MIDDLE EAST AFRICA BRIEF 183.754

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010085-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 32
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 26, 2001
• Sequence Number: 85
• Publication Date: November 28, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

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,MIDDLE EAST AFRICA BRIEF 183-75.Y
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1? LEBANON: LEBANESE PRESIDENT FRANJIYAH HAS MOVED TO DEFEND
HI1SELF AGAINST RECENT HEAVY ATTACKS BY HIS MUSLIM, LEFTIST, AND
CHRISTIAN CRITICS. SPEAKING TO THE CABINET WEDNESDAY, HE SAID HE
WOULD DISREGARD CRITICISM OF HIM PERSONALLY, BUT THAT ATTACKS
ON THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT WERE HARMING THE COUNTRY AND SHOULD
?:ASE ? Y
THE PRESIDENT SAID HIS OPPONENTS' CONTRADICTORY CHARGES THAT
HE HAS NOT BEEN ASSERTIVE ENOUGH AND THAT HIS POWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED PROVE THAT HE IS MAINTAINING A PROPER, MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD
POLICY. FRANJIY_A4 ASSERTED THAT POLITICAL REFORM CANNOT BE FORCED BY
CONTINUED FIGHTING, BUT MUST GROW OUT OF POLITICAL NEGOTIATION.
HE SAID THE GOVERNMENT IS PREPARED TO CONSIDER SERIOUSLY ANY
O
"WELL-STUDIED PLANS" FOR POLITICAL, SOCIAL, OR ECONOMIC REFORMS.
4 LEBANESE LEFTISTS WILL NOT BE SWAYED BY THESE ARGUMENTS-4'
3 FRANJIYAH'S LESS-RADICAL MUSLIM CRITICS--INCLUDING PRIME MINISTER
2 KARAMI--MAY AT LEAST BE WILLING TO TEST HIM BY PROPOSING SPECIFIC
REFORMS. KARAMI FOLLOWED FRANJIYAH IN ADDRESSING THE CABINET, AND
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ADOPTED A MUCH MORE* CONCILIATORY POSTiION THAN H!: HAD TAKEN EARLY
.IN THE WEEK. KARAMI MAY TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO URGE THAT HE AND
FRANJIYAH BEGIN THE JOINT SESSIONS AT WHICH THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO
DRAFT SPECIFIC RREFORM PROPOSALS?Y
THE FIRST TEST OF FRANJIYAH APPARENTLY WILL COME FROM GHASSAN
TUWAYNI, A CHRISTIAN MEMBER OF THE CABINET. TUWAYNI, WHO THIS WEEK
REAFFIRMED HIS POLITICAL INDEPENDENCE BY MEDIATING THE DISPUTE
BETWEEN KARAMI AND INTERIOR MINISTER SHAMUN, CHARGED ON WEDNESDAY
THAT THE CABINET SHOULD RESIGN IF IT CANNOT STO;~ ITS INTERNAL
ScUABBLINJG AND RESTORE CIVIL ORDER. TUWAYNI REPORTEDLY HAS
PROPOSED A DETAILED PROD:AM THAT OVER A THREE-WEEK PERIOD WOULD
IMPLEMENT A CEASE-FIRE AND LAUNCH SPECIFIC SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC REFORMS-'
THE SUCCESS OF THIS PLAN, IF IT WINS CABINET APPROVAL, WILL
HINGE ON THE WILLINGNESS OF THE COUNTRY'S POLITICAL LEADERS TO HAVE
THEIR PRIVATE 11ILITIAS ACT AS A NATIONAL GUARD IN PATROLLING BEIRUT?Y
LEADERS OF THE RIGHT-WING PHALANGES PARTY MAY WELCOME BOTH
2 FRANJIYAHR'S SPEECH AND TUWAYNI'S INITIATIVE. THEY WILL SEE
FRANJIYAH'S WILLINGNESS TO SPEAK UP FOR CHRISTIAN INTERESTS AS
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PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME ASSURANCE THAT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO RESIST
GIVING UP TOO MUCH IN. ANY NEGOTIATIONS THAT MIGHT FOLLOW A CEASE-FIRE.
A CEASE-FIRE, AT A MINIMUM, WOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
TO REARM. THE PHALANGISTS, LIKE THE OTHER CHRISTIAN GROUPS, REMAIN
PESSIMISTIC THAT THE MUSLIMS WILL TEMPER THEIR POLITICAL DEMAND-S
TO THE EXTENT NECESSARY TO ALLOW AGREEMENT ON FUNDAMENTAL ISSUES.M
ANY NEGOTIATIONS WITHOUT PRECONDITIONS WOULD BUY TIME, HOWEVER,
AND WOULD ALLOW THE CHRISTIANS TO CONTEND THAT THEY. WERE HEEDING
THE ADVICE OF FOREIGN MEDIATORS UHO COUNSEL A MORE CONCILIATORY
ATTITUDE?Y
ACCORDING TO ONE REPORT, EVEN THE ULTRA-CONSERVATIVE
MARONITE MONKS MAY HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE REASONABLE AS A
RESULT OF URGINGS FROM THE VATICAN EARLY THIS MONTH. THERE IS NO
CHANCE THE MONKS WILL ENDORSE PROPOSALS FOR POLITICAL REFORM,
BUT EVEN REDUCED OPPOSITION FROM THEM WOULD GIVE CONSERVATIVE
CHRISTIANS LIKE FRANJIYAH MORE FREEDOM TO NEGOTIATE. MARONITE
:RELIGIOUS ORDERS AND LAY GROUPS ARE A PRINCIPAL SOURCE OF ARMS
AND FUNDS FOR THE CHRISTIAN MILITIAS.Y
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THE TENTATIVE S.XGNS OF POLITICAL PROGRESS HAVE COMBINED WITH
HEAVY RAINS TO RF:DUI:E THE FIGt-(TING IN BEIRUT. GOVERNMENT SPOKESMEN
APE CAUTIOUSLY CPT::'11ISTIC THAT COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY CAN RESUME ON
MONDAY . {SECRE! }
2- SPANISH S:I'HARA: ALGERIA AND TANZANIA INITIATED A PROPOSAL IN
THE UN TRUSTEESHI":':' COMMITTEE OF THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY EARLIER THIS
WEEK FOR A DRAFT RESOLUTION ON SPANISH SAHARA. THIS GAMBIT IS
PART OF ALGIERS' CONTINUING CAMPAIGN FOR A FULL-SCALE GENERAL
ASSEMBLY DEBATE -ON THE RECENT SPANISH--MOROCCAN-MAURITANIAN
AGREEMENT, WHICH PROVIDES FOR A PHASED TURNOVER OF THE TERRITORY
TO RABAT AND NOUAKCHOTT.Y
THE ALGEF;IAN-TANZANIAN PROPOSAL CALLS FOR SPAIN TO TRANSFER
ADMINISTRATION OF THE TERRITORY TO THE UN NEXT FEBRUARY AND
LEAVE ITS MILITARY FORCES IN PLACE UNDER UN CONTROL. THE UN
`WOULD ADMINISTER THE TERRITORY FOR SIX MONTHS WHILE A COMMISSION
OF THE UN REPRESENTATIVES OF ALL FOUR PARTIES TO THE DISPUTE WOULD
"DETERMINE THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE- In THIS IS UNACCEPTA6-E TO
-MADRID, RABAT, AND NOUAKCHOTT WHICH ARE SEEKING TO LIMIT UN
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DEBATE'AND SECURE UN ACQUIESCENCE; TO THE TRILATERA__
. L AGREEMENT.
