SELECTED NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES

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CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5
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RIPPUB
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U
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195
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December 21, 2016
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October 8, 2008
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3
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Publication Date: 
October 16, 1984
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MEMO
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Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Dab (Minn. MI-% DCI 07" Initials Deb D 0 (In Turn) FIN Nob and Rat -um For assaince Per Conversation For Correction For Your Information S< Ma lOS1-102 OPTIONAL NM 41 View. 7-76) it GPO : 1983 0 - 381-s29 (301) /pIR~~~lit C~Rf ial-I1.~L Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 6194 Add-on WASHINGTON October 16, 1984 MEMORANDUM FOR THE HONORABLE WILLIAM J. CASEY Director of Central Intelligence SUBJECT: Selected National Security Issues Executive Registry 84. 7027/2 Enclosed are two copies of the September 1984 Selected National Security issues book for your use. The book summarizes our objectives and accomplishments and provides talking points for the specific issues selected. We intend to publish an updated version quarterly. The National Security Council Executive Secretary has a limited number of additional copies. I would appreciate any comments and suggestions you may have to assist us in updating and maintaining this book as a useful aid for dealing with national security issues. Attachment Selected National Security Issues, September 1984 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 SELECTED NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES This is a compilation of selected national security issues, national objectives, Administration accomplishments during the past four years, and key talking points for each issue. We selected these particular issues not only because of their significance in national security affairs, but also because of their high interest. This document is not intended.to be a comprehensive or in-depth review of our national security policy. However, we do hope that it serves a useful purpose by providing insight into our selected national security policies. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Selected National Security Issues September 1984 Table of Contents Page Overview ....................................................1 Regional Issues The Soviet Union .......................................6 Eastern Europe..... ............................ .10 Western Europe ........................................13 Japan .................................................16 Peoples Republic of China .............................18 East Asia/Pacific Basin ...............................20 Israel/Arab States/Lebanon ............................23 Iran-Iraq War .........................................25 Afghanistan/South Asia ................................27 North Africa ..........................................29 Africa: Security .....................................30 Africa: Development ..................................33 Latin America/Caribbean ...............................36 Global Issues International Economics ...............................39 International Energy ..................................43 Terrorism .............................................45 Arms Control ..........................................47 Deterrence ............................................51 Strategic Modernization ...............................52 ICBM Modernization ....................................55 Nuclear-Armed Sea-Launched Cruise missile .............57 Strategic Defense Initiative ..........................59 ASAT Development and Arms Control .....................61 Space. ........................................... ..63 Military Capability/Readiness .........................66 Nuclear Weapons Modernization in NATO .................69 Non-First-Use of Nuclear Weapons ......................71 Technology Transfer...... ........................ ...73 Revitalization of Special Operations Forces ........... 75 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 SELECTED NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES OVERVIEW The two most important foreign policy questions any Administration faces are: o Where does America stand? o What does America stand for? Answers to these were increasingly in doubt in the 70's. They are no longer. By providing clear answers we have helped to make the world a safer place and to keep it safe in the future. The Starting Point Before January 1981, international affairs had come to seem especially troubling for Americans. The reason was simple -- the actions of the Carter Administration had raised doubts, around the world and for our own people, about basic questions like: o military security: Would the U.S. continue to get weaker or regain her strength? o Domestic economy: Would we be able to lick the problem of inflation and low growth? o International economy: Would we continue to work for free trade or retreat into self-defeating protectionism? o Arms control: Would we continue to accept one-sided agreements or insist on equality and real reductions? o Alliances: Would we stand by our friends and be able to get them to follow through on commitments to us? o Regional crises: Would the U.S. continue to lose the influence necessary for promoting regional stability and peace? Was it still better to be a friend of the U.S. than Soviet Union? A President must act. And he must be prepared to give clear answers to these question. He can't expect to protect America's interests by: o Claiming the problems we face are too hard, o Pretending that Cuban troops roaming around the Third World are a "stabilizing" force, o Offering our friends just enough help to fail, or o Settling slowly but surely for second best. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 If this is how we act, it's absolutely clear what we'll get. The Carter Administration claimed the invasion of Afghanistan opened its eyes to the danger of Soviet expansion, but then gave so little help to Pakistan -- the country most threatened by the invasion -- that it was rejected as "peanuts." Nothing isolates ,,America more than weakness and unreliability. Accomplishments The job the American people asked us to do was to rebuild, and make the world a safer place again. This is precisely what we've done. Soviet aggression has not claimed one square inch of territory since 1981. We have made clear and steady progress in reversing the global trends that we inherited. And we have worked to restore the strength on which successful American diplomacy and effective agreements depend: o In Europe we and our allies stood up -- united -- to the most intense campaign of Soviet intimidation in 25 years. o On arms control we've made revolutionary proposals that would really increase everybody's security. o Our own recovery and the strategy we and our allies forged at the Williamsburg summit are helping to revive the international economy. We are showing that it can be done without resorting to trade-war tactics. o In the Middle East, we have presented the most far-reaching peace plan ever put forward by the U.S. And our friends in the region, Israel and the moderate Arabs, again know they can count on us. We are continuing to improve our relations with the moderate Arabs, while simultaneously expanding our security cooperation with Israel. o In Central America, we've met the challenge of military subversion and expansionism. We've helped the first democratic government of El Salvador in years to protect itself; working with Caribbean nations, we helped return the government of Grenada to its people. o In Africa we have been diplomatic mediators, helping to bring about the first non-aggression agreements ever between South Africa and her neighbors, and using our influence to seek solutions to problems rather than confrontation. o We have united the free world against repression in Poland and the Soviet war of conquest in Afghanistan. There is a powerful message in the fact that most of the world's Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 3 insurgencies are now fighting against the Soviet Union or Soviet clients. These are the true national liberation movements of our time. o The President's personal diplomacy has built the best relations our country has ever had with Japan and China. Good relations with each of these Asian powers has not been at the expense of bad relations with the other. We are working with both to improve their ability to defend themselves. o We are reaching out to all friendly nations of the Pacific Basin, to seek enhanced economic and security ties Th this dynamic region so vital to America's future. o We have made dramatic progress in working with others to curb the read of nuclear weapons to new states and to unstable regions of the world. o We no longer fear energy shortages -- oil imports are way down, our reserves are high, and we've forged effective emergency energy agreements with our allies. o We have taken control of the tide of strategic technology to the USSR, eliminated preferential credit terms for the Soviets, and reduced the risk of European dependence on Soviet energy. This is where America stands. And because what we have achieved is ideep and durable, it opens the door to still broader opportunities in the years ahead.' Next Steps: Looking Ahead America is stronger today than four years ago. But we didn't restore our strength for strength's sake. What America stands for is what it should always stand for -- peace, prosperity and democracy. And it has to do more than treat these as slogans -- it has to know what it takes to get there, and have the vision to set bold goals. We've shown we can do that, but the American people deserve to know what the agenda for the next four years will be. Peace. We are all for peace. Our people are entitled to security. The question is how to turn rhetoric into results. -- Conduct relations with the Soviet Union based on strict reciprocity and true restraint. Seek and achieve Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 4 agreements based on real reductions in nuclear forces. Our proposals are still on the table; we encourage the Soviets to come back. -- Affirm our long-term commitment to reduce mankind's terrible reliance on nuclear weapons, by exploring the ti technology of strategic defense, and by improving the conventional capabilities of this country and our allies. -- Seek immediate breakthroughs in other areas where peace is at risk: e.g., preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons to new countries, turning back the tide of international terrorism, resolving dangerous regional wars, and showing countries that have looked to the Soviet Union the viability of the democratic, free enterprise alternative. Prosperity. Stirrings in the international economy reflect our own vibrant blip? recovery. How to assure that this is not just a Continue the responsible policies at home that have put us back on our feet. This is central to worldwide growth, but also to other goals. The discipline we showed in attacking problems has increased confidence in America across the board. This can be the basis of a second goal: reaching and implementing a world consensus on free market policies to assure an enduring economic recovery. In particular, focus on liberalized trade and financial stability. Put the protectionist temptation behind us. An open world economy is the best -- only -- way to sustain a recovery in which whole world participates. We want to get others to "swear off" too by reducing barriers to investment, etc. Solve the international debt problem in a way that treats the disease not just the symptoms. We are already helping democratic friends like Mexico and Argentina work their way out of their crisis, and on conditions that will require responsible economic management in the future. Democracy. America believes in a future of democratic possibilities, and knows that in the long run democracy is the best peace program we have to offer. Progress -- 90% of Latin America's people now live in countries that are democratic or on Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 5 a transition timetable. And countries that seemed to have no hope of democracy -- like Argentina and Guatemala -- have made major breakthroughs. o Goals: ti -- Make the Americas the hemisphere of democracy in this decade. The steadiness of this Administration's policies is one part of making this possible. The recommendations of the bipartisan Kissinger Commission on Central America must be a further pledge to this process. Issue the challenge of democracy to nations around the world, doing what we can to encourage trends toward democracy and to discourage those who would repress their people or help others whose formula for government is repression instead of democracy. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 6 REGIONAL ISSUES SOVIET UNION Issue: How can the United States further deter Soviet direct and indirect aggression and reduce the risk of a U.S.-Soviet war? Objectives: o Reduce, and eventually eliminate, the use and threat of force in solving international disputes; o Reduce the vast stockpiles of weapons in the world, particularly nuclear weapons, on a balanced, stabilizing, and verifiable basis; o Establish a better working relationship with the Soviet Union, one marked by greater cooperation and under- standing; and o Deter Soviet aggression and to facilitate negotiation of agreements which would reduce tension and diminish the threat of war. In pursuing these objectives, our approach is based on three guiding principles: o Realism, which means that we must recognize the nature of the world we live in and the Soviet system, and must not sweep problems under the rug, but must deal with them forthrightly. o Strength, which is more than military power; it is an amalgam of political unity and will, economic health, and an adequate defense. The Soviet Union respects strength; it takes advantage of weakness. o Dialogue, which means that we are prepared to discuss the problems that divide us and to work for practical and fair solutions on the basis of mutual compromise. Accomplishments: o The world is safer today than it was four years ago. Our ability to deter aggression is being restored, and the growing tide of Soviet direct and indirect aggression we saw in the 1970's has receded. o Our global alliances and traditional friendships, essential to deterring Soviet aggression, have been repaired and are sound. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 o The Soviet Union has also avoided actions which could cause direct conflict between us as opposed to what happened, for instance, in 1973, when Soviet preparations to intervene directly in the Middle East caused us to go on a world-wide strategic alert. NATO's call for the deployment of INF missiles in Europe to counter the threat of the Soviet SS-20's is a case in point. o we have placed far-reaching and ambitious arms reduction proposals on the table. o we have moved to place our working relationship on a more businesslike footing, and to increase contacts between our societies. o we have made it clear that our cooperation with the Soviet Union will depend to a great extent on Soviet compliance with existing agreements; including those on arms control, human rights, and other major issues. o We have established a pattern of consultation on regional issues. Despite our fundamental disagreements on many of these, consultations help us and the Soviets to avoid actions which could escalate into direct conflict. o We have in place a policy designed for the long term, since management of our relations with the Soviet Union must be steady and must avoid the rapid fluctuations of the past, which weakened our ability to defend our interests. It is based upon a realistic assessment of the Soviet Union, and on the recognition that we must preserve peace between us as we work toward solving problems. Talking Points: o Our policy vis-a-vis the Soviet Union is aimed at achieving a lessened reliance on the use or threat of force, a reduction in nuclear and other armaments, and a more constructive U.S.-Soviet working relationship. We also seek to deter further Soviet direct and indirect aggression in the world. o During the 1970's the USSR increased its military power far beyond its defensive needs and used force and the implied application of force to expand its control over other countries. o Either directly or through surrogates the Soviets have supported the establishment of communist regimes in Africa (Angola, Ethiopia), in Asia (Vietnam, Kampuchea and Laos), in Latin America and the Caribbean (Nicaragua, El Salvador and Grenada), and blatantly invaded a neutral country (Afghanistan). They turned Communist Cuba into a base for Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 8 aggression in Latin America and Africa. At the same time, they are attempting to undermine NATO by deploying SS-20 nuclear missiles against Western Europe. o This pattern of aggression not only poses a threat to many independent nations, but ultimately to American security and to the American way of life. o During the same period, the Soviet Union reached nuclear parity with us, and in some areas pulled ahead of us, in some aspects of strategic nuclear capabilities and particularly in conventional armaments. o This Administration has moved decisively to contain Soviet expansionism. No country has fallen to Soviet aggression since 1981 and, despite its frequent saber-rattling and truculence, Moscow has been more cautious in its military behavior over the past four years. This is largely due to our refurbishing of our deterrent capacity and strengthening of our alliances. o At the same time, we have created a sound basis for realistic and peaceful management of our overall relationship with the Soviet Union. In the past four years, the United States has made dozens of specific proposals to the Soviet Union which, if accepted, would reduce tensions, lower arms levels and provide for a better and more realistic working relationship. o We have agreed to upgrade the "hotline" for crisis communications between our capitals. o We are discussing extending our agreements on avoiding incidents at sea and on cooperation in fishing. o We have proposed reviving agreements on cooperation in environmental protection, housing, health, and agriculture. o we have renewed our agreement on consular, economic, industrial, and technical cooperation. o We have proposed conducting a joint simulated space rescue mission. o We are discussing again the proposal to open consulates in New York and Kiev. o We are negotiating to resolve differences on our maritime boundary off Alaska. o We are proposing to discuss new uses of the hotline, search and rescue procedures for those lost at sea, and joint military and diplomatic communications. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 9 o While Moscow has refused since December 1983 to negotiate with us on reducing nuclear arms, we believe that it is in the interest of both countries to negotiate verifiable agreements for lower arms levels, and to improve our relationship in other respects. We will continue our ti efforts, and believe that the Soviet leadership will eventually come to understand that such negotiations are in its interest as well. o Until the Soviets agree to real arms reductions, it is essential for us to continue our currently planned defense modernization program. If this program is curtailed without verifiable agreements to constrain threatening Soviet programs, the Soviet leaders will have little incentive to negotiate, but will simply wait in the hope of achieving their objectives without any concessions on their part. o The Soviets have effectively exploited Western strategic technology to modernize their military capabilities. Our own modernization program is based on achieving conventional deterrence through technological superiority, rather than numerical equality. We will continue our determined efforts to stem the flow of strategic technology to the Soviets to ensure that we derive the maximum deterrent value from our modernization program. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 10 EASTERN EUROPE Issue: Given U.S.-Soviet tensions and the Soviet campaign to reimpose more stringent controls on Eastern Europe, how ti can we maintain and improve our relations with East European countries? Objectives: o Differentiate our policies toward East European countries to encourage domestic liberalization, diversity, and more autonomous foreign policies. o Promote security through enhanced trade, economic and political cooperation. o With those countries that manifest foreign policy autonomy or domestic liberalization, stimulate and further develop the East-West dialogue through cultural and scientific exchanges, international meetings, high-level visits, bilateral councils, and government-to-government contacts. o Help foster genuine national reconciliation in Poland that includes dialogue among the Government, Church, and the people (especially the Polish workforce); restoration of free trade unions; implementation of economic reform; and an enhanced role for the Church. o maintain our strong support for an independent, unified, non-aligned, economically viable, and stable Yugoslavia. Accomplishments: o In spite of U.S.-Soviet tensions and tighter Soviet controls in East Europe, we have succeeded in preventing the deterioration of U.S. relations with several East European countries and, in fact, have strengthened bilateral ties with Hungary and Romania through a policy of differentiation. o We have improved U.S.-Hungarian relations significantly, as manifested in a series of mutual high-level visits, resolution of all family reunification cases, Hungary's adherence to the conditions of MFN status, and our support for their membership in the IMF in 1982. o We have improved the special U.S.-Romanian relationship through frequent exchanges and mutually beneficial political and economic steps. Romania has continued its independent foreign policy -- most visibly in its criticism of Moscow's new nuclear deployments and its decision to ignore the Soviet Olympic boycott. Also, by Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 11 establishing the U.S.-Romanian Human Rights Roundtable, we have been able to communicate successfully the importance we attach to immigration and overall human rights issues. o The vice President's trip to Eastern Europe in September 1983 served as a visible manifestation of our ti differentiation policy and furthered bilateral dialogue with key East European leaders. His visits to Yugoslavia, Romania, and Hungary provided a foundation for durable improvement in U.S.-East European relations, and his speech in Vienna during the trip was the first clear, high-level articulation of our differentiation policy. o Our sanctions policy toward Poland has contributed to the recent moderation displayed by Warsaw (the declaration of amnesty for all political prisoners); has served and will continue to serve as an effective lever to encourage the Polish Government toward more concrete progress (economic reform, restoration of free trade unions, etc.); and has also enabled us to respond to positive measures taken by the Polish Government with equally significant steps. o Over the last three years, we have provided over $100 million in humanitarian aid to Poland. Specifically, the Administration has assisted voluntary agencies (CRS, CARE, and Project Hope) by providing food, medicine and other humanitarian aid to the Polish people through non-governmental channels. o We have bolstered our bilateral relations with Yugoslavia through such steps as' the multilateral "Friends of Yugoslavia" economic assistance package in which the U.S. played a key role; and hosting the visit of President Spiljak to the U.S. in 1984 -- the first top-level Yugoslav visit to the U.S. since 1978. Talking Points: o We have successfully maintained, through our policy of differentiation, good bilateral relations with several East European countries, despite overall East-West tensions and persistent Soviet efforts to tighten political controls. o We have rejected any notion of there having been a "lawful" division of Europe. There was no agreement at Yalta to divide Europe into "spheres of influence." Rather, the Soviet Union pledged itself to grant full independence to Poland and other states in East Europe, and to hold free elections. The Soviet violation of these obligations is a root cause of East-West tensions today. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 12 o Our strong economic recovery has enabled us to support some East European (Yugoslavia, Romania, Hungary) efforts to resolve short-term liquidity problems and implement long-term economic reform and stabilization efforts. o With respect to Poland, we have maintained, a measured, effective step-by-step approach under which we are easing our sanctions in direct response to meaningful liberalization measures taken by the Polish Government. We have also provided humanitarian aid through non-governmental channels (totaling over $100 million) over the last three years. It is essential that the regime move toward genuine dialogue and reconciliation with all elements of Polish society, including the workforce. o With respect to Yugoslavia, we have maintained good relations through high-level visits, continued bilateral trade and mutually beneficial commercial activity. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 13 WESTERN EUROPE How can the United States most effectively expand and strengthen our longstanding and deep political, economic, and military ties with and interests in Western Europe? Objectives: o Strengthen the NATO Alliance and our political and military relations with other Western European nations. o Neutralize Soviet efforts to decouple the U.S. from its West European Allies. o Make effective and meaningful arms control an essential element in strengthening peace and security. o Stimulate further the economic recovery of our European Allies and friends. o Promote closer U.S.-West European coordination of trade and financial policies. o Ensure that we and our Allies have access to sufficient energy supplies to meet Western security needs. o Curb the flow of militarily significant technologies, products, and resources from the West to the Soviet Union and its Allies. o Devise an effective U.S.-Allied policy to combat international terrorism. Accomplishments: o The Administration has put relations with our European friends and Allies on a stronger and steadier course. This was partly accomplished via frequent meetings between the President and key European leaders, including two Presidential trips to Europe. o We have worked closely with our Allies to develop coordinated policies for addressing problems beyond the NATO area. This has included especially close consultations with regard to the Middle East and the Iran-Iraq war, where we have reached agreement within the International Energy Agency on how to handle a major reduction in oil supplies. This has helped to calm the oil market and keep the price of oil down. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 14 o In the absence of an arms control agreement, we have begun deploying INF missiles in Europe, thereby shoring up the deterrent whose credibility was being called into question by Soviet deployments of SS-20 missiles and other significant force improvements. Q INF deployment, begun after the closest and most intensive consultations in NATO history, has helped neutralize Soviet efforts to decouple the U.S. from Europe and has sent Moscow a strong signal of Alliance resolve and solidarity. o At the same time, we and our Allies remain fully committed toward achieving significant arms reduction. The Alliance recently demonstrated its continuing interest in moving in this direction by deciding unilaterally to withdraw an additional 1400 nuclear warheads from Europe. o We have played a major role in developing measures to improve NATO's conventional defenses through better utilization of emerging technologies and enhanced arms cooperation, as in the U.S.-FRG Patriot program. o The Administration has successfully renewed military basing agreements with Spain, Portugal, and Greece that are vital to our deterrence strategy. o The U.S. economic recovery has helped stimulate robust non-inflationary economic growth in West European countries. (European economies grew 2.4% in 1983; the forecast for 1984 is .4.5%.') o Agreement has been reached to discuss GATT and a new round of trade negotiations, including trade with and among developing countries. These initiatives will strengthen the economic expansion in the U.S. and Western Europe, and help spread the recovery to the LDCs. o Together with our Allies, we have begun to develop a comprehensive approach to resolving the world debt problem. o We have agreed with our Allies not to subsidize the Soviet economy or aid Soviet military expansion by offering preferential trading terms or easy credits. o We have agreed with our Allies to restrict the flow of products, materials, and technology which would increase Warsaw Pact military capabilities. o We have helped to foster a more balanced and realistic understanding among our Allies of the Soviet threat and the means by which the Soviets seek to achieve their aims. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 15 o We have agreed with the Europeans on a strategy to reduce European dependency on the Soviet Union as an energy supplier. o We have reached agreement with our Allies to explore the possibility of a joint space station. _ S o We have agreed with our Allies on concrete steps to combat international terrorism. Talking Points: o Our objectives in our relations with our Western European Allies and friends have been to expand and strengthen our political, economic, and military cooperation; to assist in spurring their economic recovery; and to negate Soviet efforts to sow discord among us. o The western Alliance system has become strong again. we have excellent relations with all of our Allies, and President Reagan has developed strong personal ties with many European leaders. As President Reagan said when he met with the NATO Foreign Ministers in May 1984, "For us, our NATO partnership is an anchor, a fixed point in a turbulent world." o We are working closely with our Allies in a number of areas of fundamental importance to us all. These include: the pursuit of peace and arms control with the Soviet Union; planning cooperative responses to a possible oil shortage; resolving- the' world debt problem; restricting the flow of sensitive technology to the Soviet Union and its Allies; reducing European dependency on Soviet energy; exploring the possibility of a joint space station; and combating international terrorism. o The Alliance is in fundamental agreement regarding the nature of the challenge posed by the Soviet Union and its Allies. Despite Soviet threats, NATO is deploying INF missiles to counter the SS-20 deployments, has reached a new consensus on preventing the flow of militarily significant technologies to the East, and has undertaken a program to enhance NATO's conventional defense capability. o The U.S. economic expansion has provided the impetus for robust non-inflationary growth in West Europe. Other joint initiatives, designed to eliminate protectionist tendencies and promote trade with developed as well as less-developed nations, will continue to strengthen the economic expansion in the U.S. and West Europe and help spread the recovery to the LDCs. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 16 Issue: How should the United States manage the increasingly complex relationship with Japan? Objectives: o Maintain and strengthen our excellent bilateral relations. o Encourage Tokyo to meet its declared commitments for self-defense. o Continue to manage our economic and trade relations in a careful and sustained manner. o Enhance our ability to compete openly with the Japanese in high-technology. o Seek Japanese support for our key security and other policies in other parts of the world. o Urge Japan to import more U.S. energy. Accomplishments: o The President and Prime Minister Nakasone have established a close personal working relationship which has led to increased U.S.-Japanese, cooperation in economic and security areas. o In the trade area, Japan has liberalized its market to enable greater import of U.S. goods, including beef and citrus. o The Japanese have faithfully abided by the voluntary auto restraint agreement, limiting their export of automobiles to the U.S. o The President and Prime Minister Nakasone have agreed to a long term energy cooperation program which will mean thousands of newly created U.S. jobs and greater security for both nations. o The Finance ministers of each country have endorsed a plan to further open Japanese financial markets, which, by "internationalizing" the yen, should improve the yen-dollar relationship over the longer term. o In the defense area, Japan has agreed to an expanded defense role which, if carried out, will aid global and regional deterrence. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 17 Talking Points: o The U.S.-Japan relationship remains the foundation of U.S. policy in the Pacific. o The President's trip to Japan in November 198.3 and the Vice President's follow-up in May 1984 strengthened U.S.- Japanese ties and the partnership for peace existing between our two countries. o Japan has opened further its trading and financial markets, has committed itself to importing more energy from the United States over the longer-term, and has agreed to increase its regional defense expenditures. o We are pleased that the Japanese have allocated more funds to improve their defense establishment, and that they have committed themselves to pursue more market-opening measures. Nonetheless, Japan has an obligation to take on even greater responsibility in both the military and international economic areas. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 18 PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA How can the United States facilitate continued, steady improvement in a long-term relationship with China? ti Objectives: o Provide conditions conducive to continued growth in our cultural, economic, and trade relations. o Increase our dialogue with Beijing on political and strategic matters of joint concern. o Demonstrate to the Chinese the similarity of our global objectives. o Enhance our mutually beneficial relationship with China without compromising our moral and legal commitments to the people of Taiwan. Accomplishments: o The highly successful visits of Premier Zhao to the U.S. and President Reagan to China reflect both countries' strong determination to improve their ties. o Over the past three years, we have signed a number of agreements which will lead to expanded commercial and cultural ties, including most recently a tax treaty, which will avoid double taxation and facilitate joint commercial ventures, and a protocol on cooperation management, industrial science, and technology. o The U.S. has liberalized controls over exporting high- technology products such as computers and laboratory instruments to China. o The U.S. and China have begun a limited but important cooperative relationship designed to strengthen Chinese military defensive capability. o The U.S. welcomed the Chinese to the 1984 Olympics after a hiatus of 32 years, along with a team representing the People of Taiwan. Talking Points: o With Premier Zhao's visit to the U.S. last January and the President's return visit to China in April, we have shown the world how important the relationship is to both countries and how determined Washington and Beijing are to Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 19 strengthen it. Under President Reagan's leadership, our ties with China have become closer than they have been at any time since our re-establishment of relations in 1972. o We are realistic about our relationship, frankly acknowledging the fundamental differences in ideology and ti institutions between our two societies. We do not minimize our differences, but neither are we dominated by them. o We seek to enhance our mutually beneficial relationship with China in the areas of cultural, economic and trade relations, without compromising our moral and legal commitments to the people of Taiwan. o U.S.-Chinese cooperation and understanding contribute to peace and stability in Asia and in the world. We share many of the same foreign policy objectives. We have begun a limited but important cooperative arrangement designed to strengthen Chinese defensive capability. o President Reagan feels that bilateral progress in five areas -- trade, technology, investment, student exchanges, and exchanges of scientific and managerial expertise is particularly promising in assisting China's modernization efforts. o Our trade with each other shows great promise for the future, particularly in areas such as machinery, technology, oil equipment, petroleum, agricultural, and manufacturing products. o Americans have invested almost $700 million in joint ventures and offshore oil exploration in China, making the U.S. China's largest foreign investor. Some 50 Chinese firms have established offices or branches in the United States, and China has invested in several joint ventures in the U.S. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 20 EAST ASIA/PACIFIC BASIN What should the United States do to facilitate the growth of secure, prosperous, and politically stable nations, closely associated with U.S. principles and goals, in Korea, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Basin? Objectives: o Continue developing a comprehensive Pacific Basin development strategy that will enhance regional cooperation with the U.S. throughout the area. o Support the continued strengthening of U.S. economic, political, and security ties with the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). o Deter North Korean aggression by continuing to provide a U.S. force presence as well as security assistance to the Republic of Korea. o Encourage direct talks between North and South Korea while discouraging efforts to involve the U.S. in them. o Resolve the Southeast Asia POW/MIA issue as a matter of the highest national priority. o Maintain our historically close ties with Australia and New Zealand and enhance regional security cooperation under the ANZUS treaty organization. o Encourage the development of friendly, democratic Pacific Island nations with foreign policies supportive of U.S. interests. Accomplishments: o The President's trips to Asia in 1983 and 1984, the Vice President's trip last May, and Secretary Shultz's visit this summer clearly affirmed our commitment to a policy of close cooperation with the countries of the region. o We have moved well along with our friends and Allies in the region in the process of forging a Pacific Basin development strategy. The endeavor was discussed regionally for the first time at ASEAN's July meeting in Jakarta, where the members agreed to concentrate first on human resources development throughout the area. o We have actively supported the economic development of the ASEAN countries and have established excellent bilateral relations with each of them. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 21 o U.S.-Korean relations are excellent, security ties have never been stronger, and our expanding economic relationship is taking on increasing significance. o This Administration has established close personal ties at all levels with Australian and New Zealand officials. o Bilateral treaties of friendship with four Pacific nations the Cook Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, and New Zealand (for Tokelan) -- were signed by the President and ratified by the Senate. The treaties resolve long-standing conflicting territorial claims and preserve U.S. fishing rights and other interests. Talking Points: o The nations of the Pacific Basin represent the most dynamic and fastest-growing economies in the Free World. The President has noted that: "I see America and our Pacific neighbors as nations of the future going forward together in a mighty enterprise to build dynamic growth economies and a safer world." o We have strongly supported ASEAN's economic and political activities and have simultaneously increased our security cooperation with the individual member states. We have encouraged the ASEAN countries to continue their forward- looking economic policies based on free trade. We are encouraging increased U.S. trade and investment in the region. o We are supporting ASEAN nations in forging a Pacific Basin development concept. o The U.S. strongly backs ASEAN's quest for a negotiated settlement in Kampuchea. At the same time we have made it clear that the POW/MIA matter remains the most important bilateral issue between ourselves and Vietnam. This issue must be fully resolved to our satisfaction before there can be any discussion of normalizing our relations with Hanoi. o The United States will maintain its security commitments to the Republic of Korea. We will continue, however, to urge North and South Korea to ease tensions through bilateral negotiations. o We conducted a major review of the ANZUS Treaty in 1983 when a new government came to power in Australia. The review reaffirmed the organization's relevance and Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 22 importance to the security of all three partners. That relevance and importance is unaffected, we believe, by changes in the political parties exercising. power in any of the member countries. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 23 ISRAEL/ARAB STATES/LEBANON How can the United States effectively improve prospects for a lasting peace between Israel and her-Arab neighbors and assist Lebanon in attaining unity and stability? Objectives: o Resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict through a just and lasting settlement, achieved by direct negotiations among the parties to the conflict. o Facilitate the improvement of relations between Egypt and Israel in accordance with their peace treaty. o Ensure the security of Israel within defensible and recognized international borders. o Expand U.S. relations with selected Arab states. o Support the development of a strong, independent central government in Lebanon. o Obtain the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon. Accomplishments: o The United States took the lead in setting up the Multinational Force' and Observers in the Sinai. The success of this venture made it possible to return the Sinai to Egypt. o The President's peace initiative of September 1, 1982 set forth a balanced set of positions which the parties to the Arab-Israeli conflict know the U.S. will stand by as soon as negotiations are resumed. o The agreement of May 17, 1983 providing for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon, although since abrogated by Lebanon under Syrian pressure, was achieved as the result of strenuous efforts by the United States. o We did the right thing by'pursuing our peacekeeping effort in Lebanon which helped preserve a relative peace for almost fifteen months and reduced the daily slaughter of innocent civilians. o The presence of our Marines and the Multinational Force in Beirut also gave the government of President Amin Gemayel a sorely needed opportunity to organize and reduce the fighting in his country. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 24 o At the request of the Government of Egypt, we assisted -- in cooperation with other western nations -- in mine-clearing operations in the Gulf of Suez following the mining of this vital waterway by an unknown party. We also assisted the Saudi Government in like manner in their waters near Jidda and Yanbu. We reached agreement with Israel late last year to set up a Joint Political Military Group to plan and coordinate strategic cooperation and to begin negotiations leading to the establishment of a free trade area. We continue to make progress on both fronts. Talking Points: o Israel and her Arab neighbors have been in conflict since the State of Israel was founded in 1948. Ever since that time, it has been our policy both to help Israel survive and defend itself and to work with Israel and the Arab States to help them resolve their differences peacefully. This Administration has reaffirmed and re-emphasized these two key aspects of our overall Middle East policy while attempting to help both parties understand that U.S. security cooperation with them is essential to achieve our mutual goal of peace in the region. o As a nation, we have invested a great deal in working for peace in the Middle East. Although not all these investments have yet paid tangible dividends, they serve to demonstrate our deep interest in helping bring peace, freedom, and prosperity td all the peoples of the region. o American-Israeli relations have been on the upswing. Cooperation between us reached a new high level when we agreed at the time of Prime Minister Shamir's visit here last November to work closely together against Soviet intervention in the region and to establish a free trade area. o Israel faces serious economic problems that only she, through serious efforts of economic discipline, can solve, but we will support those efforts. o We support Lebanese efforts to obtain the withdrawal of all foreign forces from their country. We believe that any settlement between Lebanon and Israel should be reached through direct negotiations and should ensure the security of Israel's northern border while respecting Lebanese sovereignty. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 25 IRAN-IRAQ WAR How can the United States contribute to international efforts to improve the security of the Persian Gulf region? Objectives: o Support diplomatic efforts to end the Iran-Iraq war and prevent its spread to the Persian Gulf and other countries. o Assist our friends in the Gulf to meet their legitimate self-defense needs in the event that the Iran-Iraq conflict expands. o Eliminate Soviet opportunities to exploit the conflict and further destabilize the region. o Ensure that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to international shipping. o Maintain our current state of military readiness to deter, and if necessary, defend against possible escalation of the conflict, thereby reducing the threat to non-belligerent oil and shipping interests. o Continue to urge. our Allies and regional states to cooperate in the event' of a crisis to avoid panic oil-buying and subsequent oil price increases and shortages. Accomplishments: o By providing U.S. AWACS aircraft and surface-to-air missile systems to Saudi Arabia, we have demonstrated to our friends in the Gulf that we are committed to helping them meet their legitimate self-defense needs. o By encouraging restraint by both combatants, by not supplying arms to either side, and by discouraging the sale of military equipment to Iran by Western suppliers, we have helped prevent a widening of the war. o In response to instability in the Persian Gulf, the U.S. has led a process within the International Energy Agency to improve international energy emergency preparedness. An IEA decision (July, 1984) calls for a coordinated stock draw in the event of a crisis coupled with other measures (demand restraint, increases in indigenous production) to Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 26 avoid a rush to the spot market. In addition, all nations which do not have adequate stocks have agreed to make best efforts to increase them. o The Soviets have not yet improved their position in this important region. _ Talking Points: o The United States is and has been concerned about this four-year-old conflict because it threatens the security of the other states in the Persian Gulf and the flow of Gulf oil to the West. o We support efforts to prevent a widening of the Gulf War and to bring about a negotiated settlement. We have worked closely with our Allies in efforts to contain the conflict and to prepare for any temporary disruption of the flow of oil from the region. o We are committed to helping our friends in the Gulf meet their legitimate self-defense needs and to help keep the Gulf open to the shipping of non-belligerents. o We are attempting -- so far successfully -- to avoid direct Soviet or other external involvement that would further destabilize the region. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 AFGHANISTAN/SOUTH ASIA What should the United States do to help end the Soviet military occupation of Afghanistan, enhance 'Pakistani security against external aggression, and encourage peaceful relations among all South Asian nations? Objectives: o Support U.N. resolutions calling for Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. o Assist in obtaining the restoration of Afghanistan's neutral and non-aligned status, self-determination for the Afghan people, and the opportunity for Afghan refugees to return home in peace, freedom, and honor. o Improve bilateral relations with all South Asian countries. o Promote regional understanding and cooperation in order to reduce the possibility of an all-out arms buildup, especially in nuclear weaponry, in the area. o Assist Pakistan to remain free and secure despite the threats posed by the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Accomplishments: o We have helped keep the issue of Soviet aggression in Afghanistan before world public opinion; there is overwhelming international condemnation of Soviet behavior there. o The United States has contributed heavily to the support of the 3.4 million Afghan refugees who have fled their homeland; we are the largest contributor to the refugee relief effort in Pakistan. o We have been in the forefront of those nations encouraging a political settlement that would allow the Soviets to withdraw from Afghanistan. o Thanks largely to the provision of $3.2 billion in American aid, Pakistan's security has been enhanced. o We have enhanced our commercial relationship with India and have generally improved bilateral relations with all South Asian countries. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 28 Talking Points: o U.S. policy on South Asia has focused on seeking an end to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, strengthening Pakistan's security against potential Soviet aggression and, promoting regional South Asian peace and understanding. o Our position on Afghanistan has been shared by 117 nations which have consistently voted with us on UN General Assembly resolutions regarding Afghanistan. We have also helped promote the search for peace by supporting Pakistan's efforts to seek a political solution to the Afghan dilemma through the good offices of the UN Secretary General. o Our observance of Afghanistan Day has helped international efforts to keep the Afghan issue in the spotlight. o We have made a strong commitment to help Pakistan protect itself, providing it with $3.2 billion over the next several years in economic and military assistance. o We have worked through the International Atomic Energy Agency and other organizations to reduce chances of nuclear weapons proliferation into the region. o We have conducted a dialogue at the Head of State level with India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh in the last three years. Our contacts have also continued at other levels. o We have encouraged South Asian countries in general, and India and Pakistan in particular, to develop strong and peaceful relations. o We have supported efforts to improve regional ties such as the South Asia Regional Cooperation forum. We see these efforts as being the best way to build future stability in the area. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 29 NORTH AFRICA What can the United States do to help curb Libyan aggression and terrorism in North Africa and facilitate ti the resolution of the Western Sahara conflict? Objectives: o Pressure Libya, through cooperative measures with our friends and allies, to stop using terrorist tactics and military aggression abroad. o Support negotiations aimed at resolving the Western Sahara dispute. o Develop further our commercial ties with Morocco and Tunisia to help these two states economically. o Foster improved relations with Algeria. o Support efforts at rapprochement by the Maghreb states. Accomplishments: o Measures have already been agreed upon with our Allies to contain Libyan terrorism and aggression. U.S. and Allied assistance to Chad and Sudan has helped blunt Libyan destabilization efforts in the region. o Relations with Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria have never been better. Talking Points: o Libyan-sponsored terrorism poses a direct threat to Libya's North African neighbors as well as to many other states. We vigorously oppose such acts and are joining with our friends and Allies in doing everything we can to curtail these activities. o The long struggle between Morocco and the Polisario over control of the Western Sahara remains unresolved. We support efforts to get the contending parties to negotiate an end to the conflict and endorse the resolutions of the Nairobi OAU summits of 1981 and 1982 which specify that the solution to the conflict should include a cease-fire preceding a referendum as an expression of self-determination. o We have improved our relations with Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria and stand ready to assist them in meeting the problems that they face. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 30 AFRICA: SECURITY How can the United States respond most effectively to requests from friendly African states- for help in resisting outside aggression and promoting peaceful solutions to local conflicts? Objectives: o Increase security assistance on a selective basis to those countries under threat of external aggression. o Promote the peaceful resolution of local and regional conflicts through diplomatic means. o Continue working for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the southern African region as part of our multifaceted initiative to create a security framework under which all states of the region can live in peace. Accomplishments: o We have blunted the Soviet projection of power in Africa. No sizable new influx of Soviet or surrogate forces has occurred, and Moscow has gained no new African allies since 1981. Mozambique and other African governments allied with the Soviets in the 1970's have begun dialogues with us and have moved away from Soviet influence toward genuine non-alignment. o We have been a catalyst facilitating the peaceful resolution of local disputes. Specific examples include the improvement in relations between Kenya and Somalia, the March 1984 non-aggression pact between South Africa and Mozambique, and the February 1984 agreement providing for disengagement and withdrawal of South African forces from Angola. o Timely U.S. security assistance and military air deployments helped counter Libyan aggression in Chad and Sudan in 1983 and helped Somalia stop an armed incursion from Soviet-aligned Ethiopia in 1982. o We have obtained agreement by all parties on implementation of the UN plan for Namibia, pending only Angolan agreement on Cuban troop withdrawal. We have established a reputation as an honest broker in our diplomatic work on this most difficult of Africa's problems. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 31 o We have played a quiet but vital part in bringing about general diminution of cross-border violence in southern Africa. o We have been encouraging South Africa to take constructive steps away from apartheid toward true democracy. We have ti begun programs of support to black trade unions, begun an important effort to provide scholarships to black South African students, and have undertaken a program of financial support to human rights organizations in South Africa. Talking Points: o The United States has a significant geopolitical and strategic stake in the security of the African continent and the seas around it. Our interests are seriously affected when Soviets, Cubans, and Libyans seek to expand their influence in the region by force or by exploitation of instability. o The late 1970's saw Africa become increasingly exploited by the Soviet Union and its allies. Violence in southern Africa and the Horn of Africa was escalating, insurgencies were growing in eight African countries, and cross-border armed raids by opposition groups were occurring elsewhere on the continent. Feeding on these conflicts, the Soviet Union poured almost $5 billion in arms into Ethiopia, Angola, and Mozambique and fielded almost 5,000 military "advisors" in Africa. Two Cuban expeditionary forces, totaling almost 40;000 combat troops, were garrisoned in Ethiopia and Angola. Libyan-sponsored subversion against neighboring African states was on the increase and in 1980-81 a Libyan military force of 8,000 occupied Chad. o Thanks in large part to U.S. policies and efforts in the area, the Soviets have added no new national converts in Africa since 1981 nor have they dispatched new surrogate troop contingents to Africa. Several African governments which were counted as Soviet allies in 1980 have moved toward a real non-alignment. o U.S. military assistance to Africa has increased from $94.7 million (FY 81 actual) to $211.6 million (FY 85 request). The bulk of the program has been converted to grant aid in recognition of the difficult economic situations of the recipients. We nonetheless have maintained a 4:1 ratio of economic assistance to security assistance in Africa in recognition of the fundamental security role economic stability and progress plays. o There has been a significant increase in dialogue among neighboring states in southern Africa. This process has led, with the U.S. acting as a catalyst, to a Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 non-aggression pact between South African and Mozambique in March 1984 and a landmark force disengagement agreement between South Africa and Angola formalized in Lusaka in February 1984. o We have undertaken a special regional security initiative 00 for southern Africa. Specific components include a complex diplomatic initiative to lead to an internationally recognized settlement of the Namibia problem and Namibian independence; support for regional economic development; withdrawal of foreign forces from the area; and support for peaceful progress in ending apartheid in South Africa. o There is a growing dynamic for change in South Africa and the last few years have seen important, fundamental changes: institutionalization of black trade unions, legitimization of black residence in urban areas, the enfranchisement of coloreds and Asians, major increases in expenditures for black education, and the beginning of black municipal and local self-government. We have played a quiet but real part in encouraging and facilitating such constructive forces for peaceful, positive change and movement away from racial segregation, separation, and discrimination. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 33 AFRICA: DEVELOPMENT What should the United States do to help African countries come to grips with their critical economic and developmental problems? Objectives: o Work with other nations and organizations to combat famine by providing food relief assistance. o Induce African governments to make serious and sustained efforts to help themselves by undertaking substantial structural reforms. o Persuade African governments that economic development goals can best be pursued through mechanisms and incentives which incorporate the principles of private enterprise and free trade. Accomplishments: o In three years we have doubled the quantity of emergency foodstuffs shipped to meet specific life-threatening famine problems in Africa, and we have led the world in providing humanitarian aid to African refugees. o In three years we have increased our non-emergency food and developmental aid to'Africa by 20 percent, tying this assistance to structural reform and increasing local agricultural productivity. o We have submitted to Congress a new Economic Policy Initiative which calls for $500 million in funds to support those African governments making the hard reforms and policy changes necessary for recovery. o We have joined the African Development Bank and increased our support to the African Development Fund. o We have placed major stress on the need for private sector development in Africa, recognizing that the unleashing of the indigenous private sector holds the key to long-term economic development. o We have seen major economic reforms take hold in Zaire and Liberia where recovery is beginning. o we have seen agricultural production raised dramatically in Somalia when centralized controls were lifted. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 34 o We have seen every self-described Marxist and Marxist-Leninist government in Africa (except Ethiopia and Angola) approach Western donors for increased aid in return for fundamental reversals in economic policy, including decontrol of the economy and freeing of the private sector. Talking Points: o Virtually all 45 nations of Sub-Saharan Africa, with a rapidly growing population that now totals 400 million, face an economic crisis of stark proportions. Per capita food production has fallen by 20 percent in the last 20 years; real per capita income has decreased 2-3 percent per year over the past three years. A tenacious drought continues to ravage the continent from the Sahel area to South Africa. Refugees number over two million. A recession that has touched every African nation began with the 1979 oil crisis and has not yet ended. o The economic crisis has many causes -- drought, the flow-through effect of recession in the developed world, effects of the 1979 oil price increase, civil wars -- but the World Bank identifies the prime cause as the failure of inappropriate domestic price incentives. Too many African governments have held too long to failed policies which stifle domestic production, chief among them being the rigid hewing to central planning and control precepts and practices. o The unprecedented economic crisis in Africa threatens U.S. interests on several levels. Unless alleviated, African leaders may increasingly look to authoritarian political strategies. Moreover, economic malaise breeds political instability that opens opportunities for Soviet, Cuban, and Libyan meddling. The African debt problem, though small compared to other areas, puts strain on the international financial system and defaults could increase that strain. Unchecked crisis will lead to greater famine and civil strife. A weak performance in Africa reduces trade with the West, inhibiting worldwide recovery. o we remain committed to private sector development in Africa, including Western private investment and trade, as the long-term answer to the continent's development needs. We see agricultural self-sufficiency as the first order of economic recovery and development there. We fully support the international financial organizations in requiring structural reforms in return for renewed financial assistance. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 35 o The efficiency and success of our efforts so far may be measured by the fact that nearly all the centrally-planned economies in Africa have undertaken positive change in the direction of freeing the private sector. (Only Ethiopia and Angola have not.) Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 36 LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN Issue: How can the United States most effectively assist Latin American and Caribbean democracy, economic improvement, and ability to resist outside aggression and subversion? Objectives: o Encourage, as much as possible, the current trend toward democratic government in the region. o Improve the economic well-being of the free peoples of Latin America and the Caribbean. o Assist friendly, democratic governments and peoples in the region to defend themselves against externally-supported Communist subversion and aggression. o Ensure that the historically close U.S.-Latin American relationship continues. Accomplishments: o We have provided consistent support and encouragement for democratic institution building: today 26 of 33 countries with 90% of the population are democratic or in transition. Since November 1980 there have been 33 free elections in 24 countries, virtually all with very high voter participation, including El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Brazil, Argentina, and the Dominican Republic. The Administration has provided tangible support for democratic labor unions and democratic institution- building through programs, such as the new National Endowment for Democracy proposed by President Reagan in 1982 and passed by the Congress in 1983. o Under the leadership of this Administration, U.S. economic assistance to the Latin America-Caribbean region has more than doubled. 70 percent of the U.S. foreign assistance to Central America is economic. o This Administration has taken the lead in formulating two major, comprehensive regional assistance and development programs for the area: the innovative Caribbean Basin Initiative, which offers increased access to the U.S. market for 12 years and can create many jobs and sources of income; and the President's Initiative for Democracy, Peace, and Development in Central America, implementing the recommendations of the National Bipartisan Commission on Central America in January 1984, now awaiting Congressional action. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 37 o We have been working with the area's public and private sectors and the International Monetary Fund to encourage involved parties to work effectively to resolve the $380 billion Latin American debt problem. o The U.S. has worked diligently through regular and special diplomatic channels to pursue realistic. solutions to Central America's problems. Our efforts have included several trips to the region by the President, Vice President, and Secretary of State, and the consecutive appointments of two Presidential Special Envoys to Central America who made a total of 16 trips to the region in the last year. We also have continuously supported the peace-seeking process initiated by the Contadora countries (Mexico, Panama, Colombia, and Venezuela). o Our most dramatic Caribbean accomplishment was to join, in October 1983, with the East Caribbean democracies at their request to rescue their and our citizens in Grenada, remove the Soviet bloc/Cuban presence from Grenada, and facilitate the process leading to the restoration of democratic institutions in Grenada. Since that time, the U.S. has helped the Caribbean democracies maintain a small multinational peacekeeping force on the island to provide security. o Our defense assistance to El Salvador has been modest (about $339 million over the past five years) but has been vitally important to that country's efforts to strengthen its armed forces enough to withstand repeated guerrilla attacks and give democracy a chance to take root. o U.S. military exercises in Honduras and provision of U.S. military training and assistance to Honduran forces have helped deter aggression by Nicaraguan forces, which number 100,000 persons including reserves. Talking Points: o The United States is linked by history, proximity, and special ties of friendship with the 33 independent countries and 380 million people of Latin America and the Caribbean. Objectives of this Administration have been to encourage democracy, support economic improvement, use active diplomacy to solve disputes, and provide security assistance so that governments threatened by Soviet bloc, Cuban, and Nicaraguan subversion could defend their people. o For the region as a whole, a highly encouraging recent trend has been the return of several countries to democratic government. Today, 26 of 33 countries are democratic or in a defined process of democratization. These account for 90% of the area's population. The Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 38 Administration has consistently encouraged the process of democratic institution-building in the area. o In Grenada, the United States and the Caribbean democracies rescued a nation from Soviet bloc and Cuban control and internal repression. Soviet, Cuban, and Nicaraguan-assisted subversion and Communist aggression have created a crisis in Central America, particularly in El Salvador. Continued Communist success would pose the threat, as the President has stated, that "100 million people from Panama to the open border on our south would come under the control of pro-Soviet regimes." We are countering this threat by helping those people to defend themselves. o While our military assistance to the region has been modest, our contribution in economic and developmental help has been substantial. Through the Caribbean Basin Initiative and the President's Initiative for Democracy, Peace, and Development in Central America, our commitment to help speed the process of economic growth in those areas will become even larger and, we believe, more effective. o We are continuing to work with friendly governments in the region to help them cope with their severe debt problems. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 39 Global Issues International Economics Issue: What should the United States do to help sustain and extend world economic recovery, help debtor nations help themselves, and assist the developing countries to begin to realize substantial, lasting economic growth? Objectives: o Formulate and implement sensible economic policies at home aimed at stemming inflation and government spending. o Develop a Free World consensus on policies designed to achieve enduring, non-inflationary economic recovery, financial stability, and liberalized trade. o Encourage an effective IMF-based economic adjustment process for debtor nations including sufficient private and public financing and selective reschedulings to ease the debt burden on LDC's and to restore conditions for sustainable economic growth. o Heighten Allied attention to the security dimensions of East-West economic relations including the forging of common objectives in NATO, OECD, IEA and COCOM. Accomplishments: o This Administration has succeeded in rebuilding a strong domestic economy which has pulled much of the world out of recession and into recovery: average growth rose from around 1% in 1981 to above 4% for 1984; average inflation of 10% in 1981 was cut to an expected 4.5% this year; 6 million American jobs were created in the past 18 months alone. o A consensus among the Allies has developed which reaffirms the economic policies espoused by President Reagan: market-oriented adjustment in our domestic economies; strengthened management of the LDC debt problem; and trade liberalization and open markets. o we have begun implementing a sensible five-part strategy to handle the debt problem that was developed at the Williamsburg Summit and embodied in the Williamsburg Declaration and was later reaffirmed at the London Summit. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 40 o Substantial progress has been made in domestic and international energy emergency preparedness through the accelerated build-up of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and an IEA agreement among the Allies for early use of petroleum stocks and demand restraint to avoid unnecessary volatility in the spot market. ti b An historic Allied consensus on East-West economic relations has been achieved which has led to elimination of preferential terms on credits to the USSR; reduction of the political/economic risk of Western European dependence on Soviet energy resources; and strengthened measures in COCOM to reduce the availability to the Soviets of strategically important Western technology. Talking Points: o The President inherited a fractious and deteriorating international economic order characterized by record inflation, high unemployment and severe recession. o From the outset, the President emphasized the importance of sensible domestic economic policies designed to halt inflation, increase employment, and stem the tide of increased government spending. o The President has repeatedly demonstrated his strong and visionary leadership in advancing a common Allied approach to key economic, trade, financial and security objectives through bilateral meetings in Washington and abroad, annual economic Summit meetings and in international fora such as OECD, IEA, NATO and COCOM. o The President first put forward his economic policies at the Ottawa Economic Summit in 1981. By the time President Reagan hosted the Williamsburg Summit two years later, it was clear that his policies were leading the U.S. and the free world on the path to full economic recovery. Under the President's leadership the Summit leaders agreed to coordinate policies to promote sustainable, non-inflationary growth and to forge a consensus on the security dimensions of East-West economic relations which had proved elusive in the past. o This was followed up a year later by the successes of the London Economic Summit which reinforced the importance of free market economics, open markets, and management of the debt problem. Agreement was also reached on important political statements on East-West relations, terrorism, democratic values and the-volatile Persian Gulf situation. o Working closely with our NATO Allies and Japan, we have made major gains in correcting the serious imbalance of the past between the advantages of trading with the USSR Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 41 and our common security requirements. We have reached agreement with the Allies on eliminating preferential terms on credits to the USSR and reducing the substantial risk of Western European dependence on Soviet energy resources. o In working closely with the COCOM countries, we have met head-on the challenge of stopping the flow of militarily-relevant Western technology to the USSR through the upgrading of the COCOM review process, the harmonization and tightening of national licensing and enforcement procedures, and the monitoring of the potential military application of emerging technologies. o The President has taken important steps to assure that we can manage the impact of any temporary energy disruption. Our Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has been increased fourfold and our efforts through the IEA to coordinate an coordinated response to an energy emergency have been highly successful. o The five-part debt strategy adopted by the Summit leaders at Williamsburg, and reaffirmed in London, has successfully contained the debt crisis. The Administration has also encouraged modification of the strategy, to include such measures as multi-year reschedulings for those responsible debtor countries who have performed well under IMF programs. We have also supported an increased flow of long-term direct investment to debtor nations and endorsed closer cooperation between the IMF and World Bank. o Through the leadership of President Reagan in the Summit process, the Allies have dedicated themselves to the expansion of international trade by the reduction of trade barriers. o The President has given major new impetus to American economic ties with Asia by reaching out to the economically dynamic Pacific Basin nations, including a significant improvement in bilateral relations with Japan, and strengthening relations with China, South Korea, and other countries of this vital region. o The improvement of the world economy, led by the U.S., and Allied agreement to resist protectionist trade policies and to assist struggling, developing nations through encouraging IMF-based economic adjustment, government and private sector financing and increased investment have begun to restore economic and financial stability to a number of Third World countries. o In our own hemisphere, the Caribbean Basin Initiative and the Central American Peace Initiative have helped open up Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 42 markets for the exports of our neighbors and Allies. Our efforts to help Grenada rebuild its economy, as illustrated by our commitment to complete the airport at Point Salines, and our active support of U.S. private sector initiatives to expand Grenadian investment and trading potential are demonstrating the benefits of a return to democracy. o The President has also initiated a major Administration effort to increase the effectiveness of resource allocations to meet the urgent problem of world hunger by providing help to build new infrastructure where needed, and by taking other measures to speed up the impact of relief measures. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 43 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY Issue: How can the United States best guarantee a reliable and adequate supply of the energy resources needed for national and international security -and economic well-being? Objectives: o Reduce government intervention in the energy sector through increased reliance on the market mechanism. o Improve the energy security of the U.S. and its Allies by action to reduce both the probability of future disruptions and the impact such supply interruptions might have on our economics. o Promote U.S. energy exports to Pacific Basin and European nations. o Urge key Allies to diversify their energy resources so that they are not dependent on single supplier nations, particularly in the case of energy imports from the Soviet Union. Accomplishments: o The Administration's decision to deregulate oil prices has stimulated domestic production and cut oil imports dramatically. o The size of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has quadrupled to over 400 million barrels of oil, giving the U.S. an enormous oil buffer against future oil disruptions. o The U.S. has led an initiative within the International Energy Agency to reduce reliance on Soviet energy. Studies indicate that European nations could become highly dependent on Soviet energy in the 1990's and that such dependency could make them highly vulnerable to disruptions for technical and/or political reasons. In May 1983, Ministers from IEA countries agreed that their countries would not become overly dependent on Soviet gas and that they will give preference to OECD energy resource development, particularly to Norwegian gas fields. o President Reagan and Prime Minister Nakasone agreed in November of 1983 to a program to increase energy trade between the United States and Japan. Over the.long run, this will create thousands of new jobs for Americans and greater energy security for both our nations. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 44 Talking Points: o U.S. Administrations since the time of the 1973/1974 oil embargo have seen energy as a constraint on economic systems. The present Administration sees energy as an opportunity. o Our action to deregulate oil prices has already brought about a significant drop in our import dependence by spurring domestic production. o Studies show that with continued energy deregulation the U.S. can achieve almost complete sufficiency in energy supplies by the next decade and at the same time provide ample supplies of energy to our Allies. o We have urged our Allies in Europe and the Pacific to consider increasing their reliance on U.S. exports of energy, particularly coal. This can provide them an important source of stable supply for many future decades, thereby reducing their dependency on more uncertain supplies. Prime Minister Nakasone and President Reagan have endorsed principles for energy trade between the United States and Japan, which will mean jobs for citizens and greater security for both nations. o In addition, we have led a process in the International Energy Agency to improve emergency preparedness of key industrialized countries to ensure that we do not have another wave of price increases and physical oil shortages as occurred in 1973/74 and 1979. o To do our share, we have quadrupled the Strategic Oil Reserve which now holds over 400 million barrels -- or about 80 days of our imports. At the initiative of the U.S., twenty-one member nations of the International Energy Agency agreed in July 1984 to coordinate their stocks in the event of a crisis to minimize the impacts a disruption would have on their economies. Those countries without stocks have agreed to make best efforts to increase them. o In addition to improving our ability to cope with a Persian Gulf oil disruption, we have successfully urged the Allies to reduce dependence on Soviet energy. The May 1983 IEA agreement confirms that the Europeans will look to indigenous sources, particularly Norway, instead of relying further on the Soviet Union for critical gas. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 45 TERRORISM Issue: How can the United States improve its deterrence of, protection against, and response to terrorist attacks? Objectives: o Improve the effectiveness of legal instruments under which persons involved in terrorist activity can be prosecuted. o Improve international cooperation in combating terrorism. o Develop and build enhanced security and operational capabilities to prevent and respond to terrorist acts. Accomplishments: o The Administration has submitted four bills to Congress which are designed to strengthen the legal instruments for dealing with terrorists. o western leaders at the London Economic Summit in June 1984 issued a declaration on international terrorism which includes a seven-point agreement on cooperative steps to be taken against terrorism. o The President has issued a directive which, among other things, calls for: Improved intelligence collection, analysis, and dissemination; better security protection and awareness; legal action to thwart terrorist attacks before they occur; and improved capability to respond to attacks, based on a cogent analysis of what responses are most likely to deter future attacks. o The Administration has proposed to the Soviets an agreement that would facilitate rapid communication via the hotline in the event of terrorist nuclear incidents. Talking Points: o During 1983, international terrorism took an appalling toll in human life. In that year alone, Americans were either the targets or incidental victims of 270 terrorist attacks. 271 U.S. citizens died as a result of terrorism. In the U.S. six people died in 31 terrorist incidents. Terrorism poses an increasing danger to democratic societies, and to our way of life. It is an indiscriminate form of warfare being waged against the U.S. and other democratic societies. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 46 o in recent years we have seen a growing phenomenon -- the direct use of terror by foreign states. State terrorism accounts for an increasing number of terrorist murders and assassinations. Some states are providing training, financing, and logistical support to terrorists and terrorist groups. These activities are a growing source ti of danger to us and are a severe challenge to America's foreign policy. o We seek to improve the ability of all the democracies to combat terrorism, to coordinate their actions, and to share information. o Under Article 51 of the UN Charter, every sovereign nation has the right of self-defense. When we have credible evidence of an impending terrorist attack, the U.S. has the right and responsibility to confuse, disrupt, and prevent that attack. o Terrorists are criminals. We expect our law enforcement agencies to protect us against terrorists and other criminals. American citizens, including diplomats and military personnel, have been the victims of a major share of the terrorist incidents over the past decade. The fact that most attacks against Americans are occurring overseas does not reduce our responsibility to protect Americans -- the duty is no less clear, only more difficult. o We will meet the challenge of terrorism head on. But in so doing, we must remain faithful to our democratic values, institutions; and laws. o Two bills now pending before Congress would enable us to adhere fully to provisions of the Montreal Convention against aircraft sabotage and the UN Convention against taking hostages; another bill would provide the authority to pay rewards for information on international terrorist activities; a fourth bill would allow prosecution of those who assist states or groups to engage in terrorism. o On July 23, 1983, the President issued a public statement urging international cooperation against terrorism, a subject he addressed again on September 17, 1983, in a message to European Chiefs of State and Heads of Government. o The President has also proposed to the Soviets an agreement that would facilitate rapid communications via the hotline in the event that terrorists acquired, threatened to use, or used a nuclear device -- events we consider highly unlikely but nonetheless believe we should be prepared to deal with. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 47 ARMS CONTROL Issue: The United States is seeking to negotiate meaningful, verifiable arms control agreements with the Soviet Union ti that reduce the arsenals and risks of war and truly enhance global security. Objectives: o Reduce the risks of war between East and West, particularly nuclear war. o Negotiate meaningful arms control agreements involving militarily significant arms reductions and constraints that enhance stability and are based on the principle of equality. o Include effective verification measures and procedures in to help assure compliance with agreements. o Ensure that arms control remains a component of, not a substitute for, a comprehensive, coherent security policy that includes the maintenance of credible deterrent forces. o Support expanded membership in the Non-Proliferation Treaty and seek to prevent the spread of nuclear explosives to additional countries. Accomplishments: o This Administration's is the most far-reaching arms control agenda in U.S. history. o This summer we accepted the Soviet proposal to meet to discuss effective and verifiable limits on the military uses of outer space. We are prepared to meet with them without preconditions to seek agreement on feasible negotiating approaches toward this end, as well as to discuss other issues of mutual interest including the resumption of nuclear arms reduction talks suspended by the Soviet Union. o START: Before the Soviets refused in December, 1983, to set a date for the next round of the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START), we had proposed that both sides undertake deep reductions to equal levels in their strategic nuclear forces: a cut of up to one-half in strategic ballistic missiles and a one-third cut in their Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 warheads; a reduction to equal numbers of heavy bombers, with quantitative constraints on air-launched cruise missiles; tradeoffs in U.S. and Soviet advantages; and a number of "build-down" approaches. o INF: We proposed far-reaching arms control accords in the negotiations on Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF). Major U.S. initiatives included: (1) the "zero-zero option" we introduced when talks began in November, 1981 (this option would eliminate some 600 Soviet INF missiles including 378 SS-20's armed with 1,400 warheads, as well as all of the U.S. Pershing II's and cruise missiles planned for deployment by NATO in response to the Soviet buildup.); and (2) our 1983 proposal for an equal interim level of such missiles by the two sides while work continued to produce agreement on zero missiles for both nations. Regrettably, the Soviets walked out of the INF negotiations in November, 1983, having rejected all U.S. initiatives to eliminate or reduce the entire class of longer-range INF missiles considered most threatening by both sides. o MBFR: In 1982 and again in the Spring of 1984, the U.S. and NATO proposed in the Mutual and Balanced Force Reduction (MBFR) talks in Vienna major new initiatives to resolve disagreements over the size of conventional forces, and their reduction, in Central Europe. Our proposals envisage major troop reductions to equal NATO and Warsaw Pact levels and effective verification procedures. o CDE: At the 35-nation Conference on Confidence - and Security-Building Measures in Europe (CDE) that opened in Stockholm in January, 1984, the U.S. and other Western nations proposed a package of concrete measures that would make military activities in Europe more open and would make it far more difficult to launch a surprise attack or intimidate others using military forces. In June, 1984, the President announced that we would consider a Soviet proposal on non-use of force in Europe if would begin serious negotiations with us on the Western package of confidence-building measures. o CW: In April, 1984, the U.S. proposed to the 40-nation Conference on Disarmament (CD) in Geneva a comprehensive treaty banning development, production, use, transfer, and stockpiling of chemical weapons, to be monitored through far-reaching challenge inspection procedures. o Nuclear Testing: The U.S. has three times within the past year sought to work with the Soviet Union in strengthening verification provisions of the signed, but unratified, Threshold Test Ban Treaty (prohibiting nuclear tests exceeding 150 kilotons) and Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Treaty. The Soviets have rejected such efforts, even as we have received evidence of likely Soviet noncompliance with these threshold agreements and with the.Limited Test Ban Treaty that obliges the parties not to conduct an underground nuclear test if the explosion would cause radioactive debris to be present outside-the borders of the state conducting the explosion. o The U.S. has also supported discussion, at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, of verification and compliance issues related to a comprehensive test ban. Such a ban is a long-term U.S. objective in the context of major nuclear arms reductions, much reduced reliance on nuclear deterrence, and the assurance of effective verification. o Non-Proliferation: We are seeking strengthened international safeguards to prevent further proliferation. o Hotline, Incidents at Sea: The U.S. in July, 1984, signed a new agreement with the Soviet Union to improve the Direct Communications Link or "hotline" and in June, 1984, renewed the U.S.-Soviet agreement to prevent incidents at sea. Talking Points: o Nuclear War: The President and his Administration have no higher priority than reducing the risks of war. Nuclear war in particular, as the President has said repeatedly, cannot be won and must never be fought. We seek arms control agreements' that truly enhance stability and security. o Arms Control: The Administration has a broad arms control agenda involving far-reaching proposals for arms reductions, constraints, and confidence-building measures. We are seeking agreements that are militarily significant, equitable, and verifiable. In each of our efforts, including a number of major negotiations, the U.S. and our Western Allies have made forthcoming new proposals in an effort to achieve progress. o ASAT/Space: We offered to meet with the Soviet Union this fall without preconditions to discuss feasible negotiation approaches on limiting the military uses of outer space. We have also supported discussion of ASAT/Space issues, focused on legal and verification issues, at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. o START/INF: Late last year the Soviet Union broke off the two nuclear arms reductions negotiations in Geneva, the Strategic Arms Reductions Talks (START) and those on Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 50 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF). The President has made clear his strong desire to resume these talks in order to agree on major cuts in the nuclear arsenals of both countries. o Negotiations: In addition, we are actively involved in a . ese include the Vienna negotiations on Mutual and Balanced Force Reductions (MBFR), the Stockholm Conference on Confidence- and Security-Building Measures in Europe (CDE), and the Conference on Disarmament (CD) negotiations in Geneva on a comprehensive chemical weapons ban, as well as discussions at the CD on limits on nuclear testing, on outer space, and on other areas of concern. o Compliance: The U.S. is seriously concerned about Soviet noncompliance with existing agreements. As indicated in the President's January, 1984, Report to the Congress on seven compliance issues, we have determined that the Soviet Union has violated the Geneva Protocol on Chemical Weapons, the Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention, the Helsinki Final Act, and at least two provisions of SALT II: telemetry encryption and a rule concerning ICBM modernization. The Report also indicated that the Soviet Union has almost certainly violated the ABM Treaty, probably violated the SALT II limit on new types of missiles, probably violated the SS-16 deployment prohibition of SALT II, and is likely to have violated the nuclear testing yield limit of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. We must insist that the Soviets rectify those areas where they are in-violation. For our part, we are continuing to carry out our own obligations and commitments, and will continue to seek effective verification and compliance measures in all arms control efforts we undertake. o Confidence Building Measures: The U.S. has proposed a wide range of CBMs in START, in MBFR, at the CDE and in other fora to help to ensure that war does not erupt because of accident, miscalculation, or misunderstanding. In July 1984, the Soviet Union signed what we hope will be the first of several agreements to this end: an agreement to upgrade the hotline. We hope that, over time, the Soviets will agree to build on this to establish a much broader-based means of ensuring against accidental nuclear war. number of other serious arms control efforts Th Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 DETERRENCE Issue: What can the United States do to convince potential aggressors not to use force in challenging U.S. vital interests? Objectives: o Reduce the risk of war or coercion by the threat to use force. o Ensure that our national security forces working along with those of our Allies are capable of implementing our deterrence strategy. Accomplishments: o Through our strategic, intermediate-range and nuclear conventional forces modernization programs, we have begun to remedy the significant vulnerabilities in those forces which were inherited in 1981. o The strong U.S. leadership and Alliance unity existing today have greatly strengthened deterrence. As a result, we have decreased the risk of Soviet miscalculation and increased the security of both ourselves and our Allies. Talking Points: o Deterrence is the -cornerstone of U.S. national security policy. we deter by ensuring that the leadership of all potential aggressors is aware of our policy to maintain forces adequate to deny an aggressor his basic war aims and, through retaliation, make the costs of aggression far outweigh any potential benefits. o The President has emphasized that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. Our recognition of this fact is not sufficient to prevent nuclear war: we must be certain that the Soviet leadership understands it as well. o Deterrence is not and cannot be based on bluff. We must have a credible retaliatory capability sufficient to deter the wide variety of attacks the Soviets are capable of making. The Soviet leadership must understand that, should they attack us or our Allies, our forces will retaliate against key elements of Soviet power and will thereby make the costs of aggression outweigh any possible gains. o Our nuclear modernization programs remove vulnerabilities in our deterrent forces and, as a result, enhance our ability to deter attack and prevent war. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION Issue: How can the United States close the gap between its strategic capabilities and those of the Soviet Union? Objectives: o Redress the most serious weaknesses in our current strategic posture. o Provide incentive to the Soviets to negotiate meaningful arms reductions that promote strategic stability. Accomplishments: o The President early-on recognized the need for strategic modernization and as a result proposed a five-element mutually reinforcing program to restore the strategic balance. o The five-point program directed the Department of Defense to: design and produce a cost-effective Peacekeeper intercontinental ballistic missile; refine and improve the basic design of the B-1 strategic bomber and place it into series production; select a design and develop an Advanced Technology Bomber (ATB) to complete the basic modernization requirements of the strategic bomber force of the 1990s and beyond; develop an improved Trident II/D-5 submarine-launched ballistic missile system and a nuclear-armed SLCM; and design and deploy improvements to our command-and-control system to ensure positive control to further reduce the risk of war. o Two major changes to the President's program were incorporated after its initiation: at the recommendation of the Scowcroft Commission, work was initiated on a Small ICBM for deployment in the 1990s; and an intensive research program aimed at elimination of the threat of ballistic missiles was begun. o Significant progress has been made on all five of the Strategic Initiatives. o Improvements to the Strategic Command-and-Control system are being implemented. o The first production B-lB will be rolled-out in September, months ahead of schedule and below cost. Research on the ATB is on or ahead of schedule. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 o The first 21 Peacekeeper missiles are in production, and the Peacekeeper missile has had five successful test launches. o Research on the D-5 missile is on schedule and the nuclear-armed SLCM has been deployed. o Improvements to our strategic defenses are being implemented, and the President's Strategic Defense Initiative is now underway. Talking Points: o Strategic modernizat ion r made in a number of areas. ea y een is required to redress the serious weaknesses in our strategic posture caused by the massive Soviet build-up of strategic forces over the past 10-15 years, a period of U.S. restraint in deployment of strategic systems. It is also needed to restore our deterrent strength and to provide strong incentives to the Soviets to negotiate genuine arms reductions. Under President Reagan's leadership, a multi-element, mutually reinforcing strategic modernization program has been initiated. Significant progress has al d b o Strategic communications-and-control systems are being improved to ensure that we could employ our nuclear forces effectively, which is essential to a credible deterrent. o Bomber modernization is- underway to reduce the risks associated with the aging and potentially vulnerable B-52 force. o modernized sea-based forces, currently the most survivable leg of our strategic Triad, are being created, as represented by the new Trident II/D-5 missile. o Our land-based missile force is being modernized to remedy an important part of the strategic imbalance. Contributions of the ICBM include: prompt hard target capability; secure command-control-and-communications; rapid re-targeting; high alert rate; and low operations and support costs -- 12 percent of the total for the entire Triad. o The President's strategic modernization program is an essential element in helping us meet our arms control objectives. We have stated that we are willing to Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 negotiate trade-offs in each side's advantages and a build-down of strategic systems leading to significantly lower and more stable strategic forces. We seek to reach an equitable and verifiable arms control agreement. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 ICBM MODERNIZATION Issue: How can the United States maximize the effectiveness of the ground-based portion of the strategic Triad in support of credible deterrence? - Objectives: o modernize the aging ICBM force through the deployment of 100 Peacekeeper missiles and the development of a new small mobile ICBM. Accomplishments: o The Peacekeeper test program has been an outstanding success: all test objectives have been met or exceeded, and accuracy/reliability results have been excellent. o Production has been approved and initiated on the first 21 Peacekeeper missiles, and basing work at F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming, is progressing on schedule. All other requirements for an operational deployment of Peacekeeper in 1986 are on schedule. o Development of the small ICBM has begun and is on schedule for a possible deployment in the early 1990's. Talking Points: o ICBM modernization is essential to the viability of the strategic Triad of bombers, submarine missiles, and ICBMs that has kept the peace for well over two decades. o The President has endorsed the recommendations of the Bipartisan Scowcroft Commission to deploy as soon as possible 100 Peacekeeper missiles and develop a small ICBM, while vigorously pursuing arms control. o The Reagan Administration proposal of 100 missiles is half the size of the Carter program, but is part of a balanced strategic modernization program. o Peacekeeper is the only near-term ICBM that can help restore the strategic imbalance that developed as the Soviets modernized during a period of U.S. restraint. o Since the early 1970s, the Soviets have modernized their ICBM force through the addition of a new generation of MIRVed ICBMs, 150 SS-17 missiles, 308 SS-18 missiles and 360 SS-19 missiles. The U.S. made no new deployments during this period. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 o Peacekeeper deployment is also needed to demonstrate U.S. resolve and to encourage the Soviets to resume arms control negotiations. Failure to deploy Peacekeeper would: undercut NATO's decision to modernize its long-range nuclear force through deployment of GLOM and Pershing II missiles; reward the Soviets for failing to resume START negotiations; and provide no incentive for the Soviets to begin serious negotiations aimed at limiting and reducing strategic systems. o Peacekeeper deployment is a vital first step in a logical, comprehensive, and progressive approach toward permitting us and encouraging the Soviets to move toward smaller, survivable, and more stable systems at lower levels of forces. Without Peacekeeper, the Soviets have no incentive to move in this direction in the near term. With ICBM modernization, stability and deterrence will be enhanced well into the Twenty-First Century. o A new single warhead small ICBM is also required. Each of these ICBMs represents a low-target value from a Soviet attack-plan perspective. A flexible and survivable basing mode is being developed as a complement to a small ICBM. (Current emphasis is on a hard mobile concept.) Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 57 NUCLEAR-ARMED SEA-LAUNCHED CRUISE MISSILE Issue: How can the United States most effectively modernize the Navy's deterrent capability? Objectives: o Offset the threat posed by the Soviet Union's development and deployment of sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). o Enhance the U.S. deterrent posture. Accomplishments: o The Administration announced the decision to deploy nuclear SLUM as part of its October 1981 Strategic Modernization Program. The nuclear-armed SLCM contributes to our strategic reserve force and the modernization of our worldwide naval deterrent capability. o Funding of the SLCM program first was approved by the Congress in FY 1981 and has continued without interruption ever since, enabling the program to meet its scheduled initial deployment date of July 1984. Talking Points: o In the early 1970's the U.S. decided to develop conventional and nuclear-armed SLCMs to improve our deterrent posture and to offset the threat imposed by the development and deployment of Soviet nuclear SLCMs. o The nuclear-armed SLCM provides badly-needed modernization of our Navy's deterrent capability. When deployed on surface ships or submarines, it is a highly survivable system. It is a highly accurate weapon, and its procurement costs are relatively low. o The.SLCM program actually offsets a Soviet capability that has existed since the early 1960's, when their first sea-launched cruise missiles were deployed. Moscow now has seven operational SLCM systems, six of which are dual-capable -- i.e., are currently deployed in both conventional and nuclear-armed configurations. At least two of these systems feature weapons with ranges in excess of 400 kilometers that can threaten many costal U.S. cities. o The ban on nuclear-armed SLCMs -- which in effect would be a unilateral one -- proposed by the House of Representatives thus would allow the Soviets to hold a monopoly in such systems, giving Moscow even less reason Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 58 to negotiate genuine arms reductions. Unilateral U.S. restraint will soon become even more ill-advised, since the Soviets are preparing to deploy a new weapon system similar to the U.S. Tomahawk. o At the same time, such a ban, by precluding the deployment of the U.S. counterpart, impairs a needed modernization of the U.S. nuclear deterrent capability and a significant enhancement of our nuclear reserve force. o In fact, rather than being stabilizing, a ban would add to instability by continuing to force the U.S. Navy to concentrate its deterrent capabilities aboard a small number of platforms. By contrast, the deployment of SLCM's would result in the dispersal of our deterrent capability across the fleet, thereby both assuring increased force survivability and reducing the attractiveness of a first-strike to potential aggressors. o A ban would constitute unilateral arms control by restricting only the U.S. SLCM Program. Such a move is all the more ill-advised since in addition to their existing SLUM force the Soviets are preparing to deploy a Tomahawk -- if they have not already done so -- look-alike: the SS-NX-21. As a result of our unilateral restraint, the Soviet Union would have even less reason to negotiate seriously to realize real nuclear arms reductions being sought by the Administration. o In spite of the known difficulties in negotiating an arms control agreement which. includes SLCM's, the U.S. has stated its desire to resume negotiations at the START and INF talks with no preconditions and with all forces open for discussion. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE Issue: How can the United States attain its long-range goal of ultimately making ballistic missiles impotent and obsolete? Objective: o Explore the potential of advanced technologies to enable the U.S. to develop and deploy an effective defense against ballistic missiles. Accomplishments: o On March 23, 1983, the President directed that research within the limits prescribed by the ABM Treaty go forward on neutralizing the ballistic missile threat as a prudent hedge against a possible breakout by Moscow from the ABM Treaty. o Government and outside experts conducted two studies between June and October 1983 to determine whether advanced technologies could support development of an effective anti-ballistic missile defense and whether such defenses could enhance deterrence, stability, and prospects for arms reductions. The results of both were a qualified "yes" -- qualified because the studies recognized some uncertainties that could only be resolved through further research. As a result, these experts recommended a vigorous research program designed to answer the remaining questions as to whether an effective defense is feasible. o After consulting Congressional leaders and our Allies, the President directed that the additionally needed research get underway under a Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), an effort to be conducted over approximately the next five years. work will be restricted to research on a broad range of defensive technologies consistent with our treaty obligations. The objective is to provide answers that will permit us to make an informed decision in the future on whether to proceed with developing such defensive systems. Talking Points: o The President's Strategic Defense Initiative seeks to explore the potential of emerging defensive technologies to enhance deterrence by significantly reducing the military effectiveness of ballistic missiles. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 60 o It does not constitute a decision to develop and deploy such a defensive systems. Rather, it is a research program that is designed to answer a number of technological questions that must be answered before the promise of defensive systems can be properly assessed. o The Soviet Union has the world's only active ballistic missile defense system. For well over a decade, they have had a vigorous defensive technologies research program that includes upgrading this system, seeking a rapidly-deployable ABM system, and actively investigating advanced defensive technologies. The U.S. program is, therefore, a prudent hedge against possible Soviet gains that would adversely affect U.S. and Allied security. o Advanced defenses have the potential of reducing the value of ballistic missiles, and thus increasing the likelihood of negotiated reductions. o Taken together with balanced offensive forces and effective arms control measures, advanced defenses against ballistic missiles could increase deterrence and stability by: making aggressors less certain about the outcome of an attack; making pre-emptive attacks on retaliatory forces less attractive; and reducing or eliminating, when combined with effective air defenses, the military utility of these nuclear weapons. o The initiative in no way signals a shift in priority away from the modernization of strategic and intermediate-range nuclear assets and conventional forces that is essential to the maintenance of deterrence in the decades ahead. o The U.S. intends to continue to work closely with the Alliance to ensure that, in the event of a future decision to deploy defensive systems, Allied, as well as U.S., security against aggression would be enhanced. Any future decisions concerning potential deployment of defensive systems would be made in full consultation with our Allies. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 61 ANTI-SATELLITE (ASAT) DEVELOPMENT AND ARMS CONTROL Issue: How can the United States best protect its interests in space and strengthen deterrence? ' Objectives: o Ensure that we have a full range of options for protecting our military and civil systems deployed in space. o Develop anti-satellite and space weapons systems as well as negotiate agreements that maintain and strengthen deterrence in these areas. Accomplishments: o The U.S. supports formation of a committee to discuss the need for improvements to the existing body of international law governing outer space in the forty-nation Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. o In March 1984, the Administration submitted a comprehensive report to the Congress on U.S. Policy on ASAT Arms Control which pointed out that there are several factors that impede the identification of effective ASAT arms control measures. These include significant difficulties of verification, diverse sources of threats to U.S. and Allied satellites, and threats posed by Soviet targeting and reconnaissance satellites that undermine conventional and nuclear deterrence. The report also indicated that the U.S. would continue to seek selected limits on specific types of systems or activities. o The Soviets introduced their own ASAT system in 1972 which is today the world's only deployed ASAT system. In June 1984, they offered to discuss space-related arms control issues in Vienna. o The U.S. has announced its readiness to meet with the Soviet Union in Vienna this fall without preconditions to discuss feasible negotiation approaches on limiting ASAT systems, even as we also seek a resumption of the nuclear arms reduction negotiations. o The U.S. ASAT Program under development has made significant technical progress: the ASAT Boost System has been tested; tests will soon be made involving the booster and its miniature homing vehicle; and tests against a target in space are scheduled. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 o Research continues on technologies with potential for ASAT use, including directed energy weapons and space tracking technology. o Survivability of U.S. space assets is being upgraded through the development of measures which reduce or eliminate the effectiveness of Soviet ASAT systems. ti Talking Points: o Current Soviet ASAT capabilities include an operational orbital interceptor system; ground-based test lasers with probable ASAT capabilities; possibly the nuclear-armed Galosh ABM interceptors; and the technological capability for electronic warfare (jamming) against space systems. o The operational Soviet ASAT system threatens all key U.S. low-altitude satellites. o The 1978-1979 ASAT arms control talks revealed major U.S.-Soviet differences, and subsequent study has brought space arms control issues into sharper focus. Problems in space arms control include: verification difficulties; high risk of Soviet break-out due to existing Soviet ASAT capabilities and research; difficulties in defining space weapons, since many ground-based systems have space capability and manned space systems have extreme flexibility; and the fact the Soviets have existing systems whereas we do not. o The Soviets' proposal for an ASAT arms control treaty lacks provisions for effective verification, is unclear with regard to Soviet targeting satellites, and does not deal with residual ASAT capabilities. The moratorium proposal seems clearly designed to block tests of the U.S. ASAT while allowing the USSR to maintain its monopoly with the world's only operational ASAT interceptor system. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 63 SPACE Issue: How can the United States capitalize on the full potential of the medium of space in satisfying overall national interests? - Objectives: o Strengthen the security of the United States. o Maintain U.S. space leadership. o Benefit economically and scientifically by exploiting space. o Expand U.S. private sector investment and involvement in civil space-related activities. o Promote international cooperative activities in space that are in the national interest. o Work with other nations to preserve the freedom of space for all activities that enhance the security and welfare of mankind. Accomplishments: o On July 4, 1982, President Reagan signed the National Space Policy to guide the conduct of our space program. The policy states that our space program will be conducted according to several principles. o We are committed to the exploration and use of space by all nations for peaceful purposes and for the benefit of mankind. o We reject any claims to sovereignty by any nation over outer space, celestial bodies, or any portion thereof, and reject any limitations on the fundamental right to acquire data from space. o We consider the space systems of any nation to be national property with the right of passage through and operations in space without interference. o We encourage domestic commercial exploitation of space capabilities, technology, and systems for national economic benefit. o We will conduct international cooperative space-related activities that achieve sufficient scientific, political, economic, or national security benefits for the nation. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 o Our space program will be comprised of two separate, distinct, and strongly interacting programs-- national security and civil. o The Space Transportation System (STS) is the primary space launch system for both national security and civil government missions. o We will pursue activities in space in support of our right of self-defense. o We will continue to study space arms control options. o Our Space Assistance and Cooperation Policy, which was issued on August 6, 1982, promulgates broad U.S. objectives in international space cooperation and provides policy on space launch and technology assistance. o The President has directed the maintenance of orbiter production through manufacturing structural and component spares. o In May 1983, the President established a policy to facilitate the commercialization of expendable launch vehicles (ELVs). A Senior Interdepartmental Group (Space) study subsequently led to establishing procedures for licensing commercial space launches and giving lead-agency responsibility to the Department of Transportation. o Following the completion of-an interdepartmental study, the President announced in his State of the Union Address on January 25, 1984, that developing the frontier of space would be one of the four major goals for the U.S. in the 1980s. In this context he announced that: the U.S. will develop a permanently-manned space station and place it in orbit within a decade; our friends and Allies are invited to join us in the program; and we would implement a number of initiatives designed to promote private sector investment in space. o At the London Economic Summit in June 1984, the Summit partners welcomed the U.S. invitation to participate in the Space Station program and agreed to review international participation at the next summit. o On July 20, 1984, the President announced 13 initiatives to encourage commercial activity in space. o On August 15, 1984 the President approved a National Space Strategy. The Strategy implements the National Space Policy by providing 17 priorities for the U.S. Space Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Program in the STS, Civil Space, Commercial Space, and National Security Space areas. Seven'follow-on efforts to further implement the policy are directed. Talking Points: ti p A vigorous and forward-looking space program is one of the most highly visible and tangible demonstrations of world leadership. o Few other national endeavors have equaled the potential of the U.S. Space Program to: perform functions in the national security, domestic and private sectors that either cannot be performed any other way or cannot be performed as economically or as well; advance the state-of-the-art in high technology; and elevate the human spirit, capture our imaginations, demonstrate our pioneering initiative, and hold out hope for a progressive future for our nation and all mankind. o No other President has taken a more personal interest in U.S. space policy, attached higher priority to it, or promulgated more policy decisions dealing with it than President Reagan. Since announcement of his National Space Policy on July 4, 1982, the President has issued approximately eight directives and made numerous decisions that will help implement this broad policy. The Senior Interdepartmental Group (SIG) for Space was established to coordinate the implementation. o Much remains to be done to set the U.S. Space Program on a course that ensures U.S. leadership in the decades ahead. By the President's direction, a National Space Strategy has been completed which establishes broad priorities for the U.S. Space Program and identifies potential issues to be resolved through follow-on studies. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 MILITARY CAPABILITY/READINESS Are our armed forces more "ready" than in 1980? Objectives: - 1, o Continue to improve training and skill levels of U.S. forces. o Reduce longstanding defects in combat sustainability, including stock levels of critical consumables. o Provide modern and sophisticated conventional equipment to enhance combat effectiveness and survivability. o Blend equipment, stock level, and manpower improvements into more combat capable armed forces. o Provide better capability to deploy forces to combat requirements and sustain them once deployed. Accomplishments: o In force readiness (i.e., the ability of forces, weapons systems, etc. to deliver outputs--without unacceptable delay--for which they were designed), substantial progress has been made in the past three years and steady improvement is projected for the future. o Since FY 1980 there has been an almost 20 percent increase in the number of enlisted personnel with four or more years of service, and the percentage of recruits with high school diplomas has increased from 68 percent to 92 percent. o While trends in average training hours/flying days/steaming days have been steady or have improved slightly since 1980, the quality of training has improved considerably, and the number of units rated "substantially ready" has increased by about 25 percent. o Trends in the material condition (i.e., mission-capable rates) of most major weapons categories have been steady or slightly improving since FY 1980. Now, however, we are supporting larger numbers of more sophisticated and complex weapons, operating them for longer periods, and still realizing readiness improvements in some areas. o In force sustainability (the staying power of our forces in combat), because of the long lead times involved in procurement, our increased funding from FY 1982-84 for sustainability has not yet been fully translated into Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 67 significantly increased inventories. However, we have increased the budget allocation by 100 percent over the 1980 level, which will result, for example, in an increase in munitions sustainability of 14 percent for'the Army, 62 percent for the Air Force, 58 percent for the Navy and 24 percent for the Marine Corps. b In force structure (i.e., the numbers, size, and composition of our defense forces units), we have provided for significant increases in the numbers of some units (divisions, battalions, tactical fighter wings, Navy aircraft squadrons, and ship battle groups) over the past four years. The need to provide balance among the components of military capability within finite resources .has required, however, that revisions in force structure receive a somewhat lower priority than modernization, readiness, and sustainability. o In Strategic mobility, we can deliver 25 percent more tonnage to Europe by air. We have done more to improve sealift since 1981 than in all the years since WW II. o In Force Modernization, we have obtained appropriations of over $27 billion for construction of 34 new major combat ships. We have funded a substantial increase for procurement of modern weapons systems for the Army and Marine Corps, e.g., for some 2,929 M-1 Abrams tanks; 2,200 Bradley Fighting vehicles; 171 AG-64 Apache attack helicopters; 430 Light Armored Vehicles; over 1,000 Armored Amphibious Vehicles; and 3,000 Stinger missiles. We can provide 62 percent more air sorties in Europe, sorties whose individual effectiveness is improved because they are newer aircraft carrying more accurate weapons. o The introduction of more modern, capable, and effective weapons systems has in some cases been accompanied by a period of lower apparent readiness, in terms of equipment fill, during the period of transition when not all of the ancillary support equipment has been delivered and there are no suitable substitutes to offset the shortage. This apparent reduction in readiness, however, is only temporary and is more than offset by modernization improvements that enhance overall capability. o The Bottom Line: In the professional judgment of each U.S. Unified and Specified Commander-in-Chief, his command is indeed far more ready "by every measure of common sense" than it was four years ago. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 68 Talking Points: o This Administration inherited several acute defense problems which required immediate attention: There was no comprehensive plan for strategic modernization; production rates for many important procurement programs were grossly inefficient; war reserves were extremely low; and there was an ongoing "hemorrhage" of skilled manpower. The commitment to address and resolve these problems appeared to have been woefully inadequate. o This Administration's primary objectives have thus been to improve near-term training, readiness, and manpower problems; integrate the modernization of strategic forces; increase conventional force modernization; and make inroads in the longstanding deficiencies in combat sustainability. o Overall, substantial progress has been made in many aspects of these problems in the past three years, and gradual but steady improvement is projected in the future. We have more and better people; they are better trained; and our men and materiel are better supported. o It has never been our view that all the problems we inherited could be solved within four years. But we have shown that it is possible to set defense priorities and to make balanced progress in improving overall military capabilities. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 69 NUCLEAR WEAPONS MODERNIZATION IN NATO. How can the United States best advance the process of modernizing NATO's weapons to provide an effective and credible deterrent which supports NATO -strategy while preserving the Alliance's unified approach to modernization? Objectives o Continue, in the absence of an arms control agreement, to deploy long-range intermediate nuclear weapons (LRINF) in accord with the 1979 NATO Decision. o maintain an effective and credible nuclear deterrent in NATO which supports NATO strength at the lowest reasonable inventory level. o Enhance the utility, survivability, and safety of nuclear weapons in NATO. Accomplishments o The NATO nuclear weapons inventory has been reduced to its lowest level in twenty years. Following a withdrawal of 1,000 warheads in 1980 as part of the 1979 Dual-Track Decision, we reached further agreement in 1983 to withdraw 1,400 additional weapons. o Alliance unity has been maintained through extensive consultations throughout INF negotiations. We agree on negotiating positions and on adherence to measured deployment of 572 LRINF weapons in the absence of a verifiable, equitable arms control agreement. o we continue to explore ways to reach the lowest inventory level and weapons mix consistent with a credible and effective nuclear deterrent. o We have obtained Allied recognition of and support for improvements in conventional defense capabilities to permit less reliance on nuclear weapons in NATO strategy. U.S. defense improvements have led the way in reducing the need for early resort to nuclear weapons. o A limited but effective modernization program for shorter-range systems has been developed, to provide needed capabilities at reduced inventory levels. Modernization also enhances the accuracy and flexibility of stockpile warheads. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 70 Talking Points o Over the last four years, progress in NATO nuclear weapons modernization has been substantial. We have reduced the overall weapons inventory to the lowest level in twenty years, and in 1983 we reached agreement in the Alliance to ti withdraw another 1,400 warheads, plus an additional warhead for each Pershing II or Ground-Launched Cruise Missile deployed. o We have maintained Alliance unity in pursuit of both tracks of the 1979 Dual-Track Decision. We have negotiated constructively and flexibly on INF, with full Alliance accord on our position, until the Soviets broke off the talks; we have adhered to a measured and limited deployment of Pershing II and Ground-Launched Cruise Missiles in the absence of an equitable and verifiable INF arms control agreement. o We have pursued a limited modernization program for other short-range nuclear warheads, which will allow us and NATO to maintain a credible, effective theater nuclear deterrent at the lowest possible inventory level. o We have led the way in conventional defense improvements in NATO, and have convinced the Allies of the wisdom of our efforts to improve conventional forces and reduce reliance on nuclear weapons if deterrence fails. o During the last four years, the United States has undertaken a sustained,- expanded, and in some cases unprecedented, level of consultations with its NATO Allies. o The NATO Special Consultative Group (SCG), chaired by the U.S., met regularly and often to review and coordinate our INF negotiating efforts. o The NATO High-Level Group (HLG), also chaired by the U.S., has also met frequently to examine critical nuclear issues facing the Alliance, providing the analysis on which NATO decisions on these issues have been based. o The U.S. has participated in semi-annual meetings of the Ministerial-level Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) to discuss nuclear issues in the Alliance. o The U.S. also has participated in a series of bilateral High Level Defense Group meetings with various NATO partners which have resulted in improved understanding of defense matters. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 71 NON-FIRST-USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS How should the United States respond to pressures to renounce the first use of nuclear weapons in a conflict? Objectives: o Support NATO strategy of not being the first to use force of any kind. o Protect our ability to deter attack by avoiding categorical assurances that we will never be the first to use nuclear weapons. o Deflate the charge that a policy of forswearing the first-use of nuclear weapons enhances stability and security. Accomplishments: o The Administration has reaffirmed U.S. adherence to the principle, embodied in both the UN Charter and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Charter, that we will not be the first to resort to force of any kind. o In consultation with our NATO Allies, we also have revalidated the strategy of flexible response as first and foremost a deterrence strategy, not an aggressive strategy. o The U.S. has offered to discuss, in CDE, a proposal for a formal agreement on non-use of force if the Soviets will enter serious negotiations about substantive and verifiable confidence-building measures which enhance security and lessen the possibility of an outbreak of war. Talking Points: o America's policy on how to promote world peace has consistently been more inclusive--and thus potentially more productive -- than any one declaration on a specific kind of weapon: we are pledged not to be the first to use force "of any kind." o Our policy on this issue has been developed in close consultation with our Allies, especially the other NATO members. We approach this issue in concert. o A declaration about non-first-use of a specific weapons type, such as nuclear weapons, would send confusing signals about our sincerity and credibility in carrying Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 72 out a deterrent strategy designed to prevent any aggression, nuclear or conventional, against the Western democracies. o Over the last four years, we have devoted considerable energy and resources to improving conventional defense ti capabilities. This will allow us to reduce our reliance on nuclear weapons and maintain a credible overall deterrent -- but from a posture which enhances overall security rather than placing it at risk. o Signaling in advance to a potential aggressor who clearly enjoys a substantial advantage in conventional and chemical forces how we might -- or might not -- respond to his aggression could encourage him to see how far he might be able to go. This would undercut NATO's longstanding deterrence strategy, thereby actually increasing the chances of nuclear war. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 73 TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER Issue: How can the United States and its Allies resolve their own disparate views and devise a comprehensive means of preventing the Soviet Union and its Allies-from acquiring sensitive technology? Objectives: o Recognize and explain, both to ourselves and our Allies, the nature of the threat posed by technology transfer. o Reach agreement on the extent of the threat. o Introduce new countermeasures and constraints to impede if not prevent such losses. o Continue to improve our intelligence on technology transfer matters. o Curb the loss of sensitive technology without working undue hardship on U.S. and Allied economic interests. ACCOMPLISHMENTS: o The Reagan Administration is the first to fully recognize the security risk posed by technology transfer. It has made many statements both publicly and in private to Allies and U.S. business on the threat and our intention to defeat it. o The flow of information on technology transfer available to us has increased dramatically. The results are being seen in court cases and convictions for both diversion and espionage in technology loss. o Both U.S. Customs and the Commerce Department have significantly increased their enforcement work, and since 1980, technology transfer has become an area of priority in our intelligence effort. o The security services of our Allies have expelled many Soviet intelligence collectors, a result partially attributable to U.S. efforts to highlight this issue. Additionally, the U.S. has closed down many means previously used by the Soviets to acquire technical information. o In COCOM the U.S. has made great progress in convincing our Allies that the threat is serious. The recent COCOM agreement is evidence of that achievement. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 74 Talking Points: o The Soviets and their Warsaw Pact Allies have sustained a large-scale effort for some time to obtain Western technical information and to adopt it to their military and supporting industrial base requirements. The Soviets are well behind the U.S. in many technologies having military use, e.g., computers and microprocessor technology, and thus require Western, and especially U.S., information to meet weapons requirements. o Europe and Japan are, like ourselves, innovative and scientifically advanced. Our Allies have a vested common concern in stemming technology loss, as this loss leads to higher defense budgets for all, while concurrently weakening deterrence. On the other hand, each ally has its own view of its economic relationship with Bloc countries; there is, therefore, a tension of competing interests among our Allies over economic gain versus the provision of technology to the Bloc. At issue is how to resolve these disparate views. o Despite progress, a problem so complex as the loss of technology cannot quickly be remedied. The Soviets are very skilled in their collection techniques and know specifically what they must have. Since the collection of technical information has been a long-standing campaign, with numerous avenues of collection, impeding this effort is not quickly done. o The U.S. is an open society with a heritage of free expression. This freedom of expression is exploited by the Soviets in their collection program; the U.S. Government must ensure proper protection of sensitive information while not impeding the rights and traditions of free expression. o The effort to slow or stop the loss of strategic technology must be a persistent, long term undertaking. It is essential both for ourselves and our Allies that the threat continue to be highlighted and exposed for the danger that it poses, and that countermeasures, both unilateral and bilateral, be kept in place and supported, and backed by the highest levels in the Administration. A great deal of progress has been made and this progress must be sustained and enhanced by organizational, legal and technical means. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 75 REVITALIZATION OF SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES why is it necessary to expand and improve U.S. military Special Operations Forces (SOF)? Objectives: o Rebuild and maintain SOF capable of conducting the full range of assigned missions at all levels of conflict on a worldwide basis. o Provide the National Command Authority a flexible military force for use in pursuit of strategic national objectives, especially in situations in which the use of conventional forces would be inappropriate or infeasible. o Answer the challenge of Soviet-sponsored or encouraged destabilization in the Third World by maintaining the ability to help others build their nations and counter low-level aggression. o Ensure that the process of revitalization is fully completed by 1990. Accomplishments: o The Reagan Administration has made SOF revitalization one of its highest defense priorities. o Management of the SOF revitalization effort has been enhanced by the creation of the Joint Special Operations Agency under the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and activities within the Office of the Secretary of Defense. o Command and control has been improved through the establishment of the Army's 1st Special Operations Command and the Air Force's 23rd Air Force (MAC). o SOF force structure is being expanded with the activation of new Special Forces Groups, Ranger battalions, and SEAL Teams, and existing understrength units are being fleshed out. o we are procuring new special operations aircraft and Naval Special Warfare Craft and replacing outdated equipment such as weapons and radios. o We are undating and revising SOF doctrine and expanding and improving specialized training. o We are working to ensure that those who serve in special operations have opportunities for career advancement equal Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 76 to those of their peers in other branches of service. Talking Points: o The Reagan Administration inherited SOF debilitated by a decade of neglect and deep cuts in funding and manpower. o Our determination to revitalize these forces is based on the recognition of the strategic role they can play at all levels of conflict. o In particular, we are concerned about the threat to our security posed by low-intensity conflict. Since Cuba went communist, 17 countries have fallen to this, form of aggression, and today one out of four countries in the world is engaged in some form of hostilities. More importantly, because the nuclear and conventional defenses of the Free World have deterred direct Soviet aggression, the Soviets have turned to destabilization as a more subtle means to achieve their expansionist goals. o SOF have a unique role to play in countering this threat. Because of their specialized skills, they are ideally suited to train others to act in their own defense and build their nations so peace and freedom can prevail. In so doing, they are reducing the likelihood of more widespread aggression. o Since 1975, SOF have been involved in more than 500 Mobile Training Teams deployed to some 60 countries around the world. Today they account for more than one-quarter of such teams and are the most heavily committed of our military forces. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 6194 Add-on WASHINGTON October 16, 1984 MEMORANDUM FOR THE HONORABLE WILLIAM J. CASEY Director of Central Intelligence SUBJECT: Selected National Security Issues Executive Registry 84. 7027/2 Enclosed are two copies of the September 1984 Selected National Security Issues book for your use. The book summarizes our objectives and accomplishments and provides talking points for the specific issues selected. We intend to publish an updated version quarterly. The National Security Council Executive Secretary has a limited number of additional copies. I would appreciate any comments and suggestions you may have to assist us in updating and maintaining this book as a useful aid for dealing with national security issues. Attachment Selected National Security Issues, September 1984 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Jtl.Kt I Ccntral Intelligence Agency Mmsfrrglon, a C. 20505 MEMORANDUM FOR: Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs SUBJECT: Selected National Security Issues Book Executive Registry Ls4- 7027 / 3 1 AUG 1984 1. I reviewed with interest the latest draft of the "Selected International Security Issues Book" which you and your staff have compiled as an aid for Administration spokesmen. This should be an invaluable tool in ensuring that this Administration speaks with a single voice on the many itive issues covered in this important compilation. 2. To assist in this effort I have asked my experts to review this draft from two perspectives: first, to see if there is any classified information contained therein that would need to be excised, and; second, to check and ensure that it is factually correct. With respect to classification, they found only one item of concern and that wa-r- thp acknowl edement Finally, you Will TIM zz c e some suggested rrections which have been made for the sake of accuracy. 3. Bud, if you need any further assistance in this matter please call. I -look forward to receiving the final version of this very useful paper DISTRIBUTION 1 DDCI 1 -? EXDIR 1-DDI Attachmen : ER FILE As stated 7s7 1213-"m J. Cr+q Wil l iam J . Casey Director of Central Intelligence SFrPFT Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 25X1 2bAl 25X1 25X1 25X1 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 UNCLASSIFIED SUBJECT: Selected National Security Issues Book Corrections Intended for Accuracy's Sake Page 14, 6th bullet: "(European economies grew 2.4 percent in 1983; the recast r 1984 is 4.5 percent)". COMMENT: Although we don't know the source of these numbers, we would point out.that the OECD forcast are 1.3 percent in 1983 and 2.3 percent in 1984. Page 22, 9th bullet: This bullet suggests that our peacekeeping effort in Lebanon stoppe the daily slaughter of innocent civilians." We think it would be more accurate to say that it reduced the daily slaughter. Page 29, 5th bullet: In the sentence: "The February 1984 non-aggression pact between out Africa and Mozambique and the April 1984 agreement providing for disengagement and withdrawal of South African forces from Angola," February 1984 should actually be March 1984 and the reference to April 1984 should be to February 1984. Page 31: In the first partial tic change February 1984 to March 1984 and April 1984 to February 1984. Page 34, 5th bullet: In the sentence "There have been no military coups since July 80 in Latin America]." strike this phrase in as much as there have been two military coups--one in Guatemala and one in Boliva--since that date. Page 35, 5th bullet: This bullet refers to the aggresssion of Nicaraguan forces which are said to "number 100,000 persons; we would suggest that this read Nicaraguan forces, which number 100,000 persons including reserves." Page 43, 7th bullet: For the sentence: "During 1983, international terrorism took an appalling toll in human life--including 274 Americans who died in 393 separate incidents." --we suggest you substitute the following: "During 1983 international terrorism took an appalling toll in human life. In that year alone Americans were either the targets or incidental victims of 270 terrorist attacks. 271 US citizens died as a result of terrorism." Page 43, 8th bullet: For the sentences: "In recent years we have seen a new p enomenon--t a direct use of terror by foreign states. State terrorism accounts for the majority of terrorist murders and assassinations." --we suggest that these be rewritten as follows: "In recent years we have seen a growing phenomenon--the direct use of terror by foreign states. State terrorism accounts for an increasing number of terrorist murders and assassinations." IINri ASSTFTFn Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 UNCLASSIFIED Page 44, 3rd bullet: In the sentence: "American citizens, including diplomats an military personnel, have been the victims of 40 percent of the terrorist incidents over the past decade." --we suggest the phrase "40 percent of the terrorist incidents" be changed to read "a major share of the terrorist incidents." Page 46, 4th bullet: The phrase that reads "We have received evidence of possible Soviet non-compliance with these agreements and with the limited test ban treaty." --should read "evidence of likely Soviet non-compliance with these agreements and with the limited test ban treaty." Page 55, 7th bullet: In the sentence that reads "At least two of these systems feature weapons with ranges of 400 kilometers that can threaten strategically important US land targets." --change the last phrase "strategically important US land targets" to "coastal US cities." Page 60, 2nd bullet: Change the last phrase "electronic warfare (jamming) caps > ity against space systems" to "and the technological capability for electronic warfare (jamming) against space systems." UNCLASSIFIED Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 NOTE FOR: 9 August 1984 A 84 FROM: SA/DCI/IA SUBJECT: Selected National Security Issues Book During your absence the attached publication was received from Bud McFarlane. It is intended as a guide for Administration spokesmen on key foreign policy issues. McFarlane requests your views on this package before the end of August. I have taken the liberty of farming this out to the experts and have asked them for their thoughts from two perspectives. First, does it contain classified information and second, is it factually correct? With those comments in hand I drafted the attached letter for your signature. There was only one security problem but several relatively minor factual errors. Hope this helps STAT Attachment Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 THE WHITE MOUSE 6194 Add-on PITTJ August 18, 1984 7027 MEMORANDUM FOR THE HONORABLE WILLIAM CASEY Director of Central Intelligence SUBJECT: Selected National Security Issues Book Attached is a draft of the Selected National Security Issues book which we have compiled as an aid to Administration spokesmen. We plan to update the book on a regular basis. We would very much appreciate your comments by the end of August before we finalize this version. Robe C. MdFarlane Attachment Selected National Security Issues Book Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 ' M1,4% ArT Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 SELECTED NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES August 1984 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA` RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 This is a compilation of selected national security issues, national objectives, Administration accomplishments during the past four years, and key talking points for each issue. We selected these particular issues not only because of their significance in national security affairs, but also because of their high interest. This document is not intended to be a comprehensive or in-depth review of our national security policy. However, we do hope that it serves a useful purpose by providing insight into our selected national security policies. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Selected National Security Issues August 1984 Page Overview ....................................................1 Regional Issues The Soviet Union ..................................... .6 Eastern Europe .........................................10 Western Europe ........................................13 Japan... ... ..........................................16 Peoples Republic of China .............................18 East Asia/Pacific Basin ............................... 20 Israel/Arab States/Lebanon ............................22 Iran-Iraq War .........................................24 Afghanistan/South Asia ................................26 North Africa ..........................................28 Africa: Security .....................................29 Africa: Development ..................................32 Latin America/Caribbean ...............................34 International Economics ...............................37 International Energy ..................................41 Terrorism .............................................43 Arms Control .......................................... 45 Deterrence ............................................49 Strategic Modernization ...............................50 ICBM Modernization ..... ...... .... .. ...............53 Nuclear-Armed Sea-Launched Cruise missile .............55 Strategic Defense Initiative .... .....................57 ASAT Development and Arms Control .....................59 Space .................................................61 Military Capability/Readiness .........................64 Nuclear Weapons Modernization in NATO .................67 Non-First-Use of Nuclear Weapons ......................69 Technology Transfer ...................................71 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 SELECTED NATIONAL SECURITY ISSUES OVERVIEW The two most important foreign policy questions any Administration faces are: o What does America stand for? Answers to these were increasingly in doubt in the 70's. They are no longer. By providing clear answers we have helped to make the world a safer place and to keep it safe in the future. The Starting Point By January 1981, international affairs had come to seem especially troubling for Americans. The reason was simple -- the actions of our leadership had raised doubts, around the world and for our own people, about basic questions like: o Military security: Would the U.S. continue to get weaker or regain her strength? o Domestic economy: Would we be able to lick the problem of inflation and low growth? o International economy: Would we continue to work for free trade or retreat into self-defeating protectionism? o Arms control: Would we continue to accept one-sided agreements or insist on equality and real reductions? o Alliances: Would we stand by our friends and be able to get them to follow through on commitments to us? o Regional crises: Would the U.S. continue to lose the influence necessary for promoting regional stability and peace? Was it still better to be a friend of the U.S. than Soviet Union? A President must act. And he must be prepared to give clear answers to these question. He can't expect to protect America's interests by: o Claiming the problems we face are too hard, o Pretending that Cuban troops roaming around the Third World are a "stabilizing" force, o Offering our friends just enough help to fail, or o Settling slowly but surely for second best. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 2 If this is how we act, it's absolutely clear what we'll get. The Carter Administration claimed the invasion of Afghanistan opened its eyes to the danger of Soviet expansion, but then gave so little help to Pakistan -- the country most threatened by the invasion -- that it was rejected as "peanuts." Nothing isolates America more than weakness and unreliability. Accomplishments The job the American people asked us to do was to rebuild, and make the world a safer place again. This is precisely what we've done. The Soviet aggression has not claimed one square inch of territory since 1981. We have made clear and steady progress in reversing the global trends that we inherited. And we have worked to restore the strength on which successful American diplomacy and effective agreements depend: o In Europe ope we and our allies stood up -- united -- to the most _intense campaign of Soviet intimidation in 25 years. o On arms control we've shown the way with proposals that, for a change, would really increase our security. We've put more elements of the East-West military equation on the table than any previous Administration. o Our own recovery and the strategy we and our allies forged at the Williamsburg summit are helping to revive the international economy. We are showing that it can be done without resorting to trade-war tactics. o In the Middle East, we have presented the most far-reaching peace plan ever put forward by the U.S. And our friends know they can count on us; one sign of the change -- both sides in Israel's elections claimed they would have the best relations with America. o In Central America, we've met the challenge of military subversion and expansionism. We've helped the first democratic government of El Salvador in years to protect itself; working with Caribbean nations, we helped return the government of Grenada to its people. o In Africa we have been diplomatic mediators, helping to bring about the first non-aggression agreements ever between South Africa and her neighbors, and using our influence to seek solutions to problems rather than confrontation. o We have united the free world against repression in Poland and the Soviet war of conquest in Afghanistan. There s a powerful message in the fact that most of the world's Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 3 insurgencies are now fighting against the Soviet Union or Soviet clients. These are the true national liberation movements of our time. o The President's personal diplomacy has built the best relations our country has ever had with Japan and China. Good relations with each of these Asian powers has not been at the expense of bad relations with the other. We are working with both to improve their ability to defend themselves. o We are reaching out to all friendly nations of the Pacific Basin, to seek enhanced economic and security ties wits this dynamic region so vital to America's future. o We have made dramatic progress in working with others to curb the spread of nuclear weapons to new states and to unstable regions of the world. o We no longer fear energy shortages -- oil imports are way down, our reserves are high, and we've forged effective emergency energy agreements with our allies. o We have taken control of the tide of strategic technology to the USSR, eliminated preferential credit terms for the Soviets, and reduced the risk of European dependence on Soviet energy. This is where America stands. And because what we have achieved is deep and durable, it opens the door to still broader opportunities in the years ahead. Next Steps: Looking Ahead America is stronger today than four years ago. But we didn't restore our strength for strength's sake. What America stands for is what it should always stand for -- peace, prosperity and democracy. And it has to do more than treat these as slogans -- it has to know what it takes to get there, and have the vision to set bold goals. We've shown we can do that, but the American people deserve to know what the agenda for the next four years will be. Peace. We are all for peace. Our people are entitled to security. The question is how to turn rhetoric into results. -- Conduct relations with the Soviet Union based on strict reciprocity and true restraint. Seek and achieve Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 4 agreements based on real reductions in nuclear forces. Our proposals are still on the table; we think the Soviets will be back. -- Affirm -our long-term commitment to end mankind's terrible reliance on nuclear weapons, by exploring the technology of strategic defense (and exploring the willingness of the Soviet Union to work with us on it), and by improving the conventional capabilities of this country and our allies. -- Seek immediate breakthroughs in other areas where peace is at risk: e.g., preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons to new countries, turning back the tide of international terrorism, resolving dangerous regional wars, and showing to countries that have looked to the Soviet Union the viability of the democratic, free enterprise alternative. Prosperity. Stirrings in the international economy reflect our own vibrant recovery. How to assure that this is not just a blip? -- Continue the responsible policies at home that have put us back on our feet. This is central to worldwide growth, but also to other goals. The discipline we showed in attacking problems has increased confidence in America across the board. -- This can be the basis of a second goal: reaching and implementing a world consensus on free market policies to assure an enduring economic recovery. In particular, focus on liberalized trade and financial stability. -- Put the protectionist temptation behind us. An open world economy is the best -- only -- way to sustain a recovery in which whole world participates. We want to get others to "swear off" too by reducing barriers to investment, etc. -- Solve the international debt problem in a way that treats the disease not just the symptoms. We are already helping democratic friends like Mexico and Argentina work their way out of their crisis, and on conditions that will require responsible economic management in the future. Democracy. America believes in a future of democratic possibilities, and knows that in the long run democracy is the best peace program we have to offer. Progress -- 90% of Latin America's people now live in countries that are democratic or on Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 5 a transition timetable. And countries that seemed to have no hope of democracy -- like Argentina and Guatemala -- have made major breakthroughs. -- Make the Americas the hemisphere of democracy in this decade. The steadiness of this Administration's policies is one part of making this possible. The recommendations of the bipartisan Kissinger Commission on Central America must be a further pledge to this process. Issue the challenge of democracy to nations around the world, doing what we can to encourage trends toward democracy and to discourage those who would repress their people or help others whose formula for government is repression instead of democracy. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 6 REGIONAL ISSUES SOVIET UNION Issue: How can the United States deter further Soviet direct and indirect aggression and reduce the risk of a U.S.-Soviet war? Objectives: o Reduce, and eventually eliminate, the use and threat of force in solving international disputes; o Reduce the vast stockpiles of armaments in the world, particularly nuclear weapons, on a balanced and verifiable basis; o Establish a better working relationship with the Soviet Union, one marked by greater cooperation and understanding; and o Deter Soviet aggression and to facilitate negotiation of agreements which would reduce tension and diminish the threat of war. In pursuing these objectives, our approach is based on three guiding principles: o Realism, which means that we must recognize the nature of the world we live in and the Soviet system, and must not sweep problems under the rug, but must deal with them forthrightly. o Strength, which is more than military power; it is an amalgam of political unity and will, economic health, and an adequate defense. o Dialogue, which means that we are prepared to discuss the problems that divide us and to work for practical and fair solutions on the basis of mutual compromise. Accomplishments: o The world is safer today than it was four years ago. Our ability to deter aggression is being restored, and the growing tide of Soviet direct and indirect aggression we saw in the 1970's has receded. o Not one square inch of additional territory has fallen to communist aggression since 1981. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 7 o The Soviet Union has also avoided actions which could cause direct conflict between us -- as opposed to what happened, for instance, in 1973, when Soviet preparations to intervene directly in the Middle East caused us to go on a world-wide strategic alert. - o our World alliances and traditional friendships, essential to deterring Soviet aggression, have been repaired and are sound. o NATO's action in backing the deployment of INF missiles in Europe to counter the threat of the Soviet SS-20's is a case in point. o We have created a sound basis for realistic and peaceful management of our relations with the Soviet Union. o We have placed far-reaching and ambitious arms reduction proposals on the table. o We have moved to place our working relationship on a more businesslike footing, and to increase contacts between our societies. o We have made it clear that our cooperation with the Soviet Union will depend importantly on Soviet compliance with existing agreements; including those on arms control, human rights, and other major issues. o We have established a pattern of consultation on regional issues. Despite our fundamental disagreements on many of these, consultations help us and the Soviets to avoid actions which could escalate into direct conflict. o we have in place a policy designed for the long term, since management of our relations with the Soviet Union must be steady and must avoid the rapid fluctuations of the past, which weakened our ability to defend our interests. It is based upon a realistic assessment of the Soviet Union, and on the recognition that we must preserve peace between us as we work toward solving problems. Talking Points: o Our policy vis-a-vis the Soviet Union is aimed at achieving a reduction in the use of force, a reduction in nuclear and other armaments, and a better U.S.-Soviet working relationship. We also seek to deter further Soviet direct and indirect aggression in the world. o During the 1970's the USSR increased its military power far beyond its defensive needs and used force and the threat of force to expand its control over other countries. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 8 o Either directly or through surrogates the Soviets attempted to establish communist regimes in Africa (Angola, Ethiopia), in Asia (Vietnam, Kampuchea and Laos), in Latin America and the Caribbean (Nicaragua, El Salvador and Grenada), and actually invaded a neutral country (Afghanistan). They turned Communist Cuba into a base for aggression in Latin America and Africa. At the same time, they attempted to undermine NATO by deploying SS-20 nuclear missiles against Western Europe. o This pattern of aggression not only posed a threat to many independent nations, but ultimately to American security and to the American way of life. o During the same period, the Soviet Union reached parity with us, and in some areas pulled ahead of us, in strategic nuclear capabilities. o This Administration has moved decisively to contain Soviet expansionism. No country has fallen to Soviet aggression since 1981 and, despite its frequent saber-rattling and truculence, Moscow has been more cautious in its military behavior over the past four years. This, we believe, has happened because we have repaired our deterrent capacity and strengthened our alliances. o At the same time, we have created a sound basis for realistic and peaceful management of our overall relationship with the Soviet Union. In the past four years, the United States has made dozens of specific proposals to the Soviet Union which, if accepted, would reduce tensions, reduce arms levels and provide for a better and more realistic working relationship. o We have proposed conducting a joint simulated space rescue mission. o We have agreed to upgrade the "hotline" for crisis communications between our capitals. o We are discussing again the proposal to open consulates in New York and Kiev. o We are discussing extending our agreements on avoiding incidents at sea and on cooperation in fishing. o We have renewed our agreement on consular, economic, industrial, and technical cooperation. o We have proposed reviving agreements on cooperation in environmental protection, housing, health, and agriculture. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 9 o we are seeking to resolve differences on our maritime boundary off Alaska. o we are proposing to discuss potential nuclear terrorist incidents and search and rescue procedures for those lost at sea, and improving joint military and diplomatic communications. o Moscow has, however, refused since December 1983 to negotiate with us on reducing nuclear arms. We believe that it is in the interest of both countries to negotiate verifiable agreements for lower arms levels, and to improve our relationship in other respects. We will continue our efforts, and believe that the Soviet leadership will eventually come to understand that such negotiations are in its interest as well. o Until the Soviets show a readiness to negotiate realistically, it is essential for us to continue our defense modernization program. If this program is curtailed without verifiable agreements to constrain threatening Soviet programs, the Soviet leaders will have little incentive to negotiate, but will simply wait in the hope of achieving their objectives without any concessions on their part. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 10 EASTERN EUROPE Issue: Given U.S.-Soviet tensions and the Soviet campaign to reimpose more stringent controls on Eastern Europe, how can we maintain and improve our relations with East European countries? Objectives: o Differentiate our policies toward East European countries to encourage domestic liberalization, diversity, and more autonomous foreign policies. o Promote security through enhanced trade, economic and political cooperation. o Stimulate and further develop the East-West dialogue through cultural and scientific exchanges, international meetings, high-level visits, bilateral councils, and government-to-government contacts. o Help foster genuine national reconciliation in Poland that includes dialogue among the Government, Church, and the people; restoration of free trade unions; implementation of economic reform; and an enhanced role for the Church. o Maintain our strong support for an independent, unified, non-aligned, economically viable, and stable Yugoslavia. Accomplishments: o In spite of U.S.-Soviet tensions and tighter Soviet controls in East Europe, we have succeeded in preventing the deterioration of U.S. relations with several East European countries and, in fact, have strengthened bilateral ties with Hungary and Romania through a policy of differentiation. o We have improved U.S.-Hungarian relations significantly, as manifested in a series of mutual high-level visits, resolution of all family reunification cases, Hungary's adherence to the conditions of MFN status, and our support for their membership in the IMF in 1982. o We have improved the special U.S.-Romanian relationship through frequent exchanges and mutually beneficial political and economic steps. Romania has continued its independent foreign policy -- most visibly in its criticism of Moscow's new nuclear deployments and its decision to ignore the Soviet Olympic boycott. Also, by Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 11 establishing the U.S.-Romanian Human Rights Roundtable, we have been able to communicate successfully the importance we attach to immigration and overall human rights issues. o The Vice President's trip to Eastern Europe in September 1983 served as a visible manifestation of our differentiation policy and furthered bilateral dialogue with key East European leaders. His visits to Yugoslavia, Romania, and Hungary provided a foundation for durable improvement in U.S.-East European relations, and his speech in Vienna during the trip was the first clear, high-level articulation of our differentiation policy. o Our sanctions policy toward Poland has contributed to the recent moderation displayed by Warsaw (the declaration of amnesty for all political prisoners); has served and will continue to serve as an effective lever to encourage the Polish Government toward more concrete progress (economic reform, restoration of free trade unions, etc.); and has also enabled us to respond to positive measures taken by the Polish Government with equally significant steps. o Over the last three years, we have provided over $100 million in humanitarian aid to Poland. Specifically, the Administration has assisted voluntary agencies (CRS, CARE, and Project Hope) by providing food, medicine and other humanitarian aid to the Polish people through non-governmental channels. o We have bolstered our bilateral relations with Yugoslavia through such steps as the multilateral "Friends of Yugoslavia" economic assistance package in which the U.S. played a key role; and hosting the visit of President Spiljak to the U.S. in 1984 -- the first top-level Yugoslav visit to the U.S. since 1978. Talking Points: o We have successfully maintained, through our policy of differentiation, good bilateral relations with several East European countries, despite overall East-West tensions and persistent Soviet efforts to tighten political controls. o We have rejected any notion of there having been a "lawful" division of Europe. There was no agreement at Yalta to divide Europe into "spheres of influence." Rather, the Soviet Union pledged itself to grant full independence to Poland and other states in East Europe, and to hold free elections. The Soviet violation of these obligations is the root cause of East-West tensions today. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 STAT Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 13 WESTERN EUROPE Issue: How can the United States most effectively expand and strengthen our longstanding and deep political, economic, and military ties with and interests in Western Europe? Objectives: o Strengthen the NATO Alliance and our political and military relations with other Western European nations. o Neutralize Soviet efforts to decouple the U.S. from its West European Allies. o Make effective and meaningful arms control an essential element in strengthening peace and security. o Stimulate further the economic recovery of our European Allies and friends. o Promote closer U.S.-West European coordination of trade and financial policies. o Ensure that we and our Allies have access to sufficient energy supplies to meet Western security needs. o Curb the flow of militarily significant technologies, products, and resources from the West to the Soviet Union and its Allies. o Devise an effective U.S.-Allied policy to combat international terrorism. Accomplishments: o The Administration has put relations with our European friends and Allies on a stronger and steadier course. This was partly accomplished via frequent meetings between the President and key European leaders, including two Presidential trips to Europe. o We have worked closely with our Allies to develop coordinated policies for addressing problems beyond the NATO area. This has included especially close consultations with regard to the Middle East and the Iran-Iraq war, where we have reached agreement within the International Energy Agency on how to handle a major reduction in oil supplies. This has helped to calm the oil market and keep the price of oil down. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 14 o In the absence of an arms control agreement, we have begun deploying INF missiles in Europe, thereby beginning to restore the theater nuclear balance upset by Soviet deployments of SS-20 missiles. o INF deployment, begun after the closest and most intensive consultations in NATO history, has helped neutralize Soviet efforts to decouple the U.S. from Europe and has sent Moscow a strong signal of Alliance resolve and solidarity. o At the same time, we and our Allies remain fully committed toward achieving significant arms reduction. The Alliance recently signaled its continuing interest in moving in this direction by deciding unilaterally to withdraw an additional 1400 nuclear warheads from Europe. o we have played a major role in developing measures to improve NATO's conventional defenses through better utilization of emerging technologies and enhanced arms cooperation, as in the U.S.-FRG Patriot program. o The Administration has successfully renewed military basing agreements with Spain, Portugal, and Greece that are vital to our deterrence strategy. o The U.S. economic recovery has helped stimulate robust non-inflationary economic growth in West European countries. (European economies grew 2.4% in 1983; the forecast for 1984 is 4.5%.) o Agreement has been reached to discuss GATT and a new round of trade negotiations, including trade with and among developing countries. These initiatives will strengthen the economic expansion in the U.S. and Western Europe, and help spread the recovery to the LDCs. o Together with our Allies, we have begun to develop a comprehensive approach to resolving the world debt problem. o we have agreed with our Allies not to subsidize the Soviet economy or aid Soviet military expansion by offering preferential trading terms or easy credits. o We have agreed with our Allies to restrict the flow of products, materials, and technology which would increase Warsaw Pact military capabilities. o We have helped to foster a more balanced and realistic understanding among our Allies of the Soviet threat and the means by which the Soviets seek to achieve their aims. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 15 o We have agreed with the Europeans on a strategy to reduce European dependency on the Soviet Union as an energy supplier. o We have reached agreement with our Allies to explore the possibility of a joint space station. o We have agreed with our Allies on concrete steps to combat international terrorism. Talking Points: o Our objectives in our relations with our Western European Allies and friends have been to expand and strengthen our political, economic, and military cooperation; to assist in spurring their economic recovery; and to negate Soviet efforts to sow discord among us. o The Western Alliance system has become strong again. We have excellent relations with all of our Allies, and President Reagan has developed strong personal ties with many European leaders. o We are working closely with our Allies in a number of areas of fundamental importance to us all. These include: planning cooperative responses to a possible oil shortage; resolving the world debt problem; restricting the flow of sensitive technology to the Soviet Union and its Allies; reducing European dependency on Soviet energy; exploring the possibility of a joint space station; and combating international terrorism. o The Alliance is in fundamental agreement regarding the nature of the challenge posed by the Soviet Union and its Allies. Despite Soviet threats, NATO is deploying INF missiles to counter the SS-20 deployments, has reached a new consensus on preventing the flow of militarily significant technologies to the East, and has undertaken a program to enhance NATO's conventional defense capability. o The U.S. economic expansion has provided the impetus for robust non-inflationary growth in West Europe. Other joint initiatives, designed to eliminate protectionist tendencies and promote trade with developed as well as less-developed nations, will continue to strengthen the economic expansion in the U.S. and West Europe and help spread the recovery to the LDCs. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 16 JAPAN Issue: How should the United States manage the increasingly complex relationship with Japan? Objectives: o Maintain and strengthen our excellent bilateral relations. o Encourage Tokyo to meet its declared commitments for self-defense. o Continue to manage our economic and trade relations in a careful and sustained manner. o Enhance our ability to compete openly with the Japanese in high-technology. o Seek Japanese support for our key security and other policies in other parts of the world. o Urge Japan to import more U.S. energy. Accomplishments: o The President and Prime Minister Nakasone have established a close personal working relationship which has led to increased U.S.-Japanese cooperation in economic and security areas. o In the trade area, Japan has liberalized its market to enable greater import of U.S. goods, including beef and citrus. o The Japanese have faithfully abided by the voluntary auto restraint agreement, limiting their export of automobiles to the U.S. o The President and Prime Minister Nakasone have agreed to a long term energy cooperation program which will mean thousands of newly created U.S. jobs and greater security for both nations. o The Finance Ministers of each country have endorsed a plan to further open Japanese financial markets, which, by "internationalizing" the yen, should improve the yen-dollar relationship over the longer term. o In the defense area, Japan has agreed to an expanded budgetary commitment which will enable them to keep their regional defense commitments. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Talking Points: o The U.S.-Japan relationship remains the foundation of U.S. policy in the Pacific. o The President's trip to Japan in November 1983 and the Vice President's follow-up in May 1984 strengthened U.S.- Japanese ties and the partnership for peace existing between our two countries. o Japan has opened further its trading and financial markets, has committed itself to importing more energy from the United States over the longer-term, and has agreed to increase its regional defense expenditures. o We are pleased that the Japanese have allocated more funds to improve their defense establishment, and that they have committed themselves to pursue more market-opening measures. Nonetheless, Japan has an obligation to take on even greater responsibility in both the military and international economic areas. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 18 PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA Issue: How can the United States facilitate continued, steady improvement in a long-term relationship with China? Objectives: o Provide conditions conducive to continued growth in our cultural, economic, and trade relations. o Increase our dialogue with Beijing on political and strategic matters of joint concern. o Demonstrate to the Chinese the similarity of our global objectives. o Enhance our mutually beneficial relationship with China without compromising our moral and legal commitments to the people of Taiwan. Accomplishments: o The highly successful visits of Premier Zhao to the U.S. and President Reagan to China reflect both countries' strong determination to improve their ties. o Over the past three years, we have signed a number of agreements which will lead to expanded commercial and cultural ties, including most recently a tax treaty, which will avoid double taxation and facilitate joint commercial ventures, and a protocol on cooperation management, industrial science, and technology. o The U.S. has liberalized controls over exporting high- technology products such as computers and laboratory instruments to China. o The U.S. and China have begun a limited but important cooperative relationship designed to strengthen Chinese military defensive capability. o The U.S. welcomed the Chinese to the 1984 Olympics after a hiatus of 32 years, along with a team representing the People of Taiwan. Talking Points: o With Premier Zhao's visit to the U.S. last January and the President's return visit to China in April, we have shown the world how important the relationship is to both countries and how determined Washington and Beijing are to Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 19 strengthen it. Under President Reagan's leadership, our ties with China have become closer than they have been at any time since our re-establishment of relations in 1972. o We are realistic about our relationship, frankly acknowledging the fundamental differences in ideology and institutions between our two societies. We do not minimize our differences, but neither are we dominated by them. o We seek to enhance our mutually beneficial relationship with China in the areas of cultural, economic and trade relations, without compromising our moral and legal commitments to the people of Taiwan. o U.S.-Chinese cooperation and understanding contribute to peace and stability in Asia and in the world. We share many of the same foreign policy objectives. We have begun a limited but important cooperative arrangement designed to strengthen Chinese defensive capability. o President Reagan feels that bilateral progress in five areas -- trade, technology, investment, student exchanges, and exchanges of scientific and managerial expertise is particularly promising in assisting China's modernization efforts. o our trade with each other shows great promise for the future, particularly in areas such as machinery, technology, oil equipment, petroleum, agricultural, and manufacturing products. o Americans have invested almost $700 million in joint ventures and offshore oil exploration in China, making the U.S. China's largest foreign investor. Some 50 Chinese firms have established offices or branches in the United States, and China has invested in several joint ventures in the U.S. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 20 EAST ASIA/PACIFIC BASIN Issue: What should the United States do to facilitate the growth of secure, prosperous, and politically stable nations, closely associated with U.S. principles and goals, in Korea, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific Basin? Objectives: o Continue developing a comprehensive Pacific Basin development strategy that will enhance regional cooperation with the U.S. throughout the area. o Support the continued strengthening of U.S. economic, political, and security ties with the members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). o Deter North Korean aggression by continuing to provide adequate security assistance to the Republic of Korea. o Encourage direct talks between North and South Korea while discouraging efforts to involve the U.S. in them. o Resolve satisfactorily the POW/MIA issue with Vietnam. o Maintain our historically close ties with Australia and New Zealand and enhance regional security cooperation under the ANZUS treaty organization. o Encourage the development of friendly, democratic Pacific Island nations with foreign policies supportive of U.S. interests. Accomplishments: o The President's trips to Asia in 1983 and 1984, the Vice President's trip last May, and Secretary Shultz's visit this summer clearly affirmed our commitment to a policy of close cooperation with the countries of the region. o We have moved well along with our friends and Allies in the region in the process of forging a Pacific Basin development strategy. The endeavor was discussed regionally for the first time at ASEAN's July meeting in Jakarta, where the members agreed to concentrate first on human resources development throughout the area. o We have actively supported the economic development of the ASEAN countries and have established excellent bilateral relations with each of them. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 21 o U.S.-Korean relations are excellent, security ties have never been stronger, and our expanding economic relationship is taking on increasing significance. o This Administration has established close personal ties at all levels with Australian and New Zealand officials. o Bilateral treaties of friendship with four Pacific nations -- the Cook Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, and New Zealand (for Tokelan) -- were signed by the President and ratified by the Senate. The treaties resolve long-standing conflicting territorial claims and preserve U.S. fishing rights and other interests. Talking Points: o The nations of the Pacific Basin represent the most dynamic and fastest-growing economies in the Free World. The President has noted that: "I see America and our Pacific neighbors as nations of the future going forward together in a mighty enterprise to build dynamic growth economies and a safer world." o We have strongly supported ASEAN's economic and political activities and have simultaneously increased our security cooperation with the individual member states. We have encouraged the ASEAN countries to continue their forward- looking economic policies based on free trade. We are encouraging increased U.S. trade and investment in the region. o We are supporting ASEAN nations in forging a Pacific Basin development concept. o The U.S. strongly backs ASEAN's quest for a negotiated settlement in Kampuchea. At the same time we have made it clear that the POW/MIA matter remains the most important bilateral issue between ourselves and Vietnam. This issue must be fully resolved to our satisfaction before there can be any discussion of normalizing our relations with Hanoi. o The United States will maintain its security commitments to the Republic of Korea. We will continue, however, to urge North and South Korea to ease tensions through bilateral negotiations. o We conducted a major review of the ANZUS Treaty in 1983 when a new government came to power in Australia. The review reaffirmed the organization's relevance and importance to the security of all three partners. That relevance and importance is unaffected, we believe, by changes in the political parties exercising power in any of the member countries. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 22 ISRAEL/ARAB STATES/LEBANON Issue: How can the United States effectively improve prospects for a lasting peace between Israel and her Arab neighbors and assist Lebanon in attaining unity and stability? Objectives: o Resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict through a just and lasting settlement, achieved by direct negotiations among the parties to the conflict. o Facilitate the improvement of relations between Egypt and Israel and their adherence to the Camp David accords. o Ensure the security of Israel within defensible and recognized international borders. o Support the development of a strong, independent central government in Lebanon. o Obtain the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon. Accomplishments: o The United States took the lead in setting up the Multinational Force and Observers in the Sinai. The success of this venture made it possible to return the Sinai to Egypt. o The President's peace initiative of September 1, 1982 set forth a balanced set of positions which the parties to the Arab-Israeli conflict know the U.S. will stand by as soon as negotiations are resumed. o The agreement of May 17, 1983 providing for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon, although since abrogated by Lebanon under Syrian pressure, was achieved as the result of strenuous efforts by the United States. o We did the right thing by pursuing our peacekeeping effort in Lebanon which helped preserve a relative peace for almost fifteen months andistopped the daily slaughter of innocent civilians. rcdt o The presence of our Marines and the Multinational Force in Beirut also gave the government of President Amin Gemayel a sorely needed opportunity to organize and reduce the fighting in his country. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 o We reached agreement with Israel late last year to set up a Joint Political Military Group to plan and coordinate strategic cooperation against the Soviet threat and to begin negotiations leading to the establishment of a free trade area. We continue to make progress on both fronts. Talking Points: o Israel and her Arab neighbors have been in conflict since the State of Israel was founded in 1948. Ever since that time, it has been our policy both to help Israel survive and defend itself and to work with Israel and the Arab States to help them resolve their differences peacefully. This Administration has reaffirmed and re-emphasized these two key aspects of our overall Middle East policy. This can best be achieved through direct negotiations. o As a nation, we have invested a great deal in working for peace in the Middle East. Although not all these investments have yet paid tangible dividends, they serve to demonstrate our deep interest in helping bring peace, freedom, and prosperity to all the peoples of the region -- goals we intend to continue supporting to the best of our ability. o American-Israeli relations have been on the upswing since early last year. Cooperation between us reached a new high level when we agreed at the time of Prime Minister Shamir's visit here last November to work closely together against Soviet intrusion into the region and to establish a free trade area. o We support Lebanese efforts to obtain the withdrawal of all foreign forces from their country. We believe that any settlement between Lebanon and Israel should be reached through direct negotiations and should ensure the security of Israel's northern border while respecting Lebanese sovereignty. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 24 IRAN-IRAQ WAR Issue: How can the United States contribute to international efforts to improve the security of the Persian Gulf region? Objectives: o Support efforts aimed at bringing an early end to the Iran-Iraq war and at preventing the spread of the war to the Persian Gulf and other countries. o Assist our friends in the Gulf to meet their legitimate self-defense needs in the face of the threatening Gulf War. o Prevent Soviet efforts to exploit the conflict and further destabilize the region. o Ensure that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to international shipping. o Prepare for further escalation of the war into the Gulf in order to minimize its impact should it occur and to lessen the attractiveness to either belligerent of striking Western oil and shipping interests. o Urge our Allies to cooperate in the event of a crisis to avoid panic oil-buying and subsequent oil price increases and shortages. Accomplishments: o By providing U.S. AWACS aircraft and surface-to-air missile systems, we have demonstrated to our friends in the Gulf that we are committed to helping them meet their legitimate self-defense needs. o We have encouraged restraint by both combatants and helped prevent a widening of the war. o In response to instability in the Persian Gulf, the U.S. has led a process within the International Energy Agency to improve international energy emergency preparedness. An IEA decision (July, 1984) calls for a coordinated stock draw in the event of a crisis coupled with other measures (demand restraint, increases in indigenous production) to avoid a rush to the spot market. In addition, all nations which do not have adequate stocks have agreed to make best efforts to increase them. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 25 o The Soviets have not yet improved their position in this important region. Talking Points: o The United States is and has been concerned about this four-year-old conflict because it threatens the security of the other states in the Persian Gulf and the flow of Gulf oil to the West. o We support efforts to prevent a widening of the Gulf War and to bring about a negotiated settlement. We have worked closely with our Allies in efforts to contain the conflict and to prepare for any temporary disruption of the flow of oil from the region. o We are committed to helping our friends in the Gulf meet their legitimate self-defense needs and to help keep the Gulf open to the shipping of non-belligerents. o We are attempting -- so far successfully -- to avoid direct Soviet or other external involvement that would further destabilize the region. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 26 AFGHANISTAN/SOUTH ASIA Issue: What should the United States do to help end the Soviet military occupation of Afghanistan, enhance Pakistani security against external aggression, and encourage peaceful relations among all South Asian nations? Objectives: o Support U.N. resolutions calling for Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan. o Assist in obtaining the restoration of Afghanistan's neutral and non-aligned status, self-determination for the Afghan people, and the opportunity for Afghan refugees to return home in peace, freedom, and honor. o Improve bilateral relations with all South Asian countries. o Promote regional understanding and cooperation in order to reduce the possibility of an all-out arms buildup, especially in nuclear weaponry, in the area. o Assist Pakistan to remain free and secure despite the threats posed by the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. Accomplishments: o We have helped keep the issue of Soviet aggression in Afghanistan before world public opinion; there is overwhelming international condemnation of Soviet behavior there. o The United States has contributed heavily to the support of the 3.4 million Afghan refugees who have fled their homeland; we are the largest contributor to the refugee relief effort in Pakistan. o We have been in the forefront of those nations encouraging a political settlement that would allow the Soviets to withdraw from Afghanistan. o Thanks largely to the provision of $3.2 billion in American aid, Pakistan's security has been enhanced. o We have enhanced our commercial relationship with India and have generally improved bilateral relations with all South Asian countries. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Talking Points: o U.S. policy on South Asia has focused on seeking an end to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, strengthening Pakistan's security against potential Soviet aggression and, promoting regional South Asian peace and understanding. o our position on Afghanistan has been shared by 117 nations which have consistently voted with us on UN General Assembly resolutions regarding Afghanistan. We have also helped promote the search for peace by supporting Pakistan's efforts to seek a political solution to the Afghan dilemma through the good offices of the UN Secretary General. o Our observance of Afghanistan Day has helped international efforts to keep the Afghan issue in the spotlight. o We have made a strong commitment to help Pakistan protect itself, providing it with $3.2 billion over the next several years in economic and military assistance. o We have worked through the International Atomic Energy Agency and other organizations to reduce chances of a rapid escalation in nuclear weapons development in the region. o We have conducted a dialogue at the Head of State level with India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh in the last three years. Our contacts have also continued at other levels. o We have encouraged South Asian countries in general, and India and Pakistan in particular, to develop strong and peaceful relations. o We have supported efforts to improve regional ties such as the South Asia Regional Cooperation forum. We see these efforts as being the best way to build future stability in the area. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 28 NORTH AFRICA Issue: What can the United States do to help curb Libyan aggression and terrorism in North Africa and facilitate the resolution of the Western Sahara conflict? Objectives: o Pressure Libya, through cooperative measures with our friends and allies, to stop using terrorist tactics and military aggression abroad. o Support negotiations aimed at resolving the Western Sahara dispute. o Develop further our commercial ties with Morocco and Tunisia to help these two states economically. o Foster improved relations with Algeria. o Support efforts at rapprochement by the Maghreb states. Accomplishments: o Measures have already been agreed upon with our Allies to contain Libyan terrorism and aggression. U.S. and Allied assistance to Chad and Sudan has helped blunt Libyan destabilization efforts in the region. o Relations with Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria have never been better. Talking Points: o Libyan-sponsored terrorism poses a direct threat to Libya's North African neighbors as well as to many other states. We vigorously oppose such acts and are joining with our friends and Allies in doing everything we can to curtail these activities. o The long struggle between Morocco and the Polisario over control of the Western Sahara remains unresolved. We support efforts to get the contending parties to negotiate an end to the conflict and endorse the resolutions of the Nairobi OAU summits of 1981 and 1982 which specify that the solution to the conflict should include a cease-fire preceding a referendum as an expression of self-determination. o We have improved our relations with Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria and stand ready to assist them in meeting the problems that they face. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 29 AFRICA: SECURITY Issue: How can the United States respond most effectively to requests from friendly African states for help in resisting outside aggression and promoting peaceful solutions to local conflicts? Objectives: o Increase security assistance on a selective basis to those countries under threat of external aggression. o Promote the peaceful resolution of local and regional conflicts through diplomatic means. o Continue working for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from the southern African region as part of our multifaceted initiative to create a security framework under which all states of the region can live in peace. Accomplishments: o We have blunted the Soviet projection of power in Africa. No sizable new influx of Soviet or surrogate forces has occurred, and Moscow has gained no new African allies since 1981. Mozambique and other African governments allied with the Soviets in the 1970's have begun dialogues with us and have moved away from Soviet influence toward genuine non-alignmeet. /. 6r o We have been a catalyst acilitati}t4 the peaceful resolution 6f local disputes Specific examples include the improvement in relati0 s between Kenya and Somalia, the F.h e.xy 1984 non-aggression pact between South Africa and Mozambique, and the hpri~ 1984 agreement providing for disengagement and withdrawal of South African forces from Angola. o Timely U.S. security assistance helped counter Libyan aggression in Chad and Sudan in 1983 and helped Somalia stop an armed incursion from Soviet-dominated Ethiopia in 1982. o We have obtained agreement by all parties on implementation of the UN plan for Namibia, pending only Angolan agreement on Cuban troop withdrawal. We have established a reputation as an honest broker in our diplomatic work on this most difficult of Africa's problems. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 30 o We have played a quiet but vital part in bringing about general diminution of cross-border violence in southern Africa. o We have been encouraging South Africa to take constructive steps away from apartheid toward true democracy. We have begun programs of support to black trade unions, begun an important effort to provide scholarships to black South African students, and have undertaken a program of financial support to human rights organizations in South Africa. Talking Points: o The United States has a significant geopolitical and strategic stake in the security of the African continent and the seas around it. Our interests are seriously affected when Soviets, Cubans, and Libyans seek to expand their influence in the region by force and by exploitation of instability. o The late 1970's saw Africa become increasingly exploited by the Soviet Union and its allies. Violence in southern Africa and the Horn of Africa was escalating, insurgencies were growing in eight African countries, and cross-border armed raids by opposition groups were occurring elsewhere on the continent. Feeding on these conflicts, the Soviet Union poured almost $5 billion in arms into Ethiopia, Angola, and Mozambique and fielded almost 5,000 military "advisors" in Africa. Two Cuban expeditionary forces, totaling over 40,000 combat troops, were garrisoned in Africa. Libyan-sponsored subversion against neighboring African states was on the increase and a Libyan military force of 8,000 occupied Chad. o Thanks in large part to U.S. policies and efforts in the area, the Soviets have added no new national converts in Africa since 1981 nor have they dispatched new surrogate troop contingents to Africa. Several African governments which were counted as Soviet allies in 1980 have moved toward a real non-alignment. o U.S. military assistance to Africa has increased from $94.7 million (FY 81 actual) to $211.6 million (FY 85 request). The bulk of the program has been converted to grant aid in recognition of the difficult economic situations of the recipients. We nonetheless have maintained a 4:1 ratio of economic assistance to security assistance in Africa in recognition of the fundamental security role economic stability and progress plays. o There has been a significant increase in dialogue among neighboring states in southern Africa. This process has led, with the U.S. acting as a catalyst, to a Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 art 31 non-aggression pact between South African and Mozambique in Fa y 1984 and a landmark force disengagement agreement between South Africa and Angola formalized in Lusaka in . p r-l 1984. o We have undertakin a special regional security initiative for southern Africa. Specific components include a complex diplomatic initiative to lead to an internationally recognized settlement of the Namibia problem and Namibian independence; support for regional economic development; withdrawal of foreign forces from the area; and support for peaceful progress in ending apartheid in South Africa. This initiative is often referred to as "constructive engagement." o There is a growing dynamic for change in South Africa and the last few years have seen important, fundamental changes: institutionalization of black trade unions, legitimization of black residence in urban areas, the enfranchisement of coloreds and Asians, major increases in expenditures for black education, and the beginning of black municipal and local self-government. We have played a quiet but real part in encouraging and facilitating such constructive forces for peaceful, positive change and movement away from racial segregation, separation, and discrimination. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 32 AFRICA: DEVELOPMENT Issue: What should the United States do to help African countries come to grips with their critical economic and developmental problems? Objectives: o Work with other nations and organizations to combat famine by providing food relief assistance. o Induce African governments to make serious and sustained efforts to help themselves by undertaking substantial structural reforms. o Persuade African governments that economic development goals can best be pursued through mechanisms and incentives which incorporate the principles of private enterprise and free trade. Accomplishments: o In three years we have doubled the quantity of emergency foodstuffs shipped to meet specific life-threatening famine problems in Africa, and we have led the world in providing humanitarian aid to African refugees. o In three years we have increased our non-emergency food and developmental aid to Africa by 20 percent, tying this assistance to structural reform and increasing local agricultural productivity. o We have submitted to Congress a new Economic Policy Initiative which calls .for $500 million in funds to support those African governments making the hard reforms and policy changes necessary for recovery. o We have joined the African Development Bank and increased our support to the African Development Fund. o We have placed major stress on the need for private sector development in Africa, recognizing that the unleashing of the indigenous private sector holds the key to long-term economic development. o We have seen major economic reforms take hold in Zaire and Liberia where recovery is beginning. o we have seen agricultural production raised dramatically in Somalia when centralized controls were lifted. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 33 o We have seen every self-described Marxist and Marxist-Leninist government in Africa (except Ethiopia and Angola) approach Western donors for increased aid in return for fundamental reversals in economic policy, including decontrol of the economy and freeing of the private sector. Talking Points: o Virtually all 45 nations of Sub-Saharan Africa, with a rapidly growing population that now totals 400 million, face an economic crisis of stark proportions. Per capita food production has fallen by 20 percent in the last 20 years; real per capita income has decreased 2-3 percent per year over the past three years. A tenacious drought continues to ravage the continent from the Sahel area to South Africa. Refugees number over two million. A recession that has touched every African nation began with the 1979 oil crisis and has not yet ended. o The economic crisis has many causes -- drought, the flow-through effect of recession in the developed world, effects of the 1979 oil price increase, civil wars -- but the World Bank identifies the prime cause as the failure of inappropriate domestic price incentives. Too many African governments have held too long to failed policies which stifle domestic production, chief among them being the rigid hewing to central planning and control precepts and practices. o The unprecedented economic crisis in Africa threatens U.S. interests on several levels. Unless alleviated, African leaders may increasingly look to authoritarian political strategies. The African debt problem, though small compared to other areas, puts strain on the international financial system and defaults could increase that strain. Unchecked crisis will lead to greater famine and civil strife. A weak performance in Africa reduces trade with the West, inhibiting worldwide recovery. o We remain committed to private sector development in Africa, including Western private investment and trade, as the long-term answer to the continent's development needs. We see agricultural self-sufficiency as the first order of economic recovery and development there. We fully support the international financial organizations in requiring structural reforms in return for renewed financial assistance. o The efficiency and success of our efforts so far may be measured by the fact that nearly all the centrally-planned economies in Africa have undertaken positive change in the direction of freeing the private sector. (Only Ethiopia and Angola have not.) Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 34 LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN Issue: How can the United States most effectively assist Latin American and Caribbean democracy, economic improvement, and ability to resist outside aggression and subversion? Objectives: o Encourage, as much as possible, the current trend toward democratic government in the region. o Improve the economic well-being of the free peoples of Latin America and the Caribbean. o Assist friendly, democratic governments and peoples in the region to defend themselves against externally-supported Communist subversion and aggression. o Ensure that the historically close U.S.-Latin American relationship continues. Accomplishments: to 13411 via, o We have provided consistent support and encouragement for democratic institution building: today 26 of 33 countries with 90% of the population are democratic or in transition. Since November 1980 there have been 33 free elections in 24 countries, virtually all with very high voter participation, including 1 Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Brazil, Argentina, andjthe Dominican Republic. ave been"~ inistration has provided tangible support for democratic labor unions and democratic institution-building through programs, such as the new National Endowment for Democracy proposed by President Reagan in 1982 and passed by the Congress in 1983. o Under the leadership of this Administration, U.S. economic assistance to the Latin America-Caribbean region has more than doubled. 