EAST ASIA BRIEF 190-75.4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010092-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 26
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 26, 2001
• Sequence Number: 92
• Publication Date: December 10, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

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IN AN APPAREi`JT ATTEMI-'T TO AVCID ANY CONFUSION
ABOUT THE PRIMARY TARGET OF PEKING'S BLAST, THE AR-
TICLE EMPLOYED LAtdGUAGE THAT PLAYED DOWN THE SIGNIFI-
CANCE OF CLAIMS OTI~ER PARTIES HAVE TO THE SPRATLY
ISLANDS- THE NA'T'IONALIST CHINESE CLAIM ALLOF THE
ISLANDS AND MAINTAIN A MILITARY GARRISON ONONE, BUT
THE PEOPLE'S DAILY REFERENCE TO THE FACT THAT MANY
OF THE ISLANDS ARE STILL NOT ^TN CHINESE HANDS^
RULES OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT PEKING WAS REFERRING
TO THE fATIONALIST PRESENCE THERE. PEKING TS DOUBT-
LESSLY CONFIDENT THAT NATIONALIST CLAIMS WILL BE RE-
::SOLVED WHEN THE MUCH LARGER TAIWAN QUESTION IS SETTLED-4'
THE PkTILIPPINES ALSO CLAIM SOME OF THE ISLANDS
LATE: '
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PAOR OP PAOE3
IN THE SPRATLY GROUP. PEKING HAS NEVER MADE AN IS-
I] IN Dfi% DISSEM gY:
Q NO IN OE%
Q RETURN TO PER
SUE OF MANILA'S CLAIMS, HOWEVER, AND, WHEN DIPLOMATIC
RELATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES WERE ESTABLISHED
EARLIER THIS YEAH BOTH SIDES AGREED TO SETTLE ALL
BILATERAL DISPUTES WITHOUT RESORT TO FORCE. PEKING
SEEMS PREPARED TO PU'T ASIDE THE DISAGP.EEMENT WITH MANILA.M
ALTHOUGH PEOPLE'S DAILY LEFT NO DOUBT THAT HANOI
WAS THE MdJ~R OBJECT OF ZTS WRATH, ITS ATTACK 4N HANOI
WAS IMPLICIT: REFERENCES TO MOSCOW IN THE BLAST WERE
EXPLICIT AND VITUPERATIVE, LEAVING NO QUESTION THAT
PEKING BELIEVES TI?IE V~'ETPlAMESE ARE ABETTING THE SO-
VIETS IN AN ATTEMPT TO EXPAND RUSSIAN INFLUENCE INTO
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANTLY THE ARTICLE WAS PUBLISHED
ONLY TWO DAYS AFTER LE DUAPJ RETURNED TO HANOI FROM
MOSCOW--WHERE HE RECEIVED A MUCH WARMER WELCOME THAN
.HE HAD IN PEKING, GAINED A SOVIET AGREEMENT TO PRO-
";VIDE SUBSTANTIAL ECONOMIC AID TTO NORTH VIETNAM, AND
`.SECONDED MOSCOW'S VIEWS ON DETENTE AND ON INTERNA-
DATE:
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TIONAL PEACE AND SECURITY. PEKING INST_STS THAT E30TH
M^lSAO^ NANOUN6 IN DIUITOR DATe?TIM^ GROUP
CONF: INFO: Fllt
i
DETENTE AND THE RECENT HELSINKI SECURITY PACT ARE
SOVIET "TRICKS^ DESIGNED TO FACILITATE WHAT THE CHI-
NESE SEE AS SOVIET "'EXPANSIONISM.^' LE DUAN'S'EN-
i10RSEMENT OF DETENTE PUTS HANOI S~tUARELY IN MOSCOW'S
CAMP ON AN ISSUE OF MAJOR IMPORTAfJCE TO THE CHINESE
^ INDrIf DISSEM BY;
^ No uroe>t
^ aeTVRNTO PER
^ IP rlLes ~{{
AND WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY RE,'~D IN F~EKING AS A AELIBERATE
PROVOCATiON.M
JCN FACT, THE TREATMENT LE DUEsN RECEIVED IN PEKING
iLAST SEPTEMBER CONTRASTS SHAt~ti;LY 6lITH THE ROUSING
WELCOME HE GOT IN MOSCOW. THERE tc~'AS NO JOINT COMMU-
NIQUE TO MARK HIS CHINA VISIT, IiN~~~ THE HANOI LEADER
FAILED TO TENDER Tf~E NORMAL FAREWELL BANP.UET PRIOR
TO HIS DEPARTURE FOR HOME?M
THE CHINESE CLEARLY SEE A CORRELA^'?ON BETWEEN
~HAN02?S INCREASING TILT TOWARD MOSCOW AND THE LOf~G-
-RANGE POSSIBILITIES FOR SOVIET ^MEDDLING" THROUGH
1VI~TNAM IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST
DATE:
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ASIA GENERALLY. IT ALSO IS APPARENT THAT THE CHINESE
CONSIDER CONTROL OF ISLANDS IN THE AREA VITALLY IM-
PORTANT TO THEIR SECURITY. THE PEOPLE'S DAILY AR-
TICLE, IN FACT, REFERS TO THE REGION AS ^Aiv IMF?ORTANT
GATE OF CHINA^ APJD TO THE ISLANDS AS LOCATED ON MAJOR
SHIPPING LANES.
