EUROPEAN BRIEF 177.754

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010079-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 35
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 23, 2001
• Sequence Number: 79
• Publication Date: November 17, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

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Approved For Release 2001/08/21 :CIA-RDP86T0060>~F{~Ob3'0'0010079-3
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77
Approved For Release 2001/08/21 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010079-3
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1. PORTUGAL: MORE THAN 20,^^^ COMMUNISTS AND THEIR ALLIES t1ARCIlED
THROUGH THE STREETS OF LISBON SUNDAY NIGWT, BUT THEY DISPERSED
PEACEFULLY WITFI NO SIGN OF THE ^II~..~RRECTION" PREDICTED BY
THE SOCIALISTS AND POPULAR DEMOCP.ATS.4'
AT THE RALLY, THE COMMUNISTS USED 'SHE "SPECULATIVE
FEARSt~" OF THE ANTI-COMMUNIST PARTIES TO PLAY U'rI THEIR "FIRM
RESOLVE TO ADVANCE TOWARD SOCTALISM.^ DESPITE CALLS FROM THE
CP,OWD FOR THE OVERTHP.OW OF PRIME MINISTER AZEVEDO AND THE
P.ETURN OF PRO-COMMUNIST FORMER 1''RIME MINISTER GONCALVES~~
PlOST COMMUNISTS ARE PROBABLY WILLING TO SETTLE FOR A
GOVERNMENT SHAKEUP THAT WOULD RETIJP,N COMMUNIST SYMPATHIZERS TO
ADVA~JTAGEOUS POSITIONS IN THE CABINET AND IN THE ALL-MIL.ITAP.Y
P.EVOLUTT_ONARY COUNCIL. IN THIS WAY, THE PARTY CAN AVOID THE
RIGHT-UTNG BACKLASH THAT WOULD ALMOST CEP,TAINLY FOLLOW A
COMMUNIST-LEA COUP ATTEMPT.4'
_ ONE SPEAKER AT THE RALLY DECLARED, "WE DIDN'T COME
. MERE TO ASSAULT THE GOVERNMENT, EUT TO DCMAND A TRANSFER OF
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POWEP..^ PARTY !..FADER CUNHAL, WHO BEGAN AN CAST EUROP~:AN
TOUR SATURDAY, RESPONDED TO SOCIALIST AND POPULAR DEMOCRATIC
CHARGES TN HUNGARY, 7:NS?'STING TiiAT THE COMMUNISTS DO NOT PLAN
TO TAKE POWER BY FORCE.4'
IN CONTRAST, A RIVAL DEMONSTRATION IN THE NORTHERN TOWN
OF VISEU TO SHOW SU?PORT FOR THE AZEVEDO GOVERNMENT WAS
MAP,RED BY DISTENSION BETWEEN THE "1AJ(~R DEMOCRATIC PARTIES.
SOCIALIST LEADER SOARES PULLED HIS PA~2TY OUT OF THE RA:.LY AT THE
LAST MINUTE. SOARES CI~ARGED THAT THE CENTER-LEFT POPULAR
DEMOCRATS WERE TRYING TO USE THE GATHERING FOR PARTISAN PURPOSES
BY INSISTING THAT PARTY HEAD SA (:ARNEIRO--WHO HOLDS NO GOVERNMENT
POSITION--SPEAK AT THE PALLY. THE SOCIALISTS ARE i~ARY OF
BECOMING T00 CLOSE TO THE POPULAR DEMOCRATS AND LOSING PART OF
TI-tEIP. BASE OF SIJPPORT, EITFIER TO THE LEFT OR TO THE RIGHT. Y
A CROW;, OF 7,5,000 TURJ~JE:D OUT iN VISEU DESPITE THE
SOCIALIST BOYCOTT. LABOR MINISTER TOMAS ROSA SPOKE FOR PRIME
MINISTER AZtVEDO, WHO REMAINED IIJ LISBON TO REST UP AFTER THE
36-HOUR SIEGE OF HIS P.ESIDENCE LAST WEEK BY CONSTRUCTION
DATE:
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? WOP.KERS. TOMAS ROSA COND~fINED THE WOP.KEtZS' STRIKE AND PROMISED
Tt{E PRESENT TNDI`'CIPLINE CONTINUES, THE AZORES lIILL P.EFUSE TO
SECUP.ITY TROOPS SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT. THE JUNTA WARNED TI{A'i IF
'. HE CftO61D THAT ^THE GOVERNMENT WILL NOT GIVE W~1Y^ TO THE
