EUROPEAN BRIEF 142-75.4

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010044-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 21, 2001
• Sequence Number: 44
• Publication Date: September 12, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

App?oved for Release 2001/08/29 : C1A-R4P86TOOS08R000300010044=1
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EUROPEAN BRIEF 142-?5.Y
1. PORTUGAL: PORTUGUESE PRESIDENT COSTA GOMES AND THE NEXT
PRIME MINISTER, ADMIRAL AZEVEDO, ARE TRYING TO OVERCOME THE LATEST
OBSTACLE TO FORMING A NEW GOVERNMENT: THE COMMUNIST REFUSAL
TO COOPERATE.Y
THE MILITARY LEADERS, REPORTEDLY INCLUDING MAJOR MELO
ANTUNES, HAVE CONTINUED NEGOTIATIONS WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF
THE SOCIALIST, COMMUNIST, AND POPULAR DEMOCRATIC PARTIES TOWARD
FORMING A "NATIONAL UNTTY^ GOVERNMENT- THEY WANT- TO AVOID A
FORMAL COALITION AGREEMENT BUT TO ATTRACT ENOUGH SUPPORT AND
PA,'.TICIPATION FROM CIVILIANS TO GIVE THE IJEW GOVERNMENT A
CHANCE OF DEALING EFFECTIVELY WITH PORTUGAL'S GROWING ECONOMIC
AND SOCIAL PROBLEMS. THEIF TASK HAS BEEN GREATLY COMPLICATED,
HOWEVER, SINCE THE COMMUNISTS LAUNCHED A? HARSH PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN
AGAINST THE CENTER-LEFT POPULAR DEMOCRATS- THE COMMUNISTS CAMPAIGN
APPEARS TO BE A STALLING TACTIC DESIGNED TO GET THEM BETTER
TERMS FOR JOINING THE GOVERN;".ENT.Y
SOCIALIST LEADER MARIO SOARES HAS REPORTEDLY BEEN ASKED TO
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HELP OVERCOME THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE COMMUNISTS AND THE
POPULAR DEMOCRATS.Y
A POPULAR DEMOCRATIC PARTY SAID ON THURSDAY THAT AZEVEEDO,
COSTA GOMES, AND THE ANTUHES FACTION HAD
AGREED TO THE CONDITIONS OF HIS PARTY AND THE SOCIALISTS FOR
JOINING THE GOVERNMENT. MILITARY LEADERS MET TWICE ON THURSDAY
WITH THE COMMUNISTS AND THE SOCIALISTS; THE COMMUNISTS
APPARENTLY WERE PUTTING UP STIFF RESISTANCE TO THE CONDITIONS
OF THE OTHER TWO PARTIES. THE POPULAR DEMOCRATIC SOURCE SAID,
HOWEVER, THAT HE THOUGHT THAT THE COMMUNISTS WOULD EVENTUALLY
AGREE TO ENTER THE GOVERNMENTS'
COSTA GOMES ALSO PRESIDED OVER A MEETING OF THE
REVOLUTIONARY COUNCIL ON THURSDAY, PRESUMABLY TO DISCUSS THE
NEW GOVERNMENT, EFFORTS BY PRO-COMMUNISTS TO STIR UP TROUBLE
IN THE MILITARY, AND THE UNFAVORABLE REACTION TO THE DECREE
LAW IT PASSED ON MONDAY RESTRICTING PUBLICATION OF THE
MILITARY'S POLITICAL VIEWS.Y
NOT ONLY HAVE THE PRESS, RADIO, AND TELEVISION CRITICIZED
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THE DECREE LAW AS AN ABRIDGEMENT OF PRESS FREEDOM, BUT SOME IN THE