FOR THEIR PART, THE SOVIETS HAVE BEEN SHARPLY
CRITICAL AF THE CF~INESE SEIZURE Oi= THE PARACELS.
SINCE EARLY 1974, 110SCOJ HAS ROUTINELY ATTACKED
CHINA'S CLAIMS TO ALL OF THE ISLANDS AND ITS USE OF
FORE IN THE PARACELS. THE SOVIETS, HOWEVER, HAVE
STOPPED SHORT OF PROVIDING OUTRIGHT SUPPORT TO HANOI'S
COUNTERCLAIMS. SOVIET MAPS STILL SHOW THE ISLANDS
AS BELONGING TO CHINA ALTHOUGH RECENT PIrESS COMMENTS
4HAVE IMPLIED THAT THEY WERE VIETNAMESE. PEKING
:IGNORED THESE ATTACKS UNTIL LAST WEEK. THEPJ, THE
PEOPLE'S DAILY ARTICLE ASSERTED THAT THE SOVIET
UNION, THROWING ASIDE EARLIER SUPPORT FOR CHINA'S
DATE:
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CLAIMS, MOUNTED A ^VENOMOUS^ ASSAULT ON PEKING
AFTER THE PARACELS INCTDENT.M
? PEKING'S LONG-TERM CONCERNS ALMOST CERTAINLY
HINGE ON ITS VIEW OF SOVIET INTENTIONS AND ACTIVITIEC.
CHINESE LEADERS ALSO SE'ES'! PERSUADED, HOWEVER, THAT
IN THE SHORTER RUN HANOI COULD UNILATERALLY DISRUPT
THEIR HOPES OF DEVELOPI~:~ A BLOC OF FRIENDLY COUNTRIES
ALONG' CHINA'S SOUTHERN BORDER. THE CHINESE AND VIET-
NAMESE SHARE VERY FEW COMMON PERCEPTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ASIA. THEY ARE CLEARLY ON OPPOSITE SIDES IM THE CUR-
RENT DISPUTE' BETWEEN THAILAND AND LAGS. HANOI HAS
VIGOROUSLY DEFENDi=D THE LAO SIDE AND HAS LAUNCHED
FREQUENT ATTACKS ON THAI ^AGGRESSION?^ PEKING, ON
THE OTHER HAND, HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY QUIET ON THE
,SUBJECT, PRIVATELY LOBBYING FOR A PEACEFUL SOLUTION
PTO THE DISAGREEMENT AND ENCOURAGING IMPROVED RELATIONS
:: BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES. THE CNI~:cJk H/'.VE BEEN BY
:AFAR THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTOP.S TO CAMBODIAN RECONSTRUC-
DATE
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TION SINCE THE COMMUNISTS TOOK OVER THERE LAST SPRING.
