WESTERN HEMISPHERE BRIEF 175-75.4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010077-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 23, 2001
• Sequence Number: 77
• Publication Date: November 12, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

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Secret
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SECRET !iOFORU
WCSTi.RNa 'lE~1I5?1iER .. 9RI-'-F 175--75-Y
1. ARG NTINA: T'U IPSPEACH(1 T MOTION INTRODUCED ).AT- LAST
UE:EK AGAI;:ST PRESID#VT MARIA E.STELA PERO'1 IS GAX'aINC, S;'-?O T I;a Tdi~
ARGSEPNNTINE CO:.GRCiS. THE MOTIOt# CHARGE', Gf:O`:S Ir1CJflPF.TEUCE AS JELL
AS LARGO-SCALE t1ISUSE OF PUs1LIC FIJ!EDS. Y
AT LEAST THREE OPPsISITIO POLITICAL CROUPS RAVE LI!,11ED UP PE-
HIND THE t1OTIOW, THE LARGEST OPPOSITION PARTY, THE RADICAL CIVIC
UUIO1, SEEMS TO MOVlNC TOtJA1?D SUPPORT OF IMPEACMME N T . THE PARTIES
AL.LI"D WITH TIPE PERONISTS IN TIE GOVERNING COALITION ARE SAx.1 TOF
FAVOR IMPEACHMENT It! FACT, IF NOT OFFICIALLY.Y
AN ACTION LAST BY THE PEPOi IST PARTY MAY PROVOKE DEFECTION'S
FROM ITS CONGRESSIONAL RANKS T'iAT WOULD ENSURE THE PA SAGE OF THE
MOTYO,J. THE PARTY FORMALLY EXPELLED GJE'40S AIRES GOVERNOR VICTOcIO
CALAI?RO, A PROMINENT TRADE U! IO 4 L[ADER AND SPOKESMAR FOR PERONISTS
UHO OPPOSE PERGt4 CONTINUTNG IN OFFICE. T14E JS EIISASSY REPORTS THAT
-1IS OUSTER COULD PROVIDE 20 OR SO PERONIST VOTES THAT THE MOTION DEEDS
TO BE PASSED?Y
PEONS RECENT ACTIVITY UUAS LED TO SPECULATION T'~$AT SNIEIS
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3
SECRET MOFORN
PEROt'j'S RECC T ACTIVITY HAS LED TO SPECULAT6ON THAT SHE IS
DELIBERATELY Th ING TO PROVOKE A M'.LITARY COUP AND THUS ACHIEVE
MARTYRDOM. SHE REMAINS ISOLATED IN HER HOSPITAL ROOM, TAKING COUNSEL
ONLY FROM A SMALL CLIAUE.Y
SHE IS IGNORING REQUESTS FROM CABINET MEMDERS TO MEET WITH THEM
AND DISCUSS GOVERNMENT BUSINESS. MILITARY LEADERS, IHO COULD AT ANY
TIME REMOVE THE PRESIDENT% HESITATE TO DO SO FOR FEAR OF STIRRING
UP POPULAR OPPOSITION TO THE MILITARY AS OCCURRED 'TWO DECADES AGO
WHEN MILITARY LEADERS MOVED AGAINST JUAN PER*N-Y
MILITARY SPOKESMEN REPORTEDLY HAVE TOLD I4FLUENTIAL CIVILIANS
THAT THEY SHOULD NOT EXPECT TH ' ARMED FORCES TO STEP IN AND RROVIDE
A SOLUTION TO (HE LEADERSHIP PROBLEM. THE SPOKESMEN ADD THAT THE
MILITARY WILL TAKE OVER ONLY IF THE GOVER'IMCNT COMPLETELY COLLAPSES
BUT THAT IF `."HEY DO TAKE OVER THEY WILL NOT SOON RETURN POSER TO
CIVILIANS. {CONFIDEMTIAL}M
2- //ECUADOR: THE ARREST Of TWO PROMINENT ECUAWEAN POLITICIANS
FOR "SUUVERSIVE" ACTIVITIES AND A TGVERNMENT DENIAL OF TROUBLE IN
SOUTHERN EL ORO PROVINCE SUGGEST THAT PRESIDENT RODRIGLIEZI POSITION
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IS WEAK-91Y
//HE ;IAs HAD LITTLC: SUCCESS REUNIFYING THE Ai'f1ED FORCE
%c.LOUING THt: COUP ATTEMPT IY DISSIDENT ARMY OFFICERS ON S#PTE11GLt? 1/
LCONOMIC PRO3LEMS AND A DAY-LONG NATIQNWIDE GENERAL STRIKE PLANNED
FOf1 twOVEti3ER 13 UNDERLINE THE SHAKY SITUATIO.-N.//Y
//RODRIaUCZ PRO)Ai1LY COJLD HAVE PREVENTED THE PLANNED STRIKE.
