(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000302430001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 28, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: May 21, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

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F/1&4,25X1
SUBJECT: India: Gandhi's
Internal Distribution:
1 - DDI
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - C/PES
1 - D/NESA
1 DD/NESA
1 - C/PPS
1 - C/SO/D/NESA
1 - C/PG/D/NESA
1 - C/AI/D/NESA
1 - C/IA/D/NESA
1 - C/SO/S/NESA
1 - C/SO/P/NESA
1 - C/SO/A/NESA
1 - DDO/NE
1 - DDO/NE
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - PDB Staff
1 - NID Staff
6 - CPAS/IMD/CB
2 - NESA/PS
2 - NESA SO IS Branch
DDI/NESA/SO/S
Cabinet Changes
DATE
DOC NO Nt3A / 1 8G- ~o075
OCR ,2
P&PD I
(21 May 86)
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Central Intelligence Agency
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
21 May 1986
INDIA: GANDHI'S CABINET CHANGES
SUMMARY
Prime Minister Gandhi's recent expansion and reshuffle
of his cabinet suggests he is trying to arrest the drift in
fnrAinn anA Anmacli- affairs
His removal ot Foreign Min-11-ster
Bhagat, who criticized US actions against Libya, probably is 25X6
intended in part to smooth relations with Washington. New
Foreign Minister P. Shiv Shankar also holds the Commerce
portfolio and may have been selected to give renewed
emphasis to Rajiv's goal of acquiring western technology.
The Prime Minister appointed Sikhs to head the Home and
Agriculture Ministries, probably to demonstrate New Delhi's
support for moderate Sikhs. 25X1
This memorandum was prepared byl Ithe Office of
Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis in response to a request
from the Department of Defense. Information as of 19 May 1986
was used in its preparation. Comments and queries may be
addressed to the Chief, South Asia Division, NESA,
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INDIA: GANDHI'S CABINET CHANGES I 25X1
Remedying Problems in the Foreign Policy Establishment
Gandhi's decision to drop Foreign Minister Bhagat is one of
several recent moves intended in our judgment to make the Indian
foreign policy establishment more responsive to his agenda. The
US Embassy reports that Bhagat was inclined to tell audiences
what they wanted to hear rather than the message Gandhi wanted
delivered. Bhagat led the Nonaligned Movement delegation to
Tripoli and the United Nations in New York that vehemently
criticized US airstrikes against Libya. In contrast, Gandhi in a
speech to the Indian parliament emphasized the threat of
international terrorism and urged that the United States use its
diplomatic leverage to combat it. Gandhi probably hopes, in our
view, that Bhagat's removal will help repair the damage the Prime
Minister believes has been done to Indo-US relations by the NAM
initiative.
Gandhi's selection of Shankar as Foreign Minister elevates a
diplomat with an economic background to deal with the technology
transfer and international financial issues that are high among
the Prime Minister's foreign policy concerns. Shankar will
retain his commerce portfolio in Rajiv's cabinet. We expect
Shankar to be charged with removing roadblocks on the Indian side
to expansion of high technology ties with the United States.
Given his experience, we expect him to bring a pragmatic approach
to this task.
We believe Gandhi also may have selected Shankar because he
does not belong to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA)
establishment. The Indian foreign policy bureaucracy has
consistently dragged its feet on the Prime minister's efforts to
bring a conciliatory tone to Indian diplomacy and to advance
India's economic interests through foreign policy, according to
Embassy reports. MEA officials in Delhi and Indian diplomats
abroad have been slow to give up the confrontational diplomacy
practiced under Indira Gandhi for a decade and quick to criticize
Rajiv as being naive and too trusting of India's neighbors and
the United States. In our judgment, MEA officials are
comfortable with traditional Indian foreign policy themes
stressing anticolonialism, socialism, and north-south relations--
themes that the Soviets echo in international circles. Shankar,
in contrast to Bhagat, has carried Gandhi's conciliatory message
to India's neighbors and shown little affinity for the
ideological positions of his subordinates in the MEA.