PEKING HAS ALSO MADE IT CLEAR THAT IT WAS ON CAMBODIA'S
SIDE IN HE BORDER DISPUTEWITH NORTH VIETNAM AND AP-
PARENTLY ENCOURAGED THE CAMBODIAN COMMUNISTS TO. OPEN
DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS ?~fITH 1'hAILAND. ?ESECRET3?M
2. CHINA: TWO TOP LEADERS HAVE RECENTLY REAPPEARED AFTER
SIGNIFICANT ABSENCES. CHIANG CHING WAS PRESENT ON
DECEMBER 1 AT THE MEETING AND PICTURE TAKING SESSION
~3ETWEEN PRESZDE!`:T FORD AND CiiINESE OIEAD OF STATE CHU
TE. HEFT LAST APPEARANCE WAS ON OCTOBER 15 AT THE
CLOSING SESSION OF THE NATIONAL TACHAI CONFERENCE IN
PEKING. CHIANG'S POLITICAL POWER HAS BEEN SHARPLY ?
DIMINISHED THIS YEAR, AND HER APPEARANCES NOW SEEM TO
BE UNDER THE, CONTROL OF REGIME MODERATES AND DESIGNED
:TO PROMOTE AN IMAGE OF UNITY. IN THE PAST, MADAMP;:
MAO TENDED TO PUNCTUATE PE~tIODS OF NONAPPEARANCES
::WITH PUBLrC ACTIVITIES THAT WERE DESIGNED TO RAISE
:,RATHER THAN LOWER POLITICAL TENSIONS. HER ASSOCIATION
DATE:
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iNDex DISSEM 8Y:
D NO IN DEx
Q nerunn r0 PER
[~ it roes
WITH TILE TACHAI MEETING WAS OBVIOUSLY i1EANT TO PRESENT
A UNITED FRONT FOR THIS MAJOR UNDERTAKING. HER
PRESENCE AT THE MEETING IilITH PRESIDENT FORn IS DE-
SIGNED TO Cr~NVEY THE SAME MESSAGE--THE SUPPORT OF THE
POLIT_TCAL LEFT FOR SINO-US RELATIONS.4'
THE OTHER REAPPEARANCE WAS DEFENSE MINISTER YEH
CHIEN-YING, WHO HEADED THE CHINESE P.EFrRESENTATION AT
THE PEKING CELEBRATIONS OF ALBANIAN NATIONAL DAY 9N
114VEMBER 29? YEN fIAD NOT APPEARED SINCE OCTOBER 25
AND IS WIDELY RUMORED TO BE ILL. SURPRISINGLY, YEH
DID NOT SEE PRESIDENT FORD EVEN THOUGH HE PLAYED AN
IMPORTANT ROLE iN PAST MEETINGS WITH RANKING US OF-
FICIALS. YEH~S PLACE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN TAKEN BY
ANOTHER CHOU, EN-LAI STALWART, VICE PREt'iIER AND LEAD-
,ING ECONOMIC SPECIALIST LI HSIEN-NIFN. {CONFIDENTIAL}
" E-2 ii`iPDET?ri
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sccRET No~Orrd
WEST~f~ y ~~ cMiSP~9EftE 9RiF' P ~'~~3-75 ? i~
PARAGi1AY: PARAGUAY, TN rTS l7U~'PER POSITIt3,?d bETWEEi~ TliE LARGE
COUl~TRIES JR ARGEt~TIP~IA AO~D SRAZYL, t~AS It1 THE PAST GErdl~'ALIY DaS-
PE;~SE~D SEPARATE Qi1T f10Rc OR LESS, EAUA~. TRE:Artic N7? IT HAS t~b0'C
NECESSdRILY I~EEtd 7RYINC. 40 PLAY OME EIG POKER APP A~-AI~iST THE
OTHi~R 9UT a1AS C~EECd TRYIRf TO GARQ~Eit TIE ADVA~tY'A6ES Pl~O~t tCAClI
RELATaONS~IIP WITHOUT' ALLOtdING EYT~iirP~ LARGER COUtJTRY T8 DOl92gATE
PARAGUAYA~d A!F!'AtRS? Te~ADiTIONA~.LY, TiiE PARAGUAYRI'dS NAVE IDt;raTgPiE9
CUL'PUi7ALLY ~TTM Tt~E ARGENTX~3ES? 'PHE GOVERMflEi+iT, H06~IEVE.~, VIED
THE GOVERtlF~EAC4 Of ISABEL PER~1N AS t9NSTA6lE, IS COfi1CERNED Abt-UT
A POSSI@lE TURN TO~iARD 7HE LEFT i~Y AR6ENTIr~A, At+D IS t~Gid Z?dDIC~-TIN6
A 14AKKED TILT IN THE DiRECTIO~t OP QRA2iL+ YHItt-! PARAGUAY VIEGiS AS
A FUTURE t04RLD POKER CHOSE ECOWOf~IC it~TlRESTS Its LATIN AMERICA COULD
ASSIST PARA6UAYAl~ DEVELOPl~ENT? Y
T~9IS TxLT aIAS PARTiCULA-tLY EVIDENT DUK'ZN6 Td~E VYSIT 70 PARAGUAY
? 3Y #7t~AYIt,'~A~6 PRESIDENT GEISEL I!~ EARIY DECE~l~3ER. POMP AHD CEREt40~1Y'
ATTENDED THE FIRST VYSIT A!~ !~ 6RAZILIAN CHIE~~' OP STATE ZF~ bS YEARS+
ACID THE 60VEitNMENT DLCLAt~ED A ~f~iREE-DAY HOIIgA,Y POR PE~bLYC EtiP~.OYEES?