MEDIA HAVE EVEN DISOBEYED IT. A MEETING CALLED BY JOURNALISTS TO
FIGHT THE NEW LAW WAS HELD ON THURSDAY AT THE LEFTIST INDEPENDENT
DAILY A CAPITAL.Y
ON THE ISLAND OF MADEIRA, MEANWHILE, A SERIOUS THREAT TO
LISBON'S AUTHORITY APPEARS TO BE GATHERING STEAI'l. ON WEDNESDAY,
THE INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT THERE THREATENED TO EXPEL FROM THE
ISLAND ANYONE OPPOSED TO INDEPENDENCE UNLESS THEY DECLARED THEIR
SUPPORT BY MIDNIGHT, SEPTEMBER 17. THE LIST OF EXPELLEES INCLUDES
THE CHIEF OF STAFF OF THE PORTUGUESE FORCES IN MADEIRA, ALL
rONTINENTAL OFFICERS STATIONED THERE, AND ALL COMMUNIST PARTY
MEMBERS. {CONFIDENTIAL}4'
2. PORTUGAL-AZORES: GAINS BY THE ANTI-COMMUNIST FORCES IN
PORTUGAL, COUPLED WITH IMPROVED PROSPECTS FOR LOCAL AUTONOMY,
NOW SEEM TO HAVE LESSENED THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN ARMED REBELLION
IN THE AZORES.Y
THE INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT HAS BEEN SPURRED ON PRINCIPALLY
? BY FEARS OF THE POLITICALLY CONSERVATIVE AZOREAi'JS THAT A COMMUNIST
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TAKE-OVER IN LISBON WOULD LEAD TO COMMUNIST DOMINATION OF THE
ISLANDS THEMSELVES. IN RECENT WEEKS, LOCAL COMMUNISTS HAVE
BEEN PHYSICALLY ATTACKED AND THEIR PROPERTY HAS BEEN DESTROYED.
SOME HAVE EVEN BEEN DEPORTED, OSTENSIBLY FOR THEIR OWN SAFETY.Y
ASIDE FROM THE ANTI-COMMUNIST SENTIMENT, OTHER FACTORS
FUELING THE INDEPENDENCE DRIVE HAVE BEEN THE AZOREANS' DESIRE
FOR GREATER AUTONOMY, ECONOMIC INEQUITIES BETWEEN THE ISLANDS
AND PORTUGAL, AND A LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF AZOREAN PROBLEMS
SUCH TRADITIONAL DISCONTENT COULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY OVERCOME
IF THE RECENTLY FORMED GOVERNING JUNTA, MADE UP OF PROMINENT
AZOREANS, IS ALLOWED TO FUNCTION WITHOUT UNDUE INTERFERENCE
FROM THE MAINLAND. THE JUNTA, WHICH IS HEADED BY THE LOCALLY
POPULAR AND POLITICALLY SKILLFUL MILITARY GOVERNOR, GENERAL
ALTINO DE MAGALHAIES, HAS BEEN ASKED TO SET UP A NEW PERMANENT
GOVERNMENT FOR THE ARCHIPELAGO. IT HAS BEEN GIVEN A GENEROUS
BUDGET, WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY HELP TO COUNTERACT CHARGES
OF ECONOMIC NEGLECT. ?'CONFIDENTIAL}Y
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3. USSR-UN: MOSCOW HAS ANNOUNCED THAT ITS ANNUAL SHOWCASE
DISARMAMENT PROPOSAL FOR THE UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY THIS
YEAR WILL TAKE THE FORM OF A DRAFT TREATY BANNING ALL TESTINL OF
NUCLEAR, WEAPONS. ONE 'ET PURPOSE OF TAE EXERCISE IS TO EMBARRASS
THE CHINESE.'