WORKERS, [JHO ARE BEING MANIPULATED BY POLIT'IC.4LLY MOTIVATED
LEADERS. 4'
TIiERE IS SOME EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT TOMAS ROSA'S HINT THAT
THE GOVERNMENT MAY BE ABLE TO SAVE SOME FACE BY NOT GRANTING
ALL THE WORKERS' DEMANDS. AZEVEDO REPORTEDLY TOLD POPULAR
DEMOCRATIC LEADERS THAT NO OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS REACHED IN THE
NEGOTIATIONS, ALTHOUGH THE PRO-COP1MUNISi' PRESS HAS PLAYED THE
It?JCIDEPJT AS A TOTAL VICTORY. THE GOVERIMENT DiD TEMPORARILY
ACCEPT THE UNION'S PROPOSED WAGE SCALE--AN AVERAGE INCREASE OF
28 PERCENT--BUT DEMANDS FOR IMPROVED WORKING CONDITIONS AND AN
INQUIRY Z'NTO THE LAE30R MINISTRY ARE STILL OPEN TO QUES'T'ION ? 4'
MEANWHILE, INCREASED LEFT-DING ACTIVITY IN LISE30N IS ONCE
~- AGAIN HAVIPJG AN It^i'ACT IN THE AZORES. THE SIX-MAN P. GIONAL
JUNTA ISSUED A COMMUN?-CLUE ON SATURDAY DEMANDING TFIAT MAINLAND
DATE:
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SUBMIT TO A GOVERNMENT IN A ^STATE OF ANARCHI'" AND WILL REJECT
ANY MAINLA~~D GOVERNMENT THAT DOES NOT REPRESENT THE WILL OF THE
MAJORITY SECRETARY OF STATE FOR INFORMATION FERP,EIRA
DA CUNHA--WHO IS IN THE AZORES TC ESCAPE LEFT-WING PRESSURE FOR
HIM TO RESIGN--REPORTED THAT HE HELPED DRAFT THE D~CUMENT.4'
APPEALS FOR MILITARY DISCIPLINE AP.E UNLIKELY TO 8E
EFFECTIVE, HOUEVER, SO LONG AS GENERAL CARVALHO TS IN A POSITION
OF INFLUENCE. THE REMOVAL OF CARVALHO AS COMMANDER OF THE EISBON
f1ILI:TARY REGION APJD HIS REPLACEMENT BY ANTI-COMMUNIST CAPTAIN
VAS CO LOURENCO P,EPORTEDLY WAS DISCUSSED LAST SATURDAY AT A
MEETING OF THE REVOLUTIONARY COUNCIL. A FIt:AL DECISION ON
CAP.VALHO'S P.Et".OVAL F1AS BEEN POSTPOPJED.4'
CAP.VALHO' S OUP"TER ISM BEING PUSHED BY FOREIGN MINISTER
ANTUNES' ANTI-COMMUNIST FACTION. ITS SUCCESS PROBABLY LIES IN
'-; THE HAND: OF PRESIDEPJT COSTA COMES, WHO HAS BEEN HESITANT TO
.REMOVE RADICAL OFFICERS FP.OM HIGH POSITIONS. POSSIBLY TO GAIN
~~COSTA COMES' ASSENT, THE ANTUNES GROUP MAY TRY TO ^KICK
_CARVALHO UPSTAIRS^ TO THE POSITIO~J OF VICE CHIEF OF STAFF OF
DATE:
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? THE ARMED FORCES IN ORDER TO RFi10VE HIM FROM DIRECT CONTACT
WITH RADICAL TROOPS. {COiJFIDE~ITIAL} ? ~'
~. SPAIN: PfIINCE JUAN CARLuS IS EXTRACTIIJG MAY,TMUM ADVANTAGE OUT
OF HIS STATUS AS ='TEM?ORAR4'^ HEAD OF STATE.'r'
CAPITALIZING OPJ THE EMERGENCY NATJP.E CF THE SAHARA PROELEM,
E{E HAS ACTED DECISIVELY AND IS GIVEN MUCFI ^F THE CREDIT FOR
P.EVEP,SING THE MOROCCAN MARCH? HIS LEADERSHIP IMAGE Hp,S BEEN
STRENGTHENED QY FJIS CHAIP.ING OF TfJO PJATIONAL DEFENCE COUNCIL
MEETINGS-?--SOMET~~.iNG FP.ANCO RARELY DID. JUAN CARLOW HANDLING
0~ THE SAHARA ISSUE TO DATE HAS p.LSO IMPROVED HIS RAPPORT WITH
TOP MILITARY LEADERS UHOSE SUPPORT HE WILL NEED IN THE i10NTl-JS
TO COME.4'
ALTHOUGH JUAN CARLOS HAS NOT BEEN AS ASSERTIVE ON DOMESTIC
ISSUES, FP.ANC0~181' S CONTINUED PP.ESENCE HAS GIVEN THE f'RTPJCE AN EXCUSE
? NOT TO 6E. EVEN. S0, THE MEDIA EJAVE AP:'LAUDE.D JUAN CARLOS FOP. THE
,, RECENT INDICATIONS THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS TA!;ING STEPS Ts~ RESOL~IE THE
? SENSITIVE ISSUE OF REGIONALISM. ON NOVEMBER !,1 THE CAQINET
