LDC COMMODITY STUDY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 42
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 8, 2004
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: August 7, 1975
• Content Type: MF

STAT
Approved For Release 2005/01/10 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5
 !JNCLASSIFIED
514 6'3 O
7 AUGUST 1975
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
SUBJECT: LDC COMMODITY STUDY
THE ATTACHED MATERIAL WAS COORDINATED BY
FINAL DRAFT WAS HANDCARRIED TO SAMUEL
HART, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, ECONOMIC RESEARCN AND
ANALYSIS, INR/STATE. MR. HART PASSED THE MATERIAL
PREPARED BY OER AND DATA PREPARED BY INR TO THE
UNDER SECRETARY OF STATE, ECONOMIC AFFAIRS,
MR. CHARLES ROBINSON,
STAT
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UNCLASSIFIED
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= 'Ill i7
 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5
Less Developed Countries: Trade Position
in Major Non-Oil Raw Materials
LDC Share of
World Trade
1972-1974
Number of LDC
Suppliers Accounting
for at Least
World Trade
Share of
World Production
1972-1974
(Percent)
70% of Total Trade
(Percent)
70%-100%
Coffee
97
10
72
Sugar
71
30
27
Rubber
98
2
91
Cocoa
100
4
78
Tea
83
6
58
Tin
81
4
85
Bananas
92
9
20
Bauxite
75
9 ,
45
50%-70%
Phosphate Rock
64
50
Copper
~9
64
Cotton
57
32
Alumina
50
35
Less than 50%
Timber 26
8
Iron Ore 40
44
Oils (Vegetable and 30
25
Marine) -
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 Less Developed Countries: Selected Economic Data
Population
GNP/Capita
1974
Real QUIP
Growth
Real ( P
1
741
Total
Efts
Non-Oil
Raw Material
Ex
orts
1969-1974
99
1974
p
Percent
(Mullions)
(US $)
(P
1974
Majo
ercent)
(Percent)
(Million US $)
(Mullion US $)
r
dlti
Or
~-ts
Bangladesh
I'xii
77
90
-0.5
11.5
372
a
600
150
1
7
168
Jute
.
1.0
4,200
1,010
Tea
3Y
7
Iron are
4
Sugar
7
Indone4ia
133
120
7.8
10.0
7,430
1,780
Rubber
6-
Palm oil
2
Tin
2
Malaysia
12
720
6
8
I-bod
10
.
6.0
4,53a
2,220
Itibber
28
Tirber
15
Tin
15
Pakistan
68
120
3
5
5
0
Palm oil
.
11
.
.
1,026
520
Cotton
4
Philippines
42
330
6
4
5
'
Rice
.
.9
2,720
2,260
Sugar
20
17*
Ti thar
25
16
Oilseeds
7
Iron ore
1
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 -. ...,.,?, ., _. _?._ ._ ?.. Approved Forte qo,2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5
Less Developed Countries: Selected Economic Data
% (Continued)
GM/Capita
Real GVP
Grath
Peal G~
Greer-
Total
EX-ports
Non-Oil
Raw Material
Exports
Percen't
Populatior.
1974
1969-1974
1974
1974
1974
:'major
o=
(Millions)
(US $)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Million US $)
(Million US $)
Comm ities
Eti x xrtts
Asia (Con't)
Thailand
41
290
6.3
3.9
2,480
2,210
?e
10
Tin
6
Corn
12
Teak _
Rice
n.a.
19
Turkey
800
7.4
7.5
1,532
904
Chsa ore
22
Cotton
18
Tobacco
13
col
i
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 Approved For, Release. 2005/01/10 : CIA-RD086T00608R000600070014-5
Less Developed Countries: Selected Economic Data
(Continued)
W /Capita
Real GNP
Growth
Real GVP
Growth
Total
E worts
Non-Oil
Raw Material
Exports
Percent
Population
1974
1969-1974
1974
1974
1974
;Major
(Millions)
(US $)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Million US $)
(Million US $)
Camncliti
E
_
es
_{rcrts
Latin America
Argentina
25
1,400
4'. 5
3,850
2,960
Grains
28*
at
20 -
j?:ao1
--7
830
10.2
9.6
7,970
5;100?
Sugar
16
Coffee
So-/oeans
Iron ore
u
u
7
Chile
Cocoa
3
880
2.9
5.2
2,040
1,760
Coptxr
.76-
Nitrates
3
Colombia
Iron are
-3
510
6.4
5.,6
1,200
740
Coffee
52
Sugar
7
Guyana
Bananas
2
543
4.1
7.5
.270
270
Sugar
49
Rice
8
Bauxite
26
+.-: --z
8
1,010
6.6
4.3
730
680
e
20
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Table 2
Less Developed Countries: Selected Economic-Data
(Continued)
Non-Oil _
Real GNP Real GP Total Raw Material
GNP/Capita Growth Growth Exports Exports Perce
Population 1974 1969-1974 1974 1974 1974 Major of
(Millions) (US $) ` (Percent) (Percent) (Million US $) (Million US $) Carmodities F:.`r
Latin 1'.mer'ica (Can't)
MSpYICO
56
1,160
6.2
6.0
2,760
1,040
Sugar
Co; FCC
Venezuela
12
2,280
4.3
5.1
10
800
5
,
240
~r ire
Coffee
Cocoa
Sugar
3*
negl
~ 'Iegi
negl
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86T06668R0006d00T0014-5'
Less Developed Countries: Selected Economic Data -
(Continued)
W /Capita,
Population
1974
(Millions)
(US $)
Africa
Egypt
36
280
Ghana
10
280
Guinea
4
70*
Ivory coast 5 770
13 180*
M rocco 17 310
Tunisia 6 610
5 440
Nigeria 62 380
. Data are for 1973.