AS WITH PREVIOUS SOVIET PROPOSALS, MOSCOW AVOIDS MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONCESSIONS. ALL NUCLEAR WEAPONS TESTS WOULD BE
BANNED, AND VERIFICATION OF COMPLIANCE WOULD BE BY "NATIONAL
TECHNICAL MEANS" RATHER THAN Eh AN INTERNATIONAL-BODY-
EXEMPTED FROM THE BAN WOULD BE "PEACEFUL" UNDERGROUND NUCLEAR
EXPLOSIONS. STATES WITHOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS COULD CONDUCT "PEACEFUL"
EXPLOSIONS AS PROVIDED IN THE NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION TREATY,
WHILE NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATES WOULD NEGOTIATE A NEW ACCORD TO
COVER THEIR ACTIVITIES- THE TREATY WOULD-NOT COME INTO EFFECT
UNTIL ALL NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATES, INCLUDING CHINA AND FRANCE, HAD
AGREED. FURTHERMORE, IT WOULD HAVE NO TIME LIMIT; ANY SIGNATORY
WOULD BE ABLE TO WITHDRAW IF IT FELT THE TREATY CONFLICTED WITH
ITS "HIGHER INTERESTS."Y
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MOSCOW OBVIOUSLY IS FOLLOWING THE SAME PROPAGANDA ROUTE
IT TOOK WITH PROPOSALS FOR A WORLD DISARMAMENT CONFERENCE {1971},
A PERMANENT BAN ON THE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS {1972}, A REDUCTION
OF MILITARY B!.IDGETS {11973}, AND BANS ON ENVJ:RONMENTAL MODIFICATION
{1974}. ITS LACK OF CONSULTATION WITH THE OTHER NUCLEAR STATES
BEFORE ANNOUNCING ITS LATEST PROPOSAL AND THE FOREORDAINED
OPPOSITION. OF CHINA AND FRANCE SHOW THAT MOSCOW EXPECTS NO
SERIOUS NEGOTIATIONS ON THE SUBJECT. {CONFIDENTIAL}Y
4. USSR: THE REGIME HAS RECENTLY REMOVED.A LOOPHOLE
FROM THE SO-CALLED "PARASITE" LAW, WHICH WILL FA-
CILITATE CONVICTION OF PERSONS DEEMED TO HAVE NO
STEADY EMPLOYMENT. THE PRACTICAL EFFECT OF THE
CHANGE REMAINS TO BE SEEN; THE "PARASITE" LAW IS
BUT ONE OF AN ARRAY OF MEASURES USED TO CONTROL THE
TROUBLESOME DISSIDENT AND NON-DISSIDENT FRINGES OF
SOVIET SOCIETY--AND MOST OF THESE MEASURES ARE AP-
PLIED ARBITRARILY. PLUGGING THE LOOPHOLE, HOWEVER.,
DOES IMPROVE THE CREDIBILITY OF THE LEGAL THREAT,
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AND COULD THUS BE A;JOTHER IN A SCN'Ti S OF MEASURES
DESIGNED--AMONG OTHER THINGS--TO DISCOURAGE SOVIET
CITIZENS FROM APPLYING FOR EMIGRATION. THOSE WHO
DO APPLY ROUTINELY LOSE THEIR JOBS.4'
THE NEW LAW, PUBLISHED ON AUGUST III, ALTERS
ARTICLE 209 OF THE RUSSIAN REPUBLIC'S CRIMINAL CODE
BY ADDING A PROVISION THAT ANY PERSON "LEADING A
PARASITICAL WAY OF LIFE F Oi? A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TIMER IS LIABLE TO A O1JE YEAf SENTENCE IN JAIL OR
LABOR CAMP. THE NET EFFECT OF THIS PROVISI(ii'J, TO-
GETHER WITH SOME EARLIER CHANGES IN THE LANGUAGE
OF THE RELEVANT ARTICLE, IS THAT PERSONS CHARGED
WITH PARASITISM CAN NO LONGER TAKE REFUGE IN THE
FAILURE OF THE PROSECUTION TO DEMONSTRATE WILLFUL
REFUSAL OF AN ORDER TO ACCEPT WORK ASSIGNMENTS.
