EUROPEAN BRIEF 165-75. 4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010067-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 22, 2001
• Sequence Number: 67
• Publication Date: October 24, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

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T00608R000300010067-6 _ ___
I] INOP.M
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EUROPEAN BRIEF 165-75.'~
],. SPAIN: GENERdL FRANC^ HAS TAKEN A SERIOUS TURN FOR THE WORSE,
AND AN EARLY TRANSFER OF POWER TO PRINCE JUAN CARLOS NOW SEEP. ~IKELY.M
A MEDICAL BULLETIN SIGNED BY FRANCO`S -DO~TCRS WAS ISSUED
ON THURSDAY, ANNOUNCING THAT FRANCO IS SHOWING AD DITTONAL SIGNS OF
.s
HEART FAILURE. PREVIO!IS, MORE OPTIMISTIC 6UL! ETI~!S HAD NOT BEEN
SIGNED BY DOCTORS. WE BELIEVE FRANCO MAY HAVE DEVELOPED CONGESTIVE
HEART FAILURE-A SERIOUS COhiPLICATTON OF HIS RECc:NT HEART ATTACKS.'I'
IN THE FACE OF THIS DEVELOPMENT, AL.L MAJOR P OLITTCAL FORCES,
INC! UDING THE MILITARY, REPORTEDLY HAVE REACHtD A COtJSENSUS THAT
FRANCO SHOULD STEP DOWN IMMEDl'ATELY.4'
IF FRANCO REt1AINS UNABLE OP, REFUSES TO SIGN THE DECREES
RENOUNCING HIS POSITION AND TRANSFERRING POLIEP, TO THE PRINCE, HIS
TEAt1 OF DOCTORS MAY ISSUE A CERTIFICATE OF INCAPACITY. THIS WOULD
PERM:iT SPANISH OFFICIALS TO, INITIATE THE PROCEEDINGS PROVIP.ED IN
TI-;E CO~JSTITUTION. ALTERNATIVELY, 'fHE CABINET, AT ITS SCHEDULED
MEETING ON FRIDAY COULD FORMALLY P,ECOGNI?E HIS INCAPACITATIAN. ITS
BINDING WOIJLD THEPJ HAVE TO 3E APPROVED BY TWO 'fHIFDS OF BOTH THE
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0 RBTURNTU PER
ADVISORY COUNCIL OF THE REALM AND THE LEGIS;.ATUP.E.'{
IF FP.ANCO DIES :~t: SIGPIS THE DOCUMEidT TRANSFERRINt~ PG:JER TO
JUAN CARLOS, THE THREE-MAN COUNCIL OF THE REGENCY WILL IMMcDIATELY
ASSUME THE HEADSHIP OF STATE. THE ~~RLTAMf=NT WOULD BE CONVOKED WITHIN
24 HOUP.S OR SO AND It;FOFMED i~~= T~.E ~~INCE`S :+FSIGNATION. WITHTN
.-
ABO~''t 48 HOURS AFTER Tt-~AT~ Nvs~'It~LY AS EARLY AS OCTOBER 27, JUAN
CARf.JS WOULD TAKE THE OATH AS KING 01~ SPAIN BEFORE A JOINT SESSION
OF THE ?ARLIAt1~:NT AND THc. COl"tVCTL OF THE REALM.4'
IPJTCNSIVE: ;1ANEUVERINE FOR 1'HE POST-FRANCO PERIOD HAS ALREADY
BEGU(d. ON THURSDAY SPANISH AMBASSADOR 'f0 LONDON FRA.GA IRIBARNE--LONG
TOU'!'"tD AS A CANDIDATe. FOP. THE PRIt1E MINISTEP.SHIP 4FTER JU~,,iJ CARLOS
'TAKES OVER--RETURNED HASTILY TO ADP.IDrM 25X1X
25X1X ACCORDItJG FRAGA HAS STRUCK A DEAL WITH
7HE POWERFUL MINISTER SECP.ETAP.Y OF THE tJA i IONAL t10VEMENT, SOLIS
RUIZ. FRAGA REPOP.TEDLY HAS PROMISED TO TAKE PART IPJ A
GOVERNt1ENT-SUPPC!'TED POLITICAL ASSOCIATION IN RETURN FOR THE
GOVERNt1ENT'S ADOPTION OF HIS PROGRAM, A MAJOR POIiJT OF WHICH IS