SEVERAL SOu RCES NAVE SUGGESTED, NOUEVER, THAT THE PRESIDENT IS
DISPIRITED, TIRED. APID NOT IN FULL CGiif1AND OF THE SITUATION- SEVEF AL
f1ILITANf OFFICERS ARE RUMORED AS POSSI9LE REPLACEMENTS rOI% THE PRESI-
AC NT, 3JT INOUE IS PELIEVED TO HAVE ENOUGH ;UPPOi1T 70 STAGE A. TAKE-OVER
AT T)IIS TIME WY
//SHOULD THE DOVER? 1ENT QE FORCED TO DEAL HARSHLY iiITl1 THE
STRIKERS ON :JOVEt1UER 13, PRESIDENT RODRIGUEZ' POSITION COULD UE UNDER-
hXNED SUFFICIENTLY FOR HIM TO HE OUSTED. {SECRET NOFOONEZIrY
3. //CHILE. THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT TM CHILE HAS CHOSEN TO
AVOID A POSSIBLE DIPLO:1ATIC Q ICIDE'NT WITH THE US AT THIS TIME BY
ALLOWTioG THREE AMERICAN NUNS TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY AFTER THEY HAD
SECRETLY AIDED WOUNDED TERRORISTS.//M
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//THE 60VCiV4HENT ALSO HAS REPORTEDLY AGREED TO GRANT SAFE
CONDUCT TO X11'3 AMERICAN PRIEST SIMILARLY INVULVCP.//V
//THE fr.".?RORISTS, INCLJDDIG THE TWO TOP LEA:)ERS OF THE fOVEtIEUUT
OFTNHE R0I,,LUTIOrdARY LEFT, HAVE SOUGHT ASYLUM IN TO i:M0A ,S.LS?//V
//TiU.. CIiU CES FOR ADDITIONAL DIPLOMATIC AND POLITICAL COM-
PLICATIONS AR': HIGH, SIRICE A BRITISH MISSIONARY DOCTOR AND A US-
BORN CtiILEAU PRIEST ARE IN CUSTODY IN CHILE FOR AIDING T;iE TERRORISTS;
OTHER tlER6ERS OF THE CLERGY ARE Ei,ING SOUGHT BY SECURITY FORCES -//Y
//CHILE'S ATTITUDE ON THE AMERICAN NUNS PROBABLY WAS DESIGNED
10 PART TO ENCOURAGE A EIS ABSTENTION ON A U4 RESOLUT;LON CO3HEMNING
CHILE FOR ADMAN RIGHTS A8USES.//M
//PINOCHET CLEARLY WOULD LIKE TO AVOID FORCING AN OPEN SPLIT
7i!TH THE CATHOLIC 'HURCH. CONTINUED CHILEAN OR FOREIGN CLERICAL
INVOLVEMENT WITH TERRORISTS, EVEN Otd HUMANITARIAN GROUNDS, NAY JELL
PROVOKE A STERNER GOVERNMENT RESPONSE IN THE FUTURE. {S?CRET MOFORW}d/Y
E-2 ICIPDET? rd
DOA D D o----------
25X1A
NOVEMBER 12, 197S
OCI/NHD
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EAST ASIA BRIEF 175-75-Y
CHINA: PEKING HAS LAUNCHED A CAMPAIGN TO MECHANIZE AGRICULTURE