MANY SUCH PERSONS OFTEN ACCEPTED ASSIGNED JOBS FOR
A SHORT TIME AND THEN QUIT, THUS BUYING TIME BE-
FORE REPEAT;rNG THE CYCLE . Y
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IF DISCOURAGEMENT OF EMIGRATION APPLICATIONS
IS INDEED ONE OF THE NEW LAW'S GOALS, IT MAY GO
HAND IN HAND WITH THE LEGISLATION PUBLISHED IN
MAY THAT IMPOSED A HTGH=R TAX ON CASH REMITTANCES
FROM ABROAD {STAFF NOTES JULY 31. THE LATTER LAW,
EFFECTIVE NEXT JANUAi'.Y 1, A?PEARS DESIGNED TO
REDUCE THE NET AMOUNT OF EXTERNAL FINANCIAL SUPPORT
RECEIVED BY DISSIDENTS, ACTIVjTSTS, AND OTHERS--
MOSTLY JEWS--IJHOSE APPLICATION FOR EMIGRATION HAVE
RESULTED IN LOSS 011 EMPLOYMENT. THE RECENT AMEND-
MENT TO THE "PARASITE" LAW MAY THUS BE ANOTHER SEG-
MENT OF THE LEGAL CIRCLE BEING DRAWN AROUND THESE
ELEMENTS OF SOVIET SOCIETY. {CONFIDENTIAL}Y
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1, /'. BULGARIA: BULGARIAN PREMIER STANKO TODOROV'S NATIONAL
DAY SPEECH ON MONDAY REAFFIRMED SOFIA'S AUTHORITAR-
IAN APPROACH TO DOMESTIC POI_.ICY. IT ALSO PROVIDED
THE FIRST PUBLIC INDICATION OF CONCERN OVER THE
STATE OF' THE ECONOMY . Y
ADDRESSING A GROUP OF HIGH-LEVEL PARTY AND GOV-
ERNMENT OFFICIALS, TODOROV BEGAN WITH THE USUAL
OBEISANCE TO THE SOVIETS AND NDICATED SOFIA WOULD
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IN MOSCOW'S FOOTSTEPS?Y
TODOROV NEVERTHELESS SHOWED SOME SENSITIVITY
TO THE DISSATISFACTION OF BULGARIAN NATIONALISTS
WITH THE REGIME'S SLAVISHLY PRO-SOVIET STANCE,
STATING THAT CURRENT POLICIES ARE "NO NEGATION OF
THE 13-CENTURY HISTORY OF THE BULGARIAN STATE." HE
ALSO IMPLIED THAT THE BULGARIAN PAR'T'Y HAD SOLVED
SOME OF ITS SPECIAL PROBLEMS WITHOUT SOVIET ASSISTANCE.Y
TODOROV DEVOTED THr MAIN PART OF HIS ADDRESS,
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HOWEVER, TO A LESS-THAN-ROSY ECONOMIC FORECAST. HE
PLACES AT LEAST PARTIAL BLAME ON WESTERN INFLATION,
WHICH SOFIA HAS HERETOFORE MAINTAINED DID NOT AFFECT
ITS DOMESTIC ECONOMY. TODOROV FAILED TO MENTION
THE IMPACT OF HIGHER SOVIET PRICES FOR RAW MATERIALS,
ESPECIALLY OIL. BULGAF'IA IS THE ONLY EAST EUROPEAN
COUNTRY THAT HAS NOT ANNOUNCED THE PRICE HIKES WHICH
TOOK EFFECT IN JANUARY, BUT SOME SPOKESMEN HAVE
PRIVATELY PROFESSED NOT TO bE. CONCERNED OVER ANY.
POSSIBLE REPERCUSSIONS.Y
TODOROV AGAIN CALLED FOR GREATER DISCIPLINE IN
ORDER TO INCREASE LABOR PRODUCTIVITY AND SUSTAIN A
HIGH RATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE REGIME WILL CON-
TINUE ITS CAMPAIGN TO INCREASE SHIFT IJORK TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE FIVE-DAY WORKWEEK. HE ALSO CONFIRMED THAT
HIGH-LEVEL PERSONNE!_. CHANGES OVER THE PAST FEU MONTHS
WERE MADE TO IMPROVE ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY AND PLANNING.
ALTHOUGH PRAISING RECENT SUCCESSES, TODOROV ADDED
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THAT SOME PERENNIALLY WEAK SECTORS, SUCH AS HOUSING
AND CONSUMER SERVICES, CONTINUE TO BE A "SERIOUS
CAUSE OF CONCERN AND ALARM."''
THE PREMIER HAD 0 T H~`' 3AD ;r-'JS FOR THE CONSUMER
HE STATED THAT "EXAGGERATED CONSUMER ASPIRATIONS AND
PETTY BOURGEOIS ATTITUDES DO NOT BECOME SOCIALISM"--
WORDS THAT SURELY WILL. NOT BE MET WITH ENTHUSIASM.
TODOROV MAY BE PREPARING THE PUBLIC FOR A SLOWDOWN
IN THE GROWTH OF CONSUMER GOODS AND FOR POSSIBLE-
CONSUMER PRICE RISES.'