ALTHOUGH THE PROPOSAL DOES NOT SPELL OUT HOW THE COMMISSION
WOULD DETERMINE THE POPULAR WILL, BOTH ALGERIAN AND TANZANIAN
SPOKESMEN HAVE STRONGLY ENDORSED A REFERENDUM IN STATEMENTS BEFORE
THE TRUSTEESHIP COMMITTEE-M
ALGIERS IS TRYING TO FORCE THE ISSUE INTO THE FULL GENERAL
ASSEMBLY AND HOPES THAT TANZANIAN COSPONSORSHIP WILL HELP SECURE
BROAD AFRICAN SUPPORT. THE ALGERIANS WANT THE ASSEMBLY TO REJECT
THE TRILATERAL ARRANGEMENT WORKED OUT IN MADRID AND CALL FOR A
REFERENDUM ON SELF-DETERMINATION- ALGIERS WILL USE ITS
CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE AS FORMAL HEAD OF THE NONALIGNED
MOVEMENT TO TRY TO ACHIEVE THIS GOAL- -ECONFIDENTIALTY
3. RHODESIA: PRIME MINISTER IAN SMITH AND JOSHUA NKOMO, THE
LEADER OF A MAJOR FACTION OF RHODESIAN NATIONALISTS, MAY SOON PUBLICLY
SIGN A "DECLARATION OF INTENT" TO ENGAGE IN EARLY SUBSTANTIVE
NEGOTIATIONS It ON A POSSIBLE SETTLEMENT OF THE RHODESIAN QUESTION-Y
THE DECLARATION APPARENTLY WOULD INCORPORATE AN AGREEMENT ON
PROCEDURAL MATTERS, INCLUDING IMMUNITY FOR NATIONALISTS PARTICIPATING
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.IN SETTLEMENT TALKS. A CONFERENCE AT VICTORIA FALLS LAST AUGUST
BETWEEN SMITH AND A BROAD COALITION OF NATIONALSISTS BROKE DOWN OVER
;SMITH'S REFUSAL TO GRANT IMMUNITY FROM DETENTION TO ALL THE NATIONAL-
IST LEADERS.Y
BOTH NKOMO AND SMITH HAVE STATED PUBLICLY THAT THEY HAVE MADE
PROGRESS IN THEIR PRIVATE TALKS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.Y
THE TWO LEADERS WERE REPORTEDLY PLANNING TO SIGN THE DECLARATION
WHEN SMITH RETURNS TO SALAISBURY FROM HIS CURRENT SOUTH AFRICAN
VACATION ON DECEMBER B2 2. NKOMO IS NOW PRESSING, HOWEVER, FOR AN
EARLIER SIGNING--THIS FRIDAY OR EVEN SOONER--AND HOPES THE SOUTH
AFRICANS WILL PERSUADE SMITH TO AGREE.Y
WITH WORD OF THE PROCEDURAL AGREEMENT 5 BEGINNING TO LEAHK OUT,
NKOMO IS ANXIOUS TO DENY RIVAL NATIONALISTS SUCH AS BISHOP MU'OREWA
AND NDABANINGI "ITHOLE TIME TO MOUNT A CAMPAIGN AGAINST IT BEFORE
IT IS EVEN SURFACED. SITHOLE HAS ALREADY DENOUNCED NKOMO FOR SELLING
3 OUT RBHODESIA'S BLACKS-Y
SMITH IS NOW SAID TO BE READY TO GRANT IMMUNITY TO NEGOTIATORS
NAMED BY NKOMO. 7 HE PRIME r, INISTER APPARENTLY93 BELIEVES--THERE MAY
~TDEED BE AN UNDERSTANDING--THAT
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.INDEED BE AN UNDERSTANDING--THAT NKOMO WILL TRY TO BROADEN HIS SUPPORT
BY INVITING MUZOREWHA AND HIS FOLLOWERS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE TALKS-I
:dJT WILL EXCLUDE SITHOLE, WHO IS ANATHEMA TO SMITHY
FOLLOWING HIS RECENT TALKS WITH SMITH, NKOMO HAS BEEN SEEKING
SUPPORT FOR THE DECLARATION FROM.THE FOUR AFRICAN PRESIDENTS WHO HAVE.