70 percent of the U.S. foreign assistance to Central America is economic. o This Administration has taken the lead in formulating two major, comprehensive regional assistance and development programs for the area: the innovative Caribbean Basin Initiative, which offers increased access to the U.S. market for 12 years and can create many jobs; and the President's Initiative for Democracy, Peace, and Development in Central America, implementing the recommendations of the National Bipartisan Commission on Central America in January 1984, now awaiting Congressional action. the Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 35 o We have been working with the area's public and private sectors and the International Monetary Fund to encourage involved parties to work responsibly to resolve the $380 billion Latin American debt problem. o The U.S. has worked diligently through regular and special diplomatic channels to pursue realistic solutions to Central America's problems. Our efforts have included several trips to the region by the President, Vice President, and Secretary of State, and the consecutive appointments of two Presidential Special Envoys to Central America who made a total of 16 trips to the region in the last year. We also have continuously supported the peace-seeking process initiated by the Contadora countries (Mexico, Panama, Colombia, and Venezuela). o Our most dramatic Caribbean accomplishment was to join, in October 1983, with the East Caribbean democracies at their request to rescue their and our citizens in Grenada, remove the Soviet bloc/Cuban presence from Grenada, and facilitate the process leading to the restoration of democratic institutions in Grenada. Since that time, the U.S. has helped the Caribbean democracies maintain a small multinational peacekeeping force on the island to provide security. o Our defense assistance to El Salvador has been modest (about $269 million over the past four years) but has been vitally important to that country's efforts to strengthen its armed forces enough to withstand repeated guerrilla attacks and give democracy a chance to take root. o U.S. military exercises in Honduras and provision of U.S. military training and assistance to Honduran forces have helped deter aggression by Nicaraguan forces, which number 100,000 persons. Talking Points: C o The United States is linked by history, proximity, and special ties of friendship with the 33 independent countries and 380 million people of Latin America and the Caribbean. Objectives of this Administration have been to encourage democracy, support economic improvement, use active diplomacy to solve disputes, and provide security assistance so that governments threatened by Soviet bloc, Cuban, and Nicaraguan subversion could defend their people. o For the region as a whole, a highly encouraging recent trend has been the return of several countries to democratic government. Today, 26 of 33 countries are democratic or in a defined process of democratization. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 36 These account for 90% of the area's population. The Administration has consistently encouraged the process of democratic institution-building in the area. o In Grenada, the United States and the Caribbean democracies rescued a nation from Soviet bloc and Cuban control and internal repression. o Soviet, Cuban, and Nicaraguan-assisted subversion and Communist aggression have created a crisis in Central America, particularly in El Salvador. Continued Communist success would pose the threat, as the President has stated, that "100 million people from Panama to the open border on our south would come under the control of pro-Soviet regimes." We are countering this threat by helping those people to defend themselves. o While our military assistance to the region has been modest, our contribution in economic and developmental help has been substantial. Through the Caribbean Basin Initiative and the President's Initiative for Democracy, Peace, and Development in Central America, our commitment to help speed up the process of economic growth in those areas will become even larger and, we believe, more effective. o we are continuing to work with friendly governments in the region to help them cope with their severe debt problems. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 37 Global Issues International Economics Issue: What should the United States do to help sustain and extend world economic recovery, help debtor nations help themselves, and assist the developing countries to begin to realize substantial, lasting economic growth? Objectives: o Formulate and implement sensible economic policies at home aimed at stemming inflation and government spending. o Develop a Free World consensus on policies designed to achieve enduring, non-inflationary economic recovery, financial stability, and liberalized trade. o Encourage an effective IMF-based economic adjustment process for debtor nations including sufficient private and public financing and selective reschedulings to ease the debt burden on LDC's and to restore conditions for sustainable economic growth. o Heighten Allied attention to the security dimensions of East-West economic relations including the forging of common objectives in NATO, OECD, IEA and COCOM. Accomplishments: o This Administration has succeeded in rebuilding a strong domestic economy which has pulled much of the world out of recession and into recovery: average growth rose from around 1% in 1981 to above 4% for 1984; average inflation of 10% in 1981 was cut to an expected 4.5% this year; 6 million American jobs were created in the past 18 months alone. o A consensus among the Allies has developed which reaffirms the economic policies espoused by President Reagan: market-oriented adjustment in our domestic economies; strengthened management of the LDC debt problem; and trade, liberalization and open markets. o we have begun implementing a sensible five-part strategy to handle the debt problem that was developed at the Williamsburg Summit and embodied in the Williamsburg Declaration and was later reaffirmed at the London Summit. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 38 o Substantial progress has been made in domestic and international energy emergency preparedness through the accelerated build-up of our Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and an IEA agreement among the Allies for early use of petroleum stocks and demand restraint to avoid unnecessary volatility in the spot market. o An historic Allied consensus on East-West economic relations has been achieved which has led to elimination of preferential terms on credits to the USSR; reduction of the political/economic risk of Western European dependence on Soviet energy resources; and strengthened measures in COCOM to reduce illegal acquisition of Western technology. Talking Points: o The President inherited a fractious and deteriorating international economic order characterized by record inflation, high unemployment and severe recession. o From the outset, the President emphasized the importance of sensible domestic economic policies designed to halt inflation, increase employment, and stem the tide of increased government spending. o The President has repeatedly demonstrated his strong and visionary leadership in advancing a common Allied approach to key economic, trade, financial and security objectives through bilateral meetings in Washington and abroad, annual economic Summit meetings and in international fora such as OECD, IEA, NATO and COCOM. o The President first put forward his economic policies at the Ottawa Economic Summit in 1981. By the time President Reagan hosted the Williamsburg Summit two years later, it was clear that his policies were leading the U.S. and the free world on the path to full economic recovery. Under the President's leadership the Summit leaders agreed to coordinate policies to promote sustainable, non-inflationary growth and to forge a consensus on the security dimensions of East-West economic relations which had proved elusive in the past. o This was followed up a year later by the successes of the London Economic Summit which reinforced the importance of free market economics, open markets, and management of the debt problem. Agreement was also reached on important political statements on East-West relations, terrorism, democratic values and the volatile Persian Gulf situation. o Working closely with our NATO Allies and Japan, we have made major gains in correcting the serious imbalance of the past between the advantages of trading with the USSR and our common security requirements. We have reached Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 agreement with the Allies on eliminating preferential terms on credits to the USSR and reducing the substantial risk of Western European dependence on Soviet energy resources. o In working closely with the COCOM countries, we have met head-on the challenge of stopping the flow of militarily-relevant Western technology to the USSR through the upgrading of the COCOM review process, the harmonization and tightening of national licensing and enforcement procedures, and the monitoring of the potential military application of emerging technologies. o The President has taken important steps to assure that we can manage the impact of any temporary energy disruption. Our Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has been increased fourfold and our efforts through the IEA to coordinate an coordinated response to an energy emergency have been highly successful. o The five-part debt strategy adopted by the Summit leaders at Williamsburg, and reaffirmed in London, has successfully contained the debt crisis. The Administration has also encouraged modification of the strategy, to include such measures as multi-year reschedulings for those responsible debtor countries who have performed well under IMF programs. We have also supported an increased flow of long-term direct investment to debtor nations and endorsed closer cooperation between the IMF and World Bank. o Through the leadership of President Reagan in the Summit process, the Allies have dedicated themselves to the expansion of international trade by the reduction of trade barriers. o The President has given major new impetus to American economic ties with Asia by reaching out to the economically dynamic Pacific Basin nations, including a significant improvement in bilateral relations with Japan, and strengthening relations with China, South Korea, and other countries of this vital region. o The improvement of the world economy, led by the U.S., and Allied agreement to resist protectionist trade policies and to assist struggling, developing nations through encouraging IMF-based economic adjustment, government and private sector financing and increased investment have begun to restore economic and financial stability to a number of Third World countries. o In our own hemisphere, the Caribbean Basin Initiative and the Central American Peace Initiative have helped open up markets for the exports of our neighbors and Allies. Our Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 efforts to help Grenada rebuild its economy, as illustrated by our commitment to complete the airport at Point Salines, and our active support of U.S. private sector initiatives to expand Grenadian investment and trading potential are demonstrating the benefits of a return to democracy. o The President has also initiated a major Administration effort to increase the effectiveness of resource allocations to meet the urgent problem of world hunger by providing help to build new infrastructure where needed, and by taking other measures to speed up the impact of relief measures. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 41 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY Issue: How can the United States best guarantee a reliable and adequate supply of the energy resources needed for national and international security and economic well-being? Objectives: o Reduce government intervention in the energy sector through increased reliance on the market mechanism. o Improve the energy security of the U.S. and its Allies by action to reduce both the probability of future disruptions and the impact such supply interruptions might have on our economics. o Promote U.S. energy exports to Pacific Basin and European nations. o Urge key Allies to diversify their energy resources so that they are not dependent on single supplier nations, particularly in the case of energy imports from the Soviet Union. Accomplishments: o The Administration's decision to deregulate oil prices has stimulated domestic production and cut oil imports dramatically. o The size of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has quadrupled to over 400 million barrels of oil, giving the U.S. an enormous oil buffer against future oil disruptions. o The U.S. has led an initiative within the International Energy Agency to reduce reliance on Soviet energy. Studies indicate that European nations could become highly dependent on Soviet energy in the 1990's and that such dependency could make them highly vulnerable to disruptions for technical and/or political reasons. In May 1983, Ministers from IEA countries agreed that their countries would not become overly dependent on Soviet gas and that they will give preference to OECD energy resource development, particularly to Norwegian gas fields. o President Reagan and Prime Minister Nakasone agreed in November of 1983 to a program to increase energy trade between the United States and Japan. Over the long run, this will create thousands of new jobs for Americans and greater energy security for both our nations. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Talking Points: o U.S. Administrations since the time of the 1973/1974 oil embargo have seen energy as a constraint on economic systems. The present Administration sees energy as an opportunity. o Our action to deregulate oil prices has already brought about a significant drop in our import dependence by spurring domestic production. o Studies show that with continued energy deregulation the U.S. can achieve almost complete sufficiency in energy supplies by the next decade and at the same time provide ample supplies of energy to our Allies. o We have urged our Allies in Europe and the Pacific to consider increasing their reliance on U.S. exports of energy, particularly coal. This can provide them an important source of stable supply for many future decades, thereby reducing their dependency on more uncertain supplies. Prime Minister Nakasone and President Reagan have endorsed principles for energy trade between the United States and Japan, which will mean jobs for citizens and greater security for both nations. o In addition, we have led a process in the International Energy Agency to improve emergency preparedness of key industrialized countries to ensure that we do not have another wave of price increases and physical oil shortages as occurred in 1973/74 and 1979. o To do our share, we have quadrupled the Strategic Oil Reserve which now holds over 400 million barrels -- or about 80 days of our imports. At the initiative of the U.S., twenty-one member nations of the International Energy Agency agreed in July 1984 to coordinate their stocks in the event of a crisis to minimize the impacts a disruption would have on their economies. Those countries without stocks have agreed to make best efforts to increase them. o In addition to improving our ability to cope with a Persian Gulf oil disruption, we have successfully urged the Allies to reduce dependence on Soviet energy. The May 1983 IEA agreement confirms that the Europeans will look to indigenous sources, particularly Norway, instead of relying further on the Soviet Union for critical gas. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 43 TERRORISM Issue: How can the United States improve its deterrence of, protection against, and response to terrorist attacks? Objectives: o Improve the effectiveness of legal instruments under which persons involved in terrorist activity can be prosecuted. o Improve international cooperation in combating terrorism. o Develop and build enhanced security and operational capabilities to prevent and respond to terrorist acts. Accomplishments: o The Administration has submitted four bills to Congress which are designed to strengthen the legal instruments for dealing with terrorists. I o Western leaders at the London Economic Summit in June 1984 issued a declaration on international terrorism which includes a seven-point agreement on cooperative steps to be taken against terrorism. o The President has issued a directive which, among other things, calls for: Improved intelligence collection, analysis, and dissemination; better security protection and awareness; legal action to thwart terrorist attacks before they occur; and improved capability to respond to attacks, based on a cogent analysis of what responses are most likely to deter future attacks. (The directive explicitly rules out responding in kind, recognizing that this would hurt an open society far more than it would Talking Points: 2~0 -ca, .mac r- ~~. Twd~lr~ ~e~ o During 1983, inte~tr ational, terrorism took an appalling ", _ 1 1 L _ _- - _ 1 ! l _ in 393 separate incident In the U.S. six people died in 31 terrorist incidents. Terrorism poses an increasing dangers a.d to democratic societies, and to our way of life. It is an a- indiscriminate form of warfare being waged against the %"rrr,.a, SA U.S. and its Western Allies. glowsn o In recent years we have seen a r} l phenomenon: The direct use of terror by foreign states. State terrorism accounts for Te majority of terrorist murders and assassinations. 0L-'A t a c t .a.Q S i n~ o f r Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 44 Some states are providing training, financing, and logistical support to terrorists and terrorist groups. These activities are a growing source of danger to us and are a severe challenge to America's foreign policy. o We seek to improve the ability of all the democracies to combat terrorism, to coordinate their actions, and to share information. o Under Article 51 of the UN Charter, every sovereign nation has the right of self-defense. When we have credible evidence of an impending terrorist attack, the U.S. has the right and responsibility to confuse, disrupt, and prevent that attack. o Terrorists are criminals. We expect our law enforcement agencies to protect us against terrorists and other criminals. American citizens, including diplomats and military personnel, have been the victims of (f a/r of the terrorist incidents over the past deca e. The fact 5~!0-~~ R,'- that most attacks against Americans are occurring overseas - y~ does not reduce our responsibility to protect Americans the duty is no less clear, only more difficult. o We will meet the challenge of terrorism head on. But in so doing, we must remain faithful to our democratic values, institutions, and laws. o Two bills now pending before Congress would enable us to adhere fully to provisions of the Montreal Convention against aircraft sabotage and the UN Convention against taking hostages; another bill would provide the authority to pay rewards for information on international terrorist activities; a fourth bill would allow prosecution of those who assist states or groups to engage in terrorism. o On July 23, 1983, the President issued a public statement urging international cooperation against terrorism, a subject he addressed again on September 17, 1983, in a message to European Chiefs of State and Heads of Government. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 45 ARMS CONTROL Issue: What should the United States do to facilitate progress in negotiating meaningful, verifiable arms control agreements with the Soviet Union that truly enhance global security? Objectives: o Reduce the risks ' of war between East and West, particularly nuclear war. o Negotiate meaningful arms control agreements involving militarily significant arms reductions and constraints, based on the principle of equality of rights and limits. o Include effective verification measures and procedures in all negotiated arms control agreements. o Ensure that arms control remains a component of, not a substitute for, a comprehensive, coherent security policy that includes the maintenance of credible deterrent forces. o Support expanded membership in the Non-Proliferation Treaty and seek to prevent the spread of nuclear explosives to additional countries. Accomplishments: o Besides seeking resumption of nuclear arms reduction talks suspended by the Soviet Union, we informed the Soviets that we are prepared to meet with them without preconditions in Vienna in September to seek agreement on feasible negotiating approaches that could lead to verifiable and effective limitations on anti-satellite weapons, as well as to discuss other issues of mutual interest (assuming the Soviet Union also avoids preconditions). o Before the Soviets refused in December 1983 to set a date for the next round of the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START), we had proposed that both sides reduce their nuclear weapons stocks to equal levels: A cut of up to one-half in U.S. and Soviet land and sea-based strategic ballistic missiles; a one-third cut in warheads for such missiles; and tradeoffs in U.S. and Soviet advantages and a number of "build-down" approaches. o By the time the Soviets walked out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) negotiations in November 1983, they had rejected all U.S. initiatives to eliminate or reduce the entire class of INF missiles Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 considered most threatening by both sides. The U.S. initiatives included: The "zero-zero option" we introduced when talks began in November 1981 (this option would eliminate some 600 Soviet INF missiles currently armed with 1,400 warheads as well as all of the up to 572 U.S. Pershing II's and cruise missiles planned for deployment by NATO.) Our 1983 proposal for an equal interim level of such missiles by the two sides while work continued to produce agreement on zero missiles for both nations. o In 1982 and again this past spring, the U.S. and NATO proposed in the Mutual and Balanced Force Reduction (MBFR) talks in Vienna major new initiatives to resolve disagreements over the size of conventional forces in Central Europe. Our proposals envisage major troop reductions to equal NATO and Warsaw Pact levels and effective verification procedures. o At the Conference on Confidence - and Security-Building Measures in Europe (CDE) that opened in Stockholm last January, the U.S. and other Western nations proposed measures that would make military activities in Europe more open and would make it far more difficult to launch a surprise attack or intimidate others using military forces. The President announced in June 1984 that we would consider a Soviet proposal on non-use of force in Europe if Moscow would begin serious negotiations with us on the Western package of confidence-building measures. o The U.S. has been in the forefront of diplomatic efforts to bring to a halt the use of Chemical Weapons anywhere in the world and ban their use forever. Vice President Bush has personally gone twice in the last two years to the 40-nation Conference on Disarmament in Geneva to press this issue. In April 1984, he presented a major new U.S. initiative proposing a comprehensive treaty banning development, production, use, transfer, and stockpiling of these weapons, as well as sophisticated verification procedures. o In the Nuclear Testing area, the U.S. has sought to work with the Soviet Union in strengthening verification provisions of the signed but unratified Threshold Test Ban Treaty (prohibiting nuclear tests exceeding 150 kilotons) and Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Treaty. The Soviets have rejected such efforts, even as we have received evidence of probable Soviet noncompliance with these agreements and with the Limited Test Ban Treaty that restricts all nuclear testing to underground facilities. o The U.S. has also supported discussion of a Comprehensive Test Ban in the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 o The U.S. has also supported discussion, at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva, of verification and compliance issues related to a comprehensive test ban. Such a ban is a long-term U.S. objective in the context of major nuclear arms reductions, much reduced reliance on nuclear deterrence, and the assurance of effective verification. o The U.S. in July 1984 signed a new agreement with the Soviet Union to improve the Direct Communications Link or "hotline" and in June 1984 renewed the U.S.-Soviet agreement to prevent incidents at sea. Talking Points: o Nuclear War: The President and his Administration have no higher priority than reducing the risks of war. Nuclear war in particular, as the President has said repeatedly, cannot be won and must never be fought. We seek arms control agreements that truly enhance stability and security. o Arms Control: The Administration has a broad arms control agenda involving far-reaching proposals for arms reductions, constraints, and confidence-building measures. We are seeking agreements that are militarily significant, equitable, and verifiable. In each of our efforts, including a number of major negotiations, the U.S. and our Western Allies have made forthcoming new proposals in an effort to achieve progress. o ASAT/Space: We offered to meet with the Soviet Union in Vienna this fall without preconditions to discuss feasible negotiation approaches on limiting anti-satellite (ASAT) systems. o START/INF: Late last year the Soviet Union broke off the two nuclear arms reductions negotiations in Geneva, the Strategic Arms Reductions Talks (START) and those on Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF). The President has made clear his strong desire to resume these talks in order to agree on major cuts in the nuclear arsenals of both countries. o Negotiations: In addition, we are actively involved in a number of other serious arms control efforts. These include the Vienna negotiations on Mutual and Balanced Force Reductions (MBFR), the Stockholm Conference on Confidence- and Security-Building Measures in Europe (CDE), and the Conference on Disarmament (CD) negotiations in Geneva on a comprehensive chemical weapons ban, as well as discussions at the CD on limits on nuclear testing, anti-satellite systems, and other areas of concern. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 48 o Compliance: The U.S. is seriously concerned about Soviet noncompliance with existing agreements. As indicated in the President's January, 1984, Report to the Congress on seven compliance issues, we have determined that the Soviet Union has violated the Geneva Protocol on Chemical Weapons, the Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention, the Helsinki Final Act, and at least two provisions of SALT II: telemetry encryption and a rule concerning ICBM modernization. The Report also indicated that the Soviet Union has almost certainly violated the ABM Treaty, probably violated the SALT II limit on new types of missiles, probably violated the SS-16 deployment prohibition of SALT II, and is likely to have violated the nuclear testing yield limit of the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. We must insist that the Soviets rectify those areas where they are in violation. For our part, we are continuing to carry out our own obligations and commitments, and will continue to seek effective verification and compliance measures in all arms control efforts we undertake. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 DETERRENCE Issue: What can the United States do to convince potential aggressors not to use force in challenging U.S. vital interests? Objectives: o Reduce the risk of war or coercion by the threat to use force. o Ensure that our national security forces are capable of implementing our deterrence strategy. Accomplishments: o Through our strategic and intermediate nuclear forces modernization programs, we have begun to remedy the significant vulnerabilities in those forces which were inherited in 1981. o The strong U.S. leadership and Alliance unity existing today have greatly strengthened deterrence. As a result, we have decreased the risk of Soviet miscalculation and increased the security of both ourselves and our Allies. Talking Points: o Deterrence is the cornerstone of U.S. national security policy. We deter by ensuring that the leadership of all potential aggressors is aware that our policy and our forces will deny an aggressor his basic war aims and, through retaliation, make the costs of aggression far outweigh any potential benefits. o The President has emphasized that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. Our recognition of this fact is not sufficient to prevent nuclear war: we must be certain that the Soviet leadership understands it as well. o Deterrence is not and cannot be based on bluff. We must have a credible retaliatory capability sufficient to deter the wide variety of attacks the Soviets are capable of making. The Soviet leadership must understand that, should they attack us or our Allies, our forces will retaliate against key elements of Soviet power and will thereby make the costs of aggression outweigh any possible gains. o Our nuclear modernization programs remove vulnerabilities in our deterrent forces and, as a result, enhance our ability to deter attack and prevent war. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 50 STRATEGIC MODERNIZATION I ssue: How can the United States close the gap between its strategic capabilities and those of the Soviet Union? Objectives: o Redress the most serious weaknesses in our current strategic posture. o Provide incentive to the Soviets to negotiate meaningful arms reductions that promote strategic stability. Accomplishments: o The President early-on recognized the need for strategic modernization and as a result proposed a five-element mutually reinforcing program to restore the strategic balance. o The five-point program directed the Department of Defense to: design and produce a cost-effective Peacekeeper intercontinental ballistic missile; refine and improve the basic design of the B-1 strategic bomber and place it into series production; select a design and develop an Advanced Technology Bomber (ATB) to complete the basic modernization requirements of the strategic bomber force of the 1990s and beyond; develop an improved Trident II/D-5 submarine-launched ballistic missile system and a nuclear-armed SLCM; and design and deploy improvements to our command-and-control system to ensure positive control to further reduce the risk of war. o Two major changes to the President's program were incorporated after its initiation: at the recommendation of the Scowcroft Commission, work was initiated on a Small ICBM for deployment in the 1990s; and an intensive research program aimed at elimination of the threat of ballistic missiles was begun. o Significant progress has been made on all five of the Strategic Initiatives. o Improvements to the Strategic Command-and-Control system are being implemented. o The first production B-lB will be rolled-out in September, months ahead of schedule and below cost. Research on the ATB is on or ahead of schedule. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 o The first 21 Peacekeeper missiles are under construction, and the Peacekeeper missile has had five perfect test launches. o Research on the D-5 missile is on schedule and the nuclear-armed SLCM has been deployed. o Improvements to our strategic defenses are being implemented, and the President's Strategic Defense Initiative is now underway. Talking Points: o Strategic modernization is required to redress the the serious weaknesses in our strategic posture caused by the massive Soviet build-up of strategic forces over the past 10-15 years, a period of U.S. restraint in deployment of strategic systems. It is also needed to restore our deterrent strength and to provide strong incentives to the Soviets to negotiate genuine arms reductions. o Under President Reagan's leadership, a multi-element, mutually reinforcing strategic modernization program has been initiated. Significant progress has already been made in a number of areas. o Strategic communications-and-control systems are being improved to ensure that we could employ our nuclear forces effectively, which is essential to a credible deterrent. o Bomber modernization is underway to reduce the risks associated with the aging and potentially vulnerable B-52 force. o modernized sea-based forces, currently the most survivable leg of our strategic Triad, are being created, as represented by the new Trident II/D-5 missile. o Our land-based missile force is being modernized to remedy an important part of the strategic imbalance. Contributions of the ICBM include: prompt hard target capability; secure command-control-and-communications; rapid re-targeting; high alert rate; and low operations and support costs -- 12 percent of the total for the entire Triad. (The current Soviet missile site-hardening program has created a sanctuary from retaliation because U.S. ICBMs lack the ability to hold this class of target at risk.) o The President's strategic modernization program is an essential element in helping us meet our arms control objectives. We have stated that we are willing to Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 negotiate trade-offs in each side's advantages and a build-down of strategic systems leading to significantly lower and more stable strategic forces. We seek to reach an equitable and verifiable arms control agreement. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 ICBM MODERNIZATION Issue: How can the United States maximize the effectiveness of the ground-based portion of the strategic Triad in support of credible deterrence? Objectives: o modernize the aging ICBM force through the deployment of 100 Peacekeeper missiles and the development of a new small mobile ICBM. Accomplishments: o The Peacekeeper test program has been an outstanding success: all test objectives have been met or exceeded, and accuracy/reliability results have been excellent. o Production has been approved and initiated on the first 21 Peacekeeper missiles, and basing work at F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming, is progressing on schedule. All other requirements for an operational deployment of Peacekeeper in 1986 are on schedule. o Development of the small ICBM has begun and is on schedule for a possible deployment in the early 1990's. Talking Points: o ICBM modernization is essential to the viability of the strategic Triad of bombers, submarine missiles, and ICBMs that has kept the peace for well over two decades. o The President has endorsed the recommendations of the Bipartisan Scowcroft Commission to deploy as soon as possible 100 Peacekeeper missiles and develop a small ICBM, while vigorously pursuing arms control. o The Reagan Administration proposal of 100 missiles is half the size of the Carter program, but is part of a balanced strategic modernization program. o Peacekeeper is the only near-term ICBM that can help restore the strategic imbalance that developed as the Soviets modernized during a period of U.S. restraint. o Since the early 1970s, the Soviets have modernized their ICBM force through the addition of 308 SS-18 missiles and 360 SS-19 missiles. The U.S. made no new deployments during this period. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 o Peacekeeper deployment is needed to demonstrate U.S. resolve and to encourage the Soviets to resume arms control negotiations. Failure to deploy Peacekeeper would: undercut NATO's decision to modernize its long-range nuclear force through deployment of GLCM and Pershing II missiles; reward the Soviets for failing to resume START negotiations; provide no incentive for the Soviets to begin serious negotiations aimed at limiting and reducing strategic systems; and undercut cost-effective options for re-establishing survivability of our land-based missile force. o Peacekeeper deployment is a vital first step in a logical, comprehensive, and progressive approach toward permitting us and encouraging the Soviets to move toward smaller, survivable, and more stable systems at lower levels of forces. Without Peacekeeper, the Soviets have no incentive to move in this direction in the near term. With ICBM modernization, stability and deterrence will be enhanced well into the Twenty-First Century. o A new single warhead small ICBM is also required. Each ICBM represents low-target value from a Soviet attack-plan perspective. A flexible and survivable basing mode is being developed as a complement to a small ICBM. (Current emphasis is on a hard mobile concept capable of withstanding a blast in excess of 25 psi; other basing modes are also under consideration--soft mobile and super-hard silos.) Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 55 NUCLEAR-ARMED SEA-LAUNCHED CRUISE MISSILE Issue: How can the United States most effectively modernize the Navy's deterrent capability? Objectives: o Offset the threat posed by the Soviet Union's development and deployment of sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). o Enhance the U.S. deterrent posture. Accomplishments: o The Administration announced the decision to deploy nuclear SLCM as part of its October 1981 Strategic Modernization Program. The nuclear-armed SLCM contributes to our strategic reserve force and the modernization of our worldwide naval deterrent capability. o Funding of the SLCM program first was approved by the Congress in FY 1981 and has continued without interruption ever since, enabling the program to meet its scheduled initial deployment date of July 1984. Talking Points: o In the early 1970's the U.S. decided to develop conventional and nuclear-armed SLCMs to improve our deterrent posture and to offset the threat imposed by the development and deployment of Soviet nuclear SLCMs. o The nuclear-armed SLCM provides badly-needed modernization of our Navy's deterrent capability. When deployed on surface ships or submarines, it is a highly survivable system, even in the event of surprise attack. It is a highly accurate weapon, and its procurement costs are relatively low. o The SLCM program actually offsets a Soviet capability that has existed since the early 1960's, when their first sea-launched cruise missiles were deployed. Moscow now has seven operational SLCM systems, six of which are dual-capable -- i.e., are currently deployed in both conventional and nuclear-armed configurations. At least two of these systems feature weapons with ranges in excess of 400 kilometers that can threaten many strategically important U.S. land targets. o The unilateral ban on nuclear-armed SLCMs proposed by the House of Representatives thus would allow the Soviets to hold a monopoly in such systems, giving Moscow even less Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 reason to negotiate genuine arms reductions. Unilateral U.S. restraint will soon become even more ill-advised, since the Soviets are preparing to deploy a new weapon system similar to the U.S. Tomahawk. o At the same time, such a ban, by precluding the deployment of the U.S. counterpart, impairs a needed modernization of the U.S. nuclear deterrent capability and a significant enhancement of our nuclear reserve force. o In fact, rather than being stabilizing, a ban would add to instability by continuing to force the U.S. Navy to concentrate its deterrent capabilities aboard a small number of platforms. By contrast, the deployment of SLCM's would result in the dispersal of our deterrent capability across the fleet, thereby both assuring increased force survivability and reducing the attractiveness of a first-strike to potential aggressors. o A ban would constitute unilateral arms control by restricting only the U.S. SLCM Program. Such a move is all the more ill-advised since the Soviets are preparing to deploy in addition to their existing SLCM force a Tomahowk-look-alike: the SS-NX-21. As a result of our unilateral restraint, the Soviet Union would have even less reason to negotiate seriously to realize real nuclear arms reductions being sought by the Administration. o In spite of the known difficulties in negotiating an arms control agreement which includes SLCM's, the U.S. has stated its desire to resume negotiations at the START and INF talks with no preconditions and with all forces open for discussion. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE Issue: How can the United States attain its long-range goal of ultimately making ballistic missiles impotent and obsolete? Objective: o Explore the potential of advanced technologies to enable the U.S. to develop and deploy an effective defense against ballistic missiles. Accomplishments: o on March 23, 1983, the President directed that research within the limits prescribed by the ABM Treaty go forward on neutralizing the ballistic missile threat as a prudent hedge against a possible breakout by Moscow from the ABM Treaty. o Government and outside experts conducted two studies between June and October 1983 to determine whether advanced technologies could support development of an effective anti-ballistic missile defense and whether such defenses could enhance deterrence, stability, and prospects for arms reductions. The results of both were a qualified "yes" -- qualified because the studies recognized some uncertainties that could only be resolved through further research. As a result, these experts recommended a vigorous research program designed to answer the remaining questions as to whether an effective defense is feasible. o After consulting Congressional leaders and our Allies, the President directed that the additionally needed research get underway under a Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), an effort to be conducted over approximately the next five years. Work will be restricted to research on a broad range of defensive technologies consistent with our treaty obligations. The objective is to provide answers that will permit us to make an informal decision in the future on whether to proceed with developing such defensive systems. Talking Points: o The President's Strategic Defense Initiative seeks to explore the potential of emerging defensive technologies to enhance deterrence by significantly reducing the military effectiveness of ballistic missiles. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 58 o It does not constitute a decision to develop and deploy such a dTnsive systems. Rather, it is a research program that is designed to answer a number of technological questions that must be answered before the promise of defensive systems can be properly assessed. o The Soviet Union is also pursuing a defensive technologies research program that includes upgrading the world's only active ballistic missile defense system, seeking a rapidly-deployable ASM system, and actively investigating advanced defensive technologies. The U.S. program is, therefore, a prudent hedge against possible Soviet gains that would adversely affect U.S. and Allied security. o Taken together with balanced offensive forces and effective arms control measures, advanced defenses against ballistic missiles could increase deterrence and stability by: making aggressors less certain about the outcome of an attack; making pre-emptive attacks on retaliatory forces less attractive; and reducing or eliminating, when combined with effective air defenses, the military utility of these nuclear weapons. o The initiative in no way signals a shift in priority away from the modernization of strategic and intermediate-range nuclear assets and conventional forces that is essential to the maintenance of deterrence in the decades ahead. o Advanced defenses have the potential of reducing the value of ballistic missiles, and thus increasing the likelihood of negotiated reductions. o The U.S. intends to continue to work closely with the Alliance to ensure that, in the event of a future decision to deploy defensive systems, Allied, as well as U.S., security against aggression would be enhanced. Any future decisions concerning potential deployment of defensive systems would be made in full consultation with our Allies. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 59 ANTI-SATELLITE (ASAT) DEVELOPMENT AND ARMS CONTROL Issue: How can the United States best protect its interests in space and strengthen deterrence? Objectives: o Ensure that we have a full range of options for protecting our military and civil systems deployed in space. o Develop anti-satellite and space weapons systems as well as negotiate agreements that maintain and strengthen deterrence in these areas. Accomplishments: o The U.S. supports formation of a committee to discuss space arms control, including ASAT, in the forty-nation Conference on Disarmament in Geneva. o In March 1984, the Administration submitted a comprehensive report to the Congress on U.S. Policy on ASAT Arms Control which pointed out that there are several factors that impede the identification of effective ASAT arms control measures. These include significant difficulties of verification, diverse sources of threats to U.S. and Allied satellites, and threats posed by Soviet targeting and reconnaissance satellites that undermine conventional and nuclear deterrence. The report also indicated that the U.S. would continue to seek selected limits on specific types of systems or activities. o In June 1984, the Soviets, who since 1972 have had the world's only deployed ASAT system, offered to discuss space-related arms control issues in Vienna, this fall. o The U.S. has announced its readiness to meet with the Soviet Union in Vienna this fall without preconditions to discuss feasible negotiation approaches on limiting ASAT systems, even as we also seek a resumption of the nuclear arms reduction negotiations. o The U.S. ASAT Program under development has made significant technical progress: the ASAT Boost System has been tested; tests will soon be made involving the booster and its miniature homing vehicle; and tests against a target in space are scheduled. o Research continues on technologies with potential for ASAT use, including directed energy weapons and space tracking technology. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 60 o Survivability of U.S. space assets is being upgraded through the development of measures which reduce or eliminate the effectiveness of Soviet ASAT systems. Talking Points: o Current Soviet ASAT capabilities include an operational orbital interceptor system; ground-based test lasers with probable ASAT capabilities; possibly the nuclear-armed Galosh ABM interceptors; and an electronic warfare (jamming) capability against space systems. o The operational Soviet ASAT system threatens all key U.S. low-altitude satellites. o The 1978-1979 ASAT arms control talks revealed major U.S.-Soviet differences, and subsequent study has brought space arms control issues into sharper focus. Problems in space arms control include: verification difficulties; high risk of Soviet break-out due to existing Soviet ASAT capabilities and research; difficulties in defining space weapons, since many ground-based systems have space capability and manned space systems have extreme flexibility; and the fact the Soviets have existing systems whereas we do not (moratoriums on testing are therefore asymmetric in their effect). o The Soviets' proposal for an ASAT arms control treaty lacks provisions for effective verification, is unclear with regard to Soviet targeting satellites, and does not deal with residual ASAT capabilities. The moratorium proposal seems clearly designed to block tests of the U.S. ASAT while allowing the USSR to maintain its monopoly with the world's only operational ASAT interceptor system. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 SPACE Issue: How can the United States capitalize on the full potential of the medium of space in satisfying overall national interests? Objectives: o Strengthen the security of the United States. o Maintain U.S. space leadership. o Benefit economically and scientifically by exploiting space. o Expand U.S. private sector investment and involvement in civil space-related activities. o Promote international cooperative activities in space that are in the national interest. o Work with other nations to preserve the freedom of space for all activities that enhance the security and welfare of mankind. Accomplishments: o on July 4, 1982, President Reagan signed the National Space Policy to guide the conduct of our space program. The policy states that our space program will be conducted according to several principles. o We are committed to the exploration and use of space by all nations for peaceful purposes and for the benefit of mankind. o We reject any claims to sovereignty by any nation over outer space, celestial bodies, or any portion thereof, and reject any limitations on the fundamental right to acquire data from space. o We consider the space systems of any nation to be national property with the right of passage through and operations in space without interference. o We encourage domestic commercial exploitation of space capabilities, technology, and systems for national economic benefit. o We will conduct international cooperative space-related activities that achieve sufficient scientific, political, economic, or national security benefits for the nation. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 62 o Our space program will be comprised of two separate, distinct, and strongly interacting programs-- national security and civil. o The Space Transportation System (STS) is the primary space launch system for both national security and civil government missions. o We will pursue activities in space in support of our right of self-defense. o We will continue to study space arms control options. o Our Space Assistance and Cooperation Policy, which was issued on August 6, 1982, promulgates broad U.S. objectives in international space cooperation and provides policy on space launch and technology assistance. o The President has directed the maintenance of orbiter production through manufacturing structural and component spares. o In May 1983, the President established a policy to facilitate the commercialization of expendable launch vehicles (ELVs). A Senior Interdepartmental Group (Space) study subsequently led to establishing procedures for licensing commercial space launches and giving lead-agency responsibility to the Department of Transportation. o Following the completion of an interdepartmental study, the President announced in his State of the Union Address on January 25, 1984, that developing the frontier of space would be one of the four major goals for the U.S. in the 1980s. In this context he announced that: the U.S. will develop a permanently-manned space station and place it in orbit within a decade; our friends and Allies are invited to join us in the program; and we would implement a number of initiatives designed to promote private sector investment in space. o At the London Economic Summit in June 1984, the Summit partners welcomed the U.S. invitation to participate in the Space Station program and agreed to review international participation at the next summit. o On July 20, 1984, the President announced 13 initiatives to encourage commercial activity in space. o On August 15, 1984 the President approved a National Space Strategy. The Strategy implements the National Space Policy by providing 17 priorities for the U.S. Space Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Program in the STS, Civil Space, Commercial Space, and National Security Space areas. Seven follow-on efforts to further implement the policy are directed. Talking Points: o A vigorous and forward-looking space program is one of the most highly visible and tangible demonstrations of world leadership. o Few other national endeavors have equaled the potential of the U.S. Space Program to: perform functions in the national security, domestic and private sectors that either cannot be performed any other way or cannot be performed as economically or as well; advance the state-of-the-art in high technology; and elevate the human spirit, capture our imaginations, demonstrate our pioneering initiative, and hold out hope for a progressive future for our nation and all mankind. o No other President has taken a more personal interest in U.S. space policy, attached higher priority to it, or promulgated more policy decisions dealing with it than President Reagan. Since announcement of his National Space Policy on July 4, 1982, the President has issued approximately eight directives and made numerous decisions that will help implement this broad policy. The Senior Interdepartmental Group (SIG) for Space was established to coordinate the implementation. o Much remains to be done to set the U.S. Space Program on a course that ensures U.S. leadership in the decades ahead. By the President's direction, a National Space Strategy has been completed which establishes broad priorities for the U.S. Space Program and identifies potential issues to be Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 64 MILITARY CAPABILITY/READINESS Issue: Are our armed forces more "ready" than in 1980? Objectives: o Continue to improve training and skill levels of U.S. forces. o Reduce longstanding defects in combat sustainability, including stock levels of critical consumables. o Provide modern and sophisticated conventional equipment to enhance combat effectiveness and survivability. o Blend equipment, stock level, and manpower improvements into more combat capable armed forces. o Provide better capability to deploy forces to combat requirements and sustain them once deployed. Accomplishments: o In force readiness (i.e., the ability of forces, weapons systems, etc. to deliver outputs--without unacceptable delay--for which they were designed), substantial progress has been made in the past three years and steady improvement is projected for the future. o Since FY 1980 there has been an almost 20 percent increase in the number of enlisted personnel with four or more years of service, and the percentage of recruits with high school diplomas has increased from 68 percent to 92 percent. o While trends in average training hours/flying days/steaming days have been steady or have improved slightly since 1980, the quality of training has improved considerably, and the number of units rated "substantially ready" has increased by about 25 percent. o Trends in the material condition (i.e., mission-capable rates) of most major weapons categories have been steady or slightly improving since FY 1980. Now, however, we are supporting larger numbers of more sophisticated and complex weapons, operating them for longer periods, and still realizing readiness improvements in some areas. o In force sustainability (the staying power of our forces in combat), because of the long lead times involved in procurement, our increased funding from FY 1982-84 for sustainability has not yet been fully translated into Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 65 significantly increased inventories. However, we have increased the budget allocation by 100 percent over the 1980 level, which will result, for example, in an increase in munitions sustainability of 14 percent for the Army, 62 percent for the Air Force, 58 percent for the Navy and 24 percent for the Marine Corps. o In force structure (i.e., the numbers, size, and composition of our defense forces units), we have provided for significant increases in the numbers of some units (divisions, battalions, tactical fighter wings, Navy aircraft squadrons, and ship battle groups) over the past four years. The need to provide balance among the components of military capability within finite resources has required, however, that revisions in force structure receive a somewhat lower priority than modernization, readiness, and sustainability, o In Strategic Mobility, we can deliver 25 percent more tonnage to Europe by air. We have done more to improve sealift since 1981 than in all the years since WW II. o In Force Modernization, we have obtained appropriations of over 27 billion for construction of 34 new major combat ships. We have funded a substantial increase for procurement of modern weapons systems for the Army and Marine Corps, e.g., for some 2,929 M-1 Abrams tanks; 2,200 Bradley Fighting Vehicles; 171 AG-64 Apache attack helicopters; 430 Light Armored Vehicles; over 1,000 Armored Amphibious Vehicles; and 3,000 Stinger missiles. We can provide 62 percent more air sorties in Europe, sorties whose individual effectiveness is improved because they are newer aircraft carrying more accurate weapons. o The introduction of more modern, capable, and effective weapons systems has in some cases been accompanied by a period of lower apparent readiness, in terms of equipment fill, during the period of transition when not all of the ancillary support equipment has been delivered and there are no suitable substitutes to offset the shortage. This apparent reduction in readiness, however, is only temporary and is more than offset by modernization improvements that enhance overall capability. o The Bottom Line: In the professional judgment of each U.S. Unified and Specified Commander-in-Chief, his command is indeed far more ready "by every measure of common sense" than it was four years ago. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 66 Talking Points: o This Administration inherited several acute defense problems which required immediate attention: There was no comprehensive plan for strategic modernization; production rates for many important procurement programs were grossly inefficient; war reserves were extremely low; and there was an ongoing "hemorrhage" of skilled manpower. The commitment to address and resolve these problems appeared to have been woefully inadequate. o This Administration's primary objectives have thus been to improve near-term training, readiness, and manpower problems; integrate the modernization of strategic forces; increase conventional force modernization; and make inroads in the longstanding deficiencies in combat sustainability. o Overall, substantial progress has been made in many aspects of these problems in the past three years, and gradual but steady improvement is projected in the future. We have more and better people; they are better trained; and our men and materiel are better supported. o It has never been our view that all the problems we inherited could be solved within four years. But we have shown that it is possible to set defense priorities and to make balanced progress in improving overall military capabilities. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 67 NUCLEAR WEAPONS MODERNIZATION IN NATO. Issue: How can the United States best advance the process of modernizing NATO's weapons to provide an effective and credible deterrent which supports NATO strategy while preserving the Alliance's unified approach to modernization? Objectives o Continue, in the absence of an arms control agreement, to deploy long-range intermediate nuclear weapons (LRINF) in accord with the 1979 NATO Decision. o Maintain an effective and credible nuclear deterrent in NATO which supports NATO strength at the lowest reasonable inventory level. o Enhance the utility, survivability, and safety of nuclear weapons in NATO. Accomplishments o The NATO nuclear weapons inventory has been reduced to its lowest level in twenty years. Following a withdrawal of 1,000 warheads in 1980 as part of the 1979 Dual-Track Decision, we reached further agreement in 1983 to withdraw 1,400 additional weapons. o Alliance unity has been maintained through extensive consultations throughout INF negotiations. We agree on negotiating positions and on adherence to measured deployment of 572 LRINF weapons in the absence of a verifiable, equitable arms control agreement. o We continue to explore ways to reach the lowest inventory level and weapons mix consistent with a credible and effective nuclear deterrent. o We have obtained Allied recognition of and support for improvements in conventional defense capabilities to permit less reliance on nuclear weapons in NATO strategy. U.S. defense improvements have led the way in reducing the need for early resort to nuclear weapons. o A limited but effective modernization program for shorter-range systems has been developed, to provide needed capabilities at reduced inventory levels. Modernization also enhances the accuracy and flexibility of stockpile warheads. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 68 Talking Points o Over the last four years, progress in NATO nuclear weapons modernization has been substantial. We have reduced the overall weapons inventory to the lowest level in twenty years, and in 1983 we reached agreement in the Alliance to withdraw another 1,400 warheads, plus an additional warhead for each Pershing II or Ground-Launched Cruise Missile deployed. o We have maintained Alliance unity in pursuit of both tracks of the 1979 Dual-Track Decision. We have negotiated constructively and flexibly on INF, with full Alliance accord on our position, until the Soviets broke off the talks; we have adhered to a measured and limited deployment of Pershing II and Ground-Launched Cruise Missiles in the absence of an equitable and verifiable INF arms control agreement. o We have pursued a limited modernization program for other short-range nuclear warheads, which will allow us and NATO to maintain a credible, effective theater nuclear deterrent at the lowest possible inventory level. o We have led the way in conventional defense improvements in NATO, and have convinced the Allies of the wisdom of our efforts to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons if deterrence fails. o During the last four years, the United States has undertaken a sustained, expanded, and in some cases unprecedented, level of consultations with its NATO Allies. o The NATO Special Consultative Group (SCG), chaired by the U.S., met regularly and often to review and coordinate our INF negotiating efforts. o The NATO High-Level Group (HLG), also chaired by the U.S., has also met frequently to examine critical nuclear issues facing the Alliance, providing the analysis on which NATO decisions on these issues have been based. o The U.S. has participated in semi-annual meetings of the Ministerial-level Nuclear Planning Group (NPG) to discuss nuclear issues in the Alliance. o The U.S. also has participated in a series of bilateral High Level Defense Group meetings with various NATO partners which have resulted in improved understanding of defense matters. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 69 NON-FIRST-USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS Issue: How should the United States respond to pressures to renounce the first use of nuclear weapons in a conflict? Objectives: o Support NATO strategy of not being the first to use force of any kind. o Protect our ability to deter attack by avoiding categorical assurances that we will never be the first to use nuclear weapons. o Deflate the charge that a policy of forswearing the first-use of nuclear weapons enhances stability and security. Accomplishments: o The Administration has reaffirmed U.S. adherence to the principle, embodied in both the UN Charter and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Charter, that we will not be the first to resort to force of any kind. o In consultation with our NATO Allies, we also have revalidated the strategy of flexible response as first and foremost a deterrence strategy, not an aggressive strategy. o The U.S. has offered to discuss, in CDE, a proposal for a formal agreement on non-use of force if the Soviets will enter serious negotiations about substantive and verifiable confidence-building measures which enhance security and lessen the possibility of an outbreak of war. Talking Points: o America's policy on how to promote world peace has consistently been more inclusive--and thus potentially more productive -- than any one declaration on a specific kind of weapon: we are pledged not to be the first to use force "of any kind." o Our policy on this issue has been developed in close consultation with our Allies, especially the other NATO members. We approach this issue in concert. o A declaration about non-first-use of a specific weapons type, such as nuclear weapons, would send confusing signals about our sincerity and credibility in carrying Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 out a deterrent strategy designed to prevent any aggression, nuclear or conventional, against the Western democracies. o Over the last four years, we have devoted considerable energy and resources to improving conventional defense capabilities. This will allow us to reduce our reliance on nuclear weapons to make deterrence credible and thus achieve the same effect as adopting a non-first use policy--but from a posture which enhances overall security rather than placing it at risk. o Signaling in advance to a potential aggressor how we might respond to his aggression would undercut NATO's longstanding deterrence strategy, thereby actually increasing the chances of nuclear war. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 71 TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER Issue: How can the United States and its Allies resolve their own disparate views and devise a comprehensive means of preventing the Soviet Union and its Allies from acquiring sensitive technology? Objectives: o Recognize and explain, both to ourselves and our Allies, the nature of the threat posed by technology transfer. o Reach agreement on the extent of the threat. o Introduce new countermeasures and constraints to impede if not prevent such losses. o Continue to improve our intelligence on technology transfer matters. o Curb the loss of sensitive technology without working undue hardship on U.S. and Allied economic interests. ACCOMPLISHMENTS: o The Reagan Administration is the first to fully recognize the security risk posed by technology transfer. It has made many statements both publicly and in private to Allies and U.S. business on the threat and our intention to defeat it. o The flow of information on technology transfer available to us has increased dramatically. The results are being seen in court cases and convictions for both diversion and espionage in technology loss. o Both U.S. Customs and the Commerce Department have significantly increased their enforcement work, and since 1980, technology transfer has become an area of priority in our intelligence effort. o The security services of our Allies have expelled many Soviet intelligence collectors, a result partially attributable to U.S. efforts to highlight this issue. Additionally, the U.S. has closed down many means previously used by the Soviets to acquire technical information. o In COCOM the U.S. has made great progress in convincing our Allies that the threat is serious. The recent COCOM agreement is evidence of that achievement. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 72 Talking Points: o The Soviets and their Warsaw Pact Allies have sustained a large-scale effort for some time to obtain Western technical information and to adopt it to their military and civil requirements. The Soviets are well behind the U.S. in many technologies having military use, e.g., computers and microprocessor technology, and thus require Western, and especially U.S., information to meet weapons requirements. o Europe and Japan are, like ourselves, innovative and scientifically advanced. Our Allies have a vested common concern in stemming technology loss, as this loss leads to higher defense budgets for all, while concurrently weakening deterrence. On the other hand, each ally has its own view of its economic relationship with Bloc countries; there is, therefore, a tension of competing interests among our Allies over economic gain versus the provision of technology to the Bloc. At issue is how to resolve these disparate views. o Despite progress, a problem so complex as the loss of technology cannot quickly be remedied. The Soviets are very skilled in their collection techniques and know specifically what they must have. Since the collection of technical information has been a long-standing campaign, with numerous avenues of collection, impeding this effort is not quickly done. o The U.S. is an open society with a heritage of free expression. This freedom of expression is exploited by the Soviets in their collection program; the U.S. Government must ensure proper protection of sensitive information while not impeding the rights and traditions of free expression. o The effort to slow or stop the loss of strategic technology must be a persistent, long term undertaking. It is essential both for ourselves and our Allies that the threat continue to be highlighted and exposed for the danger that it poses, and that countermeasures, both unilateral and bilateral, be kept in place and supported, and backed by the highest levels in the Administration. A great deal of progress has been made and this progress must be sustained and enhanced by organizational, legal and technical means. Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886R001900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5 Approved For Release 2008/10/08: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01900160003-5