TOAOROV PRAISED SOFIA'S "DYNAMIC FOREIGN POLICY"
AND SAID THAT THE PERSONAL CONTRIBUTION OF PARTY-STATE
LEADER ZHIVKOV HAS "ENHANCED THE PRESTIGE OF OUR
COUNTRY." ON BULGARIAN-YUGOSLAV RELATIONS-, TODOROV'S
REMARKS WERE CONCILIATORY. HE SINGLED OUT ZHIVKOV'S
TALKS WITH YUGOSLAV PRESIDENT TITO AT THE HELSINKI
SUMMIT, NOTING THEY WOULD LEAD TO INCREASED BILATERAL
COOPERATION. {CO;IIFIDE;-?1 TI AL} E-2 IMPDET.rd
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EAST ASIA BRIEF 142-75.4'
LAOS: THE COMMUNISTS ARE STEPPING UP THE PRESSURE AGAINST
PRIME MINISTER SOUVANNA PHOUMA AND KING SAVANG. THE TWO CLEARLY
HAVE NO PLACE IN THE COMMUNIST STATE THAT HAS BEEN DEVELOPING
IN LAOS SINCE LAST SPRING. THE PATHET !LAO UP TO NOW, HOWEVER,
HAVE TREATED BOTH THE MONARCHY AND SOUVANNA, THEA SYMBOL OF
"COALITION" RULE, WITH CIRCUMSPECTION, PERHAPS OUT OF CONCERN
THAT ANY EARLY OR ABRUPT MOVES MIGHT NEEDLESSLY DAMAGE THE LAO
COMMUNIST REPUTATION ABROAD AND EVEN PROVOKE SOMt INTERNAL
OPPOSITION. IN ANY CASE, IT NOW SEEMS LIKELY THAT BOTH SOUVANNA
AND THE KING WILL BE FORCED FROM THEIR POSTS BY NEXT SPRING IF
THEY HAVE NOT RESIGNED EARLIER.'
IN A BROADCAST ON SEPTEMBER 9, PATHET LAO - CONTROLLED
RADIO VIENTIANE REPORTED THAT IN AN INTERVIEW WITh AN AFP
CORRESPONDENT, PRIME MINISTER SOUVANNA PHOUMA STATED HE WOULD
NOT E JOT"JTNG A NEW GOVERNMENT FOLLOWING THE "GENERAL ELECTIONS"
SCHEDULED FOi APRIL 1- 1'976. SOUVANNA INDICATED THAT HE WOULD
RATHER RETIRE AND ADVISE HIS "YOUNGER SUCCESSORS-"41
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SOUVANNA SEVERAL TIMES IN THE PAST PAS INDICATED TO FOREIGN
NEWSMEN THAT HE WOULD RETIRE AFTER THE GENERAL ELECTIONS, BUT HIS
REMARKS RECEIVED LITTLE NOTICE IN THE GOVERNMENT MEDIA. BY REPLAYING
RITHIS LATEST INTERVIEW, THE COMMUNISTS PRESUMABLY HOPE TO MAKE IT
DIFFICULT FOR HIM NOT TO CARRY OUT HIS PROMISE.Y
SOUVANNA ALMOST CERTAINLY H)PES THAT HIS HALF BROTHER
SOUPHANOUVONG WILL BE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER. HE MAINTAINS THAT
SOUPHANOUVONG IS MORE OF A "NATIONALIST" THAN A COMMUNIST. THE
PATHET LAO, HOWEVER, HAVE OFFERED FEW HINTS ON THEIR CHOCIE. THE
SELECTION IN ANY CASE WILL HAVE LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE, BECAUSE
REAL POWER WILL REST, AS IT DOES NOW, WITH THE LAO COMMUNIST
PARRTY HEADED BY KAYSONE PHOMVIHAN.Y
THE COMMUNISTS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO WHITTLE AWAY AT THE PFLSTIGE
OF KING SAVANG IN AN APPARENT EFFORT TO FORCE HIS EARLY ABDICATION
OR PERHAPS Si:AP THE INSTITUTION OF THE MONARCHY ALTOGETHER. AT
A RECENT FESTTVAL IN LUANG PRABANG, THE ROYAL CAPITAL, FOR
EXAMPLE, THE COMMUNISTS.CUT BACK ON SOME OF THE FORMALITIES
DESIGNED TO PAY HOMAGE TO THE KING AND ELIMINATED HIS TRADITIONAL
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MIDDLE EAST AFRICA BRIEF 142-75.Y
1. LERBANON: LEBANESE ARMY UNITS MOVED INTO POSITION BETWEEN
TRIPOLI AND ZAGHARTA EARLY ON THURSDAY, EFFECTIVELY ENDING CIVIL
UNREST IN NORTHERN LEBANON. A FEW LEFTIST AND MUSLIM POLITICIANS