BEEN TRYING TO ARRANGE A THODESIAN SETTLEMENT IN COLLABORATION WITH
SOUTH AFRICAN PRIME MINISTER VORSTER. NKOMO APPARENTLY CAN COUNT ON
THE BACKING OF ZAMBIAN PRESIDENT KAUNDA AND BOTSWANAN PRESI.EN T
KHAMA. HE REPORTEDLY SECURED THE AGREEMENT OF TANZANIAN PRESIDENT
NYERERE, WHO HAS BEEN SYMPATHETIC TO MUZOREWA AND SITHOLE, NOT TO
OPPOSE EFFORTS TO NEGOTIATE A PEACEFUL SETTLEMENT.Y
ON TUESDAY, NKOMO WAS DUE IN LOURENCO MARQUES TO TRY TO GET
SIMILAR ASSURANCES FROM MOUZ ZAMBICAN PRESIDENT MACHEL, WHO ALSO FAVORS
MUZOREWA AND SITHOLE. {CONFIDENTIAL}Y E-2 IMPDET-d
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WESTERN HEMISPHERE BRIEF 163-7S- V
//PERU: PRESIDENT MORALES BERMUDEZ REPORTEDLY IS CONSIDERING
ESTABLISHING A MINISTRY OF DEYENSEv AMONG OTHER THINGS, TO ENAOLE THE
CURRENT PRIME MINISTER% ARMY GENERAL VARGAS PRIETO% TO RE!1AI1 IN-
FLBENTIAL IN THE GOVERNMENT AFTER HIS MAUDATORY RETIREMENT NEXT
FEBRUARY. VARGAS IS A LONG-TIME ASSOCIATE OF THE PRESIDENT AND IS
POLITICALLY MORE MODERATE THAN ARMY CHIEF Of STAFF FERNMDEZ
MALDONADO, WHO IS SCHEDULED TO SUCCEED HIfl?//Y
//A DCFENSE MINISTRY WOULD DILUTE TO TOME EXTENT THE POWERS
NOW EXERCISED BY THE PRIfE PIINISTER, WHO ALSO SERVES AS MINISTER OF
WAR AND COMMAfi-2ING GENERAL OF THE ARMY. AT LEAST ONE Of THESE THREE
POSITIONS, THE WAR' ?INISTRY, MIGHT BE ABOLISHED IF A DEFENSE MINIS-
TRY IS FORMED. THE ARGUMENT THAT A DEFENSE MINISTRY MOULD BRING A
GREATER DEGREE OF RATIONALITY AND COHESIVESNESS TO NATIONAL DEFENSE
PLANNING, WHILE PLAUSIBLE, IS AL3OST CERTAIN TO ENGENDER OPPOSITION
FROM CABINET-LEVEL OFFICERS AND IMPORTANT TROOP COMMANDERS Pi HO MAY
FEAR THEIR AUTHORITY VILL BE DIMINISHED-//M
//OPPOSITION BY THE OFFICER CORPS IN LATE 1'f74 TO A SCHEME BY
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FORMER PRESIDENT VELASCO TO CREATE THE POST-OF VICE PRESIDENT FORCED
HIf4 TO ABANDON i :E PLAN- PRESIDENT 1IORALES BERI1UDEZ IS IN A BETTER
POSITION TO DEFEND THIS LATEST SCHEflE, SHOULD HE G9 AHEAD YSTH IT-
IN THE FIRST PLACE, THE FORMAL REQUIREJEt4TS FOR CREATING A NEW
CABINET POST--AS OPPOSED TO A VICE PRESIDENCY WHICH ARGUABLY IS HOT
A "ffZNISTRY"--ARE fINIt1AL2 UNDER THE TERMS OF THE REVOLU'tIOA1ARY
STATUE AND THE 1933 COt4 TITUTIOM, THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC HAi
EFFECTIVE POKIER TO DETERMINE THE NUTlBEROOr POIAISTRIES AND WHO o tL
STAFF THEE.//Y
//ALTHOUGH THE PRESIDENT WOULD REED THE CONCURRENCE OF THE THREE
SERVICE CHIEFS, WHO COLLECTIVELY CONSTITUTE THE REVOLUTIONARY JUNTA'
THE FACT THAT A DEFENSE MINISTRY WOULD BE A USERUL BUREAUCRATIC TOOL
AND NOT BE AN OBVIOUS LOVE TO FURTHER THE AOIBITIONS OF A PARTICULAR
GENERAL. ADDS TO THE PROPOSAL'S ATTRACTIVENESS THE FAILURE OF
VELASCO' S PLOD' TO CREATE A VICE PRESIDENCY WAS ASSURED WHEN IT BE-
CAfIE APPARENT THAT IT WOULD BE USED TO BOOST GENERAL GRAHAM HURTADO=
WHO WAS RECENTLY .OUSTED BY fORALE.S BERMUDEZ? THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT MORALES DERfIUDEZ INTENDS TO USE A DEFENSE fINISTRY FOR
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SIMILAR PURPOSES: THE DUTIES OF A DEFENSE MINISTER MOULD NOT LEND
THEEISFLYES TO POLITICAL ACTIVITY AS WOULD THOSE OF A VICE PRESIi#NT.//%
//MORALES BERMUDEZ ANJD SOME OF HIS ASSOCIATES PROBABLY BELIEVE
THAT ,A DEFENSE MINISTRY HOULD V&T INTO AN OVERALL P".AN TO REDUCE
RADICAL INFLUENCE IN THE GOVERNMENT, BRING ORDER TO THE REGIME'S
STIFLING BUREAUCRACY, AND GENERALLY PLACE THE PRESIDENT'S IMPRIMTUg
ON THE REVOLUTIONARY PROCESS. THE PRECISE CHANGES THAT MAY RESULT
FROM TtIESE AMBITIOUS GOALS REMAIN UNCLEAR, BUT CONTINUED MANEUVERING
BY MORALES BERMUDEZ IS CERTAIN. (CONFIDENTIAL NOrORf3}// E-2 IIIDPET? d
DO/DDOL ~.------
SDO--
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.EAST ASIA BRIEF 183-7S. Y
1.//JAPAN: JAPANESE UNION LEADERS ARE LOOKING FOR A FACE-SAVING
GESTURE FROM THE GOVERNMENT SO THEY CAN CUT SHORT THE
STRIKE LAUNCHED D'~ RAILWAY AND OTHER PUBLIC WORKERS ON THURSDAY.//Y
//THE ILLEGAL WALKOUT, AFFECTING NEARLY 19 MILLION COMMUTERS,
IS DESIGNED TO DRAMATIZE THE DEMAND OF PUBLIC EMPLOYEES FOR THE
RIGHT TO STRIKE-A CONTENTIOUS ISSUE THAT HAS KEPT LABOR AND
GOVERNMENT AT LOGGERHEADS FOR MORE THAN 20 YEARS- UNION LEADERS
APPARENTLY LAUNCHED THE STRIKE WITH SOME RELUCTANCE- ORIGINALLY
THE CAMPAIGN WAS TIMED TO COINCIDE WITH THE RELEASE OF A
DEFINITIVE GOVERNMENT DECISION ON THE ISSUE, BUT THE GOVERNMENT
DELAYED THE RELEASE, AND UNION LEADERS NOW FEAR THAT UNLESS THE
STRIKE, IS CURTAILED PUBLIC OPINION WILL TURN AGAINST THEM- A
SIMILAR WALKOUT IN ]?973 RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD PUBLIC. INDIGNATION,
L,-AIMED LARGELY AT THE STRIKING WORKERS.//Y
3 //THE GOVERNMENT IS UNLIKELY TO COMPROMISE IN ANY MEANINGFUL
2WAY? PUBLIC EMPLOYEES HAVE NOT ONLY LONG BEEN THE MOST MILITANT
LAND POLITICALLY ACTIVE OF ALL UNION WORKERS, BUT THEY ARE ALSO
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CLOSELY ALLIED WITH THE SOCIALIST PARTY, THE MAJOR OPPONENT OF
THE RULING LIBERAL DEMOCRATS. IN ANY CASE, THE CONSERVATIVES
UNDOUBTEDLY CALCULATE THAT POPULAR REACTION TO THE TRANSPORTATION
TIE-UP WILL WORK TO THEIR ADVANTAGE. {CONFIDENTIAL}//S'
2. CHINA: A STRONGLY WORDED PEOPLE'S DAILY ARTICLE ON
TUESDAY IS TANTAMOUNT TO AN OPEN CHALLENGE OF NORTH VIETNAMESE
OCCUPATION OF THE SPRATLY ISLANDS.Y
MUCH OF THE ARTICLE WAS DEVOTED TO A JUSTIFICATION OF
CHINA'S CLAIM TO "INDISPUTABLE SOVEREIGNTY" OVER ALL ISLANDS
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEAS'
HANOI IS NOT SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED IN THE ARTICLE, BUT IT
NOTED THAT "MANY OF THE ISLANDS" ARE STILL NOT IN CHINESE HANDS,
AN OBVIOUS REFERENCE TO VIETNAMESE OCCUPATION OF THE SPRATLYS.
