AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 9, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
et
Directorate M - -,, , " i .7x Top S "`msecrs`
Directorate of DOC NO k
~
Intelligence ?-'6 M S(,; - ,c ,Y10 fA
UIR '/ `/
Afghanistan Situation Report
9 September 1986
IMC/CE
NESA M 86-20141 JX
SOVA M 86-20080JX
September 25X1
Copy 1) Q fl
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
Soviet and Afghan forces initiated an offensive last
week against guerrilla forces in Paghman who have
sharply increased rocket attacks on Kabul. The
Soviets and Afghans concluded a two-week operation
in Herat in late August in yet another attempt to
oust insurgent forces from the city.
The recent capture of an Afghan regime garrison
Masood's forces shows that efforts to increase
pressure on Soviet and Afghan forces in the north
are making progress.
Gemstone mining in Afghanistan is thriving despite
fighting in the production areas, and at least two
insurgent groups obtain revenue from taxes on the
sale of the gems.
25X1
25X1
2 25X1
IN BRIEF 4
SIBGHATULLAH MDJADEDI: SPOKESMAN OF THE RESISTANCE 10
ALLIANCE
Sibghatullah Mojadedi, leader of the
traditionalist Jabha-i-Najat-i-Milli Afghanistan,
is unlikely to make significant headway in
achieving the goals he has set during his three-
25X1
25X1
9 September 1986 25X1
NESA M 86-20141JX
SOVA M 86-20080JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
CIA Internal Use Only
month tenure as spokesman of the resistance
alliance that ends 30 September. One of his main
goals is to open resistance alliance offices
This document was prepared by the Office of
Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the
Office of Soviet Analysis. Questions or comments
on the issues raised in the ouhlination chn,ilrl h
9 September 1986
MESA M 86-20141JX
SOYA M 86-20080JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
Bukhert.
Chardzhou'l
?Dal'eh-ye
Now
?Maymanah
Chaghcharin
O
Tarin
o Kowt
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
T ei e
r
sal-g'
ChirikrMahmgde,
ir
Bamio O Ri YY
rarl art eiq
r~
arlam
e
ht
pBaghlin yey
'Pol-e Khomri
. 0101
j
,r c
Kewt e * ?roJal3 -bad
Kab
FFeyzibid
~Tiloggn Eshkisheni
Cease-F r
r ; -rteZ /
Afghanistan
International boundary
??- Province boundary
* National capital
0 Province capital
Railroad
Road
0 50 100 150 200 Kilometers
0 50 100 150 200 Miles
9 September 1986
NESA M 86-20141JX
SOVA M 86-20080JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
FIGHTING INTENSIFIES IN PAGHMAN
A major Soviet and Afghan offensive--involving air,
artillery, and ground assaults--is under way in the
Paghman area, according to the US Embassy in Kabul.
The operation began last Thursday with an intense
artillery and multiple rocket launcher bombardment.
Termed by Embassy sources as one of the largest this
summer in the capital region, the operation is an
attempt to subdue resistance forces that have been
launching frequent rocket attacks on Kabul, probably
including the strike on the Afghan surface-to-air
missile support facility. Insurgent units from Vardak
Province reportedly have joined with Paghman-based
resistance forces in the fi hting, according to US
Embassy sources.
The combined Soviet and Afghan combat operation in the 25X1
Herat area, in progress since mid-August, conclu
late last month.
25X1
25X1
at least 6'uu Soviet combat and combat support vehicles
at Herat preparing to return to Shindand at the
conclusion of the offensive. These included a minimum
of six batteries of field artillery and multiple rocket
launchers. Although the regime claims to have killed a
large number of insurgents and destroyed vast amounts
of weapons and ammunition cached in the hillsides
around Herat in the most recent operation, US Embassy
sources report that insurgent forces retook the old
city portion of Herat for the third time this summer.
GOVERNMENT GARRISON FALLS TO INSURGENTS
The recent capture of a government garrison by
resistance leader Masood's forces demonstrates that the
insurgency's strength in the north is rowinL'
9 September 1986
NESA M 86-20141JX
SOVA M 86-20080JX
2.5X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
Soviet and Afghan operations in the northern provinces
have had little impact on Masood's military
capabilities or strategy. Masood's forces' increasing
strength may make it difficult for Moscow to select a
motorized rifle regiment from the north as one of the
six regiments slated by Soviet leader Gorbachev's for
withdrawal at yearend.
