EAST ASIA BRIEF 188-75.4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010090-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 28
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 26, 2001
• Sequence Number: 90
• Publication Date: December 8, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

Approved'Far Release 2001/48/21 : C1A-RDP86F00608R000300010080-9,
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Approved For Release 2001/08/21 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010090-0
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EAST ASIA BRIEF 1b8-7S?4'
1~ PORTUGUESE TIMOR: INDONESIA( ft00PS HAVE CAPTURED DILI,
THE CAPITAL OF PORTUGUESE fTMOR.4'
ON SUNDAY, INDONESIAN MARINES AND AIRBORNE TROOPS EQUIPPED
WITH US WEAPONS MOUNTED A FIJ~L-SCALE ATTACK AGAINST THE CITY
FOLLOWING A NAVAL BOMBARDMENT. THE UNITS MET LITTLE FRETILIN
RESISTANCE. FRETILIN LEADERS AND TROOPS FLED THE CITY BEFORE
IN ANTICIPATION OF THE FALL OF THE CAPITAL, THE FRETILIN
WEEKS AGO HAD BEGUN MOVING LARGE QUANTITIES OF SUPPLIES AND
AMMUNITION INTO THE MOUNTAINS, FROM WHICH THEY PLAN TO WAGE
GUERRILLA WAR AGAINST THE INDONESIANS .4'
INDONESIA, MEANWHILE, IS ATTEMPTING TO PORTRAY ITS ACT"IONS
IN THE BEST POSSIBLE LIGf~T. FOREIGN MZPJISTER MALIK, FOR EXAMPLE,
TOLD REPORTEr~S ON SUNDAY THAT INDONESIAN "VOLU NTEERS^ HAD INDEED
LANDED IN TIMER, BUT ONLY AFTER DILI HAD FALLEN TO INDIGENOUS
ANTI-FRETILIN FORCES AND ONLY IN RESPONSE TO A REQUEST FROM THESE
FORCES FOf< ASSISTANCE IN RESTORING SECURITY. HE DENIED THAT
DATE
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INDONESIAN FORCES WERE INVOLVED IN HEAVY?FIGHTING, OR THAT THEY
HAD SFIr:LLED OR CARRIED OUT AIR ATTACi:S AGAINST THE CAPITAL. 4'
MALIK 4LS0 INDICATED THAT A DELEGATION REPRESENTIiJG THE
FOUf~t PRO-INDONESIAN PARTIES ON TIMOR WOULD SOON DEPART FOR
THE UN TO LOBBY FOR APPROVAL OF THE INTEGRATION OF EAST TIMOR
INTO 1NDONESTA. 5'
LIS?BON HAS BROKEN RELATIONS WITH JAKARTA AND WILL ASK
THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL TO ORDER INDONESIA: ~'0 CEASE MILITARY
OPERATIONS. {CCNFI~DENTIAL} E-2 If1PDET~I
DATE:
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' SECRET NOFORN
EUROPEAN BRIEF 188-75.4'
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1? PORTUGAL PORTUGAL'S CENTRIST POPULAR DEMOCRATIC PARTY
HAS DROPPED ITS INFLEXIBLE STAND AGAINST COMMUNIST PARTICIPATION
IN THE GOVERNMENT, AVERTING A SHOWDOWN OVER THE ISSUE?'r'
AT A NATIONAL CONGRESS HELD OVER 'fHE IiEEKEND, POPULAR
DEMOCRATIC DELEGATES VOTED TO ALLOW THE PARTY TO CONTINUE TO
PARTICIPATE WITH THE COMMUNISTS IN THE PRESENT GOVERNMENT UNDER
CERTAIN CONDITIONS. MANY OF THE CONDITIONS EITHER HAVE ALREADY
BEEN MET OR COULD BE MET BY 'i'HE GOVERNMENT WITHOUT EXTREME
DIFFICULTY?4'
POPULAR DEMOCRATIC LE/:DERS, AFTER EXTENSIVE DEBATE, BACKED
AWAY FROM A CONFLICT WITH THE ANTUNES FACTION AND THE SOCIALISTS
OVER THE COMMUNIST ISSUE. THE FINAL RESOLUTION MAY HAVE BEEN
? A COMPROMISE TO AVOID SPLITTING THE CONSERVATIVE AND LEFTIST
~-.WINGS OF THE PARTY- PARTY SECRETARY GENERAL FRANCISCO SA CARNEIRO
-HAD BEEN CALLING FOR THE OUSTER OF THE COMMUNISTS FOR WEEKS
:BECAUSE OF THEIR EFFORTS TO UNDERMINE THE GOVERNMENT?4'
SUCH CALLS TNTENSIFIE.D IN THE WAKE OF THE COUP ATTEMPT ON
DATE
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' O I- IIILFS {f
NOVEM9ER ?5-26, WE~ICH BOTH THE POPULAR DEMOCRATS AND THE SOCIALISTS
BLAMED ON THE C01'1MUNISTS ? M
COMMUNIST PARTY LE,4DER ALVARO CUNHAL, MEANWHILE, TOLD ?
