SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: PROSPECTS FOR RECOVERY FROM DROUGHT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000500230011-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 14, 2000
• Sequence Number: 11
• Publication Date: March 1, 1975
• Content Type: RP

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Confidential
Sub-Saharan A :
ivgxctc for Recovery from Drought
Confidential
ER RP 75-11
March 1975
Copy N2 35
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NATIONAL SECURITY INFORMATION
Unauthorized Disclosure Subject to Criminal Sanctions
CI.? 111ed by 015319
Exempt from General Declassification Schedule
of E.O. 11852Ef exemption category,
'57 dic1..11.dd on,
date Impoulble to determine
q#
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CONFIDENTIAL
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA:
PROSPECTS FOR RECOVERY FROM DROUGHT
? Good rains last summer at least temporarily broke the long- drought in
most of Sahelian Africa.
? The October harvests were short of requirements for 1975, but the food
deficits to be filled by foreign donations are estimated at only about
half of the 700,000 metric tons granted during November 1973 - October
1974.
? The drought's major economic toll was against the livestock herds, cutting
exports of beef cattle and local barter of livestock products for cereals.
? Reduced cattle exports from the Sahelian states will cause sharp increases
in beef prices in coastal African cities, such as Abidjan, Dakar, and Accra.
? The realization of a tentatively forecast long-term decline in precipitation
would severely limit long-term Sahelian developmental prospects.
? Even if weather is good, the Sahel's poor physical resources limit
prospects for making the area agriculturally productive.
There are significant planning and financing deficiencies that impede
efforts to accelerate development, as well as a lack of enthusiasm in some
governmental circles toward improving the welfare of the herding tribes.
? Institutional shortcomings will tend to stimulate a recurrence of the cycle
of overgrazing and consequent extreme drought vulnerability.
? Significant improvements in Sahelian living conditions during this decade
are improbable. I
Note: Comments and queries regarding this publication are welcomed. They may
be directed to f the Office of Economic Research, Code 143,
Extension 5741.
25X1 A
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Introduction
1. Six of the world's poorest countries bore site brunt of the African
drought - Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Upper Volta, Niger, and Chadl (see th(; map).
Even before the drought, these states shared low growth rates and pe: capita
incomes, widespread malnutrition, persistent trade deficits, and other of the
impoverishing characteristics that distinguish the most disadvantaged of developing
countries.2 None had natural resources on a scale sufficient to nourish ~,Orospects
for achieving healthy development in this decade.
2. The barren Sahara Desert blankets more than half of the ar,r?,s of four
of the countries - Mauritania, Mali, Niger, and Chad. The first fringe o'r land south
of the Sahara, called the Sahel, is barely more habitable, receiving only ; X7-20 inches
of rainfall annually during June-September. The Sahel encompasses abc:ut one-fifth
of the combined areas of the six countries. Mauritania and Niger have almost no
area south of the Sahel, and livestock diseases spread by the tsetse fly limit the
usefulness of the sub-Sahelian southern areas in the other four states.
3. Despite the forbidding environment, farming and herding support more
than 90% of the six countries' 25 million people. Except in Mawilania, most of
the populations consist of farmers living in the south of the countri:;:;, where rainfall
normally is just sufficient to grow sorghum, millet, and vegetables . r family needs
and some local marketih,j. Cultivation in the Sahel takes place r !iiinly along the
Niger and Senegal Rivers and the tributaries of Lake Chad. Livestock raising
centered in the Sahel contributes all or most of the livelihood if about 25% of
the six-countries' combined populations (about 75% of Mauritania':i). The extremely
variatle weather induces the herders to move most of their livestock in migratory
patterns, leaving the sparse northern pastures at the end of the wet seasons for
more bountiful pastures and harvested farm lands in the south, and returning as
the wet seasons recur.
4. The practices of farming and herding are divided roughly along ethnic
lines. Tauregs of Berber anc, ctry and Fulani tribes carry on most of the migratory
herding in the S:,hel. Bedouin Arabs herd mainly sheep, goats, and camels in the
1. Drought also was severe in a number of Ethiopian provinces. Other countries touched by the African
drought include Gambia, Guinea, Dahomey, Nigeria, Camotcon, Central African RapubIc, Sudan, Uganda,
Tanzania, Kenya, and Somalia.
2. Available economic statistics for the six countries are given in Table 1.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Economic Statistics of Six Sahelian Countriesi
Senegal
Mauritania
Mali
Upper
Volta
Niger
Chad
Gross domestic product (million
US $, current prices)
P
l
1,000
230
380
325
400
300
opu
ation (thousand persons)
4,258
1,304
5,560
5,888
4,444
3
988
Population dependent on
agriculture (percent)
P
80
98
98
95
98
,
90
er capita GDP (US $)
A
240
190
'i0
60
100
80
rea (thousand square miles)
U
d
76
419
463
106
489
496
n
er cultivation (percent)
12
1
1
10
3
10
Population density (persons
per square mile)
P
56
3
12
55
9
8
opulation growth (percent)
Ad
2
2
2
2
2
2
ult literacy rate (percent)
E
5-10
5-10
0.5
5-10
0.5
5-10
xports (million US $)
215
100
30
25
55
40
Major commodities (percent of
total exports)
Groundnuts
35-40
Negi.