THAT IT HOPES WILL BE THE KEY TO ITS LONGER TERM GOR OF MODERNIZING
INDUSTRY, DEFENSE, SCIENCE, AND TECHNOLOGY BY THE END OF THE
CENTURY . Y
THE SUCCESS OF THE CAMPAIGN, WHICH HAS A TARGET DATE OF 1980,
WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON ACHIEVING AND MAINTAINING A GREATER DEGREE
OF POLITICAL SIAO.T..LITY THAN CHINA HAS 'THUS FAR MANAGED. STATEMENTS
BY NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL LEADERS INDICATE THEY RECOGNIZE THE
LINK BETWEEN ECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENT AND POLITICAL STADILTTY. Y
AT A NATIONAL AGRICULTUPAL CONFERENCE HELD LAST MOI.ITH,
THE PARTY LEADER IN CHARGE OF AGR?ICULTUFE SAID THAT RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE CURRENT CAMPAIGN RESTS WITH LOCAL PARTY OFFICIALS AND
WARNED THAT POLITICAL FACTIONALISH MUS1' NOT IMPEDE AGRICULTURAL
DEVELOPMENT. POLITICAL RIVALRIES STEMMING FROM THE CULTI!I'AL.
REVOLUTION OF THE MID-19605 CONTINUE AT ALL LEVELS AND HAVL OFTEN
A SLOWED LOCAL IMPLEI1ENTATION OF NATIONAL POLICY.Y
THE PARTY LEADER SUGGESTED THAT LOCAL OFFICIALS WHO PERSIST
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IN FACTIONALISM BE TRANSFERRED OUT OF THE LOCALE PROMPTLY AND THAT
ANNUAL "RECTIFICATION" CAMPAIGNS BE CONDUCTED BY LOCAL PARTY
ORGANIZATIONS TO PREVENT POLITICAL ERRORS.'
IN THEIR SPEECHES ON THE AGRICULTURAL CAMPAIGN, PROVINCIAL
LEADERS ALSO HAVE CALLED FOR UNITY AND STABILITY AND HAVE CONDEMNED
POLITICAL FACTIONALISM. ONE URGED EVERYONE TO WORK TOGEThiR TO
MODERNIZE AGRICULTURE REGARDLESS OF-WHICH FACTION THEY BELONG TO.Y
POLITBURO MEMBER WEI KUO-CHING, NEWLY TRANSFERRED TO KWANGTUNG
PROVINCE AS PARTY BOSS, USED HIS MAIDEN ADDRESS TO WARN THE
TRADITIONALLY INDEPENDENT-MINDED PEOPLE OF THAT PROVINCE AGAINST
ARBITRARILY CHANGING POLICIES ESTABLISHED B1 PEKING OR BY THE
PROVINCIAL LEADE1
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THIS WEEK FROM HIGH-LEVEL OFFICIALS ARE--AS IN THE
PAST--CAUTIOUSLY SKIRTING THE ISSUE OF DIRECT SOVIET
INVOLVEMENT WITH THE PRO-STALINISTS.Y