ADOPTED ADECREE--INITIATED SEVERAL MONTHS AGO--SETTIPJG UP A
DATt::
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COMMISSION TO PREPARE A S~~ECIAL .;DMI:NTSTRATIVE STATUTE FOR Tf00
OF THE BASQUE ~R~VINCES. THE MEASURE INDICATES THAT THE
GOVERNMENT TS THIPIKING 0!= POLITICAL MEP.NS--RATHER THAN REPRESSION--TO
COPE WITH THE BASQUE PR08LEM. THE PRESS HAS ALSO REPORTED THAT A
DECREE APPROVED LAST MAY AUTHOPIZING THE TEACHING OF REGIONAL
LANGUAGES IN SCHOOLS AND THEIR USE IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
MILL ALSO BE rSSUED SOON?~'
IN GENERAL, HOfilEVER, THERe= TS A i'ARALYS~S TN DOMESTIC
POLICY-MAKING UHICH UILL PROBABLY CONTINUE AS LOPJG AS FRANCO
LIVES. DUP,:CNG T~iE INTERREGNUM THE ACTIVTTTtC OF THE U!_TRA RIGHT--IF
LEFT UNCFfECKED--WILL COMPLICATE JUAM CARLOS'~EFFORTS TO OPEN UP
SPANISH SOCIETY AFTER HE IS SIJORN IN ~'~S` KING. BLAS PINAR, LEADER OF
THE ULTRA RIGHT PJE~~1 FOP.CE, HAS BEEN HOLDING r~4LLIES
AROUND THE COUNTRY UAP.PJING OF THE DANGERS POSED
BX POLITICAL PARTIES. POI~JTING OUT THAT THE MONARCHY IJILL DERIVE
yTS LEGITIMACY SOLEL`~ FROM FRAAJCO, HE HAS CALLED ON JUAN CARLOS TO
PURGE THE GOVERNMENT OF ALL L1H0 HAVE ~vOT SUPPORTED FRANCOISI'1.4'
P.IGHT-UI~JG EXTREMISTS, SUCH AS THE GUEP.RT_LLAS OF CHRIST THE
DATE;
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KING, WHO HAVE BEErJ L?'rJKED TO THE MEW FORCE, HAVE RECENTLY BEATEN
UP STUDENT DEt10MSTRATO?S AND GPPOSITION LAb1YERS, AND SENT
THREATENING LETTERS TO OPPOSITIO"JISTS AND EVEN :'v SOr1E OF THE
MOPE OPErJ-f1INDED ESTABLISHMENT FTGURES.4'
SECUP,ITY FORCES, MEAN[~1HILE, HAVE TAKEN FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE
WIDE PO[~JERS GRAPJTED 8Y LAST SUi1i~ER'S ANTI-TERRORIST DECREES TO
STEP UP ARRESTS AND REPRESS ALL FORMS OF DISSENT? IN THE PAST FEW
DAYS, ACCOP.DING TO PP,ESS ESTIMATES, MORE THAN 100 PEOPLE HAVE
BEEN ARP.ESTED, INCLUDIr~G THE EDITOP. OF THE. PRE~TI:GTOUS INDEPENDENT
NELSPAPER YA8 WHO JAS INDICTED FOP. PUBLISHING AN ARTICLE ON
THE SUCCESSION. SI7( P?~ESTS HAVE BEEN FINED BECAUSE OF THEIR
SEP.MCNS, AND THE GOVEP.NMENT HAS BANNED SEVEP.AL CONFERENCES BY
If1POP,TANT PROrESSORS, irJCLUDIPJG FORMER tiINISTER RUIZ GIr1ENEZ.'~'
JUArJ CARLOS bIILL rJOT BE ABLE TO POSTPONE DOMESTIC POLLCY
DECISIOhJS MUCH LOrJGEP. EVE~~ IF FRANCO LIVES. A DECISION IS DUE ON
. A SUCCESSOR FOP, RODRIGUEZ DE VALCAP?.CEL, THE CONSEP,VATIVE
-_ PP,ES?'DENT OF PARLIAMEt;T CHOSE SIX-YEAR TERM EXPIRES LATER THIS
'. MONTH? ThE POSITION IS IMPORTA^JT BECAUSE THE INCUMBENT
UATE:
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AUTOJ~ATTCALLY BECOMES Pf;ESIDENT OF THE COUNCIL OF THE REALM,
WHICH IS T?iSTP.UMENTAL IN THE CHOICE OF NEW PRIME MINISTERS, AND
THE THP.EE-MAN COUNCIL OF THE REGENCY, WHICH WILL GOVERN FROM THE
TIME OF FP.ANCO'S DEATH UNTIL JUAN CARLOS IS SWORD! IN.S'
SHOULD JUAN CAP.LOS DECIDE TO RETAIN P.ODRIGUEZ DE VALCA.RCEL,
THE DECISION uJILL EE INTERPRETED BY THE SPANISF4 LEI=T AS FRANCOT~SM
WITHOUT FRANCO. IF SOMEONE ELSE IS ;;HOSEN, ISIS POLITICAL CREDENTIALS
WILL BE CAREFULLY EXAMINED FOR CLUES AS TO THE DIRECTION IN l~1HICH.