FREE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. {CONFIDENTIAL}
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aa~ewsiNO Ap~R oved For Release 2001/08/21a:aCIA~RDP86T00608R000300010067~6a crriccR
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2~ PORTIIGAL: THOUSANDS OF RADICAL LCFTISTS MARCHED THROUGH
LISBON THURSDAY NIGHT IN A COMt?1UNIST-SPONSORED DEMONSTRATION, BUT
THERE WERE NO VIOLENT OR UhJTOL1ARD INCIDENTS. 4~
THE DEt10NSTP,ATORS CALLED FOR All END TO THE CU?RENT GOVERNMENT
AND ThE RETURhJ TO POWr.R OF GEPJERAL VAS CO GONCALVES, THE
.~
PRO-COMt1UNIS'I' DORMER PP,Et1IER WHO WAS FORCED TO RESIGN SEVERAL
WEEKS AGO.M
DESPOT[: OPEN TALK OF A POSSIBLE COUP, THE GOVERNMENT DTD NOT
ATTEt?iPT TO STOP THE DEMONSTRATION. IT EVTDEN"I'LY IS STILL PLAY1!VG
FOR TIME IN ITS STRUGGLE iC SI.i~RVIVE.41
Ihl ALLYING THEMSELVES WI'+'I-i THE FAR LEFT, IT TS CLEARLY THE
COh1MUPJISTS' PP,ESEN'P OSJE.CTIVE TO ERING DOWN THE GOVERNMENT BY
CREATI~JG SHEEP. CHAOS AND BY SPLITTING 'ihE SOCIALISTS /'AND POPULAR
DEMOCFATS, WHO ARE ITS PRINCIPAL BULWARKS. THUS FAR, AT LEAST, THE
TWO Pr;~'TIES ARE STICKING TOGETHER. THt SOCIALISTS HAVE ROL'~DLY
DENOUPJCED `~ HE :.OMMUNISTS AND H; VE SAID THAT THEY T00 WOULD LEAVE
ThE GOVERNMENT SF THE POPULAR DEt10CRATS WERE FORCED OUT-5'
THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAY BE DECISIVE FOR AZEVEDO. THE ~OVERNt`IENT'S
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OFFER OF AMNESTY EXPIRES f~N SATURDAY, BUT NO ARMED CIVILIAN GROUPS
HAVE TURNED TN A?lY WEAPONS. ONE OF THE MOST MILITANT AND MOST
HEAVILY ARMED E~','fP,EMt-LEFT GROUPS, THE RE.VOLL'TIONARY PARTY OF THE
PRGLETARIAT-F'EI'~!.~1T;CONARY BRIGADES, ANNOUNCED THAT IT'wWILL GO
UNDERG(~OUPJD Tr:~ AVO.~D A GOVERNMENT CRACKi~OWN. GENERAL OTELO CARVALN'0,
LEADER C?F TyE TNTERNA.L SECURITY FO~CS, SAID THAT THIS DECISION
MYGHT i1EdN TWAT THE GROUP IS PLA"JNING A COUP. {CONFIDENTIAL} 4'
3. RC~~r11VIA: AS BUCHAREST'S CONCERN OVER POPULAR DISCONTENT
WITH FOOD SHORTAGES CONTINUES TO MOUNT, PRESIDENT
CtAUSESCU IS LAYING ThE BLAME ON BUREAUCRATIC SHORT- +
COi1IfdGS AP;D INEFFI~IENCY.4'
IiJ A SPEECH TO PARTY AND GOVERN~1EPJT OFFICIALS
7N OCTOBEf2 L7, CEA~ISESCU WASTED NO TIME IN FINDING
SCAPEr;~A T ~. FCR THE CIJRRENT PROBLL'M. BUCHAP,EST CITY
OFFICIALS WERE ACCUSED OF .A "LACK OF CONTROL AND
GUIDA~!CE" THAT LED TO MISALLOCA"ION OF FOOD STOCKS
AND TO ^A CERTAIN PJEGATIVE PSYCHOSIS I T1.1E RANKS OF
THE POPULACE.^ THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE WAS CRI-
DATE
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TICIZED FOR FAILING TO FULFILL PLANNEI~ PRODUCTION AND
THE MINISTRY OF LIGHT INDUSTRY FOR REDUCING INVEST-
.
