LETTER TO FRITZ ERMARTH FROM HAROLD BROWN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86M00886R000600110006-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 21, 2009
• Sequence Number: 6
• Publication Date: November 30, 1984
• Content Type: LETTER

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r C<
The Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute
School of Advanced International Studies
November 30, 1984
c Headquarters
National Intelligence Council
Roan 7E62
Washington, D.C. 20505
A
The Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute -which, as you may know, I
have agreed to chair- is currently sponsoring a Policy Study Group on U.S.-
Soviet relations. The purpose of this group is to review the current state
of U.S. relations with the Soviet Union, and to discuss policy options that
should be considered during the months and years ahead. A list of the members
of the group is enclosed with this letter.
I am writing to invite you to lead the discussion for the second of our
meetings which is scheduled for December 17. More specifically, I would like
to have you speak on the issue of Soviet defense policy in the context of
U.S.-Soviet relations. As you see it, what is the Soviet perception of the
past four years, and what are their current expectations concerning the
resurr tlnn of arms control ne otia ons? To what extent is their preoccupation
with, likely to influence Soviet thinking, and in what direction? Beyond
arms control, can they be induced into a measure of political accanodation
in selected areas -where, or why not? ado we know ofthe-npa c w rich
existing political uncertainties in Moscow has or may have on their current
attitudes an po , what is the Soviet outlook on what prevails
d
now an
what are their long-term security objectives?
These are all questions which our first guest speaker
covered from the perspective of the administration at the time _I first
meeting on November 26. Needless to add, you may choose to address yourself
to same of these questions only, or raise other related questions which you
find more pertinent. In any case, your willingness to be with us on this
occasion, combined with the quality of the group that will attend the meeting,
ensures us of a discussion that will be especially stimulating and constructive.
A few final words about the logistics of the meeting. As indicated, it
will be held on Monday, December 17. We will start at 6:00 p.m. promptly in
Roam 207 at SAIS, and pursue our discussion until approximately 10:00 p.m., with
dinner served at 8:00 in Roan 610. The dinner will be a working dinner, meaning
by this that as coffee is being served, we will resume the debate that will
have been initiated earlier following your remarks. I will chair the meeting,
/ and we will have two rapparteurs who will be taking notes throughout the meeting.
1740 Massachusetts Avenue, M.W., Washington, DC 20036 [phone] / Telex SAIS JHU 64322
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Please give me a call if you need any further information. Cr should
I be out of town, be in touch with Simon Serfaty, the executive director of
the Institute.
With best regards,
Sincerely,
Harold Brown
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? UNCLASSIFIED
"CURRENT SOVIET VIEWS OF US-SOVIET RELATIONS"
Draft outline of proposed remarks at seminar chaired by Harold Brown, Johns
Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute, School of Advanced International Studies
17 December 1984
1. Introduction
Ground rules: personal views, off the record
Scope of talk: survey of the pluses and minus in Soviet eyes,
Moscow's case for political reengagement.
II. Recent history
Optimism in the 1970s.
Uncertainty and growing pessimism from late 1970s onward.
September 1983-November 1984: The year of the deep freeze;
Soviet political calculations; internal factors.
III. Current situation
Soviet political leadership
Economic and social scene
The mixed Soviet foreign policy balance sheet
Current Soviet views of the US and its policies
IV. Outlook
The Soviet political aim: a shifted US national security
policy agenda, recreation (to the extent possible) of the
atmosphere of the early 1970s.
Soviet strengths: Secretive policy apparatus, hot military
production lines, diverse currents in the West.
Weaknesses: Political leadership situation, economic and
techology deficiencies, difficulties in safely translating
military power into political influence.
UNCLASSIFIED
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UNCLASSIFIED
The key variables for Moscow: Internal dynamics (leadership
and economy), Western political trends, changing strategic
"geometry" (e.g. SDI, Ogarkov's line on new technologies),
potential regional crises.
Conclusion: Soviet superpower strategy may be at an historic
cross roads, but it may take years for Moscow to decide on new
directions. In the meantime, it will play the angles.
UNCLASSIFIED
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 ROUTINGtAND REC
VC/NIC
C/NIC
06DEg1984
UEC 1984
NIO/USSR
OFFICER'S
INITIALS
TAKES PLACE /ON 17 DEC 84
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Fritz W. Ermarth
NIO/USSR
7E62 - HQS.
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
NO. NIC #06765-84
3 December 1984
COMMENTS (Number each comment ~to
b whom. Draw a line across cola P)
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