AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000202160001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 6, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 8, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

I I I I
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000202160001-9 .
Directorate of
Intelligence
Afghanistan Situation Report
8 April 1986
NESA M 86-20048CX
4zr)VA 2n 4CX
8 April 198
Copy n R 1
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/23: CIA-RDP86T01017R000202160001-9
AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT
Fighting intensified this week in Paktia.Province
between regime forces and the Hizbi Islami
(Khalis) insurgent group. Other clashes occurred
southeast of Kabul, as, well as in Oandahar and
Nangarhar Provinces.
Babrak Karmal's recent address to the Central
Committee of the People's Democratic Party of
Afghanistan--reaffirming the regime's commitment
to broadening the social base of the revolution--
was a veiled warning to those opposed to bringing
non-PDPA members into the government.
During the past several weeks, several prisoner
exchanges were negotiated between the insurgents
and the Soviets and Afghan regime. The Soviets
and Kabul regime see exchanges as a useful tool to
broaden popular support.
SOVIET SU-24 STRIKE AIRCRAFT DEPLOY TO TURKESTAN
A squadron of Soviet SU-24 strike aircraft that
has deployed to Turkestan could enhance Soviet
capabilities for air operations in Afghanistan
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PERSPECTIVE
THE WAR IN MARCH I 7
Afghan Army troops conducted more independent
combat operations during March, while combined
Soviet-Afghan forces continued efforts to block
insurgent resupply and infiltration. Preparations
are under way for the spring offensives.
This document is prepared weekly by the Office of
Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the
Office of Soviet Analysis.
8 April 1986
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International boundary
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Road
8 April 1986
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THE WAR HEATS UP
Press reports indicate heavy fighting in Paktia
Province on 6 and 7 April between regime forces and
members of the Hizbi Islami (Khalis) insurgent grou
defending their base near Zhawar Kandao.
the Soviets
had established a command post at Gardeyz. This may ha
a prelude to another sweep toward Ali Kheyl
combat operations in early March.
which last conducted
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BABRAK SPEECH URGES COMPROMISE
Babrak Karmal's address to the People's Democratic
Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) Central Committee on
27 March reaffirmed his commitment to broadening the
social base of the revolution. It reiterated themes of
last fall--the regime's need to build its armed forces,
win the loyalty of the border tribes, and open the
government to non-party members and representatives of
the various tribes, ethnic groups, and classes. At the
same time, Babrak criticized corrupt and ineffective
8 April 1986
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party officials and conceded that his government's
aggressive campaign to enlarge the armed forces had
been only "implemented partially" and "needs more
work." He noted that the military commissioner of
Qandahar had been removed for incompetence. Citing
Lenin, Babrak added, "We do not have the right and must
not reject compromise, provided it ends in the major
aim, the establishment of nationwide peace and
security."
Comment: The speech was a veiled warning to elements
in the party who have been resisting the Soviet-
instigated campaign to bring non-party members into the
government. Rank-and-file PDPA members are almost
certainly concerned that Moscow's efforts to improve
the public image of the Babrak regime are preliminary
to a negotiated settlement that would sacrifice the
party's and their own personal interests. Babrak's
admission that army recruitment drives are falling
short of their goals underscores the nearly impossible
task he faces in trying to expand the armed forces.
During the past several weeks, several prisoner
exchanges were being negotiated in Afghanistan.
Comment: The flurry of negotiations is unusual. From
the Kabul regime's viewpoint, prisoner exchanges are
intended primarily to further its objective of
broadening popular support. The willingness of some
insurgents to deal with regime officials probably is
seen as an encouraging development by Kabul; most
guerrillas previously would discuss prisoner exchanges
only with the Soviets. The insurgents' decision to
negotiate with Kabul probably was an exceptional case
and does not represent a shift in their longstanding
policy on negotiations, however.
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TOP SFCR- T
SOVIET SU-24 STRIKE AIRCRAFT DEPLOY TO TURKESTAN
at least one
squadron of SU-24 Fencer B/C strike aircraft in a
dispersal area at Karshi/Khanabad airfield in
Turkestan. Elements of the Fencer squadr
observed at the airfield in early January
Comment: The arrangements suggest that SU-24s will
replace the MIG-23 interceptor regiment currently
deployed there. Although there is no evidence that the
Fencer unit at Karshi/Khanabad will be used in
Afghanistan, the SU-24s could enhance the Soviets'
capabilities for strike operations in Afghanistan. The
SU-24's optically guided AS-14 air-to-surface missiles
can be fired at targets 10-km distant, a feature which
could limit the effectiveness of insurgent air
defenses. Moreover, the aircraft's payload, avionics,
and combat radius would enhance abilities to deliver
more ordnance with greater accuracy.
pack animals.