Most of the gemstone mines in Afghanistan are located
in resistance-controlled areas. Since the beginning of
the war, the trade in these gems--primarily lapis
lazuli, emeralds, tourmaline, kunzite, and rubies--has
shifted from Kabul to Pakistan. Uncut stones are
smuggled into Pakistan for marketing in Peshawar and,
when exported, bear a certificate of origin from
Pakistan, according to the US Consulate in Peshawar.
COMMENT: Despite widespread fighting in areas of main
production, gemstone mining is thriving.
production is at a higher level than before
the war. Taxes on the sale of gems are an important
source of finance for some insurgent groups, accounting
for as much as one-third of their total income,
according to press reports. Gemstone mining
particularly benefits the Jamiat-i-Islami and the Hizbi
Islami (Gulbuddin).
9 September 1986 25X1
MESA M 86-20141JX
SOYA M 86-20080JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
-- UNICEF apparently is making plans to operate its
child immunization program in Afghanistan only
through the Afghan Government, according to the
US Embassy in Islamabad. UNICEF previously
inferred that it would work with resistance
groups in implementing the program in areas not
controlled by the regime. UN projects carried
out in the provinces under the auspices of the
Afghan Government would redound to the benefit
of the Kabul regime.
-- The Government of Pakistan recently approved
health and education projects for Afghans inside
Afghanistan, according to the US Consulate in
Peshawar. The projects, due to start in late
September, will be under the jurisdiction of the
Afghan Alliance Health and Education
Committees. The Education Committee hopes the
programs will help counteract the influence of
the conservative Wahhabi sect on Afghan
education programs.
-- Canada has recently decided to begin a modest,
cross-border, humanitarian assistance program
for Afghans, according to the US Embassy in
Islamabad. It has allocated $50,000 for the
program this fiscal year and plans to double the
funding next year.
-- The Kabul Government plans to relocate 30,000
families from the eastern border areas of
Afghanistan to the sparsely settled western
provinces, according to the US Embassy in
Kabul. A top regime official claims that over-
population and surplus labor motivated the
decision. He maintains the regime will not use
force in the resettlement. The proposal is part
of Kabul's effort to depopulate key regions in
order to undercut the insurgents' base of
support and shut down their supply routes from
Pakistan. Forcible relocation would probably
prompt many of those affected to flee to
-- Because of the incidence of hepatitis among
9 September 1986
NESA M 86-20141JX
SOYA M 86-20080JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
interested in purchasing Belgian-made hepa-
titis B vaccines.
Soviet efforts to develop
hepatitis vaccines conrnercially have failed.
explosions in
August at an Afghan surface-to-air missile
support facility in western Kabul destroyed
twenty-two ammunition and equipment storage
buildings and damaged several other buildings.
This is the second known explosion at an
ammunition storage facility in the past two
months. A series of explosions at a Soviet
ammunition dump at Bagram airfield in mid-July
destroyed an estimated 3,000 metric tons of
ammunition. The guerrillas have claimed
responsibility for both attacks.
-- The final communique of the Eighth Nonaligned
Movement (NAM) summit in Harare called for the
withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan.
According to press reports, the declaration
underscored the need to put into effect the "New
Delhi proposal" on Afghanistan--adopted at a NAZI
conference in 1981--that urged a political
settlement on the basis of the withdrawal of
foreign forces.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
9 September 1986 25X1
NESA M 86-20141JX
SOVA M 86-20080JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
Iq
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9 25X1
General Secretary Najibullah has replaced
President Babrak Karmal as the supreme commander
of the armed forces, according to US Embassy and
press reporting. The move further secures
Najibullah's position against challengers. It
also reflects the regime's cerns about the
Army's performance.
-- Afghan Prime Minister Keshtmand visited
Ethiopia, Libya, Bulgaria, and the USSR on his
return trip to Kabul from the Nonaligned
Movement summit in Harare, according to press
reports. While in Zimbabwe, Keshtmand also
conferred with Iraqi, Syrian, North Korean.
