. Mubarak
interpreted the Soviets' unwillngness to specify
a timetable for withdrawal as primarily a matter
of "saving face."
-- Zimbabwe's Assistant Secretary for International
Organizations recently commented to an official
of the US Embassy in Harare that he did not know
whether Afghanistan would open a diplomatic
mission in Harare. He noted, however, that
"there was nothing to prohibit it from doing
so."
-- The US Embassy in Islamabad says that the Afghan
resistance alliance delegation that will attend
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the UN General Assembly next week will include
representatives of the seven major resistance
parties. Only three resistance leaders of the
seven parties will be there, however.
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SOVA N 86-20102JX
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Afghanistan is an economic burden to the USSR and will
remain so through the end of this century. The Soviets
try to pay for strategic gains by robbing the country
of some of its resources, but the economic ledger will
remain negative not only for the Afghans but for the
USSR as well.
Scope of Exploration
From 1955 through 1979, the USSR spent around 500
million rubles on mineral resource exploration and
development in Afghanistan. By contrast, between 1960
and 1980, roughly 115 billion rubles were devoted to
such activities in the domestic fuel industries
alone. This means that from 1955 through 1979, Soviet
planners channeled perhaps 230 times more into their
domestic mineral resources than into those in
Afghanistan. In 1982, the USSR produced about 9
billion tons of minerals of all types, without counting
building materials, and for several crucial minerals,
its contribution ranged between one-fourth and one-
third of global output
Besides lapis lazuli, significant quantities of fine
emeralds, tourmaline and even some rubies have recently
appeared from Afghanistan on the world market. These
gems originate principally from the extremely rugged
northeastern parts of the country: emeralds chiefly
from the Panjsher Valley and pegmatite gems, such as
tourmaline, from the Nurestan region of Laghman and
Konar Provinces. The mining areas are accessible only
by foot. Emeralds occur at an elevation of 3,000 to
4,000 meters and up rough slopes of a 30- to 40-degree
angle. After blasting with dynamite to identify and
expose the host rock, mining is performed with picks
and shovels. Rubies come from the Sarowbi district
east of Kabul, though current supplies are small.
Given the location, inaccessibility, harsh climate and
extreme insecurity of all areas where gemstones occur,
the latter provide no benefit to the USSR, and are
unlikely to do so in this century. Mining is entirely
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in the hands of local tribesmen. The uncut crystals
are smuggled into Pakistan where most of the trade is
carried on
Metals and Strategic Minerals
The only large metal deposits located so far are iron
ore, copper and chromium. The high-quality hematites
of Kowtal-e Hajigak, 90 kilometers west of Kabul, are
found at an elevation of 3,500 to over 4,000 meters, in
an extremely inaccessible area. The two nearest cart-
tracks run 24 kilometers to the north and the south,
the former does link up with the Kabul-Dushanbe paved
road halfway to the Soviet border, and may be passable
to some motor vehicles during part of the year.
Although much smaller than the one of Kowtal-e Hajigak
and poorer in ferrous content, another deposit lies in
Badahkshan Province, close to the Soviet border
The Aynak copper deposit, only 30 kilometers southeast
of Kabul, is physically more accessible and is found at
an elevation of only 2,500 to 3,000 meters in less
rugged terrain. The metal content ranges from a low of
0.4 percent to 2.4 percent in the central portion
containing sulfide ores. With estimated copper
reserves of 6.1 million tons (but down to 4.4 million
if only ores with higher than 0.7 percent metal content
are considered), the deposit is one of the largest
concentrations of copper in Asia. Also noteworthy are
by-product minerals associated with copper, among which
cobalt and nickel are the most important. A large
chrome deposit, with estimated reserves of 180,000
tons, is found less than 60 kilometers southwest of
Kabul in relatively low elevations. Given the very
restricted distribution of this ferroalloy in the
world, this find is considered significant
These ores will not be a factor on the world mineral
market or even within the Soviet bloc. Exploitation of
metals requires a much larger labor force, more
elaborate processing facilities, and transport and
housing infrastructure than the production of oil and
gas. Without prior construction of railways, in
particular, the mining of metals in interior areas
cannot even be considered. In addition, the opening of
any mineral frontier by outside effort is always
contingent on alternative opportunities elsewhere.
