(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010009-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 9, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 20, 2001
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: July 11, 1975
• Content Type: CABLE

+ + ~ ' ~'~~ }I :~ ? i~ ?~.:f Appsaved -for Release 20D1108129 CfA-RDP86T00608R000300010009-Q
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EAP BRIEF 107-75.Y
1. VIETNAM: OFFICIALS IN HANOI ARE, APPARENTLY FOR THE FIRST
TIME, MEETING SOME OF THEIR PETROLEUM REQUIREMENTS FROM
NON-COMMUNIST SOURCES. THE NORTH VIETNAMESE LAST MONTH
APPROACHED TWO SINGAPORE-BASED COMPANIES TO PURCHASE 8,000
TO 10,000 TONS OF OIL. THE VIETNAMESE SAID THEY WC:RE
TRYING TO REDUCE THEIR DEPENDENCE ON THE USSR AND CHINA.
AT LEAST PANT OF THE OIL PROBABLY WAS INTENDED FOR SOUTH
VIETNAM, LIIHERE THERE ARE SEVERE SHORTAGES.Y
SINGAPORE IS THE LOGICAL SUPPLIER TO BOTH THE NORTH
AND SOUTH L3ECAlISE OF ITS PROXIMITY AND THE AVAILA ILITY
OF SMALL, COASTAL TANKERS. THREE CF THE FIVE MAJOR:
SIIJGAPORE/`N REFINERIES HAVE FINANCIAL TIES WITH U`:
COMPANIES AND ARE CURRENTLY FORBIDDEN BY US LAW TO
T APE IJITI?I THE VIETNAMESE.[?
ONE OF THE COMPANIES ArPRoAC.HED BY THE VIE'i'i;'AiiESE
PUT THEM OFF BECAUSE OF ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH US OIL T IRMS.
SUBSEQUEN'1LY, A BRITISH PETROLEUM AFFILIATE FILLET, THE
DATr.":
BRIG:
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ORDER FOR THE FUEL OII_, AND THE VIETNAMESE INDICATED
THEY WOULD BE BUYING MORE .Y
THE POTENTIAL OF EVEN A COMBINED NORTH AND SOUTH
VIETNAMESE MARKET FOR NON-COMMUNIST SUPPLIERS IS NOT
LIKELY TO BE GREAT- WHATEVER THE WISHES OF HANOI, THE
TWO VIETNAMS CANNOT AFFORD TO BUY MUCH OIL IN WORLD
MAI\KETS. THE LACK' OF LARGE EXPORT EARNINGS OR WESTERN
FINANCIAL. AID PRECLUDES ALL BUT TOKEN HARD-CURRENCY
PURCHASES FOR NOW.'
AS A RESULT OF SEVERELY DEPRESSED ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
SINCE THE COMMUNIST TAKE-OVER, Ii, E?:i'cc:f l`~LF~DISCOI;RAGEMENT
OF PRIVATE L;VEH]:CULAR USES, AND THE TERMINATION OF MOST
MILITARY CONSUMPTION, ANNUAL PETROLEUM REQUIREMLNITS IN
THE `'.UTH A ;E PROBABLY ONLY ABOUT A T;(IRD OF THE 2 11ILLION
TONS IMPORTED IN 1974- ALTHOUGH ENERGY CONSUMPTIO?d WILL.
INCREASE AS INI)USIRTAL OUTPUT AND TRANSPORT RECOVER? PLAN.NEU
CONVERSION OF OIL-["'.[FRED ELECTRIC PLANTS TO COAL, AND REPAIR
ANi) EXPANSION OF HYDROELECTRIC FACILITIES COULD r E::>LJCE
ni,TE
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 . MG 59AGCto A141.C(INSID,:NI?:U HUUIII.L UNL.E SA A If W. 111.14 CHECCI) II NC L It; INDIrkTLU IN 111L AD I IIfL5'.CL LINO.