Angolan, and South Yemeni officials.
-- Abdul Wali Khan, veteran Pakistani regional
leader and head of the newly formed Awami
National Party, met with President Babrak Karmal
in Kabul on 6 September, according to press
reports. Wali Khan was in Moscow last month and
has publicly endorsed Soviet leader Gorbachev's
plans for withdrawing six Soviet regiments from
Afghanistan. Long a vocal critic of Pakistan's
Afghan policy, he probably hopes that his pro-
9 September 1986
NESA M 86-20141JX
SOYA M 86-20080JX
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
Soviet and Afghan regime stance will yield
financial and material support for his new
leftist party.
9 September 1986 25X1
NESA M 86-20141JX
SOVA M 86-20080JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
SIBGHATULLAH MDJADEDI: SPOKESMAN OF THE RESISTANCE ALLIANCE
Sibghatullah Mojadedi, the leader of the traditionalist
Jabha-i-Najat-i-Milli Afghanistan (the Afghanistan
National Liberation Front or ANLF), began a three-month
term as spokesman of the Afghan resistance alliance in
July. Mojadedi advocates insurgent unity and the
convening of a Loya Jirga (grand tribal council) to
form a resistance government-in-exile. While
spokesman, he would like to establish alliance offices
abroad--especially in New York and Jeddah--and
streamline the alliance bureaucracy. Mojadedi's
accomplishments, however, will probably he limited by
ighting,
his
A Mullah, Not a Soldier
According to Western scholars, Mojadedi, who is 60
years old, is a leading Islamic philosopher and
scholar. He holds a graduate degree in Islamic law
from the prestigious Al-Azhar University in Cairo.
During the 1950s, he taught theology at two secondary
schools in Kabul and was a professor of Islamic
jurisprudence at Kabul University. From 1974 until
1978, Mojadedi headed the Islamic Center of Scandinavia
in Copenhagen.
Mojadedi studied the Naqshbandi order of Sufism, which
his family has headed for over a century. The nearly 3
million Afghan sect members regard Mojadedi as the
leader of a revered dynasty. (Some sources claim that
Mojadedi is a direct descendant of Umar, the second
caliph). In addition, his father and great uncle, both
religious scholars, were honored for their efforts in
fighting the British in 1919. As a result, the family
added prestige and, through a royal reward, great
wealth to its religious credentials.
Small and Ineffective Forces
The ANLF is probably the smallest and least effective
of the Peshawar-based resistance groups. Although
9 September 1986
NESA M 86-20141JX
SOVA M 86-20080JX
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
2 Al
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
Mojadedi's family claims to lead up to 40,000 armed men
operating from bases in Kabul city and in Lowgar,
Nangarhar, Qandahar or Konarha Provinces, we believe
that the ANLF has relatively few supporters scattered
in the irrmediate area of the Pakistani border.
report that the ANLF has often claimed credit
other groups' military successes.
Most of the ANLF's troubles in the field can be traced
to poor administration in its
headquarters in Peshawar. Logistic snarls keep man
supplies from reaching the battlefield.
Mojadedi 's
amily, which holds most of
the decisionmaking power within the organization, has
been accused of questionable financial dealings and
selling weapons for personal profit, although Mojadedi
has not been personally implicated in any wrongdoing.
25X1
25X1
2 Al
25X1
25X1
2bX1:1
25X1
Just About Anything But Communism
Mojadedi has a long history of anti-Communist and anti-
Soviet activities. In 1959 he was arrested for
allegedly plotting to assassinate Soviet leader Nikita
Khrushchev, who was on an official visit to Kabul. He
subsequently served a four-year prison term--three
years of which he spent in solitary confinement. From
his release until 1974, when he fled the country for
Denmark, he actively organized street demonstrations
against Communism, while serving as a translator at the
Saudi Arabian Embassy. In 1972 he formed the secret
Jamiat al-Ulami Mohamnadi as an Islamic counterweight
to growing Communist influence in Kabul. While in
self-imposed exile, Mojadedi traveled around the Middle
East trying to mobilize opposition to the leftist
regime of MoharrTnad Daoud.