EMPHA`7IZING THE IMPORTANCE CHINA ATTACHES TO ITS CLAIM, THE
"ARTICLE LINKED PEKING'S DETERMINATION TO "LIBERATE" TAIWAN
.WITH ITS DEMAND THAT ALL ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BE
=RETURNED TO CHINESE CONTROL.Y
THE ISSUE OF SOVEREIGNTY OVER THE ISLANDS HAS TROUBLED
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SING - NORTH VIETNAMESE RELATIONS SINCE JANUARY OF LAST YEAR
WHEN CHINA TOOK OVER THE SOUTH VIETNAMESE - CONTROLLED PARACIEL
ISLANDS, 500 MILES NORTH OF THE SPRATLYS. THE DISPUTE ASSUMED!
GREATER IMPORTANCE TO PEKING LAS'S SPRING WHEN THE NORTH
VIETNAMESE TOOK CANTROL OF SEVERAL OF THE SPRATLYS FROM THE
t=ORMER SAIGON GOVERNMENT. {CONFIDENTIAL}Y
3.//VIETNAM: VIETNAMESE PROPAGANDA ATTP-'(S ",GAINST
THAILAND ARE AGAIN MOUNTING AS HANOI PRESSES ITS DEMAND THAT
BANGKOK ABANDON COOPERATION WITH THE US ON SECURITY MATTERS.//9
//A RECENT VIETNAMESE BROADCAST, FOR EXAMPLE, HAS LABELED
AS "NONSENSE" FOREIGN MINISTER CHATCHAI'S RECENT CONDEMNATION
OF HANOI'S PUBLT'' SUPPORT FOR THE LAO COMMUNISTS DURING LAST
WEEK'S THAI-LAO BORDER CLASHES. THE 821UBROADCAST MAINTAINED
THAT BANGKOK, BY ATTEMPTT;NG TO CONNECT HANOI WITH THE CLASHES,
_WAS SEEKING TO JUSTIFY CONTINUED THAI "COLLUSION" WITH THE
US.//Y
//THE NORTH VIETNAMESE RECENTLY HAVE GONE WELL BEYOND
:THEIR EARLIER DEMANDS FOR THE RETURN OF AIRCRAFT FLOWN TO
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THAILAND DURING THE LAST STAGES OF THE VIETNAM WAR BY NOW
PUBLICLY PRESSING BANGKOK TO END U-2 FLIGHTS FROM THAILAND AND
REMOVE THE VESTIGES OF THE US MILITARY PRESENCE THERE.//Y
//FOREIGN MINISTER CHATCHAI'S TALKS IN WASHINGTON WILL HIT
ON SOME OF THESE ISSUES, AND THE NORTH VIETNAMESE OBVIOUSLY ARE
INTERESTED IN DRIVING THEIR MESSAGE HOME AT THIS TIME. {CONFI-
DENTIAL}.'! E-2 IMPDET . H
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EUROPEAN-BRIEF 183-7S.Y
_-_ __DISSEM BY:.._..
1. PORTUGAL: THE ABORTIVE MILITARY REBELLION WHICH WAS CRUSHED BY
P.RO-GOVERNMENT FORCES HAS CLAIMED ITS FIRST POLITICAL VICTIMS,
ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF CARLOS FABIAO AND SECURITY CHIEF OTELO DE
CARVALHO. THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED THAT BOTH RESIGNED ON THURSDAY,
BUT DID NOT LINK THEIR RESIGNATIONS WITH THE LEFTIST REBELLION.Y
THE ANTI-COMMUNIST MAJORITY IN THE REVOLUTIONARY COUNCIL
HAD SOUGHT THEIR DISMISSAL FOR WEEKS BECAUSE BOTH MEN OPENLY
ENCOURAGED LEFTIST DISSIDENT GROUPS WITHIN THE ARMED FORCES-Y
GENERAL FABIAO, ONCE ONE OF PORTUGAL'S LOST HIGHLY RESPECTED
.MILITARY OFFICERS, HAS RECEIVED MUCH OF THE BLAME FOR THE DIVISIVE
,POLITICAL FACTIONALISM IN THE ARMY. LAST MONTH, HE WAS SEVERELY
CRITICIZED FOR GIVING IN TO THE DEMANDS OF REBELLIOUS SOLDIERS
IN THE NORTH. ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS RECENTLY, HE APPEARED TO GIVE
4 HIS APPROVAL TO RADICAL MOVEMENTS IN THE MILITARY. HE HAS BEEN
3 REPLACED TEMPORARILY AS ARMY CHIEF OF STAFF BY AN OBSCURE INFANTRY
3. LIEUTENANT COLONEL. Y
INASMUCH AS CARVALHO WAS STRIPPED OF HIS COMMANDS EARLIER THIS
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L PR R
' Y O FOMA. CARVALHO IS WIDELY
.CREDITED WITH HAVING PLANNED AND EXECUTED THE APRIL 25, 1974
COUP WHICH ENDED NEARLY 50 YEARS OF AUTHORITARIAN RULE. HE
HAD BECOME THE STANDARD-BEARER OF THE RADICAL LEFT, HO'JEVER, AND
IN RECENT WEEKS THE COMMUNISTS ALSO RUSHED TO HIS DEFENSE AS HE
CAME INCREASINGLY UNDER ATTACK FOR HIS FAILURE TO SUPPORT GOVERNMENT
POLICIES. Y
PRESIDENT COSTA GOMES HAS ANNOUNCED THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL
WITHHOLD JUDGMENT ON WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PARATROOPERS"