JUAN CARLOS PLANS TO 'TAKE SPAIP;. {tv~vFIDENTIAL}~4'
3. USSP.: ACCORDING TO AN OFFICIAL AT THE SOVIET EMBASSY
PAR"f Y BOSS BREZ;~NEV [.;ILL ATTEND THE NEXT
CONGRESS OF 'J'HE POLISH COMMUNIST PARTY WHICH TS
SCHEDULED TO BEG'[N ON DECEMBER 8. ASSUNING HE GOES,
IT WILL BE THE LATH FOREIGN PAP,TY CONGRESS TO HIS
CREDIT. HE HcADS THE LIST OF FULL MEMBERS OF THE
POLITBURO PERFO~ZMING THIS CHOREA'
SINCE BECOMING GENERAL SECJ'ETARY IN L964,
BREZHNEV HA,S COPJCENTP.ATED ON THE SIX EAST EUROPEAN
DATE:
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M! 53AG! .~ ~'~:-'~ + '~ )~CATGR DAT!?71M! GROUP crre Mea3A09 RlPeRlNG! NUM!!R
. MEMBEP.S IN MORE OR LESS GOOD STANDING OF THE
"SOCIALIST COf1MOPJWEALTH^, LEAVING ^LESS IMPORTANT^
CONGRESSES TO OTHER MEMBERS OF THE POLITBURO. HE
ATTENDED THE ROMANIAN CONGRESS IN L`165, BUT IN L974
LEFT THE JOB OF P.EPRESENTING THE CPSU IN BUCHAP.EST
TO KIP.ILENKO. TFIAT SA11E YEAR, KIP.TI.ENKO ALSO AT-
TENDCD THE YUGOSLAV CONGRESS, THUS ENDING THE LONG-
STANDI~JG SOVIET PP.ACTICE OF BOYCOTTING CONGRESSES
OF TriE YUGOSLAV PARTY. KIP,ILENKO AND PELSHE EACH
HAS SIX CONGRESSES UNDER HIS BELT.M
FULL MEPIBERS OF THE POLITBURO WITH HIGHLY
VISIBLE GOVEP.NPIENT POSITIONS DO NOT ATTEND THE
CONGRESSES OF FO~:EIGN PAP,TIES. ANDROPOV, GRECHKO,
GROMYKO, KOS1'GIN, MAZUROV, ANA PODGORNY HAVE NOT
ATTENDED A FOP.EICN PAP,TY CONGRESS IN THE LAST LO
YEARS. {ANDP,OPOV AND f1AZUROV EACH ATTENDED ONE
CONGRESS DUPING THIS PERIOD, BUT NEITHER AT THE
TIME IJAS A FULL MEMBEP, OF THE CPSU POLITBURO.}
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R!~lASApp;oE ed For Release 2001/~~,~;~A71~I~jR86T00608R00030001p,Q~~.,~ATINOOP PI:IR
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KULAKOV AND POLYANSKY NAVE ALSO ATTENDED NO FOREIGN
PARTY CONGRESSES. {~ICONFIDENTIALiS'
4. YUGOSLAVIA-BULHGARIA: SOFIA AND BELGRADE HAVE APPARENTLYr'
DECIDED TO TRY TO COME TO GRIPS UITH Tf~E SEF_MINGLY OMNIPRESENT
PROBLEMS IN THEIR BILATERAL RELATIONS. ~UTCK SOLU-
TIONS AP,E NOT LIKELY, BUT, PROVIDED BOTH SIDES ABIDE
BY THE NEIJ SPIRIT OF REASONA9LEP:ESS, THEP.E COULD BE
A HIATUS IN THE Sf~UABBLTNG BETC!EEN THE TG10 BALKAN
RIVALS.4'
THE NEfil ATTITUDE EMERGED DUPING BULGARIAN FOR -
SIGN MINISTER PE:TUP. MLADENOV'S VISIT TO BELGRADE
FROM NOVEMBER ',1 TO ti3. IN TALKS IJITH HIS YUGOSLAV
COUNTERPART MILOS MINK, MLADE~JOI' APPARENTLY AD-
DRESSED MAJOP. BILATEPAL ISSUES, INCLUDING THE SEN-
SITIVE M/+CEDONIAN PROBLEM. PRESS ANNOUNCEMENTS RE-
PERKED TO THE DISCUSSIONS AS "FRIPJEDLY" AND "FP.ANK,"
AND DESCRIBED THE ATMOSPHERE AS O~dE OF ^FULL OPEN-
:. NESS AND P.EADINESS" TO DISCUSS THEIR DIFFICULTIES.4
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? MIiJIC AND MLADENOV AvREED ON AN EVENTUAL MEET-
ING OF PP.ESI'DENTS TITO AND ZHIVKOV TO DISCUSS ^IJAYS
AND MEANS^ FCR RESOLVING THEIP. DISPUTES. THE SU!~-
MI'P IS, HOfJEVER, CLEARLY DEPENDENT ON AN EFFORT BY
THE T[10 SIDES TC LIMIT POLEMICS. 4'
DURING TOASTS AT OFFICIAL DINNERS IN BELGRADE,
BOTH MEPJ P.ECITED THEIR DIFFERENCES, BUT SAID THE
PROBLEMS SHOULL NOT RllLE OUT FUTURE CLOSE 000PERA-
TION IPJ ALL SPHERES. THE COMMU~JTQUE SUMt1ARIZ:iNG
THE TALKS ACCENTUATED A MUTUAL DESIRE TO IMPROVE
RELATIONS BASED ON Tt-iE PRINCTPL~S OF "EQUALITY, IN-
DEPENDENCE, RESPECT FOR TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY?.?