IN TRIPOLI HAVE CRITICIZED THE CABINET'S DECISION TO BRING
IN THE ARMY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF MUSLIMS AND CHRISTIANS IN
THE AREA APPEAR TO HAVE WELCOMED IT-9
THE COUNTRY'S MAIN MUSLIM POLITICAL LEADERS, WHO RESIDE IN
BEIRUT AND ORDINARILY OPPOSE ANY USE OF THE ARMY FOR INTERNAL
SECURITY PURPOSES, HAVE SO FAR WITHHELD COMMENT. THIS IS
PARTLY OUT OF DEFERENCE TO KARAMI, WHO HEADS ONE IMPORTANT
SUNNI MUSLIM FACTION, BUT IT ALSO REFLECTS THEIR ADMIRATION FOR
THE CONCESSIONS HE HAS BEEN ABLE TO WRING FROM LEBANON'S
CONSERVATIVE CHRISTIAN LEADERS.Y
THE CABINET YESTERDAY APPROVED A BILL REORGANIZING THE ARMY
TO ESTABLISH THE "COMMAND COUNCIL" PROPOSED BY KARAMI IN A
POLICY SPEECH LAST MONTH. ALTHOUGH NO DETAILS HAVE BEEN MADE
PUBLIC, THE COUNCIL PRESUMABLY WOULD INCLUDE REPRESENTATIVES
DATE:
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PE LF? :I Approved For Release 2001MP21T'tcCrA,=RDP86TOO608R00030001bPY441-1t,NG OFPIG f.P
 Apr r Veh 'P&) kd se hhh1'A(~ VAA-RDP$6t(~
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0 0 0 0
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0 NO INDEX
0 uEr'RN TO PER
OF LEBANON'S MAJOR RELIGIOUS SECTS AND HAVE THE FINAL WORD ON
SUCH MATTERS AS ARMY DEPLOYMENTS AND PROMOTIONS. LOSS OF THESE
PREROGATIVES WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE POWER OF THE ARMY
COMMAINDER, WHO BY CUSTOM IS ALWAYS A MARONITE CHRISTIAtN.Y
CHRISTIAN GROUPS IN PARLIAMENT HAVE IN THE PAST STRONGLY
OPPOSED PROPOSALS TO REORGANIZE THE ARMY. KARAMI'S POSITION HAS
BEEN STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY BY HIS HANDLING OF THE CURRENT
CRISIS, HOWEVER, AND HIS PFCPOSALS MAY NOW WIN GREATER BACKING
FROM CENTRIST CHRISTIAN POLITICIANS HOPING TO AVVID ANOTHER
ROUND OF VIOLENCE.Y
IN RETURN FOR THEIR SUPPORT FOR THE GOVERNMENT, MUSLIM
LEADERS APPARENTLY ARE DEMANDING ALSO THAT THE CHRISTIANS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE KILLING OF 12 MUSLIMS ON THE TRIPOLI-BEIRUT
HIGHWAY LAST SUNDAY BE TURNED OVER TO AUTHORITIES. CHRISTIAN
LEADERS SO FAR HAVE REFUSED TO MEET THIS DEMAND.Y
LEFTIST LEADERS WHO FOLLOW KAMAL JUMBLATT, HEAD OF THE
PROGRESSIVE SOCIALIST PARTY, MET ON THURSDAY AND REPORTEDLY WILL
ASSEMBLE AGAIN TODAY TO CONSIDER THEIR REACTION TO THE
DATE:
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GOVERNMENT MOVE. THEY HAVE PROMISED A FORMAL POLICY STATEMENT,
WHICH PROBABLY WILL BE CRITICAL BUT WILL FALL SHORT OF
ADVOCATING ARMED RESISTANCE-4'
ZIJHAYR MUHSIN, HEAD OF THE SYRIAN-CONTROLLED SAIC2A FEDAYEEN
GROUP AND THE PALESTINE LIBERATION ORGANIZATION MILITARY
DEPARTMENT, ANNOUNCED YESTERDAY THAT THE PALESTINIANS HAVE NO
OBJECTION TO THE GOVE1'NMENT'S USE OF THE ARMY. THE DECISION TO
DO SO, HE SAID, IS A "PURELY DOMESTIC QUESTION."Y
LEBANESE AND PALESTINIAN RADICALS BACKED BY- IRAQ HAVE,
CALLED FOR A GENERAL STRIKE ON MONDAY TO PROTEST DEPLOYMENT
OF THE ARMY. THEIR CALL IS NOT LIKED' TO BE HEEDED, HOWEVER,
UNLESS THE CONTINUING CABINET TALKS ON ARMY REFORM BREAK DOWN.
