(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T01017R000201820001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: January 12, 2017
• Document Release Date: January 28, 2011
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: January 29, 1986
• Content Type: REPORT

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Aaron Miller
S/P/State
Rn. 7330 State Dept.
Jack Covey
NSC
Rm. 351 Old EOB
Sandra Charles
ISA/NESA/DOD
Rn. 4D765 Pentagon
Robert Pelletreau
DASD/NESA/DOD
Rm. 4D765 Pentagon
Internal Distribution
DDI
NIO/NESA
C/PES
D/NESA
D/OGI
C/OGI/FSIC/SA
C/NESA/IA
DC/NESA/IA/I
DDO/NE
PDB Staff
CPAS/IMC/CB
NESA/FPS
C/NESA/PPS
C%NESA/AI
C/NESA/PG
DDI/ME.SAJIA
/ - f /e
Doc - Q C) / /
OCR
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/ --rI"4c
(,29Jan86)
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Central intelligence Agency
29 January 1986
THE TEMPLE MOUNT INCIDENTS: THE POTENTIAL FOR ESCALATION
SUMMARY
Intense Muslim reactions to recent confrontations
between Jews and Muslims on Jerusalem's Temple Mount
illustrate the explosive nature of sensitive religious issues
in the Middle East, and their potential for damaging US
interests. Although emotions seem to have cooled in
Jerusalem, Arab states have convened special meetings of the
Islamic Conference's Jerusalem Committee and the UN Security
Council to debate the incidents. A US veto of an
Islamic-sponsored UNSC resolution on the Temple Mount
incidents would advance Libya's anti-American campai n and
could trigger anti-US violence in Muslim countries.
This paper was prepared byl (Issues
Branch, Issues and Applications Division, Office of Near East and South
Asian Analysis. Information as of 29 January 1986 was used in preparing
this report. Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to the
Chief, Issues and Applications Division, NESA
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Earlier this month, a series of incidents on Jerusalem's Temple Mount
between Israeli Knesset members and Muslim officials led to clashes between
Israeli police and Arab crowds and has renewed debate on the issue of
sovereignty over the Temple Mount, a holy site for Muslims, Jews, and
Christians alike.*
Reverberations from Temple Mount
Despite the Israeli government's moderate response to the incidents,
statements by some Israelis have helped spread the significance beyond its
local confines. For example, Deputy Prime Minister David Levy, in a speech
in Hebron, remarked, "If in these days, a Jew who wraps himself in a prayer
shawl on the Temple Mount is called a provocateur, then we are all
provocateurs. This is our country."
The incidents have inflamed Arab fears that their free access to
Islam's third holiest site is being eroded. The US Consulate in Jerusalem
reports that most local Arabs recognize there is no broad Israeli
conspiracy to take over the Temple Mount, and their anger is focused on a
few extremist Zionist organizations and personalities. The Arabs fear,
however, that if the extremists push hard enough, Tel Aviv will eventually
give in to them and permanently alter the status quo on the Temple Mount.
The consequences of the incidents have resounded far beyond Jerusalem:
--Editorials in the Jordanian press have described the incidents as
efforts by Zionist extremists to "storm" Muslim shrines.
--The Egyptian and Saudi press carried inflammatory banner headlines
on the Temple Mount events.
--PLO leader Arafat, speaking at the special meeting of the Islamic
Conference on Jerusalem, accused Israel of repeated crimes against
Muslims and of preparing to erase the Arab identity of Jerusalem and
destroy Christian and Muslim holy sites.
--The Syrian press called the "desecration" of the holy sites a part
of a wider US-Israeli conspiracy. In addition, Syrian officials
urged India as a leader of the Nonaligned Movement to take a strong
stand on the issue.
--Indonesian Foreign Minister Mochtar claimed credit for the Islamic
Conference resolution condemning "blatant Israeli activities."
--The Iranian Press Agency headlined "Zionists Renew Attempts to
Destroy al-Aqsa."
*See Annex for a chronology of events on the Temple Mount.
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Islamic Conference Condemnations
The 45-member Islamic Conference, which was holding its annual meeting
in Morocco when the Temple Mount incidents began, denounced the events as
"odious, perfidious, and perpetual aggression against al-Aqsa mosque,"
carried out with the help of the Israeli authorities. The Conference
warned Israel of dire consequences, and noted that Islamic states are
compelled to protect their holy places.
