STAFF NOTES: LATIN AMERICAN TRENDS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300120010-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 21, 2005
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: March 12, 1975
• Content Type: REPORT

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?cret
Latin American Trends
Secret
123
March 12, 1975
No. 0500/75
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CON'I'I: N'I'S
March 12, 1975
SA-3s for Cuba? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Cuba: The Party is Immortal .
Guatemala-UK-Belize:
Srnftened Stance 3
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Haiti: Stamp Scandal . . . . . . . .
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SA-3s for Cuba?
0
The SA-3 is used against aircraft flyin
The Soviets have supplied SA-3 equipment to
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and Egypt.
March 12, 1975
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Cuba. The Party is Immortal
The theme "man is mortal but the party is im-
mort:,.,l" has been showing up more frequently in the
Cuban press. Taken from a Castro speech, the phrase
imp,Jiea that the Cuban Revolution has become so in-
sti`,utionaljzed that Fidel's charismatic leadership
is no longer essential. With the first party con-
gruiss coming up late this year and government elec-
ti.)ns in 1976, the party may be tying to prepare
th7 population for the possibility of Castro's re-
s;i,gning either, his party or his government post.
A recent example of the theme appeared in the
pr,,.rty daily on February 14. In the space usually
reserved for ideological discussion, the daily re-
called the premonitions of disaster that accompanied
the news of the death of Lenin in 1924. In spite of
the dire predictions of the collapse of the Communist
movement that appeared in "the bourgeois press and
imperialist news services," the people of the Soviet
Union "closed ranks" and "a host of titans sustained
unchanged the union of workers and peasants soviet
republics...Lenin has died but his work lives on."
Although no attempt was made in the article to
draw a direct parallel between Soviet and Cuban
experience, there is a clear implication that should
Fidel disappear from the scene, his Revolution will
live on, sustained unchanged by a joint leadership
"of titans." What is unclear, however, is the
rationale for stressing the theme. A high party of-
ficial has told a foreign journalist that both Fidel
and President Dorticos will resign prior to next
year's elections but there was no suggestion that
either would not run for reappointment to his re-
spective office. Although evidence is lacking,there
is always the possibility that some condition of
health unknown outside of top circles in Havana (and
presumably Moscow) is forcing Castro to reduce his
activity and let others take u the baton of leader-
ship. F7 r
March 12, 1975
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Guatemala-UK-Belize: Softened Stance
Guatemala and Britain held talks in New York
last month on the future of Belize, the self-govern-
ing British colony that Guatemala claims as its own.
Details of the discussions are being kept secret,
but judging from a press release issued by the
Guatemalan Foreign Ministry, President Kjell Laugerud's
government has softened the country's traditional hard
line on Belizean independence.
The usual Guatemalan warning against unilateral
declaration of independence by Belize was prominent,
but with an interesting variation. Guatemala, the
statement said, is trying to maintain peace in the
region and to look for a constructive formula to solve
the territorial dispute.
Guatemala continues to insist that it cannot agree
to a grant of independence "behind its back," but ap-
parently now is open to an approach that would give
independence to Belize as part of an agreement involving
Guatemala in some way in Belizean affairs.
One plan that Guatemala has previously mentioned
involves taking control of Belizean territory south of
16 degrees 30 minutes north latitude. Such a plan would
be unacceptable to Belize, but it may provide the impetus
to begin talks on other access rights for Guatemala.
More evide;ice that the Guatemalans are rethinking
their position was a statement that the problem is no
longer merely a territorial dispute between the UK and
Guatemala--the rights of the Belizean people and their
expectation of self-determination must be acknowledged
as well.
The problem now becomes one of convincing Premier
George Price of Belize to accept some form of Guatemalan
March 12, 1975
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sovereignty. The chances for this are presently
bleak if Price's oft-spoken words that "independence
will come soon and will be total" are to be con-
sidered firm. He may, however, be more amenable to
looking at alternatives if he detects Guatemala's
position shifting to something less than acquisition
of Belizean territory.
March 12, 1975
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Haiti: Stamp Scandal
The discovery of a major attempted swindle could
have political repercu:xsionu reaching into the presi-
dential palace. influential Secretary of Commerce and
Industry Sorge Fourcand has been fired and faces crim-
inal charges for his allocjnd involvement in a scheme
to sell several million dollars worth of unauthorized
Haitian stamps and pocket the proceeds. According to
an official investigation, Fourcand and 15 others
used forged documents to contract with a US firm for
the printing and marketing of the stamps.
There may be good grounds for the charges against
Fourcand, but political factors also unquestionably
have played a role in his downfall. Despite his suc-
cesses in policies such as developing closer ties with
Caribbean neighbors and bargaining with US bauxite
firms, his aggressive style and his influence with the
President earned him powerful eneinies. His successor
in the cabinet apparently has ties to the conservative
group which includes Duvalier's sister Marie-Denise,
one of Fourcarid's critics. Now that Fourcand is gone,
the conservatives may try to discredit other "progres-
sive" technocrats in the government.
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March 12, 1975
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