20,~D0 SUPPORTERS IN LISBON ON SUNDAY THAT THE PARTY HAD NOT
WITHDRAIJN FROM THE GOVERNMENT BECAUSE THAT WOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN
THE RIGHT. HE SAID A NEW THREAT FROM THE RIGHT MUST. NOW BE
OVERCOME BY CHi;NGING THE POLICIES OF THE SOCIALISTS AND THE
RULING FACTION IN THE ARMED FORCES MOVEMENT ? 4'
CUN;-IAL TOLD THE COMMUNIST RALLY-THE FIRST SINc:E THE
COUP ATTEMPT-THAT THE tZEBELLION HAD BEEN "DISASTROUS,^ AiVD
HE PLACED THE BLAME ON THE FAR LEFT. FiE SAID A BLOODY ROUT OF THE
WORKERS HAD BEEN NARROWLY AVOIDED WHEN THE COMMUNIST PARTY.
FAILED TO SUPPORT THE UPRISING. {CONFIDENTIAL}4'
2? SPAIN: PRIME MINISTER ARIAS ON FRIDAY MOVED TO BEGIN
~? REORGANIZING THE G00VERNMENT AFTER AGREEING TO KING JUAN CARLOS'
-~ REQUEST TO REMAIN IN OFFICE?5'
25X1C ACCO?DING TO ARIAS AND MEMBERS OF
HIS CABINET HA'vt PREPARED A DECREE AUTHORIZING THE PRIME MINISTER
DATE:
vRIG:
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TO CARRY OUT THE REORGANIZATION WITHOUT SEEKING APPROVAL OF THE
RIGHTIST-DOMII`lATED PAi2LIAMENT? FORMAL ANNOUNCEMENT OF 1THE DECREE
:^,PPARENTLY WILL BE HELD UP UNTIL ARIAS ANNOUNCES HIS CHOICES BTO
HEAD THE ~?REORGANIZED MINISTRIE.S? .THE DELAY SUGGESTS ARIAS IN
MEET?'NG RESISTANCE TO SOME OF HIS PLANS?4'
GOVERNMENT SOURCES TOLD THE PRESS ON FRIDAY THAT THE RE-
ORGANIZATION WILL BE EXTENSIVE- THE SEPARATE SERVICE PORTFOLIOS
ARE TO BE ME2GED INTO A MINISTRY OF DEfdFENSE; SUCH A MOVE WOULD
FACILITATE MODERNIZATION OF THE ARMED FORCES. FRANCO HAD BLACKED
PREVIOUS ATTEMPTS TO CREATE A DEFE~JSE MINISTRY, AND IMPLEMENTING
SUCH A CHANGE NOW WILL HELP GIVE THE ARIAS GOVERNMENT ELAN IMAGE
OF BREAKING WITH THE PASTY
Ai:~T:~ER CHANGE UNDER CONSIDERATIOaJ IS THE ABOLITION OF THE
,~ CABINET-LEVEL SECRETARIAT GENERAL OF THE NATIONAL MOVEMENT, THE
'-ONLY LEGP,L POLITICAL P^RTY UNDER THE FRANCO REGIM~? THIS CHANGE,
=WHICH WOULD ENRAGE ~11yULTRARIGHTS, COULD 8E DESIGhF J "f0 PREPARE
THE WAY FOR THE LEGALIZATI~'1N OF OTHER POLITICAL PARTIES?4'
= ~ JUAN CARLOS IS SAID TO HAVE GIVEN ARIAS A rs?FREE HAND TO
DATE:
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NAME THE MEMBERS OF HIS CABINET- THE PRIME FiINISTER IS EXPECTED
TO SELECT SOME MINISTERS WHO WILL APPEAL TO THOSE WANTING
LIBERALIZATION OF THE GOVERNMENT, BUT NOT WITHOUT SOME
OBJECTIONS FROM THE RIGHT- {CONFIDENTIAL}4' ,~
3- USSR: THE SOVIET UNION'S HARVEST DISASTER AND RG9ELATED
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS WILL COMPLICATE THE LEADERSHIP'S 'PROPAGANDA
EFFORTS BEFORE THE PARTY CONGRESS MEETS IN FEBRUARY? POLITICS
COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED-4'
THE REGIME'S llEFENSIVEtvt~S IS DEMONSTRATED BY THE ATTEMPTS
TO EVADE REPORTING HARVEST RESULTS AT THE SUPREME SOVIET HSESSIO N
THIS WEEK- EARLY IN HIS REPORT TO THE SESSION, NLANNING CHIEF
BAYBAKOV CONTRASTED THE ALLEGED "ECONOMIC CRISIS^ IN THE WEST TO
WHAT HE CLAIMED WERE SOVIET ECONOMIC SUCCESSES- PROPAGANDISTS
WILL PROBABLY BE MAKTNG INCREASING USE OF THIS DEVICE IN COMING
= MONTHS-5'
THE ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN RESULTING FROM 1'HE POOR HARVEST,
c HOWEVER, WILL UNDERMINE THE LEADERSHIP'S EF"r'ORTS TO CLOTHE H?