A special meeting of the Conference's 17-member Jerusalem committee,
held on 21-22 January in Marrakesh, widened the scope of the issue to
include political support for the Palestinian people. Moroccan King
Hassan, the Chairman of the Conference, called for redoubled Islamic
support for Palestinians being forced from their land and holy places in
the occupied territories and for preserving the Arab-Islamic nature of
Jerusalem. The committee endorsed a number of actions to keep the issue
alive:
--Messages were sent to Pope John Paul II, the Patriarch of the
Orthodox Church, and leaders of other Christian churches to make
them aware of the violations in Jerusalem and the occupied
territories.
--Islamic Conference Secretary General Pirzada has been dispatched to
the UN to take part in the debate over the Temple Mount incidents.
--Sermons on 31 January in all mosques world-wide will be devoted to
"Zionist plans to destroy the al-Aqsa mosque, and to change
Jerusalem's Arab and Islamic nature."
--A call will be issued for work stoppage throughout the Muslim world
on 3 February to protest Israeli violations of al-Aqsa and other
mosques in the occupied territories.
The UN Security Council Debate
Islamic country UN members have triggered a Security Council meeting
on the Temple Mount incidents and are pushing for a resolution criticizing
Israel. King Hassan has sent a letter to the United Nations encouraging
broad Islamic participation in the debate on the Temple Mount complaints
that seems aimed at transforming the issue from an Arab-Israeli dispute
into a Muslim-Jewish confrontation, according to the USUN mission. In his
letter, the King warned the West that the incidents "might
provoke... legitimate but uncontrollable reaction of revolt, with unforeseen
and incalculable consequences."
Muslim states friendly to the United States fear that a US veto of the
resolution will prompt anti-US violence in their countries, and are
attempting to tone down the resolution. Despite King Hassan's letter, the
Moroccans appear to have taken the lead at the UN in seeking a compromise.
Moderates warn, however, that the emotional nature of the issue will make
it difficult to agree upon wording acceptable to the United States:
I
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--Jordanian Prime Minister Rifai said Amman would back a substantive
resolution that the United States would veto rather than support a
meaningless and vague document, according to the US Embassy in
Amman.
--Saudi Arabia indicated that its position as protector of Muslim holy
places requires it to take an uncompromising stand on issues
touching Jerusalem. Saudi representatives told US officials that
the issue is of great emotional significance for all Muslims and of
extreme religious sensitivity for Saudi Arabia.
Implications for the United States
Libya's demands for tough anti-US measures, which the Arab moderates
oppose, will carry much greater weight at the emergency Arab League meeting
scheduled for 30 January in the charged atmosphere now likely to prevail.
The emotions that may be fanned on 31 January, when all mosque preachers in
the Muslim world are to devote their sermons to the Temple Mount incidents,
can only augment the anti-US climate at the meeting.
Confluence of Events. The visceral response of Arab Muslims to the
Temple Mount incidents worsens the tense political climate in the Middle
East already aggravated by anticipation of Israeli retaliation for the Rcme
and Vienna airport bombings, uncertainties about US military intentions in
maneuvering its fleet off the Libyan coast, and frustration over lack of
progress toward a Middle East peace settlement. Under such conditions,
individual incidents that would otherwise create only momentary disruptions
are more likely to produce the potential for acts of terrorism and mob
violence.
Damage to US -nterests. US interests in furthering the peace pro,~ess
are endangered by he prevailing paranoia and suspicion intensified by the
Temple Mount events:
--Jordanian-Israeli relations are strained; the Jordanian press has.
played up the incidents, and some Israelis are interpreting Arab
reaction to the incidents as a challenge to their nation's
sovereignty.
--The potential for violence among West Bank Arabs has increased.
--PLO leader leader Arafat's linking of the Temple Mount incidents to
the broader issue of Palestinian rights blurs religious and
political distinctions.
--Egyptian-Israeli ties are again under attack from Egyptian domestic
critics, forcing Mubarak to stall on efforts to improve relations
with Tel Aviv following Israel's recent agreement to pursue
arbitration over Taba.
--Terrorists looking for popular justification for attacking US and
Israeli targets may find a ready-made rationale in the Temple Mount
incidents.
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--A US veto of a UNSC resolution on Temple Mount would offer grist to
the mill of the radicals who seek Arab sanctions against the US.
Strengthened Nonalignment. The Soviets are not currently in a
position to capitalize fully on US difficulties. The attempted coup and
ensuing civil war in South Yemen has revived deep suspicions about the
dangers of the Soviet embrace and cooled existing Soviet ties with Arab
states like North Yemen and Kuwait. The trend toward renewal of diplomatic
relations with moderate Arabs that Moscow has recently enjoyed may also be
A rise of anti-superpower sentiment may occur in Middle East
populations, strengthening support for distancing from both the United
States and the Soviet Union. Arab popular opinion has become increasingly
cynical that either superpower can ameliorate the major problems facing the
Arabs today: the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Palestinian issue, or the
Iran-Iraq War. Any nonaligned drift, however, will be limited by the Arab
states' need for military assistance to deal with local and regional
security challenges, for economic assistance, and for ties to the
superpower patrons of their adversaries.
