STAFF NOTES: WESTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000500040022-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 17, 2004
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: July 3, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

 Approved For Release 2005/04/22: CIA-RDP86T00608F~000500040022-0
25X1
CO Nl'ENTS
Greek Cypriots React Angrily to
Expulsions, Colonization
Commodity Issues: Dialogue of the Deaf
1
3
Portuguese Military Leaders Seek to Avoid
Power Confrontation with Security
Forces
8
25X1
25X1
25X1
.Iuly 3, 1975
25X1
Approved Fq'
 Approved For Rel
25X1
Greek Cypriots React Angrily to Rxpulsions,
C'o on zat on
Greek Cypriots have reacted angr.i ly to
the recent expulsion of some 800 oL- their
kinsmen from the Turkish Cypriot zone and
to the continued large-scale colonization
effort b}- Turks from the mainland.
The Makarios government has lodged pro-
tests with the UN Security Council and is
chargir?~ that the expulsions and colonization
are part of a Turkish effort to achieve de
facto partitioi- of t}~e island and to modify
the island's population ratio.
'P a expu~.sion o ie ree yprio s
25X1 seeme ess well thought out. It apparently
was prompted by the rough treatment given
some of the 48 Turkish Cypriots who were
apprehended by Greek Cypriot police last
week while trying to make their u-ay to the
north.
m?rk i ah C'vnri_ot le~~ier Denktash~
~ a threatened
o exF~e a reek Cypriots unless
his countrymen ir9 the south were allowed to
move north. According to the US embassy in
Nicosia, the UN special envoy to Cyprus has
now obtained an agreement whereby the 12
injured Turkish Cypriots will be transferred
to the north in return for an erd to the mass
expulsion of Greek Cypriots.
July 3, 1975
Approved For Relea
25X1
25X1
 25X1
Approved For Rel
Meanwhile, Denktash also hinted yesterday
that the third round of intercommunal talks
set to begin in Vienna on July 24 may have to
be postponed. Yesterday, he began a tour of
Arab sL-ates to counter that already made by
Makarios and will not present his proposals
on a central government thjLs week to Clerf.des
as promised.
The expulsions and colonization, along
with the poor prospects for the talks,
have fseled the frustration of Greek Cypriots
and come at a time when both sides are planning
large-scale demonstrations to note the anniver-
sary of the July 15 coup against Makarios and
the July 20 Turkish invasion. They are likely
to contribute to an increase in tensions along
the cease-fire line and could lead to violent
flare-ups before or during the anniversary
week, endangering foreign diplomatic missions
as well.
25X1
July 3, 1975
25X1
-2-
Approved For - 88000500040022-0
 Approved For Rel
Commodity Issues: Dialogue of the Deaf
The developed countries in the Organisation
for Economic Cooperation and Development are hav-
ing trouble agreeing on how to cope with the the
demands of the developing states on a better deal
for their raw material exports.
1'he developing states, for their part, are
nit taking any initiative to moderate tY-eir de-
mands that are embodied in the declaratio~i for a
new international economic order a,.d the Charter
of Economic Rights and Duties of States. The
situation adds up to a deadlock that could inten-
sify the quarrel between developed and developing
states at the special session of the UN General
assembly this fall. It could also derail an
attempt to convene a new conference of oil pro-
ducers and consumers.
At the recently concluded first meEting of a
high-level group established by the OECD minister-
ial council to discuss commodity issues, the dele-
gates put off until fall--after the special iJN
session--any further discussion of possible re-
plies to developin~~ countries' demands for a new
deal on trade in raw materials. The delegates
could not agree on a general approach and indivi-
dual objections stymied those specific proposals
that were floated. The debate followed expected
lines:
--the French urged development of commodity
agreements.