//A FOREIGN MINISTRY OFFICIAL, HOWEVER, SAID THAT BREZHNEV'S
DENIALS OF SOVIET SUPPORT FOR THE STALINISTS--GIVEN PERSONALLY TO
TITO IN HELSINKI LA 7 AUGUST--WERE, AT BEST, ONLY PARTIALLY CREDIBLE
THE OFFICIAL THEN QUALIFIED HIS REMARKS BY SAYING THAT THE US SHOULD
NOT MAKE TOO MUCH OF THE SOVIET CONNECTION, IMPLYING THAT IF
WASHINGTON DID, BELGRADE MIGHT BE FORCED, AS A COUNTERWEIGHT,
TO CONDEMN APTI-TITOIST EMIGRE ACTIVITIES IN THE US.//Y
DESPITE THE EFFORT TO KEEP THE LID ON SPECULATION
ABOUT SOVIET MOTIVES, SOME INFLUENTIAL FORCES AP-
PARENTLY WOULD HAVE IT cTHERWISE. THE MILITARY
JOURNAL NARODNA ARMILIAA LAS IT WEEK, FOR EXAMPLE,
DREDGED UP YUGOSLAVIA'S PAST REACTION TO THREATS
LIKE THE CYPRUS CRISIS AND THE L9h8 WARSAW PACT IN-
VASION OF CZECHOSLOVAKIA. THE REVIVAL OF THE IN-
VASION ISSUE IS OUT OF STEP WITH THE POLICY OF RE-
DATE:
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STRAINT AND MIGHT BE THE MILITARY'S WAY OF SHARPENING
THE ANTI-SOVIET EDGE OF THE CAMPAIGN. {CONFIDENTIALLY
3. USSR-UGANDA: MOSCOW'S DECISION TO SEVER RELATIONS WITH
KAMPALA "TEIIPORANILY" IS AN OBVIOUS SOVIET EFFORT TO BEAT UGANDAN
PRESIDENT AMIN TO THE DIPLOMATIC PUNCHY
THE MERCURIAL AMIN HAD THREATENED TO BREAK RELATIONS
WITH THE USSR UNLESS A "HIGH-POUERED EMISSARY" FROM GENERAL
SECRETARY BREZHNEV ARRIVED IN KAMPALA BY TUESDAY WITH A
SATISFACTORY EXPLANATION FOR THE PRESSURE THE SOVIETS HAVE
PUT ON UGANDA TO SUPPORT THE POPULAR MOVEMENT IN ANGOLA. A('iIN
HAD ALSO DEMANDED THE WITHDRAWAL OF MOSCOII' S AMBASSADOR--1AHO('1
HE LAOELED A CRIMINAL--FROM KAMPALA.Y
THE SOVIETS CLEARLY WERE NOT ABOUT TO PLAY A(1IN' S GAIIE 1
DESPITE THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE BEEN TRYING TO BUILD INFLUENCE
IN UGANDA SINCE RESLIMINC AID IN LATE 197:7.
MOSCOW'S REFERENCE TO THE TEMPORARY NATURE OF THE BREAK
SUGGESTS ITS CHAGRIN OVER' THE TURN OF EVENTS AND ITS INTEREST
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{CONFIDENTIAL'rY
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RELATIONS IN THE FUTURE.