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0 11" FILES FUTURE PETROLEUM NEEDS. NORTH VIETNAM'S NEED FOR PETROLEUM
IMPORTS-WHICH AMOUNTED TO 775,000 TONS LAST YEAR-IS EXPECTED
TO DECLINE BY AT LEAST ONE THIRD, NOW THAT THE MILITARY
CAMPAIGN 1 THE SOUTH HAS ENDED.Y
ULTIMATELY, VIETNA11=SE OFFICIALS HOPE TO MELT
DOMESTIC NEEDS F1-ROM OFFSHORE OIL PRODUCTION. COMNI.fRCIAL
OUTPUT FROM THIS SOURCE IS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, AND IF
PROVEN WOULD BE AT LEAST FIVE YEARS ALLAY. {CONF:LDEN1 IAL}
2. PH:ILIPPINES ?-US:f:{:P'01 PLO FJ['//PRESIDENT MARCOSE`'
STAFF HAS DRALIN UP A BLUEPRINT FOR A NE!J us-?rHILIPP'T.fNE BASE
AGREEI1LNT THAT CALLS FOR PHILIP-'PINE 1'IANAGE:f1E:NT AND USE OF
THE BASES FOR COMMERCIAL AS WEI..P. AS MILITARY PURPOSES. THERE
IS NO INDICATION OF 1*1AP"COS' Rl,AC'f:i:4h1 T4 Ii!'(; Pf;rln;I ; L, AND
IT IS PROBABLY ONLY ONE OF A RANGE OF OPTIONS HE WILL
CONSIDER BEFORE ENTERING NEGO'I':P ::EONS ON 'i HE BASES .//Y
J:I'J RECENT PUBLIC STATEI1EIJTS, ;LARGOS HAS BEE[.' EMPHASIZING
IIIE: NEED FOR CONTROL OVER THE 21.::ES IN ORI)ER TO END THE
PROVISION OF- THE EXISTING AGNEEMr_NT
SIGNAL. CENTER USC ONLY
A G1i CU, ACI? TOO TI?C MHO DO
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0
!AKE THE BASES ECONOMICALLY PRODUCTIVE FOR THE
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PHILIPPINES, WHILE PRESERVING THEIR MILITARY USEFLILP!ESS
TO THI: US f/THE PROPOSAL DRAFTED BY EXECUTIVE SECRETARY
MELCH')R'S STAFF ENVISIONS CREATING A US-PHILIPPINE PUBLIC
CORPORATION TO MANAGE THE BASES A(17b SF:F:VICE US MILITARY
FORCES ? ('1ELCHOR RELIEVES THAT THE I ACILITIES AT CLIdRi: AIR
BASE AND SUBIC BAY NAVAI-. BASE CAN EASILY BE DEVELOPED INTO
MAJOR COI1MERCIA(.. ASSETS FOR THE PFIILIPPINES?//Y
//THE PROPOSAL RECOMMENDS USING THE BASES TO SERVICE
C: VILI:AN AIRCRAFT AND VESSELS OF ANY NATIONALITY. IN
DEFERENCE TO THE SECURITY HELLS OF THE US IIIL1TARY, THE
PROPOSAL CONCEDES THAT CERTAIN BASE OPERATIONS lIOULD REMAIN
1ENL ER C.~(if'l..E l E LIB; I J:I..I'I'AR`i CON11R01_ ,"+(!D S IJGGES T S THAT THIS
MIGHT BE ACCO11PLISHED BY HIRING THE US AIR FORCE AND NAVY
AS StJF -' CON!1'f; ACTORS . //`I'
MARCOS IN RECENT PUBLIC APd:u PR :VA?.TE STA T F(iEN'i S Hi's
STRESSED THAT I!I?II'F .VER /+RRAN(~E('1=i~'fS fi:E EVENTUALLY (EJRR:i E])
OUT MUST ALLOW THE US TO MAINTAIN AN EFFECTIVE
DATE :
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IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. MANILAS CONTROLLED PRESS HAS ALSO
COMMENTED ON THE NEED FOR CONTINUED US ACCESS TO THE BASES
MANILA'S FINAL DECISION ON A NEW ARRANGEMENT IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE OUTCOME OF CURRENT US-SPANISH
BASE NEGOTIATIONS THAN BY MECHOR'S GRANDIOSE SCHEME. MARCOS IS
CLOSCLY MONI'i OI;ING THE TALKS WITH MADRID AN)) IS PARTICULARLY
INTERESTED IN THE PROVISIONS GOVERNING COMPENSATION AND JOINT
USE OF THE FACILITIES- {SECRET} E-2 IMPDET. rl