Recoverable reserves of iron ore, or copper, or even
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chromium, are not in short supply in the USSR.
Given Gorbachev's emphasis on retooling and modernizing
existing enterprises--which are to receive 50 percent
of all investment by 1990, the chances of large-scale
ferrous and non-ferrous mineral development in central
Afghanistan in this century would be very low, even
with peace and political stability. The development of
rich mineral concentrations, among them the extremely
large Udokan copper deposits, along the new, and now
nearly operational, Baykal-Amar Railway has already
been postponed or shelved because of the reorientation
of investment policy. Although the Soviets established
a railhead across the Amu Darya at Termez and the
Kushka Darya at Kushka,
reports o railway construction to Kabul
o from the soviet border and from the Jeyretan iron
ore deposits are simply mistaken. Reports of a copper
smelter at Aynak also are likely to be incorrect.
Given the poor security conditions and difficult
terrain of the central part of the country, plus Soviet
capital requirements for the current Five Year Plan,
such activities would represent the height of strategic
and economic folly. In addition, Jeyretan iron ore
would have to be used entirely in Afghanistan, because
there are no blast furnaces existing or planned in
Soviet Central Asia and the nearest markets at
Karaganda and in the Urals are over 2,000 miles away.
Oil And Gas
Only hydrocarbons bring any benefit to the USSR.
Afghan natural gas helps to pay for the Soviet
occupation and the depletion of reserves robs
Afghanistan of its patrimony, but Afghan gas represents
a mere 0.5 percent of Soviet gas output. Hydrocarbons
occur within 90 kilometers of the Soviet border. Their
exploitation and transport require a far smaller labor
force and a much less elaborate infrastructure than
metal extraction. The petrol-rich area of northern
Afghanistan is, in fact, an extension of the Kopet Dag
Trough, a basin stretching from central Turkmenia south
across the border and eastward into southwest
Tadzhikistan. The sedimentary accumulation is deep,
but the Afghan portion of the basin is quite small in
area extent: 240 miles long, with an average width of
45 miles. As with the portion over the Soviet
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border, the basin is primarily gas-bearing
According to a World Bank document, most of the 9.9
million tons of "crude oil" produced in Afghanistan
from 1976 to 1977 (up from less than two million tons
in 1970), in fact, represent gas condensates and not
crude. And for several years, much of that condensate
was wasted
Total initial reserves of gas may have been near 100
billion metric meters, but the recoverable portion
amounted to only 73 billion
(Although
some expansion has probably occurred since 1979, the
rapid withdrawal of around 3.5 billion cubic meters per
year has now depleted half of these reserves. The
above authority reports only 7.2 million tons of crude
oil in place, which would give only 3.6 million tons of
recoverable reserves, with a 50-percent recovery
ratio. Some further discoveries of gas may yet take
place, but oil finds are expected only on the flanks of
natural gas reservoirs. Soviet geologists describe the
prospect of oil discoveries across the border as
"unlikely." Most of the natural gas is piped to the
USSR. Yet damage to the gas line by guerrillas has
interrupted the flow several times, proving that even
in this strategically and most secure region of the
country for the Soviets, resource exploitation remains
a risky business.
Coal
Coal is likely to remain of local significance, with no
effect on the economy of the USSR. Most coal reserves
are also found in northern Afghanistan, although not as
close to the Soviet border as the gas and oil. The
coal is of high-heat content and is used in industry,
the largest consumer being a cement plant. Coal
mining, however, is a highly labor intensive
activity. Significant expansion in production would
require a much larger labor force, political stability,
and sharply increased investment
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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