:.ITSELF IN THE MANTLE AF POLICY SUCCESS.'I?
DATE:
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ANOTHER REASOtJ THE LEADERSHIP IS TRf:ATING ECONOMIC SUBJECTS
GINGERLY IS BECAUSE IT REALIZES THE POTENTIAL FOR RECRIMINATIONS
AND POLICY DISPUTES- BY STRESSING THAT THE WEATHER ?WAS THE CAUSE
OF THE POOR HARVEST, THE REGIME IS TRYING TO BLOCK ATTEMPTS TO
BLAME INDIVIDUALS OR POLICIES- UKRAINIAN PARTY BOSS SHCHERBITSKY,
A PROTEGE OF BREZHNEV, !~IARNED THIS FALL THAT A "CORRECT APPROACH"
MUST BE TAKEN IN APPRAISING THE HARVEST, AND THAT THE WORK OF THE
PARTY IN AGRICULTURE "MUST ilNOT BE BELITTLED ? ^4'
AT THE MOMENT, THE LEADERSHIP SEEr~S TO BE STICKING WITH ITS
PAST POLICIES- BREZHNEV'S PROGRAM OF HEAVY INVESTMENT TN
AGRICULTURE WILL APPARENTLY 8E MAINTAINED- REFERENCES TO
BREZHNEV'S SPEECH AT THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEETING ON DECEMBER 1
SUGGEST THAT HE OFFERED HACKNEYED PRESCRIPTIONS SUCH AS "SOCIALIST
COMPETITION" RATHER 1'NAN NEW APPROACHES TO ECONOMIC PRO?BLEMS?4'
PRESSURES MA1' NEVERTHE LESS BUILD BEHIND 'i'HE SCENES- THE
-ECONOMY'S POOR PERFORMANCE WILL REQUIRE PRELIMINARY GOALS FOR
=THE NEXT FIVE-YEAR PLAN PERIOD TO BE REVISED DOWNWARD. ADVOCATES
~OF LIMITED REFORM'MEASURES AND SCHEMES TO REORGANIZE AGRICULTURE
DATE:
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IN THE END, IT MAY BE II?~POSSIBLE TO SUPPRESS RECRIMINATIONS
ENTIRELY AND TO AVOID OFFERING UP A SCAPEGOAT OR TWO- {CONFI-
DENTIAL}4' .. ?
4. USSR= SOVIET CHIEF OF STATE PODGORNY IS SCHEDULED
TO ARRIVE IN KABUL DECEMBER 9 ':-~V WHRT APPEARS TO BE'
THE ANNUAL EXCHANGE OF VISITS BY LEADERS OF THE TWO
COUNTRIES- THE FACT THAT PODGORNY IS TAKING TIME
TO GO TO KABUL DURIPiG A BUSY PERIOD IN MOSCOW DEMON-
STRATES THE IMPORTANCE THAT 7'I~E SOVIETS ATTACH TO
TF~EIR TIES TO AFGHANISTAN AND OTHER SOUTH ASIAN
COUNTRIES - 4' ?