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WESTERN HEIISPHERE BRIEF.107-7S ? Y
//CHILE: CHILEAN PRESIDENT PINOCHET%9 PENCHANT FOR BAKING
DECISIONS ON HIS OWN IS AGGRAVATING RELATIONSHIPS WITHIN THE RUL!'NG
MILITARY JUNTA- A REAL RIFT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY, BUT THE
PRESIDENT'S HANDLING OF DIFFICULT PRCjBLERS FACING THE GOVERNMENT
COULD PROVOKE CONTINUING CRITICISM BY HIS ASSOCIATES.//Y
//PINOCHET HAS ANTAGONIZES THE THREE OTHER JUPTA MEMBERS
BEFORE. BUT HIS FAILURE TO CONSULT WITH THEM RECENTLY ON P$AJOt
DECISIONS, SUCH AS HIS CANCELLATION OF A UN FACT-FINDING TEAM'S
SCHEDULED VISIT, HAS CAUSED RESENTMENTS TO FLARE ANEW.//Y
//THE CHILEAN LEADER APPARENTLY IS AWARE OF THE FRICTION
AND MAY TAKE STEPS TO REDUCE IT. FOR THE $0ST PART, THE OTHER SER-
VICE CHIEFS AGREE ON BASIC FOVERNPIENT POLICIES AND WOULD NOT RISK
A SPLIT OVER INDIVIDUAL ISSUES OR PERSONAL RIVALRY WITH THE PRESI-
DENT- OBJECTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE DIRECTED AT THE PRESIDENT'S
GO-IT-ALONE ATTITUDE THAN AT THE ACTURL DECISIONS NE MAKES.//M
//IF PINOCHET CAN SHOW 16ME SUCCESSES IN HIS ECONOMIC AND
FOREIGN POLICIES% HE WILL PROBABLY HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE KEEPING THE
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OTHER JUNTA HEi:i3ERS BEHIND HIM ? F/Y
//PINOCHET REPORTEDLY IS CONSIDERING THE RELEASE OF
IMPRISONED COMMUNIST PARTY LEADER LUIS CORVALAN AS A MEANS OF OFF-
SETTINIS THE BAD PRESS FROM HIS DECISION TO KEEP THE UN MISSION GU'T
OF SANTIAGO. THIS MOULD NOT HELP MUCH+ HOWEVER, AND IF REPORTS
ARE TRUE THAT PINOCHET'S GOVERNMENT IS EXPLORING A SOtkrH AFRICAN
OFFER OF FINANCIAL AND MILITARY AIDi CHILE t1AY FACE FURTHER ISOLA-
TION. {SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEMI// E-2 IMPDET?rI
3)0/ DD O
25X1A
JULY 11. 1975
OCI/YHP
1114
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EUROPEAN BRIEF ]107-75.Y
1. PORTUGAL: THE PORTUGUESE SOCIALIST PARTY WITHDREW FROM
THE FOUR-PARTY COALITION GOVERNMENT LAST NIGHT TO PROTEST THE
REVOLUTIONARY COUNCIL'S NAILING OF A MILITARY COMMISSION TO RUN THE
SOCIALIST NEWSPAPER REPUBLICA. THE MOVE CAME WHEN REPUDLICA PUBLISHED
AN ISSUE UNDER THE CONTROL OF A WORKERS' COORDINATION COMMITTEE
WITH AN ARMY OFFICER AS EDITOR-Y
THE SOCIALISTS SAY THE:CR TWO MINISTERS WILL NOT RETURN TO
THE GOVERNMENT UNTIL THE REVOLUTIONARY COUNCIL CARRIES OUT ITS
PROMISE TO RETURN THE PAPER TO ITS LEGAL OWNERS. THEY HAVE PUT OUT
A COMMUNIQUE SAYING THAT THE ALLIANCE OF PORTUGUESE POLITICAL FORCES
MUST BE BASED ON THE OBSERVANCE OF PACTS SIGNED BY THEM AND UPON
RESPECT "FUR THE PLEDGED WORD." THE CENTER-LEFT POPULAR
-DEMOCRA'T'S REPORTEDLY ARE CONSIDERING PULLING THEIR TWO
MINISTERS OUT OF THE COALITION GOVERNMENT AS WELLY
THE SOCIALIST PARTY HAS THREATENED TO PULL OUT OF THE
GOVERNMENT OVER VARIOUS CONTROVERSIES SINCE LAST JANUARY.