AND NCNINTERFERENCE TN INTERNAL AFFAIP.S.~~"M
THE COMMUNI(JIJE ATTACHED "EXCEPTIONAL IMPOR-
TANCER TO MUTUAL EFFORTS TO HARNESS ^INFORMATION
AC.TIVITIES^ AS A t1EAP~S OF BUILDING AN ATt10SHPERE
OF TRUST. THIS PftESUMABLY MEANS THAT VOCIFEROUS
YUGOSLAV PRESS POLEMICS AND THE OCCASIONAL INFLAM-
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MATO~Y PUBLICATIONS APPEARING TN BULGARIA WILL BE
HELD IfJ CHECK FOR A TIME. M
AGREEING TO DISCUSS THEIP, DIFFERENCES IS THE
f10ST Pr OGR(~SS TOWARD IMPROVI~JG YUGOSLAV-BULGARIAN
RELAT ~ O;IS' IN SEVEF;AL YEARS. A NUMBER OF FACTORS
COULD STILL UNDERMINE THESE GOOD INTENTIONS. THE
MAST 2;1"1EDIATE TIIREAT IS THE BULGARIAN CENSUS SCHED-
ULED FOP, DECEMBER, WyICEI WILL, BELGRADE FEARS, OMIT
A CATEGORY FOR MACEDONIANS. JOINTLY CLAIMED CUL-
TURAL HEROES, THE ROLE OF THE BIJLGAf:IAN MILITAP.Y IN
"LIB=?ATING^ YUGOSLAVIA DUP,I'JG WOP.LD WAR II, AND
BELGP,ADE'S I~ARINESS OF SOFIA. AS A STAND-IN FOR SO-
VIET I~JTEP.ESTS ALL OFFER FIOTHEADS ON BOTH SIDES OF
THE BORDER OPPORTUNITIES TO SCOTCH ANY PROGRESS.M
O.J BALKAN COOPERATION A~?dD THE PP,OPOSED CARA-
MANLIS C0~1FEP.ENCE, THE TWO SEEf1 TO BE MOVING CLOSER
TOGETHEP.. STRESSING THE I(~IPORTANCE OF BILATERAL
COOPERATIO~J, MINK AND MLADEPJOV SUPPORTED f1ULTILAT-
DATE:
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ERAL EFFORTS ^ONLY IN THOSE FIELbS THAT ARE REALLY
ACCEPTABLE AND OF INTERECT TO THE BALKAN COUNTRIES.^
SOF:ID, HAD DECLARED IT I:, AGAIr1ST ANY MULTILATERAL
ACTIVITY OF A POLITICAL NATURE, AND BELGRADk ::AS
EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS PREMATIJP.E EVEN TO CONSIDER
AMBITIOUS INTER-BALKAN TT~S. {COh1FIDENTIAL}4' '
5. ROMANIA= IN AN UNPRECE~~JDENTED MOVE, fiUCHARE`."T HAS PUBLICLY
REVEALED TEJAT A MILITARY OFFICER HAS CCMMTTTED SERIOUS SABOTAGE.4
ON OCTOBER 28, THE PARTY DAILY SCINTEIA CARRIED A BRIEF
ANNOUNCEMEPJT THAT THE DEATI' SEi1TE(~aCE FOR SABOTAGE Ai;AINST NAVY
COMMANDEF MIH/,T RUSU HAD BEEN COMMUTED BY PRESIDENTAL DECREE TO 15
TO 20 YEARS IN PRISON.'
THERE TS NO'P LIKELY TO BE ANY FURTHER PUBLICITY ON THE CASE,
AND TH(= GOSSIP-LOVING ROPIANIANS WILL PP.OBABLY SEE THE REA'.
SIGNIFICANCE OF 'fl-IE STORY IN THE QUESTIONS IT LEAVES UNANSWERED. THEY
WILL WOPJDER--AS DO WE--ABOUT WHY PP.ESIDE:NT CEAUSESCU GRANTED EXECU-
TIVE CLEMENCY TO A SERVING OFFICER WHO'E CRIMc: WARRANTED THE FIR:[NG
SQUAD. THE4E WILL SURELY BE SPECULATION ABOUT WHAT RUSU DID AND
DATE:
ORI:~:
UNIT:
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FLURtiY OF RUM02S ABOUT SABOTAGE BY UNHAPPY INDUSTRIAL WORKERS A L.TTTLE
."LORE THAN A YEAR AGO CENTEP.ED ON POUR WORKING CONDITIONS IN FACTORIES.
NONE OF THEM MENTIONED MILITARY -~EN OR ANY KIND OF DESTRUCTION AT
MILITARY ~rISTALLATIONS. {CONFIDENTIAL}4
6. EUtOPEAN PARTY CONFERENCE: A RECENT ARTICEL ON INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNISTi IN THE SLOVAK ?ARTY DAILY, PRVDA, MAY FURTHER ROIL THE
TROU3LED WATERS SL'RP,OUNDING THE PREPARATIONS OF TI-k: EUROPEAN
COMMUNIST PARTY CONFERENCE {tCPC'r? IT ALSO DEMONSTRATES THE WIDENING
GULF BETWEEN THE LOYALIST APJD IPJDEPENDENT WINGS OF TI-JE Mn'vEMENT?4'
~fRITTEN BY IVAN HLIVKA, THE SLOVAK i~EDIA'S CHIEF COMMENTATOR ON
THE ECPC, Ti-IE' ARTICLE REFLECTS FP,USTRATION WITH THE FOOTDRAGGING THA'"
HAS REPEATEDLY DELAYED TFJE PROJECT. IT IS SUBSTANTIALLY HI~RSHER THAN
~ ONE yLIVKA PUBLISHED IN FEBP.UAP,Y. INDEPEPJDENT-MINDEll PARTIES, WHICH
%ARE SUBJECTED TO A THINLY VEILED ATTACK IN THE ARTICLE, DILL UMDOUBT-
EDLY BE TEMPTED TO RESPOND IN KIND.4'
IN A DIRECT SLAP AT THE FRENCH, ITALIAN, AND SPANISH PARTIES,
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HLIVKA ECHOES THE ZARODOV LINE, BLASTING THE ADOPTION OF ^NEUTRA ~ISM^
BY NO(~!-RUi.ING COMMUNIST PARTIES IN ORDER TO COURT THE FAVOR OF
NATIONAL ELECTORATES. SUCH INDEPENDENT POSTURING AND ^DISASSOCI ATION
FROM THE COMMON FIGHT,^ HE ARGUES, CARRIES ^THE DANGER OF SLTPPI NG
INTO NATIONALISM.^ HE ALSO WARNS AGAINST DIVISIVE BOURGE03S TACTICS
AIMED AT MISLEADING COMi1UNTS'fS 1NT0 PUBLICLY "PROVING THAT THEY? ARE
INDEPENDENT OF MOSCOW.Y
IN A POTSHOT AT THE R0;1ANIAN AND YUGOSLAV PARTIES, HLIVKA
ASSERTS THAT THE "OLD OPPOP.TIJNISM^ TS CONSTANTLY STRIVING TO STRENC'~'I~-~
EN ITSELF WITH NEId, "MODERN" ARGUMENTS AND METHODS OF STRUGGLE. HE
SAYS THE BASIS OF THIS APPROACH--NATIONA!_ISf1--IS THE MOST DANGEP.OUS
WEAPON OF ANTI-COMMUNIST STP,ATEGY.M
HLIVKA FLATLY REJECTS THE YUGOSLAV AND ROMANIAN VIEW THAT THE
COMINTERN P.ODE ROU,'HSHOD OVER THE ;RIGHTS AND INTEiESTS OF THC
?? INDIVIDUAL PARTIES IN DEFERENCE TO MOSCOW'S ^NARROW NATIONAL"
INTERESTS. ALI_ SUCH ATTACKS ON PP,OLETARIAN INTERNATIONA~ISf1, HE
? CONTENDS, ARE ^INTENDED TO EVOKE AVEP.SION^ TO UNITED ACTION BY THE
MOVEMEIJT.4'
DATE:
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1,? ~PANI~H SAHARA: CQANISFI COPJSULTATTONS WITH ALGERIA OVER
THE WE~KEIVD ON THE TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT WORKED OUT LAST WEEK OP:
SPANISH SAHARA APPAREN`PLY DID NOTHING TO OVERCOME ALGERIAN
OPPOSITION i0 THE ACCORD?4'
NEITHER THE SPANISH NOR THE ALGERIANS HAVE COMMENTED ON THE?