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SECRET aoPOar~
PREPARATiOHS iP1Ct.UAEb A CRACKDOYA3 ON COMr1U~fXST PARTY rlEM~Ei3S Rr~D
SlJ3VfRSxVE'S, aITI~ T!~E raUt18ER OP ARl~E3TS 1~UP10t?ED AS aiIGN AS 4f)U
AI,TI~O~DG!? OPFTIGIAt. PECORva ACP~l~Or~LEDGED O~tIY A?Ot1T ONE-TENTi! AS MA~iY.~
PRESIDEPdT GEI ;El. RECE$VED THE HIGHt:ST DECORATS4N PARAGUAY BESTOJS
4i~ A PaRe:I6N OPPICIAI., A!ib HE !t#TURNED A PRICEt.IwSS COLA 8A0~ CAPTIiRED
tiY `ENE BRAZTl.I6,E~iS I~f THE WAR aP THE TRlapt,E AI~IAAiCE SOrE I~~ YEAitS
AGO. itOi~E C4~aC~ETE ACCOl1P~.iSt~tllrrdTS ZHCLUDED THE DETTLEIIENT OP A
80ui~DARY DISPl.iTir THE GRANTI~iG TO E~ARAGklA~l Ole 03.5 43It.LI4N IN CREDITS
POf+, CONS~~'i~lrCTIOPt OP TMC ZTAIPU 4~~YDROE4,ECTRIC PROJECY, dedD Ti~lE SIGNIt~tG
Ole A MEU 'TQBATY OP PRIEItDSNIP AHD COOPERATiOM CAl,IIHG POR E~?E~YSIV~5X6
l31tAXIlYAN YNVOLVE4IEMT IPI WRIgAGUAYAN AEVELOPNENT?M '
PttAJECT? ~R'A'Il. HANTS TO DRAY PARAGUAY CLOSER INTA ITS SPHERE OP
INPI.UEAiCE ALIT IS At,SO CO~ICERFIED AOOUT ltf`CTYOf~ PROM A1~6EHTINA AND
PROd~ ~O~,I~~A AS fdEl,iL. AL,TNOUGN 80SN COUNTRIES HOPE TA AVBID aEEDt.~ss
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QFPCNSE idxT~l TNE1~R NEW TREJITY, TFIEY Al~E NOT AT ALl StfRE TFIIS IS
P4SSI8l.E? {CONt~IDENTIAL} E~~ IMPDET?-1
DECEMBER 10. 175
1q2?