REBELLION UNTIL AN OFFICIAL INQUIRY CAN BE HELD. FIFTY ONE OFFICERS
AND ENLISTED MEN CAPTURED DURING THE UPRISING ARE BEING HELD
UNDER DETENTION IN THE NORTH.Y
IN THE ABSENCE OF FORMAL CHARGES, BOTH THE SOCIALIST AND
POPULAR DEMOCRATIC PARTIES HAVE RUSHED TO SEIZE THE POLITICAL
4.NITIATIVE BY BLAMING THE COMMUNISTS. SOCIALIST LEADER MARIO
3 SOARES SAID THE "PRINCIPAL GUILT" RESTS WITH THE U"MINORITY
2 PARTIES"--A EUPHEMISM FOR ALL PARTIES LEFT OF THE SOCIALISTS--HEADED
I BY THE COMMUNISTS. THE POPULAR DEMOCRATS CHARGED THAT THE
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COMMUNISTS WERE GUILTY OF CREATING THE CONDITIONS WHICH LED
TO THE MUTINY. WHILE COMMUNIST PARTY MEMBERS DISCREETLY AVOIIED
.ANY DIRECT PARTICIPATION, MILITARY OFFICERS BELIEVED TO HAVE
CLOSE TIES TO THE PARTY DID APPEAR TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. THE
COMMUNISTS ARE ALSO VULNERABLE BECAUSE OF THEIR STRIDENT CALLS
FOR THE GOVERNMENT'S RESIGNATION JUST PRIOR TO THE REBELLION-9
ON WEDNESDAY, BOTH COSTA GOMES AND FOREIGN MINISTER MELO
ANTUNES WERE QUICK TO REASSURE THE PUBLIC THAT THE LEADERSHIP
WOULD CONTINUE TO PURSUE ITS AIMS NOW THAT THE MAJOR LEFTIST
OPPOSITION IN THE MILITARY HAS*BEEN CRUSHED. THE PRESIDENT
REITERATED HIS FAITH IN A DEMOCRATIC, PLURALISTIC SYSTEM FOR
PORTUGAL, SAYING THAT LEGISLATIrc ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS--SCHEDULED
FOR EARLY NEXT SPRING--WOULD BE HELD AS PROMISED?Y
ANTUNES, FIRMLY REBUTTING COMMUNIST DEMANDS FOR REVAMPING
THE GOVERNMENT, SAID THAT LEFTIST CRITICISM OF ITS PRESENT
COMPOSITION HAD BEEN UNFOUNDED AND THAT IT WAS ENTIRELY CAPABLE
OF CARRYING OUT ITS DUTIES. AN''UNES ADDED THAT THE POLITICAL
PARTIES--THE COMMUNISTS INCLUDED--WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY AN ESSENTIAL
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ROLE
_ROLE IN THE REVOLUTION. {CONFIDENTIAL} M
2. SPAIN: THE LIMITED PARDON ISSUED BY SPANISH KING JUAN CARLOS
ON NOVEMBER 26 APPEARS TO HAVE DONE LITTLE TO HEAL POLITICAL WOUNDS
OR REDUCE THE PROSPECT FOR AN OPEN BREAK BETWEEN THE NEW REGIME
AND THE LEFTIST OPPOSITION?Y
YESTERDAY, AS 81 FOREIGN DELEGATIONS--INCLUDING THE PRESIDENTS
OF THREE COMMON MARKET COUNTRIES--MET IN MADRID TO HONOR THE NEW
KING, THE SPANISH GOVERNMENT CONTINUED ITS CENSORSHIP POLICIES BY
SEIZING THE LATEST EDITION OF THE COUNTRY'S LEADING POLITICAL
WEEKLY MAGAZINE BECAUSE IT CONTAINED A SPECULATIVE ARTICLE ABOUT
JUAN CARLOS' LIBERALIZATION PLANS. ON WEDNESDAY, POLICE [AD
ANNOUNCED THE ARREST Oh' 30 YOUNG PEOPLE, MOSTLY STUDENTS, IN
NORTHWESTERN SPAIN FOR HOLDING AN ILLEGAL POLITICAL MEETING, AND
THERE WERE SCATTERED REPORTS OF OTHER ARRESTS ELSEWHERE TN SPAIN?Y
MANY LEFTISTS REACTED ANGRILY TO 'dE KING'S ROYAL PARDON, AND
RIOT POLICE ON THURSDAY BROKE UP TWO DEMONSTRATIONS--IN MADRID AND
= IN THE BASQUE CITY OF .AN SEBASTIAN--IN WHICH NOISY CROWDS DEMANDED
-? TOTAL AMNESTY FOR POLITICAL PRISONERS. THE POLITICAL OPPOSITION HAS
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ROUGHLY 2,000 POLITICAL PRISONERS HELD IN SFANISH JAILS AS A TOKEN
.OF HIS SERIOUS INTENTION TO CARRY OUT MEANINGFUL REFORMS-Y.
THE SOCIALIST WORKERS PARTY, THE LARGEST NON-COMMUNIST
OPPOSITION GROUP, POINTED OUT THAT EVEN FRANCO HAD APPROVED SEVERAL
SIMILAR PARDONS AND CHARGED THAT THE DECREE SHOWED ONLY THAT
NOTHING HAD CHANGED IN SPAIN. OPPOSITION CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATS WERE
,ALSO DISAPPOINTED, ALTHOUGH THEY WERE MORE WILLING TO LOOK ON THE
'PARDON AS A "POSITIVE STEP" WHICH MIGHT BE FOLLOWED BY OTHERS.Y
THE DECREE HAS COME UNDER HEAVY CRITICISM FOR THE VAGUENESS
OF ITS WORDING. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE JJUSTICE MINISTRY