10-15
5-10
45-50
0
.Cotton
0
0
15-20
25-30
Negl.
45-50
Minerals
10-15
70-75
0
0
10.15
N.gl.
Livestock
Negl.
10-15
45-50
55-60
30-35
45-50
Fish
I
5-10
5-10
5-10
0
Negl.
Negi.
mports (million US $)
280
70
60
70
65
65
Foreign exchange reserves
at yearend (million US $)
F
2
20-40
10-20
0-5
40.60
30-50
0-5
oreign debt (million US $)
345
80
325
30
40
30
1. All data are the most recent available.
2. Debt with a maturity of over one year.
Sahel and in Saharan oases. The Fulani and tribes that are largely of Negroid
ancestry (Dogon, Songhai, and others) practice semimigratory herding and sedentary
farming and herding in the south of the states, both inside and outside the Sahel.
Considerable ill will has existed between the largely Muslim Sahelian herders and
Christian-Animist southerners as a result of depredations by the warlike herders
in past generations.
Six Years of Drought, 1968-73,
5. Rainfall was below average in 1968, and fell in successive years after
1969 to a low of less than two-thirds of normal in 1973 (see the chart). Always
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SUB-SAHARAA AFRICA:
Average Rainfall In Six Sahollan Countries
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susceptible to drought, the Sahelian herding economy (the Tauregs, Fulani, and
Bedouin Arabs and, to a lesser extent, the farmer/herders in the southern Salle))
suffered the most immediate and severe damage. Water wells both for human and
animal consumption dried up and pastures for livestock were quickly consumed.
River flooding, depended on for subirrigation of the Sahelian grain crops, failed
in 1972 and 1973. Cereal production in the six countries may have been cut by
as much as one-third compared with average production before the drought (see
Table 2).
Sub-Saharan Africe- Estimated Sorghum and Millet Productic k
by Six Sahellan Countries)
Thousand Metric Tons
Annual Average
Predrought
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Total
4,300.4,925
N.A.
3,775
N.A.
3,065
3,210
N.A.
Senegal
600.700
635
410
585
325
510
650
Mauritania
100-125
N.A.
80
N.A.
35
25
N.A.
Mali
8001,000
700
715
750
500
675
N.A.
Upper Volta
1,000-1,100
1,000
860
945
740
720
1,000
Niger
1,200-1,300
1,385
1,100
1,225
1,050
900
N.A.
Chad
600700
650
610
600
415
380
N.A.
1. Numbers represent rough estimates and are rounded to the nearest 5,000 tons.
6. The Sahel's vulnerability to drought had been increased by overstocking
of livestock and consequent overgrazing prior to 1968. After independence in 1960,
each country had increased veterinary services and expanded well drilling to spur
cattle and meat exports and increase revenues from livestock head-taxes. As a result,
herds possibly doubled to as many as 50-60 million animals3 (see Table 3). There
were no institutional incentives to limit the expansion, because the livestock were
grazed on open ranges where water and pasture were held in common.
7. Traditional husbandry practices of the Sahelian herders abetted the
governmental initiatives. Livestock ownership had long represented a measure of
family wealth; therefore, unlimited accumulation of animals was a common goal.
Livestock's value stemmed from the herders' almost total dependence for food
on (1) milk from the herds and (2) cereals acquired by bartering milk and milk
3. Statlstica data on the Sahellan ecmnomies anti on the impact of the drought are sparse and unreliable.
Most data in this publication indicate estimated orders of magnitude.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: The Niger River could be crossed on foot at Niamey during the worst of
the 1968-73 drought.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Estimated Livestock Population
of Six Sahelian Countries, 1968
Sheep
Cattle and Goats Horses Ctune!s
Total 18,500 29,000 1,800 1,530
Senegal 2,000 2,000 200 30
Mauritania 2,000 4,000 200 500
Mali 4,500 9,000 500 250
Upper Volta 2,000 3,O0 200 10
Niger 4,000 8,000 400 390
Chad 4,000 3,000 300 350
products and selling male and barren cattle. No alternative opportunities for
accumulating wealth, such as would be provided by savings institutions and a
tradition of currency-based commerce, existed.
8. The severe environment and poor husbandry practices had kept the herds
in poor condition before the drought began. The migratory herding routes between
the widely dispersed wet and dry season pastures had enforced repeated and tiring
livestock drives to maintain the animals' minimal nutritional needs. t,)mpetition
by herders for brood cows' milk for family and trading needs weakened calves.
Local customs that favored older brood stock of proved fertility over young animals
had led, to the overstocking of aged animals.
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9. The drought forced the herders to acceler