Real C NP Real G-1P Total
Gra,ith Gra%Tth Exports
1969-1974 1974 1974
(Percent) (Percent) (Million US $)
1.9
2.7
2.5
4.0
3.0
2.7
1,510
710
50*-
8.C
13.0
1,230
7.5
6.5
600
5.0
10.0
1,750
8.7
11.0
?920
700
Cotton
40
670
Cocoa
61
50
Alumina
86
1,170
Coffee _
23
Tiirbe
16
Cocoa
26
360
Coffee
18
Tea
9
1.160
Phosphate Rock
56
Citrus Fruit
6
Fish
3
180
Olive oil
16
Phosphate Rock
3-0
1,280
Copper
66
1,380
Copper
93
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 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5
Table 3
Major Raw Material Exporters, 1974 Estimate
Million
Metric Tons Percent
Copper (concentrates & metals) 4.6
Chile
Peru
Zaire
Zambia
Papua/New Guinea
Philippines
Australia
Canada
Other
Tin (concentrates & metals)
Malaysia
Bolivia
Thailand
Indonesia
Zaire
Other
Iron Ore
Australia
Brazil
Canada
Sweden
Liberia
India
France
Chile
Peru
Jamaica
Australia
Surinam
Guyana
Yugoslavia
Dominican Republic
Malaysia
Guinea
Other
0.2
100
19
5
10
15
4
5
3
14
25
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 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5
Table 3
Major Raw Material Exporters, 1974 Estimate
Million
Metric Tons
Percent
Alumina
Australia
8.2
Jamaica
31
Guinea
28
Surinam
9
Guyana
15
Other
3
14
Phosphate Rock
Morocco
55.3
United States
34
USSR and North Vietnam
23
Nauru; Oceania,
13
Christmas Islands
Tunisia
8
Spanish Sahara
4
Other
4
14
Coffee
Brazil
3.45
Colombia
23
Angola
15
Ivory Coast
8
Uganda
7
Cameroon
6
El Salvador
3
Mexico
3
Guatemala
3
Zaire
3
Other
3
26
Sugar
Cuba
21.5
Brazil
25
Australia
18
Philippines
Dominican Republic
7
South Africa
5
Other
4
41
. ~w~-.w...~-_ .~.s.-+w ?, w'~"^!.~'...rlw'.,~[1nr~~.~. ~.v~}~.A~?e~.i~T?~ ~,~,Y~} ~~
 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5
Rubber
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand
Sri Lanka
Other
Cocoa*
Ghana
Nigeria
Ivory Coast
Brazil
Cameroon
Ecuador
Other
.Oilseeds
Malaysia
Philippines
Indonesia
Senegal
Ivory Coast
Zaire
Argentina
Other
Million
Metric Tons
1.07
3.02 (oil content)
Percent
48
26
12
4
10
27
16
15
12
8
5
17
32
14
9.
3
3
2
2
35
* 1973/74, 1 October-30 September.
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 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5
Table 4
Selected LD.C Raw Material Prices
Aluminum 1
Copper 2
Tin 3
Cocoa beans4
Coffee 5
Cotton 6
Sugar 7
SUS Cents Per Pound)
1965
1969
1970
1971
1972 1973
1
7
1974
9
1
24.50
58.65
176.51
27.18
66.29
154.91
28.72
63.89
163.69
29.00
49.27
159.44
26.45 25.33
48.54 80.80
170;90 218.15
34.06
90.41
317.20
39.00
55.60
308.10
Agricu ura
US $ per Metric Ton)
381
1,007
754
591
712 1,420
2,167
1,641
992
909
1,224
1,002
1,141 1,458
1,528
1,452
646
627
654
754
806 1,430
1,339
1,047
47
74
83
100
164 212
661
376
1. Virgin unalloyed ingot at Newyork.
2. .London Metal Exchange electrolytic wirebars.
3. London Metal Exchange.
4. Fran Accra, N.}w York spot.
5. Fran Santos, No. 4, New York spot.
6. American, Meiphis Territory, strict puddling, 1 1/16 inches, c.i..f. Liverpool.
ool.
7. Cane raw, 96?, spot, f.o.b. and stowed, ports of origin, to world market.
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 Approved For Release 2005/01/10 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000600070014-5
,LDC Raw Material Exports: Major Markets, 1974
4..