World Concern, a private voluntary organization,
has proposed establishing a veterinary training
program in Pakistan for Afghans. Plans call for
training approximately 100 Afghans--to be selected
in cooperation with the resistance alliance--during
the first year and providing them with 2,400 pack
animals and supplies for animal health programs
inside Afghanistan. The program could be a boon
for insurgent logistics, which depend heavily on
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-- The Soviet Union and the Kabul regime signed a
protocol on 19 February to have construction units
repair roads north of Kabul,
The protocol indicates Moscow's
concern with the badly deteriorating road system
and the limited ability of the Afghan Government to
provide basic services.
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-- Independent border brigades and battalions,
previously under the control of the Afghan Ministry
of Defense, are now directly under the command of
Khad (Ministry of State Security), 25X1
The transfer of responsibility 25X1
implies a continuing dimunition of the power and
influence of the Khalqi-dominated Defense Ministry,
to the benefit of Parchami elements in the
government. 25X1
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Soviet and Afghan forces continued efforts to stem
insurgent resupply and reinforcement activity during
the last month of winter. Poor weather occasionally
interfered with operations, mostly curbing air support
from Bagram. The Afghan Army completed another series
of semi-independent combat operations--their largest
yet--in the vicinity of Jalalabad, Gardeyz, and Herat--
evidently without encountering significant resistance,
although insurgent activities were at a moderate level
during the month. The guerrillas probably have
sufficient supplies to support the expected upsurge in
fighting in early spring.
Widespread Soviet Operations Continue
Soviet operations in three border provinces--Paktia,
Nangarhar, and Gardeyz--focused largely on attempting
to cut guerrilla supply routes.
the US Embassy in Kabul reported that Soviet units from
Kabul conducted a 5-day sweep in the Lowqar Valle
along the road to Ghazni starting on 5 March.
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Soviet forces continued operations around Qandahar cit
in early March
regime to bring the city under control has been a major
frustration for them. According to the US Embassy in
Kabul, the Soviets strafed sections of the city during
March and subse uentl conducted house-to-house
searches. claims that a "security
belt"--akin to the one around Kabul--is now being
The inability of the Soviets and Afghan
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planned for Qandahar in an attempt to "starve" the
insurgency in the city.
Soviet and Afghan forces made no appreciable headway
during March against the insurgents in the Herat
area. US Embassy in Kabul claim that
fighting west ot the city was particularly heavy early
in the month.
Independent Afghan Army Operations
Afghan Army units increased their role in combat
operations during March in the vicinity of Jalalabad,
Gardeyz, and Herat.
Soviet involvement was limited to perimeter
security and air, artillery, and advisory support. The
Kabul regime has come under pressure this year to
undertake more quasi-independent operations, and the
combat sweeps during March are the largest yet. There
is little evidence about the course of the combat
sweeps, but the Afghan units evidently encountered no
sustained resistance from guerrilla forces. Still, the
Afghan military probably is not yet ready to assume a
leading role in ground operations.
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Insurgents Resurgent
During March, insurgent forces pressured several Afghan
Army garrisons. The US Embassy in Kabul reported that
the Afghan Army garrison at All Kheyl was surrounded in
late March and that the regime sent reinforcements to
bolster the defenses-of the garrison.
the US Embassy in Kabul also indicate
that insurgents increased harassment of Afghan border and
army garrisons along the northern boundary of the Spin
Gar mountains in Nangarhar Province. In mid-March,
Panjsher Valley insurgents launched several attacks
against Soviet and Afghan garrisons at Anawa, Bazarak and
Rokhah but with inconclusive results, according to US
Embassy sources. In addition, an Afghan column was
attacked near Gardeyz on 16 March the
capture of 35 Afghan troops.
Outlook
Because of the apparent Soviet and Afghan failure to
curtail significantly insurgent infiltration and resupply
activity this winter, the insurgents probably are
adequately equipped to sustain at least the opening
phases of the spring campaign. Preparations for that
fighting are now under way.
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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