--the Germans rejected commodity agreemF~ts
and pushed for an earnings stabilization
program for developing states with some
July 3, 1975
Approved For Release 2005/04/22: CIA-RDP86T00608FR000500040022-0
25X1
25X1
 Approved For Release 2005/04/22: CIA-RDP86T006g8R000500040022-0
25X1
similiarities to the earnings stabiliza-
tion plan which the EC has inaugurated
with 46 developing states in Af rica, the
Caribbean and the Pacific--Bc-nn wants the
IMF to fund the tab for a global scheme.
--the Australians endorsed both price st.abi~-
iz~ation through commodity agreements aY~d
earnings stabilization to pick up the
slack.
The high-level group agreed to study several
specific commodities but insisted that the selec-
tion in no way bound the OECD countries to support
these markets. Selected were: rubber, copper,
cocoa, hard fibers, tea, jute and sugar.
Earlier in the w::~ek the members of the Inter-
national Energy Agency ,~?et and reaffirmed their
support for reconvening a conference of oil pro-
ducers and consumers. These states--18 of the 24
OECD members--came no closer, however, to agree-
ing on substantive ways to 7eet the developing
countries' demands on raw materials. In the ab-
sence of concessions in this forum it is unlikely
that the producer/ccrosumer conference can be re-
convened before the special UN session or the OPEC
experts conference at which new oil. prices will be
set.
The dialogue of the deaf which is blocking
progress on any front in relations betwaen rich
and poor states was clearly reflected in the meet-
ing between a representative of the West German
government--one of the most conservative industrial-
iz-~:d states--and the President and oil minister of
Algeria--the firebrand of radical developing states.
The German official is on a good-will tour
of those states involved in the Paris energy con-
ference of April and intends to demonstrate Bonn's
"genuine interest" in the resumption of an energy
July 3 , l9 75
25X1 _4_
Approved For F~elease 2005/04/22: CIA-RDP86T006p8R000500040022-0
 25X1
Approved For Relea~
conference and in finding ways to close the gap
between the positions of the developed and develop-
ing states
The Algerians reiterated their usual stand
that they do not intend to play their trump--oil
and oil prices--in the absence of concessions
from the industrialized states. The German count-
ered that the industria]ized states cannot be ex-
pected to play their own trump--th:~:iz technological
know-how--without concessions from the oil pro-
ducers and softening of the developing countries'
demands. The meetings were polite, though criti-
ism of Germany was sharp, and both sides expressed
"grave concern" for the state of the world economy,
k,~it the concern is evidently not yet sufficient
to generate movement on matters of fundamental
principle.
25X1
July 3, 1975
Approved For Relea$
0500040022-0 25X1
 25X1 gpproved For Release 2005/04/22 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000500040022-0
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000500040022-0
 25X1
Approved For Re
Portuguese Pilitary Leaders Seek to Avoid Power
Confrontation with Security Forces
The Portuguese Revolutionary Council has re-
versed its decision to turn the Catholic radio
station--now occupied by leftwing workers--back
to the Church, and backed down on a train fare
hike that had drawn a storm of protest.
The decision to return the stata.on to the
Church--announced on Tuesday by Prime P~inister
Goncalves and Information Pti.nister Jesuino--led
to a bitter outcry by the station workers and
several ext_-eme leftwing factions. The Council,
apparently sensitive to criticism from these groups,
decidzd instead to nationalize all radio stations
and t.o open the?airwaves to "all forces," including
both the Church and the workers.
The Council's decision followed an all-night
session and is not yet backed by proper legisla-
tion. Unril the decree-law is completed, the
Catholic radio station will remain in the hands
of the military commission that has run the staS~ion
since last P4arch.
The Church hierarchy, having threatened a
break with the government if the station is not
returned to ecclesiastical control, is not likely
to accept the Council's decision in silence.
If military leaders had backed the first
stand and decided to remove the workers by force,
they would have risked a clash with the increas-
ingly independent security troops who might have
refused to carry out the order. The Council cannot
risk such a challenge to its authority at this timz
and is apparently backing off from any such con-
frontation.