MENTS WHERE SHORTFALLS EXIST. CEAUSESCU'S REMARKS
PROBABLY FORF_SHADOW A NUMBER OF PERSONNEL CHANGES AT
THc PARTY PLENUM GN ECANOMICS PJEXT MONTH.M
t1
CEAUSESCU HAD ANNOUNCED SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES IN
THE AVAILABILITY OF FOODSTUFFS AND CONSUMER GOODS
ONLY THREE DAYS EARLIER. HE HAS NOT, HOl1EVER, OF-
FERED ANY SIGNIFICANT POLICY CHANGES THAT COULD REM-
EDY THE SITUATION OVER THE LONGEP.-TERM. IN FACT,
THERE NAS BEEN NO INDICATION OF ANY SLACKENING OF
CEAUSESCU'S DETERMIPJATTON TO PROCEED WITH RAPID IN-
DUSTP.IALiZATTON. '~
SERIOUS SHORTAGES HAVE EXISTED IN ROPIANIA SINCE
THE JULY FLOODS, BUT THE PROBLEM APPARENTLY BECAf1E
CRITICAL ONLY IN EARLY OCTOBER, WHEN HOARDING AND
DISGRUNTLE~1ENT BEGAN TO SPREAD. CEAUSESCU'S RARE
' PUBLIC ATTENTION TO THE PROBLE[1 CLEARLY SUGGESTS THAT
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POPULAR DISCONTENT IS REAL, ANb DIPLOf1ATIC SOURCES
IN BUCHAREST ARE NOW GIVIfJG MORE WEIGHT TO CONSUMER
PP.JBLEMS AS A FACTOR IN CEAUSESCU'S CANCELLATION OF
0 mogr ~~S~eM ktY:
0 NO INOR)t
0 RlTURN TO PER
HIS VISIT TO YUGOSLAVIA LAST WEEK. {CONFIDENTIAL}M
4. ROMANIA-CHINA: AN UNPRECEDENTED NUMBER OF HIGH-LEVEL ROMANIAN
DELEGAT'~OfJS HAS VISITED PEKING SINCE EI;RLY SEPTEMBER
IN A RENt_WED SHOW OF BUCHAREST'S WILLINGNESS TO DEFY
TJiE SOVIETS.4'
THE EXCHANGES SHARPLY EXCEED THOSE BETWEEN BUCHA-
REST AND MOSCOW DURING THE
SAME PERIOD. A ROMANIAN
2ECENTLY SAID THAT
GOOD RELATIONS WITH PEKING ARE BY FAR ROMANIA'S
NUMBER-ONE PROBLEM WITH THE KREMLIfS.M
THE VISITS TOOK PLACE DURING A PEP.IOD WHEN MOS-
COW IS INTENSIFYING ITS EFFORTS TO ACHIEVE GREATER
IDEOLOGICAL CONFORf1ITY AMONG ITS WARSAW PACT ALLIES,
PUSHING FOR CLOSER ECONOMIC INTEGRATION WITHIN CEMA,
AND TRYIPJG HARD TO CONVENE A EUROPEAN CONFEP.ENCE 4F
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. COMMUNIST AND WORKERS PARTIES.M
THE WILY ROMANIANS MAY LOOK ON THE UPSURGE IN
D INO{x DISSEM BY:
D No INOex
D nerunN To PER
CONTACTS WITH THE CHINESE AS A WAY OF CREATING BAR-
GAINING C~-IIPS. THEY COULD NOW CUT BACK ON THEIR PE-
KING TRIPS WITHOUT OFFENDING THE CHINESE, AND AT THE
SAME TIh?E CONVINCE THE SOVIETS THEY ARt BEING RE:-
SPONSIVE.4'
MEAPJTIME, PRESS COVERAGE OF THE i/ISITS HAS E11-
PHASIZED THE SIMILARI TY OF VIEWS EiETWEEN THE ROMANIAN
AND CHINESE PARTItS. THE CHINESE RECITATIONS OF THE
COMf10PJ "STRUGGLE AGAINST TMPER:tALISt1, COLONIALISM
AND HEGEMONISM" AMOUNTS TO AN OBLIQUE SLAP AT SOVIET
EFFJRTS TO DOMINATE INTERNATIONAI. COMMI.INISM. {CON-
FIDENTIAL} ~ E-~, IMFDET
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],? SPANISH SAHARA KING HASSAN, IN A BP.IEF RADIOBROADCAST ON
THURSDAY DTRECTE:D AT THE TNHABITAN'fS OF SPANISH SAHARA, INDICATED
THAT HE IS GOING AHEAD WITH HIS PLANNED MARCH INTO THE TERRITORY?M
IN HIS ADDRESS, HASSAN REVIEWED MOROCCO'S CLAIM TO
SOVEREIGNTY OVER THE SAHARA. HE APPEALED TO THE INHABITANTS TO
RENEW THtIP. P,ELIGTOU~ AND POLITICAL ^LLEGIANC~ TO HI!1 AND NOT
TO RFSTST THE MARCH BY FORCE,4'
HIS REMARKS WERE CLEARLY DIRECTED AT M~'MSERS OF THE
SPANISH-BACKED SAHAP.AN NATIONAL U~!I0~! PARTY AND THE ALGE!?yAiV~-SUPPORTED