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ANNEX: A Chronology of Recent Temple Mount Events
The Temple Mount in Jerusalem, known by Muslims as Haram al- Sharif,
is sacred to Jews, Muslims, and Christians. It contains the "Western
Wall," the holiest shrine of Jews, and the Dome of the Rock -- from which
Muslims believe Muhammad ascended to heaven, and around which is built the
al-Aqsa Mosque. A Muslim Waqf, or religious foundation, has supervised its
operation for about 300 years; Israeli courts have reaffirmed the Waqf's
functional jurisdiction, and forbid public group prayer by Jews in the
Mosque itself, while reaffirming Israeli sovereignty over Temple Mount. F
January 8, 1986: A group of 25 Israelis, including Knesset members
serving on the Interior Committee, visited the Temple Mount to survey the
area for suspected illegal construction. The tour had been prearranged
with Muslim officials. When a few of the visitors attempted to take video
cameras into restricted areas, Muslim guards barred the way, and a shoving
match ensued. Nearby Muslims were attracted to the scuffle when a muezzin
called for help over the loud speaker. Israeli police arrived and restored
order using tear gas to disperse the crowd with minimal injuries. Arab
leaders called on shopkeepers in the old city of Jerusalem to strike.
Israeli officials called for restraint, and the Knesset Speaker requested
According to police reports, the incidents were initiated by two
Knesset members from the far-right opposition Tehiya-Tzomet Party in
collaboration with a right-wing Likud member, and other religious
nationalists from outside the Knesset.
January 9, 1986: Police detained three Israelis who attempted to hoist
an Israeli flag on the Temple Mount. In a separate event, Commerce
Minister Sharon paid a highly-publicized visit to the al-Aqsa mosque.
January 13, 1986: Mayor Kollek and Knesset Speaker Hillel visited the
Temple Mcunt to help calm the situation, and were well received by MJstins.
January 14, 1986: A return visit by some Knesset members and Israeli
civilians ended in an even more heated confrontation than the 8 January
incident when a few began to pray inside the Haram. Police arrived and
used tear gas to disperse the large angry crowd of Arabs that had gathered.
Later, a group of Arab youths stoned the Israeli police station on the
Haram. and a commercial strike was observed in Muslim neighborhoods around
the city.. Prime Minister Peres, while reaffirming Israeli sovereignty over
Jerusalem, pointed out that government policies regarding Temple Mount had
not changed -- policies that recognize the shared sacredness of the site
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and the functional responsibility of the Waqf to manage its daily
operations -- and condemned the mass incitement there.
January 19, 1986: About a dozen members of the extremist Israeli Kach
Movement tried to enter the Temple Mount, but were stopped at the gate by
police. Two were arrested, one in possession of an Israeli flag intended
to be hoisted on the Mount. Although Meir Kahane leads the Kach movement,
Embassy sources make no mention of his presence at this incident as
reported in the popular Arab press.
January 21, 1986: Israeli press publishes official Chief Rabbinate
ruling forbidding Jews from setting foot on Temple Mount because of its
sacredness; press also noted Director General of Jerusalem Municipality's
finding that "there is no illegal construction on the Temple."
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FOR ESCALATION
External Distribution
Roscoe Suddarth
NEA/Dept. Asst. Secretary
Rm. 6244 State Dept.
Marion Creekmore
NEA/Dept. Asst. Secretary
Rm. 6244 State Dept.
David Zweifel
D/NEA/AFN/State
Rm. 5250 State Dept.
April,Glaspie
D/NEA/ARN/State
Rm. 6250 State Dept.
Gordon S. Brown
D/NEA/ARP/State
Rn. 4244 State Dept.
David J. Dunford
D/NEA/EGY/State
Rn. 6251A State Dept
Philip C. Wilcox Jr.
D/NEA/IAI/State
Rm. 6247 State Dept.
Barbara Bodine
NEA/IAI
Rn. 6247 State Deoc.
Grant Smith
D/NEA/RA/State
Rm. 5252A State Dept.
Milton Kovner
IO/UNP/Sate
Rm. 6344 State Dept.
George Harris
D/INR/NESA/State
Rm. 4524A State Dept.
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