Although Mojadedi has never hesitated to use Islam as a
political tool, he opposes the establishment in
Afghanistan of an Islamic republic modeled after
Iran. According to US officials in Peshawar, he has
labeled Gulhuddin Hekmatyar, leader of a Hizbi Islami
faction, and Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, the head of the
9 September 1986
NESA M 86-20141JX
SOVA M 86-20080JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
Ittihad-i-Islami Barai Azadi Afghanistan (the Islamic
Union for the Liberation of Afghanistan), as fanatics
for their support of a Khomeini-style government. He
personally favors a nonaligned democracy based on
Islamic and traditional Afghan values and advocates
convening a Loya Jirga--a traditional form of self rule
based on popular representation--to establish the
future government of Afghanistan.
Mojadedi is ambivalent about a future role for former
King Zahir Shah, to whom he is distantly related
through his second wife. In 1984, Mojadedi told US
officials that the King's past mistakes had led to the
present political chaos and that the monarchy was an
anachronism. Mojadedi has since said that the King is
still popular among his former subjects and could serve
as a rallying point for the rivalry-plagued
The Spokesman: Promoting Unity
Mojadedi stresses the need for unity within the
resistance. Since the beginning of the war, he has
participated in every alliance created by the moderate
factions, and from 1982 until 1985 served as chairman
of the three-party moderate alliance (Islamic Unity of
Afghan Mujahidin). Although Mojadedi insists that
without solidarity the cause may be lost, we believe
that he realizes an alliance is also in his best
interests. In view of the ANLF's poor military and
financial condition, the unity group provides Mojadedi
with more exposure and power than he would otherwise
have and gives him increased access to funding and
logistic aid.
But working with the alliance's fundamentalists,
particularly Gulbuddin and Sayyaf, has not been easy
for Mojadedi. In addition to their differences over
the form of a post-Comnunist government in Afghanistan,
they are at odds over the nature of the present
coalition. Mojadedi maintains that Gulbuddin and
Sayyaf have little regard for unity and are a hindrance
by refusing to cooperate with it. He blames their
intransigence upon their allegedly close
ties with Khomeini and Libyan leader Qadhafi. Mojadedi
is especially hostile toward Gulbuddin, whom he branded
as the "world's biggest terrorist" and accused of
assassinating fellow resistance commanders.
9 September 1986
NESA M 86-20141JX
SOYA M 86-20080JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
Pro-US Attitude
Mojadedi looks favorably upon the US. He wants the US
to provide more humanitarian and military aid to the
resistance in general, and the ANLF specifically, and
to increase diplomatic pressure upon the Soviet Union
to pull out of Afghanistan. After his trip to
Washington, D.C. in June 1986, Mojadedi commented that
he appreciated meeting President Reagan and was
impressed with his knowledge of the resistance
effort. He also has said that as spokesman he intends
to maintain close contact with the US.
As Spokesman: A Look into the Crystal Ball
Mojadedi, no stranger to the limelight, will probably
stress public relations during his tenure as
spokesman. He is fluent in English and Arabic and
speaks some German and Urdu. He is an experienced
public speaker and on occasion has delivered powerful
and moving speeches. A personable man, he enjoys
giving press interviews; he even appeared in 1982 on
the US evangelical television program "The 700 Club".
Mojadedi's goals of opening offices abroad,
consolidating the work of alliance committees, and
promoting an assembly to create a government-in-exile
will probably be unfulfilled. According to the US
Embassy in Islamabad, Sayyaf and Gulbuddin are opposed
to opening an alliance office in Jeddah. They also
disagree with Mojadedi and the traditionalists over the
method of selecting representatives for the Loya Jirga
and relations with the US. More importantly, Mojadedi
lacks the political power and savvy to influence the
other alliance leaders. Therefore, Mojadedi will
probably move slowly toward his objectives
25X1
25X1
9 September 1986 25X1
MESA M 86-20141JX
SOVA M 86-20080JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
9 September 1986
NESA M 86-20141JX
SOYA M 86-20080JX
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9
Top Secret
ILLEGIB
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000303050001-9