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MIDDLE EAST AFRICA BRIEF 19D-75.M
D INOf 1(
D NO INO[N
D RgTVRN TO
1. LEBANON: RADICAL MUSLIM FORCES HAVE GAINED CONTROL OF SOME
PREVIOUSLY CONTESTED GROUND DURING THE kEAVY FIGHTING IN BEIRUT
TI{IS WEEK . 5'
THE CHRISTIAN AND MUSLIM COMBATANTS AND THE LEBANESE SECURITY
f=ORCES SEEK CONTROL OF K-_`t HOTELS TO GAIN A COMMANDING FIELD OF
FIRE OVER DISPUTED TERRITORY IN ADJOINING C~IGH80RHOODS. 'THE
LEFTIS ~'S, WHO OCCUPIED THE ST. GEURGES HOTEL O,N MONDAY, LATE
ON TUESDAY WERE VYING WITH ARMY TROOPS FAR CONTROL OF 'fHF= PHOENICIA
HOTELS'
RIGHT-WING PHALANGIST MILITIAMEN EVACUATED THE PHOENICIA
DURING A BRIEF LOCAL TRUCE. THEY SUFFERED HEAVIER CASUALTIES
THAN THEIR MUSLIM OPPONENTS, WHO APPARENTLY HAD MOVED IN HEAVIER
WEAPOPlS, INCL!IDING ANTI-AIRCRAFT GUNS SUPPLIED BY THE FEDAYEEN.
-THE PHALANGISTS~ WHO CLAIMED LAST NIGHT TO HOVE MADE GAINS TN
OTHER AREAS, ARC HOLDING OUT ALONG A FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
-HOTEL DISTRICT TO BEIRUT PORT. THEY USE THIS CORRIDOR TO SUPPLY
THEIR FORCES IN THE HOTEL. DISTRICT FROM MORE SECURE PHALA NGIST
DATE ._ . .n
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ca.nsswPKAT?o< REPRODUCTION BY T?TNFR THAN THP ICC.u-ur_ neeire ~e oonu~nrrrn ____
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AG^ COI AC? TOIL TI[ YRO UCI
0 woc>t DISSEM BY:
^ NO IND[If '
0 aeTUnN ro PER
STRONGHOLDS SOUTH OF THE PORT.4'
THE LEFTIST FORCES ARE LED BY IBRAi~IM QULAYLAT, A RADICAL
LEBANESE MUSLIM EIACKEr BY LIBYA AND SOME PALESTINIAN FEDAYEEN
GROUPS. HIS INDEPENDENT NASSERI'I'E M01,~EMENT HAS SOME 400-500
M3LITIA,MEN AND CAN DRAW ON SUB;CTANTIAL BACKING FROM REJECTIONIST
PALESTINIANS, RADICALS WITHIN THE MAJOR FEDAYEEN GROUPS, AND
LEBANESE COMMUNISTS. QULAYLAT RCPEATED CHARGES ON TUESDAti' THAT
LEBANESE ARf1Y TROOPS WERE FIRING ON MUSLIM FORCES, AND SAID HIS
FOLLOWEP,S WOULD RETALIATE. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS
FROM BEIRUT, SEVERAL ARMY VEHICLES WERE FIRED ON BY MUSLIM
AND PALESTINIAN FORCES, ANA AT~LEAST TWO ARMY COMMANDOS WERE
KILLED ? 5'
LEBAf~ON'S POLITICAL LEADERS SO f-AR HAVE COME UP WITH NO
STRATEGY FOR ENDING THE RENEWED FIGHTING. THE BEST HOPE IS THAT
THE LEFTISTS--WHO ARE CLAIMING VICTORY-WILL CJNVINCE THE~iSEI_VES
=THAT THEIR LIMITED MILITARY GAINS CONSTITUTE SUFFICIENT REVENGC
"FOR THE MURDER OF NUMEROUS MUSLIMS BY PHALANG':'~.,TS LAST WEEKEND.
~?THE ID AL-ADHA MUSLIM HOLIDAY THAT STARTS LATE THl'S WEEK MAY
r,
DATE:
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PROVIDE AN EXCUSE FOR BOTH SIDES TO STOP THE FIGHTING. i:SECRET}
E-Z IMPDET.rI
o~~: DECEMBER 10, b`175
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EUROPEAN BRIEF 190-75.M
1. USSR: GENERAL SECRETARY BREZHNEV`S SPEECH AT THE pOLxS H.
PARTY CONGRESS ~~N TUESDAY WAS SHORT ON SUBSTANCE, BUT REPEATED
RECENT CRITICISM OF THE WEST.M ~..