-CCONFIDENTIALTY
2. ETHIOPIA: ADDIS ABABA AND ASMARA ARE REPORTED TO BE
TENSE AS THE ETHIOPIAN PROVISIONAL MILITARY GOVERNMENT PREPARES
FOR THE CELEBRATION ON SEPTEMBER 13 OF THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY
OF ITS OUSTER OF EMPEROR HAILE SELASSIE. THE RULING MILITARY
COUNCIL HAS ALREADY REINFORCED THE GARRISON IN ASMARA, THE
DATE:
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4LLlASI G O+FIGc4 OCP^~'. ?' I'~4. OFFICERS AUTMENTICAT!'O OFFICE."
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cQ6'0T0-044=1' _..
PAGH+ OI PA UV :i
^ IPrILES Z
CAPITAL OF ERITREA PROVINCE, WHERE REBEL SEPARATISTS ARE OPERATING,
AND WILL MAINTAIN MAXIMUM SECURITY BOTH THERE AND IN ADDIS ABABA.Y
ACCORDING TO SOME SOURCES, THE MILITARY RULERS MAY PROCLAIM
A REPUBLIC-A MOVE FORESHADOUED LAST MARCH WHEN THEY REV03AKED THEIR
EARLIER APPOINTMENT OF HAILE SELASSIE'S SON AS KING. THERE ARE ALSO
REPORTS, THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL DROP THE "PROVISIONAL" FROM ITS
TITLE, A MOVE THAT MIGHT SPARK OPPOSITION FROM STUDENTS AND OTHERS
WHO WANT A RETURN TO CIVILIAN RULE. WHATEVER IS ANNOUNCED, MAJOR
MENGISTU AND LIEUTENANT COLONEL ATNAFU, WHO EMERGED DURING THE
PAST YEAR AS THE KEY COUNCIL MEMBER?S, WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE
TO WIELD EFFECTIVE POWER.Y
SOME TOP LEVEL MILITARY OFFICERS AND DEFENSE MINISTRY OFFICIALS
MAY BE RETIRED THIS WEEKEND-IN PART TO PROVIDE JOB OPENINGS FOR
AMBITIOUS YOUNG OFFICERS. . ILLEGIB
ON SEPTEMBER 11 THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED THAT IT HAD RELEASED
AND IMNESTI-D 55 POLITICAL PRISONERS, MOST OF WHOM WERE FORMER
GOVEF:iMENT OFF=ICIALS. THE FATE OF THE REMAINING PRISONERS IS NOT
CLEAR. ON SEPTEMBER 12 THE GOVERNMENT SAID IT HAD NO INTENTION
WE:
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OF EXECUTING OTHER PRISONER:s 'JITHOUT TRIAL. THE GOVERNMENT HAS
MOVED THE SURVIVING MEMBERS OF THE ROYAL FAMILY, PRINCIPALLY
THE EMPERIOR'S DAUGHTER AND GRANDDAUGHTERS, TO AUSTERE PRISON
!QUARTERS, BUT PUBLIC^LLY DENIED ANY "!TENTION TO EXECUTE THEM.
