RESEARCH AID PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA: INTERNATIONAL TRADE HANDBOOK

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000500110014-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 23
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 18, 2003
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: October 1, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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Research Aid
People:r Republic of China:
International Trade Handbook
A (ER) 75-73
C )c c,ber 1975
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This publication is prepared for the use of U.S. Government
officials. The format, coverage, and contents of the publi-
cation are designed to meet the specific requirements of
governmental users. All inquiries concerning this document
from non-U.S. Government users are to be addressed to:
Document Expediting (DOCEX) Project
Exchange and Gift Division
Library of K ongress
Washington, D.C. 20540.
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CONTENTS
Page
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .iii
Patterns of Trade in 1974 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Agricultural Imports-Record Cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Great Leap in Machinery and Equipment Imports . 3
'export Drive Stalls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Outlook for 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Partial Trade Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Export Stagnation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Trimming the Import Bill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ? . 7
Balance of Payments Recovery . 8
Major Trading Partners in 1975 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Appendix
Statistical Tables 9
1. China: Balance of Trade . 9
2. China: Trade by Area and Country 10
3. China: Direction of Trade 12
4. China: Commodity Composition of Trade 12
5. China: Commodity Composition of Trade, by Area . . . . . . . 13
6. China: Commodity Composition of Exports to Selected
Countries, 1974 14
7. China: Commodity Composition of Imports from Selected
Countries, 1974 15
8. China: Imports of Grain and Chemical Fertilizer . . . . . . . . . 16
9. China: Contracts for Whole Plant Imports 17
Illustrations
Figure I. China: Trends in Foreign Trade . 2
Figure 2. China: Geographic Distribution of Trade, 1974 ? 4
Figure 3.. China: Commodity Composition of Trade, 1974 . . . . . . . . . 5
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This handbook on the international trade of the People's Republic of China
is prepared annually as a research aid. It contains ,':e following information: a
short text assessirig Chinese trade during 1974 and giving a preliminary estimate
of the likely level of trade during 1975; and an appendix, comprising Tables 1
through 9, which cover trade trends, trading partners, and commodity composition.
The statistical data for this handbook are based on the official statistics of
China's trading partners, where available. Statistics for Chinese trade with the
non-Communist developed countries are essentially complete, but statistics for its
trade with the less developed countries are fragmentary. Statistics on China's trade
with the USSR and most East European countries are available. Statistics are not
available for other Communist countries, and estimates for these countries are based
on trade agreements and other trade indicators. Non-Communist trade statistics
have been adjusted to place Chinese exports on an f.o.b. basis and Chinese imports
on a c.i.f. basis.* In addition, adjustments have been made for double counting,
such as Chinese re-exports through Hong Kong. Because of rounding, components
in the statistical tables may not add to the totals shown.
The grouping of non-Communist countries is as follows: (1) developed
countries, including Australia, Japan, and New Zealand in East Asia and the Pacific;
all countries in Western Europe, except Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Walta; Canada
and the United States in North America; and South Africa; (2) less developed
countries, including all other East Asian and Pacific countries; all Near East and
South Asian countries; all countries in Latin America except Cuba; all countries
in Africa except South Africa; and Spain, Portugal. Greece, and Malta; and (3) Hong
Kong and Macao.
? The value of imports is the value of goods delivered to Chinese docks, including insurance and freight
charges. The value of exports is the value of goods loaded on board ship in Chinese ports.
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PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA:
INTERNATIONAL TRADE HANDBOOK
Patterns of Trade in 1974
ld
s trade boom fell victim to wor
'
1. China
inflation and recession in 1974. Total trade increased
by about 39%, to $14.0 billion, well below the 70% 1970
increase in 1973. Most of the increase in 1974 was 1971
attributable to higher prices; growth in real terms was 1972
perhaps 10%. The tabulation shows the trend of 1973
1974
Chinese trade, which has more than tripled in dollar
$
Increase
4,290
11
4,720
10
5,920
25
10,090
70
14,005
39,
value since 1970. In real terms, China's trade in 1974 probably was roughly 75%
higher than the level of 1970.
2. Worldwide inflation pushed up China's import bill while the economic
slowdown in the West cut demand for Chinese exports, resulting in the largest
trade deficit in China's history - about $1.4 billion with the non-Communist world
and, despite a surplus with Cie Communist world, about $1 billion overall (see
Figure 1).