AS WAS APPROPRIATE TO THE OCCASION, BREZHNEV DEVOTED OVER
HALF OF THE SPEECH TO TALKING A80UT THE STEPS TAKEN TOWARD
CLOSER ECONOMIC ANA POLITICAL COOPERATION BETWEEN POLAND AND
THE USSR, AND, MORE GENERALLY, ABOUT THE BENEFICCNCE OF 'fHE
COMMUNIST COMMUNITY. HC REFERRED TO THE NORMS OF ^SOCTALIST
TNTERNATIONALISM^-WORDS THAT IN YUGOSLAVIA AND ROMANIA TRAIJSLATE
TO SOVIET HEGEMONISM-BUT FIE QUICKLY FOLLOWED WITH A SENTENCE
ALLUDING TO THE INDEPENDENCE AND SOVEREIGNTY OF fHE STATES THAT
MAKE UP THE COMMUNIST COMMUNITY .4'
IN COMMENTING ON RELATIONS WITH THE WEST, CSCE WAS CLEARLY
~-ON BREZHNEV'S MIND, PERHAPS BECAUSE THE POLISH PARTY CONGRESS
~~OFFERED AN APPROPRIATE VENUE FOR REPEATING A FEW ^TRUTH S^ ABOUT
=.'fHE HELSINKI AGREEMENT. HIS DEMAND THAT NO SINGLE ~~SPECT OF
THE AGREEMENT BE EMPHASIZED OVER ANOTHER AND I+IS CRITsCISM OF
DATE:
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^ IF Fu.u? ~'
THE WEST FOR ITS ALLEGED FAILURE TO DISSEMINATE TWE TEXT
SUFFICTEi~!'iLY HAVE BEEN SAID BEFORE; S0, T00, .HAS HIS REFERENCE
TO ^IDEOLOGICAL PENETRATION^ BY TFIE WEST. HE MADE EXPLICIT
REFERENCE TO TFiE FOLLOW-UP CSCE SESSION IN BELGRADE IN 197?
AND SPOKE FAVORABLY OF THE POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZING EUROPEAN
CONGRESSES TO ADDRESS SUCH PROBLEMS AS THE ENVIRONMENT AND
ENERGY OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS. THIS CLEARLY WAS MEANT AS A
TRIAL BALLOON, AND MORE WILL PROBABLY BE HEARD FRtlM MOSCOW ON
THIS MATTER. 4'
BREZHNEV'S SPEECH AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, TS AS INTERESTING
FOR WHAT HE CHOSE NOT TO SAY AS FOR WHAT HE ACTUALLY SAT D. THERE
lJAS NO REJOINDER, IMPLICIT OR EXPLICIT, TO CRITICISM REGARDING
SOVIET ACTIVITIES IN ANGOLA. HE MADE NO MENTION~OF
A COMP1l;NIST DUTY TO SUPPORT LIBERATION MOVEMENTS, NOR DID HE
PREFER TO THE INEVITABILITY OF CONTINUED IDEOLOGICAL STRUGGLE. HE
'.:DID REPEAT THE FAMILIAR FORMULATION ON MOVING AHEAD WITH DETENTE
DESPITE THE EFFORTS OF WESTERN CRITICS, BUT HE DID NOT SAY ANYTHING
'.EXPLICIT ABOUT SALT.4'
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BREZHNEV'S REMARKS A'd'TACKING ^SOME INFLUENTl'AL CIRCLES IN
THE WES T^ FOR THEIR CAMPAIGN OF ^DISINFORMATION AND SLANDER^
AGAINST THECOMMUNIST CAMP ARE AMONG HIS MOST INTEMPERATE IN
THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS. {CONFIDENTIAL}4'
,-y YUGOSLAVIA-USSR: THE YUGOSLAV MINISTERS OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
AND 9F FORF_IGN TRADE ARE IN h~OSCOW TO SIGN A LONG-RANGE
ECONOMIC AGREEMENT AND TO MAKE A FIRST-HAND ASSESS-
MENT CF PRE--CONGRESS POLITICS IN THE SOVIET CAPITAL.M
THE CONCLUSION OF A FIVE YEAR TRADE AGREEMENT
FOR x,976-80 WILL PROBABLY BE THE PUBLIC HIGHLIGHT
OF THE VISITS' '
ON THE POLITICAL SIDE, FOREIGN MINISTER MINK'S ?