INTERPRETS THE LAW. THE DECREE PROVIDES FOR THE REDUCTION OF
PRISON SENTENCES FOR POLITICAL AND COMMON CRIMES, FOR EXAMPLE, BUT
2 AMNESTY TO COMMON CRIMINALS AND IGNORE POLITICAL PRISONERS ENTIRELY.'
IT DOES NOT APPLY TO TERRORISTS, COMMUNISTS, ANARCHISTS,
-SEPARATISTS, AND CERTAIN KINDS OF MONETARY CRIMES. OPPOSITION
2 LAWYERS FEAR THAT THE GOVERNMENT COULD LIMIT APPLICATION OF THE
THE DECREE ALSO COMMUTES DEATH SENTENCES THAT HAVE BEEN OR
N*LIAIING OFFICIR COORDINATING OFF/Can$ AUTNINTPCATING OFFFCIR
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TO TRY TO ISOLATE THE PARTY FROM THE REST OF THE LEFT. TO COUNTER
THIS THE PARTY IS TRYING TO STIR UP BROAD OPPOSITION TO THE
.GOVERNMENT- THE COMMUNISTS HAVE HAD LITTLE SUCCESS IN THIS EFFORT
_MIGHT BE IMPOSLp FOR CRIMES THAT WERE COMMITTED PRIOR TO JUAN
CARLOS' INVESTITURE ON NOVEMBER 22--EXCEPT FOR TERRORISTS BEING
TRIED UNDER LAST AUGUSTS ANTI-TERRORIST
LAW. THE COMMUNISTS WILL PROBABLY VIEW
THIS EXCLUSION AS CONFIRMATION THAT THE GOVERNMENT'S STRATEGY IS
SO FAR, HOWEVER, AND THE COMMUNIST-DOMINATED WORKERS. COMMISSIONS
REPORTEDLY HAVE NOW BACKTRACKED ON THEIR EARLIER CALL FOR A
NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE WITHIN A WEEK OR 10 DAYS OF FRANCO'S DEATH-WY
ACCORDING TO ONE SOURCE, THE ATTEMPT TO CONVOKE A
CRIPPLING NATIONAL STRIKE HAS BEEN POSTPONED UNTIL CONDITIONS ARE
MORE PROPITIOUS. IN THE MEANTIME, THE COMMUNIST PARTY AND THE
4 WORKERS' COMMISSIONS PLAN TO INSTIGATE A SERIES OF LOCAL "DAYS OF
3 STRUGGLE??" TO HELP CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE CLIMATE FOR A GENERAL
STRIKE. THE FIRST OF THESE LOCALIZED STRIKES IS PLANNED FOR
NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE LIMITED TO CONSTRUCTION AND METAL WORKERS
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_IN THE MADRID AREA.Y
THERE ARE TWO PROBABLE REASONS FOR THIS:SETBACK TO THE
COMMUNISTS' LONG-STANDING GOAL OF A NATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE:
WORKERS ARE WORRIED ABOUT INVITING REPRESSION FROM THE
RIGHT, AND AR.E DISINCLINED TO STRIKE BECAUSE OF THE INCREASINGLY
DIFFICULT ECONOMIC SITUATION AND GROWING UNEMPLOYMENT. Y
COMMUNISTS HAVE REPORTEDLY ENCOUNTERED RESISTANCE TO
STRIKE ACTION FROM NON-COMMUNISTS WITHIN THE WORKERS' COMMISSIONS
AND STRONG OPPOSITION FROM THE TWO PRINCIPAL NON-COMMUNIST
CLANDESTINE TRADE UN.IONS.Y
THE COMMUNISTS REMAIN INSISTENT, HOWEVER, THAT SOME FORM OF
"DEMOCRATIC ACTION BY THE MASSES" IS REQUIRED TO PUT PRESSURE ON
JUAN CARLOSR' SUCCESSOR REGIME. THEY PROBABLY SEE THE LABOR SECTOR
AS OFFERING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR COUNTERING GOVERNMENT EFFORTS
TO ISOLATE THE COMMUNISTS FROM THE REST OF THE LEFT. {SECRET}Y
3. SPAIN: JUAN CARLOS' MOST PRESSING PROBLEM AS KING OF SPAIN
WILL SE TO SATISFY ', r{OSE WHO ARE EXPECTING SUBSTANTIAL REFORM AND NOT
TO ALIENATE THOSE WHO OPPOSE ALL CHANGE. ALTHOUGH COMPROMISE IS
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-ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH ESTABLISHED POLITICAL FORCES, THE NO-QUARTER
TACTICS OF SPAIN'S ASSORTED TERRORIST GROUPS'VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE
THAT AT LEAST' SOME OF THEM WILL CHALLENGE HIM, NO MATTER WHAT
POLICY HE PURSUES.Y
THERE ARE THREE MAIN CURRENTS OF SPANISH TERRORISM: REGIONAL
NATIONALISM, THE ULTRARIGHT, AND THE EXTREME LEFT. EACH PURSUES
DIFFERENT, AT TIMES CONFI...ICTING, GOALS. VIOLENCE IS THE ONLY
COMMON THREAD AMONG THEM. SINCE 19681 TERRORISM HAS CLAIMED THE LIVES
OF AT LEAST 100 SPANIARDS, APPROXIMATELY ONE THIRD OF WHOM WERE
TERRORISTS THEMSELVES. MORE THAN HALF THE FATALITIES HAVE OCCURRED
SIN THE PAST TWO YEARS, AND SINCE MID-OCTOBER, HARDLY A DAY HAS PASSED
WITHOUT AT LEAST ONE TERRORIST INCIDENT. Y
MUCH OF THE VIOLENCE IS ATTRIBUTED TO A SMALL GUERRILLA
ORGANIZATION CALLED BASQUE FATHERLAND AND LIBERTY. ALTHOUGH GENERALLY
CONSIDERED MARXIST, ITS PRINCIPAL FACTION EMPHASIZES NATIONALISM;
THIS FACTION AVOIDS ALLIANCES WITH OTHER MOVEMENTS. A SECOND
2 FACTION WOULD PREFER AN AUTONOMOUS, MARXIST-LENINIST BASQUE STATE
WITHIN A MARXIST FEDERATION OF SPANISH STATES; THIS FACTION WELCOMES
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THE COLLABORATION OF OTHER GROUPS-Y
BASQUE MILITANTS ARE USUALLY RECRUITED FROM UNIVERSITIES AND
HIGH SCHOOLS, WHERE THEY HAVE RECEIVED A STRICT CATHOLIC EDUCATION.
THE NUMBER OF MILITANTS, EITHER UNDERGROUND IN SPAIN OR IN.EXILE
IN SOUTHERN FRANCE, DOES NOT EXCEED 500 AND MAYBE CONSIDERABLY
SMALLER. ANOTHER ESTIMATED 700 ARE IN SPANISH JAILS-Y
MOST OF THE POPULATION OF THE FOUR BASQUE PROVINCES IN THE
NORTHWEST DOES NOT CONDONE VIOLENCE; NOT ALL BASQUES ARE CONVINCED
THAT THE MILITANTS' GOAL. OF INDEPENDENCE IS DESIRABLE. MANY WOULD BE
SATISFIED WITH SOME AUTONOMY, PARTICULARLY IN ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL
MATTERS. THE PEOPLE OF TWO OF THE BASQUE PROVINCES, ALAVA AND NAVARRA,
ARE MUCH LESS RESTIVE THAN THOSE IN THE OTHER TWO. ALAVA AND
NAVARRA HAVE GREATER ADMINISTRATIVE PRIVILEGES AND FINANCTA-.