THE ARMED FORCES GENERAL ASSEMBLY'S ANNOUNCED DECISION ON
DATE:
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WEDNESDAY TO CREATE A SYSTEM OF POPULAR ORGANIZATIONS, HOWEVER,
MOVED THE SOCIALISTS INTO MORE OPEN DEFIANCE OF THE ARMED
FORCES MOVEMENT. THE MOVEMENT'S PROPOSALS WERE SEEN BY THE
SOCIALISTS AND OTHER MODERATES AS A THREAT TO BYPASS POLITICAL
PARTIES ALTOGETHER.Y
A DOCUMENT CIRCULATED AMONG SOCIALIST PARTY MEMBERS
YESTERDAY SAID THE SOCIALISTS WOULD NEVER ACCEPT POPULAR
COUNCILS OR ASSEMFLIES CREATED OUTSIDE THE PRESENT PARTY
SYSTEM. THE PARTY BLAMED THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY'S ACTION
ON COMMUNIST INFLUENCE AND URGED SOCIALISTS TO PREPARE FOR
NATIONWIDE DEMONSTRATIONS?Y
THE SOCIALISTS' ANGER WAS AROUSED FURTHER BY A DEMONSTRATION
HELD LAST NIGHT IN FRONT OF THE PRESIDENTIAL PAL. A.C.E. IT WAS
SPONSORED BY THE COMMUNIST-DOMINATED LABOR COWFE:[',:c ATION AND
ATTRACTED AN ESTIMATED 15,00[) WORKERS. BOTH PRIM!:.- MINISTER
GONCALVES AND PRESIDENT COSTA GOMES PRAISED THE ! iROWD FOI
SUPPORTING DISCIPLINE AND ORDER?Y
MEANWHILEz MAJOR CANTO E CASTRO-REGARDED AS A SUPPORTER OF
DATE:
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SECURITY FORCES COMMANDER OTELO DE CARVALHO AND THE LEFTIST
NATIONALIST FACTION-LED AN ATTEMPT TO REMOVE GONCALVES AT A
REVOLUTIONARY COUNCIL MEETING LAST WE1NESDAY. THE ATTEMPT
REPORTEDLY WAS HALTED BY PRESIDENT COSTA GOMES IN AN EFFORT
TO MAINTAIN COHESION WITHIN THE MILITARY LEADERSH:tP.Y
IF THE SOCIALISTS STICK WITH THEIR DECISION TO REMAIN
IN OPEN OPPOSITION TO THE MILITARY GOVERNMENT AN ARE
SUPPORTED BY THE POPULAR DEMOCRATS, THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE LEFT
ALMOST TOTALLY IN THE HANDS or THE MOVEMENT, THE COMMUNISTS, AND THE
COMMUNIST-DOMINATED PORTUGUESE DEMOCRATIC MOVE11Eti'.
MILITARY LEADERS WILL HAVE TO REORGANIZE THE CADIU[.:T, AT
LEAST TO REPLACE THE MINISTERS WHO HAVE RESIGNED. IF A NEW
COALITION CANNOT BE PUT TOGETHEFs, THE MOVEMENT MA`,' ME
INCLINED TO SET UP AN ALL-MILITARY GOVERNMENT TO AVOID
INTERNATIONAL CRITICISM OF A GOVERNMENT SUPPORTS) ONLY BY
THE COMMUNISTS. {CONFIDEWTIAL}Y
2. CZECHOSLOVAKIA: MORE ON SALGOVIC: THE POLI'fICAI. STAR OF
VILIAII SALGOVIC, WHO TWO WEEKS AGO WAS APPOINTED TO THE SLOVAK
DATE:
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PARTY PRESIDIUM {POLITBURO} TO FILL THE VACANCY LEFT DY THE
DEATH OF ONDREJ KLOKOC, HAS EVIDENTLY RISEN FURTHER. ON JULY 7
HE WAS ELECTED THE CHAIRMAN OF THE SLOVAK NATIONAL
COUNCIL--ANOTHER OF KLOKOC'S JODS.Y
IN THE PROCESS, SALGOVIC WAS RELEASED AS HEAD OF
THE SLOVAK PARTY CONTROL AND AUDITING COMf1:CSSION, BUT
THE PROMOTION OF THIS NOTORIOUSLY HARD-I..INF SLOVAK TO
FILL POSTS FORMERLY HELD BY A MODERATE MUST UNSETTLE
MANY SLOVAKS AND CZECHS. INDEED, THE THREE-MONTH DE-
LAY IN PICKING A SUCCESSOR TO KLOKOC SUGGESTS THAT THE
