SOVIET INTENTIONS TOWARD THE US IN THE NEXT EIGHT MONTHS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86M00886R001000020027-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 20, 2009
• Sequence Number: 27
• Publication Date: March 23, 1984
• Content Type: MEMO

Approved For Release 2009/02/25: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01000020027-3
SECRET
The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligt ice Council
G
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Chairman, National Intelligence Council
FROM: Herbert E. Meyer
Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council
SUBJECT: Soviet Intentions Toward the US in the Next Eight Months
1. Attached is the draft that I developed with Harry Cochran, and which
he wrote.
2. As you will see, we project a period of growing US-Soviet
confrontation based on a Soviet perception that in an election year the US--
and its President--are especially vulnerable to pressure. Our prediction may,
of course, prove wrong. But we should resist the temptation to dismiss the
idea of confrontation on the grounds that such a policy would be too dangerous
for the Soviets to contemplate. After all, there is a record of Soviet
misjudgment based on their faulty calculations of just how vulnerable the US
and its leaders have been at given times. One relevant example is
Khrushchev's patronizing the reading of JFK at the Vienna Summit in June
1961--two months after the Bay of Pigs fiasco. At that time, Khrushchev was
under pressure at home as a result of his repeated retreats from threats to
sign a separate peace treaty with East Germany and force a unilateral change
in the status of West Germany. This pressure tempted him into the trap of
wishful thinking about JFK's vulnerability--a misjudgment that led directly to
the Cuban missile crisis.
3. I look forward to your comments on this paper.
Herbert E. Meyer
Attachment:
As stated
NIC 01924-84
23 March 1984
CL BY SIGNER
DECL OADR
Approved For Release 2009/02/25: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01000020027-3
 Approved For Release 2009/02/25: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01000020027-3
Next 11 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
Approved For Release 2009/02/25: CIA-RDP86M00886RO01000020027-3