INDEPENDENCE--TAX EARNINGS, FOR EXAMPLE, ARE NOT SENT TO MADRID--THAN
14 ANY OTHER SPANISH PROVINCE. THESE PRIVILEGES WERE A REWARD BESTOWED
BY FRANCO FOR HELP DURING THE CIVIL WAR-Y
ON NOVEMBER 11, THE CABINET ORDERED THE PREPARATION OF A NEW
ADMINISTRATIVE STATUTE FOR THE OTHER BASQUE PROVINCES. ALTHOUGH
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THE NEWS WAS FAVO::ABLY RECEIVED, ANOTHER DECREE AUTHORIZING THE
TEACHING AND USE OF MINORITY LANGUAGES HAD LESS APPEAL. THE BASQUES
FELT THIS ACTION DID NOT GIVE THEM ANYTHING THAT WAS NOT RIGHTFULLY
THEIRS AND WERE FURTHER IRKED BY A CLAUSE CONFIRMING THAT
CASTILIAN SPANISH IS THE COUNTRY'S OFFICIAL LANGUAGE.Y
BASQUE NATIONALISM IS, IN ANY CASE, A MINORITY MOVEMENT IN
THE BASQUE REGION. INDUSTRIALIZATION OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST
TWO DECADES HAS ATTRACTED AN ANNUAL AVERAGE OF 20,000 WORKERS FROM
OTHER PARTS OF SPAIN. TODAY, LESS THAN HALF OF THE 3 MILLION
INHABITANTS OF T`?F FOUR PROVINCES ARE OF BASQUE ORIGIN.Y
THE BASQUE NATIONALIST PARTY IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
BASQUE POPULATION THAN THE FATHERLAND AND LIBERTY GROUP. THE
NATIONALIST PARTY IS CAST IN A CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC MOLD AND
EMPHASIZES BOTH DEMOCRATIC AND BASQUE TRADITIONS. IT IS THE BEST
ORGANIZED AND MOST EXPERIENCED POLITICAL GROUP IN THE AREA, AND
IT COULD PLAY A LEADING ROLE IF MADRID RELAXED ITS BAN ON EXPRESSIONS
OF BASQUE NATIONALISM. WITHOUT FURTHER CONCESSIONS FROM THE CENTRAL
GOVERNMENT, HOWEVER, BASQUE FATHERLAND AND LIBERTY IS LIKELY TO GAIN
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__IN POPULARITY, PARTICULARLY AMONG THE YOUNG. ITS EXPLOITS GIVE IT
AN IMAGE OF "DOING SOMETHING," AND THE HARSH REPRESSION BY THE
GOVERNMENT CREATES SYMPATHY FOR ITS CAUSE?Y
SIMILAR, BUT LESS INTENSE, SENTIMENT IN FAVOR OF AUTONOMY
EXISTS IN THE 6 OUR NORTHEASTERN PROVINCES THAT MAKE UP CATALONIA.
WHEN THE ECONOMY OF THE AREA PROSPERS, AS IT HAS FOR MORE THAN A
DECADE, LITTLE SERIOUS TALK IS HEARD ABOUT SEPARATISM. CA"ALANS IN
GENERAL APPEAR MORE ATTRACTED TO COMMERCE THAN TO POLITICS. BARCELONA,
FOR INSTANCE, RIVALS MADRID IN SIZE AND IS SPAIN?S MOST IMPORTANT
INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL CENTER. CATALAN INDUSTRIALISTS ARE
RELUCTANT TO SUPPORT MOVEMENTS THAT MIGHT DISTURB THEIR BUSINESS IN
OTHER SPANISH PROVINCES-Y
CATALAN POLITICAL OPPOSITION GROUPS ARE DIVIDED AND
INEFFECTIVE. MOST ARE LED BY AGING PEOPLE WHO HAVE LITTLE APPEAL
TO THE YOUNG. THE UNIFIED SOCIALIST PARTY OF CATALONIA--AN AFFILIATE
OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY--AS BEEN THE MOST PROMINENT RECENTLY. IT
JOINED THE COMMUNIST-DOMINATED DEMOCRATIC JUNTA LAST YEAR AND
RECENTLY DEMANDED THE RELEASE OF ALL POLITICAL PRISONERS AND THE
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..ESTABLISHMENT OF PROVISIONAL GOVERNMENTS FOR BOTH SPAIN AND
CATALONIA. EXTREMIST GROUPS DO NOT OPERATE ON A LARGE SCALE. '
THE BEST KNOWN1 RED FLAG. HAS CONNECTIONS WITH THE COMMUNIST PARTY
AND IS ACTIVE AMONG STUDENTS AND LABOR ORGANIZATIONS?Y
SPAIN'S POLITICAL OUTLAWS ARE NOT CONFINED TO THE FAR LEFT;
TERRORISTS ARE QUITE STRONG ON THE FAR RIGHT. BEFORE FRANCO DIED, A
GROUP CALLING ITSELF THE DEATH COMMANDOS WARNED 7 PROMINENT CATALANS
ASSOCIATED WITH REFORM GROUPS TO LEAVE SPAIN WITHIN 24 HOURS AFTER
THE GENERAL'S DEATH OR FACE ASSASSINATION?Y
THE SPANISH NATIONAL SOCIALIST PARTY--COMPLETE WITH SWASTIKA--HAS
OPERATED IN MADRID AND BARCELONA FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS. THE. NATIONAL
SOCIALISTS SPECIALIZE IN IDENTIFYING AND BOMBING R?MARXIST" BOOKSTORES
AND LEFTIST ORGANIZATIONS. THEY ONCE ATTEMPTED TO BURN DOWN THE PALACE
OF THE ARCHBISHOP OF BARCELONA BECAUSE OF HIS SYMPATHETIC ATTITUDE
TOWARD WORKERS' GRIEVANCES.Y
ANOTHER GROUP, THE GUERRILLAS OF CHRIST THE KING, HAS
GAINED CONSI?)LRABLE NOTORIETY BECAUSE OF ITS VIGILANTE-STYLE
CAMPAIGN AGAINST BASQUE TERRORISTS. IN RECENT MONTHS, THE GROUP
DATE:
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 ?a^ COI ACP TOO TTI MRO DCI PAGE OP PAGES
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.HAS EXECUTED SEVERAL BASQUES IN RETALIATION FOR TERRORIST
ASSASSINATIONS OF SPANISH POLICEMEN. IT HAS ALSO CAUSED
DIPLOMATIC PROBLEMS WITH FRANCE BECAUSE OF RAIDS ACROS7 THE
BORDER LOOKING FOR BASQUE EXILES. OVER THE YEARS, THE GROUP HAS
BEEN EQUALLY HOSTILE TOWARD ANY OTHER GROUP THAT FAVORED ALTERING
FRANCO'S SYSTEM.'