ONE THING ON PODGORNY'S MIND WILL BE DAOUD'S
RECENT PURGES OF LEFTIST OFFICIALS IN THAT Gt?VERN-
~MENT? THE SOVIETS HAVE THUS FAR SAID LITTLE ABOUT
=THEM, BUT THE AFGHANS HAVE BEEN SENSITIVE TO THE
=LIKELIHOOD OF SOVIET MISGIVING; AND HAVE MOVED TO
:.ASSURE MOSCOW THAT` THE PURGES DO NOT MEAN ANY SWING
DATE:
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AWAY FROM THE USSR-4'
PODGORNY PRCSABLY WILL SEEK A STRONGER AFGHAN
ENDORSEMENT OF MOSCOW'S ASIAN COLLECTIVE SECURITY
IDEA. PRESIDENT DAOUD GAVE A VEP.Y CIRCUMSCRIt3E~D
ENDORSEMI-:NT TO THE IDEA DURING HIS VISIT TO THE USSR
LAST JUNE-4'
PODGORNY'S VISIT WILL PROBABLY NOT CULMINATE
TN ANY NEW LARGE-SCALE AID AGREEMENTS BECAUSE THE
AFGHANS HAVE NOT YET USED TtiE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILLION
DOLLARS IN CRE?DITS MOSCOW EXTENDED IN PREVIOUS AGREEMENTS-
THE TWO SIDES MAY, HOWEVER, ANNOUNCE PLANS FOR SPECIFIC
PROJECTS WITH THE MONEY ALREADY PLEDGED- MOSCOW SIGNED
,F~ AIM ~ T~~--~?~.z,-Lives MILITARY AID AGREEMENT WITH
r7r aim-~Sk4;1oc n.;~lt,ol~~
' AFGHANISTAN IN MAY WHICH EXCEEDS PREVIOUS ARMS PACKAGES
=: BY A SUB:iTANTIAL AMOUNT- THE SOVIETS ARE NELPINC TO
:MODERNIZE THE AFGHAN ARMED FORCES WITH LATE-MODEL
'EQUIPMENT, INCLUDING AIRCRAFT, GROUND FORCES EQUIPMENT,
:. AND SUPPORT MATERIAL - ~'SECRET'r5'
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 1. DO NOT R! 40VE TAB. RP,FE Rl NI:? MA: E R1Al Ml,ST ?! STAPfrPD ONLY TO TN! TAD DURING COORDINATION AND RE',EASE OP THE ME59AGY. SENT
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':5? POLAND ~ IN AN EFFORT TO ENS LIRE THAT STORES ARE WIELL-
STOCKED FOR THE CHRISTMAS SEASON, THE POLISH GOVERNMENi~
ON THUP,SDAY BANNED THE SALE BY PRODUCERS OF
3D CONSUMER ITEMS TO ADMINISTRATIVE UNITS, COOPERA-
TIVES AND SOCIAL OP.GANIZATIONS? THE LIST OF PROD-
UCTS INCLUDES CARPETS, WOODEN FURNITURE, '1'ELEVISI01~
SETS, REFRIGERATORS, MEAT, AND PROCESSED MEAT?4'
THE BAN IS INTENDED TO ENSURE THAT CONSUMER
GOODS IN HIGH DEMAND ACTUALLY REACH STORES FOR PUR-
CHASE BY THE: GENERAL PUBLIC. MANY SUCH ITEMS ARE
NOW CHANNELED INTO A ^PRIVATE^ DISTRIBUTION NET-
WORK INCLUDING FACTORY COMMISSARIES AND SIMILAR
ORGANIZA.T SONS ? 4'
hIAP,SAW IS, IN EFFECT, ROBBING PETER TO PAY
=PAUL. THE MOVE WILL PLEASE THE AVERAGE POLISH CON-
SUMER WHO NOW CANNOT FIND CERTAIN ITEMS OR MUST
STAND IN LONG LINES TO PURCHASE THEP1. ON THE OTHER
HAND, IT WILL l:~'SET THOSE CONSUMERS--NOT AN INSIG-
DATE:
oRl~: Approved For Release 2001/08/21 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010090-0
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NE'f'WO RK . 4'
THE BAN ~JOES, HOWEVER, CONTAIN A LOOPHOLE WHICH,
IF WIDELY USED, COULD NEGATE ?i'Hf: ENTIRE EFFORT.-
PROVINCE GOVERNORS AND TOWN MAYORS HAVE BEEN IN-
STRUCTED TO SET UP SPECIAL COMMITTEES TO ISSUE PER=
MITS FOR THE PURCHASE OF THESE ITEMS. THE COMMIT-
TEES WILL UNDOUBTEDLY COME UNDER HEAVY PRESSURE
TO CIRCUMVENT THE BAN. {CONFIDENTIAL} E-2 IMPDET.rI
25X1A
NO IND[ll
11l7V RN TO PER