3. Led by a 66% increase in trade with Japan, the share of the
non-Communist countries in China's total trade increased to 84%. The United States
and Hong Kong remained China's second and third largest trading partners, after
Japan, as the following tabulation of major trading partners shows:
Total Trade, 1974
(Million US $)
1974 Rank
1973 Rank
Japan
3,327
1
1
United States
1,064
2
2
Hong Kong
895
3
3
West Germany
652
4
5
4
Malaysia/Singapore
595
5
Canada
575
6
6
Australia
478
7
10
France
349
8
11
United Kingdom
328
9
7
USSR
282
10
8
China's $2.9 billion trade deficit with the developed countries was only partly
offset by the surplus with the less developed countries and Hong Kong (see
Figure 2).
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MiDion
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CHINA: Trends in Foreign Trade
8,000
01 1 1 1
1970 1971 1072 1973
587419 0.75
Figure 1
4. Although a substantial trade deficit was expected, Peking probably did
not anticipate the deterioration that took place in its balance of trade with the
non-Communist countries in 1974. The crunch Came in the second half of 1974
as the bulk of repayments for the year on short-term credits for grain fell due
and the growing world recession cut demand for Chinese exports. China began
taking measures to reduce its foreign exchange outlays such as canceling contracts
and postponing deliveries of agricultural products.
Agricultural Imports - Record Cost
5. Despite cancellations and postponements on several contracts for
agricultural products, the value of China's agricultural imports in 1974 increased
by about' one-half over 1973 to $2.1 billion, largely because of higher world prices.
The following tabulation shows the value of the major agricultural imports for
1972-75:
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Total
Wheat and corn
'Cotton
Sugar
Soybeans
1972
1973
1974
19751
845
1,340
2,055
1,265
345
840
1,170
615
195
335
390
200
110
115
340
450
195
50
155
...
6. Peking had contracted for almost 10 million metric tons of grain for
1974; contract cancellations and shipping delays reduced actual deliveries to only
7.0 million tons, down from 7.7 million tons in 1973. Higher prices and freight
costs, however, pushed the value up to $1.2 billion. With the fall in demand for
Chinese textiles, China canceled contracts calling for delivery of US cotton in the
second half of 1974 and by yearend had even begun to, export some cotton.
Skyrocketing world prices were the major factor in the tripling of the value of
China's sugar imports in 197.1.
7. Decreased volume and lower world prices will likely reduce China's
agricultural import bill in 1975 to below the 1973 level. Grain purchases for 1975
delivery total only 4.0 million tons. Cotton purchases also are down sharply, and
soybean imports have been phased out. Only sugar imports are expected to increase.
Great Leap in Machinery and Equipment Imports
8. China's imports of machinery and equipment jumped from $860 million
in 1973 to $1.6 billion in 1974, accounting for about 22% of total Chinese imports
(see Figure 3). Deliveries on the $1.3 billion in whole plant contracts signed in
1973 got under way during the year and totaled more than $200 million. Even
more important were shipments under the $1.8 billion in 1972-73 contracts for
aircraft, trucks, ships, dredgers, mining and oil drilling equipment, construction
machinery, and other machinery and equipment. Machinery imports from the
non-Communist countries were up about two and one-half times the 1973 level
to $1.2 billion.
9. Peking signed contracts for about $800 million worth of whole plants
in 1974. Rapid inflation and tight world credit, plus China's need for a breathing
spell to absorb the large amount of technology already purchased, were the major
reasons for the slowdown in purchases. Contracts worth $550 million were for
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CHINA: Commodity Composition of Trade, 1974
581418 9 75
the Wu-han steel rolling complex, with the balance of the purchases going for
additional synthetic fiber, fertilizer, and electric power plants. New orders for
machinery items and transport equipment in 1974 were off much more sharply
than whole plant purchases.
10. In 1975, China's machinery and equipment imports will exceed last year's
level. Much equipment is in the pipeline under contracts signed in the past few
years. Equipment for the whole plants purchased in 1974 will be added to
continuing shipments under 1973 contracts, and aircraft will be delivered in greater
numbers. Such machinery as oil drilling and mining equipment will also be given
priority, with less essential purchases being deferred to reduce import costs. New
contracts for whole plants will decline further to save on downpayment outlays.