TALKS HELD SATURDAY IN ALGIERS BETWEEN MADRID'S SPECIAL ENVOY,
MIPJISTER OF DEIVELOPMENT PLANNING CAP10, AND ALGERIAN OFFICIALS.
THIS SUGGESTS THE DISCUSSIONS DID NOT GO WELL?4'
CANO REPORTEDLY WAS RECEIVED COOLLY ANll DID NOT MEET
WITH PRESIDENT BOUMEDIENE AS HE REPORTEDLY HAD EXPECTED?4'
AN ALGERIAN GOVERN;1ENT PRESS SERVICE STATEMENT ON SUNDAY
STRONGLY DENOUNCED SPAIN'S AGREEMENT WITH MOROCCO AND MAURITANIA
AS A CALLOUS MOVE TO DIVIDE SPANISH SAMARA'S MINERAL RICHES
.AND TO DENY THE TERRITORY'S INHABITANTS THE RIGHT TO DECIDE
?:ON THEIR OIIN FUTURE?4'
THE SAHARAN PRO-INDEPENDENCE POLISARIO FRONT ALSO VIGOROUSL Y
?. ATTACKED THE AGREEMENT OVER THE UEEKEND AS A VIOLATION OF UN
DATE:
ORIG:
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RIGHT TO SELF-DETERMINATION- ThE FRONT CALLED ON THE UN TO
SEf~D AN OBSERVER MISSION TO OBSERVE ITS CONTROL OVER THE TER;~ITORY -4'
ALGIEP.S WILD PROBABLY LAUNCH ITS CAMPAIGN THIS WEEK TO
ENLIST SUPPORT IN THE UN TO REV~:RSE THE AGREEMENT?M
ACCORDING TO ALGERIA IS ALREADY THREATENING '
TO REQUEST A SPECIAL ?SECURITY COUNCIL SESSION TO TAKE UP THE
M,4T TER AS SOON AS THE TERMS OF THE NEW AGREEMENT ARE MADE
PUBLIC- THIS IS EXPECTED ONCE THE SPANISH PARLIAMENT COM-
PLE TES THE PROCESS--SCHEDULED TO START ON TUESDAY--OF FORMALLY
DECOLONIZING THE TERRITORY?M
BOTH SIDES WILL LOBBY VIGOROUSLY IN THE UN? MOROCCAN
FOREIGN MINISTER LARAKI ARRIVED IN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY AND,
TOGETHER WITH HIS MAURTANIAN COUNTEP.PART UHO IS EXPECTED TO
?~ ARRIVE SHORTLY ~ WILL ORCHESTRATE EFFORTS TO NEUTRALIZE THE
~ ALGERIAN CAMPAIGN -M
_ ALGERIAN FOREIGN MINISTER BOUTEFLIKA HAS ALREADY BEEN
~:AT THE UN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS, ARGUING THE ALGERIAN CASE FOR A
DATE
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SELF-DETERI1INA'fION REFERENDUM UN~7ER UN AUSP:C~'?:i FOR SPA?dISH
SAHARA ?'~
A SEMI?FFICIAL MOROCCAN DAILY PUBLISHED AN ASSERTION OVER
THE WEEKEND THAT THE SAHP,RAN ASSEMBLY IS THE REPRESENT9,i'IVE
BODY OF THE S.AHARANS? THE ASSERTION SUGGESTS RAE~AT WILL ARGUE
THAT CONSULTATIONS WITH THE ASSEMBLY--WHICH WILL PRESUMABLY
PROVE RESPONSIVE TO MOROCCAN D:RECTTON--ARE ALL THAT IS REQUIRED
TO DETERMItJE THE POPULAR WILL AND THAT A REFERENDUM IS
UNNECESSARY?4'
FEW DETAILS OF' THE SPANISH-MOROCCAN-MAURITANIAN ACCORD
HAVE YET EMERGED?4'
THE MOROCCAN PRESS, CITING INFORMED SOURCES, ASSERTS THAT
THE /'ICCORD CONTAINS A NUMBER OF DRAFT ECONOMIC AGREEMENTS
CONCERNING THE EXPLOITATION OF MINERALS AND FISHING RIGHTS-
'PRESUMABLY, THE ARRANGEMENTS ASSURE SPAIN THE i:ftRETiJRN OF
=ITS INVESTMENT IN THE RICH PHOSPHATE DEPOSITS IN NORTHERN
SPANISH SAHARA?~'
KING HASSAN, MEANWHILE, RETURNED TO RABAT ON SUNDAY
DATE:
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AFTER MORE THD.N A MONTH IN SOUTHERN MOROCCO DIRECTING HIS
CAMPAIGN FOR THE TERRITORY? HE I~ EXPECTED TO ATTEND
CEnEMO~:IES IN RABAT ON TUESDAY CELEBRATING THE 2oTH ANNIVERSARY
OF MOROCCO'S INDEPENDENCE?M
HASSAN MIGHT USE THE OCCASION TO OUTLINE HIS NEXT STEPS
ON 'f HE SAHARAN ~UESTION? {CONFIDENTIAL~M
2. PAKISTAN= THE PAKISTANI GOVERNMENT IS PLEASED BY
GENERAL ZIA UR-RAHMAN'S OVERTHROWIr OF GENERAL MUSHARRAF IN