uNlr: OC 4~~IL?~e or eease 01/08/2~5CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010090-0
Exr: 9106
 Approved For Release 2001/08/21 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010090-0
OU`~GOING MESSAGE
s~aNw~ ceNTSn usa oh-.r
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MIDDLE EAST AFRICA BRIEF b88-75.5'
O inofx , LiISSEM BY:
O NO INOfx
O NfTV11N TO PER
],? LEBAPJON~ SECURI7"Y TN BEIRUT DE"ERTORATED OVER THE WEEKEND,
DESPITE EFFG~RTS BY LEADERS OF THE MAJOR COMBATANTS TO FOfi~STALL
HEAVY FIGHTING?M ~-
COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY, WHICH HAD GRADUALLY BEEN INCREASING
SINCE THE LATEST CEASE-FIRE, HAS HALTED AS A RESULT`OF A NEW
WAVE OF KIDNAPINGS AND GUNFIGHTS IN THE DOWNTOWN AREA- MANY
LEBANESE FEAR THAT THE END-OF-THE-MONTH "PAY DAY" TRUCE IS
O'JER AND THAT RADICAL EL''"TENTS HAVE SUFFICIENTLY REAP,MED
THEMSELVES FOR ARIOTHER ROUND GF FIGHTING .4'
THE FLARE-UP APPEALS TO HA"JE BEEN CAUSED BY RADICAL ELEMENTS
OF 80TH CHRISTIAN AND MUSLIM GROUPS SEEKING REVENGE ON ONE ANOTHER-
CNE INCIDENT INVOLVING A KIDNAPING IN THE HOTEL DISTRICT LED
TO THE WOUNDING OF TWO SOVIET DIPLOMATS. INTERIGR MINISTER SHAMUN,
';LEBANON'S MOST POWERFUL CHRISTIAN LEADER, HAS CONDEMNED BOTH
SIDES AND IMPOSED WHA'P AMOUNTS TO A 24-HOUR CURFEW ON THE C.ITY?4'
PRIME MINISTER KARAMI'S KECENT ADMISSION THAT HE IS HAVING
DIFFICULTY BROADENING HIS GOVERNMENT HAS SCOTCHED HOPES THAT A
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
Approved For Release 2001/08/21 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010090-0
 Approved For Release 2001/08/21 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010090-0
OUTGOING MESSAGE
OIONAL CENTeR US^ ONLT
AO^ COI AGE TOO T/' MAO OCI
OMF 0 0 D 6 D D 0
C-~
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L
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^ INnul D;SSEM BY:
^ NO IND/N
^ NlTUgNTO PER
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.NEW CABINET SLATE WOULD BE ANNOUNCED BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
N,AS GENEKALLY DAMPENED PUBLIC CONFIDENCE THAT AN EFFECTIVE
GOVERNMENT CAN BE PUT TOGETHER AT ALL. CHRISTIAN POLITICIANS ARE
APPARENTLY ARGUING THAT SECURITY MUST BE RESTPRED BEFORE KARAMI ~::AN
TAKE ANY NEW INITIATIVES, WHILE LEFTIST LEADERS ARE DEf1ANDING T!-!~~1T
THEIR REFORM PROPOSALS BE ACCEPTED PRIOR TO FORMATION OF A NEW
CABINET.M
AL 'HOUGH MUCH OF THIS TALK TS PART OF THE BARGAINING
PROCESS, SHAMUN AN.D?SOCIALIST LEADER JUMBLATT HAVE NOT GIVEN
MUCH INDICATIOP~ Oi SOFTENING THEIR POSITIONS ? KARAMI WILL NAVE TO
WORK OUT AM UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN THESE TWO ADVEfU OP THE NEtd MF:hBERSNxP IS LIKELY TO CONSIST 01' dOMEN~
CORRECTIrtG TO A SPIALL DEGREE WHAT r3CDEL SEES AS A SEtiIOUS POLYTJ[CAl
~1E A~NG SS A P Ti~E HIGHEST POLICY LEVEL ? 9~SECRdT} E-~' IMPDET ? rl
DOODDO
DECEMBER 8+ 1'~?5
1Q~~
Approved For Release 2001/08/21 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010090-0