TALKS--POSSIBLY THE FINAL ONES AT THIS LEVEL BEFORE
THE CPSU CONGRESS MEETS IN FEBRUARY--PROMISE TO BE
~~LESS REWARDING. BELGRADE CLEARLY IS f~vT SATISFIED
-WITH RECENT SOVIET DENIALS OF INVOLVEMENT WITH
COMINFORMIST SUBVERSTVESe THE TWO COUNTRIES AP.E
'?ALSO DEADLOCKED OVER CONFLICTING GOALS IN THE~LONG--
DATE:
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POSTP1~JEll MEETING OF EUROPEAN COMMUNIST PARTIES.4'
BELGRADE AND MOSCOW BOTH SUPPORT THE MPLA IN
ANGOLA, BUT THEIR STANDS ON THE LAST SINAI ACCORDS
ARE IN CONFLICT AND COULD CAUSE TROUBLE. SIiMILARLY,
f1INIC COULD FACE SOVIET DISPLEASURE OVER THE YUGO-
SLAV PREMIER'S PRECEDENT-SETTING VISIT TO CHINA
THIS FALL.M
YUGOSLAV MEDIA ARE PLAYING SEVERAL TUNES ON
THE MTNIC VISIT. FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE WEST, THE
PRESS IS INSISTING THAT RELATIONS WITH THE SOVIETS
ARE MORE OR LESS NORMAL--AND THUS NOT SUSCEPTIBLE
TO THIP.D PARTY MANIPULATION. A CCi1MENTARY BROAD-
CAST TO MOS:.OW LAST WEEK, HOWEVER, REASSERTED BEL-
GRADE'S N!~NALIGNED PRINCIPLES, INCLUDING ITS CON-
D INDeII DISSEM BY:
D NO INDef
^ neTUnn To PER
-~TINUING STRUGGLE AGAINST ^HEGEMONY^ BY EITHEP. BLOC. {CONFI-
DENTIAL}'~
3. BULGARIA-YUGOSLAVIA: SOFIA HAS REPORTEDLY MADE A
FORMAL PROTEST TO BELGRADE ABOUT YUGOSLAV PROPAGANDA CLAIMS
DATE:
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BULGARIA HAS USED TERRORISM TO SUPPRESS ITS MACEDONIANS.
DESPITE THE PROTEST, YUGOSLAV MEDIA ARE AGAIN STEP-
PING UP THE PACE OF ANTI-BULGARIAN COMMENTARY?4'
ACCORDING 7'0 PRESS REPORTS, THE YUGOSLAV ?AMBAS-
SADOR TN SOFIA WAS SUMMONED TC THE FOREIGN MINISTRY
LAS'P MONTH TO RECEIVE TWE PROTEST. THE BULGARIANS
REPORTEnLY DECRIED ALLEGATIONS THAT SOFIA HAD AR-
RESTED NUMEROUS MACEDONIANS AND HAD DEPORTED TWEM
TO CAMPS IN THE NORTH. NEITHER SIDE HAS PUBLICLY
REFERRED TO THE PROTEST.4'
~,,
THE YUGOSLAV MEDIA HAVE NEVERTHELESS CONTINUED
TO REPEAT AND EVEN Ef18ELLISH THESE SAME ALLEGATIONS ?
IN THE WAKE OF THE BULGARIAN CENSUS LAST WEEK. THE
LATEST COMMENTARY FLATLY STATES THERE WAS NO CATE-
I~GORY FOR MACEDONIANS, AND NOTES THE SURVEY ONLY
-:SERVED SOFIA'S POLITICAL PURPOSES BY PROCLAIMING
' ~ THAT MACEDONI^,NS ARE ETHNIC BULGARIANS.4'
',~-~ THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LONG-STANDAING
DATEr
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DISPUTE SHATTER THE CLIMATE OF UNEASY CALM THAT
LASTED BARELY TWO WEEKS AFTER BULGARIAN I~OREI(;N
MINISTER MLADENOV VISITED BELGRADE LAST MONTH?
