MEMO TO DCI FROM JOHN HORTON

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86M00886R001500010031-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 26, 2008
• Sequence Number: 31
• Publication Date: April 16, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2008/11/26: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01500010031-4
National a m Ng .n- Council
NOTE FOR: DCI
DDCI
FROM:
NI0/LA
One of our speakers at the NIC Conference
on 22 March was Richard Armitage, 2 -
OSD/ISA, who said, in the course of his remarks
on the CIA product, that he had been most
influenced in his opinion of El Salvador by
one such publication. I have identified it,
unfortunately. I had hoped it might have been
something produced by us in the NIC, but it
turns out to be a paper produced by 25X1
Population, Resources and Politics in ine
Third Horld: The Lon ew. The paragraphs
that rm tage must have been referring to are
attached.
Attachment:
as stated
cc: DDI
D/OGI
SECRET
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 Approved For Release 2008/11/26: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01500010031-4
assure the return of a large majority of the workers to
Mexico after their working life is over, and reduce
political pressures on the Mexican Government. Even
with such a program in effect-but especially in the
absence of such a program-the US Government
might we itself obliged to take very expensive
measures both to bolster the Mexican economy and to
7 mpt to seal the US southern borde~
El Salvador
El Salvador, with 220 persons per square kilometer, is
the most densely populated noninsular nation in the
Western Hemisphere; it shares a long border with
Honduras, which, with 38 people per square kilome-
ter, is tlio least densely populated country in Central
America. Population pressures that led some 300,000
Salvadorans to emigrate to Honduras between World
War II and the late 1960s also contributed to the
1969 "Soccer War" between the two countries.
Despite the current convergence of interest between
the two conservative, anti-Communist governments,
illegal migration continues and a number of border
disputes remain unresolved.
The situation can only get worse in the future. By the
end of the century, El Salvador's population, currently
4.7 million, will have grown to 7.4 million, and the
population density will be a suffocating 346 persons
per square kilometer. Honduras, although growing
more rapidly, will still have a density of only 62
persons per square kilometer. Birth control measures,
even in the unlikely case that they were adopted on a
wide scale, would do little to alleviate the problem
between now and the end of the century. Land reform
is also at best a partial answer; with 42 percent of its
small land area unsuitable for either cultivation or
pasturage, there is no way that El Salvador can
employ its expanding population in agriculture. Its
once-promising industrial sector, largely destroyed by
leftist violence that drove out foreign investment, is
unlikely to revive soon, even if peace can be achieved.
Indeed, the only circumstances that we foresee that
could significantly alter the outlook for population
increase would be the continuation of El Salvador's
internal war at much higher levels of violenc~=
Thus, we believe it is near certain that, by the year
2000, relations between El Salvador and Honduras
will have degenerated into a state of chronic hostility
Massive illegal migration punctuated by one or more
border wars is the most likely scenario. This popula-
tion-forced hostility will probably be extreme enough
to undermine any Salvadoran-Honduran cooperation
against revolutionary elements from outside 125X1 a
(In addition to the illegal migration to Honduras,
many more Salvadorans will blr,migrating to the
United States. In 1978, before the guerrilla war had
begun in earnest, 25,000 Salvadoran illegals success-
fully entered the United States.F 25X1
Egypt
Egypt, with a population of 45.9 million squeezed into
a largely and country where less than 3 percent of the
land is suitable for agriculture, has no place to go bu
out' Unlike Mexico and El Salvador, however, Egyp
has not relied upon illegal migration or war but upon
the legal export of labor. Egyptian office workers,
teachers, doctors, and laborers can be found through.
out the Middle East and in Western Europe25X1
North America as well. In 1982 an estimates 1.7
million Egyptians-roughly 13 percent of the labor
force-worked abroad. The importance of these
workers to the economic viability of Egypt is even
greater than their number would suggest; the remit-
tances that these workers send home through official
channels-estimated at $2.3 billion in 1982-are a
major source of foreign exchange-F-7 25X1
By the year 2000, Egypt's population will number
between 70 and 80 million, and the labor force will
have nearly doubled to about 22 million. The demanc
for Egyptian labor abroad, however, will probably
have stagnated and may well have declined. The rapic
economic growth of the oil-producing countries of th,
Middle East will have long since moderated and wits
it the need for Egyptian labor. Competition for those
jobs that remain will be heavy. Pakistan, India,
Bangladesh, Lebanon, Jordan, Sudan, the Yemens,
South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand have all
shown themselves capable of competing with Egypt
for the petroleum dollar. We expect that, ove25X1
' Although Egypt is one of the most industrialized of Arab states,
industry employs only a small portion of the labor fon25X1
Approved For Release 2008/11/26: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01500010031-4