July 3, 1975
25X1
Approved For Release 2005/04/22: CIA-RDP86T0060>~R000500040022-0
 25X1
Approved For Rele
The current wave of social ~.anrest in Portugal
is mainly attributable to extreme leftwing groups,
some of which are closely connected with the se-
curi ty forces and its commander, General Otelo de
Carvalho. The extremists have discovered that, in
many cases, pressures tactics will get them what
they want. In the case of the continuing negotia-
tions over control of the Socialist newspaper
Republica, for instance, both the Socialist manage-
ment and the Cor~irrtunist-lining workers reportedly
are ready to reach a compromise in order to end the
dispute. Union me;rbers sympathetic to the extreme
left, however, appear to have split with the Com-
munists and by refusing to modify their pcsition,
have further confused the situation.
If the discussions remain deadlocked, the
government may be forced to impose a solution.
Information Minister Jesuino has hinted that set-
tlement of the dispute may again require the
government to assume control and appoint military
officers to the editorial board. Jesuino also has
announced that the government intends to create a
state press agency to regulate all newspapers and
plans to reduce the number, size, and distribution
of papers "because of salary and paper cost increases."
The Armed Forces Movement has come under in-
creasing criticism by the far left and reportedly
has become the butt of a growing number of popular
jokes. The unwillingness of the Revolutionary
Council to take a stand and their to stick by it
only adds fuel to leftwing charges of governmental
weakness.
The extremists are also sniping at the Communists
who are being criticized for their reluctance to
speak out against the military government. The far
left seized on the hike in train fares--effective
July 1--to accuse the transportation minister, a
member of the Communist Party. of i ni i-i ai-i nrr ~~a?i-; _
worker" policies.
July 3, 1975
Approved For Relea$e 2005/04/22: CIA-RDP86T00608ROq
25X1
0500040022-0 25X1
 X1
25X1
Approved For
These instances of the Revolutionary Council
backing down in the face of opposition points up
the Armed Forces DZovement's susceptibility to pres-
sure as well as its desire to appear to be on the
side of the workers. The policy reversal also
illustrates the shifting majority within the
Council.
The US Embassy in Lisbon has identified three
factions within the 30-man Council and has estimated
Their comparative strength as follows:
--Communist sympathizers, numbering six led
by Prime D4inister Goncalves.
--Left Nationalists; the largest faction,
with 13 supporters, led by Admiral Rosa
Coutinho and General Otelo de Carvalho.
--Democratic Socialists; nine adherents :~.ed
by President Costa Gomes, Foreign P4irister
Antunes, and the chiefs of the three armed
services.
The newly formed 11-man central committee of
the Revolutionary Council--charged with overseeing
the Council's daily business--does not seem to re-
flect this power balance. The moderates, or demo-
cratic socialists, appear to have placed five
members on the central committee, as compared to
four for the left nationalists, and only one fc~
the Communist-leaning group--Prime Pninister
Goncalves. One committee member appears to be
an independent.
Numbers do not tell the whole story, however,
as is evident in the seemingly contradictory state-
ments and decisions issued by the Council. The
July 3, 1975
25X1
Approved Fob
 Approved For R~
factions align differently on vario>s issues and
only a few of the members are solidly committed
to any particular line. The US embassy credits
the moderates strength to the prestige and power
of persuasion brought to the deliberations by such
officers as President Costa Gomes and Foreign
flinister Antunes. The pro-Communist group benefitn
by being able to bring a unified world view into
a group that is frequently marked by indecision
and confusion. The left nationalists, on the other
hand, may be the most flexible, and both Admiral
Rosa Coutinho and General Carvalho carr consi
able prestige.
25X1
July 3, 1975
Approved For R~
25X1
25X
 25X1 gpproved For Release 2005/04/22 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000500040022-0
Next 3 Page(s) In Document Exempt
Approved For Release 2005/04/22 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000500040022-0