MLADENOV AND HIS YUGOSLAV COUNTERPART, MILOS MI.NIC,
REPORTEDLY DISCUSSED THE ISSUE OF BELGRADE'S IN-
FLAMMATORY POLEMICS, BUT WERE UNABLE TO AGREE ON
MUZZLING BELGRADE'S OUTSPOKEN NATIONALISTS. {CON-
FInEEVTIAL}5'
4. CZECHOSLOVAKIA: THE HUSAK REGI'i'~E HAS IN RECENT WEEKS BEEN B~lit~~M
PAYSPaG LIP-SERVICE TO THE CONCEPT OF CONTINUITY OF CZECHO-
SLOVAK HISTORY.S'
THE EFFORT SEEMS DESIGNED TO REINFORCE THE AC- ?
~EPTANCE OF THE REGIME BY ITS OWN POPULATION AND TO
PP,OMOTE TTS IMAGE IN THE DIPLOMATIC ARENA. THE NEW
=STRESS ON LINKS WITH THE PAST MAY ALSO BE INTENDED
.TO COUNTER PRAGUE'S WELL-DESERVED REPUTATION FOR SUB-
rSERVIENCE TO MOSCOW.4'
I
'_ ~ ACCORDING TO A FOREIGN MINISTRY OFFICIAL,?PARTY
DATE
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CHIEF AND PRESIDENT HUSAK HAS THE HISTORICAL LINKAGE
IN MIND WHEN HE RECENTLY INVITED FOREIGN AMBASSADORS
AND CHIEFS OF MISSION TO THE FIRST PRES%DENTIAL HUNT
IN ALMOST 30 YEARS. THIS TRADITIONAL EVENT OF THE
OLD REPUBLIC WAS ABAfJDONED AFTER THE COMMUNISTS TOOK
POWER IN 1948.Y
FOREIGN MINISTER CHNOUPEK IS ALSO PROMOTING HIS-
TORICAL CONTINUITY- IN HIS ADDRESS `PO THE FEDERAL
ASSEBMLY LAST MONTH, HE HARKED BACK TO THE FOUNDING
OF THE REPUBLIC IN 1918 AND SEVERAL TIMES REFERRED T0~
CZECHOSLOVAK DIPLOMATIC "FIRSTS ?' HE ALSO DREDGED UP
THE APPEAL OF MEDIEVAL BOHEMIAN KING GEORGE OF PODE-
BRODY FOR AN INTEGRATED EUROPE.S'
IN ADDITION, PREMIER STROUGAL, DURING HIS CUR-
~:RENT TRIP TO YUGOSLAVIA, LAUDED THE SUPP04T OF THE
YUGOSLAVS FOR THEIR CZECHOSLOVAK F3RETHREN DURING THE
' = 1938 MUNICH DIKTAT PERIOD.'a'
.. TO AVOID POSSIBLE CHARGES THAT THIS KTND,;OF
DATE
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JTRESS ON PRE-COMMUNIST CZECHOSLOVAK HISTORY EN000R-
AGES fJATIONALTSM, THE HUSAK REGIME HAS 6EEN CAREFUL
TO PAY PROPER OBEISANCE TO THE SOVIETS AND TO CON-
TINUc TO BE ONE OF THE MOST VOCIFEROUS PROPONENTS OF
INTERNATIONALISM AND BLOC INTEGRATION. {CONFIDENTIAL}M
S. USSR: DIPLOMAT'LC SOURCES HAVE CONFIRMED EARLIER RE-
PORTS THAT' FORMER DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER NIKOLAY
PEGOV, 70, HAS BEEN APPOINTED CHIEF OF THE CPSU CEN-
TRAL COMMT_TTEE DEPARTMENT FOR CADRES ABROAD. IN AD-
~DITION, IZVESTIA ON DECEMBER 4 I.DE:NTTFIED PEGOV AS
^AMBASSADOR,^ NOT AS DEPUTY MINISTER OF FOREIGN AF-
FAIRS. THE CADRES ABROAD DEPARTMENT1' IS RARELY RE-
FERRED TO BY NAME IN THE SOVIET PRESS.4'
THE DEPARTMENT OVERSEES--FOR THE PARTY--THE
~'ACTTVITTES OF SOVIET FOREIGN SERVICE PERSONNEL SERV-
Ih~ ABROAD. PEGOV AS A DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER, WAS
RESPONSIBLE. FOR PERSONNEL MATTERS IN THE MFA.M
I ENDEP,S OF THE DEPARTMENT IN THE PAST HAVE, L~'KE
DATE:
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