Export Drive Stalls
11. Peking's drive to boost export earnings ran afoul of the worldwide
economic slowdown in 1974. Exports of textiles fell $250 million from 1973 to
1974. Hardest hit were exports of textile fibers to the developed countries,
particularly silk to Japan, yarn and fabric to Hong Kong, and clothing to the less
developed countries. Rice exports benefited from high world prices, but the volume
was down from the record 1.9 million tons in 1973. While exports from China
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rose by about $1.6 billion in 1974, almost 30% of the increase came from larger
deliveries of petroleum at substantially higher prices. Sales of crude oil and
petroleum products to non-Communist countries amounted to 4.4 million tons,
worth $450 million. Late in the year, even petroleum exports met with problems
when Japanese buyers, pleading full storage tanks, refused to take delivery of
900,000 tons of crude oil under a 1974 contract.
Outlook for 1975
12. Continuing recession in the non-Communist world, lower price for some
major export and import items, and Peking's desire to redress its trade deficit suggest
that the value of China's trade in 1975 will range from $14 to $15 billion. The
trade deficit is likely to be reduced, perhaps to about $500 million, and the hard.
currency balance of payments is likely to be improved.
Partial Trade Returns
13. Trade data for several months of 1975 with 17 of China's non-Communist
trading partners show an increase of only 4% over the same period in 1974, with
imports and exports growing at the same rate. The following tabulation compares
China's trade returns for early 1975 with the same period in 1974:
Period
1974
1975
Percent Change
Total
3,831
3,974
d
United States
San-Jul
668
256
-62
Japan
Jan-Jun
1,381
1,796
30
West Germany
Jan-Jun
259
345
33
United Kingdom
Jan-Jun
155
160
3
Denmark
Jan.-May
19
21
11
France
Jan-M;,y
105
172
64
Italy
Jan-May
90
36
-4
Norway
Jan-May
33
42
27
Sweden
Jan-May
36
42
17
Switzerland
Jan-May
35
46
31
Belgium/Luxembourg
Jan-May
38
27
-29
Finland
Jan-May
10
13
30
Canada
Jan-May
189
177
-6
Hong Kong
Jan-May
497
506
2
Australia
Jan-Apr
175
184
5
Singapore
Jan-Apr
120
90
-25
Turkey
Jan-Apr
21
11
-48
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These countries accounted for about 60% of total Chinese trade in 1974. Trade
with the rest of China's trading partners is expected to show similar rates of growth.
Export Stagnation
14. Slow recovery of the world economy is holding down the growth of
Chinese exports.
? Lower demand and import restrictions in some countries have cut sales
of China's traditional exports, particularly silk fiber, textiles, and clothing.
? Soft world demand for rice will reduce earnings from this major export.
? A jump in petroleum exports to $800 million may only offset the decline
in ether exports.
Sales at the Canton Fair, a major indicator of China's exports, point to lagging
exports this year. Contracts for Chinese exports at the 1975 spring fair roughly
matched the depressed level ($700 million) of the fair last fall. The Chinese were
eager to sell, cut prices on many items, and made additional efforts to meet buyers'
demands for packaging and labeling. Peking has also begun to stage mini-fairs for
goods such as carpets and basketware to boost sales in these specialized markets.
Trimming the Import Bill
15. In the past, China has reacted to large trade deficits by cutting back
imports the following year to bring trade back into balance. Use of credits will
permit another trade deficit this year, but the size of the deficit will be reduced
to ease the tight foreign exchange situation that cropped up late last year. Peking
has taken steps to trim some imports in 1975 and will tailor its purchases during
the year to match the fortunes of exports.
? Imports of agricultural products in 1975 will be cut by $800 million
from last year's level.
? Purchases of less essential machinery and equipment are being deferred.
? China will benefit from lower world prices for steel, nonferrous metals,
and fertilizer while maintaining or increasing the volume of imports.
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Balance of Payments Recovery
16. Statements by the Chinese over the past year indicate that the overall
payments balance with the non-Communist world, rather than simply the trade
balance, has become the area of primary concern. Despite the large trade def,;it
in 1974, China's balance of payments is not in crisis. Reserves are adequrie, and
Cl'.ina's credit rating is excellent. Credits for grain, whole plant equipment, and
Japanese steel and fertilizer will finance much of the reduced trade deficit in 1975,
while remittances from overseas Chinese will continue to provide an important
offset.