Shankar's work as a lawyer, Congress Party functionary, and
diplomatic emissary pleased both Indira and Rajiv Gandhi. As a
lawyer, Shankar earned the Gandhi family's gratitude when he
successfully defended Indira Gandhi against her political
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opponents during the 1975-76 emergency period. He has served
Rajiv as a troubleshooter on three assignments in Asia--to China
apparently to arrange a Gandhi visit to Beijing, to Nepal to
smooth ruffled Nepalese feathers following terrorist bombings in
Kathmandu last summer, and to Bangladesh to discuss sensitive
water sharing issues. Rajiv also earlier appointed Shankar to be
Chairman of the Congress Party's Foreign Affairs department and
head the Friends of the Soviet Union Committee. The Friends
group was established by Indira Gandhi in 1980 as a Congress
party sponsored alternative to organizations established by the
Communist Party of India or affilitated with the Moscow-backed
World Peace Council. Despite his role as head of this committee,
we do not believe that Shankar has strong personal views on New
Delhi's relations with Moscow and we expect he will pursue
Gandhi's pragmatic efforts to balance relations with Moscow and
Washington.
Gandhi has made other changes in recent weeks that, in our
judgment, reflect his continuing displeasure with the MEA:
-- He expanded his cabinet foreign policy team by naming a
new Minister of State for External Affairs, Eduardo
Faleiro, a member of Parliament from Goa, to serve as a
second deputy to Shankar. The US Embassy speculates that
Gandhi added Faleiro to improve his administration's
ability to handle questions in Parliament, a job that the
other deputy, K. R. Narayanan--an MEA career
professional--has performed poorly.
-- Gandhi has replaced the Policy Planning Commission in the
MEA with a Policy Advisory Commission that will report
directly to the Prime Minister's office.
Cultivating Sikh Moderate Support
Gandhi has installed Sikhs at the heads of the Home
(Interior) and Agriculture ministries to help New Delhi's
credibility with Sikh moderates in and out of Punjab, according
to Embassy reports. He moved Buta Singh from Agriculture to the
Home ministry where he will serve as the senior official
responsible for internal security issues. Although we expect
Gandhi and Arun Nehru, a deputy in the Home Ministry, to continue
to make all important decisions on Sikh matters, Buta's
appointment, in our judgment, is a signal that Gandhi believes
Sikhs in the military and other security forces merit public
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trust. Gandhi named another Sikh, Gurdail Singh Dillon, to head
the Agriculture Ministry--in our judgment a recognition of the
Punjabi Sikhs' important contributions to the success of Indian
agriculture.
The appointments are among several moves Gandhi has made
this spring to reconcile alienated Sikhs nationwide:
-- He has ordered prompt settlement of the claims for
compensation from Sikh victims of Hindu violence in the
riots after Indira Gandhi's assassination, according to
Indian press reports.
-- He set a June deadline for final resolution of the
territorial issues that blocked the transfer of
Chandigarh to Punjab.
-- He revived the National Integration Council involving
opposition politicians as well as Sikh elites that has
issued public statements supporting the moderate Sikh
government in Punjab.
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SUBJECT: India: Gandhi's Cabinet Changes
Captain Edward Louis Christensen, USN
Chief, South Asian Regional Plans and Policy Branch
Department of Defense, Room 2E973, Pentagon
Dr. Stephen P. Cohen
Policy Planning Staff
Department of State, Room 7303
Mr. Donald Gregg
Assistant to the Vice President
for National Security Affairs
Room 381, Executive Office Building
Mr. Byron Jackson
Office of Intelligence Liaison
Department of Commerce, Room 6854
Mr. Ronald D. Lorton
Chief, South Asia Division
Bureau of Intelligence and Research
Department of State, Room 4636A
Mr. Michael MacMurray
Special Assistant for South Asia
International Security Affairs
Department of State, Room 4D765, Pentagon
Mr. Marc Palevitz
Special Assistant for South Asia
International Security Affairs
Near Eastern-South Asian Affairs
Department of Defense, Room 4D765
Pentagon
Mr. Grant Smith
Director, INS
Bureau of Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs
Department of State, Room 5251
Mr. Darnell Whitt
Intelligence Adviser to the Under Secretary
of Defense for Policy, Department of Defense
Room 4D840, Pentagon
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