POLISARIO FRONT. THE TWO GROUPS, WHICH FAVOR INDEPENDENCE FQR THE
TERRITORY?I HAVE ANNOUNCED PLANS 'I'0 CONFRONT THE UNARMED MARCHERS AT
THE BORDER ? 4'
HASSAN DID NOT ANNOUNCE A DATE FOR THE MARCH- THE FIRST
COP:TINGENT MAY CROSS THE BORDER EARLY NeXT WEEK?Y
MOROCCAN CONTACTS WITH, SPAIN ARE ACCELERATING. FOREIGN MINISTER
LARAKI ARRIVES TN MADRID ON FRIDAY TO CONTINilE TALKS STAP.TED IN RABAT
? EARLIER THIS WEEK BY A SPANISH OFFICIAL ? PRESS REP0I~TS Ft:OM RABAT
DATE:
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CLAIM THE TWO COUNTRIES HAVE REACHED A TENTATIVE UNDERSTANDING FOR
A PARTITION 0? SPANISH SAHARA BETWEEN MORC:.CO AND MAURITANIA,
AND THAT OfJLY A SYMBOLIC CONTTNGENT~' OF MARCHERS WILL GO ALL THE WAY
TO EL AAIUN, THE CAPITAL OF SPANISH SAHARA?4'
MEANWHILE, MAURITANIA, WHICH HOPES TO DIVIDE SPANISH SAHARA
.~
WITH MOROCCO, HAS PUBLICLY SUPPORTED RABAT?S MARCH, BUT ONLY IN
~f7INCIPLE? ON OCTOBER 20, PRESIDENT OULD DADDAH SAID MAURITANIA
OPPOSES USING FORCE TO SETTLE THE DISPUTE? HE IS ANXIOUS TO AVOID
A MILITARY CONFRONTATION AND IS COPJCERNED THAT HASSAN'S MARCH
WILL CREATE A VOLATILE SITUATION? {COPIFTDENTIAL}M
2? LEBANON IiJTE~JS~ MORTAR, ROCKET, AND SMALL ARMS FXRE
BEGAN BEFOP.E DAWN?ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF BEIRUT? TWO PALEST:CiJ
LIBERATION ORGANIZATION MILITARY OF"FICEKS WERE KILLED IN CHP.ISTIAN
AREAS IN AND NEAR BEIRUT ON?WEDNESDAY NIGHT? THE PALESTINIANS WERE
NOT INVOLVED IN THE FTGHTINS ON THURSDAY, BUT MORE FEDAYEEN WERE
IN EVIDENCE MANNING BARRICADES? LESS RADICAL PALESTINIAN LEADERS
WILL COME I~NDER PRESSURE TO RETALIATE ? 4'
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BEIRUT RADIO ANNOUNCED AT MIDDAY THAT ALL ROADS IN THE CITY
iJERE UNSAFE AND THAT, FOR THE FIRST 1'I ME TN THIS ROUND OF THE
FIGHTING, 1'HE ~~IRUT-DAMASCUS ROAD HAS UEEN CUT JUST OU'T'SIDE BEIRUT.
Tf IS THE ONLY ROAD? OUT OF THE CAPITAL TO SYRIA AND TO THE
MOUNTAINS, WHICH HAVE BEEN FREE OF FIGHTING. ITS INTERDICTION HAS
ADDED A~'{VEt:! ELE"IENT OF NERVOUSNESS AhIONG CITY RESIDENTS?~'
INTERIOR MINISTER SHAMUN AND PRIME MINISTER KARAMI ANNOUNCED
ON THURSDAY THAT "STRICT" NEeI MEASURES TO STOP THE FIGHTING WOULD
BE IMPLEMENTED, ALTHOUGH NEITHER ELABORATED?ti'
ON THE POLITICAL FRONT, KARAMI IS COMING UNDER ATTACK FOR HI S
GOVERNMENT'S INABILITY TO HANDLE Tf-TE SITUATION. KARAMI HIMSELF IS
AT LOGGERHEADS WITH PRESIDENT FRANJIYAH, WHO CONTINUES TU CUPPORT
THE INTRANSIGENT STAND OF THE RIGHT-WING CHR?STTANS? KARAMI
REPORTEDLY WAS TH%EATENING TO RESIGN IN FRUSTRATI01`J AT F'RAIVJIYAH' S
OBSTRUCTIONISM BUT' WAS D?SSUADED BY THE SYRIANS?5'
LEFTIST LEADER KAMAL JUMBLATT IS STILL IN DAMASCUS, AND
THE SYRIANS ARE AGAIN ATTEMPTING TO Pi_RSUADE HIM TO JOIN
THE CAB;CN~T WITH PI-1HLANGIST L~ADER PIERRE JUMAYYII.? JUMBLATT
DATE:
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NOTHING TO REPORT. {UNCLP,SSIFIED} E-2 IMPDET.~rI
SDO DDODO
DATE:OCTOBER 25, 1975
ORIG:
uNlr: OCI/FLO
E~'~ 1945
NO INDLIf
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~.~A~~e+Jed For Release 2001/Q8d,i~1N,sT6d~~P86T00608R00030001UA6~&ATINOO-~~G~A
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