Major Trading Partners in 1975
17. Japan remains, far and away, China's leading. trade partner. Sino-Japanese
trade is expected to reach $3.5 to $4 billion this year with a Chinese deficit of
almost $1 billion. Deliveries of machinery and equipment under 1973 and 1974
whole plant contracts will be the major factor :in boosting Chinese imports. Imports
of steel will be down in both volume and value. Sharply reduced second-half prices
will lower the cost of fertilizer imports despite an increase in volume. Delivery
of 8 million tons of oil, worth almost $700 million, will account for all of the
growth in China's exports to Japan this year.
18. The United States will lose its position as China's number two trading
partner. Sharp cutbacks in purchases of US agricultural products will reduce Chinese
imports to about $250 million. Machinery and equipment consisting largely of
equipment for the Kellogg ammonia plants, oil exploration equipment, and
construction and mining machinery will be the major component. The resumption
of purchases of US steel scrap will be an important item in the second half of
the year. Chinese exports will rise to about $150 million and China's trade deficit
will be sharply reduced. Major Chinese export items will be iionferrous metals,
textiles, chemicals, and foodstuffs.
19. In 1975, Western Europe will remain a major supplier of machinery and
equipment, metals, and other high-technology items. Trade with Canada, Australia,
and Argentina may decline as China reduces its grain imports this year. China's
trade surplus with the less developed countries will grow if exports at least maintain
last year's level and lower commodity prices reduce import costs. Trade with the
Communist countries will be about the same level as 1914.
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Total Trade
Year Total Exports Imports Balance
1050 ............. 1. ?!n
1951 ............. 1,900
1952 ............. 1,81)0
1953 ............. .t2P6
1054 ............. 2,350
1055 ............. 3,035
1956.. 3,120
1957 ............. 3,055
1058 ............. 3,705
1959 ............. 4,290
1990 ............. 3,990
1001 ............. 3,015
1962 ............. 2,670
1903 ............. 2,775
1064 ............. 3,220
1905 ............. 0,880
1960 ............. 4,245
1067 ............. 3,895
1968 ............. 3,765
1909 ............. 3,860
1970..... ..... 4,290
1971 ............. 4,720
1972 ............. 5,920
1973 .............10,090
1974 ............. 14,05
APPENDIX
STATISTICAL TABLES
Table I
Million US $
Communist Countries Non-Communist Countries
Total Exports Imports Balance Total Exports Imports Balance
020 500 30 350 210 140 70 800 410 450 -.10
780 1, 12.- 340 075 165 515 - 50 020 31 ~ 005 -290
875 1,015 - 140 1,315 605 71') -105 575 270 :305
1,040 1,255 -- 215 1, 555 (170 885 -215 740 370 370 - 35
1.060 1,200 -230 1,735 765 970 -205 (115 205 320
1, 375 1, 61y;1 -285 2,250 950 1,300 _ 5
-350 785 42r .E 360 65
85
1,63,? 1,485 150 2,055 1,045 1,010 35 1,095 590 475
1,015 1,440 175 1,065 1,085 880 205 1,01)0 530 560 115
1,11?:0 1.825 115 2,380 1,280 1,100 180 1,385 000 725 - 35
2,230 2,060 170 2,080 1,615 1,305 5 695 - 80
,lu0 1,310 61r .E 69u -80
1,900 2,03(1 -70 2,020 1,335 1,285 50 1,370 025 745 -120
1,525 ',400 35 1,085 065 715 250 1,335 560 775
1,520 1,150 370 1,410 915 40U 425 1,265 605 660 215
1,575 1,200 375 1,250 82(1 430 390 1,525 755 770 - 55
1,750 1,470 28'?1 1,100 710 300 320 2,120 1,040 1,080 - 10
2,035 1,845 1110 1,165 650 515 135 2,715 1,385 1,330 55
rr
2,210 2,035 175 1,090 585 505 80 3,155 1,625 1,530 95
1,945 1,950 -5 830 485 345 140 3,065 1,400 1,605 -145
1,945 1,320 125 840 500 340 160 2,025 1,445 1,480
2,030 1,830 200 785 4110 205 195 3,075 1,540 1,535 - 35
5
2,050 2,240 -190 860 480 380 100 3,430 1,570 1,860 -?200
2,415 2,305 110 1,085 585 500 85 3,635 1,830 1,805 25
3,085 2,835 250 1,275 740 535 205 4,645 2,345 2,300 45
4,900 5,130 -170 1,710 1,000 710 200 8,380 3,900 4,420 -460
6,515 7,490 -975 2,300 1,345 655 300 11,705 5,170 6,535 - 1,365
Data are rounded to the nearest $5 million.
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