STAFF NOTES: MIDDLE EAST AFRICA SOUTH ASIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000400040035-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 5, 2012
• Sequence Number: 35
• Publication Date: August 7, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/05: CIA-RDP86T00608R000400040035-7
Confidential
ELEE ?crrr9o
Middle East
Africa
South Asia
Confidential
X34
No. 0839/75
August 7, ]975
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 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/05: CIA-RDP86T00608R000400040035-7
i (JUN,F'IDENTIAL
MIDDLE EAST - AFRICA - SOUTH ASIA
This publication is prepared for re{jional specialists in the Washington com-
munity by the Middle East - Africa Division. Office of Current Intelligence,
with occasional contributions from other offices within the Directorate of
Intelligence. Comments and queries are welcome. They should be directed to
the authors of the individu l articles.
Bahrain: Political Assessment . . . . . . . . . J.
Libya: Another -'rump in Oil Output . . . . . . . 3
Aug 7, ..975
CONFIDENTIAL
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/05: CIA-RDP86T00608R000400040035-7
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CIA-RDP86T00608R000400040035-7 U'UN III Du N'h AL
Bahrain
Bahrain, approaching its fourth independence
day on August 14, is politically stable and more
prosperous than Bahrainis imagined possible a few
years ago, according to the US ambassador there.
Neverthieless, he points out, the developments of the
past six months have been sobering for Amir Isa al-
Khalifa and the rest of the ruling family. Renewed
hassling between the Khalifas and the fractious
national assembly for supremacy on the Persian Gulf
island can be expected when the legislature recon-
venes in October.
Manama's strategy for dealing with the assembly
worked well during the first half of the legislative
year which began last October. That strategy called
for isolating and keeping off balance both the
radical leftists and the conservative Shia Muslims
in the assembly, while building up a solid body of
supporters among the independent-minded centrist
deputies by sponsoring progressive social and eco-
nomic legislation.
The erosion of centrist support for the govern....
ment began in January 1975 during debates over eco-
nomic policy and over the stationing agreement whi':b,
permits the presence of the US Navy's Middle East
Force on the island. Executive-legislative relations
took on a much harsher note in the spring, when
controversy erupted over the government's tough
internal security decree. By mid-1975, the two
branches had reached an impasse and Amir Isa ordered
the recess of the assembly. The government has since
imposed tough press censorship to prevent further
public debate on the law-and-order question.
The government is now bracing for a renewal of
conflict when the assembly begins its third session
this fall. The security decree is still up in the
air. Along-promised labor law remains on the
(Continued)
Aug 7, 1975 1
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CIA-RDP86T00608R000400040035-7 CONFIDENTIAL
agenda; leftists in Bahrain have been trying for
years to get a law permitting the establishment
of unions. The Khalifa government will almost
certainly be challenged about inflation, wages,
i,nd the insufficiency of public services.
Manama has already backed away from another
confrontation with thn assembly and nationalist
opinion by refusing to approve an indefinite presence
fc-,: US naval forces. The government's freedom of
action on the stationing agreement was also restricted
by recent talk about Gulf cooperation; Manama felt
compelled to get on the bandwagon about removing all
foreign military presence in the area.
The Bahraini prime minister claims the Kha].ifas
do not intend to abandon constitutional and parlia-
mentary procedures, but he does express unhappiness
about the deputies' unwillingness to cooperate in
solving the country's "real problems." There have
been hints that the government may decide to dissolve
the current assembly and call for new elections before
Aug 7, 1975 2
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CIA-RDP86T00608R000400040035-7 ""j `1 i '' IN 11L
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CONFIDENTIAL
Libya
Another Jump in Oil Output
Libyan oil production continues to expand
rapidly, largely in response to a price cut on
June 1. According to the Petroleum Intelligence
Weekly, output reached an estimated 2 million
barrels per day in July, 500,000 barrels per day
higher than in rune and only 300,000 barrels per
day below the 1973 pre-embargo level. The indepen-
dent, US-based oil companies which operate conces-
sions in Libya--Occidental, Amerada Hess, and
Marathon--accounted for most of the increase in
liftings.
The average cost of Libyan crude delivered to
the US east coast was reduced by about 50 cents on
June 1, to about $11,60 per barrel. It is now
cheaper in the US market than comparable Nigerian
crudes and lower-quality Saudi crudes because of
transportation differentials. Libyan crudes fare
well in the European market; they lose their edge
only when competing against Persian Gulf crudes
transported in supertankers chartered at extremely
low rates.
recent jump in gasoline consumption.
Libyan sales have also benefited from an in-
crease in demand for light crudes accompanying the
Aug 7, 1975
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/07/05: CIA-RDP86T00608R000400040035-7