BANGLADESH?4'
MUSHARRAF'S COUP HADi DISTRUBED THE PAKISTANIS. THEY
THOUGHT MUSHARRAF SHARED THE PRO-INDIAN ORIENTATION OF THE
LATE PRESIDENT MUJIB RATHER THAN THE PRO-PAKISTANI, PRO-CHINESE,
AND PRO-WEST OUTLOOK ATTRIBUTED TO GENERAL ZIA AND TO FOEMER
PRESIDEN'r~ MUSHTAQUE.4'
MANY B~NGALEES AND INDIANS ALSO SEEMED TO REGARD MUSHARRAF
-AS PRO-INDIAN.4~
_ THE PAKISTANIS AA~ AS UNCERTAIN AS EVERYONE ELSE ABOUT
'_ THE COURSE POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS WILL NOW TAKE IN BANGLADESI-i~~
DATE:
ORIG:
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AN AMBASSADOR TO ISLAMABAD-5'
PA::IS'PANI OFFICIALS DO NOT EXPECT INDIA TO INTERVENE
MILITARIi_Y IN BANGLADESH IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE? THE
PAKIS~'ANIS THINK ~T.iJDIA WOULD DO SO ONLY IF THERE WERE AN
OUTBP.EAK OF MUSLIM-HINDU STRIFE IN BANGLADESH APJD A FLIGHT
OF HINDUS TO INDIA?4'
ISLAMABAD IS AS SUSPT.CIOUS AS EVER OF ~W DELHI? THE
PAKISTANIS BELIEVE THAT OVER THE LONGER Rf~I,J THE INDIANS
MIGFi'i" TAkE STEPS TO :,INDUCE A HINDU EXODUS FROM BANGLADESH
IN ORDER TO HA':!E A PRETEXT FOR INTERVENTION-M
PEKING, MEANWHILE, HAS REPORTEDLY TOLD PAKISTANI OFFICIALS
THAT IT VJ_EWS GENERAL ZIA WITH SATISFACTION, ALTbIOUGH IT IS
NOT SURE YET I~IHETHER HE WILL REMAIN IN POWER? THE OFFICIAL
?CHINESE NEWS AGENCY RECENTLY PORTRAYED ZIA'S? TAKEOVER IN A
~F'AVORABLE LtGHT.4'
? SAUDI ARABIA, WHICH ALOiVG WITH CHINA AND PAKISTAN
DATE:
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FFICIAL, HAS INDICATED THAT TF THERE WERE A?
SHT_rr IN DACCA BACK TOWARD AMORE SECULAR. ~~MUJIBIST^ REGIME,
SAUDI ARABIA WOULD NOT SEND AN AMBASSADOR OR PROVIDE
FTNANCIp.L AID. {CONFIDENTIAL} E-2 YMPDET.r1
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NOVEMBER 17, 1975
OCR/ I'LL
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ALMOST T'.!0 UFEKS OF ISOLATIO~i, IS FaCIPJG A flB~Et~ED DRTVE FROiI ,dlTtidT"~
?ict< PARTY A'~iD GOVERNMENT TO STEP ASI~I ~ AT LCAST TEf'!(~9F'ARILY?~
I1~T#nIOR 7IS~ISTEtt KO~1LrD0 ALf10ST C#RTAIt~LY VrtGEI? T~-!IS C+~Ui;SE
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UESPO;dDtD TO CASIp3ET REQ,IESTS FOR CO"~S!lLTATIO~dS? ACCOf:DIvG TO PRESS
i~t:POHTI~dG~ SE~tiATE LEADE-'S HAD EARLIER TOLD R03LED0--GEPdERALLY VI :`,f~:D
AS TN.:. GOVLf?'df1ENT'S CHIEF COOItiDI"dATOC~--Tt~AT TNLY tJOULD EA5c THtIn
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AL.LO!,I Of'~E Of' Tf9EIR OtJN, SEt~ATF_ PE2ESIDE!JT LUF~ER ~ TO ASS!Jtt% TfIF DJ TI ES
. OF T'-I# PRESIDi:~dCY, AS HE DID Dt~glt;iG NER LAST LEAVE- T.~IS :lOULD 8E
OiVLY AFJ ItsTERlft SOLUTIOy, BUT THE ~1ZLITARY i~OUID PROt3Ad3LY RACY IT,
AS THEY DID PREVIOUSLY?5'
PRESIDENTIAL LOYAL:LSTS HAVE OTriER ldORf~IES AS 'DELI ? THEY ARE
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a;-tOWED UP, ArlJ AN ORTfi0A0X PEROirIST CONGR~SSZOrdAL LEaL'~.i: TEK~i`i
CALASfiO'S REMARKS ?'S~t~VElZSIVc?" CALA~RO'S FOLLO~JIl~G SfrrilS TO '~E
Gf~0~,9ING-. THE LONGER THE DISCftEDYTE:D PIZESYDEivT RE:PlA~I~S Itd 4FFICE?~ TtiE
f'lORE ADHEr7.w'!TS THE GOVERNOR IS LIKELY TO AC4.f.iIRE? {CJdFTDEirTTAL}
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25X1A
IJOVEMRER 3,7. 197
25X1A