Asia ,
United West
States Europe Japan Other
,.Bangladesh
3taw jute
2
37
4
57
?India
Tea
4
39
1
56
Iron ore
--
1
78
21
Sugar
55
--
--
45
Dilseeds
1
42
3
54
Indonesia
Tin
19
41
34
6
-`Wood
'
--
3
80
171/
Rubber
25
18
3
541/
Nl7.aysia
Rubber
16
26
7
511/
,,2in
28
33
23
161/
:Dilseeds
12
30
2
561/
Pakistan
'taw cotton
1
6
20
73
Rice
negl.
1
--
99
Phai. ppines **
Sugar
Timber
2
7
71
20
Capper
fi?
3
88
3
Oilseeds
29
54
12
5
Iron ore
99
1
Tha `land
Rubber
7
5
54
34
Tin
Corn
Teak
40
32
22
41
6
59
22
24
8
46
Turkey
Chrome
27
66
7
Cotton
1
58
41
Tobacco
Wool
32
39
100
12
17
C*reals
57
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Incl.1ides shipments to Singapore 'for re-export.
1.
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Table 5
LDC Raw Material Exports: Major Markets, 1974
(Continued)
United
States
West
Europe
Japan
Other
Latin America
Argentina
Grains
negl.
49
Brazil
Sugar
15
6
4
75
Coffee
27
51
3
19
Soybeans
negl.
75
7
18
Iron ore
8
54
30
8
Cocoa
50
19
--
31
Chile
Copper
14
44
15
27
Nitrates
33
35
3
29
Iron ore
3
3
93
1
Colombia
Coffee
42
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Sugar
53
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Bananas
40
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Guyana*
Sugar
24
66
--
10
Bauxite
46
39
--
15
Alumina
12
88
--
--
Jamaica
Bananas
3
64
--
33
Sugar
32
56
4
8
Bauxite
100
--
--
Alumina
34
50
--
16
Mexico **
Coffee
72
17
1'
10
Sugar
99
--
--
1
Cotton
14
9
46
31
Venezuela*
Iron ore
67
33
--
Coffee
80
20
--
Cocoa
25
65
9
1
Sugar
41
37
--
22
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't'able 5
LDC Raw Mat:crial Exports: Major. Markets, 1974
(Continued)
Percent
Africa
United
Stites
West
1:uro e
Ja an
Other
Egypt
Cotton
negl.
53
22
25
Ghana**
Cocoa
18
44
7
31
Guinea
(not available)
Ivory Coast*
Coffee
Timber
Cocoa
Kenya
Coffee
Tea
Morocco
Phosphate rock
Citrus fruit
Fish
Tunisia
Olive oil
Phosphate rock
29
23
50
87
65
10
11
13
9
75
1
15
12
80
8
60
40
85
15
80
20
75
25
65
35
negl.
90
2
8
negl.
51
31
18
* Commodity data are for 1972.
** Commodity data are for 1973.
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NATt1_!_A1, ttU13t)i;it
Mcit?kr,t: Prot i 1c'
M,-iJnyr;.ia and tndonesi.7 are the main producers
of natural rubber, accountitq for about three-fourths
of world production in 1974, w4th Thai land and Sri
Lanka accounting for most of the remainder. Only a
miniscule part of production in these countries is
used domestically. The rest is exported primarily to
the United States, Western Europe, and Japan with
lesser amounts going to the USSR and the PRC.
Most of the natural rubber trade in handled
through long-term contracts between the producers and
consuming firms in the US, Western Europe, and Japan
and state trading corporations in the case of the USSR
and the PRC. The volume of exports is usually specified
in these contracts with prices set to reflect changing
market conditions.
Chronic dissatisfaction with low world prices led
to the formation of the International Rubber Study Group
in 1946 which included producers and consumers of both
natural and synthetic rubber. In 1971 the ineffectiveness
of the Group
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lr`d SOU t:h~ t Af;.i.at; I,t c~~luc tit fc, t;eade~l Icy lt:sl_ayt; I41, t CJ
Form a now rjroui) a_ the Af;r,oc'3dtion -jr lSatur.aI ltul,ber
t'roducin(! Countrirf;. Thuf; far, the A nf;ur..i alion hafj
concenLratc'cl on Leehn.jcal Matter,, although the memberci
have dircuf;r cd the pur; .ibil..i ty of joint action in regard
to natural rubber marketing, freight rates, and f;toc),.-
Epi ling.
Recent Trends
The demand for natural rubber has accelerated in
recent years. US consumption increased 6% in 1973 and
4% in 1974 compared to virtually no gain during the 1960s.
Even during this recession year, US consumption is expected
to increase 1.5% and world consumption, 4%. This improve-
ment in demand mainly reflects the greater use of radial
tires and off-the-road vehicle tires. The average radial
tire uses 35% natural rubber, the bias tire only 25%.
More recently, natural rubber's cost position vis-a-vis
synthetics has improved because higher petroleum prices
haveiriven up the production costs of synthetic rubber.
Preliminary estimates indicate a 50,000 metric ton
shortfall between supply and demand of natural rubber in
1975. This amount could easily be covered by
the 132,.000 ton US stockpile, but release of more than
--