CHOICE OF SALGOVIC WAS PRECEDED by SOME HARD POLITICAL
INFIGHTING-ti'
SOME SOURCES IN PRAGUE ARGUE THAT SALGOVIC LIAS "KICKED
UPSTAIRS" WHEN HE GAVE UP HIS PARTY CONTROL POST FOR THE
LARGELY CEREMONIAL JOB ON THE SLOVAK NATIONAL COUNCIL. THIS
THEORY, HOWEVER, FAILS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE SIGNIFICANCE
OF SALGOVIC'S PROMOTION TO THE SLOVAK PARTY PRES:I DIUM.' HIS
MEMBERSHIP ON THIS TOP POLICY--MAKING EODI' VISIBLY
DATE:
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MILY 1975
INOFII
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MIDDLE EAST AFRICA BRIEF 107-75.Y
J. USSR-SOMALIA: DURING A CONVERSATION luiTH A SENIOR US
OFFIC.AL IN MOGADISCIO ON JULY ?, SOVIET AMBASSADOR SAMSONOV
ADMITTED THAT TI-IEKE IS A MISSILE-HANDLING FACILITY
AT DERBERA. IIE SAID IT WAS FOR SHORT-RANGE MISSILE`
FOR THE SOMALI NAVY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME: A SOVIET
OFFICIAL HAS ACKNOWLEDGED THAT SUCH A FACILITY EXISTS
AT BERBERA.Y
SAMSONOV DID NOT USE THE NATO TERM STYX, ALTHOUGH
IT HAD BEEN USED IN MOSCOW NEWS COMMENTARY REFERRING
TO SECRETARY SCHLESINGER'S TESTIMONY BEFORE THE HOUSE
ARIIED SERVICES COMMITTEE. OTHER SOVIET MILITARY
,CLIENTS-SUCH AS IRAQ AND INDIA-THAT HAVE STYX MISSILES DO
NOT HAVE A MISSILE-HANDLING FACILITY LIKE THE ONE IN
SOMALIA. THE LIFTING AND HANDLING EQUIPMENT IN THE HIGH
BAY BUILDING AT BERBERA IS CAPABLE OF HANDLING IiISS1LES
FAR LARGER THAN THE STYX, OR ANY OTHER MISSILE CONSISTENT
L:IITH SOMALI NEEDS OR CAPABILITIES.'
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U
SAMSONOV MET WITH PRESIDLigT SIAD FOLLOWING SENATOR
BARTLETT'S TOUR OF BERBERA ON JULY 4. HE MAY HAVE PERSUADED
SIAD THAT BARTLETT'S GROUP HAD BEEN ALLOWED TOO EASY ACCESS
TO INSTALLATIONS IN THE AREA, BECAUSE CONGRESSMAN STRATTON'S
TOUR TWO DAYS LATER WAS MORE RES'rRICTED.Y
SAM~ONOV' S ADMISSION MAY BE THE HARBINGER OF A
SHIFT IN MOSCOW'S PRIMARY PUBLIC LINE FROM DENIALS OF
SOVIET BASES TO ASSERTIONS THAT ALL MILITARY FACILITIES
ARE THERE TO SERVE THE SOMALIS. IT ALSO SEE11S TO INDICATE
THAT THE SOMALIS WILL, INDEED, GET PATROL. BOATS FOR THE STYX.Y
THE QLIESTION NOW IS WHETHER AND HOW ALL THE PUBLICITY
WILL AFFECT FLITURE SOVIET USE OF THE FACILITIES. SOVIET
TNVESTl1ENT AT BERBERA IS SIZABLE, AND THE SOVIETS WIL.I_
CURTAIL THEIR OPERATIONS THERE RELUCTANTLY, IF AT ALL.
THEIR INCLINATION PRO[-./ELY L;ILL. BE TO STAY., WITH THE HOPE
THAT THE LJOPS T OF THE EMB/\r RASSL~ENT is BEHIND TLIi.-;1. {SECRET) I,I
2. MALAGASY REPUBLIC: PRESIDENT RATSIRAKA OF THE
f1!.I.r,GA SY i'EPU'!,,LIC TOLD THE US CHARGE YESTERDAY THAT THE NASA
DATE:
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INDEX
NO INDEX
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{CONFIDENTIAL} E-2 IMPDET?r-l
SDO --- DDODO?---
DATE: JULY 1,975
of:IG:
UNIT:
EXT: 19 4 C,
Approved For Release 2001/08/21 : CIA-RDP86T00608R000300010009-0