UNDER FRANCO, SPANISH ULTRARIGHT GROUPS HAD THE ADVANTAGE
OF OPERATING AS FAIRLY OPEN, QUASI-LEGAL ENTITIES TOLERATED BY THE
REGIME. RIGHT-WING EXTREMISTS HAVE BEEN INTERVIEWED IN THE PRESS
AND AT LEAST TWO RIGHTIST ORGANIZATIONS HAVE BEEN CONDUCTING
TRAINING CAMPS FOR URBAN WARFARE. THE ULTRARIGHTISTS HAVE A POLITICAL:
ARM CALLED NEW FORCE. LED BY BLAS PINAR, WHO WAS PROMINENT IN THE
CIVIL WAR, THE ORGANIZATION DENOUNCES ANY DEVIATION FROM THE
PRINCIPLES FRANCO SET OUT IN 1g3&. IT THEREFORE IS BASICALLY
4 ANTI-MONARCEiICAL AND PRESUMABLY WILL OPPOSE JUAN CARLOS?Y
OVER THE YEARS A VARIETY OF FAR-LEFT ANARCHIST GROUPS HAVE
APPEARED. MOST HAVE FADED AWAY WITHOUT MAKING MUCH IMPACT,
VICTIMS OF INTERNAL DISPUTES OR GOVERNMENT SUPPRESSION. THE
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^ IP POLES JL
.ANTI-FASCIST AND PATRIOTIC REVO;.!ITIONARY FRONT IS AN IMPORTANT
EXCEPTION. ORGANIZED IN 1971 BY MILITANTS OF A COMMUNIST SPLINTER
GROUP, THE ORGANIZATION MAY NOW HAVE AS MANY AS 5013 MEMBERS. MANY
OF THEM ARE IN FRANCE, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO 25X1C
SPAIN IN INC1EASING NUMBERS NOW THAT FRANCO HAS DIED-Y
.//THE FRONT HAS PUT SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON PREPARING 1"3R
5X1
'INTENSIVE AND VIOLL:NT REVOLUTIONARY ACTION FOLLOWING FRANCO'C
DEATH. THIS GROUP HAS
MADE JUAN CARLOS A PRIMARY TARGET FOR ASSASSINATION. THE FRONT'S
DEEP-SEATED ANIMOSITY TOWARD THE US ALSO POSES A THREAT TO US
PROPERTY AND US CITIZENS IN SPAIN-//Y
POLITICAL VIA-,ENCE IS VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO BE A PROBLEM FOR
JUAN CARLOS. IF, AS SEEMS LIKELY, HE ALLOWS FREER POLITICAL
EXPRESSION, THE FAR LEFT WILL NOT BE SATISFIED AND THE ULTRARIGHT
WILL BE OUTRAGED. TO THE EXTENT THAT SPANISH SOCIETY BECOMES MORE
3 OPEN AND MORE TOLERANT OF DISSENT, THE PROSPECTS OF THE TERRORISTS'
RALLYING SUPPORT WILL DWINDLE. WITH THIS IN MIND, AND WITH THE HOPE
OF AVOIDING MAKING MARTYRS, SPANISH OFFICIALS MAY MODIFY THE HARSH
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED E 2 IMPDET
Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RDP86T00608R00030007;1D8B:
 ? ~r ? _I
SIGNAL GINT614 US4 ONLY
ADt COI AC. TOO TPt Y110 DCI AD^ OF PADti
OMF p &ppro\d Forffelease2001/I8/21 : CIA-RDP86TOO608R000300010085-616
INDEX D:SSEM BY:
0
0 ND INDtII _
IIITUIIN TO PER
I,J IF MILLS
JUAN CARLOS WILL VERY LIKELY STILL HAVE TROUBLE DEALING WITH
TERRORISM. IF THE GOVERNMENT PURSUES LEFT-WING FANATICS WITH MORE
VIGOR THAN IT DOES THE FANATICS ON THE FAR RIGHT, JUAN CARLOS WILL
--ANTI-TERRORIST LABS NOW ON THE BOOKS.Y
BE ACCUSED OF PERPETUATING THE FRANCO SYSTEM. IF THE CRACKDOWN; IS
APPLIED IN AN EVEN-HANDED MANNER, THE KING WILL RISK LOSING THE
WHOLE-HEARTED SUPPORT OF A LARGE PART OF WHAT IS NOW THE SPANISH
i
RULING CLASS. {SECRET 4.F$'Rtt}6i'
A
4. CZECHOSLOVAKIA: THE PARTY DAILY RUDE PRAVO LAST FRIDAY ADDED
A NEU FILLIP TO PRAGUE'S CONTINUING ATTACK ON I1AOISM BY AS-
SERING THAT IT IS THE DUTY OF THE ENTIRE COMMUNIST
MOVEMENT TO TAKE SIDES AGAINST PEKING.Y
TWO SIGNED COMMENTARIES SET THE TONE OF THE
UNUSUAL FULL-PAGE ASSAULT BY DESCRIBING PEKING'S
FOREIGN POLICY AS FOMENTING TENSIONS AND OPPOSING
DETENTE. THE CATALOG OF CHINESE ~iNS INCLUDES
BREAKING RANKS WITH THE REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT AND
BECOMING A "FACTUAL ALLY OF IMPERIALISM," THUS
DATE:
.ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
REPRODUCTION BY OTHER THAN THE ISSUING OFFICE IS PROHIBITED IMPDET
Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RDP86T00608R0003000'0
 Apf~?bved r6r ReIe??se 20'1`1/08/2'"r CIA-RIDP86TOO608R000300010085-6 '"?` OI '"?"
0 0 0 0 0 0 18 18
Crro MIS AGI RNPIMONCI NUMORM
_SAN MARINO, SWISS, GREEK, CYPRIOT, AND IRISH WERE
:1O INONX
ANTUNN :o PER
CONSPICUOUSLY ABSENT FROM RUDE PRAVO'S LIST. THEIR
INSISTENCE THAT ANTI-CHINESE POLEMICS HAVE NO PLACE
AT AN ECPC HAS BEEN ONE OF THE OBSTACLES TO CON-
VENING THE CONFERENCE. A QUOTE FROM ITALIAN PARTY
LEADER BERLINGUER IS GIVEN PRIDE OF PLACEI AP-
PARENTLY IN ORDER TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT
ITALIAN COMMUNISTS HAVE RESOLUTELY TAKEN SIDES AGAINST THE CHINESE.
THIS, HOWEVER, APPEARS A GROSS MISREPRESENTATION OF THE ITALIAN PARTY'S
POSITION, AND COULD WELL DRAW ANSWERING FIRE. TCONFIDENTIAL}
IMPDET?9r1
SDO DDODO
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
EXT:
NOVEMBER 28, ICI75
OCI/FLO
9106
CI,Am1.ICAiION Approved For geQea?se 1b'b /b 9 1T"EC b
Appro $o86TSja& 8b0l3T0010 IMPDET
-~v: 010725