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1? VIETNA(~: THE DECISYON TO CONVENE THE NORTH-SOUTH CO N-
FERENCE ON REUNIFICATION NOW MEETING IN SAIGON INAICATES THAT
HANOI IS gE~DY TO PP.OCEED SWIFTLY OPd FORMALLY JOINING THE TWO
COUNTRIES. THE PROCESS COULD BE COh1PLETED AS EARLY AS
NEXT SPRING ? 5'
THE CONFERENCE WILL BE A COSMETIC EXERCISE, GIVING THE
APPEAP.ANCE OF MUTUAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN "NGRTHERNERS" AND BOUT H-
~RNERS`T TO WHAT HAS BEEN A POLITICAL REALITY SINCE THE COLLAPSE
~9F THE FORMER GOVERNMENT LAST SPING? VIETNAM HAS ALREADY
EXPERIENCED DE FACTO REUNIFICATION UNDER A SINGLE PARTY
AND MILITARY STRUCTURE, WITH HANOI MAKING ALL THE IMPORTANT
ADMINISTRATIVE, ECONOMIC, AND POLITICAL DECISIONS?4'
HEADIi~G EACH OF THE DELEGATIC:JS ARE SENIOR PARTY
~~OFFICIALS WHO ARE RANKING MEMBERS OF THE NORTH VIETNAMESE
.:POLITBURO- T40UNG CHINH, THE PALITBURO'S SECOND-RANKING
.:MEMBER AND HEAD OF NORTH VIETNAM'S NATIONAL ASSEMBLY, IS
:: REPRESEN'i ING THE NORTH, WHILE PHAM HUNG, THE FOURTH-RANKING
DATE:
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MEMBER ON THE POLITBURO AND THE PARTY'S CHIEF TN THE SOUTH
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ACCORDING TO THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT, THE CONFERENCE
WILL FORMULATE PLANS FOR A NEW NATIONAL ASSEMBLY AND NEW
^COMMON" STATE ORGANS? THE FORMULATION SUGGESTS THAT
HANOI INTENDS TO USE THE NORTH VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT
STRUCTURE AS A MODEL AND EXPAND ESTABLISHED LEGISLATIVE
AND EXECUTIVE ORGANIZATIONS TO INCLUDE SOUTHERNERS? SOUTHERNERS
WILL UNDOIJBTEDLY ALSO BE APPOINTED TO POSITIONS IN ExECUTTVE
MINISTRIES AND COMMISSIONS? THE ELECTIONS PROPOSED ARE FOR
A NEW COUNTRYWIDE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY- THESE ELECTIONS ARE
INTENDED TO SERVE AS A NATIOWWIDE PLFBISCITE?~ REFLECTING
THE SO-CALLED ^NATIONAL WILL^ OF THE PEOPLE FOR A REUNIFIED
STATE? IN REALITY, THE ASSEMBLY IN THE NORTH HAS NO POWER
SAND MERELY RUBBER STAMPS THE BIDDING OF THE POLITBURO AND
.:THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE? THE IMPRESSION LEFT BY THE ANNOUNCE-
=.MENT IS THAT THE ELECTIONS WILL BE MELD SOON?4'
:. SINCE THE COMMUNIST VICTORY LAST APRIL, LEADERS TN
DATE:
ORIG:
l1NIT:
EXT:
Approved For Release 2001/08/21 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010079-3
 Approved For Release 2001/08/21 :CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010079-3
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BOTH ZONES HAVE: MADE IT CLEAR THAT 'fHE ULTIMATE GOAL IS TO
ESTABLISH A REUNIFIED VIETNAM. THERE HAVE BEEN MIXED SIGNS,
HOWEVER, ON HOW RAPIDLY THIS PROCESS WOIILD OCCUR AND WHAT
FORM IT WOULD TAKE? ONE REASON FOR THE CONTUSION WAS THE
RAPIDITY OF THE COMMUNIST MILITARY VICTORY, WHICH CAUGHT
THE LEADERSHIP POLITICALLY OFF GUARD? AT THE TIME OF
SAIGON'S COLLAPSE, HANOI ALMOST CERTAINLY HAD NO TIMETABLE
FOR REUNIFICATTON?M
MOST OF THE EARLY INDICATIONS FOLLOWING SAIGON'S FALL
POINTED TO A GRADUAL PROCESS OF REUNIFICATION, WHICH MAPJY
SOURCES INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF VIETNAM MAINTAINED MIGHT
TAKE AT LEAST SEVE~