DATE: NOVEMBER 12, 1975
GRIG:
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t1EA BRIEF 175-75.4'
1. ANGOLA: THE SOVIET-BACKED POPULAR MOVEMENT FOR THE LIBERATION
OF ANGOLA TUESDAY NAMED ITS LEADER, AGOSTINHO NETO, PRESIDENT OF
ANGOLA. Y
THE NETO GOVERNMENT QUICKLY RECEIVED RECOGNITION FROM THE
USSR, ROMANIA, CUfA, AND SEVERAL AFRICAN STATES WITH LONG TIES
TO THE POPULAR MOVEMENT. A NUMBER OF CAST EUROPEAN COUNTr;IES HAVE
EXPRESSED "READINESS" TO ESTABLISH DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH THE
NEW "PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF ANGOLA."Y
THE.POPLULAR f1OVEIIENT' S RIVALS--THE NATIONAL FRONT FOI, THE
LIBERATION OF ANGOLA AND THE NATIONAL UNION FOR THE TOTtL INDEPENDENCE
OF ANGOLA--MARKED INDEPENDENCE AND THE INAUGLIRA T I%",N OF THEIR JOINT
PROVISIONAL GOVERNMENT IN CEREMOMIE S AT NOVA LISDOA, THE NATIONAL
UNION' S HEADQUARTERS, AND AT AMBRIZ, THE NATIONAL FRONT'S
HEADQUARTERS. THE SEAT OF THE PROVISIONAL GOVERNN:f;i_NT IIILL LE AT NOVA
LIS3OA, WHICH HAS TEEN RENAMED HUAM3O.Y
DESPITE THE INDEPENDENCE CEREIIONIES, THE TWO RIVAL. QUICKLY RESUMED 11ILITARY ACTIVITES. THE POPULAR MOVEMENT DI PATCH:D
DATE:
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AN ARMOR-REINFORCED TROOP COLUMN SOUTHWARD TO MEET AN ADVANCING
NATIONAL FRONT - NATIONAL UNION FORCE ADVANCING ON LUANDA. THE
FORCE IS STILL APPROXIMATELY 350 MILES FROM THE CAPITAL.Y
AT QUIFANGANDO THE NATIONAL FRONT, AFTER ALMOST THREE WEEKS,
HAS STILL NOT BEEN ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH POPULAR MOVEMENT DEFENSE.S.Y
IN CABINDA, FRAGMENTARY INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY
FIGHTING IS TAKING PLACE BETWEEN THE POPULAR MOVEMENT AND CABINDAN
LIBERATION FORCES. THE INABILITY OF THE CABINDAN LIBERATION FORCES
TO SECURE A QUICK VICTORY IN WHAT WAS SUPPOSED TO HAVE BEEN A SURPRISE
ATTACK SUGGESTS THAT THE POPULAR MOVEMENT MAY WELL BE HOLDING THE
UPPER HAND.Y
THE NATIONAL FRONT AND THE NATIONAL UNION STILL HOPE THEY CAN
WIN ENOUGH TERRITORY TO FORCE THE MOVEMENT TO COMPROMISE. THE POPULAR
MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TO BE LESS INCLINED TO CONSIDER A POLITICAL
ACCOMMODATION WITH ITS RIVALS, NOW THAT IT HAS CUBAN AND SOVIET
RECOGNITION. {CONFIDENTIAL}Y
2. SPANISH SAHARA: A HIGH-LEVEL MOROCCAN DELEGATION LED BY
PRIME (MINISTER OSMAN WENT TO MADRID TUESDAY TO NEGOTIATE THE DETAILS
DATE:
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OF A GENERAL UNDERSTAML`ING ON Jf rII'J. II .ir%l 1*1?. I
THE INCLUSION ON THE DELEGATION OF THE DIRECTOR OF MOROCCO'S
NATIONAL PHOSPHATE COMPANY SUGGESTS THAT PART OF THE TALKS WILL DEAL
WITH EITHER JOINT EXPLOITATION OF OR COMPENSTATION FOR THE RICH
PHOSPHATE DEPOSITS IN NORTHERN SPANISH SAHARA.Y
NEITHER RABAT NOR MADRID HAS COMMENTED ON THE TALKS NOW UNDER
WAY. PRIME MINISTER OSMAN DECLINED TO MAKE A STATEMENT ON HIS
ARRIVAL AT THE MADRID AIRPORT.Y.
PRESS REPONTS FROM MADRID SUGGEST THAT SPANISH OFFICIALS ARE
LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT ACHIEVING A FINAL. AGREEf1ENT THAN ARE THE
MOROCCANS. SPAIN STILT. WANTS THE LIN TO PLAY A ROLE IN RESOLVING
THE SPANISH SAHARA DISPUTE ', MOROCCO WANTS TO NEGOTIATE A SETTLE11EN'l'
FIRST AND THEN SEEK THE UN' S BLESSING. {CONFIDEN T IAI..J E-2 IMf'l1E'f ? rl
DATE: NOVEMBER 12, 1975
or.
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