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1945
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WESTERN HEMISPHERE BRIEF 142-75.Y
//CHILE: IN A CEREMONY ON SEPTEMBER 11 MARKING THE SECOND
ANNIVERSARY OF THE MILITARY TAKE-OVER, PRESIDENT AUGUSTO PINOCHET
DECLARED THAT HIS GOVERNMENT WOULD PARTIALLY EASE THE STATE OF SIEti
BUT HE REAFFIRMED ITS INTENTION TO RESTRICT INDIVIDUAL RIGHTS. MOST
OF THE SPEECH WAS DEVOTED TO REITERATING THE REGIl1E'S MORAL
RIGHTEOUSNESS, ITS FIERCE OPPOSITION TO MARXISM, AND ITS DETERMINA-
TION TO STICK WITH A HARD LINE.//Y
I/NO NEt DEPARTURES WERE ANNOUNCED IN ECONCf1IC OR FOREIGN
AFFAIRS. THE ONLY NOTEUORTHY INNOVATION WAS A PROPOSAL TO CREATE
A "COUNCIL OF STATE" COfPOSED OF FORMER PRESIDENTS AND OTHER PRO-
MINENT CITIZENS TO ADVISE THE JUNTA ON VAJOR QUESTIONS. WHILE THIS
WOULD SEEPS TO OPEN THE DOOR TO COOPERATION WITH KEY POLITICIANS
SUCH AS FORMER PRESIDENT EDUARDO F'REI, LEADER OF THE LARGE CHRISTIAN
DEMOCRATIC PARTY, THE ODDS ARE AGAINST THE MOVE TOWARD A MEANINGFUL
DIALOGUE. FREI REPORTEDLY FORESEES THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPfENT OF SOME
FORA OF COOPERATION WITH THE ARMED FORCES% BUT HE IS PROBABLY HOPING
THAT ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES WILL FORCE THE GOVERNMENT TO ABANDON ITS
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EXTREMELY CONSERVATIVE ADVISERS AND PERHAPS ALTER THE JUNTA LEADER-
SHIP.//y
//THE PRESIDENT'S STRONG DISTRUST OF POLITICAL PARTIES AND HIS
INDIRECT CRITICISM OF THEM IN BIS SPEECH SEEM TO SHOW THAT THERE
HAS NOT BEEN ANY REAL SHIFT IN THE GOVERNMENT'S AUTHORITIRIAN
ATTITUDE OR IN ITS TENDENCY TO EQUATE ALL OPPOSITION WITH SUBVERSIoU.
ACTUALLY. THE PROPOSAL IS MORE LIKELY TO BE A PUBLIC RELATIONS GAMBIT
THAN A FORTHRIGHT STEP TOWARD GREATER POLITICAL TOLERANCE.//Y
//PINOCHET'S DECISO?N TO REDUCE THE STATE OF SIEGE HAY ALSO
BE A LARGELY EMPTY GESTURE. THE DECISION WILL ALLOW SOME REVIEW
AUTHORITY OY CIVIL COURTS, BUT THERE VILL PROBABLY BE LITTLE SUB-
STANTIVE IMPACT UNLESS THE GOVERNMENT CHOOSES TO ABIDE BY DECREES
MORE CLOSELY THAN IT HAS IN THE PAST. THERE HAS BEEN A REPEATED
TENDENCY TO LOOK THE OTHER WAY WHILE THE SECURITY FORCES IGNORE THE
LETTER AS WELL AS THE SPIRIT OF THE LAW- THERE WAS NO NEW WORD ON
THE RELEASE OF PRXSONRRS.//Y
//FOR THE r4 ST PART THE PRESIDENT DUELLED ON HIS NOW STANDARD
THEME THAT CHILE STA14DS VIRTUALLY ALONE IN ITS CAMPAIGN AGAINST
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MONOLITHIC WORLD COMMUNISM. THE US EMBASSY OBSERVED THAT HIS
GENERALLY LACKLUSTER STATEMENTS FOUND A LESS ENTHUSIASTIC RECEPTION
THAN LAST YEAR. THE RELATIVELY MINOR MODIFICATIONS NE PROPOSED
WILL NOT GO FAR TOWARD STAISFYING CHILEANS WHO HAD HOPED FOR GREATER
POLITICAL LIBERALIZATION AND A MORE HUMANISTIC ECONOMIC POLICY. NOR
WILL THEY DO MUCH TO BOLSTER CHILE'S INTERNATIONAL IMAGE.//V
//ALTHOUGH PIMOCHET SAID THE INTERNAL UNITY OP THE JUNTA WAS
"LIKE GRANITE%" WE BELIEVE THAT GENERAL LEIGH THE AIR FORCE MEMBER
OF THE JUNTA, IS UNLIKELY TO BE SATISFIED WITH THE PRESIDENT'S HARD-
LINE STANCE. MORE FRICTION OVER POLICYMAKING SEEMS INEVITABLE.
(SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM}//E-2 IMPDET.vt
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